Opinion Poll by INSA for eXXpress, 1–5 March 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 31.0% 29.2–32.9% 28.7–33.5% 28.2–33.9% 27.3–34.9%
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 22.0% 20.4–23.7% 19.9–24.2% 19.5–24.7% 18.8–25.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 22.0% 20.4–23.7% 19.9–24.2% 19.5–24.7% 18.8–25.5%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 57 54–60 53–62 52–62 50–64
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 40 37–44 36–44 36–45 34–47
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 40 37–44 36–44 36–45 34–47
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 16 14–19 14–19 13–20 12–21
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 14 12–17 12–17 11–18 11–19

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.5% 99.8%  
51 1.2% 99.2%  
52 3% 98%  
53 5% 95%  
54 8% 90%  
55 12% 82%  
56 13% 70%  
57 15% 57% Median
58 14% 42%  
59 11% 29%  
60 8% 18%  
61 5% 10%  
62 3% 5%  
63 1.4% 2%  
64 0.6% 0.9%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.8%  
35 1.4% 99.4%  
36 3% 98%  
37 7% 95%  
38 10% 88%  
39 14% 78%  
40 16% 64% Median
41 16% 47%  
42 13% 32%  
43 9% 19%  
44 6% 10%  
45 3% 5%  
46 1.3% 2%  
47 0.5% 0.7%  
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.8%  
35 1.4% 99.4%  
36 3% 98%  
37 7% 95%  
38 10% 88%  
39 15% 78%  
40 16% 63% Last Result, Median
41 17% 48%  
42 12% 31%  
43 9% 19%  
44 6% 10%  
45 3% 5%  
46 1.4% 2%  
47 0.4% 0.7%  
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.7% 99.9%  
13 3% 99.2%  
14 10% 96%  
15 18% 86%  
16 23% 68% Median
17 21% 45%  
18 14% 24%  
19 7% 10%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.7% 0.9%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 2% 99.7%  
12 8% 97%  
13 18% 90%  
14 23% 72% Median
15 24% 49% Last Result
16 14% 25%  
17 7% 11%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.7% 0.9%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 71 97 98% 94–101 92–102 92–103 90–105
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 102 97 98% 94–101 93–102 92–103 90–105
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 111 81 0% 77–84 76–86 75–86 73–88
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 71 0% 67–75 66–76 66–77 64–79
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 71 0% 67–75 66–76 66–77 64–79
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 57 0% 53–60 52–61 51–62 50–64
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 57 0% 53–60 52–61 51–62 50–64
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 55 0% 51–58 50–59 50–60 48–62
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 40 0% 37–44 36–44 36–45 34–47
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 40 0% 37–44 36–44 36–45 34–47

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.2% 99.9%  
90 0.6% 99.6%  
91 1.3% 99.0%  
92 3% 98% Majority
93 5% 95%  
94 7% 90%  
95 10% 83%  
96 12% 74%  
97 14% 62% Median
98 13% 48%  
99 12% 35%  
100 9% 23%  
101 6% 14%  
102 4% 8%  
103 2% 4%  
104 1.1% 2%  
105 0.5% 0.7%  
106 0.2% 0.3%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.3% 99.9%  
90 0.6% 99.6%  
91 1.4% 99.0%  
92 3% 98% Majority
93 5% 95%  
94 7% 91%  
95 10% 84%  
96 12% 74%  
97 13% 61% Median
98 13% 48%  
99 12% 35%  
100 9% 23%  
101 6% 14%  
102 4% 8% Last Result
103 2% 4%  
104 1.1% 2%  
105 0.5% 0.7%  
106 0.2% 0.3%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.4% 99.8%  
74 1.0% 99.4%  
75 2% 98%  
76 4% 96%  
77 6% 92%  
78 9% 87%  
79 11% 78%  
80 13% 66% Median
81 13% 53%  
82 12% 40%  
83 10% 27%  
84 7% 17%  
85 5% 10%  
86 3% 5%  
87 1.4% 2%  
88 0.7% 1.1%  
89 0.3% 0.4%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.6% 99.6%  
65 1.4% 99.0%  
66 3% 98%  
67 5% 95%  
68 8% 90%  
69 11% 82%  
70 13% 72% Median
71 14% 59%  
72 13% 45%  
73 11% 32%  
74 8% 21%  
75 6% 12%  
76 3% 7%  
77 2% 3%  
78 0.9% 1.4%  
79 0.4% 0.6%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1% Last Result
82 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.6% 99.7%  
65 1.4% 99.0%  
66 3% 98%  
67 5% 95%  
68 8% 90%  
69 10% 82%  
70 13% 72% Median
71 14% 59%  
72 13% 45%  
73 11% 32%  
74 8% 21%  
75 6% 12%  
76 4% 7%  
77 2% 3%  
78 0.9% 1.4%  
79 0.4% 0.6%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.7% 99.6%  
51 2% 99.0%  
52 3% 97%  
53 6% 94%  
54 9% 88%  
55 12% 79%  
56 14% 67% Median
57 15% 52%  
58 13% 38%  
59 10% 25%  
60 7% 15%  
61 4% 8%  
62 2% 4%  
63 1.1% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.7%  
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
67 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.7% 99.7%  
51 2% 98.9%  
52 3% 97%  
53 6% 94%  
54 9% 88%  
55 12% 79%  
56 15% 67% Median
57 14% 52%  
58 13% 38%  
59 11% 26%  
60 7% 15%  
61 4% 8%  
62 2% 4%  
63 1.1% 2%  
64 0.5% 0.7%  
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.6% 99.7%  
49 1.3% 99.1%  
50 3% 98%  
51 5% 95%  
52 8% 89%  
53 13% 81%  
54 14% 69% Median
55 15% 55%  
56 14% 40%  
57 10% 26%  
58 7% 16%  
59 5% 9%  
60 2% 4%  
61 1.1% 2%  
62 0.5% 0.8%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.8%  
35 1.4% 99.4%  
36 3% 98%  
37 7% 95%  
38 10% 88%  
39 15% 78%  
40 16% 63% Last Result, Median
41 17% 48%  
42 12% 31%  
43 9% 19%  
44 6% 10%  
45 3% 5%  
46 1.4% 2%  
47 0.4% 0.7%  
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.8%  
35 1.4% 99.4%  
36 3% 98%  
37 7% 95%  
38 10% 88%  
39 14% 78%  
40 16% 64% Median
41 16% 47%  
42 13% 32%  
43 9% 19%  
44 6% 10%  
45 3% 5%  
46 1.3% 2%  
47 0.5% 0.7%  
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations