Opinion Poll by Market, 26–27 August 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 27.0% 25.7–28.3% 25.4–28.7% 25.1–29.0% 24.5–29.6%
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 23.0% 21.8–24.2% 21.5–24.6% 21.2–24.9% 20.7–25.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 20.0% 18.9–21.2% 18.6–21.5% 18.3–21.8% 17.8–22.4%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.3% 10.6–13.5% 10.2–14.0%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Bierpartei 0.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3%
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs 0.7% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.1%
Liste Madeleine Petrovic 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
Wandel 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 54 51–58 50–58 49–59 48–60
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 46 43–48 42–49 42–50 41–51
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 40 37–42 36–43 36–44 35–45
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 23 22–25 21–26 21–27 20–28
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 16 14–17 14–18 13–18 13–19
Bierpartei 0 0 0–9 0–9 0–9 0–10
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs 0 0 0 0 0 0–8
Liste Madeleine Petrovic 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wandel 0 0 0 0 0 0

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0.2% 100%  
48 1.0% 99.8%  
49 2% 98.8%  
50 6% 97%  
51 8% 91%  
52 11% 82%  
53 10% 72%  
54 14% 62% Median
55 19% 48%  
56 11% 29%  
57 7% 18%  
58 8% 10%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.6% 0.8%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.6%  
42 3% 98%  
43 8% 95%  
44 15% 86%  
45 13% 72%  
46 19% 59% Median
47 16% 40%  
48 16% 24%  
49 5% 8%  
50 2% 3%  
51 1.0% 1.3%  
52 0.3% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.9% 99.7%  
36 5% 98.9%  
37 8% 93%  
38 12% 85%  
39 23% 73%  
40 23% 50% Last Result, Median
41 11% 27%  
42 7% 16%  
43 6% 9%  
44 3% 4%  
45 0.7% 1.0%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.9% 99.8%  
21 5% 99.0%  
22 18% 94%  
23 27% 76% Median
24 22% 48%  
25 16% 26%  
26 6% 10%  
27 3% 4%  
28 0.7% 0.9%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.5% 100%  
13 3% 99.5%  
14 12% 96%  
15 23% 84%  
16 28% 61% Median
17 25% 33%  
18 7% 8%  
19 0.9% 1.2%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Bierpartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bierpartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 52% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 48%  
2 0% 48%  
3 0% 48%  
4 0% 48%  
5 0% 48%  
6 0% 48%  
7 7% 48%  
8 27% 41%  
9 14% 15%  
10 0.9% 1.0%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Kommunistische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.0%  
2 0% 1.0%  
3 0% 1.0%  
4 0% 1.0%  
5 0% 1.0%  
6 0% 1.0%  
7 0.4% 1.0%  
8 0.6% 0.6%  
9 0% 0%  

Liste Madeleine Petrovic

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liste Madeleine Petrovic page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Wandel

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Wandel page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 102 100 99.8% 96–104 95–105 94–106 92–107
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 71 94 73% 89–98 89–99 88–99 86–101
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 112 85 0.8% 81–89 81–90 80–91 79–92
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 86 1.3% 82–89 81–90 80–91 79–93
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 81 79 0% 76–83 75–84 74–85 72–86
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 70 0% 66–73 65–74 64–74 63–76
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 62 0% 59–65 58–66 57–66 55–68
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 55 0% 52–59 51–60 51–60 50–61
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 46 0% 43–48 42–49 42–50 41–51
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 40 0% 37–42 36–43 36–44 35–45

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0.1% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.6% 99.8% Majority
93 2% 99.2%  
94 2% 98%  
95 4% 95%  
96 5% 91%  
97 9% 86%  
98 14% 77%  
99 10% 64%  
100 9% 53% Median
101 8% 44%  
102 9% 36% Last Result
103 15% 28%  
104 5% 12%  
105 5% 8%  
106 1.2% 3%  
107 0.9% 1.3%  
108 0.3% 0.4%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.4% 99.8%  
87 0.6% 99.4%  
88 4% 98.8%  
89 6% 95%  
90 7% 89%  
91 8% 82%  
92 8% 73% Majority
93 15% 66%  
94 13% 51% Median
95 8% 38%  
96 9% 30%  
97 7% 21%  
98 8% 15%  
99 5% 7%  
100 1.2% 2%  
101 0.4% 0.6%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.2% 100%  
78 0.3% 99.8%  
79 2% 99.5%  
80 2% 98%  
81 8% 96%  
82 5% 88%  
83 11% 83%  
84 12% 72%  
85 15% 60% Median
86 12% 45%  
87 10% 33%  
88 7% 23%  
89 7% 16%  
90 6% 9%  
91 2% 3%  
92 0.5% 0.8% Majority
93 0.2% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.3% 99.9%  
79 0.6% 99.6%  
80 3% 99.0%  
81 4% 96%  
82 13% 92%  
83 7% 79%  
84 6% 73%  
85 11% 66%  
86 17% 55% Median
87 20% 38%  
88 6% 18%  
89 4% 12%  
90 4% 8%  
91 3% 5%  
92 0.7% 1.3% Majority
93 0.5% 0.6%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.2% 100%  
72 0.3% 99.7%  
73 0.9% 99.4%  
74 2% 98.6%  
75 6% 96%  
76 7% 90%  
77 17% 83%  
78 12% 66%  
79 8% 54% Median
80 19% 46%  
81 10% 27% Last Result
82 7% 18%  
83 5% 11%  
84 2% 5%  
85 1.2% 3%  
86 1.4% 2%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.8%  
64 2% 99.4%  
65 5% 97%  
66 8% 92%  
67 9% 84%  
68 10% 75%  
69 14% 65% Median
70 13% 51%  
71 16% 38%  
72 9% 22%  
73 6% 12%  
74 4% 6%  
75 1.3% 2%  
76 0.6% 0.8%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.4% 99.8%  
56 2% 99.5%  
57 2% 98%  
58 5% 95%  
59 10% 91%  
60 12% 81%  
61 17% 69%  
62 11% 52% Median
63 18% 41%  
64 9% 23%  
65 8% 13%  
66 3% 5%  
67 2% 2%  
68 0.4% 0.6%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.4% 99.9%  
50 0.9% 99.6%  
51 4% 98.7%  
52 6% 94%  
53 7% 88%  
54 14% 81%  
55 20% 67%  
56 16% 47% Median
57 13% 31%  
58 6% 17%  
59 5% 11%  
60 3% 5%  
61 2% 2%  
62 0.2% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.6%  
42 3% 98%  
43 8% 95%  
44 15% 86%  
45 13% 72%  
46 19% 59% Median
47 16% 40%  
48 16% 24%  
49 5% 8%  
50 2% 3%  
51 1.0% 1.3%  
52 0.3% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.9% 99.7%  
36 5% 98.9%  
37 8% 93%  
38 12% 85%  
39 23% 73%  
40 23% 50% Last Result, Median
41 11% 27%  
42 7% 16%  
43 6% 9%  
44 3% 4%  
45 0.7% 1.0%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations