Opinion Poll by Market for ÖSTERREICH, 15–16 May 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 26.0% 24.8–27.3% 24.4–27.7% 24.1–28.0% 23.5–28.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 25.0% 23.8–26.3% 23.4–26.6% 23.2–26.9% 22.6–27.6%
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 21.0% 19.9–22.2% 19.5–22.6% 19.3–22.8% 18.7–23.4%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 11.0% 10.1–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–12.9%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 11.0% 10.1–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–12.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 48 45–50 45–51 44–51 43–53
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 46 44–48 43–49 42–50 41–51
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 39 36–41 36–41 35–42 34–43
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 20 19–22 18–22 17–22 17–24
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 20 18–22 18–22 18–23 17–23

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.7% 99.9%  
44 3% 99.2%  
45 7% 97%  
46 14% 90%  
47 20% 76%  
48 21% 56% Median
49 17% 35%  
50 11% 18%  
51 5% 7%  
52 2% 2%  
53 0.5% 0.6%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100% Last Result
41 0.5% 99.9%  
42 2% 99.4%  
43 6% 97%  
44 13% 91%  
45 19% 79%  
46 22% 59% Median
47 18% 38%  
48 11% 19%  
49 5% 8%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.5% 0.7%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.7% 99.9%  
35 3% 99.2%  
36 8% 96%  
37 16% 88%  
38 22% 73%  
39 22% 50% Median
40 16% 28%  
41 8% 12%  
42 3% 4%  
43 0.9% 1.1%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 3% 100%  
18 4% 97%  
19 32% 93%  
20 24% 62% Median
21 25% 37%  
22 10% 12%  
23 1.2% 2%  
24 0.6% 0.6%  
25 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 2% 99.8%  
18 10% 98%  
19 24% 87%  
20 31% 64% Median
21 21% 33%  
22 9% 12%  
23 3% 3%  
24 0.4% 0.5%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 71 94 86% 91–96 90–97 90–98 88–99
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 86 0.4% 83–89 83–89 82–90 81–91
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 102 86 0.7% 84–89 83–90 82–90 81–92
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 111 84 0% 82–87 81–88 80–89 79–90
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 79 0% 76–81 75–82 74–83 73–84
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 66 0% 63–68 63–69 62–70 61–71
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 58 0% 56–61 55–62 55–62 54–64
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 59 0% 56–61 55–62 55–62 54–64
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 46 0% 44–48 43–49 42–50 41–51
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 39 0% 36–41 36–41 35–42 34–43

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.5% 99.9%  
89 2% 99.4%  
90 4% 98%  
91 8% 94%  
92 14% 86% Majority
93 17% 72%  
94 19% 55% Median
95 16% 36%  
96 10% 20%  
97 6% 10%  
98 3% 4%  
99 0.9% 1.2%  
100 0.2% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.4% 99.9%  
81 1.2% 99.5% Last Result
82 3% 98%  
83 7% 95%  
84 12% 88%  
85 17% 75%  
86 19% 59% Median
87 16% 40%  
88 12% 23%  
89 7% 11%  
90 3% 5%  
91 1.1% 2%  
92 0.3% 0.4% Majority
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.2% 99.9%  
81 0.8% 99.7%  
82 2% 99.0%  
83 6% 97%  
84 10% 91%  
85 16% 81%  
86 19% 65%  
87 18% 47% Median
88 14% 29%  
89 8% 15%  
90 4% 7%  
91 2% 2%  
92 0.5% 0.7% Majority
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.2% 100%  
79 0.6% 99.8%  
80 2% 99.1%  
81 5% 97%  
82 10% 92%  
83 15% 83%  
84 18% 68%  
85 18% 49% Median
86 14% 31%  
87 9% 17%  
88 5% 8%  
89 2% 3%  
90 0.6% 0.8%  
91 0.2% 0.2%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.2% 100%  
73 0.6% 99.8%  
74 2% 99.3%  
75 5% 97%  
76 9% 93%  
77 15% 84%  
78 18% 69%  
79 19% 51% Median
80 14% 32%  
81 10% 18%  
82 5% 8%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.7% 0.9%  
85 0.2% 0.2%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.9% 99.7%  
62 3% 98.8%  
63 7% 96%  
64 13% 89%  
65 18% 76%  
66 20% 58% Last Result, Median
67 17% 38%  
68 11% 21%  
69 6% 10%  
70 3% 4%  
71 0.9% 1.2%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 1.5% 99.6%  
55 4% 98%  
56 10% 94%  
57 15% 85%  
58 20% 70%  
59 19% 50% Median
60 16% 31%  
61 9% 15%  
62 4% 6%  
63 1.5% 2%  
64 0.5% 0.6%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 1.3% 99.6%  
55 4% 98%  
56 9% 95%  
57 15% 86%  
58 19% 71%  
59 21% 52% Median
60 15% 31%  
61 9% 16%  
62 4% 6%  
63 1.4% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.6%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100% Last Result
41 0.5% 99.9%  
42 2% 99.4%  
43 6% 97%  
44 13% 91%  
45 19% 79%  
46 22% 59% Median
47 18% 38%  
48 11% 19%  
49 5% 8%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.5% 0.7%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.7% 99.9%  
35 3% 99.2%  
36 8% 96%  
37 16% 88%  
38 22% 73%  
39 22% 50% Median
40 16% 28%  
41 8% 12%  
42 3% 4%  
43 0.9% 1.1%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations