Opinion Poll by Market for ÖSTERREICH, 5–6 August 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 27.0% 25.7–28.3% 25.4–28.7% 25.1–29.0% 24.5–29.6%
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 23.0% 21.8–24.2% 21.5–24.6% 21.2–24.9% 20.7–25.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 22.0% 20.8–23.2% 20.5–23.6% 20.2–23.9% 19.7–24.5%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.4% 8.4–11.9%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Bierpartei 0.0% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.4%
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs 0.7% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.3–3.0%
Liste Madeleine Petrovic 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 52 50–55 49–55 49–56 47–57
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 44 42–47 42–48 41–48 40–50
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 42 40–45 39–45 39–46 38–47
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 20 18–21 17–21 17–22 16–23
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 15 14–17 13–17 13–18 12–18
Bierpartei 0 9 8–11 8–11 7–11 0–12
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liste Madeleine Petrovic 0 0 0 0 0 0

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.6% 99.8%  
48 2% 99.3%  
49 7% 98%  
50 10% 91%  
51 15% 81%  
52 19% 66% Median
53 26% 47%  
54 10% 21%  
55 6% 10%  
56 3% 5%  
57 1.3% 2%  
58 0.3% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 1.0% 99.8%  
41 3% 98.8%  
42 9% 96%  
43 16% 87%  
44 22% 71% Median
45 21% 49%  
46 12% 28%  
47 9% 15%  
48 4% 6%  
49 2% 2%  
50 0.4% 0.6%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 1.0% 99.8%  
39 5% 98.7%  
40 8% 94% Last Result
41 14% 86%  
42 29% 72% Median
43 20% 43%  
44 12% 23%  
45 6% 10%  
46 3% 5%  
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100% Last Result
16 2% 99.7%  
17 6% 98%  
18 13% 92%  
19 28% 79%  
20 32% 51% Median
21 16% 19%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0.5% 0.5%  
24 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.8% 100%  
13 6% 99.1%  
14 20% 93%  
15 33% 73% Median
16 27% 40%  
17 10% 14%  
18 3% 3%  
19 0.4% 0.4%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Bierpartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bierpartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 2% 98%  
8 9% 96%  
9 43% 87% Median
10 34% 44%  
11 10% 11%  
12 0.9% 1.0%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Kommunistische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Liste Madeleine Petrovic

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liste Madeleine Petrovic page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 102 97 99.4% 94–100 93–101 93–102 91–104
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 71 95 92% 92–98 91–98 91–99 89–101
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 87 2% 84–90 84–91 83–91 82–93
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 112 79 0% 77–82 76–83 75–83 73–84
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 81 77 0% 74–80 73–80 73–81 71–83
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 64 0% 62–67 61–67 60–68 58–69
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 60 0% 57–62 57–63 56–64 55–65
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 58 0% 55–60 54–61 54–62 53–63
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 44 0% 42–47 42–48 41–48 40–50
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 42 0% 40–45 39–45 39–46 38–47

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0.1% 100%  
91 0.4% 99.8%  
92 2% 99.4% Majority
93 4% 98%  
94 8% 94%  
95 16% 85%  
96 17% 69% Median
97 19% 53%  
98 15% 34%  
99 9% 19%  
100 5% 10%  
101 2% 5%  
102 1.3% 3% Last Result
103 0.7% 1.4%  
104 0.3% 0.7%  
105 0.3% 0.4%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.6% 99.8%  
90 0.3% 99.2%  
91 7% 98.9%  
92 15% 92% Majority
93 6% 77%  
94 10% 72% Median
95 41% 61%  
96 6% 20%  
97 4% 14%  
98 6% 10%  
99 2% 4%  
100 0.9% 2%  
101 0.9% 1.2%  
102 0.1% 0.3%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.3% 99.9%  
82 2% 99.6%  
83 3% 98%  
84 11% 95%  
85 12% 85%  
86 19% 73% Median
87 16% 54%  
88 14% 38%  
89 11% 23%  
90 7% 12%  
91 3% 6%  
92 1.4% 2% Majority
93 0.6% 0.9%  
94 0.2% 0.3%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.2% 100%  
73 0.5% 99.7%  
74 1.5% 99.2%  
75 2% 98%  
76 5% 96%  
77 6% 91%  
78 18% 84%  
79 27% 66% Median
80 14% 39%  
81 11% 25%  
82 8% 14%  
83 4% 6%  
84 2% 2%  
85 0.3% 0.5%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.6% 99.9%  
72 1.1% 99.3%  
73 3% 98%  
74 8% 95%  
75 9% 87%  
76 20% 78%  
77 14% 58% Median
78 22% 44%  
79 11% 22%  
80 7% 11%  
81 2% 4% Last Result
82 1.3% 2%  
83 0.5% 0.6%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.6% 99.9%  
59 1.3% 99.2%  
60 3% 98%  
61 5% 95%  
62 10% 91%  
63 19% 81%  
64 26% 62% Median
65 16% 35%  
66 9% 20%  
67 7% 11%  
68 3% 4%  
69 0.7% 1.0%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.3% 99.9%  
55 1.1% 99.6%  
56 3% 98.5%  
57 8% 96%  
58 14% 88%  
59 22% 74% Median
60 18% 52%  
61 14% 34%  
62 10% 19%  
63 5% 9%  
64 3% 4%  
65 0.9% 1.2%  
66 0.3% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 1.4% 99.7%  
54 5% 98%  
55 8% 94%  
56 15% 86%  
57 18% 71% Median
58 22% 52%  
59 15% 30%  
60 8% 15%  
61 4% 7%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.8% 1.1%  
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 1.0% 99.8%  
41 3% 98.8%  
42 9% 96%  
43 16% 87%  
44 22% 71% Median
45 21% 49%  
46 12% 28%  
47 9% 15%  
48 4% 6%  
49 2% 2%  
50 0.4% 0.6%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 1.0% 99.8%  
39 5% 98.7%  
40 8% 94% Last Result
41 14% 86%  
42 29% 72% Median
43 20% 43%  
44 12% 23%  
45 6% 10%  
46 3% 5%  
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations