Opinion Poll by Market for ÖSTERREICH, 22–30 July 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 16.2% | 27.0% | 25.7–28.3% | 25.4–28.7% | 25.1–29.0% | 24.5–29.6% |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 37.5% | 23.0% | 21.8–24.2% | 21.5–24.6% | 21.2–24.9% | 20.7–25.5% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 21.2% | 22.0% | 20.8–23.2% | 20.5–23.6% | 20.2–23.9% | 19.7–24.5% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 8.1% | 10.0% | 9.2–10.9% | 8.9–11.2% | 8.7–11.4% | 8.4–11.9% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 13.9% | 8.0% | 7.3–8.8% | 7.1–9.1% | 6.9–9.3% | 6.6–9.7% |
| Bierpartei | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.4–5.7% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% |
| Kommunistische Partei Österreichs | 0.7% | 3.0% | 2.6–3.6% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.1–4.1% |
| Liste Madeleine Petrovic | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.8–1.4% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.5–1.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 31 | 52 | 50–55 | 49–56 | 48–56 | 47–58 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 45 | 42–47 | 42–47 | 41–48 | 40–49 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 42 | 40–45 | 40–46 | 39–46 | 38–48 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 15 | 19 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 17–22 | 16–23 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 26 | 15 | 14–17 | 13–17 | 13–18 | 12–18 |
| Bierpartei | 0 | 9 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 0–12 |
| Kommunistische Partei Österreichs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–7 |
| Liste Madeleine Petrovic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 48 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 49 | 4% | 97% | |
| 50 | 10% | 94% | |
| 51 | 21% | 84% | |
| 52 | 19% | 62% | Median |
| 53 | 21% | 43% | |
| 54 | 9% | 22% | |
| 55 | 7% | 13% | |
| 56 | 3% | 5% | |
| 57 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 40 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 41 | 3% | 98% | |
| 42 | 7% | 96% | |
| 43 | 25% | 88% | |
| 44 | 12% | 64% | |
| 45 | 22% | 52% | Median |
| 46 | 18% | 30% | |
| 47 | 7% | 12% | |
| 48 | 3% | 5% | |
| 49 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 39 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 40 | 9% | 96% | Last Result |
| 41 | 16% | 87% | |
| 42 | 22% | 71% | Median |
| 43 | 20% | 48% | |
| 44 | 15% | 28% | |
| 45 | 7% | 13% | |
| 46 | 4% | 6% | |
| 47 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 16 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 17 | 10% | 98% | |
| 18 | 19% | 88% | |
| 19 | 31% | 69% | Median |
| 20 | 22% | 38% | |
| 21 | 12% | 16% | |
| 22 | 3% | 4% | |
| 23 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 6% | 99.0% | |
| 14 | 22% | 93% | |
| 15 | 27% | 71% | Median |
| 16 | 31% | 45% | |
| 17 | 10% | 13% | |
| 18 | 2% | 3% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Bierpartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bierpartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 7 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 8 | 13% | 98% | |
| 9 | 38% | 85% | Median |
| 10 | 35% | 47% | |
| 11 | 10% | 12% | |
| 12 | 2% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 7 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Liste Madeleine Petrovic
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liste Madeleine Petrovic page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei | 102 | 96 | 99.2% | 94–99 | 93–101 | 93–101 | 91–103 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 71 | 95 | 92% | 92–98 | 91–98 | 91–99 | 89–101 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 111 | 87 | 2% | 84–90 | 83–90 | 83–91 | 81–93 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 112 | 79 | 0% | 76–82 | 75–82 | 75–83 | 73–85 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 81 | 77 | 0% | 74–80 | 73–81 | 73–81 | 71–83 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 86 | 64 | 0% | 61–66 | 60–67 | 60–68 | 58–69 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 97 | 60 | 0% | 57–62 | 56–63 | 56–64 | 54–65 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 66 | 58 | 0% | 55–61 | 54–61 | 54–62 | 53–63 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 45 | 0% | 42–47 | 42–47 | 41–48 | 40–49 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 42 | 0% | 40–45 | 40–46 | 39–46 | 38–48 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 91 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 92 | 2% | 99.2% | Majority |
| 93 | 5% | 98% | |
| 94 | 8% | 93% | |
| 95 | 11% | 85% | |
| 96 | 25% | 74% | |
| 97 | 13% | 48% | Median |
| 98 | 16% | 36% | |
| 99 | 11% | 20% | |
| 100 | 4% | 9% | |
| 101 | 3% | 5% | |
| 102 | 1.1% | 2% | Last Result |
| 103 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 90 | 1.3% | 99.2% | |
| 91 | 6% | 98% | |
| 92 | 6% | 92% | Majority |
| 93 | 14% | 86% | |
| 94 | 17% | 72% | Median |
| 95 | 22% | 54% | |
| 96 | 13% | 32% | |
| 97 | 8% | 19% | |
| 98 | 7% | 11% | |
| 99 | 3% | 5% | |
| 100 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 101 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 102 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 83 | 4% | 98% | |
| 84 | 6% | 94% | |
| 85 | 15% | 88% | |
| 86 | 14% | 73% | |
| 87 | 19% | 59% | Median |
| 88 | 16% | 40% | |
| 89 | 12% | 24% | |
| 90 | 7% | 12% | |
| 91 | 2% | 5% | |
| 92 | 1.2% | 2% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 94 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 74 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 75 | 3% | 98% | |
| 76 | 8% | 95% | |
| 77 | 15% | 87% | |
| 78 | 12% | 72% | |
| 79 | 24% | 60% | Median |
| 80 | 15% | 36% | |
| 81 | 9% | 20% | |
| 82 | 7% | 11% | |
| 83 | 3% | 4% | |
| 84 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 85 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 72 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 73 | 5% | 98% | |
| 74 | 7% | 93% | |
| 75 | 13% | 86% | |
| 76 | 16% | 73% | Median |
| 77 | 20% | 58% | |
| 78 | 19% | 38% | |
| 79 | 6% | 19% | |
| 80 | 7% | 13% | |
| 81 | 3% | 5% | Last Result |
| 82 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 60 | 4% | 98% | |
| 61 | 8% | 94% | |
| 62 | 13% | 86% | |
| 63 | 22% | 73% | |
| 64 | 22% | 50% | Median |
| 65 | 10% | 28% | |
| 66 | 10% | 18% | |
| 67 | 4% | 8% | |
| 68 | 2% | 3% | |
| 69 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 1.4% | 99.5% | |
| 56 | 4% | 98% | |
| 57 | 9% | 94% | |
| 58 | 11% | 86% | |
| 59 | 23% | 75% | |
| 60 | 18% | 52% | Median |
| 61 | 12% | 34% | |
| 62 | 14% | 22% | |
| 63 | 5% | 7% | |
| 64 | 2% | 3% | |
| 65 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 1.2% | 99.6% | |
| 54 | 5% | 98% | |
| 55 | 7% | 94% | |
| 56 | 12% | 87% | |
| 57 | 20% | 75% | Median |
| 58 | 24% | 55% | |
| 59 | 13% | 31% | |
| 60 | 8% | 19% | |
| 61 | 7% | 10% | |
| 62 | 2% | 3% | |
| 63 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 40 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 41 | 3% | 98% | |
| 42 | 7% | 96% | |
| 43 | 25% | 88% | |
| 44 | 12% | 64% | |
| 45 | 22% | 52% | Median |
| 46 | 18% | 30% | |
| 47 | 7% | 12% | |
| 48 | 3% | 5% | |
| 49 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 39 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 40 | 9% | 96% | Last Result |
| 41 | 16% | 87% | |
| 42 | 22% | 71% | Median |
| 43 | 20% | 48% | |
| 44 | 15% | 28% | |
| 45 | 7% | 13% | |
| 46 | 4% | 6% | |
| 47 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Market
- Commissioner(s): ÖSTERREICH
- Fieldwork period: 22–30 July 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 2000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.19%