Opinion Poll by Unique Research for Heute, 5–11 September 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 28.0% 26.0–30.1% 25.5–30.7% 25.0–31.2% 24.1–32.3%
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 25.0% 23.1–27.0% 22.6–27.6% 22.1–28.1% 21.2–29.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 21.0% 19.2–22.9% 18.7–23.5% 18.3–24.0% 17.5–24.9%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 9.0% 7.8–10.4% 7.5–10.8% 7.2–11.2% 6.7–11.9%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 8.0% 6.9–9.4% 6.6–9.8% 6.3–10.1% 5.8–10.8%
Bierpartei 0.0% 4.0% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3% 2.9–5.6% 2.5–6.1%
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs 0.7% 3.0% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.2% 2.0–4.4% 1.8–4.9%
Liste Madeleine Petrovic 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0% 0.4–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 55 51–59 49–61 48–62 46–64
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 49 45–53 44–54 43–56 41–58
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 41 37–45 36–46 35–47 34–49
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 17 15–20 14–21 14–22 13–23
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 15 13–18 12–19 12–19 11–21
Bierpartei 0 7 0–9 0–10 0–10 0–11
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs 0 0 0 0–8 0–8 0–9
Liste Madeleine Petrovic 0 0 0 0 0 0

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.4% 99.8%  
47 0.7% 99.4%  
48 2% 98.7%  
49 2% 97%  
50 4% 94%  
51 5% 91%  
52 8% 86%  
53 11% 77%  
54 11% 66%  
55 13% 55% Median
56 10% 42%  
57 10% 32%  
58 8% 22%  
59 5% 14%  
60 3% 9%  
61 2% 5%  
62 1.3% 3%  
63 1.1% 2%  
64 0.3% 0.5%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.7% 99.8%  
42 0.9% 99.0%  
43 2% 98%  
44 5% 96%  
45 5% 91%  
46 10% 86%  
47 6% 76%  
48 16% 70%  
49 10% 54% Median
50 8% 44%  
51 18% 35%  
52 2% 18%  
53 10% 16%  
54 2% 6%  
55 2% 4%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.1% 0.9%  
58 0.6% 0.8%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.8%  
34 0.7% 99.6%  
35 2% 98.9%  
36 3% 97%  
37 6% 94%  
38 8% 88%  
39 11% 80%  
40 12% 69% Last Result
41 15% 57% Median
42 10% 43%  
43 11% 33%  
44 11% 22%  
45 5% 12%  
46 2% 6%  
47 2% 4%  
48 1.3% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.8%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.4% 100%  
13 2% 99.6%  
14 5% 98%  
15 10% 92%  
16 16% 83%  
17 17% 66% Median
18 18% 49%  
19 14% 31%  
20 9% 17%  
21 5% 8%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.6% 1.0%  
24 0.2% 0.3%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 1.1% 99.8%  
12 5% 98.7%  
13 8% 94%  
14 18% 86%  
15 20% 68% Last Result, Median
16 17% 48%  
17 16% 31%  
18 7% 14%  
19 5% 7%  
20 1.4% 2%  
21 0.7% 0.9%  
22 0.2% 0.3%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Bierpartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bierpartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 48% 100% Last Result
1 0% 52%  
2 0% 52%  
3 0% 52%  
4 0% 52%  
5 0% 52%  
6 0% 52%  
7 4% 52% Median
8 28% 49%  
9 11% 21%  
10 7% 9%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.4% 0.4%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Kommunistische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 7%  
2 0% 7%  
3 0% 7%  
4 0% 7%  
5 0% 7%  
6 0% 7%  
7 2% 7%  
8 4% 5%  
9 0.9% 1.0%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Liste Madeleine Petrovic

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liste Madeleine Petrovic page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 102 104 99.8% 99–109 97–111 96–112 93–114
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 71 96 86% 91–101 89–103 88–104 85–107
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 90 37% 85–95 83–97 82–98 80–101
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 82 0.7% 77–87 75–89 74–90 72–92
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 74 0% 69–79 68–80 67–82 64–84
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 66 0% 62–71 60–73 59–74 57–76
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 65 0% 60–69 58–70 57–72 55–75
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 59 0% 54–63 53–64 52–66 50–68
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 49 0% 45–53 44–54 43–56 41–58
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 41 0% 37–45 36–46 35–47 34–49

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.8% Majority
93 0.4% 99.7%  
94 0.6% 99.3%  
95 1.1% 98.8%  
96 2% 98%  
97 1.3% 96%  
98 4% 94%  
99 5% 91%  
100 7% 85%  
101 9% 78%  
102 7% 69% Last Result
103 8% 62%  
104 9% 54% Median
105 8% 45%  
106 11% 37%  
107 6% 26%  
108 4% 20%  
109 6% 15%  
110 3% 9%  
111 2% 6%  
112 2% 4%  
113 0.5% 2%  
114 0.7% 1.1%  
115 0.2% 0.5%  
116 0.1% 0.2%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.9%  
85 0.3% 99.7%  
86 0.5% 99.5%  
87 0.9% 99.0%  
88 2% 98%  
89 2% 96%  
90 3% 94%  
91 5% 91%  
92 7% 86% Majority
93 8% 79%  
94 7% 71%  
95 9% 64%  
96 9% 55% Median
97 9% 47%  
98 10% 38%  
99 8% 28%  
100 6% 20%  
101 5% 14%  
102 3% 9%  
103 2% 6%  
104 1.3% 3%  
105 1.1% 2%  
106 0.4% 1.0%  
107 0.5% 0.6%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.8%  
80 0.3% 99.6%  
81 0.8% 99.2%  
82 2% 98%  
83 2% 97%  
84 4% 94%  
85 4% 91%  
86 5% 87%  
87 9% 81%  
88 8% 72%  
89 8% 64%  
90 11% 56% Median
91 8% 45%  
92 10% 37% Majority
93 6% 27%  
94 7% 21%  
95 6% 14%  
96 3% 9%  
97 2% 5%  
98 2% 3%  
99 0.8% 2%  
100 0.4% 1.0%  
101 0.3% 0.6%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.8%  
72 0.4% 99.6%  
73 0.7% 99.2%  
74 2% 98.5%  
75 2% 97%  
76 3% 95%  
77 6% 92%  
78 6% 85%  
79 7% 79%  
80 9% 72%  
81 8% 63% Median
82 8% 54%  
83 10% 46%  
84 10% 36%  
85 7% 26%  
86 6% 19%  
87 4% 13%  
88 4% 9%  
89 2% 5%  
90 2% 4%  
91 0.8% 2%  
92 0.3% 0.7% Majority
93 0.3% 0.5%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.8%  
65 0.7% 99.5%  
66 1.3% 98.8%  
67 2% 98%  
68 3% 96%  
69 5% 92%  
70 6% 88%  
71 8% 82%  
72 8% 73%  
73 9% 65% Median
74 12% 56%  
75 8% 44%  
76 8% 36%  
77 10% 28%  
78 6% 18%  
79 5% 12%  
80 3% 8%  
81 1.5% 5% Last Result
82 1.5% 3%  
83 0.8% 2%  
84 0.7% 1.0%  
85 0.2% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.7%  
58 0.7% 99.3%  
59 1.2% 98.6%  
60 4% 97%  
61 3% 94%  
62 6% 91%  
63 8% 85%  
64 7% 77%  
65 11% 70%  
66 10% 60% Median
67 11% 49%  
68 9% 38%  
69 8% 29%  
70 7% 21%  
71 5% 15%  
72 4% 9%  
73 3% 6%  
74 1.1% 3%  
75 0.9% 2%  
76 0.5% 0.7%  
77 0.2% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.4% 99.8%  
56 0.5% 99.4%  
57 1.4% 98.9%  
58 3% 97%  
59 4% 94%  
60 6% 91%  
61 7% 85%  
62 7% 78%  
63 11% 71%  
64 8% 60% Median
65 12% 51%  
66 11% 40%  
67 9% 29%  
68 6% 19%  
69 5% 13%  
70 3% 8%  
71 2% 5%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.7% 1.4%  
74 0.2% 0.8%  
75 0.4% 0.5%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 0.4% 99.6%  
51 1.3% 99.2%  
52 3% 98%  
53 3% 95%  
54 4% 92%  
55 8% 88%  
56 11% 80%  
57 10% 70%  
58 9% 59% Median
59 9% 50%  
60 9% 41%  
61 11% 32%  
62 10% 21%  
63 5% 12%  
64 2% 7%  
65 2% 5%  
66 1.4% 3% Last Result
67 1.0% 2%  
68 0.3% 0.6%  
69 0.1% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.7% 99.8%  
42 0.9% 99.0%  
43 2% 98%  
44 5% 96%  
45 5% 91%  
46 10% 86%  
47 6% 76%  
48 16% 70%  
49 10% 54% Median
50 8% 44%  
51 18% 35%  
52 2% 18%  
53 10% 16%  
54 2% 6%  
55 2% 4%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.1% 0.9%  
58 0.6% 0.8%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.8%  
34 0.7% 99.6%  
35 2% 98.9%  
36 3% 97%  
37 6% 94%  
38 8% 88%  
39 11% 80%  
40 12% 69% Last Result
41 15% 57% Median
42 10% 43%  
43 11% 33%  
44 11% 22%  
45 5% 12%  
46 2% 6%  
47 2% 4%  
48 1.3% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.8%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations