Opinion Poll by OGM for KURIER, 13–16 November 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 29.0% 27.3–30.8% 26.8–31.4% 26.4–31.8% 25.6–32.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 25.0% 23.4–26.8% 22.9–27.3% 22.5–27.7% 21.7–28.5%
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 21.0–25.2% 20.6–25.7% 19.9–26.5%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 9.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.6–10.5% 7.4–10.8% 6.9–11.4%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.8–9.5% 6.5–9.8% 6.1–10.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 53 50–57 49–58 48–58 47–60
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 46 43–49 42–50 41–51 40–52
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 42 39–45 38–46 38–47 36–49
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 16 14–18 14–19 13–20 12–21
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 14 13–17 12–17 12–18 11–19

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.7% 99.7%  
48 2% 98.9%  
49 4% 97%  
50 7% 93%  
51 10% 87%  
52 13% 76%  
53 15% 63% Median
54 15% 47%  
55 12% 32%  
56 9% 20%  
57 6% 11%  
58 3% 5%  
59 1.5% 2%  
60 0.6% 0.9%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.8% 99.6% Last Result
41 2% 98.8%  
42 5% 97%  
43 9% 92%  
44 12% 83%  
45 15% 71%  
46 15% 56% Median
47 15% 41%  
48 12% 26%  
49 7% 14%  
50 4% 7%  
51 2% 3%  
52 0.9% 1.4%  
53 0.3% 0.5%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.5% 99.8%  
37 1.4% 99.4%  
38 3% 98%  
39 7% 95%  
40 11% 88%  
41 15% 77%  
42 15% 62% Median
43 16% 47%  
44 13% 31%  
45 8% 18%  
46 5% 9%  
47 3% 4%  
48 1.1% 2%  
49 0.3% 0.5%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.6% 99.9%  
13 3% 99.3%  
14 10% 96%  
15 19% 86% Last Result
16 24% 66% Median
17 21% 42%  
18 13% 21%  
19 6% 8%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.5% 0.7%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 2% 99.8%  
12 7% 98%  
13 17% 91%  
14 25% 74% Median
15 23% 49%  
16 16% 26%  
17 7% 10%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.6% 0.8%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 71 99 99.7% 96–103 95–104 94–105 92–107
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 102 96 93% 92–99 91–100 90–101 88–103
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 111 88 14% 85–92 83–93 83–94 81–96
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 81 77 0% 73–80 72–81 71–82 69–84
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 112 73 0% 69–77 68–78 68–79 66–80
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 60 0% 57–64 56–65 55–66 54–67
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 59 0% 55–62 54–63 53–64 52–65
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 57 0% 53–60 53–61 52–62 50–64
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 46 0% 43–49 42–50 41–51 40–52
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 42 0% 39–45 38–46 38–47 36–49

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 100%  
91 0.2% 99.9%  
92 0.6% 99.7% Majority
93 1.2% 99.1%  
94 3% 98%  
95 5% 95%  
96 7% 91%  
97 11% 83%  
98 12% 73%  
99 14% 60% Median
100 13% 46%  
101 12% 33%  
102 9% 21%  
103 6% 13%  
104 3% 7%  
105 2% 3%  
106 0.9% 1.4%  
107 0.3% 0.5%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100%  
87 0.2% 99.9%  
88 0.4% 99.8%  
89 1.0% 99.4%  
90 2% 98%  
91 4% 97%  
92 6% 93% Majority
93 9% 87%  
94 12% 77%  
95 13% 65% Median
96 14% 52%  
97 12% 38%  
98 10% 26%  
99 7% 16%  
100 4% 9%  
101 2% 4%  
102 1.2% 2% Last Result
103 0.5% 0.8%  
104 0.2% 0.3%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.2% 99.9%  
81 0.4% 99.7%  
82 2% 99.3%  
83 3% 98%  
84 3% 94%  
85 8% 91%  
86 14% 84%  
87 10% 70%  
88 10% 60% Median
89 18% 49%  
90 12% 31%  
91 5% 19%  
92 6% 14% Majority
93 5% 7%  
94 1.1% 3%  
95 0.7% 1.4%  
96 0.5% 0.7%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.8%  
70 0.9% 99.5%  
71 2% 98.6%  
72 4% 97%  
73 6% 93%  
74 9% 87%  
75 12% 78%  
76 14% 66% Median
77 14% 52%  
78 13% 38%  
79 10% 25%  
80 7% 16%  
81 4% 8% Last Result
82 2% 4%  
83 1.2% 2%  
84 0.5% 0.8%  
85 0.2% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.6% 99.7%  
67 1.3% 99.1%  
68 3% 98%  
69 5% 95%  
70 8% 90%  
71 12% 82%  
72 13% 71% Median
73 14% 57%  
74 13% 43%  
75 11% 30%  
76 8% 19%  
77 5% 11%  
78 3% 6%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.7% 1.1%  
81 0.3% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 0.9% 99.6%  
55 2% 98.7%  
56 4% 97%  
57 6% 93%  
58 10% 87%  
59 13% 77%  
60 16% 64% Median
61 15% 48%  
62 12% 33%  
63 9% 22%  
64 6% 13%  
65 4% 7%  
66 2% 3% Last Result
67 0.7% 1.2%  
68 0.3% 0.5%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.7% 99.7%  
53 2% 99.0%  
54 4% 97%  
55 6% 94%  
56 10% 87%  
57 13% 77%  
58 14% 65% Median
59 15% 50%  
60 12% 35%  
61 10% 23%  
62 7% 13%  
63 4% 7%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.9% 1.4%  
66 0.3% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.5% 99.8%  
51 1.3% 99.2%  
52 3% 98%  
53 5% 95%  
54 9% 90%  
55 13% 81%  
56 15% 68% Median
57 14% 54%  
58 13% 40%  
59 11% 27%  
60 7% 16%  
61 4% 8%  
62 2% 4%  
63 0.9% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.6%  
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.8% 99.6% Last Result
41 2% 98.8%  
42 5% 97%  
43 9% 92%  
44 12% 83%  
45 15% 71%  
46 15% 56% Median
47 15% 41%  
48 12% 26%  
49 7% 14%  
50 4% 7%  
51 2% 3%  
52 0.9% 1.4%  
53 0.3% 0.5%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.5% 99.8%  
37 1.4% 99.4%  
38 3% 98%  
39 7% 95%  
40 11% 88%  
41 15% 77%  
42 15% 62% Median
43 16% 47%  
44 13% 31%  
45 8% 18%  
46 5% 9%  
47 3% 4%  
48 1.1% 2%  
49 0.3% 0.5%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations