Opinion Poll by OGM for Servus TV, 16–18 September 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 26.0% 24.3–27.8% 23.8–28.4% 23.4–28.8% 22.6–29.7%
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 25.0% 23.4–26.9% 22.9–27.4% 22.5–27.8% 21.7–28.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 21.0% 19.5–22.7% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.7% 17.9–24.5%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.6%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.7–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs 0.7% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Bierpartei 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Liste Madeleine Petrovic 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Wandel 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 52 49–55 47–57 47–57 45–59
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 50 47–54 46–55 45–56 43–58
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 42 39–45 38–46 37–47 36–49
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 20 18–22 17–23 16–23 15–25
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 18 16–20 15–21 14–22 14–23
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs 0 0 0 0–7 0–8 0–9
Bierpartei 0 0 0 0–8 0–8 0–9
Liste Madeleine Petrovic 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wandel 0 0 0 0 0 0

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.4% 99.7%  
46 1.4% 99.3%  
47 3% 98%  
48 4% 95%  
49 6% 91%  
50 12% 85%  
51 10% 74%  
52 20% 64% Median
53 13% 44%  
54 15% 31%  
55 6% 16%  
56 3% 9%  
57 4% 6%  
58 0.9% 2%  
59 1.1% 2%  
60 0.3% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.4% 99.7%  
44 0.9% 99.3%  
45 2% 98%  
46 5% 96%  
47 8% 91%  
48 14% 84%  
49 15% 70%  
50 11% 55% Median
51 10% 45%  
52 12% 34%  
53 6% 22%  
54 10% 16%  
55 3% 6%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.8% 1.3%  
58 0.4% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.8%  
36 1.0% 99.5%  
37 3% 98.5%  
38 4% 96%  
39 7% 92%  
40 9% 84% Last Result
41 21% 75%  
42 17% 54% Median
43 11% 37%  
44 10% 26%  
45 9% 16%  
46 3% 7%  
47 2% 4%  
48 0.7% 2%  
49 1.1% 1.2%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.8% 99.9%  
16 2% 99.1%  
17 7% 97%  
18 12% 90%  
19 16% 78%  
20 26% 62% Median
21 17% 35%  
22 10% 18%  
23 6% 9%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.6% 0.9%  
26 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.4% 99.9%  
14 2% 99.5%  
15 7% 97% Last Result
16 17% 90%  
17 18% 74%  
18 23% 56% Median
19 17% 33%  
20 8% 16%  
21 5% 8%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.4% 0.6%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Kommunistische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 6%  
2 0% 6%  
3 0% 6%  
4 0% 6%  
5 0% 6%  
6 0% 6%  
7 1.1% 6%  
8 4% 5%  
9 0.6% 0.7%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Bierpartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bierpartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 7%  
2 0% 7%  
3 0% 7%  
4 0% 7%  
5 0% 7%  
6 0% 7%  
7 0.1% 7%  
8 6% 7%  
9 0.7% 0.7%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Liste Madeleine Petrovic

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liste Madeleine Petrovic page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Wandel

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Wandel page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 102 102 99.9% 98–106 97–108 96–109 93–110
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 71 94 81% 90–98 89–99 87–100 85–102
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 93 57% 88–96 86–97 85–99 83–101
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 88 12% 84–92 83–93 81–94 79–96
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 80 0% 76–84 74–85 74–86 71–88
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 70 0% 66–74 65–75 64–76 62–78
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 68 0% 64–71 63–73 62–74 60–76
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 62 0% 58–65 57–67 56–68 54–69
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 50 0% 47–54 46–55 45–56 43–58
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 42 0% 39–45 38–46 37–47 36–49

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0.2% 99.9% Majority
93 0.5% 99.7%  
94 0.5% 99.2%  
95 0.7% 98.7%  
96 2% 98%  
97 3% 96%  
98 5% 93%  
99 6% 88%  
100 5% 82%  
101 20% 77%  
102 12% 56% Last Result, Median
103 8% 45%  
104 7% 37%  
105 9% 30%  
106 13% 21%  
107 3% 8%  
108 2% 5%  
109 2% 3%  
110 0.4% 0.7%  
111 0.2% 0.4%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.3% 99.8%  
86 0.6% 99.5%  
87 2% 98.8%  
88 2% 97%  
89 3% 95%  
90 4% 92%  
91 7% 88%  
92 9% 81% Majority
93 15% 72%  
94 10% 57% Median
95 13% 46%  
96 12% 33%  
97 8% 21%  
98 4% 13%  
99 5% 9%  
100 1.5% 4%  
101 1.3% 2%  
102 0.5% 0.9%  
103 0.2% 0.4%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.9%  
83 0.3% 99.7%  
84 0.6% 99.4%  
85 1.4% 98.8%  
86 3% 97%  
87 3% 95%  
88 4% 92%  
89 9% 88%  
90 11% 79%  
91 11% 68%  
92 6% 57% Median, Majority
93 15% 50%  
94 8% 35%  
95 15% 27%  
96 5% 12%  
97 3% 7%  
98 2% 4%  
99 1.0% 3%  
100 0.9% 2%  
101 0.4% 0.6%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.3% 99.9%  
79 0.4% 99.5%  
80 0.5% 99.2%  
81 2% 98.6%  
82 2% 97%  
83 4% 95%  
84 7% 91%  
85 5% 84%  
86 9% 79%  
87 13% 70%  
88 14% 57% Median
89 10% 43%  
90 14% 33%  
91 7% 19%  
92 6% 12% Majority
93 3% 6%  
94 2% 4%  
95 0.7% 2%  
96 0.7% 1.2%  
97 0.4% 0.5%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.4% 99.8%  
72 0.8% 99.4%  
73 0.8% 98.5%  
74 4% 98%  
75 3% 93%  
76 6% 91%  
77 14% 85%  
78 11% 71%  
79 8% 60%  
80 8% 52% Median
81 11% 44% Last Result
82 19% 33%  
83 4% 14%  
84 3% 10%  
85 4% 7%  
86 1.3% 3%  
87 0.6% 1.4%  
88 0.3% 0.8%  
89 0.3% 0.4%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.7% 99.7%  
63 0.7% 99.1%  
64 2% 98%  
65 2% 96%  
66 7% 94%  
67 8% 87%  
68 9% 78%  
69 15% 70%  
70 9% 55% Median
71 10% 45%  
72 11% 35%  
73 6% 24%  
74 10% 18%  
75 5% 8%  
76 1.4% 3%  
77 1.3% 2%  
78 0.3% 0.6%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.5% 99.7%  
61 0.9% 99.2%  
62 2% 98%  
63 3% 96%  
64 4% 93%  
65 7% 89%  
66 11% 82%  
67 15% 70%  
68 12% 55% Median
69 10% 43%  
70 16% 33%  
71 8% 17%  
72 4% 10%  
73 2% 6%  
74 1.3% 3%  
75 0.9% 2%  
76 0.8% 1.1%  
77 0.2% 0.3%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.4% 99.7%  
55 0.8% 99.3%  
56 2% 98.5%  
57 4% 97%  
58 4% 93%  
59 8% 88%  
60 11% 80%  
61 17% 70%  
62 10% 53% Median
63 14% 43%  
64 13% 29%  
65 7% 16%  
66 3% 9% Last Result
67 3% 6%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.7% 1.2%  
70 0.3% 0.5%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.4% 99.7%  
44 0.9% 99.3%  
45 2% 98%  
46 5% 96%  
47 8% 91%  
48 14% 84%  
49 15% 70%  
50 11% 55% Median
51 10% 45%  
52 12% 34%  
53 6% 22%  
54 10% 16%  
55 3% 6%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.8% 1.3%  
58 0.4% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.8%  
36 1.0% 99.5%  
37 3% 98.5%  
38 4% 96%  
39 7% 92%  
40 9% 84% Last Result
41 21% 75%  
42 17% 54% Median
43 11% 37%  
44 10% 26%  
45 9% 16%  
46 3% 7%  
47 2% 4%  
48 0.7% 2%  
49 1.1% 1.2%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations