Opinion Poll by INSA for eXXpress, 5–7 June 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 30.0% 28.2–31.9% 27.7–32.4% 27.2–32.9% 26.4–33.9%
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 24.0% 22.3–25.8% 21.9–26.3% 21.4–26.7% 20.7–27.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 20.0% 18.4–21.7% 18.0–22.2% 17.6–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 55 52–59 51–60 50–61 48–62
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 44 41–47 40–48 39–49 38–51
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 37 34–40 33–41 32–41 31–43
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 18 16–20 15–21 15–22 14–23
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 16 14–19 14–19 13–20 12–21

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.4% 99.8%  
49 1.1% 99.4%  
50 2% 98%  
51 4% 96%  
52 8% 91%  
53 11% 83%  
54 13% 73%  
55 15% 59% Median
56 14% 44%  
57 11% 31%  
58 9% 19%  
59 5% 11%  
60 3% 6%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.6% 1.0%  
63 0.3% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 0.8% 99.7%  
39 2% 98.9%  
40 4% 97%  
41 8% 92%  
42 11% 85%  
43 15% 73%  
44 15% 58% Median
45 15% 43%  
46 12% 28%  
47 8% 16%  
48 5% 9%  
49 2% 4%  
50 1.0% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.6%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 0.9% 99.7%  
32 2% 98.8%  
33 5% 97%  
34 10% 91%  
35 13% 82%  
36 16% 69%  
37 18% 53% Median
38 13% 35%  
39 10% 22%  
40 7% 12% Last Result
41 3% 5%  
42 1.2% 2%  
43 0.6% 0.9%  
44 0.2% 0.3%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 1.2% 99.8%  
15 5% 98.6%  
16 11% 94%  
17 19% 83%  
18 22% 64% Median
19 19% 41%  
20 12% 22%  
21 6% 10%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.7% 1.0%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.7% 99.9%  
13 3% 99.2%  
14 10% 96%  
15 18% 86% Last Result
16 23% 68% Median
17 21% 45%  
18 14% 24%  
19 7% 10%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.7% 0.9%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 102 99 99.6% 95–103 94–104 93–105 92–107
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 71 92 54% 88–96 87–97 86–98 84–99
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 81 0% 77–84 76–86 75–86 73–88
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 79 0% 75–82 74–83 73–84 71–86
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 71 0% 68–75 66–76 66–77 64–79
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 62 0% 59–66 58–67 57–68 55–70
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 60 0% 57–64 56–65 55–66 53–68
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 55 0% 51–58 50–59 50–60 48–62
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 44 0% 41–47 40–48 39–49 38–51
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 37 0% 34–40 33–41 32–41 31–43

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0.1% 100%  
91 0.3% 99.8%  
92 0.7% 99.6% Majority
93 1.5% 98.9%  
94 3% 97%  
95 5% 94%  
96 7% 90%  
97 10% 82%  
98 12% 72%  
99 13% 59% Median
100 13% 46%  
101 12% 33%  
102 8% 22% Last Result
103 6% 13%  
104 3% 7%  
105 2% 4%  
106 0.9% 2%  
107 0.4% 0.7%  
108 0.2% 0.2%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.2% 99.9%  
84 0.4% 99.8%  
85 0.9% 99.3%  
86 2% 98%  
87 4% 96%  
88 6% 93%  
89 9% 87%  
90 11% 78%  
91 13% 67%  
92 13% 54% Median, Majority
93 13% 41%  
94 10% 28%  
95 8% 18%  
96 5% 10%  
97 3% 6%  
98 2% 3%  
99 0.7% 1.2%  
100 0.3% 0.4%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.4% 99.8%  
74 1.0% 99.3%  
75 2% 98%  
76 4% 96%  
77 6% 93%  
78 9% 87%  
79 12% 77%  
80 13% 66%  
81 13% 53% Median
82 12% 40%  
83 11% 28%  
84 7% 17%  
85 4% 10%  
86 3% 5%  
87 1.4% 2%  
88 0.6% 1.0%  
89 0.3% 0.4%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.5% 99.7%  
72 1.1% 99.3%  
73 2% 98%  
74 4% 96%  
75 7% 92%  
76 9% 85%  
77 12% 76%  
78 13% 64% Median
79 14% 51%  
80 12% 37%  
81 10% 26%  
82 7% 16%  
83 4% 9%  
84 2% 5%  
85 1.2% 2%  
86 0.5% 0.9%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.3% 99.9%  
64 0.6% 99.6%  
65 1.4% 99.1%  
66 3% 98%  
67 5% 95%  
68 8% 90%  
69 11% 82%  
70 13% 71%  
71 13% 58% Median
72 14% 46%  
73 11% 32%  
74 8% 21%  
75 6% 12%  
76 3% 7%  
77 2% 3%  
78 0.8% 1.4%  
79 0.4% 0.6%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1% Last Result
82 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.5% 99.8%  
56 1.2% 99.3%  
57 3% 98%  
58 5% 96%  
59 7% 91%  
60 10% 84%  
61 13% 73%  
62 14% 60% Median
63 13% 46%  
64 12% 32%  
65 8% 21%  
66 6% 12%  
67 3% 6%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.8% 1.3%  
70 0.3% 0.5%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.4% 99.8%  
54 1.0% 99.4%  
55 2% 98%  
56 4% 96%  
57 7% 92%  
58 10% 86%  
59 13% 75%  
60 14% 62% Median
61 14% 48%  
62 12% 34%  
63 9% 22%  
64 6% 13%  
65 4% 7%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.9% 1.4%  
68 0.4% 0.5%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.5% 99.7%  
49 1.4% 99.2%  
50 3% 98%  
51 6% 95%  
52 9% 89%  
53 12% 81%  
54 14% 69%  
55 15% 54% Median
56 13% 40%  
57 11% 27%  
58 7% 16%  
59 4% 9%  
60 3% 4%  
61 1.1% 2%  
62 0.5% 0.8%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 0.8% 99.7%  
39 2% 98.9%  
40 4% 97%  
41 8% 92%  
42 11% 85%  
43 15% 73%  
44 15% 58% Median
45 15% 43%  
46 12% 28%  
47 8% 16%  
48 5% 9%  
49 2% 4%  
50 1.0% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.6%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 0.9% 99.7%  
32 2% 98.8%  
33 5% 97%  
34 10% 91%  
35 13% 82%  
36 16% 69%  
37 18% 53% Median
38 13% 35%  
39 10% 22%  
40 7% 12% Last Result
41 3% 5%  
42 1.2% 2%  
43 0.6% 0.9%  
44 0.2% 0.3%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations