Opinion Poll by INSA for eXXpress, 4–7 September 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 16.2% | 29.0% | 27.2–30.9% | 26.7–31.4% | 26.3–31.9% | 25.4–32.8% |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 37.5% | 23.0% | 21.4–24.8% | 20.9–25.3% | 20.5–25.7% | 19.7–26.6% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 21.2% | 22.0% | 20.4–23.7% | 19.9–24.2% | 19.5–24.7% | 18.8–25.5% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 13.9% | 10.0% | 8.9–11.3% | 8.6–11.7% | 8.3–12.0% | 7.8–12.7% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 8.1% | 10.0% | 8.9–11.3% | 8.6–11.7% | 8.3–12.0% | 7.8–12.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 31 | 53 | 50–57 | 49–58 | 48–58 | 47–60 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 42 | 39–45 | 38–46 | 37–47 | 36–49 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 40 | 37–43 | 36–44 | 36–45 | 34–47 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 26 | 19 | 18–20 | 18–20 | 14–20 | 13–23 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 15 | 18 | 16–20 | 15–21 | 15–21 | 14–23 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 48 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 49 | 4% | 96% | |
| 50 | 8% | 92% | |
| 51 | 11% | 84% | |
| 52 | 14% | 74% | |
| 53 | 15% | 60% | Median |
| 54 | 14% | 45% | |
| 55 | 11% | 30% | |
| 56 | 8% | 19% | |
| 57 | 5% | 11% | |
| 58 | 3% | 6% | |
| 59 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 60 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 37 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 38 | 4% | 97% | |
| 39 | 7% | 93% | |
| 40 | 11% | 86% | |
| 41 | 15% | 75% | |
| 42 | 16% | 60% | Median |
| 43 | 15% | 44% | |
| 44 | 12% | 28% | |
| 45 | 8% | 17% | |
| 46 | 4% | 9% | |
| 47 | 3% | 4% | |
| 48 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 1.4% | 99.3% | |
| 36 | 3% | 98% | |
| 37 | 7% | 94% | |
| 38 | 11% | 87% | |
| 39 | 15% | 77% | |
| 40 | 17% | 62% | Last Result, Median |
| 41 | 15% | 45% | |
| 42 | 12% | 30% | |
| 43 | 9% | 18% | |
| 44 | 5% | 9% | |
| 45 | 3% | 4% | |
| 46 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 14 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 15 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 16 | 0% | 97% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 18 | 24% | 97% | |
| 19 | 61% | 72% | Median |
| 20 | 11% | 12% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 1.4% | 99.8% | |
| 15 | 5% | 98% | Last Result |
| 16 | 12% | 93% | |
| 17 | 22% | 81% | |
| 18 | 23% | 58% | Median |
| 19 | 18% | 35% | |
| 20 | 11% | 17% | |
| 21 | 4% | 6% | |
| 22 | 2% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei | 102 | 95 | 90% | 92–99 | 91–100 | 90–101 | 88–103 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 71 | 93 | 75% | 90–97 | 89–98 | 88–99 | 86–101 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 111 | 82 | 0.1% | 79–86 | 78–87 | 77–88 | 75–90 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 112 | 79 | 0% | 75–82 | 74–83 | 73–84 | 71–86 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 81 | 77 | 0% | 73–81 | 72–82 | 71–83 | 70–84 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 97 | 61 | 0% | 58–64 | 57–65 | 56–66 | 54–67 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 86 | 60 | 0% | 57–63 | 56–64 | 55–65 | 53–67 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 66 | 59 | 0% | 56–62 | 55–63 | 54–64 | 52–66 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 42 | 0% | 39–45 | 38–46 | 37–47 | 36–49 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 40 | 0% | 37–43 | 36–44 | 36–45 | 34–47 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 89 | 1.3% | 99.1% | |
| 90 | 3% | 98% | |
| 91 | 5% | 95% | |
| 92 | 7% | 90% | Majority |
| 93 | 10% | 84% | |
| 94 | 12% | 74% | |
| 95 | 14% | 61% | Median |
| 96 | 13% | 48% | |
| 97 | 12% | 34% | |
| 98 | 9% | 22% | |
| 99 | 6% | 13% | |
| 100 | 4% | 7% | |
| 101 | 2% | 4% | |
| 102 | 1.0% | 2% | Last Result |
| 103 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 86 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 87 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 88 | 2% | 98% | |
| 89 | 4% | 96% | |
| 90 | 7% | 91% | |
| 91 | 10% | 85% | |
| 92 | 12% | 75% | Majority |
| 93 | 14% | 63% | Median |
| 94 | 13% | 49% | |
| 95 | 12% | 36% | |
| 96 | 9% | 24% | |
| 97 | 7% | 15% | |
| 98 | 4% | 8% | |
| 99 | 2% | 4% | |
| 100 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 101 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 102 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 76 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 77 | 3% | 98% | |
| 78 | 4% | 95% | |
| 79 | 7% | 91% | |
| 80 | 10% | 84% | |
| 81 | 12% | 74% | |
| 82 | 13% | 62% | Median |
| 83 | 13% | 49% | |
| 84 | 12% | 35% | |
| 85 | 9% | 23% | |
| 86 | 6% | 14% | |
| 87 | 4% | 8% | |
| 88 | 2% | 4% | |
| 89 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 90 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 72 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 73 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 74 | 4% | 97% | |
| 75 | 6% | 93% | |
| 76 | 9% | 87% | |
| 77 | 11% | 79% | |
| 78 | 13% | 68% | |
| 79 | 14% | 54% | Median |
| 80 | 13% | 40% | |
| 81 | 11% | 28% | |
| 82 | 7% | 17% | |
| 83 | 5% | 10% | |
| 84 | 3% | 5% | |
| 85 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 86 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 71 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 72 | 3% | 97% | |
| 73 | 5% | 94% | |
| 74 | 8% | 89% | |
| 75 | 12% | 80% | |
| 76 | 14% | 69% | |
| 77 | 13% | 55% | Median |
| 78 | 13% | 42% | |
| 79 | 11% | 29% | |
| 80 | 8% | 18% | |
| 81 | 5% | 10% | Last Result |
| 82 | 3% | 5% | |
| 83 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 84 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 85 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 55 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 56 | 2% | 98% | |
| 57 | 5% | 96% | |
| 58 | 8% | 91% | |
| 59 | 12% | 83% | |
| 60 | 16% | 71% | |
| 61 | 15% | 56% | Median |
| 62 | 15% | 40% | |
| 63 | 11% | 25% | |
| 64 | 8% | 15% | |
| 65 | 4% | 7% | |
| 66 | 2% | 3% | |
| 67 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 55 | 2% | 98% | |
| 56 | 5% | 96% | |
| 57 | 8% | 91% | |
| 58 | 11% | 83% | |
| 59 | 14% | 72% | |
| 60 | 15% | 58% | Median |
| 61 | 14% | 43% | |
| 62 | 11% | 29% | |
| 63 | 8% | 18% | |
| 64 | 5% | 10% | |
| 65 | 3% | 5% | |
| 66 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 67 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 53 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 54 | 2% | 98% | |
| 55 | 4% | 96% | |
| 56 | 7% | 92% | |
| 57 | 12% | 85% | |
| 58 | 15% | 73% | |
| 59 | 16% | 58% | Median |
| 60 | 15% | 42% | |
| 61 | 12% | 27% | |
| 62 | 8% | 15% | |
| 63 | 4% | 8% | |
| 64 | 2% | 3% | |
| 65 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 37 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 38 | 4% | 97% | |
| 39 | 7% | 93% | |
| 40 | 11% | 86% | |
| 41 | 15% | 75% | |
| 42 | 16% | 60% | Median |
| 43 | 15% | 44% | |
| 44 | 12% | 28% | |
| 45 | 8% | 17% | |
| 46 | 4% | 9% | |
| 47 | 3% | 4% | |
| 48 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 1.4% | 99.3% | |
| 36 | 3% | 98% | |
| 37 | 7% | 94% | |
| 38 | 11% | 87% | |
| 39 | 15% | 77% | |
| 40 | 17% | 62% | Last Result, Median |
| 41 | 15% | 45% | |
| 42 | 12% | 30% | |
| 43 | 9% | 18% | |
| 44 | 5% | 9% | |
| 45 | 3% | 4% | |
| 46 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: INSA
- Commissioner(s): eXXpress
- Fieldwork period: 4–7 September 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.34%