Opinion Poll by INSA for eXXpress, 30 October–2 November 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 29.0% 27.2–30.9% 26.7–31.4% 26.3–31.9% 25.4–32.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.7% 19.7–26.6%
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.6% 17.8–24.5%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 53 50–57 49–58 48–59 47–60
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 42 39–45 38–46 37–47 36–49
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 38 35–42 35–43 34–43 33–45
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 18 16–20 15–21 15–22 14–23
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 16 14–19 14–19 13–20 12–21

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.4% 99.9%  
47 0.9% 99.5%  
48 2% 98.6%  
49 4% 96%  
50 7% 92%  
51 10% 85%  
52 13% 75%  
53 14% 62% Median
54 14% 48%  
55 12% 34%  
56 9% 22%  
57 6% 12%  
58 3% 6%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.7% 1.1%  
61 0.3% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.6% 99.8%  
37 2% 99.2%  
38 4% 97%  
39 8% 93%  
40 12% 86% Last Result
41 15% 74%  
42 16% 59% Median
43 14% 44%  
44 11% 29%  
45 8% 18%  
46 5% 10%  
47 3% 5%  
48 1.2% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.7%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.9%  
33 1.2% 99.5%  
34 3% 98%  
35 6% 96%  
36 10% 90%  
37 14% 80%  
38 16% 66% Median
39 16% 50%  
40 13% 33%  
41 9% 20%  
42 6% 11%  
43 3% 5%  
44 1.3% 2%  
45 0.5% 0.7%  
46 0.2% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 1.2% 99.8%  
15 5% 98.5% Last Result
16 11% 94%  
17 19% 82%  
18 22% 64% Median
19 19% 41%  
20 12% 22%  
21 6% 10%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.8% 1.0%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.7% 99.9%  
13 3% 99.2%  
14 10% 96%  
15 18% 86%  
16 23% 68% Median
17 21% 45%  
18 14% 25%  
19 7% 10%  
20 3% 4%  
21 0.7% 0.9%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 71 96 91% 92–99 91–100 90–101 88–103
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 102 92 55% 88–96 87–97 86–98 84–99
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 111 81 0% 77–85 76–86 75–87 73–88
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 81 77 0% 73–80 72–82 71–82 69–84
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 112 73 0% 69–77 68–78 67–79 66–81
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 58 0% 55–62 54–63 53–64 52–66
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 57 0% 53–60 52–61 51–62 50–64
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 55 0% 51–58 50–59 50–60 48–62
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 42 0% 39–45 38–46 37–47 36–49
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 38 0% 35–42 35–43 34–43 33–45

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.2% 99.9%  
88 0.5% 99.7%  
89 1.2% 99.1%  
90 2% 98%  
91 4% 96%  
92 7% 91% Majority
93 9% 85%  
94 12% 75%  
95 13% 63% Median
96 13% 50%  
97 12% 37%  
98 10% 25%  
99 7% 16%  
100 4% 9%  
101 2% 5%  
102 1.3% 2%  
103 0.6% 0.9%  
104 0.2% 0.3%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.2% 99.9%  
84 0.4% 99.8%  
85 1.0% 99.3%  
86 2% 98%  
87 4% 96%  
88 6% 93%  
89 8% 87%  
90 11% 79%  
91 13% 68% Median
92 13% 55% Majority
93 13% 42%  
94 10% 29%  
95 8% 19%  
96 5% 11%  
97 3% 6%  
98 2% 3%  
99 0.7% 1.2%  
100 0.3% 0.4%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.4% 99.8%  
74 1.0% 99.4%  
75 2% 98%  
76 4% 96%  
77 7% 92%  
78 9% 86%  
79 12% 76%  
80 13% 64% Median
81 13% 51%  
82 11% 38%  
83 9% 27%  
84 7% 17%  
85 5% 10%  
86 3% 5%  
87 1.5% 3%  
88 0.7% 1.1%  
89 0.3% 0.4%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.4% 99.8%  
70 1.0% 99.4%  
71 2% 98%  
72 4% 96%  
73 6% 92%  
74 9% 86%  
75 12% 77%  
76 13% 65% Median
77 13% 52%  
78 12% 38%  
79 10% 27%  
80 7% 17%  
81 4% 10% Last Result
82 3% 5%  
83 1.4% 2%  
84 0.6% 1.0%  
85 0.3% 0.4%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.3% 99.9%  
66 0.7% 99.6%  
67 2% 98.8%  
68 3% 97%  
69 5% 94%  
70 8% 89%  
71 11% 81%  
72 13% 69% Median
73 13% 57%  
74 13% 43%  
75 11% 30%  
76 8% 20%  
77 5% 12%  
78 3% 6%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.8% 1.3%  
81 0.3% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9%  
52 0.9% 99.5%  
53 2% 98.7%  
54 4% 97%  
55 7% 93%  
56 10% 86%  
57 13% 77%  
58 15% 64% Median
59 14% 50%  
60 12% 36%  
61 10% 24%  
62 6% 14%  
63 4% 8%  
64 2% 4%  
65 0.9% 2%  
66 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
67 0.2% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 0.7% 99.6%  
51 2% 98.9%  
52 3% 97%  
53 6% 94%  
54 9% 88%  
55 12% 78%  
56 14% 66% Median
57 14% 52%  
58 13% 38%  
59 10% 25%  
60 7% 15%  
61 4% 8%  
62 2% 4%  
63 1.1% 2%  
64 0.5% 0.7%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.6% 99.7%  
49 1.4% 99.2%  
50 3% 98%  
51 6% 95%  
52 9% 89%  
53 12% 81%  
54 14% 69% Median
55 15% 55%  
56 13% 40%  
57 10% 27%  
58 7% 16%  
59 4% 9%  
60 3% 5%  
61 1.2% 2%  
62 0.5% 0.8%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.6% 99.8%  
37 2% 99.2%  
38 4% 97%  
39 8% 93%  
40 12% 86% Last Result
41 15% 74%  
42 16% 59% Median
43 14% 44%  
44 11% 29%  
45 8% 18%  
46 5% 10%  
47 3% 5%  
48 1.2% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.7%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.9%  
33 1.2% 99.5%  
34 3% 98%  
35 6% 96%  
36 10% 90%  
37 14% 80%  
38 16% 66% Median
39 16% 50%  
40 13% 33%  
41 9% 20%  
42 6% 11%  
43 3% 5%  
44 1.3% 2%  
45 0.5% 0.7%  
46 0.2% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations