Opinion Poll by Unique Research for profil, 8–11 May 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 29.0% 27.0–31.1% 26.4–31.7% 26.0–32.3% 25.0–33.3%
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 23.0% 21.2–25.0% 20.7–25.6% 20.2–26.0% 19.4–27.0%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 23.0% 21.2–25.0% 20.7–25.6% 20.2–26.0% 19.4–27.0%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 10.0% 8.7–11.5% 8.4–11.9% 8.1–12.3% 7.5–13.0%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 9.0% 7.8–10.4% 7.5–10.8% 7.2–11.2% 6.7–11.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 53 49–57 48–58 48–59 46–61
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 42 39–46 38–47 37–48 35–50
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 42 39–46 38–47 37–48 35–50
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 18 16–21 15–22 15–22 13–24
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 16 14–19 13–20 13–20 12–22

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 0.6% 99.6%  
47 1.3% 99.0%  
48 3% 98%  
49 5% 95%  
50 7% 90%  
51 11% 83%  
52 12% 72%  
53 15% 60% Median
54 12% 46%  
55 11% 34%  
56 9% 23%  
57 6% 14%  
58 4% 8%  
59 2% 4%  
60 1.1% 2%  
61 0.5% 0.9%  
62 0.2% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.8%  
36 1.1% 99.4%  
37 2% 98%  
38 5% 96%  
39 8% 91%  
40 10% 83%  
41 14% 73%  
42 14% 59% Median
43 13% 45%  
44 12% 32%  
45 8% 20%  
46 5% 12%  
47 3% 6%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.8% 1.3%  
50 0.3% 0.5%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.8%  
36 1.1% 99.4%  
37 2% 98%  
38 4% 96%  
39 8% 91%  
40 11% 83% Last Result
41 13% 72%  
42 15% 60% Median
43 14% 45%  
44 11% 31%  
45 8% 20%  
46 6% 12%  
47 3% 6%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.9% 1.4%  
50 0.3% 0.5%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.4% 99.9%  
14 2% 99.5%  
15 6% 98%  
16 12% 92%  
17 17% 80%  
18 20% 63% Median
19 17% 42%  
20 13% 25%  
21 7% 12%  
22 3% 5%  
23 1.3% 2%  
24 0.5% 0.6%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 1.2% 99.7%  
13 4% 98.5%  
14 10% 94%  
15 17% 84% Last Result
16 21% 67% Median
17 19% 45%  
18 13% 26%  
19 7% 13%  
20 4% 5%  
21 1.3% 2%  
22 0.4% 0.5%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 71 95 89% 91–100 90–101 89–102 87–104
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 102 95 89% 91–100 90–101 89–102 87–104
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 111 84 2% 80–89 79–90 78–91 76–93
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 77 0% 73–81 71–82 70–83 68–85
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 77 0% 73–81 71–82 70–83 68–85
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 60 0% 56–64 55–66 54–67 53–69
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 60 0% 56–64 55–66 54–67 53–69
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 59 0% 55–63 54–64 53–65 51–67
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 42 0% 39–46 38–47 37–48 35–50
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 42 0% 39–46 38–47 37–48 35–50

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 100%  
86 0.2% 99.9%  
87 0.4% 99.7%  
88 1.0% 99.2%  
89 2% 98%  
90 3% 97%  
91 5% 93%  
92 7% 89% Majority
93 9% 81%  
94 11% 73%  
95 12% 61% Median
96 12% 49%  
97 11% 37%  
98 9% 27%  
99 7% 18%  
100 5% 11%  
101 3% 6%  
102 2% 3%  
103 0.9% 2%  
104 0.4% 0.7%  
105 0.2% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0.1% 100%  
86 0.2% 99.9%  
87 0.4% 99.7%  
88 0.9% 99.2%  
89 2% 98%  
90 3% 97%  
91 5% 93%  
92 7% 89% Majority
93 9% 82%  
94 11% 73%  
95 12% 62% Median
96 12% 49%  
97 11% 38%  
98 9% 27%  
99 7% 18%  
100 5% 11%  
101 3% 6%  
102 2% 3% Last Result
103 0.9% 2%  
104 0.4% 0.8%  
105 0.2% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 0.5% 99.7%  
77 0.9% 99.2%  
78 2% 98%  
79 3% 96%  
80 5% 93%  
81 7% 88%  
82 10% 81%  
83 10% 71%  
84 12% 61% Median
85 12% 49%  
86 11% 37%  
87 8% 26%  
88 7% 17%  
89 5% 11%  
90 3% 6%  
91 2% 3%  
92 0.9% 2% Majority
93 0.4% 0.7%  
94 0.2% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.3% 99.8%  
69 0.7% 99.5%  
70 1.5% 98.8%  
71 3% 97%  
72 4% 95%  
73 6% 90%  
74 9% 84%  
75 11% 75%  
76 12% 65% Median
77 12% 53%  
78 11% 41%  
79 10% 29%  
80 7% 20%  
81 5% 12% Last Result
82 3% 7%  
83 2% 4%  
84 1.0% 2%  
85 0.5% 0.9%  
86 0.2% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.3% 99.8%  
69 0.7% 99.5%  
70 1.5% 98.8%  
71 3% 97%  
72 4% 95%  
73 6% 91%  
74 9% 84%  
75 11% 75%  
76 12% 65% Median
77 12% 53%  
78 11% 41%  
79 10% 30%  
80 7% 20%  
81 5% 13%  
82 3% 7%  
83 2% 4%  
84 1.0% 2%  
85 0.5% 0.9%  
86 0.2% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.8%  
53 0.7% 99.5%  
54 1.5% 98.8%  
55 3% 97%  
56 5% 94%  
57 7% 90%  
58 10% 82%  
59 11% 72%  
60 13% 61% Median
61 12% 48%  
62 11% 36%  
63 9% 25%  
64 6% 16%  
65 4% 9%  
66 3% 5% Last Result
67 1.4% 3%  
68 0.7% 1.2%  
69 0.3% 0.5%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.8%  
53 0.7% 99.5%  
54 1.4% 98.8%  
55 3% 97%  
56 5% 94%  
57 7% 90%  
58 10% 83%  
59 12% 73%  
60 13% 61% Median
61 13% 49%  
62 11% 36%  
63 9% 25%  
64 6% 16%  
65 4% 9%  
66 3% 5%  
67 1.4% 3%  
68 0.7% 1.2%  
69 0.3% 0.5%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 0.6% 99.6%  
52 1.3% 99.0%  
53 3% 98%  
54 4% 95%  
55 7% 91%  
56 9% 84%  
57 11% 75%  
58 13% 63% Median
59 13% 50%  
60 11% 38%  
61 9% 26%  
62 7% 17%  
63 5% 10%  
64 3% 6%  
65 1.5% 3%  
66 0.7% 1.3%  
67 0.3% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.8%  
36 1.1% 99.4%  
37 2% 98%  
38 4% 96%  
39 8% 91%  
40 11% 83% Last Result
41 13% 72%  
42 15% 60% Median
43 14% 45%  
44 11% 31%  
45 8% 20%  
46 6% 12%  
47 3% 6%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.9% 1.4%  
50 0.3% 0.5%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.8%  
36 1.1% 99.4%  
37 2% 98%  
38 5% 96%  
39 8% 91%  
40 10% 83%  
41 14% 73%  
42 14% 59% Median
43 13% 45%  
44 12% 32%  
45 8% 20%  
46 5% 12%  
47 3% 6%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.8% 1.3%  
50 0.3% 0.5%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations