Opinion Poll by INSA for eXXpress, 2–5 October 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 29.0% 27.2–30.9% 26.7–31.4% 26.3–31.9% 25.4–32.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.7% 19.7–26.6%
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.7% 19.7–26.6%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 53 50–57 49–58 48–59 47–60
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 42 39–46 38–46 38–47 36–49
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 42 39–45 38–47 37–47 36–49
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 14 13–20 13–21 12–21 12–22
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 18 14–20 13–20 13–21 12–22

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 0.9% 99.6%  
48 2% 98.7%  
49 4% 97%  
50 7% 93%  
51 10% 86%  
52 13% 76%  
53 15% 62% Median
54 14% 48%  
55 12% 33%  
56 9% 21%  
57 6% 12%  
58 3% 6%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.8% 1.3%  
61 0.3% 0.5%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.4% 99.7%  
37 2% 99.3%  
38 4% 98%  
39 8% 93%  
40 9% 85% Last Result
41 10% 76%  
42 19% 66% Median
43 20% 47%  
44 9% 27%  
45 7% 18%  
46 6% 11%  
47 3% 5%  
48 1.2% 2%  
49 0.3% 0.6%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.7% 99.8%  
37 2% 99.1%  
38 3% 97%  
39 7% 94%  
40 11% 87%  
41 13% 76%  
42 18% 62% Median
43 13% 44%  
44 13% 31%  
45 9% 18%  
46 4% 9%  
47 3% 5%  
48 1.3% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.7%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 4% 99.9%  
13 28% 96%  
14 35% 68% Median
15 9% 33%  
16 0.6% 24%  
17 0% 23%  
18 0.1% 23%  
19 4% 23%  
20 12% 19%  
21 7% 7%  
22 0.7% 0.7%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 1.2% 99.8%  
13 4% 98.6%  
14 7% 95%  
15 9% 88% Last Result
16 12% 79%  
17 17% 67%  
18 21% 51% Median
19 16% 29%  
20 9% 13%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.9% 1.0%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 71 96 91% 92–100 91–101 90–102 88–103
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 102 96 91% 92–100 91–101 90–102 88–103
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 111 85 0.9% 81–88 80–89 78–91 77–92
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 75 0% 71–79 70–80 69–81 67–83
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 75 0% 71–79 70–80 69–81 67–82
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 60 0% 55–63 54–64 53–65 51–67
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 57 0% 53–62 52–63 52–65 50–67
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 57 0% 53–62 53–64 52–65 50–67
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 42 0% 39–46 38–46 38–47 36–49
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 42 0% 39–45 38–47 37–47 36–49

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.2% 99.9%  
88 0.6% 99.7%  
89 1.2% 99.1%  
90 2% 98%  
91 4% 95%  
92 6% 91% Majority
93 9% 85%  
94 11% 76%  
95 13% 65% Median
96 13% 52%  
97 12% 39%  
98 10% 27%  
99 7% 17%  
100 5% 10%  
101 3% 5%  
102 1.4% 3%  
103 0.7% 1.2%  
104 0.3% 0.5%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.2% 99.9%  
88 0.6% 99.6%  
89 1.2% 99.1%  
90 2% 98%  
91 4% 96%  
92 6% 91% Majority
93 9% 85%  
94 11% 76%  
95 13% 65% Median
96 13% 52%  
97 12% 39%  
98 10% 27%  
99 7% 17%  
100 5% 10%  
101 3% 5%  
102 1.5% 3% Last Result
103 0.7% 1.2%  
104 0.3% 0.5%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.4% 99.6%  
78 2% 99.2%  
79 2% 97%  
80 4% 96%  
81 9% 91%  
82 5% 83%  
83 15% 78%  
84 12% 62% Median
85 11% 50%  
86 15% 39%  
87 6% 24%  
88 8% 17%  
89 5% 10%  
90 2% 4%  
91 2% 3%  
92 0.5% 0.9% Majority
93 0.3% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.5% 99.7%  
68 1.1% 99.3%  
69 2% 98%  
70 4% 96%  
71 6% 92%  
72 10% 86%  
73 11% 77%  
74 13% 66% Median
75 13% 53%  
76 13% 40%  
77 9% 27%  
78 8% 18%  
79 4% 10%  
80 3% 6%  
81 2% 3% Last Result
82 0.7% 1.2%  
83 0.3% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.4% 99.7%  
68 1.2% 99.3%  
69 2% 98%  
70 4% 96%  
71 6% 92%  
72 9% 86%  
73 11% 77%  
74 13% 65% Median
75 14% 53%  
76 11% 39%  
77 10% 27%  
78 7% 17%  
79 5% 11%  
80 3% 6%  
81 1.5% 3%  
82 0.8% 1.3%  
83 0.3% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 0.4% 99.7%  
52 1.0% 99.3%  
53 2% 98%  
54 3% 97%  
55 5% 93%  
56 6% 89%  
57 8% 83%  
58 10% 75%  
59 12% 65%  
60 13% 53% Median
61 12% 40%  
62 10% 27%  
63 7% 17%  
64 5% 10%  
65 3% 5%  
66 1.2% 2%  
67 0.6% 0.8%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.8%  
51 1.2% 99.5%  
52 4% 98%  
53 7% 95%  
54 6% 88%  
55 9% 82%  
56 17% 72% Median
57 14% 56%  
58 8% 41%  
59 7% 33%  
60 7% 26%  
61 5% 20%  
62 6% 15%  
63 4% 9%  
64 2% 5%  
65 1.3% 3%  
66 1.2% 2% Last Result
67 0.4% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.6% 99.8%  
51 1.3% 99.3%  
52 3% 98%  
53 6% 95%  
54 8% 89%  
55 13% 81%  
56 12% 69% Median
57 13% 57%  
58 9% 43%  
59 8% 34%  
60 6% 26%  
61 6% 19%  
62 4% 13%  
63 4% 9%  
64 2% 5%  
65 2% 3%  
66 0.8% 1.4%  
67 0.4% 0.6%  
68 0.2% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.4% 99.7%  
37 2% 99.3%  
38 4% 98%  
39 8% 93%  
40 9% 85% Last Result
41 10% 76%  
42 19% 66% Median
43 20% 47%  
44 9% 27%  
45 7% 18%  
46 6% 11%  
47 3% 5%  
48 1.2% 2%  
49 0.3% 0.6%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.7% 99.8%  
37 2% 99.1%  
38 3% 97%  
39 7% 94%  
40 11% 87%  
41 13% 76%  
42 18% 62% Median
43 13% 44%  
44 13% 31%  
45 9% 18%  
46 4% 9%  
47 3% 5%  
48 1.3% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.7%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations