Opinion Poll by INSA for eXXpress, 4–6 December 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 30.0% 28.2–31.9% 27.7–32.4% 27.2–32.9% 26.4–33.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.7% 19.7–26.6%
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 20.0% 18.4–21.7% 18.0–22.2% 17.6–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 55 52–58 51–59 50–60 48–62
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 42 39–45 38–46 37–47 36–49
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 37 34–40 33–41 32–41 31–43
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 19 18–20 18–20 15–20 13–23
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 18 16–20 15–21 15–21 14–23

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.4% 99.8%  
49 1.1% 99.4%  
50 3% 98%  
51 5% 96%  
52 8% 91%  
53 11% 83%  
54 13% 71%  
55 16% 58% Median
56 14% 42%  
57 11% 29%  
58 8% 18%  
59 5% 10%  
60 3% 5%  
61 1.2% 2%  
62 0.6% 0.9%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.7% 99.7%  
37 2% 99.1%  
38 4% 97%  
39 7% 93%  
40 12% 86% Last Result
41 15% 74%  
42 16% 60% Median
43 15% 43%  
44 12% 28%  
45 8% 17%  
46 5% 9%  
47 2% 4%  
48 1.0% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 0.9% 99.7%  
32 2% 98.7%  
33 6% 96%  
34 9% 91%  
35 14% 82%  
36 16% 68%  
37 17% 52% Median
38 14% 35%  
39 10% 21%  
40 6% 11%  
41 3% 5%  
42 1.3% 2%  
43 0.5% 0.7%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.6% 100%  
14 2% 99.4%  
15 0.5% 98%  
16 0% 97%  
17 0.4% 97%  
18 25% 97%  
19 60% 71% Median
20 10% 11%  
21 0.2% 0.7%  
22 0% 0.5%  
23 0.1% 0.5%  
24 0.4% 0.5%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 1.4% 99.8%  
15 5% 98% Last Result
16 13% 93%  
17 23% 81%  
18 23% 58% Median
19 18% 35%  
20 10% 16%  
21 4% 6%  
22 1.5% 2%  
23 0.4% 0.6%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 71 97 98% 93–101 92–102 92–103 90–105
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 102 92 52% 88–95 87–96 86–97 84–99
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 79 0% 75–82 74–83 73–84 71–86
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 111 79 0% 75–82 74–83 73–84 71–86
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 73 0% 70–77 69–78 68–79 66–81
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 61 0% 58–64 57–65 56–66 54–67
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 55 0% 52–58 51–59 50–60 49–62
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 54 0% 51–58 50–59 50–60 48–61
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 42 0% 39–45 38–46 37–47 36–49
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 37 0% 34–40 33–41 32–41 31–43

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.3% 99.9%  
90 0.6% 99.6%  
91 1.4% 99.0%  
92 3% 98% Majority
93 5% 95%  
94 8% 90%  
95 10% 82%  
96 13% 72%  
97 13% 59% Median
98 14% 46%  
99 11% 32%  
100 9% 21%  
101 6% 12%  
102 3% 7%  
103 2% 3%  
104 0.9% 1.4%  
105 0.4% 0.5%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.2% 99.9%  
84 0.4% 99.8%  
85 1.0% 99.3%  
86 2% 98%  
87 4% 96%  
88 6% 92%  
89 9% 86%  
90 12% 77%  
91 13% 65%  
92 14% 52% Median, Majority
93 12% 38%  
94 10% 26%  
95 7% 16%  
96 5% 9%  
97 2% 5%  
98 1.2% 2%  
99 0.6% 0.9%  
100 0.2% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.3% 99.8%  
72 0.9% 99.5%  
73 2% 98.6%  
74 3% 97%  
75 6% 93%  
76 9% 88%  
77 11% 78%  
78 14% 67%  
79 14% 53% Median
80 13% 39%  
81 10% 27% Last Result
82 7% 17%  
83 5% 9%  
84 3% 5%  
85 1.3% 2%  
86 0.6% 0.9%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.4% 99.8%  
72 0.9% 99.4%  
73 2% 98%  
74 4% 97%  
75 6% 93%  
76 9% 87%  
77 12% 78%  
78 13% 66%  
79 14% 53% Median
80 12% 39%  
81 10% 27%  
82 8% 17%  
83 5% 10%  
84 3% 5%  
85 1.3% 2%  
86 0.6% 0.9%  
87 0.2% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.5% 99.7%  
67 1.2% 99.2%  
68 3% 98%  
69 5% 95%  
70 7% 91%  
71 10% 83%  
72 13% 73%  
73 14% 60%  
74 13% 46% Median
75 11% 32%  
76 9% 21%  
77 6% 12%  
78 3% 6%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.8% 1.4%  
81 0.3% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.5% 99.7%  
55 1.0% 99.2%  
56 2% 98%  
57 5% 96%  
58 8% 91%  
59 12% 83%  
60 15% 71%  
61 16% 56% Median
62 15% 40%  
63 11% 25%  
64 7% 14%  
65 4% 7%  
66 2% 3% Last Result
67 0.8% 1.2%  
68 0.3% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.3% 99.8%  
49 0.6% 99.5%  
50 1.4% 98.9%  
51 3% 97%  
52 6% 94%  
53 9% 88%  
54 15% 79%  
55 16% 64%  
56 17% 48% Median
57 13% 31%  
58 9% 18%  
59 5% 9%  
60 3% 4%  
61 1.0% 2%  
62 0.4% 0.6%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.6% 99.7%  
49 2% 99.1%  
50 3% 98%  
51 6% 94%  
52 9% 88%  
53 13% 78%  
54 16% 65%  
55 15% 50% Median
56 12% 34%  
57 10% 22%  
58 6% 12%  
59 3% 6%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.8% 1.2%  
62 0.3% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.7% 99.7%  
37 2% 99.1%  
38 4% 97%  
39 7% 93%  
40 12% 86% Last Result
41 15% 74%  
42 16% 60% Median
43 15% 43%  
44 12% 28%  
45 8% 17%  
46 5% 9%  
47 2% 4%  
48 1.0% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 0.9% 99.7%  
32 2% 98.7%  
33 6% 96%  
34 9% 91%  
35 14% 82%  
36 16% 68%  
37 17% 52% Median
38 14% 35%  
39 10% 21%  
40 6% 11%  
41 3% 5%  
42 1.3% 2%  
43 0.5% 0.7%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations