Opinion Poll by Market for ÖSTERREICH, 5–6 August 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs |
16.2% |
27.0% |
25.7–28.3% |
25.4–28.7% |
25.1–29.0% |
24.5–29.6% |
Österreichische Volkspartei |
37.5% |
23.0% |
21.8–24.2% |
21.5–24.6% |
21.2–24.9% |
20.7–25.5% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs |
21.2% |
22.0% |
20.8–23.2% |
20.5–23.6% |
20.2–23.9% |
19.7–24.5% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum |
8.1% |
10.0% |
9.2–10.9% |
8.9–11.2% |
8.7–11.4% |
8.4–11.9% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative |
13.9% |
8.0% |
7.3–8.8% |
7.1–9.1% |
6.9–9.3% |
6.6–9.7% |
Bierpartei |
0.0% |
5.0% |
4.4–5.7% |
4.3–5.9% |
4.1–6.1% |
3.9–6.4% |
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs |
0.7% |
2.0% |
1.6–2.5% |
1.6–2.6% |
1.5–2.7% |
1.3–3.0% |
Liste Madeleine Petrovic |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.8–1.4% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.5% |
0.5–1.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
31 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
32 |
0% |
100% |
|
33 |
0% |
100% |
|
34 |
0% |
100% |
|
35 |
0% |
100% |
|
36 |
0% |
100% |
|
37 |
0% |
100% |
|
38 |
0% |
100% |
|
39 |
0% |
100% |
|
40 |
0% |
100% |
|
41 |
0% |
100% |
|
42 |
0% |
100% |
|
43 |
0% |
100% |
|
44 |
0% |
100% |
|
45 |
0% |
100% |
|
46 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
47 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
48 |
2% |
99.3% |
|
49 |
7% |
98% |
|
50 |
10% |
91% |
|
51 |
15% |
81% |
|
52 |
19% |
66% |
Median |
53 |
26% |
47% |
|
54 |
10% |
21% |
|
55 |
6% |
10% |
|
56 |
3% |
5% |
|
57 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
58 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
59 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
39 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
40 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
41 |
3% |
98.8% |
|
42 |
9% |
96% |
|
43 |
16% |
87% |
|
44 |
22% |
71% |
Median |
45 |
21% |
49% |
|
46 |
12% |
28% |
|
47 |
9% |
15% |
|
48 |
4% |
6% |
|
49 |
2% |
2% |
|
50 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
51 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
37 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
38 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
39 |
5% |
98.7% |
|
40 |
8% |
94% |
Last Result |
41 |
14% |
86% |
|
42 |
29% |
72% |
Median |
43 |
20% |
43% |
|
44 |
12% |
23% |
|
45 |
6% |
10% |
|
46 |
3% |
5% |
|
47 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
48 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
49 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.2% |
100% |
Last Result |
16 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
17 |
6% |
98% |
|
18 |
13% |
92% |
|
19 |
28% |
79% |
|
20 |
32% |
51% |
Median |
21 |
16% |
19% |
|
22 |
3% |
3% |
|
23 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
13 |
6% |
99.1% |
|
14 |
20% |
93% |
|
15 |
33% |
73% |
Median |
16 |
27% |
40% |
|
17 |
10% |
14% |
|
18 |
3% |
3% |
|
19 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Bierpartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bierpartei page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
2% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
98% |
|
2 |
0% |
98% |
|
3 |
0% |
98% |
|
4 |
0% |
98% |
|
5 |
0% |
98% |
|
6 |
0% |
98% |
|
7 |
2% |
98% |
|
8 |
9% |
96% |
|
9 |
43% |
87% |
Median |
10 |
34% |
44% |
|
11 |
10% |
11% |
|
12 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
13 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistische Partei Österreichs page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Liste Madeleine Petrovic
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liste Madeleine Petrovic page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei |
102 |
97 |
99.4% |
94–100 |
93–101 |
93–102 |
91–104 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs |
71 |
95 |
92% |
92–98 |
91–98 |
91–99 |
89–101 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs |
111 |
87 |
2% |
84–90 |
84–91 |
83–91 |
82–93 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative |
112 |
79 |
0% |
77–82 |
76–83 |
75–83 |
73–84 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative |
81 |
77 |
0% |
74–80 |
73–80 |
73–81 |
71–83 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum |
86 |
64 |
0% |
62–67 |
61–67 |
60–68 |
58–69 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative |
97 |
60 |
0% |
57–62 |
57–63 |
56–64 |
55–65 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative |
66 |
58 |
0% |
55–60 |
54–61 |
54–62 |
53–63 |
Österreichische Volkspartei |
71 |
44 |
0% |
42–47 |
42–48 |
41–48 |
40–50 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs |
40 |
42 |
0% |
40–45 |
39–45 |
39–46 |
38–47 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
90 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
91 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
92 |
2% |
99.4% |
Majority |
93 |
4% |
98% |
|
94 |
8% |
94% |
|
95 |
16% |
85% |
|
96 |
17% |
69% |
Median |
97 |
19% |
53% |
|
98 |
15% |
34% |
|
99 |
9% |
19% |
|
100 |
5% |
10% |
|
101 |
2% |
5% |
|
102 |
1.3% |
3% |
Last Result |
103 |
0.7% |
1.4% |
|
104 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
105 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
106 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
107 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
71 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
72 |
0% |
100% |
|
73 |
0% |
100% |
|
74 |
0% |
100% |
|
75 |
0% |
100% |
|
76 |
0% |
100% |
|
77 |
0% |
100% |
|
78 |
0% |
100% |
|
79 |
0% |
100% |
|
80 |
0% |
100% |
|
81 |
0% |
100% |
|
82 |
0% |
100% |
|
83 |
0% |
100% |
|
84 |
0% |
100% |
|
85 |
0% |
100% |
|
86 |
0% |
100% |
|
87 |
0% |
100% |
|
88 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
89 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
90 |
0.3% |
99.2% |
|
91 |
7% |
98.9% |
|
92 |
15% |
92% |
Majority |
93 |
6% |
77% |
|
94 |
10% |
72% |
Median |
95 |
41% |
61% |
|
96 |
6% |
20% |
|
97 |
4% |
14% |
|
98 |
6% |
10% |
|
99 |
2% |
4% |
|
100 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
101 |
0.9% |
1.2% |
|
102 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
103 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
104 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
105 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
106 |
0% |
0% |
|
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
80 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
81 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
82 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
83 |
3% |
98% |
|
84 |
11% |
95% |
|
85 |
12% |
85% |
|
86 |
19% |
73% |
Median |
87 |
16% |
54% |
|
88 |
14% |
38% |
|
89 |
11% |
23% |
|
90 |
7% |
12% |
|
91 |
3% |
6% |
|
92 |
1.4% |
2% |
Majority |
93 |
0.6% |
0.9% |
|
94 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
95 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
96 |
0% |
0% |
|
97 |
0% |
0% |
|
98 |
0% |
0% |
|
99 |
0% |
0% |
|
100 |
0% |
0% |
|
101 |
0% |
0% |
|
102 |
0% |
0% |
|
103 |
0% |
0% |
|
104 |
0% |
0% |
|
105 |
0% |
0% |
|
106 |
0% |
0% |
|
107 |
0% |
0% |
|
108 |
0% |
0% |
|
109 |
0% |
0% |
|
110 |
0% |
0% |
|
111 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
72 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
73 |
0.5% |
99.7% |
|
74 |
1.5% |
99.2% |
|
75 |
2% |
98% |
|
76 |
5% |
96% |
|
77 |
6% |
91% |
|
78 |
18% |
84% |
|
79 |
27% |
66% |
Median |
80 |
14% |
39% |
|
81 |
11% |
25% |
|
82 |
8% |
14% |
|
83 |
4% |
6% |
|
84 |
2% |
2% |
|
85 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
86 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
87 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
88 |
0% |
0% |
|
89 |
0% |
0% |
|
90 |
0% |
0% |
|
91 |
0% |
0% |
|
92 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
93 |
0% |
0% |
|
94 |
0% |
0% |
|
95 |
0% |
0% |
|
96 |
0% |
0% |
|
97 |
0% |
0% |
|
98 |
0% |
0% |
|
99 |
0% |
0% |
|
100 |
0% |
0% |
|
101 |
0% |
0% |
|
102 |
0% |
0% |
|
103 |
0% |
0% |
|
104 |
0% |
0% |
|
105 |
0% |
0% |
|
106 |
0% |
0% |
|
107 |
0% |
0% |
|
108 |
0% |
0% |
|
109 |
0% |
0% |
|
110 |
0% |
0% |
|
111 |
0% |
0% |
|
112 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
70 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
71 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
72 |
1.1% |
99.3% |
|
73 |
3% |
98% |
|
74 |
8% |
95% |
|
75 |
9% |
87% |
|
76 |
20% |
78% |
|
77 |
14% |
58% |
Median |
78 |
22% |
44% |
|
79 |
11% |
22% |
|
80 |
7% |
11% |
|
81 |
2% |
4% |
Last Result |
82 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
83 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
84 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
85 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
86 |
0% |
0% |
|
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
57 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
58 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
59 |
1.3% |
99.2% |
|
60 |
3% |
98% |
|
61 |
5% |
95% |
|
62 |
10% |
91% |
|
63 |
19% |
81% |
|
64 |
26% |
62% |
Median |
65 |
16% |
35% |
|
66 |
9% |
20% |
|
67 |
7% |
11% |
|
68 |
3% |
4% |
|
69 |
0.7% |
1.0% |
|
70 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
71 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
|
77 |
0% |
0% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
|
79 |
0% |
0% |
|
80 |
0% |
0% |
|
81 |
0% |
0% |
|
82 |
0% |
0% |
|
83 |
0% |
0% |
|
84 |
0% |
0% |
|
85 |
0% |
0% |
|
86 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
53 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
54 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
55 |
1.1% |
99.6% |
|
56 |
3% |
98.5% |
|
57 |
8% |
96% |
|
58 |
14% |
88% |
|
59 |
22% |
74% |
Median |
60 |
18% |
52% |
|
61 |
14% |
34% |
|
62 |
10% |
19% |
|
63 |
5% |
9% |
|
64 |
3% |
4% |
|
65 |
0.9% |
1.2% |
|
66 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
67 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
|
77 |
0% |
0% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
|
79 |
0% |
0% |
|
80 |
0% |
0% |
|
81 |
0% |
0% |
|
82 |
0% |
0% |
|
83 |
0% |
0% |
|
84 |
0% |
0% |
|
85 |
0% |
0% |
|
86 |
0% |
0% |
|
87 |
0% |
0% |
|
88 |
0% |
0% |
|
89 |
0% |
0% |
|
90 |
0% |
0% |
|
91 |
0% |
0% |
|
92 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
93 |
0% |
0% |
|
94 |
0% |
0% |
|
95 |
0% |
0% |
|
96 |
0% |
0% |
|
97 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
51 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
52 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
53 |
1.4% |
99.7% |
|
54 |
5% |
98% |
|
55 |
8% |
94% |
|
56 |
15% |
86% |
|
57 |
18% |
71% |
Median |
58 |
22% |
52% |
|
59 |
15% |
30% |
|
60 |
8% |
15% |
|
61 |
4% |
7% |
|
62 |
2% |
3% |
|
63 |
0.8% |
1.1% |
|
64 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
65 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
39 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
40 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
41 |
3% |
98.8% |
|
42 |
9% |
96% |
|
43 |
16% |
87% |
|
44 |
22% |
71% |
Median |
45 |
21% |
49% |
|
46 |
12% |
28% |
|
47 |
9% |
15% |
|
48 |
4% |
6% |
|
49 |
2% |
2% |
|
50 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
51 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
37 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
38 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
39 |
5% |
98.7% |
|
40 |
8% |
94% |
Last Result |
41 |
14% |
86% |
|
42 |
29% |
72% |
Median |
43 |
20% |
43% |
|
44 |
12% |
23% |
|
45 |
6% |
10% |
|
46 |
3% |
5% |
|
47 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
48 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
49 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Market
- Commissioner(s): ÖSTERREICH
- Fieldwork period: 5–6 August 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 2000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.27%