Opinion Poll by INSA for eXXpress, 31 July–3 August 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 16.2% | 30.0% | 28.2–31.9% | 27.7–32.4% | 27.2–32.9% | 26.4–33.9% |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 37.5% | 24.0% | 22.3–25.8% | 21.9–26.3% | 21.4–26.7% | 20.7–27.6% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 21.2% | 22.0% | 20.4–23.7% | 19.9–24.2% | 19.5–24.7% | 18.8–25.5% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 13.9% | 10.0% | 8.9–11.3% | 8.6–11.7% | 8.3–12.0% | 7.8–12.7% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.6% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.0–10.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 31 | 55 | 52–59 | 51–60 | 50–60 | 48–62 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 44 | 41–47 | 40–48 | 39–49 | 38–51 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 40 | 37–43 | 36–44 | 36–45 | 34–47 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 26 | 18 | 16–20 | 15–21 | 15–22 | 14–23 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 15 | 14 | 12–17 | 12–17 | 12–18 | 11–19 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 49 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 50 | 2% | 98% | |
| 51 | 4% | 96% | |
| 52 | 7% | 92% | |
| 53 | 11% | 84% | |
| 54 | 14% | 73% | |
| 55 | 15% | 60% | Median |
| 56 | 14% | 44% | |
| 57 | 11% | 31% | |
| 58 | 8% | 19% | |
| 59 | 5% | 11% | |
| 60 | 3% | 5% | |
| 61 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 39 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 40 | 4% | 97% | |
| 41 | 8% | 92% | |
| 42 | 12% | 85% | |
| 43 | 15% | 73% | |
| 44 | 15% | 58% | Median |
| 45 | 15% | 43% | |
| 46 | 11% | 28% | |
| 47 | 8% | 16% | |
| 48 | 4% | 8% | |
| 49 | 2% | 4% | |
| 50 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 36 | 3% | 98% | |
| 37 | 6% | 95% | |
| 38 | 11% | 88% | |
| 39 | 14% | 78% | |
| 40 | 16% | 63% | Last Result, Median |
| 41 | 15% | 47% | |
| 42 | 13% | 32% | |
| 43 | 9% | 19% | |
| 44 | 5% | 10% | |
| 45 | 3% | 5% | |
| 46 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 15 | 5% | 98.6% | |
| 16 | 11% | 94% | |
| 17 | 19% | 83% | |
| 18 | 22% | 64% | Median |
| 19 | 20% | 42% | |
| 20 | 13% | 22% | |
| 21 | 6% | 10% | |
| 22 | 2% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 11 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 12 | 8% | 98% | |
| 13 | 18% | 90% | |
| 14 | 24% | 72% | Median |
| 15 | 23% | 48% | Last Result |
| 16 | 15% | 25% | |
| 17 | 7% | 10% | |
| 18 | 3% | 3% | |
| 19 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei | 102 | 99 | 99.6% | 95–103 | 94–104 | 93–105 | 92–107 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 71 | 96 | 91% | 92–99 | 91–100 | 90–101 | 88–103 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 111 | 84 | 0.8% | 81–88 | 80–89 | 79–90 | 77–92 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 112 | 77 | 0% | 73–80 | 72–81 | 71–82 | 69–84 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 81 | 73 | 0% | 69–77 | 68–78 | 67–79 | 66–81 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 97 | 62 | 0% | 59–66 | 58–67 | 57–68 | 55–70 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 66 | 59 | 0% | 55–62 | 54–63 | 53–64 | 52–66 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 86 | 59 | 0% | 55–62 | 54–63 | 53–64 | 52–66 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 44 | 0% | 41–47 | 40–48 | 39–49 | 38–51 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 40 | 0% | 37–43 | 36–44 | 36–45 | 34–47 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 92 | 0.7% | 99.6% | Majority |
| 93 | 1.5% | 98.9% | |
| 94 | 3% | 97% | |
| 95 | 5% | 95% | |
| 96 | 8% | 90% | |
| 97 | 10% | 82% | |
| 98 | 12% | 72% | |
| 99 | 14% | 60% | Median |
| 100 | 13% | 46% | |
| 101 | 11% | 33% | |
| 102 | 9% | 22% | Last Result |
| 103 | 6% | 13% | |
| 104 | 4% | 7% | |
| 105 | 2% | 4% | |
| 106 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 107 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 108 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 89 | 1.3% | 99.1% | |
| 90 | 2% | 98% | |
| 91 | 5% | 96% | |
| 92 | 6% | 91% | Majority |
| 93 | 10% | 85% | |
| 94 | 11% | 75% | |
| 95 | 14% | 64% | Median |
| 96 | 14% | 50% | |
| 97 | 11% | 37% | |
| 98 | 10% | 25% | |
| 99 | 7% | 16% | |
| 100 | 4% | 9% | |
| 101 | 2% | 4% | |
| 102 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 103 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 77 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 78 | 1.3% | 99.1% | |
| 79 | 2% | 98% | |
| 80 | 4% | 95% | |
| 81 | 7% | 91% | |
| 82 | 10% | 84% | |
| 83 | 12% | 74% | |
| 84 | 13% | 62% | Median |
| 85 | 14% | 49% | |
| 86 | 12% | 36% | |
| 87 | 9% | 23% | |
| 88 | 6% | 14% | |
| 89 | 4% | 8% | |
| 90 | 2% | 4% | |
| 91 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 92 | 0.5% | 0.8% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 69 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 70 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 71 | 2% | 98% | |
| 72 | 4% | 96% | |
| 73 | 6% | 93% | |
| 74 | 9% | 87% | |
| 75 | 11% | 77% | |
| 76 | 13% | 66% | Median |
| 77 | 14% | 53% | |
| 78 | 13% | 39% | |
| 79 | 10% | 26% | |
| 80 | 7% | 17% | |
| 81 | 5% | 10% | |
| 82 | 3% | 5% | |
| 83 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 85 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 68 | 3% | 97% | |
| 69 | 5% | 94% | |
| 70 | 8% | 89% | |
| 71 | 11% | 81% | |
| 72 | 13% | 70% | Median |
| 73 | 14% | 57% | |
| 74 | 13% | 43% | |
| 75 | 11% | 30% | |
| 76 | 8% | 19% | |
| 77 | 5% | 11% | |
| 78 | 3% | 6% | |
| 79 | 2% | 3% | |
| 80 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 57 | 2% | 98% | |
| 58 | 5% | 96% | |
| 59 | 7% | 91% | |
| 60 | 10% | 84% | |
| 61 | 13% | 73% | |
| 62 | 14% | 60% | Median |
| 63 | 14% | 46% | |
| 64 | 12% | 32% | |
| 65 | 9% | 21% | |
| 66 | 6% | 12% | |
| 67 | 3% | 6% | |
| 68 | 2% | 3% | |
| 69 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 53 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 54 | 4% | 97% | |
| 55 | 7% | 93% | |
| 56 | 10% | 86% | |
| 57 | 12% | 77% | |
| 58 | 14% | 65% | Median |
| 59 | 15% | 51% | |
| 60 | 12% | 36% | |
| 61 | 10% | 24% | |
| 62 | 6% | 14% | |
| 63 | 4% | 7% | |
| 64 | 2% | 4% | |
| 65 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 67 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 53 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 54 | 4% | 97% | |
| 55 | 7% | 93% | |
| 56 | 10% | 87% | |
| 57 | 12% | 77% | |
| 58 | 14% | 64% | Median |
| 59 | 15% | 50% | |
| 60 | 13% | 36% | |
| 61 | 9% | 23% | |
| 62 | 6% | 14% | |
| 63 | 4% | 8% | |
| 64 | 2% | 4% | |
| 65 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 39 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 40 | 4% | 97% | |
| 41 | 8% | 92% | |
| 42 | 12% | 85% | |
| 43 | 15% | 73% | |
| 44 | 15% | 58% | Median |
| 45 | 15% | 43% | |
| 46 | 11% | 28% | |
| 47 | 8% | 16% | |
| 48 | 4% | 8% | |
| 49 | 2% | 4% | |
| 50 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 36 | 3% | 98% | |
| 37 | 6% | 95% | |
| 38 | 11% | 88% | |
| 39 | 14% | 78% | |
| 40 | 16% | 63% | Last Result, Median |
| 41 | 15% | 47% | |
| 42 | 13% | 32% | |
| 43 | 9% | 19% | |
| 44 | 5% | 10% | |
| 45 | 3% | 5% | |
| 46 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: INSA
- Commissioner(s): eXXpress
- Fieldwork period: 31 July–3 August 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.59%