Opinion Poll by IFDD for APA, 1–4 October 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 25.0% 23.1–27.0% 22.6–27.5% 22.1–28.0% 21.3–29.0%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 25.0% 23.1–27.0% 22.6–27.5% 22.1–28.0% 21.3–29.0%
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 25.0% 23.1–27.0% 22.6–27.5% 22.1–28.0% 21.3–29.0%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 14.0% 12.5–15.6% 12.1–16.1% 11.8–16.5% 11.1–17.3%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 8.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7% 6.4–10.0% 5.9–10.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 47 44–51 42–51 41–53 40–54
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 47 45–49 42–52 41–54 40–55
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 47 44–50 43–51 42–53 40–55
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 26 23–29 23–30 22–31 21–32
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 15 13–17 12–18 12–19 11–20

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.6% 99.6% Last Result
41 2% 99.0%  
42 3% 97%  
43 4% 95%  
44 11% 91%  
45 12% 80%  
46 8% 68%  
47 15% 60% Median
48 19% 45%  
49 7% 27%  
50 8% 20%  
51 7% 12%  
52 2% 5%  
53 1.4% 3%  
54 1.2% 2%  
55 0.2% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.4% 99.9%  
40 1.1% 99.5%  
41 2% 98%  
42 2% 96%  
43 1.0% 94%  
44 2% 93%  
45 7% 91%  
46 18% 84%  
47 28% 67% Median
48 23% 39%  
49 8% 16%  
50 1.1% 8%  
51 0.5% 7%  
52 1.4% 6%  
53 2% 5%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.7% 0.8%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.6% 99.7%  
41 1.2% 99.1%  
42 3% 98%  
43 4% 95%  
44 8% 91%  
45 12% 84%  
46 14% 71%  
47 17% 57% Median
48 11% 40%  
49 13% 29%  
50 6% 16%  
51 5% 10%  
52 2% 5%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.5% 1.2%  
55 0.4% 0.6%  
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.3% 99.9%  
21 1.1% 99.6%  
22 3% 98%  
23 7% 95%  
24 11% 88%  
25 16% 77%  
26 17% 61% Last Result, Median
27 16% 44%  
28 12% 28%  
29 8% 16%  
30 5% 8%  
31 2% 4%  
32 0.9% 1.4%  
33 0.3% 0.5%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 2% 99.6%  
12 6% 98%  
13 14% 91%  
14 20% 78%  
15 22% 57% Last Result, Median
16 17% 36%  
17 11% 19%  
18 5% 8%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.6% 0.8%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 71 94 79% 90–98 89–99 87–101 85–103
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 102 94 80% 90–98 88–100 87–101 85–102
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 111 94 82% 90–97 89–99 87–101 85–103
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 88 14% 84–93 83–93 81–95 79–97
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 88 15% 84–92 83–93 81–94 79–97
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 73 0% 69–77 68–79 67–80 65–82
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 73 0% 69–77 68–78 67–79 65–82
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 62 0% 58–66 57–67 56–68 54–70
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 47 0% 44–50 43–51 42–53 40–55
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 47 0% 44–51 42–51 41–53 40–54

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.9%  
85 0.3% 99.7%  
86 0.8% 99.3%  
87 1.3% 98.6%  
88 2% 97%  
89 4% 95%  
90 4% 91%  
91 8% 87%  
92 8% 79% Majority
93 11% 70%  
94 14% 59% Median
95 9% 45%  
96 15% 36%  
97 6% 21%  
98 7% 15%  
99 4% 8%  
100 2% 5%  
101 1.4% 3%  
102 0.7% 1.2%  
103 0.3% 0.5%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.9%  
85 0.3% 99.7%  
86 1.0% 99.4%  
87 1.4% 98%  
88 3% 97%  
89 3% 95%  
90 7% 92%  
91 5% 85%  
92 13% 80% Majority
93 8% 66%  
94 16% 59% Median
95 8% 43%  
96 10% 34%  
97 9% 25%  
98 6% 16%  
99 4% 10%  
100 3% 6%  
101 1.2% 3%  
102 0.9% 1.4% Last Result
103 0.3% 0.5%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.8%  
85 0.4% 99.6%  
86 0.8% 99.2%  
87 1.1% 98%  
88 2% 97%  
89 3% 95%  
90 4% 92%  
91 6% 88%  
92 8% 82% Majority
93 16% 74%  
94 12% 59% Median
95 19% 47%  
96 10% 28%  
97 8% 18%  
98 3% 9%  
99 2% 6%  
100 2% 4%  
101 1.0% 3%  
102 1.2% 2%  
103 0.4% 0.8%  
104 0.3% 0.4%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.4% 99.7%  
80 0.6% 99.3%  
81 2% 98.7% Last Result
82 2% 97%  
83 4% 95%  
84 5% 91%  
85 7% 86%  
86 10% 78%  
87 10% 69%  
88 9% 58% Median
89 16% 49%  
90 7% 34%  
91 12% 26%  
92 4% 14% Majority
93 5% 10%  
94 2% 5%  
95 1.4% 3%  
96 0.8% 1.4%  
97 0.4% 0.6%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.7%  
80 0.7% 99.4%  
81 1.3% 98.7%  
82 2% 97%  
83 3% 95%  
84 5% 92%  
85 8% 87%  
86 7% 79%  
87 15% 72%  
88 9% 56% Median
89 14% 47%  
90 10% 33%  
91 7% 22%  
92 7% 15% Majority
93 3% 8%  
94 2% 5%  
95 1.2% 2%  
96 0.7% 1.2%  
97 0.3% 0.6%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 0.5% 99.6%  
66 1.1% 99.1% Last Result
67 2% 98%  
68 3% 96%  
69 5% 93%  
70 8% 87%  
71 9% 80%  
72 11% 71%  
73 12% 59% Median
74 12% 47%  
75 11% 36%  
76 9% 25%  
77 7% 16%  
78 4% 9%  
79 3% 5%  
80 1.4% 3%  
81 0.7% 1.3%  
82 0.3% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 0.5% 99.6%  
66 1.0% 99.2%  
67 2% 98%  
68 3% 96%  
69 5% 93%  
70 7% 88%  
71 10% 81%  
72 12% 71%  
73 13% 59% Median
74 12% 46%  
75 11% 34%  
76 8% 23%  
77 6% 15%  
78 4% 8%  
79 2% 5%  
80 1.2% 2%  
81 0.6% 1.2%  
82 0.3% 0.6%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.5% 99.7%  
55 1.0% 99.2%  
56 2% 98%  
57 3% 96%  
58 6% 93%  
59 8% 87%  
60 11% 79%  
61 13% 69%  
62 14% 55% Median
63 13% 42%  
64 10% 29%  
65 7% 19%  
66 5% 11%  
67 3% 6%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.9% 2%  
70 0.5% 0.8%  
71 0.2% 0.4%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.6% 99.7%  
41 1.2% 99.1%  
42 3% 98%  
43 4% 95%  
44 8% 91%  
45 12% 84%  
46 14% 71%  
47 17% 57% Median
48 11% 40%  
49 13% 29%  
50 6% 16%  
51 5% 10%  
52 2% 5%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.5% 1.2%  
55 0.4% 0.6%  
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.6% 99.6% Last Result
41 2% 99.0%  
42 3% 97%  
43 4% 95%  
44 11% 91%  
45 12% 80%  
46 8% 68%  
47 15% 60% Median
48 19% 45%  
49 7% 27%  
50 8% 20%  
51 7% 12%  
52 2% 5%  
53 1.4% 3%  
54 1.2% 2%  
55 0.2% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations