Opinion Poll by Market for ÖSTERREIC, 19–20 August 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 29.0% 27.7–30.3% 27.4–30.7% 27.1–31.0% 26.4–31.7%
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 22.0% 20.8–23.2% 20.5–23.6% 20.2–23.9% 19.7–24.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 21.0% 19.9–22.2% 19.5–22.6% 19.3–22.8% 18.7–23.4%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 11.0% 10.1–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–12.9%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Bierpartei 0.0% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.4%
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs 0.7% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.3–3.0%
Liste Madeleine Petrovic 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
Wandel 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 56 54–59 53–60 53–60 51–62
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 42 40–45 39–45 39–46 38–47
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 40 38–43 38–44 37–44 36–45
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 21 19–23 19–23 18–24 18–25
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 13 12–15 11–15 11–15 11–16
Bierpartei 0 9 8–11 8–11 8–11 0–12
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liste Madeleine Petrovic 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wandel 0 0 0 0 0 0

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.6% 99.9%  
52 1.1% 99.3%  
53 4% 98%  
54 8% 94%  
55 12% 86%  
56 26% 74% Median
57 19% 48%  
58 15% 30%  
59 9% 14%  
60 4% 5%  
61 1.3% 2%  
62 0.4% 0.5%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 2% 99.9%  
39 3% 98%  
40 6% 95%  
41 16% 89%  
42 23% 73% Median
43 25% 49%  
44 10% 24%  
45 10% 14%  
46 2% 4%  
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.4% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.9% 99.9%  
37 2% 99.0%  
38 16% 97%  
39 11% 81%  
40 25% 71% Last Result, Median
41 20% 45%  
42 13% 25%  
43 6% 13%  
44 6% 7%  
45 0.7% 1.1%  
46 0.3% 0.4%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0.3% 100%  
18 3% 99.7%  
19 8% 97%  
20 27% 89%  
21 21% 62% Median
22 18% 41%  
23 20% 23%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.7% 0.8%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 7% 99.6%  
12 22% 93%  
13 37% 71% Median
14 23% 34%  
15 8% 10%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0.4% 0.4%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Bierpartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bierpartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100% Last Result
1 0% 98.9%  
2 0% 98.9%  
3 0% 98.9%  
4 0% 98.9%  
5 0% 98.9%  
6 0% 98.9%  
7 1.2% 98.9%  
8 16% 98%  
9 34% 82% Median
10 35% 48%  
11 12% 13%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Kommunistische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Liste Madeleine Petrovic

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liste Madeleine Petrovic page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Wandel

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Wandel page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 102 99 100% 96–102 95–102 95–103 93–105
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 71 97 99.5% 94–99 93–101 93–101 92–104
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 83 0% 80–85 80–86 80–87 78–89
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 112 77 0% 74–79 73–80 73–81 71–83
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 81 74 0% 72–78 72–78 71–79 69–81
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 64 0% 61–66 60–67 60–68 59–69
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 55 0% 53–58 52–59 52–60 51–61
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 53 0% 51–56 51–57 50–58 49–59
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 42 0% 40–45 39–45 39–46 38–47
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 40 0% 38–43 38–44 37–44 36–45

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0.1% 100% Majority
93 0.5% 99.9%  
94 1.3% 99.4%  
95 6% 98%  
96 4% 92%  
97 8% 87%  
98 17% 79% Median
99 24% 62%  
100 14% 38%  
101 11% 24%  
102 9% 13% Last Result
103 2% 4%  
104 1.0% 2%  
105 0.4% 0.6%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0.2% 100%  
91 0.3% 99.8%  
92 1.2% 99.5% Majority
93 3% 98%  
94 10% 95%  
95 10% 85%  
96 23% 75% Median
97 11% 52%  
98 16% 41%  
99 16% 25%  
100 4% 10%  
101 4% 6%  
102 1.1% 2%  
103 0.3% 0.9%  
104 0.4% 0.6%  
105 0.2% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.4% 99.9%  
78 0.9% 99.5%  
79 0.4% 98.7%  
80 17% 98%  
81 13% 81%  
82 5% 69% Median
83 32% 64%  
84 5% 32%  
85 18% 28%  
86 6% 10%  
87 2% 4%  
88 1.3% 2%  
89 0.4% 0.7%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.6% 99.8%  
72 2% 99.3%  
73 3% 98%  
74 11% 94%  
75 13% 83%  
76 16% 70% Median
77 13% 54%  
78 20% 41%  
79 13% 21%  
80 4% 8%  
81 2% 4%  
82 0.8% 1.4%  
83 0.4% 0.6%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.2% 100%  
69 0.4% 99.7%  
70 0.6% 99.3%  
71 3% 98.7%  
72 13% 96%  
73 17% 83%  
74 17% 67% Median
75 19% 50%  
76 11% 31%  
77 6% 20%  
78 10% 14%  
79 3% 4%  
80 1.1% 2%  
81 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.2% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.8%  
59 2% 99.7%  
60 6% 98%  
61 3% 91%  
62 17% 88%  
63 20% 71% Median
64 11% 51%  
65 24% 40%  
66 11% 16%  
67 2% 5%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.7% 1.0%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.4% 100%  
51 0.6% 99.6%  
52 6% 98.9%  
53 5% 93%  
54 18% 88%  
55 22% 70% Median
56 18% 49%  
57 13% 31%  
58 11% 18%  
59 4% 7%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.8% 1.0%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.9%  
49 0.6% 99.6%  
50 3% 99.1%  
51 11% 96%  
52 22% 85%  
53 22% 63% Median
54 10% 42%  
55 12% 32%  
56 11% 20%  
57 7% 9%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.5% 0.6%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 2% 99.9%  
39 3% 98%  
40 6% 95%  
41 16% 89%  
42 23% 73% Median
43 25% 49%  
44 10% 24%  
45 10% 14%  
46 2% 4%  
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.4% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.9% 99.9%  
37 2% 99.0%  
38 16% 97%  
39 11% 81%  
40 25% 71% Last Result, Median
41 20% 45%  
42 13% 25%  
43 6% 13%  
44 6% 7%  
45 0.7% 1.1%  
46 0.3% 0.4%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations