Opinion Poll by INSA for eXXpress, 9–11 September 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 29.0% 27.2–30.9% 26.7–31.4% 26.3–31.9% 25.4–32.8%
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.7% 19.7–26.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.6% 17.8–24.5%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
Bierpartei 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs 0.7% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 56 53–60 52–61 51–63 49–64
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 45 41–48 40–49 40–50 38–52
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 41 38–44 37–45 36–46 34–48
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 15 13–18 13–18 12–19 11–20
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 15 13–18 13–18 12–19 11–20
Bierpartei 0 10 8–11 0–12 0–12 0–13
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs 0 0 0 0–7 0–8 0–8

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.5% 99.7%  
50 1.0% 99.2%  
51 2% 98%  
52 5% 96%  
53 7% 91%  
54 8% 84%  
55 11% 76%  
56 16% 65% Median
57 13% 49%  
58 10% 36%  
59 10% 26%  
60 8% 16%  
61 4% 9%  
62 2% 5%  
63 1.4% 3%  
64 0.6% 1.1%  
65 0.3% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.6% 99.7%  
39 1.4% 99.2%  
40 3% 98%  
41 5% 95%  
42 9% 90%  
43 12% 80%  
44 15% 68%  
45 13% 53% Median
46 14% 40%  
47 11% 26%  
48 7% 15%  
49 4% 8%  
50 3% 5%  
51 1.2% 2%  
52 0.5% 0.8%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.8%  
35 1.1% 99.4%  
36 3% 98%  
37 5% 96%  
38 8% 90%  
39 13% 82%  
40 15% 69% Last Result
41 15% 54% Median
42 14% 39%  
43 9% 24%  
44 7% 15%  
45 4% 8%  
46 2% 4%  
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.5% 0.7%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.7% 99.9%  
12 3% 99.3%  
13 10% 96%  
14 19% 86%  
15 23% 67% Median
16 20% 44%  
17 13% 23%  
18 6% 10%  
19 3% 4%  
20 1.0% 1.3%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.7% 99.9%  
12 3% 99.3%  
13 9% 96%  
14 16% 88%  
15 23% 72% Last Result, Median
16 22% 49%  
17 16% 27%  
18 7% 11%  
19 3% 4%  
20 0.8% 1.1%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Bierpartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bierpartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100% Last Result
1 0% 94%  
2 0% 94%  
3 0% 94%  
4 0% 94%  
5 0% 94%  
6 0% 94%  
7 0.7% 94%  
8 13% 94%  
9 26% 80%  
10 33% 54% Median
11 15% 21%  
12 4% 6%  
13 1.3% 2%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Kommunistische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 6%  
2 0% 6%  
3 0% 6%  
4 0% 6%  
5 0% 6%  
6 0% 6%  
7 2% 6%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.4% 0.5%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 102 101 99.7% 97–106 95–107 94–108 92–111
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 71 97 96% 93–102 92–103 91–104 88–107
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 85 4% 81–90 80–91 79–92 77–95
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 76 0% 72–80 70–81 69–82 67–84
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 72 0% 67–76 66–77 65–78 63–80
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 60 0% 56–64 55–65 54–66 53–69
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 60 0% 56–64 55–65 54–66 52–68
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 56 0% 53–60 51–61 51–62 49–64
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 45 0% 41–48 40–49 40–50 38–52
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 41 0% 38–44 37–45 36–46 34–48

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.2% 99.9%  
92 0.3% 99.7% Majority
93 0.7% 99.3%  
94 1.1% 98.6%  
95 2% 97%  
96 3% 95%  
97 6% 92%  
98 6% 86%  
99 9% 80%  
100 10% 71%  
101 13% 61% Median
102 11% 48% Last Result
103 11% 37%  
104 8% 26%  
105 7% 18%  
106 5% 11%  
107 3% 7%  
108 2% 4%  
109 1.1% 2%  
110 0.6% 1.2%  
111 0.3% 0.7%  
112 0.2% 0.3%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.2% 99.9%  
88 0.3% 99.7%  
89 0.6% 99.4%  
90 1.2% 98.8%  
91 2% 98%  
92 3% 96% Majority
93 5% 93%  
94 8% 88%  
95 9% 80%  
96 10% 71%  
97 12% 61% Median
98 12% 49%  
99 11% 36%  
100 8% 26%  
101 7% 17%  
102 4% 11%  
103 3% 7%  
104 2% 4%  
105 1.0% 2%  
106 0.5% 1.3%  
107 0.4% 0.8%  
108 0.2% 0.4%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.8%  
77 0.5% 99.6%  
78 1.0% 99.2%  
79 2% 98%  
80 3% 97%  
81 4% 94%  
82 7% 90%  
83 9% 83%  
84 10% 73%  
85 13% 63%  
86 11% 50% Median
87 11% 39%  
88 9% 28%  
89 7% 19%  
90 5% 12%  
91 3% 7%  
92 2% 4% Majority
93 1.2% 2%  
94 0.7% 1.3%  
95 0.3% 0.7%  
96 0.2% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.4% 99.7%  
68 0.9% 99.3%  
69 1.4% 98%  
70 3% 97%  
71 4% 94%  
72 7% 90%  
73 9% 83%  
74 11% 74%  
75 13% 63% Median
76 12% 50%  
77 11% 38%  
78 9% 27%  
79 7% 18%  
80 4% 11%  
81 3% 7%  
82 2% 4%  
83 1.1% 2%  
84 0.5% 0.9%  
85 0.2% 0.4%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.4% 99.8%  
64 0.7% 99.4%  
65 1.4% 98.7%  
66 3% 97%  
67 4% 94%  
68 6% 90%  
69 9% 83%  
70 12% 74%  
71 12% 62% Median
72 12% 51%  
73 11% 38%  
74 10% 27%  
75 6% 18%  
76 5% 12%  
77 3% 7%  
78 2% 4%  
79 0.9% 2%  
80 0.5% 0.9%  
81 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.8%  
53 0.9% 99.5%  
54 1.3% 98.6%  
55 4% 97%  
56 4% 93%  
57 11% 90%  
58 7% 79%  
59 17% 72%  
60 11% 55% Median
61 13% 45%  
62 11% 32%  
63 8% 21%  
64 5% 13%  
65 4% 8%  
66 2% 4%  
67 1.3% 2%  
68 0.4% 1.0%  
69 0.3% 0.5%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.8%  
53 0.7% 99.5%  
54 2% 98.8%  
55 3% 97%  
56 4% 94%  
57 6% 90%  
58 10% 83%  
59 13% 73%  
60 14% 61% Median
61 13% 46%  
62 11% 33%  
63 9% 22%  
64 6% 14%  
65 3% 8%  
66 2% 4%  
67 1.2% 2%  
68 0.5% 0.9%  
69 0.2% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.6% 99.7%  
50 1.4% 99.1%  
51 3% 98%  
52 5% 95%  
53 8% 90%  
54 12% 82%  
55 14% 70%  
56 14% 56% Median
57 13% 42%  
58 9% 29%  
59 7% 21%  
60 5% 13%  
61 3% 8%  
62 2% 5%  
63 1.3% 2%  
64 0.6% 1.0%  
65 0.3% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
67 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.6% 99.7%  
39 1.4% 99.2%  
40 3% 98%  
41 5% 95%  
42 9% 90%  
43 12% 80%  
44 15% 68%  
45 13% 53% Median
46 14% 40%  
47 11% 26%  
48 7% 15%  
49 4% 8%  
50 3% 5%  
51 1.2% 2%  
52 0.5% 0.8%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.8%  
35 1.1% 99.4%  
36 3% 98%  
37 5% 96%  
38 8% 90%  
39 13% 82%  
40 15% 69% Last Result
41 15% 54% Median
42 14% 39%  
43 9% 24%  
44 7% 15%  
45 4% 8%  
46 2% 4%  
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.5% 0.7%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations