Opinion Poll by INSA for eXXpress, 8–10 January 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 32.0% 30.1–33.9% 29.6–34.5% 29.2–35.0% 28.3–35.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.7% 19.7–26.6%
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 20.0% 18.4–21.7% 18.0–22.2% 17.6–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 59 55–62 54–63 54–64 52–66
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 42 39–45 38–46 37–47 36–49
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 37 34–40 33–41 32–41 31–43
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 17 14–18 14–18 14–20 13–21
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 16 14–19 14–19 13–20 12–21

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.6% 99.7%  
53 2% 99.1%  
54 3% 98%  
55 5% 94%  
56 8% 89%  
57 12% 81%  
58 14% 69%  
59 15% 55% Median
60 13% 40%  
61 11% 28%  
62 8% 17%  
63 4% 9%  
64 2% 4%  
65 1.2% 2%  
66 0.5% 0.8%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.6% 99.8%  
37 2% 99.1%  
38 4% 97%  
39 7% 94%  
40 11% 86% Last Result
41 14% 75%  
42 16% 61% Median
43 15% 45%  
44 12% 30%  
45 8% 18%  
46 5% 9%  
47 3% 4%  
48 1.2% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.7%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.9% 99.7%  
32 2% 98.8%  
33 5% 96%  
34 9% 91%  
35 13% 82%  
36 16% 68%  
37 17% 52% Median
38 14% 36%  
39 10% 22%  
40 6% 12%  
41 3% 5%  
42 1.4% 2%  
43 0.5% 0.7%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0% 99.8%  
13 0.8% 99.8%  
14 28% 99.0%  
15 4% 71%  
16 0.4% 67%  
17 48% 66% Median
18 14% 18%  
19 0% 4%  
20 3% 4%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.7% 99.9%  
13 3% 99.2%  
14 10% 96%  
15 18% 86% Last Result
16 23% 68% Median
17 21% 45%  
18 13% 23%  
19 7% 10%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.7% 1.0%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 71 101 99.9% 97–105 96–106 95–107 93–109
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 102 95 92% 92–99 91–100 90–101 88–103
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 111 79 0% 75–83 74–84 73–85 71–86
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 75 0% 71–79 70–80 69–81 68–82
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 69 0% 66–73 65–74 64–75 62–77
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 59 0% 55–62 54–63 53–64 52–66
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 53 0% 49–56 49–57 48–58 46–60
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 53 0% 50–56 49–57 48–58 46–60
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 42 0% 39–45 38–46 37–47 36–49
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 37 0% 34–40 33–41 32–41 31–43

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0.1% 99.9% Majority
93 0.4% 99.8%  
94 0.8% 99.5%  
95 2% 98.6%  
96 4% 97%  
97 4% 93%  
98 9% 89%  
99 9% 80%  
100 13% 71%  
101 14% 58% Median
102 12% 44%  
103 13% 32%  
104 7% 20%  
105 6% 12%  
106 3% 6%  
107 2% 3%  
108 0.8% 1.3%  
109 0.3% 0.5%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.2% 99.9%  
88 0.6% 99.6%  
89 1.2% 99.1%  
90 2% 98%  
91 4% 96%  
92 7% 92% Majority
93 10% 85%  
94 12% 76%  
95 13% 63%  
96 13% 50% Median
97 11% 36%  
98 9% 25%  
99 7% 16%  
100 5% 9%  
101 2% 5%  
102 1.3% 2% Last Result
103 0.5% 0.8%  
104 0.2% 0.3%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.8%  
72 0.9% 99.5%  
73 2% 98.6%  
74 3% 97%  
75 6% 93%  
76 9% 88%  
77 11% 79%  
78 13% 68%  
79 14% 55% Median
80 13% 42%  
81 11% 29%  
82 8% 18%  
83 5% 11%  
84 3% 6%  
85 2% 3%  
86 0.7% 1.1%  
87 0.3% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.8%  
68 0.8% 99.5%  
69 2% 98.7%  
70 4% 97%  
71 6% 93%  
72 9% 88%  
73 11% 79%  
74 13% 68%  
75 14% 55% Median
76 13% 41%  
77 10% 28%  
78 8% 18%  
79 5% 10%  
80 3% 5%  
81 1.5% 3% Last Result
82 0.7% 1.2%  
83 0.3% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.5% 99.7%  
63 1.2% 99.2%  
64 2% 98%  
65 5% 96%  
66 7% 91%  
67 10% 84%  
68 13% 74%  
69 14% 61%  
70 14% 47% Median
71 11% 33%  
72 8% 22%  
73 6% 13%  
74 4% 8%  
75 2% 4%  
76 1.1% 2%  
77 0.4% 0.7%  
78 0.2% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.8%  
52 1.0% 99.5%  
53 2% 98.6%  
54 4% 97%  
55 6% 93%  
56 10% 86%  
57 12% 77%  
58 14% 65%  
59 14% 51% Median
60 12% 36%  
61 10% 24%  
62 7% 14%  
63 4% 8%  
64 2% 4%  
65 1.0% 2%  
66 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.5% 99.8%  
47 1.3% 99.3%  
48 3% 98%  
49 5% 95%  
50 8% 90%  
51 11% 82%  
52 14% 71%  
53 14% 57%  
54 14% 43% Median
55 11% 29%  
56 8% 18%  
57 5% 10%  
58 3% 5%  
59 1.2% 2%  
60 0.5% 0.8%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.5% 99.8%  
47 1.2% 99.3%  
48 3% 98%  
49 5% 95%  
50 8% 90%  
51 11% 82%  
52 14% 71%  
53 15% 57% Median
54 14% 42%  
55 11% 28%  
56 8% 18%  
57 5% 10%  
58 3% 5%  
59 1.2% 2%  
60 0.6% 0.9%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.6% 99.8%  
37 2% 99.1%  
38 4% 97%  
39 7% 94%  
40 11% 86% Last Result
41 14% 75%  
42 16% 61% Median
43 15% 45%  
44 12% 30%  
45 8% 18%  
46 5% 9%  
47 3% 4%  
48 1.2% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.7%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.9% 99.7%  
32 2% 98.8%  
33 5% 96%  
34 9% 91%  
35 13% 82%  
36 16% 68%  
37 17% 52% Median
38 14% 36%  
39 10% 22%  
40 6% 12%  
41 3% 5%  
42 1.4% 2%  
43 0.5% 0.7%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations