Opinion Poll by Market for ÖSTERREICH, 28 April–3 May 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 16.2% | 28.0% | 26.7–29.3% | 26.4–29.7% | 26.1–30.0% | 25.5–30.7% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 21.2% | 25.0% | 23.8–26.3% | 23.4–26.6% | 23.2–26.9% | 22.6–27.6% |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 37.5% | 21.0% | 19.9–22.2% | 19.5–22.6% | 19.3–22.8% | 18.7–23.4% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 8.1% | 11.0% | 10.1–11.9% | 9.9–12.2% | 9.7–12.5% | 9.3–12.9% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 13.9% | 10.0% | 9.2–10.9% | 8.9–11.2% | 8.7–11.4% | 8.4–11.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 31 | 51 | 49–54 | 48–55 | 48–55 | 47–57 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 46 | 44–48 | 43–49 | 42–50 | 41–51 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 39 | 36–41 | 36–41 | 35–42 | 34–43 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 15 | 20 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 18–23 | 17–24 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 26 | 18 | 17–20 | 16–20 | 16–21 | 15–22 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 47 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 48 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 49 | 9% | 95% | |
| 50 | 16% | 86% | |
| 51 | 21% | 71% | Median |
| 52 | 20% | 50% | |
| 53 | 15% | 30% | |
| 54 | 9% | 15% | |
| 55 | 4% | 6% | |
| 56 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 43 | 6% | 97% | |
| 44 | 12% | 92% | |
| 45 | 19% | 79% | |
| 46 | 21% | 60% | Median |
| 47 | 18% | 38% | |
| 48 | 12% | 20% | |
| 49 | 6% | 8% | |
| 50 | 2% | 3% | |
| 51 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 36 | 8% | 97% | |
| 37 | 16% | 89% | |
| 38 | 22% | 73% | |
| 39 | 22% | 51% | Median |
| 40 | 16% | 29% | |
| 41 | 8% | 13% | |
| 42 | 3% | 4% | |
| 43 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 16 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 17 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 10% | 98% | |
| 19 | 24% | 88% | |
| 20 | 30% | 64% | Median |
| 21 | 21% | 34% | |
| 22 | 10% | 13% | |
| 23 | 3% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 8% | 98.6% | |
| 17 | 22% | 91% | |
| 18 | 31% | 69% | Median |
| 19 | 24% | 38% | |
| 20 | 11% | 14% | |
| 21 | 3% | 3% | |
| 22 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 71 | 97 | 99.8% | 95–100 | 94–101 | 93–102 | 92–104 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei | 102 | 90 | 25% | 87–93 | 87–94 | 86–94 | 85–96 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei | 111 | 85 | 0.1% | 82–87 | 81–88 | 80–89 | 79–90 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 81 | 84 | 0.1% | 81–87 | 81–88 | 80–88 | 79–90 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 112 | 77 | 0% | 74–79 | 73–80 | 73–81 | 71–82 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 66 | 64 | 0% | 62–67 | 61–67 | 60–68 | 59–70 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 86 | 59 | 0% | 56–61 | 55–62 | 55–63 | 54–64 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 97 | 57 | 0% | 54–59 | 53–60 | 53–61 | 52–62 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 46 | 0% | 44–48 | 43–49 | 42–50 | 41–51 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 39 | 0% | 36–41 | 36–41 | 35–42 | 34–43 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0.6% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 93 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 94 | 5% | 97% | |
| 95 | 9% | 92% | |
| 96 | 15% | 83% | |
| 97 | 18% | 68% | Median |
| 98 | 19% | 50% | |
| 99 | 14% | 31% | |
| 100 | 9% | 18% | |
| 101 | 5% | 8% | |
| 102 | 2% | 3% | |
| 103 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 104 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 85 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 86 | 3% | 98.5% | |
| 87 | 7% | 96% | |
| 88 | 12% | 89% | |
| 89 | 17% | 77% | |
| 90 | 19% | 60% | Median |
| 91 | 16% | 41% | |
| 92 | 12% | 25% | Majority |
| 93 | 8% | 13% | |
| 94 | 3% | 5% | |
| 95 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 96 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 97 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 80 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 81 | 5% | 97% | |
| 82 | 9% | 92% | |
| 83 | 14% | 83% | |
| 84 | 18% | 69% | |
| 85 | 20% | 51% | Median |
| 86 | 15% | 32% | |
| 87 | 9% | 17% | |
| 88 | 5% | 8% | |
| 89 | 2% | 3% | |
| 90 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 79 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 80 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 81 | 7% | 96% | Last Result |
| 82 | 10% | 89% | |
| 83 | 17% | 78% | |
| 84 | 19% | 62% | Median |
| 85 | 17% | 43% | |
| 86 | 13% | 26% | |
| 87 | 7% | 13% | |
| 88 | 3% | 5% | |
| 89 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 90 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 73 | 4% | 98% | |
| 74 | 9% | 94% | |
| 75 | 13% | 85% | |
| 76 | 19% | 72% | |
| 77 | 19% | 53% | Median |
| 78 | 15% | 34% | |
| 79 | 10% | 19% | |
| 80 | 6% | 9% | |
| 81 | 2% | 4% | |
| 82 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 83 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 60 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 61 | 6% | 96% | |
| 62 | 12% | 90% | |
| 63 | 17% | 79% | |
| 64 | 20% | 62% | Median |
| 65 | 17% | 42% | |
| 66 | 13% | 25% | Last Result |
| 67 | 7% | 12% | |
| 68 | 3% | 5% | |
| 69 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 55 | 4% | 98% | |
| 56 | 9% | 94% | |
| 57 | 15% | 85% | |
| 58 | 19% | 70% | |
| 59 | 20% | 51% | Median |
| 60 | 15% | 31% | |
| 61 | 9% | 16% | |
| 62 | 4% | 7% | |
| 63 | 2% | 3% | |
| 64 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 53 | 4% | 98.5% | |
| 54 | 8% | 95% | |
| 55 | 14% | 87% | |
| 56 | 18% | 73% | |
| 57 | 21% | 55% | Median |
| 58 | 17% | 34% | |
| 59 | 10% | 17% | |
| 60 | 5% | 7% | |
| 61 | 2% | 3% | |
| 62 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 43 | 6% | 97% | |
| 44 | 12% | 92% | |
| 45 | 19% | 79% | |
| 46 | 21% | 60% | Median |
| 47 | 18% | 38% | |
| 48 | 12% | 20% | |
| 49 | 6% | 8% | |
| 50 | 2% | 3% | |
| 51 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 36 | 8% | 97% | |
| 37 | 16% | 89% | |
| 38 | 22% | 73% | |
| 39 | 22% | 51% | Median |
| 40 | 16% | 29% | |
| 41 | 8% | 13% | |
| 42 | 3% | 4% | |
| 43 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Market
- Commissioner(s): ÖSTERREICH
- Fieldwork period: 28 April–3 May 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 2000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.90%