Opinion Poll by INSA for eXXpress, 2–4 May 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 30.0% 28.2–31.9% 27.7–32.4% 27.2–32.9% 26.4–33.9%
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.7% 19.7–26.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.7% 19.7–26.6%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 55 52–58 51–59 50–60 48–62
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 42 39–45 38–46 37–47 36–49
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 42 39–45 38–46 37–47 36–49
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 17 16–18 16–18 13–18 12–20
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 16 14–18 14–19 13–19 12–21

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.4% 99.8%  
49 1.1% 99.4%  
50 3% 98%  
51 5% 96%  
52 8% 91%  
53 11% 83%  
54 14% 72%  
55 15% 58% Median
56 14% 43%  
57 11% 29%  
58 8% 18%  
59 5% 10%  
60 3% 5%  
61 1.3% 2%  
62 0.6% 0.9%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.6% 99.7%  
37 2% 99.1%  
38 4% 97%  
39 8% 94%  
40 11% 86%  
41 16% 75%  
42 15% 59% Median
43 17% 44%  
44 10% 28%  
45 9% 17%  
46 4% 8%  
47 2% 4%  
48 1.0% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.6% 99.7%  
37 2% 99.1%  
38 4% 97%  
39 8% 93%  
40 12% 86% Last Result
41 15% 74%  
42 16% 59% Median
43 15% 43%  
44 12% 29%  
45 7% 16%  
46 5% 9%  
47 2% 4%  
48 1.1% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 2% 99.8%  
13 1.1% 98%  
14 0.1% 97%  
15 0.1% 97% Last Result
16 13% 97%  
17 65% 84% Median
18 18% 19%  
19 0.3% 0.8%  
20 0% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.5%  
22 0.4% 0.4%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.7% 99.9%  
13 4% 99.2%  
14 12% 95%  
15 20% 83%  
16 26% 63% Median
17 20% 37%  
18 10% 17%  
19 5% 7%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.4% 0.6%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 71 97 98% 93–101 92–102 92–103 90–105
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 102 97 97% 93–101 92–102 91–103 90–105
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 111 84 0.5% 81–88 79–89 79–90 77–92
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 75 0% 71–79 70–80 70–81 68–82
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 75 0% 72–79 70–80 70–81 68–82
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 59 0% 56–62 55–63 54–64 52–66
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 58 0% 55–62 54–63 53–63 52–65
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 58 0% 55–62 54–63 53–63 52–65
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 42 0% 39–45 38–46 37–47 36–49
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 42 0% 39–45 38–46 37–47 36–49

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.3% 99.9%  
90 0.6% 99.6%  
91 1.4% 99.0%  
92 3% 98% Majority
93 5% 94%  
94 7% 90%  
95 10% 83%  
96 14% 73%  
97 14% 58% Median
98 12% 44%  
99 11% 33%  
100 10% 22%  
101 6% 12%  
102 3% 6%  
103 2% 3%  
104 1.0% 1.5%  
105 0.4% 0.5%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.3% 99.9%  
90 0.7% 99.6%  
91 1.4% 98.9%  
92 3% 97% Majority
93 5% 95%  
94 7% 89%  
95 10% 82%  
96 14% 73%  
97 14% 59% Median
98 12% 45%  
99 11% 32%  
100 9% 21%  
101 6% 12%  
102 3% 6% Last Result
103 2% 3%  
104 0.9% 1.5%  
105 0.3% 0.5%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.3% 99.9%  
77 0.6% 99.6%  
78 1.1% 99.0%  
79 4% 98%  
80 2% 94%  
81 10% 92%  
82 8% 81%  
83 13% 73%  
84 15% 60% Median
85 9% 45%  
86 16% 36%  
87 5% 20%  
88 8% 14%  
89 3% 7%  
90 2% 3%  
91 1.1% 2%  
92 0.2% 0.5% Majority
93 0.2% 0.3%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.6% 99.7%  
69 1.4% 99.0%  
70 3% 98%  
71 5% 95%  
72 8% 90%  
73 10% 82%  
74 13% 71%  
75 14% 58% Median
76 13% 44%  
77 12% 31%  
78 8% 19%  
79 6% 12%  
80 3% 6%  
81 2% 3% Last Result
82 0.8% 1.3%  
83 0.3% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.6% 99.7%  
69 1.4% 99.1%  
70 3% 98%  
71 5% 95%  
72 8% 90%  
73 11% 82%  
74 13% 71%  
75 14% 58% Median
76 14% 44%  
77 11% 30%  
78 9% 20%  
79 5% 11%  
80 3% 6%  
81 2% 3%  
82 0.8% 1.3%  
83 0.3% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.4% 99.7%  
53 0.9% 99.4%  
54 2% 98%  
55 4% 96%  
56 7% 93%  
57 11% 85%  
58 15% 74%  
59 15% 59% Median
60 16% 43%  
61 11% 27%  
62 8% 16%  
63 4% 8%  
64 2% 4%  
65 0.9% 1.5%  
66 0.4% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9%  
52 1.0% 99.5%  
53 2% 98.5%  
54 4% 96%  
55 8% 92%  
56 11% 84%  
57 14% 73%  
58 15% 59% Median
59 14% 44%  
60 12% 30%  
61 8% 18%  
62 5% 10%  
63 3% 5%  
64 1.4% 2%  
65 0.6% 1.0%  
66 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.4% 99.9%  
52 0.9% 99.5%  
53 2% 98.6%  
54 4% 96%  
55 7% 92%  
56 12% 85%  
57 14% 73%  
58 15% 59% Median
59 15% 45%  
60 11% 30%  
61 9% 19%  
62 5% 10%  
63 3% 5%  
64 1.4% 2%  
65 0.6% 1.0%  
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.6% 99.7%  
37 2% 99.1%  
38 4% 97%  
39 8% 93%  
40 12% 86% Last Result
41 15% 74%  
42 16% 59% Median
43 15% 43%  
44 12% 29%  
45 7% 16%  
46 5% 9%  
47 2% 4%  
48 1.1% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.6% 99.7%  
37 2% 99.1%  
38 4% 97%  
39 8% 94%  
40 11% 86%  
41 16% 75%  
42 15% 59% Median
43 17% 44%  
44 10% 28%  
45 9% 17%  
46 4% 8%  
47 2% 4%  
48 1.0% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations