Opinion Poll by OGM for KURIER, 18–20 July 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 16.2% | 27.0% | 25.1–28.9% | 24.6–29.4% | 24.2–29.9% | 23.3–30.9% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 21.2% | 25.0% | 23.2–26.9% | 22.7–27.4% | 22.3–27.9% | 21.5–28.8% |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 37.5% | 24.0% | 22.3–25.9% | 21.8–26.4% | 21.4–26.9% | 20.6–27.8% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.6–10.7% | 7.3–11.1% | 6.8–11.7% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 13.9% | 9.0% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.6–10.7% | 7.3–11.1% | 6.8–11.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 31 | 50 | 46–53 | 45–54 | 44–55 | 43–57 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 46 | 42–49 | 42–50 | 41–51 | 39–53 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 44 | 41–47 | 40–48 | 39–49 | 38–51 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 15 | 17 | 15–18 | 13–20 | 13–20 | 12–20 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 26 | 16 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 13–20 | 12–21 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 44 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 45 | 4% | 97% | |
| 46 | 7% | 93% | |
| 47 | 10% | 86% | |
| 48 | 12% | 77% | |
| 49 | 15% | 65% | |
| 50 | 14% | 50% | Median |
| 51 | 13% | 36% | |
| 52 | 10% | 23% | |
| 53 | 6% | 13% | |
| 54 | 4% | 7% | |
| 55 | 2% | 4% | |
| 56 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 40 | 1.3% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 41 | 3% | 98% | |
| 42 | 5% | 95% | |
| 43 | 8% | 90% | |
| 44 | 11% | 81% | |
| 45 | 15% | 71% | |
| 46 | 13% | 56% | Median |
| 47 | 15% | 43% | |
| 48 | 12% | 28% | |
| 49 | 8% | 17% | |
| 50 | 4% | 9% | |
| 51 | 3% | 4% | |
| 52 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 39 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 40 | 5% | 96% | |
| 41 | 8% | 92% | |
| 42 | 11% | 84% | |
| 43 | 14% | 73% | |
| 44 | 15% | 59% | Median |
| 45 | 14% | 43% | |
| 46 | 11% | 29% | |
| 47 | 8% | 18% | |
| 48 | 5% | 10% | |
| 49 | 3% | 5% | |
| 50 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 13 | 5% | 99.1% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 15 | 41% | 94% | Last Result |
| 16 | 2% | 53% | |
| 17 | 25% | 51% | Median |
| 18 | 18% | 26% | |
| 19 | 0.5% | 8% | |
| 20 | 7% | 8% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 14 | 11% | 96% | |
| 15 | 20% | 86% | |
| 16 | 20% | 65% | Median |
| 17 | 18% | 45% | |
| 18 | 16% | 28% | |
| 19 | 8% | 11% | |
| 20 | 2% | 4% | |
| 21 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 71 | 95 | 90% | 91–99 | 90–100 | 89–101 | 87–103 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei | 102 | 94 | 76% | 90–98 | 89–99 | 88–100 | 86–102 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei | 111 | 90 | 32% | 86–94 | 85–95 | 84–96 | 82–98 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 81 | 79 | 0% | 75–82 | 74–84 | 73–85 | 71–87 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 112 | 77 | 0% | 73–81 | 72–82 | 71–83 | 69–85 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 66 | 62 | 0% | 58–66 | 58–67 | 56–68 | 55–70 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 97 | 60 | 0% | 57–64 | 56–65 | 55–66 | 53–68 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 86 | 60 | 0% | 57–64 | 56–65 | 55–66 | 53–68 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 46 | 0% | 42–49 | 42–50 | 41–51 | 39–53 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 44 | 0% | 41–47 | 40–48 | 39–49 | 38–51 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 88 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 89 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 90 | 3% | 97% | |
| 91 | 4% | 94% | |
| 92 | 7% | 90% | Majority |
| 93 | 9% | 83% | |
| 94 | 12% | 74% | |
| 95 | 13% | 62% | |
| 96 | 13% | 50% | Median |
| 97 | 11% | 37% | |
| 98 | 10% | 26% | |
| 99 | 7% | 16% | |
| 100 | 4% | 9% | |
| 101 | 3% | 5% | |
| 102 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 103 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 104 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 85 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 86 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 87 | 1.3% | 98.9% | |
| 88 | 2% | 98% | |
| 89 | 4% | 95% | |
| 90 | 6% | 91% | |
| 91 | 9% | 85% | |
| 92 | 11% | 76% | Majority |
| 93 | 13% | 65% | |
| 94 | 14% | 52% | Median |
| 95 | 11% | 39% | |
| 96 | 10% | 27% | |
| 97 | 7% | 17% | |
| 98 | 5% | 10% | |
| 99 | 3% | 6% | |
| 100 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 101 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 102 | 0.3% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 103 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 83 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 84 | 2% | 98% | |
| 85 | 3% | 96% | |
| 86 | 6% | 93% | |
| 87 | 8% | 87% | |
| 88 | 10% | 80% | |
| 89 | 12% | 69% | |
| 90 | 13% | 57% | Median |
| 91 | 12% | 44% | |
| 92 | 11% | 32% | Majority |
| 93 | 8% | 21% | |
| 94 | 6% | 13% | |
| 95 | 3% | 7% | |
| 96 | 2% | 4% | |
| 97 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 98 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 72 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 73 | 3% | 98% | |
| 74 | 3% | 95% | |
| 75 | 6% | 92% | |
| 76 | 12% | 86% | |
| 77 | 8% | 74% | |
| 78 | 15% | 66% | |
| 79 | 16% | 51% | Median |
| 80 | 8% | 36% | |
| 81 | 11% | 28% | Last Result |
| 82 | 7% | 17% | |
| 83 | 3% | 10% | |
| 84 | 3% | 6% | |
| 85 | 2% | 3% | |
| 86 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 87 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 69 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 70 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 71 | 2% | 98% | |
| 72 | 4% | 96% | |
| 73 | 6% | 92% | |
| 74 | 9% | 86% | |
| 75 | 11% | 77% | |
| 76 | 13% | 66% | |
| 77 | 13% | 53% | Median |
| 78 | 12% | 40% | |
| 79 | 10% | 29% | |
| 80 | 7% | 19% | |
| 81 | 5% | 11% | |
| 82 | 3% | 6% | |
| 83 | 2% | 3% | |
| 84 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 85 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 57 | 2% | 97% | |
| 58 | 6% | 96% | |
| 59 | 7% | 90% | |
| 60 | 8% | 82% | |
| 61 | 16% | 74% | |
| 62 | 11% | 59% | Median |
| 63 | 13% | 48% | |
| 64 | 15% | 35% | |
| 65 | 5% | 20% | |
| 66 | 7% | 15% | Last Result |
| 67 | 4% | 8% | |
| 68 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 69 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 55 | 2% | 98% | |
| 56 | 4% | 96% | |
| 57 | 7% | 92% | |
| 58 | 10% | 84% | |
| 59 | 12% | 74% | |
| 60 | 13% | 62% | Median |
| 61 | 13% | 49% | |
| 62 | 12% | 36% | |
| 63 | 9% | 24% | |
| 64 | 6% | 15% | |
| 65 | 4% | 8% | |
| 66 | 2% | 4% | |
| 67 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 55 | 2% | 98% | |
| 56 | 4% | 96% | |
| 57 | 7% | 91% | |
| 58 | 10% | 85% | |
| 59 | 12% | 75% | |
| 60 | 14% | 63% | |
| 61 | 14% | 49% | Median |
| 62 | 11% | 35% | |
| 63 | 9% | 23% | |
| 64 | 6% | 15% | |
| 65 | 4% | 8% | |
| 66 | 2% | 4% | |
| 67 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 40 | 1.3% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 41 | 3% | 98% | |
| 42 | 5% | 95% | |
| 43 | 8% | 90% | |
| 44 | 11% | 81% | |
| 45 | 15% | 71% | |
| 46 | 13% | 56% | Median |
| 47 | 15% | 43% | |
| 48 | 12% | 28% | |
| 49 | 8% | 17% | |
| 50 | 4% | 9% | |
| 51 | 3% | 4% | |
| 52 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 39 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 40 | 5% | 96% | |
| 41 | 8% | 92% | |
| 42 | 11% | 84% | |
| 43 | 14% | 73% | |
| 44 | 15% | 59% | Median |
| 45 | 14% | 43% | |
| 46 | 11% | 29% | |
| 47 | 8% | 18% | |
| 48 | 5% | 10% | |
| 49 | 3% | 5% | |
| 50 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: OGM
- Commissioner(s): KURIER
- Fieldwork period: 18–20 July 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 920
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.56%