Opinion Poll by Market for ÖSTERREICH, 9–17 September 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 16.2% | 27.0% | 25.7–28.3% | 25.3–28.6% | 25.0–28.9% | 24.5–29.6% |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 37.5% | 25.0% | 23.7–26.2% | 23.4–26.6% | 23.1–26.9% | 22.5–27.5% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 21.2% | 20.0% | 18.8–21.1% | 18.5–21.5% | 18.2–21.8% | 17.7–22.3% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 8.1% | 11.0% | 10.1–11.9% | 9.9–12.2% | 9.6–12.4% | 9.3–12.9% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 13.9% | 8.0% | 7.3–8.8% | 7.1–9.1% | 6.9–9.3% | 6.6–9.7% |
| Kommunistische Partei Österreichs | 0.7% | 4.0% | 3.5–4.6% | 3.3–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.0–5.3% |
| Bierpartei | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.6–3.6% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.1–4.1% |
| Wandel | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.8–1.4% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.5–1.7% |
| Liste Madeleine Petrovic | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 31 | 53 | 50–57 | 50–57 | 49–58 | 48–59 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 49 | 47–52 | 45–53 | 45–54 | 44–55 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 39 | 37–42 | 36–43 | 36–43 | 34–44 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 15 | 21 | 20–23 | 19–24 | 18–24 | 18–25 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 26 | 16 | 14–17 | 14–18 | 13–18 | 12–19 |
| Kommunistische Partei Österreichs | 0 | 0 | 0–9 | 0–9 | 0–9 | 0–10 |
| Bierpartei | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–8 |
| Wandel | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Liste Madeleine Petrovic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 1.2% | 99.5% | |
| 49 | 3% | 98% | |
| 50 | 11% | 96% | |
| 51 | 11% | 85% | |
| 52 | 11% | 74% | |
| 53 | 14% | 63% | Median |
| 54 | 16% | 48% | |
| 55 | 9% | 33% | |
| 56 | 14% | 24% | |
| 57 | 7% | 11% | |
| 58 | 3% | 4% | |
| 59 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 45 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 46 | 5% | 95% | |
| 47 | 9% | 90% | |
| 48 | 16% | 81% | |
| 49 | 16% | 65% | Median |
| 50 | 14% | 50% | |
| 51 | 18% | 36% | |
| 52 | 12% | 18% | |
| 53 | 4% | 6% | |
| 54 | 2% | 3% | |
| 55 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 36 | 5% | 98% | |
| 37 | 11% | 93% | |
| 38 | 15% | 83% | |
| 39 | 18% | 68% | Median |
| 40 | 19% | 50% | Last Result |
| 41 | 15% | 30% | |
| 42 | 9% | 15% | |
| 43 | 4% | 6% | |
| 44 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 19 | 5% | 97% | |
| 20 | 21% | 92% | |
| 21 | 24% | 70% | Median |
| 22 | 27% | 47% | |
| 23 | 12% | 20% | |
| 24 | 6% | 8% | |
| 25 | 2% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 13 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 14 | 14% | 96% | |
| 15 | 29% | 82% | |
| 16 | 31% | 53% | Median |
| 17 | 16% | 22% | |
| 18 | 5% | 6% | |
| 19 | 1.4% | 1.5% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 54% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 46% | |
| 2 | 0% | 46% | |
| 3 | 0% | 46% | |
| 4 | 0% | 46% | |
| 5 | 0% | 46% | |
| 6 | 0% | 46% | |
| 7 | 6% | 46% | |
| 8 | 30% | 40% | |
| 9 | 9% | 10% | |
| 10 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Bierpartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bierpartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.0% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 8 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Wandel
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Wandel page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Liste Madeleine Petrovic
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liste Madeleine Petrovic page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei | 102 | 103 | 100% | 98–107 | 97–108 | 97–108 | 95–110 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 71 | 93 | 64% | 88–97 | 88–97 | 87–98 | 86–100 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 111 | 89 | 25% | 85–93 | 84–94 | 83–94 | 81–96 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 112 | 86 | 2% | 83–90 | 82–91 | 81–91 | 79–93 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 81 | 76 | 0% | 73–80 | 72–81 | 71–81 | 69–83 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 86 | 71 | 0% | 67–74 | 67–75 | 66–76 | 64–77 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 97 | 65 | 0% | 62–68 | 61–69 | 60–70 | 59–71 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 66 | 55 | 0% | 52–57 | 51–59 | 50–60 | 49–61 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 49 | 0% | 47–52 | 45–53 | 45–54 | 44–55 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 39 | 0% | 37–42 | 36–43 | 36–43 | 34–44 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 96 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 97 | 4% | 98% | |
| 98 | 4% | 93% | |
| 99 | 10% | 89% | |
| 100 | 7% | 79% | |
| 101 | 6% | 72% | |
| 102 | 11% | 65% | Last Result, Median |
| 103 | 8% | 54% | |
| 104 | 7% | 46% | |
| 105 | 15% | 39% | |
| 106 | 9% | 23% | |
| 107 | 9% | 15% | |
| 108 | 4% | 6% | |
| 109 | 2% | 2% | |
| 110 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 86 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 87 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 88 | 8% | 97% | |
| 89 | 6% | 89% | |
| 90 | 7% | 82% | |
| 91 | 11% | 75% | |
| 92 | 11% | 64% | Median, Majority |
| 93 | 12% | 53% | |
| 94 | 9% | 42% | |
| 95 | 11% | 33% | |
| 96 | 5% | 22% | |
| 97 | 12% | 16% | |
| 98 | 3% | 4% | |
| 99 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 100 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 82 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 83 | 3% | 98.5% | |
| 84 | 3% | 95% | |
| 85 | 7% | 92% | |
| 86 | 7% | 85% | |
| 87 | 13% | 79% | |
| 88 | 13% | 65% | Median |
| 89 | 13% | 52% | |
| 90 | 6% | 40% | |
| 91 | 9% | 33% | |
| 92 | 12% | 25% | Majority |
| 93 | 5% | 12% | |
| 94 | 6% | 8% | |
| 95 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 96 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 79 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 80 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 81 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 82 | 6% | 96% | |
| 83 | 7% | 91% | |
| 84 | 8% | 83% | |
| 85 | 10% | 76% | |
| 86 | 17% | 65% | Median |
| 87 | 13% | 48% | |
| 88 | 13% | 35% | |
| 89 | 7% | 22% | |
| 90 | 6% | 15% | |
| 91 | 6% | 8% | |
| 92 | 1.2% | 2% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 94 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 71 | 3% | 98% | |
| 72 | 4% | 96% | |
| 73 | 8% | 92% | |
| 74 | 8% | 84% | |
| 75 | 9% | 76% | |
| 76 | 18% | 67% | Median |
| 77 | 13% | 50% | |
| 78 | 16% | 36% | |
| 79 | 8% | 20% | |
| 80 | 6% | 12% | |
| 81 | 4% | 6% | Last Result |
| 82 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 83 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 65 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 66 | 2% | 98% | |
| 67 | 7% | 96% | |
| 68 | 9% | 89% | |
| 69 | 9% | 80% | |
| 70 | 14% | 71% | Median |
| 71 | 17% | 57% | |
| 72 | 14% | 40% | |
| 73 | 13% | 26% | |
| 74 | 6% | 13% | |
| 75 | 3% | 7% | |
| 76 | 2% | 4% | |
| 77 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 60 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 61 | 5% | 96% | |
| 62 | 5% | 91% | |
| 63 | 13% | 86% | |
| 64 | 13% | 72% | |
| 65 | 15% | 59% | Median |
| 66 | 14% | 44% | |
| 67 | 12% | 29% | |
| 68 | 9% | 17% | |
| 69 | 5% | 8% | |
| 70 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 71 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 51 | 2% | 96% | |
| 52 | 6% | 94% | |
| 53 | 15% | 88% | |
| 54 | 15% | 73% | |
| 55 | 9% | 57% | Median |
| 56 | 21% | 49% | |
| 57 | 19% | 28% | |
| 58 | 4% | 9% | |
| 59 | 2% | 5% | |
| 60 | 2% | 3% | |
| 61 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 45 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 46 | 5% | 95% | |
| 47 | 9% | 90% | |
| 48 | 16% | 81% | |
| 49 | 16% | 65% | Median |
| 50 | 14% | 50% | |
| 51 | 18% | 36% | |
| 52 | 12% | 18% | |
| 53 | 4% | 6% | |
| 54 | 2% | 3% | |
| 55 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 36 | 5% | 98% | |
| 37 | 11% | 93% | |
| 38 | 15% | 83% | |
| 39 | 18% | 68% | Median |
| 40 | 19% | 50% | Last Result |
| 41 | 15% | 30% | |
| 42 | 9% | 15% | |
| 43 | 4% | 6% | |
| 44 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Market
- Commissioner(s): ÖSTERREICH
- Fieldwork period: 9–17 September 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 2000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.34%