Opinion Poll by Market, 3–12 April 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 28.0% 26.7–29.3% 26.4–29.7% 26.1–30.0% 25.5–30.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 25.0% 23.8–26.3% 23.4–26.6% 23.2–26.9% 22.6–27.6%
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 20.0% 18.9–21.2% 18.6–21.5% 18.3–21.8% 17.8–22.4%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 14.0% 13.0–15.0% 12.8–15.3% 12.5–15.6% 12.1–16.1%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 11.0% 10.1–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–12.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 52 50–55 49–56 49–56 48–57
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 47 44–49 44–50 43–50 42–52
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 37 35–40 35–40 34–41 33–42
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 26 24–28 24–28 23–29 22–30
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 20 19–22 18–23 18–23 17–24

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 1.4% 99.6%  
49 4% 98%  
50 9% 94%  
51 16% 85%  
52 21% 69% Median
53 19% 48%  
54 15% 29%  
55 8% 14%  
56 4% 6%  
57 1.3% 2%  
58 0.4% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100% Last Result
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.7% 99.9%  
43 3% 99.2%  
44 7% 97%  
45 14% 90%  
46 20% 76%  
47 21% 56% Median
48 17% 35%  
49 10% 18%  
50 5% 7%  
51 2% 2%  
52 0.5% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.9% 99.9%  
34 3% 99.0%  
35 9% 96%  
36 20% 87%  
37 18% 67% Median
38 26% 49%  
39 12% 23%  
40 8% 11%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.6% 0.8%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.6% 99.9%  
23 3% 99.4%  
24 11% 96%  
25 22% 85%  
26 26% 63% Median
27 21% 37%  
28 11% 16%  
29 4% 5%  
30 0.9% 1.1%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.2% 99.9%  
18 6% 98.7%  
19 18% 92%  
20 29% 74% Median
21 26% 45%  
22 14% 19%  
23 4% 6%  
24 0.9% 1.1%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 71 99 100% 97–102 96–103 95–103 94–105
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 81 93 79% 90–96 90–97 89–97 88–99
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 102 90 21% 87–93 86–93 86–94 84–95
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 112 84 0% 81–86 80–87 80–88 78–89
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 111 84 0% 81–87 81–88 80–88 79–90
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 67 0% 65–70 64–71 63–71 62–72
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 63 0% 61–66 60–67 59–67 58–69
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 58 0% 55–60 55–61 54–62 53–63
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 47 0% 44–49 44–50 43–50 42–52
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 37 0% 35–40 35–40 34–41 33–42

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0.1% 100% Majority
93 0.2% 99.9%  
94 0.9% 99.7%  
95 3% 98.8%  
96 6% 96%  
97 11% 90%  
98 16% 80%  
99 18% 64% Median
100 18% 45%  
101 13% 28%  
102 8% 14%  
103 4% 6%  
104 2% 2%  
105 0.5% 0.6%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.3% 99.9%  
88 1.0% 99.7%  
89 3% 98.7%  
90 6% 96%  
91 11% 90%  
92 16% 79% Majority
93 20% 63% Median
94 17% 43%  
95 13% 27%  
96 8% 14%  
97 3% 5%  
98 1.5% 2%  
99 0.4% 0.6%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.4% 99.9%  
85 1.5% 99.4%  
86 3% 98%  
87 8% 95%  
88 13% 86%  
89 17% 73% Median
90 20% 57%  
91 16% 37%  
92 11% 21% Majority
93 6% 10%  
94 3% 4%  
95 1.0% 1.3%  
96 0.3% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.5% 99.9%  
79 2% 99.4%  
80 4% 98%  
81 8% 94%  
82 13% 86%  
83 18% 72% Median
84 18% 55%  
85 16% 36%  
86 11% 20%  
87 6% 10%  
88 3% 4%  
89 0.9% 1.2%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.3% 99.9%  
79 1.0% 99.6%  
80 3% 98.7%  
81 6% 96%  
82 12% 90%  
83 16% 78%  
84 19% 62% Median
85 17% 43%  
86 13% 26%  
87 7% 13%  
88 4% 6%  
89 1.4% 2%  
90 0.4% 0.6%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.2% 100%  
62 0.8% 99.8%  
63 3% 99.0%  
64 6% 96%  
65 11% 90%  
66 17% 79% Last Result
67 19% 62% Median
68 19% 44%  
69 13% 25%  
70 7% 12%  
71 3% 5%  
72 1.3% 2%  
73 0.3% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.6% 99.9%  
59 2% 99.3%  
60 5% 97%  
61 10% 92%  
62 15% 82%  
63 20% 67% Median
64 19% 47%  
65 14% 29%  
66 9% 15%  
67 4% 6%  
68 1.5% 2%  
69 0.4% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 1.3% 99.7%  
54 3% 98%  
55 8% 95%  
56 14% 87%  
57 18% 73% Median
58 21% 55%  
59 16% 34%  
60 10% 18%  
61 6% 8%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.6% 0.8%  
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100% Last Result
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.7% 99.9%  
43 3% 99.2%  
44 7% 97%  
45 14% 90%  
46 20% 76%  
47 21% 56% Median
48 17% 35%  
49 10% 18%  
50 5% 7%  
51 2% 2%  
52 0.5% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.9% 99.9%  
34 3% 99.0%  
35 9% 96%  
36 20% 87%  
37 18% 67% Median
38 26% 49%  
39 12% 23%  
40 8% 11%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.6% 0.8%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations