Opinion Poll by IFDD for Radio Content Austria, 25–26 July 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 25.9% 24.3–27.7% 23.8–28.2% 23.4–28.6% 22.6–29.4%
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 24.9% 23.3–26.6% 22.8–27.1% 22.4–27.6% 21.7–28.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 22.9% 21.3–24.6% 20.9–25.1% 20.5–25.5% 19.8–26.3%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 9.0% 8.0–10.2% 7.7–10.5% 7.4–10.9% 7.0–11.4%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 9.0% 8.0–10.2% 7.7–10.5% 7.4–10.9% 7.0–11.4%
Bierpartei 0.0% 5.0% 4.3–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.9–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs 0.7% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.9–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 49 46–53 45–54 44–54 43–56
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 47 44–51 43–52 42–52 41–54
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 43 40–47 39–48 39–48 37–50
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 17 15–19 14–20 14–20 13–21
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 17 15–19 14–20 14–20 13–21
Bierpartei 0 9 8–11 7–11 0–12 0–13
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs 0 0 0 0 0–7 0–8

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 0.9% 99.6%  
44 2% 98.7%  
45 4% 96%  
46 6% 92%  
47 12% 86%  
48 14% 74%  
49 15% 60% Median
50 13% 45%  
51 10% 32%  
52 10% 21%  
53 6% 11%  
54 3% 5%  
55 1.2% 2%  
56 0.5% 1.0%  
57 0.2% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.7% 99.7%  
42 2% 98.9%  
43 4% 97%  
44 8% 93%  
45 11% 85%  
46 13% 74%  
47 14% 60% Median
48 15% 47%  
49 14% 32%  
50 8% 18%  
51 6% 11%  
52 3% 5%  
53 1.4% 2%  
54 0.6% 1.1%  
55 0.3% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.6% 99.8%  
38 1.2% 99.3%  
39 4% 98%  
40 6% 94% Last Result
41 9% 88%  
42 14% 79%  
43 17% 65% Median
44 14% 49%  
45 11% 35%  
46 12% 24%  
47 7% 12%  
48 3% 6%  
49 1.3% 2%  
50 0.8% 1.2%  
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 1.3% 99.8%  
14 6% 98%  
15 13% 92%  
16 18% 79%  
17 27% 61% Median
18 19% 34%  
19 8% 15%  
20 5% 7%  
21 1.5% 2%  
22 0.4% 0.5%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 1.4% 99.8%  
14 6% 98%  
15 14% 93% Last Result
16 22% 79%  
17 24% 57% Median
18 18% 33%  
19 9% 15%  
20 5% 6%  
21 1.2% 2%  
22 0.4% 0.5%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Bierpartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bierpartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0% 96%  
4 0% 96%  
5 0% 96%  
6 0% 96%  
7 4% 96%  
8 20% 91%  
9 32% 71% Median
10 24% 39%  
11 11% 16%  
12 4% 4%  
13 0.7% 0.8%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Kommunistische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 0% 4%  
4 0% 4%  
5 0% 4%  
6 0% 4%  
7 3% 4%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 102 97 95% 93–100 92–102 90–103 88–105
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 71 93 67% 89–96 88–98 87–99 85–101
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 91 41% 87–95 86–96 85–97 83–100
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 81 0.1% 77–85 76–86 75–87 73–90
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 77 0% 73–81 72–82 71–83 70–86
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 64 0% 60–68 60–69 59–70 57–72
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 64 0% 61–68 60–69 59–70 57–72
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 60 0% 57–64 56–65 55–66 53–68
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 47 0% 44–51 43–52 42–52 41–54
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 43 0% 40–47 39–48 39–48 37–50

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.3% 99.8%  
89 0.6% 99.5%  
90 2% 98.9%  
91 2% 97%  
92 5% 95% Majority
93 7% 90%  
94 12% 84%  
95 10% 72%  
96 12% 62% Median
97 12% 50%  
98 13% 38%  
99 8% 25%  
100 7% 17%  
101 4% 10%  
102 2% 5% Last Result
103 2% 3%  
104 0.7% 2%  
105 0.5% 0.9%  
106 0.2% 0.3%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.9%  
85 0.7% 99.6%  
86 1.2% 98.9%  
87 3% 98%  
88 4% 95%  
89 7% 91%  
90 7% 84%  
91 9% 77%  
92 14% 67% Median, Majority
93 12% 53%  
94 11% 41%  
95 11% 30%  
96 9% 19%  
97 3% 10%  
98 3% 6%  
99 2% 3%  
100 1.0% 2%  
101 0.3% 0.7%  
102 0.2% 0.4%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.8%  
83 0.4% 99.6%  
84 1.0% 99.2%  
85 2% 98%  
86 5% 96%  
87 6% 91%  
88 8% 85%  
89 10% 77%  
90 11% 67% Median
91 14% 56%  
92 14% 41% Majority
93 11% 28%  
94 7% 17%  
95 4% 10%  
96 2% 6%  
97 2% 4%  
98 1.0% 2%  
99 0.6% 1.1%  
100 0.3% 0.5%  
101 0.2% 0.3%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.8%  
74 1.0% 99.5%  
75 2% 98.5%  
76 3% 97%  
77 6% 94%  
78 9% 87%  
79 10% 79%  
80 15% 69%  
81 11% 54% Median
82 12% 43%  
83 10% 30%  
84 8% 21%  
85 5% 13%  
86 3% 7%  
87 3% 4%  
88 0.8% 2%  
89 0.6% 1.1%  
90 0.3% 0.5%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1% Majority
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 0.9% 99.6%  
71 1.4% 98.7%  
72 4% 97%  
73 5% 94%  
74 7% 89%  
75 10% 81%  
76 13% 72%  
77 13% 59% Median
78 14% 46%  
79 7% 33%  
80 10% 25%  
81 7% 15% Last Result
82 3% 8%  
83 2% 5%  
84 0.9% 2%  
85 0.6% 1.2%  
86 0.3% 0.6%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.5% 99.7%  
58 1.0% 99.2%  
59 3% 98%  
60 6% 95%  
61 9% 90%  
62 14% 81%  
63 10% 68%  
64 12% 58% Median
65 12% 46%  
66 12% 34%  
67 10% 22%  
68 5% 12%  
69 3% 6%  
70 2% 4%  
71 1.1% 2%  
72 0.6% 0.8%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.7% 99.7%  
58 1.4% 99.1%  
59 2% 98%  
60 5% 95%  
61 9% 90%  
62 10% 81%  
63 17% 72%  
64 11% 55% Median
65 13% 44%  
66 10% 31%  
67 9% 20%  
68 5% 12%  
69 3% 6%  
70 1.5% 3%  
71 0.8% 2%  
72 0.5% 0.8%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.4% 99.8%  
54 1.2% 99.4%  
55 2% 98%  
56 4% 96%  
57 8% 92%  
58 11% 84%  
59 10% 73%  
60 16% 63% Median
61 11% 47%  
62 11% 36%  
63 12% 26%  
64 7% 14%  
65 3% 7%  
66 2% 4% Last Result
67 1.1% 2%  
68 0.5% 0.8%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.7% 99.7%  
42 2% 98.9%  
43 4% 97%  
44 8% 93%  
45 11% 85%  
46 13% 74%  
47 14% 60% Median
48 15% 47%  
49 14% 32%  
50 8% 18%  
51 6% 11%  
52 3% 5%  
53 1.4% 2%  
54 0.6% 1.1%  
55 0.3% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.6% 99.8%  
38 1.2% 99.3%  
39 4% 98%  
40 6% 94% Last Result
41 9% 88%  
42 14% 79%  
43 17% 65% Median
44 14% 49%  
45 11% 35%  
46 12% 24%  
47 7% 12%  
48 3% 6%  
49 1.3% 2%  
50 0.8% 1.2%  
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations