Opinion Poll by INSA for eXXpress, 4–6 July 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 32.0% 30.1–33.9% 29.6–34.5% 29.2–35.0% 28.3–35.9%
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.7% 19.7–26.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 22.0% 20.4–23.7% 19.9–24.2% 19.5–24.7% 18.8–25.5%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 59 55–63 54–64 54–65 52–67
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 42 39–46 38–47 37–47 36–49
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 40 37–44 36–45 36–45 34–47
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 17 14–18 14–18 14–20 13–21
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 16 14–19 14–19 13–20 12–21

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.6% 99.7%  
53 1.4% 99.1%  
54 3% 98%  
55 5% 95%  
56 8% 89%  
57 11% 81%  
58 14% 70%  
59 14% 56% Median
60 13% 42%  
61 11% 29%  
62 8% 18%  
63 5% 10%  
64 3% 6%  
65 1.5% 3%  
66 0.7% 1.2%  
67 0.3% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.6% 99.8%  
37 2% 99.2%  
38 4% 97%  
39 7% 94%  
40 11% 87%  
41 14% 76%  
42 16% 62% Median
43 15% 46%  
44 13% 31%  
45 9% 19%  
46 5% 10%  
47 3% 5%  
48 1.3% 2%  
49 0.6% 0.9%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.8%  
35 1.4% 99.4%  
36 3% 98%  
37 6% 95%  
38 11% 89%  
39 14% 78%  
40 16% 64% Last Result, Median
41 16% 48%  
42 13% 33%  
43 9% 20%  
44 6% 11%  
45 3% 5%  
46 1.4% 2%  
47 0.6% 0.9%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0% 99.8%  
13 0.8% 99.8%  
14 27% 99.1%  
15 5% 72% Last Result
16 0.4% 67%  
17 46% 66% Median
18 16% 21%  
19 0.2% 5%  
20 3% 4%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.8% 99.9%  
13 3% 99.2%  
14 9% 96%  
15 18% 86%  
16 23% 68% Median
17 22% 46%  
18 13% 24%  
19 7% 11%  
20 3% 4%  
21 0.8% 1.1%  
22 0.2% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 102 101 99.9% 97–105 96–107 95–108 93–110
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 71 99 99.5% 95–103 94–105 93–106 92–108
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 83 0.4% 79–87 78–88 77–89 75–91
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 75 0% 71–79 70–80 69–81 68–83
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 73 0% 69–77 68–78 67–79 66–81
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 59 0% 55–62 54–63 53–64 52–66
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 59 0% 55–62 54–63 53–64 51–66
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 57 0% 53–60 52–61 51–62 50–64
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 42 0% 39–46 38–47 37–47 36–49
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 40 0% 37–44 36–45 36–45 34–47

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0% 100%  
92 0.1% 99.9% Majority
93 0.3% 99.8%  
94 0.8% 99.5%  
95 2% 98.7%  
96 3% 97%  
97 5% 94%  
98 8% 89%  
99 10% 81%  
100 12% 71%  
101 13% 59% Median
102 12% 46% Last Result
103 11% 34%  
104 8% 23%  
105 6% 14%  
106 4% 9%  
107 2% 5%  
108 1.3% 3%  
109 0.7% 2%  
110 0.4% 0.8%  
111 0.2% 0.4%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 100%  
91 0.3% 99.8%  
92 0.7% 99.5% Majority
93 1.5% 98.9%  
94 3% 97%  
95 5% 95%  
96 7% 90%  
97 10% 82%  
98 12% 73%  
99 13% 61% Median
100 12% 48%  
101 11% 35%  
102 9% 24%  
103 6% 16%  
104 4% 10%  
105 3% 5%  
106 1.3% 3%  
107 0.8% 2%  
108 0.4% 0.9%  
109 0.2% 0.5%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.5% 99.7%  
76 1.1% 99.3%  
77 2% 98%  
78 4% 96%  
79 6% 92%  
80 9% 86%  
81 12% 77%  
82 13% 65% Median
83 13% 52%  
84 12% 40%  
85 9% 27%  
86 7% 18%  
87 4% 11%  
88 3% 6%  
89 2% 3%  
90 0.9% 2%  
91 0.4% 0.8%  
92 0.2% 0.4% Majority
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.8%  
68 0.8% 99.5%  
69 2% 98.7%  
70 3% 97%  
71 6% 94%  
72 8% 88%  
73 11% 80%  
74 13% 69%  
75 13% 56% Median
76 12% 43%  
77 10% 31%  
78 8% 20%  
79 5% 12%  
80 3% 7%  
81 2% 4%  
82 1.0% 2%  
83 0.5% 0.9%  
84 0.2% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.3% 99.9%  
66 0.7% 99.6%  
67 2% 98.9%  
68 3% 97%  
69 5% 95%  
70 8% 89%  
71 11% 81%  
72 13% 70%  
73 13% 58% Median
74 13% 45%  
75 11% 32%  
76 8% 21%  
77 6% 13%  
78 3% 8%  
79 2% 4%  
80 1.1% 2%  
81 0.6% 1.0% Last Result
82 0.3% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9%  
52 0.8% 99.5%  
53 2% 98.7%  
54 4% 97%  
55 6% 93%  
56 9% 87%  
57 12% 77%  
58 14% 65% Median
59 14% 52%  
60 12% 38%  
61 10% 25%  
62 7% 16%  
63 4% 9%  
64 2% 5%  
65 1.2% 2%  
66 0.6% 1.0%  
67 0.3% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.4% 99.9%  
52 0.9% 99.5%  
53 2% 98.6%  
54 4% 97%  
55 6% 93%  
56 9% 86%  
57 12% 77%  
58 13% 65%  
59 14% 52% Median
60 12% 38%  
61 10% 26%  
62 7% 16%  
63 4% 9%  
64 2% 5%  
65 1.2% 2%  
66 0.6% 1.0%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.7% 99.7%  
51 2% 99.0%  
52 3% 97%  
53 6% 94%  
54 9% 88%  
55 12% 79%  
56 14% 67% Median
57 14% 54%  
58 13% 39%  
59 10% 27%  
60 7% 16%  
61 5% 10%  
62 3% 5%  
63 1.3% 2%  
64 0.6% 1.1%  
65 0.3% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.6% 99.8%  
37 2% 99.2%  
38 4% 97%  
39 7% 94%  
40 11% 87%  
41 14% 76%  
42 16% 62% Median
43 15% 46%  
44 13% 31%  
45 9% 19%  
46 5% 10%  
47 3% 5%  
48 1.3% 2%  
49 0.6% 0.9%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.8%  
35 1.4% 99.4%  
36 3% 98%  
37 6% 95%  
38 11% 89%  
39 14% 78%  
40 16% 64% Last Result, Median
41 16% 48%  
42 13% 33%  
43 9% 20%  
44 6% 11%  
45 3% 5%  
46 1.4% 2%  
47 0.6% 0.9%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations