Opinion Poll by IFDD for ATV, Kronen Zeitung and PULS 24, 19–22 September 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 27.0% 25.3–28.9% 24.8–29.4% 24.3–29.8% 23.5–30.7%
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 25.0% 23.3–26.8% 22.8–27.3% 22.4–27.8% 21.6–28.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.6% 17.8–24.5%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs 0.7% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Bierpartei 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 54 50–58 49–59 48–60 46–61
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 50 46–53 45–54 44–55 42–57
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 42 38–45 37–46 36–47 35–49
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 18 15–20 15–21 14–21 13–23
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 18 15–20 15–21 14–21 13–23
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs 0 0 0 0–8 0–9 0–9
Bierpartei 0 0 0–8 0–8 0–9 0–9

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.6% 99.7%  
47 1.1% 99.2%  
48 2% 98%  
49 4% 96%  
50 6% 92%  
51 9% 85%  
52 11% 76%  
53 13% 65%  
54 13% 52% Median
55 12% 40%  
56 11% 28%  
57 7% 17%  
58 5% 10%  
59 3% 5%  
60 1.4% 3%  
61 0.7% 1.2%  
62 0.3% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.4% 99.8%  
43 1.0% 99.4%  
44 2% 98%  
45 4% 96%  
46 6% 93%  
47 10% 86%  
48 11% 77%  
49 13% 65%  
50 14% 52% Median
51 11% 38%  
52 10% 27%  
53 7% 17%  
54 5% 10%  
55 3% 5%  
56 1.4% 2%  
57 0.6% 0.9%  
58 0.2% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.7% 99.7%  
36 2% 99.0%  
37 3% 97%  
38 6% 94%  
39 9% 88%  
40 13% 78% Last Result
41 14% 66%  
42 14% 52% Median
43 13% 38%  
44 10% 25%  
45 7% 15%  
46 4% 8%  
47 2% 4%  
48 1.0% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.7%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.7% 99.9%  
14 3% 99.2%  
15 8% 96%  
16 15% 89%  
17 20% 74%  
18 22% 54% Median
19 16% 32%  
20 9% 16%  
21 4% 7%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.5% 0.7%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.7% 99.9%  
14 3% 99.2%  
15 8% 96% Last Result
16 15% 88%  
17 20% 73%  
18 21% 53% Median
19 16% 32%  
20 9% 16%  
21 4% 7%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.5% 0.7%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Kommunistische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 10%  
2 0% 10%  
3 0% 10%  
4 0% 10%  
5 0% 10%  
6 0% 10%  
7 0.1% 10%  
8 5% 9%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Bierpartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bierpartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 17%  
2 0% 17%  
3 0% 17%  
4 0% 17%  
5 0% 17%  
6 0% 17%  
7 3% 17%  
8 12% 14%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 102 103 99.9% 98–108 97–109 96–110 93–113
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 71 96 85% 90–100 89–101 88–102 85–104
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 91 49% 87–96 85–97 84–98 82–100
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 85 3% 80–90 79–91 78–92 76–94
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 77 0% 73–81 71–82 70–84 68–86
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 67 0% 63–72 62–73 61–74 59–76
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 67 0% 63–72 62–73 61–74 59–76
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 59 0% 55–63 54–64 53–65 51–68
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 50 0% 46–53 45–54 44–55 42–57
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 42 0% 38–45 37–46 36–47 35–49

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0.2% 99.9% Majority
93 0.4% 99.7%  
94 0.6% 99.3%  
95 0.9% 98.7%  
96 2% 98%  
97 3% 96%  
98 5% 93%  
99 5% 88%  
100 5% 83%  
101 6% 79%  
102 10% 73% Last Result
103 15% 63%  
104 14% 48% Median
105 7% 34%  
106 4% 27%  
107 6% 23%  
108 8% 17%  
109 6% 9%  
110 2% 3%  
111 0.4% 1.3%  
112 0.4% 0.9%  
113 0.3% 0.5%  
114 0.2% 0.2%  
115 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.3% 99.8%  
86 0.6% 99.5%  
87 0.9% 98.9%  
88 2% 98%  
89 3% 96%  
90 4% 94%  
91 5% 90%  
92 7% 85% Majority
93 8% 78%  
94 9% 70%  
95 10% 60%  
96 12% 50% Median
97 10% 39%  
98 9% 29%  
99 7% 20%  
100 6% 13%  
101 3% 7%  
102 2% 4%  
103 1.0% 2%  
104 0.6% 1.0%  
105 0.3% 0.4%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.2% 99.8%  
82 0.5% 99.6%  
83 0.9% 99.1%  
84 2% 98%  
85 2% 97%  
86 4% 94%  
87 5% 90%  
88 7% 85%  
89 8% 78%  
90 10% 70%  
91 11% 60%  
92 10% 49% Median, Majority
93 11% 39%  
94 9% 28%  
95 7% 19%  
96 5% 13%  
97 4% 7%  
98 2% 4%  
99 0.9% 2%  
100 0.6% 0.9%  
101 0.2% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.8%  
76 0.5% 99.6%  
77 1.0% 99.1%  
78 2% 98%  
79 3% 96%  
80 4% 93%  
81 6% 89%  
82 8% 84%  
83 10% 76%  
84 10% 67%  
85 11% 57%  
86 10% 46% Median
87 11% 35%  
88 8% 24%  
89 6% 17%  
90 4% 10%  
91 3% 6%  
92 2% 3% Majority
93 0.9% 2%  
94 0.4% 0.6%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.5% 99.7%  
69 1.0% 99.2%  
70 1.4% 98%  
71 2% 97%  
72 4% 95%  
73 6% 91%  
74 10% 85%  
75 11% 74%  
76 9% 64%  
77 7% 55%  
78 9% 48% Median
79 14% 40%  
80 12% 26%  
81 7% 14% Last Result
82 2% 7%  
83 2% 5%  
84 2% 3%  
85 1.2% 2%  
86 0.4% 0.6%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.5% 99.6%  
60 1.0% 99.1%  
61 2% 98%  
62 3% 96%  
63 5% 93%  
64 8% 88%  
65 9% 81%  
66 12% 72%  
67 13% 60%  
68 11% 48% Median
69 10% 36%  
70 9% 27%  
71 7% 17%  
72 4% 10%  
73 3% 6%  
74 1.4% 3%  
75 0.8% 1.4%  
76 0.4% 0.6%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.5% 99.6%  
60 1.0% 99.1%  
61 2% 98%  
62 3% 96%  
63 5% 93%  
64 7% 88%  
65 9% 80%  
66 11% 71%  
67 12% 60%  
68 12% 48% Median
69 11% 36%  
70 9% 26%  
71 6% 17%  
72 5% 10%  
73 3% 6%  
74 2% 3%  
75 0.7% 1.3%  
76 0.4% 0.6%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.4% 99.8%  
52 1.0% 99.4%  
53 1.2% 98%  
54 3% 97%  
55 6% 94%  
56 7% 89%  
57 8% 82%  
58 14% 73%  
59 10% 59%  
60 11% 49% Median
61 13% 38%  
62 10% 25%  
63 6% 15%  
64 5% 10%  
65 3% 5%  
66 1.1% 2% Last Result
67 0.7% 1.2%  
68 0.4% 0.5%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.4% 99.8%  
43 1.0% 99.4%  
44 2% 98%  
45 4% 96%  
46 6% 93%  
47 10% 86%  
48 11% 77%  
49 13% 65%  
50 14% 52% Median
51 11% 38%  
52 10% 27%  
53 7% 17%  
54 5% 10%  
55 3% 5%  
56 1.4% 2%  
57 0.6% 0.9%  
58 0.2% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.7% 99.7%  
36 2% 99.0%  
37 3% 97%  
38 6% 94%  
39 9% 88%  
40 13% 78% Last Result
41 14% 66%  
42 14% 52% Median
43 13% 38%  
44 10% 25%  
45 7% 15%  
46 4% 8%  
47 2% 4%  
48 1.0% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.7%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations