Opinion Poll by Market for ÖSTERREICH, 15–24 May 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 28.0% 26.7–29.3% 26.4–29.7% 26.1–30.0% 25.5–30.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 25.0% 23.8–26.3% 23.4–26.6% 23.2–26.9% 22.6–27.6%
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 21.0% 19.9–22.2% 19.5–22.6% 19.3–22.8% 18.7–23.4%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.3% 10.6–13.5% 10.2–14.0%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.4% 8.4–11.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 52 50–55 49–56 48–57 47–58
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 47 44–49 43–50 43–51 42–52
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 39 37–42 36–42 36–43 35–44
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 22 20–24 20–25 19–25 19–26
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 18 17–20 16–21 16–21 15–22

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0.2% 100%  
47 0.8% 99.8%  
48 2% 99.0%  
49 6% 97%  
50 10% 91%  
51 15% 80%  
52 17% 65% Median
53 18% 48%  
54 13% 30%  
55 9% 17%  
56 5% 8%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.8% 1.1%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100% Last Result
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 1.3% 99.6%  
43 4% 98%  
44 8% 94%  
45 14% 86%  
46 18% 72%  
47 18% 54% Median
48 15% 36%  
49 11% 20%  
50 6% 10%  
51 3% 4%  
52 0.9% 1.2%  
53 0.3% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.5%  
36 5% 98%  
37 12% 93%  
38 18% 81%  
39 20% 63% Median
40 19% 43%  
41 12% 24%  
42 7% 12%  
43 3% 4%  
44 1.0% 1.3%  
45 0.3% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.3% 100%  
19 2% 99.7%  
20 9% 97%  
21 20% 88%  
22 27% 69% Median
23 23% 42%  
24 13% 19%  
25 5% 6%  
26 1.2% 1.5%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.9% 99.9%  
16 6% 99.0%  
17 17% 93%  
18 29% 76% Median
19 27% 48%  
20 15% 21%  
21 5% 6%  
22 1.2% 1.3%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 71 99 99.8% 95–103 94–104 94–105 92–106
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 102 92 50% 88–95 87–96 86–97 85–99
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 81 87 8% 84–91 83–92 82–93 81–94
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 111 86 2% 82–90 82–91 81–91 79–93
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 112 80 0% 76–83 76–84 75–85 73–87
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 65 0% 62–68 61–69 61–70 59–71
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 61 0% 58–65 58–65 57–66 56–67
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 58 0% 55–61 54–61 53–62 52–64
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 47 0% 44–49 43–50 43–51 42–52
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 39 0% 37–42 36–42 36–43 35–44

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0.5% 99.8% Majority
93 1.4% 99.4%  
94 3% 98%  
95 6% 95%  
96 9% 89%  
97 11% 80%  
98 12% 68%  
99 12% 57% Median
100 11% 45%  
101 11% 34%  
102 9% 23%  
103 7% 14%  
104 4% 7%  
105 2% 3%  
106 0.8% 1.1%  
107 0.3% 0.4%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.2% 99.9%  
85 0.8% 99.7%  
86 2% 99.0%  
87 4% 97%  
88 7% 93%  
89 11% 85%  
90 12% 75%  
91 13% 63% Median
92 12% 50% Majority
93 12% 38%  
94 10% 26%  
95 7% 16%  
96 5% 9%  
97 3% 4%  
98 1.1% 2%  
99 0.4% 0.5%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.2% 99.9%  
81 0.9% 99.7% Last Result
82 2% 98.8%  
83 4% 97%  
84 8% 92%  
85 11% 85%  
86 12% 74%  
87 13% 61% Median
88 12% 48%  
89 11% 36%  
90 10% 25%  
91 7% 15%  
92 4% 8% Majority
93 2% 3%  
94 0.9% 1.3%  
95 0.3% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.4% 99.9%  
80 1.3% 99.4%  
81 3% 98%  
82 6% 95%  
83 9% 89%  
84 12% 80%  
85 13% 68%  
86 13% 55% Median
87 12% 42%  
88 11% 30%  
89 8% 19%  
90 5% 11%  
91 3% 5%  
92 1.5% 2% Majority
93 0.5% 0.7%  
94 0.2% 0.2%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.4% 99.9%  
74 1.2% 99.5%  
75 3% 98%  
76 6% 95%  
77 9% 89%  
78 12% 80%  
79 14% 68% Median
80 13% 54%  
81 13% 41%  
82 11% 28%  
83 8% 17%  
84 5% 9%  
85 3% 4%  
86 1.1% 2%  
87 0.4% 0.6%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.6% 99.8%  
60 2% 99.3%  
61 4% 98%  
62 7% 94%  
63 12% 86%  
64 14% 75%  
65 17% 61% Median
66 14% 44% Last Result
67 13% 30%  
68 8% 18%  
69 5% 9%  
70 2% 4%  
71 1.1% 2%  
72 0.3% 0.4%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 1.2% 99.6%  
57 3% 98%  
58 7% 95%  
59 10% 89%  
60 14% 79%  
61 16% 64% Median
62 16% 48%  
63 13% 33%  
64 9% 20%  
65 6% 10%  
66 3% 4%  
67 1.1% 2%  
68 0.4% 0.5%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100%  
52 0.8% 99.8%  
53 2% 99.0%  
54 5% 97%  
55 10% 92%  
56 14% 82%  
57 16% 68% Median
58 17% 52%  
59 14% 35%  
60 10% 21%  
61 6% 11%  
62 3% 5%  
63 1.3% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.6%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100% Last Result
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 1.3% 99.6%  
43 4% 98%  
44 8% 94%  
45 14% 86%  
46 18% 72%  
47 18% 54% Median
48 15% 36%  
49 11% 20%  
50 6% 10%  
51 3% 4%  
52 0.9% 1.2%  
53 0.3% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.5%  
36 5% 98%  
37 12% 93%  
38 18% 81%  
39 20% 63% Median
40 19% 43%  
41 12% 24%  
42 7% 12%  
43 3% 4%  
44 1.0% 1.3%  
45 0.3% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations