Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 28–29 June 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 32.1% 37.5% 36.0–39.1% 35.6–39.5% 35.2–39.9% 34.5–40.7%
Conservative Party 43.6% 34.4% 32.9–35.9% 32.5–36.4% 32.1–36.7% 31.4–37.5%
Liberal Democrats 11.5% 13.5% 12.5–14.7% 12.2–15.0% 11.9–15.3% 11.4–15.8%
Scottish National Party 3.9% 5.2% 4.5–6.0% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.4% 3.9–6.8%
Green Party 2.8% 4.9% 4.3–5.6% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.1% 3.6–6.4%
Brexit Party 2.0% 1.4% 1.1–1.8% 1.0–1.9% 0.9–2.1% 0.8–2.3%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.8–1.5% 0.7–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.5–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 202 287 274–301 270–307 265–309 254–316
Conservative Party 365 251 234–268 228–273 223–278 216–289
Liberal Democrats 11 30 23–38 21–40 19–42 18–44
Scottish National Party 48 56 53–58 53–58 52–58 51–58
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Plaid Cymru 4 5 5–6 5–6 5–7 4–7

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0.1% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.8%  
251 0% 99.8%  
252 0.1% 99.8%  
253 0.1% 99.7%  
254 0.1% 99.6%  
255 0.1% 99.5%  
256 0.1% 99.4%  
257 0.1% 99.3%  
258 0.2% 99.2%  
259 0.1% 99.0%  
260 0.1% 99.0%  
261 0.1% 98.9%  
262 0.3% 98.8%  
263 0.2% 98.5%  
264 0.5% 98%  
265 0.4% 98%  
266 0.9% 97%  
267 0.8% 96%  
268 0.4% 96%  
269 0.3% 95%  
270 0.6% 95%  
271 0.6% 94%  
272 0.6% 94%  
273 1.1% 93%  
274 3% 92%  
275 3% 89%  
276 4% 86%  
277 3% 82%  
278 3% 78%  
279 2% 76%  
280 3% 73%  
281 2% 70%  
282 2% 68%  
283 4% 66%  
284 4% 62%  
285 3% 58%  
286 5% 55%  
287 2% 50% Median
288 4% 49%  
289 3% 45%  
290 6% 42%  
291 7% 36%  
292 2% 29%  
293 2% 28%  
294 1.3% 26%  
295 1.2% 25%  
296 2% 24%  
297 4% 22%  
298 4% 17%  
299 3% 14%  
300 0.8% 11%  
301 1.5% 10%  
302 1.3% 9%  
303 0.7% 8%  
304 0.5% 7%  
305 0.7% 7%  
306 0.5% 6%  
307 0.9% 5%  
308 1.4% 4%  
309 0.6% 3%  
310 0.6% 2%  
311 0.3% 2%  
312 0.5% 2%  
313 0.2% 1.1%  
314 0.1% 0.9%  
315 0.3% 0.9%  
316 0.2% 0.6%  
317 0.1% 0.4%  
318 0.2% 0.3%  
319 0.1% 0.1%  
320 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 99.9%  
211 0% 99.9%  
212 0% 99.9%  
213 0.1% 99.8%  
214 0.1% 99.8%  
215 0.1% 99.7%  
216 0.2% 99.6%  
217 0.1% 99.3%  
218 0.1% 99.2%  
219 0.2% 99.1%  
220 0.2% 98.9%  
221 0.4% 98.7%  
222 0.5% 98%  
223 0.5% 98%  
224 0.5% 97%  
225 0.4% 97%  
226 0.7% 97%  
227 0.4% 96%  
228 0.8% 95%  
229 0.5% 95%  
230 1.3% 94%  
231 0.8% 93%  
232 0.9% 92%  
233 1.0% 91%  
234 2% 90%  
235 1.0% 88%  
236 2% 87%  
237 0.8% 85%  
238 1.3% 84%  
239 2% 83%  
240 3% 81%  
241 2% 78%  
242 1.5% 76%  
243 2% 74%  
244 3% 72%  
245 2% 69%  
246 1.4% 67%  
247 5% 66%  
248 2% 61%  
249 3% 59%  
250 3% 56%  
251 3% 52% Median
252 3% 49%  
253 3% 46%  
254 3% 44%  
255 4% 41%  
256 4% 37%  
257 1.4% 34%  
258 3% 32%  
259 2% 29%  
260 3% 27%  
261 1.4% 24%  
262 2% 22%  
263 3% 20%  
264 1.2% 17%  
265 2% 16%  
266 2% 14%  
267 1.1% 12%  
268 1.4% 11%  
269 2% 10%  
270 1.2% 8%  
271 0.6% 7%  
272 0.8% 6%  
273 0.6% 5%  
274 0.8% 5%  
275 0.4% 4%  
276 0.4% 3%  
277 0.5% 3%  
278 0.5% 3%  
279 0.1% 2%  
280 0.3% 2%  
281 0.2% 2%  
282 0.3% 1.5%  
283 0.1% 1.2%  
284 0.1% 1.0%  
285 0.1% 0.9%  
286 0.1% 0.8%  
287 0.1% 0.7%  
288 0.1% 0.6%  
289 0.1% 0.5%  
290 0.1% 0.4%  
291 0.1% 0.4%  
292 0.1% 0.3%  
293 0% 0.3%  
294 0% 0.2%  
295 0% 0.2%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100% Last Result
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.2% 100%  
17 0.1% 99.8%  
18 0.6% 99.7%  
19 2% 99.1%  
20 2% 97%  
21 1.3% 95%  
22 4% 94%  
23 3% 90%  
24 3% 87%  
25 6% 84%  
26 8% 78%  
27 9% 69%  
28 4% 61%  
29 5% 56%  
30 9% 51% Median
31 5% 43%  
32 5% 38%  
33 3% 32%  
34 5% 29%  
35 3% 24%  
36 4% 21%  
37 4% 18%  
38 4% 13%  
39 2% 9%  
40 2% 7%  
41 2% 5%  
42 1.5% 3%  
43 0.7% 1.5%  
44 0.3% 0.7%  
45 0.2% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.3%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 99.9%  
48 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
49 0.1% 99.8%  
50 0.2% 99.7%  
51 0.2% 99.5%  
52 2% 99.3%  
53 11% 97%  
54 4% 86%  
55 12% 82%  
56 36% 70% Median
57 21% 34%  
58 13% 13%  
59 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 1.0% 99.9% Last Result
5 76% 98.9% Median
6 18% 23%  
7 4% 5%  
8 0% 0.3%  
9 0.1% 0.3%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru 266 379 100% 362–396 358–402 353–407 342–414
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 265 378 100% 361–395 357–401 352–406 341–413
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 261 373 99.9% 356–390 352–396 347–401 336–408
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 254 348 98% 335–362 331–367 327–371 316–377
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 250 342 95% 330–356 325–362 321–365 310–372
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 217 322 40% 305–340 301–345 296–351 285–358
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 213 317 26% 300–335 295–340 291–346 280–353
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 417 312 17% 294–330 289–334 283–339 276–350
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 413 307 9% 289–325 284–329 278–334 271–345
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 206 292 0% 280–306 275–312 271–315 260–321
Labour Party 202 287 0% 274–301 270–307 265–309 254–316
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 376 281 0% 267–294 262–299 258–303 252–314
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 369 256 0% 239–273 233–278 228–283 221–294
Conservative Party 365 251 0% 234–268 228–273 223–278 216–289

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
266 0% 100% Last Result
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.8%  
338 0% 99.8%  
339 0.1% 99.7%  
340 0.1% 99.7%  
341 0.1% 99.6%  
342 0.1% 99.6%  
343 0.1% 99.5%  
344 0.1% 99.4%  
345 0.1% 99.3%  
346 0.1% 99.2%  
347 0.1% 99.1%  
348 0.1% 99.0%  
349 0.3% 98.8%  
350 0.2% 98.5%  
351 0.3% 98%  
352 0.1% 98%  
353 0.5% 98%  
354 0.5% 97%  
355 0.4% 97%  
356 0.4% 97%  
357 0.8% 96%  
358 0.6% 95%  
359 0.9% 95%  
360 0.7% 94%  
361 1.3% 93%  
362 2% 92%  
363 1.4% 90%  
364 2% 88%  
365 2% 87%  
366 2% 85%  
367 3% 83%  
368 2% 80%  
369 1.3% 78%  
370 4% 77%  
371 1.5% 73%  
372 3% 71%  
373 1.4% 68%  
374 4% 66%  
375 4% 63%  
376 3% 59%  
377 3% 56%  
378 3% 54%  
379 3% 51% Median
380 3% 48%  
381 3% 44%  
382 2% 41%  
383 5% 39%  
384 1.4% 34%  
385 2% 33%  
386 3% 31%  
387 2% 28%  
388 1.5% 26%  
389 2% 24%  
390 3% 22%  
391 2% 19%  
392 1.3% 17%  
393 0.8% 16%  
394 2% 15%  
395 1.0% 13%  
396 2% 12%  
397 1.0% 10%  
398 0.9% 9%  
399 0.8% 8%  
400 1.3% 7%  
401 0.5% 6%  
402 0.8% 5%  
403 0.4% 5%  
404 0.7% 4%  
405 0.4% 3%  
406 0.5% 3%  
407 0.5% 3%  
408 0.5% 2%  
409 0.4% 2%  
410 0.2% 1.3%  
411 0.2% 1.1%  
412 0.1% 0.9%  
413 0.1% 0.8%  
414 0.2% 0.7%  
415 0.1% 0.4%  
416 0.1% 0.3%  
417 0.1% 0.2%  
418 0% 0.2%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
265 0% 100% Last Result
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.8%  
337 0% 99.8%  
338 0.1% 99.7%  
339 0.1% 99.7%  
340 0.1% 99.6%  
341 0.1% 99.6%  
342 0.1% 99.5%  
343 0.1% 99.4%  
344 0.1% 99.3%  
345 0.1% 99.2%  
346 0.1% 99.1%  
347 0.1% 99.0%  
348 0.3% 98.8%  
349 0.2% 98.5%  
350 0.3% 98%  
351 0.1% 98%  
352 0.5% 98%  
353 0.5% 97%  
354 0.4% 97%  
355 0.4% 97%  
356 0.8% 96%  
357 0.6% 95%  
358 0.9% 95%  
359 0.7% 94%  
360 1.3% 93%  
361 2% 92%  
362 1.4% 90%  
363 2% 88%  
364 2% 87%  
365 2% 85%  
366 3% 83%  
367 2% 80%  
368 1.3% 78%  
369 4% 77%  
370 1.5% 73%  
371 3% 71%  
372 1.4% 68%  
373 4% 66%  
374 4% 63%  
375 3% 59%  
376 3% 56%  
377 3% 54%  
378 3% 51% Median
379 3% 48%  
380 3% 44%  
381 2% 41%  
382 5% 39%  
383 1.4% 34%  
384 2% 33%  
385 3% 31%  
386 2% 28%  
387 1.5% 26%  
388 2% 24%  
389 3% 22%  
390 2% 19%  
391 1.3% 17%  
392 0.8% 16%  
393 2% 15%  
394 1.0% 13%  
395 2% 12%  
396 1.0% 10%  
397 0.9% 9%  
398 0.8% 8%  
399 1.3% 7%  
400 0.5% 6%  
401 0.8% 5%  
402 0.4% 5%  
403 0.7% 4%  
404 0.4% 3%  
405 0.5% 3%  
406 0.5% 3%  
407 0.5% 2%  
408 0.4% 2%  
409 0.2% 1.3%  
410 0.2% 1.1%  
411 0.1% 0.9%  
412 0.1% 0.8%  
413 0.2% 0.7%  
414 0.1% 0.4%  
415 0.1% 0.3%  
416 0.1% 0.2%  
417 0% 0.2%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100% Last Result
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0% 99.9% Majority
327 0% 99.9%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0.1% 99.9%  
331 0% 99.8%  
332 0% 99.8%  
333 0.1% 99.7%  
334 0.1% 99.7%  
335 0.1% 99.6%  
336 0% 99.5%  
337 0.1% 99.5%  
338 0.1% 99.3%  
339 0.1% 99.2%  
340 0.1% 99.2%  
341 0.2% 99.1%  
342 0.2% 98.9%  
343 0.3% 98.8%  
344 0.2% 98%  
345 0.2% 98%  
346 0.2% 98%  
347 0.7% 98%  
348 0.3% 97%  
349 0.4% 97%  
350 0.5% 96%  
351 0.6% 96%  
352 0.7% 95%  
353 0.9% 94%  
354 0.9% 94%  
355 1.1% 93%  
356 2% 92%  
357 2% 89%  
358 2% 88%  
359 2% 86%  
360 2% 84%  
361 3% 82%  
362 1.3% 79%  
363 1.3% 77%  
364 4% 76%  
365 2% 72%  
366 3% 70%  
367 2% 67%  
368 3% 65%  
369 4% 62%  
370 4% 59%  
371 2% 55%  
372 3% 53%  
373 3% 50% Median
374 3% 47%  
375 3% 44%  
376 2% 41%  
377 5% 39%  
378 2% 34%  
379 2% 32%  
380 3% 30%  
381 2% 27%  
382 2% 25%  
383 2% 24%  
384 3% 22%  
385 3% 19%  
386 1.3% 16%  
387 0.6% 15%  
388 2% 15%  
389 1.0% 13%  
390 2% 12%  
391 1.1% 10%  
392 0.8% 9%  
393 0.8% 8%  
394 1.2% 7%  
395 0.4% 6%  
396 0.8% 5%  
397 0.3% 4%  
398 0.7% 4%  
399 0.5% 3%  
400 0.3% 3%  
401 0.5% 3%  
402 0.5% 2%  
403 0.3% 2%  
404 0.3% 1.3%  
405 0.2% 1.1%  
406 0.1% 0.9%  
407 0.1% 0.8%  
408 0.2% 0.7%  
409 0.1% 0.4%  
410 0.1% 0.3%  
411 0.1% 0.2%  
412 0% 0.2%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
254 0% 100% Last Result
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0.1% 99.8%  
312 0% 99.8%  
313 0% 99.7%  
314 0.1% 99.7%  
315 0.1% 99.6%  
316 0.1% 99.5%  
317 0.1% 99.4%  
318 0.2% 99.3%  
319 0.1% 99.2%  
320 0.1% 99.0%  
321 0.1% 99.0%  
322 0.1% 98.8%  
323 0.2% 98.7%  
324 0.3% 98%  
325 0.5% 98%  
326 0.2% 98% Majority
327 0.7% 98%  
328 0.9% 97%  
329 0.2% 96%  
330 0.6% 96%  
331 0.7% 95%  
332 0.5% 94%  
333 1.1% 94%  
334 2% 93%  
335 3% 91%  
336 2% 88%  
337 4% 86%  
338 3% 82%  
339 4% 80%  
340 3% 76%  
341 3% 73%  
342 2% 70%  
343 3% 67%  
344 2% 65%  
345 4% 62%  
346 2% 58%  
347 5% 56%  
348 2% 51% Median
349 5% 48%  
350 1.2% 44%  
351 5% 43%  
352 5% 37%  
353 3% 32%  
354 3% 29%  
355 1.4% 26%  
356 1.4% 25%  
357 3% 23%  
358 3% 20%  
359 2% 18%  
360 3% 15%  
361 3% 13%  
362 0.4% 10%  
363 2% 10%  
364 0.7% 8%  
365 0.5% 7%  
366 0.9% 7%  
367 0.9% 6%  
368 0.6% 5%  
369 1.0% 4%  
370 0.7% 3%  
371 0.6% 3%  
372 0.3% 2%  
373 0.5% 2%  
374 0.2% 1.2%  
375 0.1% 1.0%  
376 0.4% 0.9%  
377 0.1% 0.5%  
378 0.1% 0.4%  
379 0.1% 0.3%  
380 0.1% 0.2%  
381 0.1% 0.1%  
382 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100% Last Result
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0.1% 99.8%  
307 0% 99.8%  
308 0% 99.7%  
309 0.1% 99.7%  
310 0.1% 99.6%  
311 0.1% 99.5%  
312 0.1% 99.3%  
313 0.1% 99.2%  
314 0.1% 99.1%  
315 0.1% 99.0%  
316 0.1% 98.9%  
317 0.1% 98.8%  
318 0.3% 98.7%  
319 0.3% 98%  
320 0.5% 98%  
321 0.4% 98%  
322 0.9% 97%  
323 0.5% 96%  
324 0.2% 96%  
325 0.8% 96%  
326 0.6% 95% Majority
327 0.8% 94%  
328 1.0% 93%  
329 2% 92%  
330 3% 90%  
331 2% 87%  
332 4% 85%  
333 3% 82%  
334 4% 78%  
335 3% 75%  
336 2% 72%  
337 3% 69%  
338 3% 67%  
339 2% 64%  
340 4% 62%  
341 3% 57%  
342 5% 55%  
343 2% 50% Median
344 5% 48%  
345 2% 43%  
346 4% 41%  
347 5% 37%  
348 3% 31%  
349 2% 28%  
350 1.5% 26%  
351 2% 25%  
352 3% 23%  
353 3% 20%  
354 2% 17%  
355 2% 15%  
356 3% 12%  
357 0.5% 10%  
358 1.5% 9%  
359 0.8% 8%  
360 0.6% 7%  
361 1.0% 7%  
362 0.8% 6%  
363 0.6% 5%  
364 1.0% 4%  
365 0.7% 3%  
366 0.6% 2%  
367 0.3% 2%  
368 0.5% 2%  
369 0.2% 1.2%  
370 0.1% 1.0%  
371 0.3% 0.9%  
372 0.1% 0.5%  
373 0.1% 0.4%  
374 0.1% 0.3%  
375 0.1% 0.1%  
376 0.1% 0.1%  
377 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
217 0% 100% Last Result
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.8%  
280 0% 99.8%  
281 0.1% 99.8%  
282 0.1% 99.7%  
283 0% 99.7%  
284 0.1% 99.6%  
285 0.1% 99.5%  
286 0% 99.5%  
287 0.1% 99.4%  
288 0.1% 99.3%  
289 0.1% 99.2%  
290 0.1% 99.1%  
291 0.1% 99.0%  
292 0.4% 98.8%  
293 0.2% 98%  
294 0.2% 98%  
295 0.3% 98%  
296 0.3% 98%  
297 0.4% 97%  
298 0.7% 97%  
299 0.5% 96%  
300 0.5% 96%  
301 0.6% 95%  
302 1.0% 95%  
303 0.8% 94%  
304 2% 93%  
305 1.0% 91%  
306 2% 90%  
307 2% 88%  
308 1.2% 86%  
309 3% 85%  
310 2% 82%  
311 3% 81%  
312 2% 78%  
313 3% 76%  
314 0.9% 73%  
315 4% 72%  
316 2% 68%  
317 3% 66%  
318 4% 63%  
319 2% 60%  
320 3% 57%  
321 2% 54%  
322 3% 52% Median
323 3% 48%  
324 3% 45%  
325 2% 42%  
326 5% 40% Majority
327 2% 35%  
328 3% 34%  
329 3% 31%  
330 2% 28%  
331 1.2% 26%  
332 2% 25%  
333 3% 23%  
334 1.5% 20%  
335 2% 19%  
336 2% 17%  
337 1.5% 15%  
338 1.3% 14%  
339 0.7% 12%  
340 3% 12%  
341 0.7% 9%  
342 0.9% 8%  
343 0.9% 7%  
344 0.7% 7%  
345 0.8% 6%  
346 0.6% 5%  
347 0.6% 4%  
348 0.4% 4%  
349 0.4% 3%  
350 0.4% 3%  
351 0.4% 3%  
352 0.4% 2%  
353 0.3% 2%  
354 0.3% 1.5%  
355 0.2% 1.1%  
356 0.1% 0.9%  
357 0.2% 0.8%  
358 0.1% 0.6%  
359 0.1% 0.5%  
360 0.1% 0.4%  
361 0.1% 0.3%  
362 0% 0.2%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
213 0% 100% Last Result
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.8%  
275 0% 99.8%  
276 0.1% 99.8%  
277 0.1% 99.7%  
278 0.1% 99.6%  
279 0.1% 99.6%  
280 0.1% 99.5%  
281 0.1% 99.4%  
282 0.1% 99.3%  
283 0.1% 99.2%  
284 0.1% 99.2%  
285 0.1% 99.0%  
286 0.2% 98.9%  
287 0.4% 98.7%  
288 0.2% 98%  
289 0.2% 98%  
290 0.3% 98%  
291 0.5% 98%  
292 0.5% 97%  
293 0.6% 97%  
294 0.5% 96%  
295 0.6% 96%  
296 0.7% 95%  
297 1.0% 94%  
298 0.7% 93%  
299 2% 93%  
300 1.1% 90%  
301 2% 89%  
302 2% 87%  
303 2% 85%  
304 3% 84%  
305 1.0% 81%  
306 3% 80%  
307 1.5% 77%  
308 3% 76%  
309 1.2% 72%  
310 4% 71%  
311 1.2% 67%  
312 3% 66%  
313 4% 63%  
314 3% 59%  
315 3% 56%  
316 2% 53%  
317 3% 51% Median
318 3% 47%  
319 3% 44%  
320 2% 42%  
321 5% 40%  
322 3% 35%  
323 2% 32%  
324 2% 30%  
325 2% 28%  
326 1.4% 26% Majority
327 2% 24%  
328 3% 23%  
329 1.4% 20%  
330 2% 18%  
331 1.4% 16%  
332 2% 15%  
333 1.1% 13%  
334 0.6% 12%  
335 2% 11%  
336 0.8% 9%  
337 1.0% 8%  
338 0.7% 7%  
339 0.8% 6%  
340 0.8% 6%  
341 0.6% 5%  
342 0.5% 4%  
343 0.4% 4%  
344 0.5% 3%  
345 0.2% 3%  
346 0.5% 3%  
347 0.4% 2%  
348 0.2% 2%  
349 0.3% 1.4%  
350 0.2% 1.1%  
351 0.1% 0.9%  
352 0.2% 0.8%  
353 0.1% 0.6%  
354 0.1% 0.5%  
355 0.1% 0.3%  
356 0.1% 0.3%  
357 0% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0.1% 99.8%  
274 0.1% 99.7%  
275 0.1% 99.7%  
276 0.1% 99.5%  
277 0.2% 99.4%  
278 0.1% 99.2%  
279 0.2% 99.1%  
280 0.3% 98.9%  
281 0.2% 98.6%  
282 0.4% 98%  
283 0.5% 98%  
284 0.2% 97%  
285 0.5% 97%  
286 0.4% 97%  
287 0.5% 96%  
288 0.6% 96%  
289 0.8% 95%  
290 0.8% 94%  
291 0.7% 94%  
292 1.0% 93%  
293 0.8% 92%  
294 2% 91%  
295 0.6% 89%  
296 1.1% 88%  
297 2% 87%  
298 1.4% 85%  
299 2% 84%  
300 1.4% 82%  
301 3% 80%  
302 2% 77%  
303 1.4% 76%  
304 2% 74%  
305 2% 72%  
306 2% 70%  
307 3% 68%  
308 5% 65%  
309 2% 60%  
310 3% 58%  
311 3% 56%  
312 3% 53% Median
313 2% 49%  
314 3% 47%  
315 3% 44%  
316 4% 41%  
317 3% 37%  
318 1.2% 34%  
319 4% 33%  
320 1.4% 29%  
321 3% 28%  
322 2% 25%  
323 3% 23%  
324 1.4% 21%  
325 2% 19%  
326 2% 17% Majority
327 1.3% 15%  
328 2% 14%  
329 1.4% 12%  
330 1.1% 10%  
331 2% 9%  
332 0.6% 7%  
333 1.0% 7%  
334 0.7% 6%  
335 0.5% 5%  
336 0.5% 4%  
337 0.6% 4%  
338 0.4% 3%  
339 0.5% 3%  
340 0.3% 2%  
341 0.2% 2%  
342 0.2% 2%  
343 0.4% 2%  
344 0.2% 1.3%  
345 0.1% 1.1%  
346 0.1% 1.0%  
347 0.1% 0.8%  
348 0.1% 0.8%  
349 0.1% 0.7%  
350 0.1% 0.6%  
351 0.1% 0.5%  
352 0.1% 0.4%  
353 0.1% 0.4%  
354 0.1% 0.3%  
355 0% 0.2%  
356 0% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0.1% 99.8%  
269 0.1% 99.7%  
270 0.1% 99.6%  
271 0.1% 99.5%  
272 0.2% 99.4%  
273 0.1% 99.2%  
274 0.2% 99.0%  
275 0.3% 98.9%  
276 0.3% 98.5%  
277 0.4% 98%  
278 0.4% 98%  
279 0.4% 97%  
280 0.4% 97%  
281 0.4% 97%  
282 0.6% 96%  
283 0.6% 96%  
284 0.8% 95%  
285 0.7% 94%  
286 0.9% 93%  
287 0.9% 93%  
288 0.7% 92%  
289 3% 91%  
290 0.7% 88%  
291 1.3% 88%  
292 1.5% 86%  
293 2% 85%  
294 2% 83%  
295 1.5% 81%  
296 3% 80%  
297 2% 77%  
298 1.2% 75%  
299 2% 74%  
300 3% 72%  
301 3% 69%  
302 2% 66%  
303 5% 65%  
304 2% 60%  
305 3% 58%  
306 3% 55%  
307 3% 52% Median
308 2% 48%  
309 3% 46%  
310 2% 43%  
311 4% 41%  
312 3% 37%  
313 2% 34%  
314 4% 32%  
315 1.1% 28%  
316 3% 27%  
317 2% 24%  
318 2% 22%  
319 2% 20%  
320 2% 18%  
321 2% 16%  
322 1.4% 14%  
323 2% 13%  
324 0.9% 11%  
325 1.3% 10%  
326 2% 9% Majority
327 0.6% 7%  
328 1.1% 6%  
329 0.5% 5%  
330 0.5% 5%  
331 0.5% 4%  
332 0.7% 4%  
333 0.4% 3%  
334 0.3% 3%  
335 0.3% 2%  
336 0.2% 2%  
337 0.2% 2%  
338 0.4% 2%  
339 0.1% 1.2%  
340 0.1% 1.0%  
341 0.1% 0.9%  
342 0.1% 0.8%  
343 0.1% 0.7%  
344 0% 0.6%  
345 0.1% 0.5%  
346 0.1% 0.5%  
347 0% 0.4%  
348 0.1% 0.3%  
349 0.1% 0.3%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
206 0% 100% Last Result
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0.1% 99.9%  
255 0.1% 99.8%  
256 0% 99.8%  
257 0% 99.8%  
258 0.2% 99.8%  
259 0.1% 99.6%  
260 0.1% 99.5%  
261 0% 99.5%  
262 0.2% 99.4%  
263 0.2% 99.2%  
264 0% 99.0%  
265 0.1% 99.0%  
266 0% 98.9%  
267 0.3% 98.9%  
268 0.2% 98.6%  
269 0.5% 98%  
270 0.3% 98%  
271 0.7% 98%  
272 1.1% 97%  
273 0.5% 96%  
274 0.1% 95%  
275 0.6% 95%  
276 0.6% 95%  
277 0.5% 94%  
278 0.6% 94%  
279 3% 93%  
280 3% 90%  
281 3% 87%  
282 4% 84%  
283 3% 80%  
284 3% 76%  
285 3% 74%  
286 2% 71%  
287 1.5% 69%  
288 4% 67%  
289 5% 63%  
290 2% 59%  
291 5% 56%  
292 2% 51% Median
293 3% 49%  
294 2% 46%  
295 7% 44%  
296 7% 37%  
297 2% 30%  
298 2% 28%  
299 1.3% 26%  
300 0.2% 25%  
301 2% 25%  
302 4% 23%  
303 4% 18%  
304 3% 14%  
305 0.6% 11%  
306 2% 11%  
307 1.3% 9%  
308 0.5% 8%  
309 0.6% 7%  
310 0.6% 7%  
311 0.3% 6%  
312 1.2% 6%  
313 1.5% 5%  
314 0.6% 3%  
315 0.6% 3%  
316 0.3% 2%  
317 0.5% 2%  
318 0.2% 1.1%  
319 0% 0.9%  
320 0.3% 0.9%  
321 0.2% 0.6%  
322 0.1% 0.4%  
323 0.2% 0.3%  
324 0.1% 0.1%  
325 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0.1% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.8%  
251 0% 99.8%  
252 0.1% 99.8%  
253 0.1% 99.7%  
254 0.1% 99.6%  
255 0.1% 99.5%  
256 0.1% 99.4%  
257 0.1% 99.3%  
258 0.2% 99.2%  
259 0.1% 99.0%  
260 0.1% 99.0%  
261 0.1% 98.9%  
262 0.3% 98.8%  
263 0.2% 98.5%  
264 0.5% 98%  
265 0.4% 98%  
266 0.9% 97%  
267 0.8% 96%  
268 0.4% 96%  
269 0.3% 95%  
270 0.6% 95%  
271 0.6% 94%  
272 0.6% 94%  
273 1.1% 93%  
274 3% 92%  
275 3% 89%  
276 4% 86%  
277 3% 82%  
278 3% 78%  
279 2% 76%  
280 3% 73%  
281 2% 70%  
282 2% 68%  
283 4% 66%  
284 4% 62%  
285 3% 58%  
286 5% 55%  
287 2% 50% Median
288 4% 49%  
289 3% 45%  
290 6% 42%  
291 7% 36%  
292 2% 29%  
293 2% 28%  
294 1.3% 26%  
295 1.2% 25%  
296 2% 24%  
297 4% 22%  
298 4% 17%  
299 3% 14%  
300 0.8% 11%  
301 1.5% 10%  
302 1.3% 9%  
303 0.7% 8%  
304 0.5% 7%  
305 0.7% 7%  
306 0.5% 6%  
307 0.9% 5%  
308 1.4% 4%  
309 0.6% 3%  
310 0.6% 2%  
311 0.3% 2%  
312 0.5% 2%  
313 0.2% 1.1%  
314 0.1% 0.9%  
315 0.3% 0.9%  
316 0.2% 0.6%  
317 0.1% 0.4%  
318 0.2% 0.3%  
319 0.1% 0.1%  
320 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
248 0.1% 100%  
249 0.1% 99.9%  
250 0.1% 99.8%  
251 0.1% 99.7%  
252 0.1% 99.6%  
253 0.4% 99.5%  
254 0.1% 99.1%  
255 0.2% 99.0%  
256 0.5% 98.8%  
257 0.3% 98%  
258 0.6% 98%  
259 0.7% 97%  
260 1.0% 97%  
261 0.6% 96%  
262 0.9% 95%  
263 0.9% 94%  
264 0.5% 93%  
265 0.7% 93%  
266 2% 92%  
267 0.4% 90%  
268 3% 90%  
269 3% 87%  
270 2% 85%  
271 3% 82%  
272 3% 80%  
273 1.4% 77%  
274 1.4% 75%  
275 3% 74%  
276 3% 71%  
277 5% 68%  
278 5% 63%  
279 1.2% 57%  
280 5% 56%  
281 2% 52% Median
282 5% 49%  
283 2% 44%  
284 4% 42%  
285 2% 38%  
286 3% 36%  
287 2% 33%  
288 3% 30%  
289 3% 28%  
290 3% 24%  
291 2% 22%  
292 4% 19%  
293 2% 15%  
294 2% 12%  
295 2% 10%  
296 1.2% 8%  
297 1.1% 7%  
298 0.3% 6%  
299 0.7% 5%  
300 0.5% 5%  
301 0.3% 4%  
302 0.8% 4%  
303 0.7% 3%  
304 0.2% 2%  
305 0.5% 2%  
306 0.2% 2%  
307 0.2% 1.5%  
308 0.1% 1.3%  
309 0.1% 1.2%  
310 0.1% 1.0%  
311 0.1% 1.0%  
312 0.2% 0.8%  
313 0.1% 0.7%  
314 0.1% 0.6%  
315 0.1% 0.5%  
316 0.1% 0.4%  
317 0% 0.3%  
318 0% 0.3%  
319 0.1% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.2%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0.1% 99.8%  
219 0.1% 99.8%  
220 0.1% 99.7%  
221 0.2% 99.6%  
222 0.1% 99.3%  
223 0.1% 99.2%  
224 0.2% 99.1%  
225 0.3% 98.9%  
226 0.3% 98.7%  
227 0.5% 98%  
228 0.5% 98%  
229 0.3% 97%  
230 0.5% 97%  
231 0.7% 97%  
232 0.3% 96%  
233 0.8% 96%  
234 0.4% 95%  
235 1.3% 94%  
236 0.8% 93%  
237 0.8% 92%  
238 1.1% 91%  
239 2% 90%  
240 1.0% 88%  
241 2% 87%  
242 0.6% 85%  
243 1.3% 85%  
244 3% 84%  
245 3% 81%  
246 2% 78%  
247 2% 76%  
248 2% 75%  
249 3% 73%  
250 2% 70%  
251 2% 68%  
252 5% 66%  
253 2% 61%  
254 3% 59%  
255 3% 56%  
256 3% 53% Median
257 3% 50%  
258 2% 47%  
259 4% 45%  
260 4% 41%  
261 3% 38%  
262 2% 35%  
263 3% 33%  
264 2% 30%  
265 4% 28%  
266 1.3% 24%  
267 1.3% 23%  
268 3% 22%  
269 2% 18%  
270 2% 17%  
271 2% 15%  
272 1.5% 13%  
273 2% 12%  
274 2% 10%  
275 1.1% 8%  
276 0.9% 7%  
277 0.7% 6%  
278 0.7% 6%  
279 0.7% 5%  
280 0.5% 4%  
281 0.4% 4%  
282 0.3% 3%  
283 0.7% 3%  
284 0.2% 2%  
285 0.2% 2%  
286 0.2% 2%  
287 0.3% 2%  
288 0.2% 1.2%  
289 0.2% 1.1%  
290 0.1% 0.9%  
291 0.1% 0.8%  
292 0.1% 0.8%  
293 0.1% 0.7%  
294 0% 0.5%  
295 0.1% 0.5%  
296 0.1% 0.4%  
297 0.1% 0.3%  
298 0% 0.3%  
299 0% 0.2%  
300 0.1% 0.2%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 99.9%  
211 0% 99.9%  
212 0% 99.9%  
213 0.1% 99.8%  
214 0.1% 99.8%  
215 0.1% 99.7%  
216 0.2% 99.6%  
217 0.1% 99.3%  
218 0.1% 99.2%  
219 0.2% 99.1%  
220 0.2% 98.9%  
221 0.4% 98.7%  
222 0.5% 98%  
223 0.5% 98%  
224 0.5% 97%  
225 0.4% 97%  
226 0.7% 97%  
227 0.4% 96%  
228 0.8% 95%  
229 0.5% 95%  
230 1.3% 94%  
231 0.8% 93%  
232 0.9% 92%  
233 1.0% 91%  
234 2% 90%  
235 1.0% 88%  
236 2% 87%  
237 0.8% 85%  
238 1.3% 84%  
239 2% 83%  
240 3% 81%  
241 2% 78%  
242 1.5% 76%  
243 2% 74%  
244 3% 72%  
245 2% 69%  
246 1.4% 67%  
247 5% 66%  
248 2% 61%  
249 3% 59%  
250 3% 56%  
251 3% 52% Median
252 3% 49%  
253 3% 46%  
254 3% 44%  
255 4% 41%  
256 4% 37%  
257 1.4% 34%  
258 3% 32%  
259 2% 29%  
260 3% 27%  
261 1.4% 24%  
262 2% 22%  
263 3% 20%  
264 1.2% 17%  
265 2% 16%  
266 2% 14%  
267 1.1% 12%  
268 1.4% 11%  
269 2% 10%  
270 1.2% 8%  
271 0.6% 7%  
272 0.8% 6%  
273 0.6% 5%  
274 0.8% 5%  
275 0.4% 4%  
276 0.4% 3%  
277 0.5% 3%  
278 0.5% 3%  
279 0.1% 2%  
280 0.3% 2%  
281 0.2% 2%  
282 0.3% 1.5%  
283 0.1% 1.2%  
284 0.1% 1.0%  
285 0.1% 0.9%  
286 0.1% 0.8%  
287 0.1% 0.7%  
288 0.1% 0.6%  
289 0.1% 0.5%  
290 0.1% 0.4%  
291 0.1% 0.4%  
292 0.1% 0.3%  
293 0% 0.3%  
294 0% 0.2%  
295 0% 0.2%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations