Opinion Poll by Market for ÖSTERREICH, 28 April–10 May 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 16.2% | 26.0% | 24.8–27.3% | 24.4–27.7% | 24.1–28.0% | 23.5–28.6% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 21.2% | 25.0% | 23.8–26.3% | 23.4–26.6% | 23.2–26.9% | 22.6–27.6% |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 37.5% | 21.0% | 19.9–22.2% | 19.5–22.6% | 19.3–22.8% | 18.7–23.4% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 13.9% | 12.0% | 11.1–13.0% | 10.9–13.3% | 10.6–13.5% | 10.2–14.0% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 8.1% | 10.0% | 9.2–10.9% | 8.9–11.2% | 8.7–11.4% | 8.4–11.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 31 | 48 | 45–50 | 45–51 | 44–51 | 43–53 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 46 | 44–48 | 43–49 | 42–50 | 41–51 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 39 | 36–41 | 36–41 | 35–42 | 34–43 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 26 | 22 | 20–24 | 20–24 | 19–25 | 18–25 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 15 | 18 | 17–20 | 16–20 | 16–21 | 15–21 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 44 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 45 | 7% | 97% | |
| 46 | 13% | 90% | |
| 47 | 20% | 76% | |
| 48 | 20% | 56% | Median |
| 49 | 18% | 36% | |
| 50 | 10% | 18% | |
| 51 | 5% | 7% | |
| 52 | 2% | 2% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 43 | 6% | 97% | |
| 44 | 12% | 91% | |
| 45 | 19% | 79% | |
| 46 | 22% | 60% | Median |
| 47 | 18% | 38% | |
| 48 | 12% | 20% | |
| 49 | 5% | 8% | |
| 50 | 2% | 3% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 36 | 8% | 97% | |
| 37 | 16% | 89% | |
| 38 | 22% | 73% | |
| 39 | 22% | 50% | Median |
| 40 | 16% | 28% | |
| 41 | 8% | 12% | |
| 42 | 3% | 4% | |
| 43 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 19 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 20 | 12% | 96% | |
| 21 | 25% | 84% | |
| 22 | 29% | 59% | Median |
| 23 | 19% | 30% | |
| 24 | 8% | 11% | |
| 25 | 2% | 3% | |
| 26 | 0.4% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 27 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 1.4% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 16 | 8% | 98.5% | |
| 17 | 22% | 91% | |
| 18 | 31% | 69% | Median |
| 19 | 24% | 38% | |
| 20 | 11% | 14% | |
| 21 | 3% | 3% | |
| 22 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 71 | 94 | 86% | 91–96 | 90–97 | 90–98 | 88–99 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 81 | 86 | 0.4% | 83–89 | 82–89 | 82–90 | 81–91 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei | 102 | 86 | 0.7% | 84–89 | 83–90 | 82–90 | 81–92 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei | 111 | 84 | 0% | 82–87 | 81–88 | 80–89 | 79–90 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 112 | 78 | 0% | 76–81 | 75–82 | 74–83 | 73–84 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 66 | 68 | 0% | 65–70 | 64–71 | 64–72 | 63–73 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 97 | 60 | 0% | 58–63 | 57–64 | 57–64 | 55–65 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 86 | 57 | 0% | 54–59 | 53–60 | 53–61 | 52–62 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 46 | 0% | 44–48 | 43–49 | 42–50 | 41–51 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 39 | 0% | 36–41 | 36–41 | 35–42 | 34–43 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 90 | 4% | 98% | |
| 91 | 8% | 94% | |
| 92 | 13% | 86% | Majority |
| 93 | 17% | 73% | |
| 94 | 20% | 56% | Median |
| 95 | 16% | 36% | |
| 96 | 11% | 20% | |
| 97 | 5% | 9% | |
| 98 | 2% | 4% | |
| 99 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 100 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 1.3% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 82 | 3% | 98% | |
| 83 | 7% | 95% | |
| 84 | 12% | 88% | |
| 85 | 17% | 75% | |
| 86 | 18% | 58% | Median |
| 87 | 17% | 40% | |
| 88 | 11% | 23% | |
| 89 | 7% | 11% | |
| 90 | 3% | 5% | |
| 91 | 1.1% | 1.5% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 0.4% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 82 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 83 | 5% | 97% | |
| 84 | 10% | 91% | |
| 85 | 16% | 81% | |
| 86 | 18% | 65% | |
| 87 | 18% | 47% | Median |
| 88 | 14% | 29% | |
| 89 | 8% | 15% | |
| 90 | 4% | 7% | |
| 91 | 2% | 2% | |
| 92 | 0.5% | 0.7% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 80 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 81 | 5% | 97% | |
| 82 | 10% | 92% | |
| 83 | 14% | 83% | |
| 84 | 19% | 69% | |
| 85 | 19% | 50% | Median |
| 86 | 14% | 31% | |
| 87 | 10% | 17% | |
| 88 | 5% | 7% | |
| 89 | 2% | 3% | |
| 90 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 74 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 75 | 4% | 97% | |
| 76 | 9% | 93% | |
| 77 | 15% | 84% | |
| 78 | 20% | 69% | |
| 79 | 18% | 49% | Median |
| 80 | 14% | 31% | |
| 81 | 9% | 17% | |
| 82 | 5% | 8% | |
| 83 | 2% | 3% | |
| 84 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 1.2% | 99.6% | |
| 64 | 3% | 98% | |
| 65 | 8% | 95% | |
| 66 | 13% | 87% | Last Result |
| 67 | 19% | 74% | |
| 68 | 19% | 56% | Median |
| 69 | 17% | 37% | |
| 70 | 10% | 20% | |
| 71 | 6% | 9% | |
| 72 | 2% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 57 | 4% | 98% | |
| 58 | 9% | 93% | |
| 59 | 16% | 84% | |
| 60 | 22% | 67% | |
| 61 | 19% | 46% | Median |
| 62 | 12% | 27% | |
| 63 | 8% | 14% | |
| 64 | 4% | 6% | |
| 65 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 53 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 54 | 8% | 95% | |
| 55 | 14% | 87% | |
| 56 | 20% | 73% | |
| 57 | 19% | 53% | Median |
| 58 | 16% | 33% | |
| 59 | 10% | 18% | |
| 60 | 4% | 7% | |
| 61 | 2% | 3% | |
| 62 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 43 | 6% | 97% | |
| 44 | 12% | 91% | |
| 45 | 19% | 79% | |
| 46 | 22% | 60% | Median |
| 47 | 18% | 38% | |
| 48 | 12% | 20% | |
| 49 | 5% | 8% | |
| 50 | 2% | 3% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 36 | 8% | 97% | |
| 37 | 16% | 89% | |
| 38 | 22% | 73% | |
| 39 | 22% | 50% | Median |
| 40 | 16% | 28% | |
| 41 | 8% | 12% | |
| 42 | 3% | 4% | |
| 43 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Market
- Commissioner(s): ÖSTERREICH
- Fieldwork period: 28 April–10 May 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 2000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.14%