Opinion Poll by OGM for KURIER, 18–24 January 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 28.0% 26.7–29.3% 26.4–29.7% 26.1–30.0% 25.5–30.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 22.0% 20.9–23.2% 20.5–23.6% 20.3–23.9% 19.7–24.5%
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 22.0% 20.9–23.2% 20.5–23.6% 20.3–23.9% 19.7–24.5%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 9.0–11.2% 8.8–11.4% 8.4–11.9%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Bierpartei 0.0% 6.0% 5.4–6.7% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.1% 4.8–7.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 52 49–54 49–55 48–55 47–57
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 40 38–43 38–43 37–44 36–45
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 40 38–43 38–43 37–44 36–45
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 18 17–20 16–20 16–21 15–22
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 13 11–14 11–14 11–15 10–15
Bierpartei 0 11 10–12 9–12 9–13 8–13

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0.2% 100%  
47 1.0% 99.8%  
48 3% 98.8%  
49 7% 95%  
50 14% 88%  
51 21% 74%  
52 21% 53% Median
53 14% 32%  
54 10% 18%  
55 5% 7%  
56 2% 2%  
57 0.5% 0.7%  
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.8% 99.9%  
37 3% 99.0%  
38 8% 96%  
39 16% 88%  
40 22% 71% Last Result, Median
41 21% 49%  
42 16% 29%  
43 8% 13%  
44 3% 5%  
45 1.0% 1.3%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.7% 99.9%  
37 3% 99.1%  
38 8% 96%  
39 17% 88%  
40 23% 71% Median
41 18% 48%  
42 17% 30%  
43 8% 13%  
44 4% 5%  
45 0.8% 1.1%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 1.1% 99.9% Last Result
16 7% 98.8%  
17 20% 92%  
18 32% 72% Median
19 25% 40%  
20 12% 15%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.5% 0.6%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 2% 99.9%  
11 14% 98%  
12 32% 84%  
13 34% 53% Median
14 15% 19%  
15 3% 4%  
16 0.5% 0.5%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Bierpartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bierpartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.9% 100%  
9 8% 99.1%  
10 32% 91%  
11 38% 59% Median
12 16% 21%  
13 5% 5%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 71 92 62% 89–95 89–96 88–97 87–98
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 102 92 62% 89–95 89–96 88–97 87–98
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 111 81 0% 78–84 78–85 77–85 76–87
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 81 71 0% 69–74 68–75 67–76 66–77
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 112 71 0% 69–74 68–75 67–76 66–77
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 59 0% 56–61 55–62 55–63 54–64
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 53 0% 51–56 50–56 49–57 48–58
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 53 0% 51–56 50–56 49–57 48–58
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 40 0% 38–43 38–43 37–44 36–45
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 40 0% 38–43 38–43 37–44 36–45

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 100%  
86 0.3% 99.9%  
87 1.0% 99.6%  
88 2% 98.6%  
89 7% 96%  
90 10% 89%  
91 17% 79%  
92 19% 62% Median, Majority
93 16% 43%  
94 12% 27%  
95 8% 15%  
96 4% 6%  
97 2% 3%  
98 0.7% 1.1%  
99 0.2% 0.4%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0.1% 100%  
86 0.3% 99.9%  
87 1.0% 99.6%  
88 3% 98.7%  
89 6% 96%  
90 11% 90%  
91 17% 79%  
92 18% 62% Median, Majority
93 17% 45%  
94 14% 28%  
95 8% 14%  
96 4% 6%  
97 2% 3%  
98 0.6% 1.1%  
99 0.2% 0.4%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.3% 99.9%  
76 1.1% 99.6%  
77 3% 98.5%  
78 7% 95%  
79 12% 88%  
80 16% 77% Median
81 19% 60%  
82 17% 41%  
83 12% 24%  
84 7% 12%  
85 3% 5%  
86 1.2% 2%  
87 0.5% 0.8%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.2% 100%  
66 0.8% 99.8%  
67 2% 99.0%  
68 6% 97%  
69 10% 91%  
70 16% 81%  
71 19% 65% Median
72 17% 46%  
73 15% 29%  
74 7% 14%  
75 4% 7%  
76 2% 3%  
77 0.6% 0.9%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.2% 100%  
66 0.7% 99.8%  
67 2% 99.1%  
68 6% 97%  
69 11% 91%  
70 15% 81%  
71 20% 66% Median
72 19% 46%  
73 12% 28%  
74 9% 15%  
75 4% 7%  
76 2% 3%  
77 0.6% 0.9%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 1.1% 99.7%  
55 4% 98.6%  
56 7% 95%  
57 14% 88%  
58 20% 73% Median
59 19% 54%  
60 16% 35%  
61 10% 19%  
62 6% 9%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.7% 1.0%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.6% 99.8%  
49 2% 99.3%  
50 6% 97%  
51 11% 91%  
52 18% 80%  
53 20% 61% Median
54 18% 41%  
55 12% 23%  
56 7% 11%  
57 3% 4%  
58 1.0% 1.4%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.5% 99.9%  
49 2% 99.3%  
50 7% 97%  
51 11% 91%  
52 17% 80%  
53 22% 63% Median
54 18% 41%  
55 12% 23%  
56 7% 11%  
57 3% 4%  
58 0.9% 1.3%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.8% 99.9%  
37 3% 99.0%  
38 8% 96%  
39 16% 88%  
40 22% 71% Last Result, Median
41 21% 49%  
42 16% 29%  
43 8% 13%  
44 3% 5%  
45 1.0% 1.3%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.7% 99.9%  
37 3% 99.1%  
38 8% 96%  
39 17% 88%  
40 23% 71% Median
41 18% 48%  
42 17% 30%  
43 8% 13%  
44 4% 5%  
45 0.8% 1.1%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations