Opinion Poll by INSA for eXXpress, 22–24 January 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 31.0% 29.2–32.9% 28.7–33.5% 28.2–33.9% 27.3–34.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 22.0% 20.4–23.7% 19.9–24.2% 19.5–24.7% 18.8–25.5%
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.6% 17.8–24.5%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 57 53–60 53–61 52–62 50–64
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 40 37–43 36–44 36–45 34–47
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 38 35–41 35–42 34–43 33–45
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 17 16–18 16–18 13–18 12–20
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 16 14–18 14–19 13–19 12–21

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.6% 99.7%  
51 1.3% 99.2%  
52 3% 98%  
53 5% 95%  
54 8% 90%  
55 12% 81%  
56 14% 69%  
57 14% 55% Median
58 14% 41%  
59 10% 27%  
60 8% 17%  
61 5% 9%  
62 2% 4%  
63 1.2% 2%  
64 0.5% 0.7%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.8%  
35 1.4% 99.3%  
36 3% 98%  
37 7% 94%  
38 11% 87%  
39 14% 76%  
40 16% 62% Last Result, Median
41 15% 46%  
42 13% 30%  
43 8% 18%  
44 5% 9%  
45 3% 4%  
46 1.1% 2%  
47 0.4% 0.6%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.9%  
33 1.2% 99.5%  
34 3% 98%  
35 6% 95%  
36 10% 89%  
37 14% 79%  
38 16% 65% Median
39 16% 48%  
40 13% 32%  
41 9% 19%  
42 5% 10%  
43 3% 4%  
44 1.1% 2%  
45 0.4% 0.6%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 2% 99.8%  
13 1.1% 98%  
14 0.1% 97%  
15 0.1% 97% Last Result
16 13% 97%  
17 65% 84% Median
18 18% 19%  
19 0.3% 0.8%  
20 0% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.5%  
22 0.4% 0.4%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.7% 99.9%  
13 4% 99.2%  
14 12% 96%  
15 21% 83%  
16 25% 62% Median
17 20% 37%  
18 10% 17%  
19 5% 7%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.4% 0.6%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 71 97 98% 93–101 92–102 92–103 90–105
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 102 95 90% 92–99 91–100 90–101 88–103
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 111 79 0% 75–82 74–83 73–84 71–86
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 73 0% 70–77 69–78 68–79 66–81
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 71 0% 68–75 67–76 66–77 64–79
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 56 0% 53–60 52–61 51–62 50–63
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 55 0% 52–58 51–59 50–60 49–62
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 54 0% 51–58 50–59 49–60 48–61
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 40 0% 37–43 36–44 36–45 34–47
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 38 0% 35–41 35–42 34–43 33–45

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.3% 99.9%  
90 0.6% 99.6%  
91 1.4% 99.0%  
92 3% 98% Majority
93 5% 95%  
94 7% 90%  
95 11% 82%  
96 13% 71%  
97 13% 59% Median
98 13% 45%  
99 12% 32%  
100 8% 21%  
101 6% 12%  
102 3% 7%  
103 2% 3%  
104 0.8% 1.4%  
105 0.3% 0.5%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.2% 99.9%  
88 0.6% 99.7%  
89 1.2% 99.1%  
90 3% 98%  
91 5% 95%  
92 7% 90% Majority
93 10% 83%  
94 13% 73%  
95 12% 61% Median
96 13% 48%  
97 12% 35%  
98 10% 23%  
99 6% 13%  
100 4% 7%  
101 2% 3%  
102 1.0% 2% Last Result
103 0.4% 0.6%  
104 0.2% 0.2%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.4% 99.8%  
72 0.9% 99.4%  
73 2% 98%  
74 4% 96%  
75 6% 93%  
76 9% 87%  
77 12% 78%  
78 13% 66% Median
79 14% 53%  
80 12% 39%  
81 10% 27%  
82 7% 16%  
83 4% 9%  
84 2% 5%  
85 1.2% 2%  
86 0.6% 1.0%  
87 0.2% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.5% 99.7%  
67 1.2% 99.2%  
68 2% 98%  
69 4% 96%  
70 7% 91%  
71 11% 84%  
72 13% 73%  
73 14% 60% Median
74 13% 46%  
75 11% 33%  
76 9% 22%  
77 6% 13%  
78 4% 7%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.8% 1.3%  
81 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.5% 99.8%  
65 1.1% 99.3%  
66 2% 98%  
67 4% 96%  
68 6% 92%  
69 10% 85%  
70 13% 75%  
71 14% 62% Median
72 14% 48%  
73 12% 35%  
74 9% 23%  
75 7% 14%  
76 4% 7%  
77 2% 3%  
78 0.9% 2%  
79 0.4% 0.6%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 0.8% 99.6%  
51 2% 98.9%  
52 4% 97%  
53 7% 93%  
54 11% 86%  
55 14% 75%  
56 15% 61% Median
57 14% 46%  
58 12% 32%  
59 9% 20%  
60 6% 11%  
61 3% 6%  
62 1.5% 3%  
63 0.7% 1.1%  
64 0.3% 0.4%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1% Last Result
67 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.3% 99.8%  
49 0.6% 99.6%  
50 1.5% 98.9%  
51 3% 97%  
52 6% 94%  
53 10% 88%  
54 14% 78%  
55 16% 64% Median
56 16% 48%  
57 13% 32%  
58 9% 19%  
59 5% 10%  
60 3% 4%  
61 1.1% 2%  
62 0.4% 0.7%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.6% 99.7%  
49 2% 99.1%  
50 4% 97%  
51 6% 94%  
52 10% 88%  
53 14% 78%  
54 15% 64% Median
55 15% 49%  
56 13% 34%  
57 9% 21%  
58 6% 12%  
59 3% 6%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.7% 1.2%  
62 0.3% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.8%  
35 1.4% 99.3%  
36 3% 98%  
37 7% 94%  
38 11% 87%  
39 14% 76%  
40 16% 62% Last Result, Median
41 15% 46%  
42 13% 30%  
43 8% 18%  
44 5% 9%  
45 3% 4%  
46 1.1% 2%  
47 0.4% 0.6%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.9%  
33 1.2% 99.5%  
34 3% 98%  
35 6% 95%  
36 10% 89%  
37 14% 79%  
38 16% 65% Median
39 16% 48%  
40 13% 32%  
41 9% 19%  
42 5% 10%  
43 3% 4%  
44 1.1% 2%  
45 0.4% 0.6%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations