Opinion Poll by Unique Research for Kronen Zeitung, 8–12 July 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 28.0% 26.2–29.9% 25.7–30.4% 25.3–30.9% 24.5–31.8%
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.7% 19.7–26.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 20.0% 18.4–21.7% 18.0–22.2% 17.6–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Bierpartei 0.0% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs 0.7% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 53 49–57 48–58 47–59 46–60
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 43 40–47 39–48 38–49 37–51
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 38 35–41 34–42 33–43 31–45
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 17 15–19 14–20 13–21 13–22
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 17 15–19 14–20 13–20 13–22
Bierpartei 0 11 9–13 9–14 8–14 8–15
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs 0 7 0–9 0–9 0–10 0–11

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 0.8% 99.6%  
47 2% 98.9%  
48 4% 97%  
49 5% 93%  
50 8% 89%  
51 13% 81%  
52 14% 68%  
53 10% 54% Median
54 14% 44%  
55 12% 30%  
56 8% 18%  
57 5% 10%  
58 2% 6%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.8% 1.3%  
61 0.3% 0.5%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 0.8% 99.6%  
38 2% 98.8%  
39 4% 97%  
40 7% 93%  
41 11% 86%  
42 15% 76%  
43 14% 61% Median
44 14% 47%  
45 11% 33%  
46 9% 22%  
47 6% 13%  
48 3% 7%  
49 2% 4%  
50 1.3% 2%  
51 0.3% 0.5%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.9%  
32 1.2% 99.5%  
33 3% 98%  
34 5% 95%  
35 10% 90%  
36 13% 80%  
37 14% 68%  
38 17% 54% Median
39 14% 37%  
40 10% 23% Last Result
41 6% 13%  
42 4% 8%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.9% 1.5%  
45 0.4% 0.5%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.4% 100%  
13 2% 99.6%  
14 6% 97%  
15 15% 91%  
16 22% 76%  
17 20% 55% Median
18 17% 34%  
19 10% 18%  
20 5% 7%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.6% 0.7%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.4% 100%  
13 2% 99.6%  
14 7% 97%  
15 14% 90% Last Result
16 21% 77%  
17 23% 56% Median
18 16% 33%  
19 10% 17%  
20 4% 7%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.6% 0.7%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Bierpartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bierpartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0.2% 99.9%  
8 2% 99.7%  
9 11% 97%  
10 21% 87%  
11 27% 65% Median
12 22% 39%  
13 11% 17%  
14 4% 6%  
15 1.1% 1.4%  
16 0.2% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  

Kommunistische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 47% 100% Last Result
1 0% 53%  
2 0% 53%  
3 0% 53%  
4 0% 53%  
5 0% 53%  
6 0% 53%  
7 15% 53% Median
8 25% 37%  
9 9% 12%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.5% 0.5%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 102 96 91% 92–101 91–103 89–104 87–106
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 71 91 41% 86–95 85–97 84–98 82–100
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 81 0.1% 77–86 76–87 75–88 73–90
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 77 0% 73–81 72–83 71–84 69–86
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 71 0% 67–76 66–77 65–78 63–80
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 60 0% 56–64 55–66 54–67 52–68
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 60 0% 56–64 55–66 54–66 53–68
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 55 0% 51–58 50–60 49–61 47–62
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 43 0% 40–47 39–48 38–49 37–51
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 38 0% 35–41 34–42 33–43 31–45

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.3% 99.8%  
88 0.9% 99.5%  
89 1.4% 98.6%  
90 2% 97%  
91 4% 95%  
92 5% 91% Majority
93 6% 85%  
94 9% 79%  
95 12% 70%  
96 10% 58% Median
97 12% 48%  
98 10% 36%  
99 7% 26%  
100 6% 19%  
101 5% 13%  
102 3% 8% Last Result
103 2% 5%  
104 2% 3%  
105 0.6% 1.1%  
106 0.3% 0.5%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.2% 99.9%  
82 0.5% 99.6%  
83 0.9% 99.1%  
84 2% 98%  
85 3% 96%  
86 4% 93%  
87 8% 88%  
88 7% 80%  
89 10% 73%  
90 10% 62%  
91 11% 52% Median
92 11% 41% Majority
93 8% 30%  
94 7% 22%  
95 5% 14%  
96 4% 9%  
97 2% 5%  
98 1.3% 3%  
99 0.9% 1.5%  
100 0.3% 0.6%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 0.7% 99.6%  
74 1.4% 99.0%  
75 2% 98%  
76 4% 95%  
77 7% 91%  
78 7% 84%  
79 11% 77%  
80 10% 66%  
81 12% 56% Median
82 10% 45%  
83 10% 34%  
84 8% 25%  
85 6% 16%  
86 4% 11%  
87 3% 7%  
88 2% 4%  
89 1.0% 2%  
90 0.5% 0.8%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.1% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.3% 99.8%  
69 0.7% 99.5%  
70 1.1% 98.8%  
71 3% 98%  
72 4% 95%  
73 6% 91%  
74 9% 85%  
75 10% 76%  
76 11% 66%  
77 11% 55% Median
78 11% 44%  
79 9% 33%  
80 8% 24%  
81 6% 16%  
82 4% 10%  
83 2% 6%  
84 2% 3%  
85 1.0% 2%  
86 0.3% 0.6%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.4% 99.8%  
64 1.1% 99.3%  
65 2% 98%  
66 3% 96%  
67 5% 93%  
68 7% 88%  
69 11% 81%  
70 12% 69%  
71 11% 58%  
72 11% 47% Median
73 10% 36%  
74 9% 26%  
75 6% 17%  
76 5% 11%  
77 3% 7%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.8% 1.5%  
80 0.4% 0.7%  
81 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.4% 99.8%  
53 0.8% 99.5%  
54 2% 98.7%  
55 3% 97%  
56 5% 94%  
57 8% 89%  
58 11% 81%  
59 14% 70%  
60 11% 56% Median
61 12% 45%  
62 10% 33%  
63 7% 23%  
64 6% 15%  
65 4% 9%  
66 3% 5%  
67 1.4% 3%  
68 0.7% 1.2%  
69 0.3% 0.5%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 0.8% 99.5%  
54 2% 98.7%  
55 3% 97%  
56 6% 94%  
57 8% 88%  
58 10% 80%  
59 12% 70%  
60 13% 58% Median
61 12% 45%  
62 11% 34%  
63 8% 23%  
64 6% 14%  
65 4% 9%  
66 3% 5%  
67 1.2% 2%  
68 0.7% 1.2%  
69 0.3% 0.5%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.4% 99.7%  
48 1.2% 99.3%  
49 2% 98%  
50 4% 96%  
51 7% 91%  
52 10% 84%  
53 12% 75%  
54 13% 63%  
55 13% 50% Median
56 12% 37%  
57 9% 25%  
58 6% 16%  
59 3% 9%  
60 3% 6%  
61 1.3% 3%  
62 0.8% 1.2%  
63 0.3% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 0.8% 99.6%  
38 2% 98.8%  
39 4% 97%  
40 7% 93%  
41 11% 86%  
42 15% 76%  
43 14% 61% Median
44 14% 47%  
45 11% 33%  
46 9% 22%  
47 6% 13%  
48 3% 7%  
49 2% 4%  
50 1.3% 2%  
51 0.3% 0.5%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.9%  
32 1.2% 99.5%  
33 3% 98%  
34 5% 95%  
35 10% 90%  
36 13% 80%  
37 14% 68%  
38 17% 54% Median
39 14% 37%  
40 10% 23% Last Result
41 6% 13%  
42 4% 8%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.9% 1.5%  
45 0.4% 0.5%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations