Opinion Poll by OGM for KURIER, 24–26 June 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 27.0% 25.3–28.8% 24.8–29.3% 24.3–29.8% 23.5–30.7%
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 24.0% 22.4–25.8% 21.9–26.3% 21.5–26.8% 20.7–27.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.6% 17.9–24.5%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 11.0% 9.9–12.4% 9.5–12.8% 9.3–13.1% 8.7–13.8%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.8% 6.1–10.5%
Bierpartei 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs 0.7% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 52 48–55 47–56 46–57 45–59
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 46 42–49 42–50 41–51 39–53
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 40 37–44 36–45 35–45 34–47
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 21 18–23 18–24 17–25 16–26
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 15 13–17 13–18 12–19 11–20
Bierpartei 0 9 8–11 0–12 0–12 0–13
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs 0 0 0 0–7 0–8 0–8

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.9%  
45 0.7% 99.6%  
46 2% 98.9%  
47 3% 97%  
48 7% 93%  
49 9% 87%  
50 12% 78%  
51 15% 66%  
52 13% 51% Median
53 14% 38%  
54 9% 24%  
55 7% 14%  
56 4% 8%  
57 2% 4%  
58 1.1% 2%  
59 0.4% 0.8%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.8%  
40 0.9% 99.4%  
41 3% 98%  
42 6% 96%  
43 8% 90%  
44 11% 82%  
45 15% 71%  
46 15% 56% Median
47 13% 41%  
48 12% 29%  
49 8% 17%  
50 5% 9%  
51 2% 4%  
52 1.0% 2%  
53 0.7% 1.0%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 0.8% 99.6%  
35 2% 98.8%  
36 3% 97%  
37 6% 94%  
38 14% 88%  
39 18% 74%  
40 20% 56% Last Result, Median
41 12% 36%  
42 7% 24%  
43 7% 17%  
44 5% 10%  
45 3% 6%  
46 2% 2%  
47 0.4% 0.7%  
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.6% 99.9%  
17 3% 99.3%  
18 7% 97%  
19 13% 90%  
20 19% 77%  
21 22% 58% Median
22 16% 36%  
23 11% 20%  
24 6% 9%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.9% 1.2% Last Result
27 0.2% 0.3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.9% 99.9%  
12 4% 99.0%  
13 11% 95%  
14 21% 85%  
15 24% 64% Last Result, Median
16 19% 40%  
17 13% 21%  
18 6% 8%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.5% 0.6%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Bierpartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bierpartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 0% 95%  
2 0% 95%  
3 0% 95%  
4 0% 95%  
5 0% 95%  
6 0% 95%  
7 3% 95%  
8 21% 92%  
9 29% 71% Median
10 24% 42%  
11 13% 18%  
12 4% 5%  
13 0.9% 1.1%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Kommunistische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 5%  
2 0% 5%  
3 0% 5%  
4 0% 5%  
5 0% 5%  
6 0% 5%  
7 3% 5%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 102 98 97% 93–102 92–103 91–104 89–107
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 71 91 50% 88–96 87–97 85–98 83–101
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 86 5% 82–90 81–91 80–93 78–95
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 82 0.3% 78–86 77–87 76–88 74–91
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 76 0% 72–80 71–81 70–83 68–85
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 67 0% 63–71 62–72 61–73 59–75
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 61 0% 57–65 56–66 56–67 54–69
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 61 0% 57–65 56–66 55–67 54–69
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 46 0% 42–49 42–50 41–51 39–53
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 40 0% 37–44 36–45 35–45 34–47

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.9%  
89 0.4% 99.7%  
90 0.8% 99.2%  
91 2% 98%  
92 3% 97% Majority
93 5% 94%  
94 6% 89%  
95 9% 83%  
96 12% 74%  
97 11% 62%  
98 14% 51% Median
99 9% 37%  
100 9% 28%  
101 8% 19%  
102 5% 11% Last Result
103 3% 6%  
104 2% 4%  
105 0.7% 2%  
106 0.5% 1.1%  
107 0.3% 0.6%  
108 0.1% 0.3%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.2% 99.9%  
83 0.3% 99.7%  
84 0.6% 99.4%  
85 1.3% 98.8%  
86 2% 97%  
87 4% 95%  
88 6% 91%  
89 9% 85%  
90 12% 76%  
91 14% 64%  
92 14% 50% Median, Majority
93 10% 36%  
94 8% 26%  
95 7% 18%  
96 4% 11%  
97 3% 7%  
98 2% 4%  
99 1.0% 2%  
100 0.7% 1.3%  
101 0.3% 0.6%  
102 0.2% 0.3%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.8%  
78 0.5% 99.6%  
79 1.1% 99.1%  
80 2% 98%  
81 4% 96%  
82 6% 92%  
83 8% 86%  
84 10% 78%  
85 13% 69%  
86 12% 56% Median
87 14% 44%  
88 9% 30%  
89 8% 21%  
90 4% 13%  
91 3% 8%  
92 2% 5% Majority
93 1.5% 3%  
94 0.6% 1.4%  
95 0.4% 0.7%  
96 0.2% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.3% 99.9%  
74 0.6% 99.6%  
75 1.1% 99.0%  
76 2% 98%  
77 4% 96%  
78 5% 92%  
79 8% 87%  
80 8% 78%  
81 13% 70%  
82 11% 57% Median
83 17% 46%  
84 8% 29%  
85 9% 21%  
86 5% 12%  
87 3% 7%  
88 2% 4%  
89 0.7% 2%  
90 0.8% 2%  
91 0.4% 0.7%  
92 0.1% 0.3% Majority
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.3% 99.7%  
69 0.9% 99.4%  
70 2% 98.6%  
71 4% 97%  
72 5% 93%  
73 9% 88%  
74 11% 79%  
75 12% 69%  
76 13% 57% Median
77 12% 44%  
78 10% 32%  
79 8% 22%  
80 5% 13%  
81 3% 8% Last Result
82 2% 5%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.7% 1.3%  
85 0.4% 0.6%  
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.5% 99.8%  
60 0.9% 99.3%  
61 2% 98%  
62 3% 97%  
63 7% 93%  
64 8% 86%  
65 10% 78%  
66 14% 68%  
67 11% 54% Median
68 14% 43%  
69 11% 29%  
70 7% 18%  
71 5% 11%  
72 3% 6%  
73 1.2% 3%  
74 1.0% 2%  
75 0.4% 0.8%  
76 0.2% 0.4%  
77 0.2% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.8%  
54 0.7% 99.5%  
55 1.3% 98.8%  
56 3% 98%  
57 5% 95%  
58 8% 89%  
59 14% 82%  
60 13% 68%  
61 17% 55% Median
62 10% 38%  
63 9% 28%  
64 7% 19%  
65 5% 12%  
66 3% 7% Last Result
67 2% 4%  
68 1.3% 2%  
69 0.4% 0.7%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.8%  
54 0.7% 99.5%  
55 2% 98.9%  
56 3% 97%  
57 6% 94%  
58 7% 88%  
59 8% 81%  
60 15% 73%  
61 14% 58% Median
62 13% 44%  
63 10% 31%  
64 9% 21%  
65 6% 12%  
66 3% 6%  
67 1.3% 3%  
68 0.9% 2%  
69 0.5% 0.8%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.8%  
40 0.9% 99.4%  
41 3% 98%  
42 6% 96%  
43 8% 90%  
44 11% 82%  
45 15% 71%  
46 15% 56% Median
47 13% 41%  
48 12% 29%  
49 8% 17%  
50 5% 9%  
51 2% 4%  
52 1.0% 2%  
53 0.7% 1.0%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 0.8% 99.6%  
35 2% 98.8%  
36 3% 97%  
37 6% 94%  
38 14% 88%  
39 18% 74%  
40 20% 56% Last Result, Median
41 12% 36%  
42 7% 24%  
43 7% 17%  
44 5% 10%  
45 3% 6%  
46 2% 2%  
47 0.4% 0.7%  
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations