Opinion Poll by Kantar, 18–22 August 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Labour Party |
32.1% |
40.6% |
38.7–42.5% |
38.1–43.1% |
37.7–43.5% |
36.8–44.5% |
Conservative Party |
43.6% |
33.4% |
31.6–35.3% |
31.1–35.8% |
30.7–36.3% |
29.8–37.2% |
Liberal Democrats |
11.5% |
14.2% |
12.9–15.7% |
12.6–16.1% |
12.2–16.4% |
11.6–17.1% |
Green Party |
2.8% |
4.8% |
4.1–5.8% |
3.9–6.1% |
3.7–6.3% |
3.4–6.8% |
Scottish National Party |
3.9% |
4.1% |
3.4–5.0% |
3.2–5.2% |
3.0–5.4% |
2.8–5.9% |
Plaid Cymru |
0.5% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.6–1.8% |
0.5–2.1% |
Brexit Party |
2.0% |
0.9% |
0.6–1.4% |
0.6–1.6% |
0.5–1.7% |
0.4–2.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
202 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
203 |
0% |
100% |
|
204 |
0% |
100% |
|
205 |
0% |
100% |
|
206 |
0% |
100% |
|
207 |
0% |
100% |
|
208 |
0% |
100% |
|
209 |
0% |
100% |
|
210 |
0% |
100% |
|
211 |
0% |
100% |
|
212 |
0% |
100% |
|
213 |
0% |
100% |
|
214 |
0% |
100% |
|
215 |
0% |
100% |
|
216 |
0% |
100% |
|
217 |
0% |
100% |
|
218 |
0% |
100% |
|
219 |
0% |
100% |
|
220 |
0% |
100% |
|
221 |
0% |
100% |
|
222 |
0% |
100% |
|
223 |
0% |
100% |
|
224 |
0% |
100% |
|
225 |
0% |
100% |
|
226 |
0% |
100% |
|
227 |
0% |
100% |
|
228 |
0% |
100% |
|
229 |
0% |
100% |
|
230 |
0% |
100% |
|
231 |
0% |
100% |
|
232 |
0% |
100% |
|
233 |
0% |
100% |
|
234 |
0% |
100% |
|
235 |
0% |
100% |
|
236 |
0% |
100% |
|
237 |
0% |
100% |
|
238 |
0% |
100% |
|
239 |
0% |
100% |
|
240 |
0% |
100% |
|
241 |
0% |
100% |
|
242 |
0% |
100% |
|
243 |
0% |
100% |
|
244 |
0% |
100% |
|
245 |
0% |
100% |
|
246 |
0% |
100% |
|
247 |
0% |
100% |
|
248 |
0% |
100% |
|
249 |
0% |
100% |
|
250 |
0% |
100% |
|
251 |
0% |
100% |
|
252 |
0% |
100% |
|
253 |
0% |
100% |
|
254 |
0% |
100% |
|
255 |
0% |
100% |
|
256 |
0% |
100% |
|
257 |
0% |
100% |
|
258 |
0% |
100% |
|
259 |
0% |
100% |
|
260 |
0% |
100% |
|
261 |
0% |
100% |
|
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
100% |
|
264 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
265 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
266 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
267 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
268 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
269 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
270 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
271 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
272 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
273 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
274 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
275 |
0.3% |
99.5% |
|
276 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
277 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
|
278 |
0.3% |
98.8% |
|
279 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
280 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
281 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
282 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
283 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
284 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
285 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
286 |
0.5% |
95% |
|
287 |
0.9% |
95% |
|
288 |
0.8% |
94% |
|
289 |
1.0% |
93% |
|
290 |
2% |
92% |
|
291 |
1.1% |
90% |
|
292 |
2% |
89% |
|
293 |
0.5% |
86% |
|
294 |
1.4% |
86% |
|
295 |
1.2% |
84% |
|
296 |
1.3% |
83% |
|
297 |
2% |
82% |
|
298 |
2% |
80% |
|
299 |
2% |
78% |
|
300 |
2% |
76% |
|
301 |
2% |
73% |
|
302 |
2% |
71% |
|
303 |
2% |
70% |
|
304 |
1.2% |
67% |
|
305 |
2% |
66% |
|
306 |
3% |
64% |
|
307 |
2% |
61% |
|
308 |
2% |
59% |
|
309 |
4% |
57% |
|
310 |
5% |
53% |
Median |
311 |
2% |
48% |
|
312 |
3% |
46% |
|
313 |
2% |
44% |
|
314 |
2% |
41% |
|
315 |
3% |
40% |
|
316 |
4% |
37% |
|
317 |
2% |
33% |
|
318 |
5% |
32% |
|
319 |
3% |
26% |
|
320 |
4% |
23% |
|
321 |
2% |
19% |
|
322 |
3% |
17% |
|
323 |
2% |
15% |
|
324 |
2% |
13% |
|
325 |
1.1% |
11% |
|
326 |
2% |
10% |
Majority |
327 |
0.8% |
8% |
|
328 |
0.8% |
7% |
|
329 |
1.5% |
6% |
|
330 |
1.1% |
5% |
|
331 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
332 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
333 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
334 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
335 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
336 |
0.2% |
1.5% |
|
337 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
338 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
339 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
340 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
341 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
342 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
343 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
344 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
345 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
346 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
347 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
348 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
349 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
350 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
351 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
352 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
353 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
354 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
177 |
0% |
100% |
|
178 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
179 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
180 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
181 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
182 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
183 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
184 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
185 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
186 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
187 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
188 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
189 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
190 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
191 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
192 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
193 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
194 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
195 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
|
196 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
197 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
|
198 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
|
199 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
200 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
201 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
202 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
203 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
204 |
0.6% |
96% |
|
205 |
0.9% |
95% |
|
206 |
0.6% |
94% |
|
207 |
2% |
94% |
|
208 |
1.2% |
92% |
|
209 |
0.8% |
91% |
|
210 |
2% |
90% |
|
211 |
1.5% |
89% |
|
212 |
3% |
87% |
|
213 |
4% |
84% |
|
214 |
3% |
81% |
|
215 |
2% |
78% |
|
216 |
2% |
76% |
|
217 |
1.3% |
74% |
|
218 |
2% |
72% |
|
219 |
3% |
71% |
|
220 |
5% |
68% |
|
221 |
3% |
63% |
|
222 |
2% |
60% |
|
223 |
2% |
58% |
|
224 |
1.1% |
56% |
|
225 |
4% |
55% |
|
226 |
3% |
51% |
Median |
227 |
2% |
49% |
|
228 |
2% |
47% |
|
229 |
3% |
45% |
|
230 |
1.3% |
42% |
|
231 |
1.2% |
40% |
|
232 |
1.5% |
39% |
|
233 |
3% |
38% |
|
234 |
3% |
35% |
|
235 |
0.8% |
32% |
|
236 |
2% |
31% |
|
237 |
2% |
29% |
|
238 |
1.4% |
28% |
|
239 |
0.9% |
26% |
|
240 |
2% |
25% |
|
241 |
1.0% |
23% |
|
242 |
2% |
22% |
|
243 |
2% |
20% |
|
244 |
3% |
18% |
|
245 |
1.0% |
16% |
|
246 |
0.3% |
15% |
|
247 |
1.0% |
14% |
|
248 |
1.1% |
13% |
|
249 |
1.3% |
12% |
|
250 |
2% |
11% |
|
251 |
1.5% |
9% |
|
252 |
0.4% |
8% |
|
253 |
0.3% |
7% |
|
254 |
0.6% |
7% |
|
255 |
1.0% |
6% |
|
256 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
257 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
258 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
259 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
260 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
261 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
262 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
263 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
264 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
265 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
266 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
267 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
|
268 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
269 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
270 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
271 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
272 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
273 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
274 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
275 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
276 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
277 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
278 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
279 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
280 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
281 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
282 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
283 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
284 |
0% |
0% |
|
285 |
0% |
0% |
|
286 |
0% |
0% |
|
287 |
0% |
0% |
|
288 |
0% |
0% |
|
289 |
0% |
0% |
|
290 |
0% |
0% |
|
291 |
0% |
0% |
|
292 |
0% |
0% |
|
293 |
0% |
0% |
|
294 |
0% |
0% |
|
295 |
0% |
0% |
|
296 |
0% |
0% |
|
297 |
0% |
0% |
|
298 |
0% |
0% |
|
299 |
0% |
0% |
|
300 |
0% |
0% |
|
301 |
0% |
0% |
|
302 |
0% |
0% |
|
303 |
0% |
0% |
|
304 |
0% |
0% |
|
305 |
0% |
0% |
|
306 |
0% |
0% |
|
307 |
0% |
0% |
|
308 |
0% |
0% |
|
309 |
0% |
0% |
|
310 |
0% |
0% |
|
311 |
0% |
0% |
|
312 |
0% |
0% |
|
313 |
0% |
0% |
|
314 |
0% |
0% |
|
315 |
0% |
0% |
|
316 |
0% |
0% |
|
317 |
0% |
0% |
|
318 |
0% |
0% |
|
319 |
0% |
0% |
|
320 |
0% |
0% |
|
321 |
0% |
0% |
|
322 |
0% |
0% |
|
323 |
0% |
0% |
|
324 |
0% |
0% |
|
325 |
0% |
0% |
|
326 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
0% |
|
328 |
0% |
0% |
|
329 |
0% |
0% |
|
330 |
0% |
0% |
|
331 |
0% |
0% |
|
332 |
0% |
0% |
|
333 |
0% |
0% |
|
334 |
0% |
0% |
|
335 |
0% |
0% |
|
336 |
0% |
0% |
|
337 |
0% |
0% |
|
338 |
0% |
0% |
|
339 |
0% |
0% |
|
340 |
0% |
0% |
|
341 |
0% |
0% |
|
342 |
0% |
0% |
|
343 |
0% |
0% |
|
344 |
0% |
0% |
|
345 |
0% |
0% |
|
346 |
0% |
0% |
|
347 |
0% |
0% |
|
348 |
0% |
0% |
|
349 |
0% |
0% |
|
350 |
0% |
0% |
|
351 |
0% |
0% |
|
352 |
0% |
0% |
|
353 |
0% |
0% |
|
354 |
0% |
0% |
|
355 |
0% |
0% |
|
356 |
0% |
0% |
|
357 |
0% |
0% |
|
358 |
0% |
0% |
|
359 |
0% |
0% |
|
360 |
0% |
0% |
|
361 |
0% |
0% |
|
362 |
0% |
0% |
|
363 |
0% |
0% |
|
364 |
0% |
0% |
|
365 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Liberal Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
21 |
0.4% |
99.5% |
|
22 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
|
23 |
0.9% |
98.8% |
|
24 |
1.1% |
98% |
|
25 |
1.4% |
97% |
|
26 |
3% |
95% |
|
27 |
2% |
92% |
|
28 |
2% |
90% |
|
29 |
5% |
88% |
|
30 |
5% |
83% |
|
31 |
3% |
78% |
|
32 |
3% |
75% |
|
33 |
3% |
73% |
|
34 |
5% |
69% |
|
35 |
3% |
64% |
|
36 |
4% |
61% |
|
37 |
2% |
57% |
|
38 |
6% |
55% |
Median |
39 |
7% |
48% |
|
40 |
9% |
41% |
|
41 |
8% |
32% |
|
42 |
6% |
24% |
|
43 |
5% |
18% |
|
44 |
3% |
13% |
|
45 |
3% |
10% |
|
46 |
1.2% |
7% |
|
47 |
1.0% |
6% |
|
48 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
49 |
1.1% |
5% |
|
50 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
51 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
52 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
53 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
54 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
55 |
0.6% |
0.8% |
|
56 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
57 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
58 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
59 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
60 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
Green Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
99.9% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Scottish National Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
31 |
0.4% |
99.1% |
|
32 |
0.5% |
98.6% |
|
33 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
34 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
35 |
0.9% |
97% |
|
36 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
37 |
1.1% |
96% |
|
38 |
2% |
95% |
|
39 |
0.8% |
92% |
|
40 |
2% |
91% |
|
41 |
2% |
90% |
|
42 |
0.8% |
88% |
|
43 |
1.2% |
87% |
|
44 |
1.1% |
86% |
|
45 |
4% |
85% |
|
46 |
2% |
81% |
|
47 |
2% |
79% |
|
48 |
4% |
78% |
Last Result |
49 |
5% |
73% |
|
50 |
10% |
68% |
|
51 |
6% |
58% |
|
52 |
19% |
52% |
Median |
53 |
14% |
33% |
|
54 |
5% |
19% |
|
55 |
6% |
15% |
|
56 |
7% |
9% |
|
57 |
2% |
2% |
|
58 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
Plaid Cymru
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
4 |
5% |
99.3% |
Last Result |
5 |
75% |
94% |
Median |
6 |
14% |
19% |
|
7 |
5% |
5% |
|
8 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
10 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
11 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Brexit Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
266 |
404 |
100% |
380–420 |
374–425 |
368–430 |
359–439 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
265 |
403 |
100% |
379–419 |
373–424 |
367–429 |
358–438 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party |
261 |
398 |
100% |
374–414 |
368–419 |
362–424 |
353–433 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
254 |
366 |
99.8% |
347–378 |
342–381 |
337–384 |
329–391 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru |
217 |
352 |
94% |
328–372 |
323–377 |
318–381 |
308–392 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party |
250 |
361 |
99.1% |
341–373 |
337–376 |
331–379 |
323–386 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats |
213 |
347 |
87% |
323–367 |
317–372 |
312–376 |
303–387 |
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru |
206 |
315 |
20% |
296–330 |
291–334 |
287–337 |
280–346 |
Labour Party |
202 |
310 |
10% |
290–325 |
286–329 |
282–332 |
274–341 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
417 |
282 |
0.8% |
262–306 |
257–312 |
253–317 |
242–327 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party |
413 |
277 |
0.3% |
257–301 |
252–307 |
248–312 |
237–322 |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats |
376 |
263 |
0% |
251–282 |
248–288 |
245–293 |
238–301 |
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru |
369 |
231 |
0% |
215–255 |
210–261 |
205–268 |
196–277 |
Conservative Party |
365 |
226 |
0% |
210–250 |
205–256 |
200–263 |
191–272 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
266 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
100% |
|
269 |
0% |
100% |
|
270 |
0% |
100% |
|
271 |
0% |
100% |
|
272 |
0% |
100% |
|
273 |
0% |
100% |
|
274 |
0% |
100% |
|
275 |
0% |
100% |
|
276 |
0% |
100% |
|
277 |
0% |
100% |
|
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
100% |
|
280 |
0% |
100% |
|
281 |
0% |
100% |
|
282 |
0% |
100% |
|
283 |
0% |
100% |
|
284 |
0% |
100% |
|
285 |
0% |
100% |
|
286 |
0% |
100% |
|
287 |
0% |
100% |
|
288 |
0% |
100% |
|
289 |
0% |
100% |
|
290 |
0% |
100% |
|
291 |
0% |
100% |
|
292 |
0% |
100% |
|
293 |
0% |
100% |
|
294 |
0% |
100% |
|
295 |
0% |
100% |
|
296 |
0% |
100% |
|
297 |
0% |
100% |
|
298 |
0% |
100% |
|
299 |
0% |
100% |
|
300 |
0% |
100% |
|
301 |
0% |
100% |
|
302 |
0% |
100% |
|
303 |
0% |
100% |
|
304 |
0% |
100% |
|
305 |
0% |
100% |
|
306 |
0% |
100% |
|
307 |
0% |
100% |
|
308 |
0% |
100% |
|
309 |
0% |
100% |
|
310 |
0% |
100% |
|
311 |
0% |
100% |
|
312 |
0% |
100% |
|
313 |
0% |
100% |
|
314 |
0% |
100% |
|
315 |
0% |
100% |
|
316 |
0% |
100% |
|
317 |
0% |
100% |
|
318 |
0% |
100% |
|
319 |
0% |
100% |
|
320 |
0% |
100% |
|
321 |
0% |
100% |
|
322 |
0% |
100% |
|
323 |
0% |
100% |
|
324 |
0% |
100% |
|
325 |
0% |
100% |
|
326 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
100% |
|
328 |
0% |
100% |
|
329 |
0% |
100% |
|
330 |
0% |
100% |
|
331 |
0% |
100% |
|
332 |
0% |
100% |
|
333 |
0% |
100% |
|
334 |
0% |
100% |
|
335 |
0% |
100% |
|
336 |
0% |
100% |
|
337 |
0% |
100% |
|
338 |
0% |
100% |
|
339 |
0% |
100% |
|
340 |
0% |
100% |
|
341 |
0% |
100% |
|
342 |
0% |
100% |
|
343 |
0% |
100% |
|
344 |
0% |
100% |
|
345 |
0% |
100% |
|
346 |
0% |
100% |
|
347 |
0% |
100% |
|
348 |
0% |
100% |
|
349 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
350 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
351 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
352 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
353 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
354 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
355 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
356 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
357 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
358 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
359 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
360 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
361 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
362 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
|
363 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
364 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
365 |
0.3% |
98.8% |
|
366 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
367 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
368 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
369 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
370 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
371 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
372 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
373 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
374 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
375 |
0.5% |
95% |
|
376 |
1.1% |
94% |
|
377 |
0.5% |
93% |
|
378 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
379 |
1.4% |
92% |
|
380 |
2% |
91% |
|
381 |
1.3% |
89% |
|
382 |
1.1% |
88% |
|
383 |
1.0% |
87% |
|
384 |
0.4% |
86% |
|
385 |
1.0% |
85% |
|
386 |
3% |
84% |
|
387 |
2% |
82% |
|
388 |
2% |
80% |
|
389 |
1.0% |
78% |
|
390 |
2% |
77% |
|
391 |
0.9% |
75% |
|
392 |
1.4% |
74% |
|
393 |
2% |
72% |
|
394 |
2% |
71% |
|
395 |
0.8% |
69% |
|
396 |
3% |
68% |
|
397 |
3% |
65% |
|
398 |
1.5% |
62% |
|
399 |
1.2% |
61% |
|
400 |
1.3% |
60% |
|
401 |
3% |
58% |
|
402 |
2% |
55% |
|
403 |
2% |
53% |
|
404 |
3% |
51% |
|
405 |
4% |
49% |
|
406 |
1.1% |
45% |
Median |
407 |
2% |
44% |
|
408 |
2% |
42% |
|
409 |
3% |
40% |
|
410 |
5% |
37% |
|
411 |
3% |
32% |
|
412 |
2% |
29% |
|
413 |
1.3% |
28% |
|
414 |
2% |
26% |
|
415 |
2% |
24% |
|
416 |
3% |
22% |
|
417 |
4% |
19% |
|
418 |
3% |
16% |
|
419 |
1.5% |
13% |
|
420 |
2% |
11% |
|
421 |
0.8% |
10% |
|
422 |
1.2% |
9% |
|
423 |
2% |
8% |
|
424 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
425 |
0.9% |
6% |
|
426 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
427 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
428 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
429 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
430 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
431 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
432 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
433 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
434 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
435 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
436 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
437 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
438 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
439 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
440 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
441 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
442 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
443 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
444 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
445 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
446 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
447 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
448 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
449 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
450 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
451 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
452 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
453 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
454 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
265 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
266 |
0% |
100% |
|
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
100% |
|
269 |
0% |
100% |
|
270 |
0% |
100% |
|
271 |
0% |
100% |
|
272 |
0% |
100% |
|
273 |
0% |
100% |
|
274 |
0% |
100% |
|
275 |
0% |
100% |
|
276 |
0% |
100% |
|
277 |
0% |
100% |
|
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
100% |
|
280 |
0% |
100% |
|
281 |
0% |
100% |
|
282 |
0% |
100% |
|
283 |
0% |
100% |
|
284 |
0% |
100% |
|
285 |
0% |
100% |
|
286 |
0% |
100% |
|
287 |
0% |
100% |
|
288 |
0% |
100% |
|
289 |
0% |
100% |
|
290 |
0% |
100% |
|
291 |
0% |
100% |
|
292 |
0% |
100% |
|
293 |
0% |
100% |
|
294 |
0% |
100% |
|
295 |
0% |
100% |
|
296 |
0% |
100% |
|
297 |
0% |
100% |
|
298 |
0% |
100% |
|
299 |
0% |
100% |
|
300 |
0% |
100% |
|
301 |
0% |
100% |
|
302 |
0% |
100% |
|
303 |
0% |
100% |
|
304 |
0% |
100% |
|
305 |
0% |
100% |
|
306 |
0% |
100% |
|
307 |
0% |
100% |
|
308 |
0% |
100% |
|
309 |
0% |
100% |
|
310 |
0% |
100% |
|
311 |
0% |
100% |
|
312 |
0% |
100% |
|
313 |
0% |
100% |
|
314 |
0% |
100% |
|
315 |
0% |
100% |
|
316 |
0% |
100% |
|
317 |
0% |
100% |
|
318 |
0% |
100% |
|
319 |
0% |
100% |
|
320 |
0% |
100% |
|
321 |
0% |
100% |
|
322 |
0% |
100% |
|
323 |
0% |
100% |
|
324 |
0% |
100% |
|
325 |
0% |
100% |
|
326 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
100% |
|
328 |
0% |
100% |
|
329 |
0% |
100% |
|
330 |
0% |
100% |
|
331 |
0% |
100% |
|
332 |
0% |
100% |
|
333 |
0% |
100% |
|
334 |
0% |
100% |
|
335 |
0% |
100% |
|
336 |
0% |
100% |
|
337 |
0% |
100% |
|
338 |
0% |
100% |
|
339 |
0% |
100% |
|
340 |
0% |
100% |
|
341 |
0% |
100% |
|
342 |
0% |
100% |
|
343 |
0% |
100% |
|
344 |
0% |
100% |
|
345 |
0% |
100% |
|
346 |
0% |
100% |
|
347 |
0% |
100% |
|
348 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
349 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
350 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
351 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
352 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
353 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
354 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
355 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
356 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
357 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
358 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
359 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
360 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
361 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
|
362 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
363 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
364 |
0.3% |
98.8% |
|
365 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
366 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
367 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
368 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
369 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
370 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
371 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
372 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
373 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
374 |
0.5% |
95% |
|
375 |
1.1% |
94% |
|
376 |
0.5% |
93% |
|
377 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
378 |
1.4% |
92% |
|
379 |
2% |
91% |
|
380 |
1.3% |
89% |
|
381 |
1.1% |
88% |
|
382 |
1.0% |
87% |
|
383 |
0.4% |
86% |
|
384 |
1.0% |
85% |
|
385 |
3% |
84% |
|
386 |
2% |
82% |
|
387 |
2% |
80% |
|
388 |
1.0% |
78% |
|
389 |
2% |
77% |
|
390 |
0.9% |
75% |
|
391 |
1.4% |
74% |
|
392 |
2% |
72% |
|
393 |
2% |
71% |
|
394 |
0.8% |
69% |
|
395 |
3% |
68% |
|
396 |
3% |
65% |
|
397 |
1.5% |
62% |
|
398 |
1.2% |
61% |
|
399 |
1.3% |
60% |
|
400 |
3% |
58% |
|
401 |
2% |
55% |
|
402 |
2% |
53% |
|
403 |
3% |
51% |
|
404 |
4% |
49% |
|
405 |
1.1% |
45% |
Median |
406 |
2% |
44% |
|
407 |
2% |
42% |
|
408 |
3% |
40% |
|
409 |
5% |
37% |
|
410 |
3% |
32% |
|
411 |
2% |
29% |
|
412 |
1.3% |
28% |
|
413 |
2% |
26% |
|
414 |
2% |
24% |
|
415 |
3% |
22% |
|
416 |
4% |
19% |
|
417 |
3% |
16% |
|
418 |
1.5% |
13% |
|
419 |
2% |
11% |
|
420 |
0.8% |
10% |
|
421 |
1.2% |
9% |
|
422 |
2% |
8% |
|
423 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
424 |
0.9% |
6% |
|
425 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
426 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
427 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
428 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
429 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
430 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
431 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
432 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
433 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
434 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
435 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
436 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
437 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
438 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
439 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
440 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
441 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
442 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
443 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
444 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
445 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
446 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
447 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
448 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
449 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
450 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
451 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
452 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
453 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
261 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
100% |
|
264 |
0% |
100% |
|
265 |
0% |
100% |
|
266 |
0% |
100% |
|
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
100% |
|
269 |
0% |
100% |
|
270 |
0% |
100% |
|
271 |
0% |
100% |
|
272 |
0% |
100% |
|
273 |
0% |
100% |
|
274 |
0% |
100% |
|
275 |
0% |
100% |
|
276 |
0% |
100% |
|
277 |
0% |
100% |
|
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
100% |
|
280 |
0% |
100% |
|
281 |
0% |
100% |
|
282 |
0% |
100% |
|
283 |
0% |
100% |
|
284 |
0% |
100% |
|
285 |
0% |
100% |
|
286 |
0% |
100% |
|
287 |
0% |
100% |
|
288 |
0% |
100% |
|
289 |
0% |
100% |
|
290 |
0% |
100% |
|
291 |
0% |
100% |
|
292 |
0% |
100% |
|
293 |
0% |
100% |
|
294 |
0% |
100% |
|
295 |
0% |
100% |
|
296 |
0% |
100% |
|
297 |
0% |
100% |
|
298 |
0% |
100% |
|
299 |
0% |
100% |
|
300 |
0% |
100% |
|
301 |
0% |
100% |
|
302 |
0% |
100% |
|
303 |
0% |
100% |
|
304 |
0% |
100% |
|
305 |
0% |
100% |
|
306 |
0% |
100% |
|
307 |
0% |
100% |
|
308 |
0% |
100% |
|
309 |
0% |
100% |
|
310 |
0% |
100% |
|
311 |
0% |
100% |
|
312 |
0% |
100% |
|
313 |
0% |
100% |
|
314 |
0% |
100% |
|
315 |
0% |
100% |
|
316 |
0% |
100% |
|
317 |
0% |
100% |
|
318 |
0% |
100% |
|
319 |
0% |
100% |
|
320 |
0% |
100% |
|
321 |
0% |
100% |
|
322 |
0% |
100% |
|
323 |
0% |
100% |
|
324 |
0% |
100% |
|
325 |
0% |
100% |
|
326 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
100% |
|
328 |
0% |
100% |
|
329 |
0% |
100% |
|
330 |
0% |
100% |
|
331 |
0% |
100% |
|
332 |
0% |
100% |
|
333 |
0% |
100% |
|
334 |
0% |
100% |
|
335 |
0% |
100% |
|
336 |
0% |
100% |
|
337 |
0% |
100% |
|
338 |
0% |
100% |
|
339 |
0% |
100% |
|
340 |
0% |
100% |
|
341 |
0% |
100% |
|
342 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
343 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
344 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
345 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
346 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
347 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
348 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
349 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
350 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
351 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
352 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
353 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
354 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
355 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
356 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
|
357 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
358 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
|
359 |
0.3% |
98.7% |
|
360 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
361 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
362 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
363 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
364 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
365 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
366 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
367 |
0.6% |
96% |
|
368 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
369 |
0.7% |
95% |
|
370 |
0.9% |
94% |
|
371 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
372 |
0.7% |
93% |
|
373 |
1.1% |
92% |
|
374 |
2% |
91% |
|
375 |
2% |
89% |
|
376 |
1.0% |
87% |
|
377 |
0.8% |
86% |
|
378 |
0.6% |
86% |
|
379 |
1.0% |
85% |
|
380 |
2% |
84% |
|
381 |
2% |
82% |
|
382 |
2% |
79% |
|
383 |
1.0% |
77% |
|
384 |
2% |
76% |
|
385 |
0.7% |
74% |
|
386 |
2% |
74% |
|
387 |
2% |
72% |
|
388 |
2% |
70% |
|
389 |
1.1% |
69% |
|
390 |
4% |
68% |
|
391 |
3% |
64% |
|
392 |
1.1% |
61% |
|
393 |
0.8% |
60% |
|
394 |
1.2% |
59% |
|
395 |
3% |
58% |
|
396 |
3% |
55% |
|
397 |
2% |
53% |
|
398 |
3% |
51% |
|
399 |
3% |
48% |
|
400 |
2% |
44% |
Median |
401 |
1.0% |
43% |
|
402 |
2% |
42% |
|
403 |
2% |
40% |
|
404 |
5% |
37% |
|
405 |
4% |
32% |
|
406 |
2% |
28% |
|
407 |
1.1% |
27% |
|
408 |
2% |
26% |
|
409 |
2% |
24% |
|
410 |
3% |
22% |
|
411 |
4% |
19% |
|
412 |
2% |
15% |
|
413 |
2% |
13% |
|
414 |
1.2% |
11% |
|
415 |
0.9% |
10% |
|
416 |
0.8% |
9% |
|
417 |
2% |
8% |
|
418 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
419 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
420 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
421 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
422 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
423 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
424 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
425 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
426 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
427 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
|
428 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
429 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
430 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
431 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
432 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
433 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
434 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
435 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
436 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
437 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
438 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
439 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
440 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
441 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
442 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
443 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
444 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
445 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
446 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
447 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
448 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
254 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
255 |
0% |
100% |
|
256 |
0% |
100% |
|
257 |
0% |
100% |
|
258 |
0% |
100% |
|
259 |
0% |
100% |
|
260 |
0% |
100% |
|
261 |
0% |
100% |
|
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
100% |
|
264 |
0% |
100% |
|
265 |
0% |
100% |
|
266 |
0% |
100% |
|
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
100% |
|
269 |
0% |
100% |
|
270 |
0% |
100% |
|
271 |
0% |
100% |
|
272 |
0% |
100% |
|
273 |
0% |
100% |
|
274 |
0% |
100% |
|
275 |
0% |
100% |
|
276 |
0% |
100% |
|
277 |
0% |
100% |
|
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
100% |
|
280 |
0% |
100% |
|
281 |
0% |
100% |
|
282 |
0% |
100% |
|
283 |
0% |
100% |
|
284 |
0% |
100% |
|
285 |
0% |
100% |
|
286 |
0% |
100% |
|
287 |
0% |
100% |
|
288 |
0% |
100% |
|
289 |
0% |
100% |
|
290 |
0% |
100% |
|
291 |
0% |
100% |
|
292 |
0% |
100% |
|
293 |
0% |
100% |
|
294 |
0% |
100% |
|
295 |
0% |
100% |
|
296 |
0% |
100% |
|
297 |
0% |
100% |
|
298 |
0% |
100% |
|
299 |
0% |
100% |
|
300 |
0% |
100% |
|
301 |
0% |
100% |
|
302 |
0% |
100% |
|
303 |
0% |
100% |
|
304 |
0% |
100% |
|
305 |
0% |
100% |
|
306 |
0% |
100% |
|
307 |
0% |
100% |
|
308 |
0% |
100% |
|
309 |
0% |
100% |
|
310 |
0% |
100% |
|
311 |
0% |
100% |
|
312 |
0% |
100% |
|
313 |
0% |
100% |
|
314 |
0% |
100% |
|
315 |
0% |
100% |
|
316 |
0% |
100% |
|
317 |
0% |
100% |
|
318 |
0% |
100% |
|
319 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
320 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
321 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
322 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
323 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
324 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
325 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
326 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
Majority |
327 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
328 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
329 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
330 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
331 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
332 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
333 |
0.2% |
98.7% |
|
334 |
0.3% |
98.5% |
|
335 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
336 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
337 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
338 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
339 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
340 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
341 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
342 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
343 |
1.0% |
95% |
|
344 |
0.9% |
94% |
|
345 |
1.2% |
93% |
|
346 |
1.2% |
92% |
|
347 |
1.2% |
90% |
|
348 |
3% |
89% |
|
349 |
2% |
86% |
|
350 |
1.1% |
84% |
|
351 |
1.2% |
83% |
|
352 |
2% |
82% |
|
353 |
3% |
80% |
|
354 |
1.4% |
77% |
|
355 |
3% |
76% |
|
356 |
3% |
73% |
|
357 |
2% |
70% |
|
358 |
2% |
68% |
|
359 |
2% |
67% |
|
360 |
2% |
65% |
|
361 |
2% |
63% |
|
362 |
1.0% |
61% |
|
363 |
2% |
60% |
|
364 |
2% |
58% |
|
365 |
3% |
56% |
|
366 |
5% |
54% |
|
367 |
3% |
49% |
Median |
368 |
3% |
46% |
|
369 |
3% |
43% |
|
370 |
4% |
41% |
|
371 |
2% |
36% |
|
372 |
3% |
34% |
|
373 |
5% |
31% |
|
374 |
4% |
26% |
|
375 |
4% |
22% |
|
376 |
4% |
19% |
|
377 |
3% |
15% |
|
378 |
2% |
11% |
|
379 |
2% |
9% |
|
380 |
2% |
8% |
|
381 |
2% |
6% |
|
382 |
2% |
4% |
|
383 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
384 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
385 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
386 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
387 |
0.3% |
1.3% |
|
388 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
389 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
390 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
391 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
392 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
393 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
394 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
395 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
396 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
397 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
398 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
399 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
400 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
401 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
402 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
403 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
404 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
405 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
217 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
218 |
0% |
100% |
|
219 |
0% |
100% |
|
220 |
0% |
100% |
|
221 |
0% |
100% |
|
222 |
0% |
100% |
|
223 |
0% |
100% |
|
224 |
0% |
100% |
|
225 |
0% |
100% |
|
226 |
0% |
100% |
|
227 |
0% |
100% |
|
228 |
0% |
100% |
|
229 |
0% |
100% |
|
230 |
0% |
100% |
|
231 |
0% |
100% |
|
232 |
0% |
100% |
|
233 |
0% |
100% |
|
234 |
0% |
100% |
|
235 |
0% |
100% |
|
236 |
0% |
100% |
|
237 |
0% |
100% |
|
238 |
0% |
100% |
|
239 |
0% |
100% |
|
240 |
0% |
100% |
|
241 |
0% |
100% |
|
242 |
0% |
100% |
|
243 |
0% |
100% |
|
244 |
0% |
100% |
|
245 |
0% |
100% |
|
246 |
0% |
100% |
|
247 |
0% |
100% |
|
248 |
0% |
100% |
|
249 |
0% |
100% |
|
250 |
0% |
100% |
|
251 |
0% |
100% |
|
252 |
0% |
100% |
|
253 |
0% |
100% |
|
254 |
0% |
100% |
|
255 |
0% |
100% |
|
256 |
0% |
100% |
|
257 |
0% |
100% |
|
258 |
0% |
100% |
|
259 |
0% |
100% |
|
260 |
0% |
100% |
|
261 |
0% |
100% |
|
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
100% |
|
264 |
0% |
100% |
|
265 |
0% |
100% |
|
266 |
0% |
100% |
|
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
100% |
|
269 |
0% |
100% |
|
270 |
0% |
100% |
|
271 |
0% |
100% |
|
272 |
0% |
100% |
|
273 |
0% |
100% |
|
274 |
0% |
100% |
|
275 |
0% |
100% |
|
276 |
0% |
100% |
|
277 |
0% |
100% |
|
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
100% |
|
280 |
0% |
100% |
|
281 |
0% |
100% |
|
282 |
0% |
100% |
|
283 |
0% |
100% |
|
284 |
0% |
100% |
|
285 |
0% |
100% |
|
286 |
0% |
100% |
|
287 |
0% |
100% |
|
288 |
0% |
100% |
|
289 |
0% |
100% |
|
290 |
0% |
100% |
|
291 |
0% |
100% |
|
292 |
0% |
100% |
|
293 |
0% |
100% |
|
294 |
0% |
100% |
|
295 |
0% |
100% |
|
296 |
0% |
100% |
|
297 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
298 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
299 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
300 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
301 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
302 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
303 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
304 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
305 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
306 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
307 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
308 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
309 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
310 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
311 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
|
312 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
313 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
|
314 |
0.2% |
98.7% |
|
315 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
316 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
317 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
318 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
319 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
320 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
321 |
1.0% |
96% |
|
322 |
0.5% |
95% |
|
323 |
0.3% |
95% |
|
324 |
0.5% |
95% |
|
325 |
0.4% |
94% |
|
326 |
0.8% |
94% |
Majority |
327 |
3% |
93% |
|
328 |
0.7% |
91% |
|
329 |
1.2% |
90% |
|
330 |
1.2% |
89% |
|
331 |
1.0% |
88% |
|
332 |
1.1% |
87% |
|
333 |
1.2% |
85% |
|
334 |
1.2% |
84% |
|
335 |
1.0% |
83% |
|
336 |
2% |
82% |
|
337 |
0.7% |
80% |
|
338 |
1.4% |
79% |
|
339 |
2% |
78% |
|
340 |
2% |
76% |
|
341 |
3% |
74% |
|
342 |
1.2% |
71% |
|
343 |
2% |
70% |
|
344 |
2% |
68% |
|
345 |
0.7% |
66% |
|
346 |
1.5% |
66% |
|
347 |
2% |
64% |
|
348 |
2% |
62% |
|
349 |
2% |
60% |
|
350 |
3% |
58% |
|
351 |
2% |
55% |
|
352 |
4% |
53% |
|
353 |
2% |
49% |
Median |
354 |
2% |
48% |
|
355 |
2% |
46% |
|
356 |
3% |
44% |
|
357 |
2% |
41% |
|
358 |
1.2% |
39% |
|
359 |
4% |
38% |
|
360 |
3% |
34% |
|
361 |
2% |
31% |
|
362 |
2% |
29% |
|
363 |
2% |
27% |
|
364 |
2% |
25% |
|
365 |
3% |
24% |
|
366 |
3% |
20% |
|
367 |
2% |
18% |
|
368 |
1.1% |
15% |
|
369 |
1.1% |
14% |
|
370 |
1.1% |
13% |
|
371 |
1.0% |
12% |
|
372 |
2% |
11% |
|
373 |
1.1% |
9% |
|
374 |
1.0% |
7% |
|
375 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
376 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
377 |
0.9% |
5% |
|
378 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
379 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
380 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
381 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
382 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
383 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
384 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
385 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
386 |
0.3% |
1.3% |
|
387 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
388 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
389 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
390 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
391 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
392 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
393 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
394 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
395 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
396 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
397 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
398 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
399 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
400 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
401 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
402 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
403 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
404 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
405 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
406 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
407 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
408 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
250 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
251 |
0% |
100% |
|
252 |
0% |
100% |
|
253 |
0% |
100% |
|
254 |
0% |
100% |
|
255 |
0% |
100% |
|
256 |
0% |
100% |
|
257 |
0% |
100% |
|
258 |
0% |
100% |
|
259 |
0% |
100% |
|
260 |
0% |
100% |
|
261 |
0% |
100% |
|
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
100% |
|
264 |
0% |
100% |
|
265 |
0% |
100% |
|
266 |
0% |
100% |
|
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
100% |
|
269 |
0% |
100% |
|
270 |
0% |
100% |
|
271 |
0% |
100% |
|
272 |
0% |
100% |
|
273 |
0% |
100% |
|
274 |
0% |
100% |
|
275 |
0% |
100% |
|
276 |
0% |
100% |
|
277 |
0% |
100% |
|
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
100% |
|
280 |
0% |
100% |
|
281 |
0% |
100% |
|
282 |
0% |
100% |
|
283 |
0% |
100% |
|
284 |
0% |
100% |
|
285 |
0% |
100% |
|
286 |
0% |
100% |
|
287 |
0% |
100% |
|
288 |
0% |
100% |
|
289 |
0% |
100% |
|
290 |
0% |
100% |
|
291 |
0% |
100% |
|
292 |
0% |
100% |
|
293 |
0% |
100% |
|
294 |
0% |
100% |
|
295 |
0% |
100% |
|
296 |
0% |
100% |
|
297 |
0% |
100% |
|
298 |
0% |
100% |
|
299 |
0% |
100% |
|
300 |
0% |
100% |
|
301 |
0% |
100% |
|
302 |
0% |
100% |
|
303 |
0% |
100% |
|
304 |
0% |
100% |
|
305 |
0% |
100% |
|
306 |
0% |
100% |
|
307 |
0% |
100% |
|
308 |
0% |
100% |
|
309 |
0% |
100% |
|
310 |
0% |
100% |
|
311 |
0% |
100% |
|
312 |
0% |
100% |
|
313 |
0% |
100% |
|
314 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
315 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
316 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
317 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
318 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
319 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
320 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
321 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
322 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
323 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
324 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
325 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
326 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
Majority |
327 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
|
328 |
0.3% |
98.6% |
|
329 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
330 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
331 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
332 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
333 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
334 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
335 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
336 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
337 |
0.7% |
95% |
|
338 |
0.9% |
95% |
|
339 |
1.1% |
94% |
|
340 |
1.3% |
93% |
|
341 |
2% |
91% |
|
342 |
1.4% |
90% |
|
343 |
2% |
88% |
|
344 |
2% |
86% |
|
345 |
1.4% |
84% |
|
346 |
1.4% |
82% |
|
347 |
1.5% |
81% |
|
348 |
3% |
79% |
|
349 |
2% |
77% |
|
350 |
2% |
75% |
|
351 |
3% |
72% |
|
352 |
2% |
70% |
|
353 |
1.5% |
68% |
|
354 |
2% |
67% |
|
355 |
2% |
65% |
|
356 |
2% |
63% |
|
357 |
1.0% |
61% |
|
358 |
2% |
60% |
|
359 |
2% |
58% |
|
360 |
2% |
55% |
|
361 |
5% |
53% |
|
362 |
3% |
49% |
Median |
363 |
3% |
46% |
|
364 |
3% |
43% |
|
365 |
4% |
40% |
|
366 |
2% |
36% |
|
367 |
5% |
34% |
|
368 |
5% |
30% |
|
369 |
3% |
25% |
|
370 |
4% |
22% |
|
371 |
4% |
18% |
|
372 |
3% |
14% |
|
373 |
2% |
11% |
|
374 |
2% |
9% |
|
375 |
2% |
8% |
|
376 |
2% |
6% |
|
377 |
1.1% |
4% |
|
378 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
379 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
380 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
381 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
382 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
|
383 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
384 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
385 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
386 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
387 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
388 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
389 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
390 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
391 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
392 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
393 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
394 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
395 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
396 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
397 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
398 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
399 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
400 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
213 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
214 |
0% |
100% |
|
215 |
0% |
100% |
|
216 |
0% |
100% |
|
217 |
0% |
100% |
|
218 |
0% |
100% |
|
219 |
0% |
100% |
|
220 |
0% |
100% |
|
221 |
0% |
100% |
|
222 |
0% |
100% |
|
223 |
0% |
100% |
|
224 |
0% |
100% |
|
225 |
0% |
100% |
|
226 |
0% |
100% |
|
227 |
0% |
100% |
|
228 |
0% |
100% |
|
229 |
0% |
100% |
|
230 |
0% |
100% |
|
231 |
0% |
100% |
|
232 |
0% |
100% |
|
233 |
0% |
100% |
|
234 |
0% |
100% |
|
235 |
0% |
100% |
|
236 |
0% |
100% |
|
237 |
0% |
100% |
|
238 |
0% |
100% |
|
239 |
0% |
100% |
|
240 |
0% |
100% |
|
241 |
0% |
100% |
|
242 |
0% |
100% |
|
243 |
0% |
100% |
|
244 |
0% |
100% |
|
245 |
0% |
100% |
|
246 |
0% |
100% |
|
247 |
0% |
100% |
|
248 |
0% |
100% |
|
249 |
0% |
100% |
|
250 |
0% |
100% |
|
251 |
0% |
100% |
|
252 |
0% |
100% |
|
253 |
0% |
100% |
|
254 |
0% |
100% |
|
255 |
0% |
100% |
|
256 |
0% |
100% |
|
257 |
0% |
100% |
|
258 |
0% |
100% |
|
259 |
0% |
100% |
|
260 |
0% |
100% |
|
261 |
0% |
100% |
|
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
100% |
|
264 |
0% |
100% |
|
265 |
0% |
100% |
|
266 |
0% |
100% |
|
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
100% |
|
269 |
0% |
100% |
|
270 |
0% |
100% |
|
271 |
0% |
100% |
|
272 |
0% |
100% |
|
273 |
0% |
100% |
|
274 |
0% |
100% |
|
275 |
0% |
100% |
|
276 |
0% |
100% |
|
277 |
0% |
100% |
|
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
100% |
|
280 |
0% |
100% |
|
281 |
0% |
100% |
|
282 |
0% |
100% |
|
283 |
0% |
100% |
|
284 |
0% |
100% |
|
285 |
0% |
100% |
|
286 |
0% |
100% |
|
287 |
0% |
100% |
|
288 |
0% |
100% |
|
289 |
0% |
100% |
|
290 |
0% |
100% |
|
291 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
292 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
293 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
294 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
295 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
296 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
297 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
298 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
299 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
300 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
301 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
302 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
303 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
304 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
305 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
306 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
|
307 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
308 |
0.2% |
98.7% |
|
309 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
|
310 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
311 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
312 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
313 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
314 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
315 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
316 |
1.1% |
96% |
|
317 |
0.3% |
95% |
|
318 |
0.3% |
95% |
|
319 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
320 |
0.5% |
94% |
|
321 |
0.8% |
94% |
|
322 |
3% |
93% |
|
323 |
0.5% |
90% |
|
324 |
1.3% |
90% |
|
325 |
1.0% |
88% |
|
326 |
0.9% |
87% |
Majority |
327 |
1.1% |
86% |
|
328 |
1.3% |
85% |
|
329 |
2% |
84% |
|
330 |
0.8% |
82% |
|
331 |
2% |
82% |
|
332 |
0.6% |
80% |
|
333 |
1.0% |
79% |
|
334 |
2% |
78% |
|
335 |
2% |
76% |
|
336 |
2% |
73% |
|
337 |
1.2% |
71% |
|
338 |
2% |
70% |
|
339 |
1.3% |
68% |
|
340 |
1.3% |
66% |
|
341 |
0.9% |
65% |
|
342 |
2% |
64% |
|
343 |
2% |
62% |
|
344 |
3% |
60% |
|
345 |
3% |
57% |
|
346 |
2% |
54% |
|
347 |
3% |
52% |
|
348 |
2% |
49% |
Median |
349 |
2% |
47% |
|
350 |
2% |
46% |
|
351 |
3% |
43% |
|
352 |
2% |
41% |
|
353 |
1.1% |
39% |
|
354 |
5% |
38% |
|
355 |
2% |
33% |
|
356 |
2% |
30% |
|
357 |
1.5% |
29% |
|
358 |
2% |
27% |
|
359 |
2% |
25% |
|
360 |
3% |
23% |
|
361 |
2% |
20% |
|
362 |
3% |
18% |
|
363 |
0.9% |
15% |
|
364 |
1.1% |
14% |
|
365 |
1.1% |
13% |
|
366 |
1.0% |
12% |
|
367 |
3% |
11% |
|
368 |
1.0% |
8% |
|
369 |
0.8% |
7% |
|
370 |
0.8% |
6% |
|
371 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
372 |
0.7% |
5% |
|
373 |
0.8% |
4% |
|
374 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
375 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
376 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
377 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
378 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
379 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
380 |
0.1% |
1.5% |
|
381 |
0.3% |
1.3% |
|
382 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
383 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
384 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
385 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
386 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
387 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
388 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
389 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
390 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
391 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
392 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
393 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
394 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
395 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
396 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
397 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
398 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
399 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
400 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
401 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
402 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
403 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
206 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
207 |
0% |
100% |
|
208 |
0% |
100% |
|
209 |
0% |
100% |
|
210 |
0% |
100% |
|
211 |
0% |
100% |
|
212 |
0% |
100% |
|
213 |
0% |
100% |
|
214 |
0% |
100% |
|
215 |
0% |
100% |
|
216 |
0% |
100% |
|
217 |
0% |
100% |
|
218 |
0% |
100% |
|
219 |
0% |
100% |
|
220 |
0% |
100% |
|
221 |
0% |
100% |
|
222 |
0% |
100% |
|
223 |
0% |
100% |
|
224 |
0% |
100% |
|
225 |
0% |
100% |
|
226 |
0% |
100% |
|
227 |
0% |
100% |
|
228 |
0% |
100% |
|
229 |
0% |
100% |
|
230 |
0% |
100% |
|
231 |
0% |
100% |
|
232 |
0% |
100% |
|
233 |
0% |
100% |
|
234 |
0% |
100% |
|
235 |
0% |
100% |
|
236 |
0% |
100% |
|
237 |
0% |
100% |
|
238 |
0% |
100% |
|
239 |
0% |
100% |
|
240 |
0% |
100% |
|
241 |
0% |
100% |
|
242 |
0% |
100% |
|
243 |
0% |
100% |
|
244 |
0% |
100% |
|
245 |
0% |
100% |
|
246 |
0% |
100% |
|
247 |
0% |
100% |
|
248 |
0% |
100% |
|
249 |
0% |
100% |
|
250 |
0% |
100% |
|
251 |
0% |
100% |
|
252 |
0% |
100% |
|
253 |
0% |
100% |
|
254 |
0% |
100% |
|
255 |
0% |
100% |
|
256 |
0% |
100% |
|
257 |
0% |
100% |
|
258 |
0% |
100% |
|
259 |
0% |
100% |
|
260 |
0% |
100% |
|
261 |
0% |
100% |
|
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
100% |
|
264 |
0% |
100% |
|
265 |
0% |
100% |
|
266 |
0% |
100% |
|
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
100% |
|
269 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
270 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
271 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
272 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
273 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
274 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
275 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
276 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
277 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
278 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
279 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
280 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
281 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
282 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
|
283 |
0.3% |
98.9% |
|
284 |
0.2% |
98.5% |
|
285 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
286 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
287 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
288 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
289 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
290 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
291 |
0.6% |
96% |
|
292 |
0.9% |
95% |
|
293 |
0.6% |
94% |
|
294 |
1.0% |
94% |
|
295 |
2% |
93% |
|
296 |
1.1% |
90% |
|
297 |
3% |
89% |
|
298 |
0.6% |
86% |
|
299 |
0.8% |
86% |
|
300 |
2% |
85% |
|
301 |
1.1% |
83% |
|
302 |
2% |
82% |
|
303 |
2% |
81% |
|
304 |
2% |
78% |
|
305 |
2% |
77% |
|
306 |
2% |
74% |
|
307 |
2% |
72% |
|
308 |
2% |
70% |
|
309 |
1.3% |
68% |
|
310 |
2% |
66% |
|
311 |
2% |
64% |
|
312 |
2% |
62% |
|
313 |
3% |
60% |
|
314 |
4% |
58% |
|
315 |
4% |
53% |
Median |
316 |
2% |
49% |
|
317 |
3% |
47% |
|
318 |
2% |
44% |
|
319 |
2% |
42% |
|
320 |
3% |
41% |
|
321 |
4% |
37% |
|
322 |
2% |
34% |
|
323 |
5% |
32% |
|
324 |
4% |
27% |
|
325 |
4% |
23% |
|
326 |
2% |
20% |
Majority |
327 |
2% |
17% |
|
328 |
2% |
15% |
|
329 |
2% |
13% |
|
330 |
1.1% |
11% |
|
331 |
2% |
10% |
|
332 |
0.6% |
8% |
|
333 |
1.1% |
7% |
|
334 |
1.2% |
6% |
|
335 |
1.2% |
5% |
|
336 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
337 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
338 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
339 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
340 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
341 |
0.2% |
1.5% |
|
342 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
343 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
344 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
345 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
346 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
347 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
348 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
349 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
350 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
351 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
352 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
353 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
354 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
355 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
356 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
357 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
358 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
359 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
202 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
203 |
0% |
100% |
|
204 |
0% |
100% |
|
205 |
0% |
100% |
|
206 |
0% |
100% |
|
207 |
0% |
100% |
|
208 |
0% |
100% |
|
209 |
0% |
100% |
|
210 |
0% |
100% |
|
211 |
0% |
100% |
|
212 |
0% |
100% |
|
213 |
0% |
100% |
|
214 |
0% |
100% |
|
215 |
0% |
100% |
|
216 |
0% |
100% |
|
217 |
0% |
100% |
|
218 |
0% |
100% |
|
219 |
0% |
100% |
|
220 |
0% |
100% |
|
221 |
0% |
100% |
|
222 |
0% |
100% |
|
223 |
0% |
100% |
|
224 |
0% |
100% |
|
225 |
0% |
100% |
|
226 |
0% |
100% |
|
227 |
0% |
100% |
|
228 |
0% |
100% |
|
229 |
0% |
100% |
|
230 |
0% |
100% |
|
231 |
0% |
100% |
|
232 |
0% |
100% |
|
233 |
0% |
100% |
|
234 |
0% |
100% |
|
235 |
0% |
100% |
|
236 |
0% |
100% |
|
237 |
0% |
100% |
|
238 |
0% |
100% |
|
239 |
0% |
100% |
|
240 |
0% |
100% |
|
241 |
0% |
100% |
|
242 |
0% |
100% |
|
243 |
0% |
100% |
|
244 |
0% |
100% |
|
245 |
0% |
100% |
|
246 |
0% |
100% |
|
247 |
0% |
100% |
|
248 |
0% |
100% |
|
249 |
0% |
100% |
|
250 |
0% |
100% |
|
251 |
0% |
100% |
|
252 |
0% |
100% |
|
253 |
0% |
100% |
|
254 |
0% |
100% |
|
255 |
0% |
100% |
|
256 |
0% |
100% |
|
257 |
0% |
100% |
|
258 |
0% |
100% |
|
259 |
0% |
100% |
|
260 |
0% |
100% |
|
261 |
0% |
100% |
|
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
100% |
|
264 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
265 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
266 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
267 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
268 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
269 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
270 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
271 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
272 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
273 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
274 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
275 |
0.3% |
99.5% |
|
276 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
277 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
|
278 |
0.3% |
98.8% |
|
279 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
280 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
281 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
282 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
283 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
284 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
285 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
286 |
0.5% |
95% |
|
287 |
0.9% |
95% |
|
288 |
0.8% |
94% |
|
289 |
1.0% |
93% |
|
290 |
2% |
92% |
|
291 |
1.1% |
90% |
|
292 |
2% |
89% |
|
293 |
0.5% |
86% |
|
294 |
1.4% |
86% |
|
295 |
1.2% |
84% |
|
296 |
1.3% |
83% |
|
297 |
2% |
82% |
|
298 |
2% |
80% |
|
299 |
2% |
78% |
|
300 |
2% |
76% |
|
301 |
2% |
73% |
|
302 |
2% |
71% |
|
303 |
2% |
70% |
|
304 |
1.2% |
67% |
|
305 |
2% |
66% |
|
306 |
3% |
64% |
|
307 |
2% |
61% |
|
308 |
2% |
59% |
|
309 |
4% |
57% |
|
310 |
5% |
53% |
Median |
311 |
2% |
48% |
|
312 |
3% |
46% |
|
313 |
2% |
44% |
|
314 |
2% |
41% |
|
315 |
3% |
40% |
|
316 |
4% |
37% |
|
317 |
2% |
33% |
|
318 |
5% |
32% |
|
319 |
3% |
26% |
|
320 |
4% |
23% |
|
321 |
2% |
19% |
|
322 |
3% |
17% |
|
323 |
2% |
15% |
|
324 |
2% |
13% |
|
325 |
1.1% |
11% |
|
326 |
2% |
10% |
Majority |
327 |
0.8% |
8% |
|
328 |
0.8% |
7% |
|
329 |
1.5% |
6% |
|
330 |
1.1% |
5% |
|
331 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
332 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
333 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
334 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
335 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
336 |
0.2% |
1.5% |
|
337 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
338 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
339 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
340 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
341 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
342 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
343 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
344 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
345 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
346 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
347 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
348 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
349 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
350 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
351 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
352 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
353 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
354 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
227 |
0% |
100% |
|
228 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
229 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
230 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
231 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
232 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
233 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
234 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
235 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
236 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
237 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
238 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
239 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
240 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
241 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
242 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
243 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
244 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
245 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
246 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
247 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
248 |
0.3% |
98.9% |
|
249 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
250 |
0.3% |
98.5% |
|
251 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
252 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
253 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
254 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
255 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
256 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
257 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
258 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
259 |
0.8% |
94% |
|
260 |
0.8% |
94% |
|
261 |
1.0% |
93% |
|
262 |
3% |
92% |
|
263 |
1.0% |
89% |
|
264 |
1.1% |
88% |
|
265 |
1.1% |
87% |
|
266 |
0.9% |
86% |
|
267 |
3% |
85% |
|
268 |
2% |
82% |
|
269 |
3% |
80% |
|
270 |
2% |
77% |
|
271 |
2% |
75% |
|
272 |
1.5% |
73% |
|
273 |
2% |
71% |
|
274 |
2% |
70% |
|
275 |
5% |
67% |
|
276 |
1.1% |
62% |
|
277 |
2% |
61% |
|
278 |
3% |
59% |
|
279 |
2% |
57% |
|
280 |
2% |
54% |
|
281 |
2% |
53% |
|
282 |
3% |
51% |
|
283 |
2% |
48% |
Median |
284 |
3% |
46% |
|
285 |
3% |
43% |
|
286 |
2% |
40% |
|
287 |
2% |
38% |
|
288 |
0.9% |
36% |
|
289 |
1.3% |
35% |
|
290 |
1.3% |
34% |
|
291 |
2% |
32% |
|
292 |
1.2% |
30% |
|
293 |
2% |
29% |
|
294 |
2% |
27% |
|
295 |
2% |
25% |
|
296 |
1.0% |
22% |
|
297 |
0.6% |
21% |
|
298 |
2% |
21% |
|
299 |
0.9% |
18% |
|
300 |
2% |
18% |
|
301 |
1.2% |
16% |
|
302 |
1.1% |
15% |
|
303 |
0.8% |
14% |
|
304 |
1.1% |
13% |
|
305 |
1.0% |
12% |
|
306 |
0.9% |
11% |
|
307 |
2% |
10% |
|
308 |
1.2% |
8% |
|
309 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
310 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
311 |
0.5% |
6% |
|
312 |
0.2% |
5% |
|
313 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
314 |
0.9% |
5% |
|
315 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
316 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
317 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
318 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
319 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
320 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
321 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
322 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
323 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
|
324 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
325 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
326 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
Majority |
327 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
328 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
329 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
330 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
331 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
332 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
333 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
334 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
335 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
336 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
337 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
338 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
339 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
340 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
341 |
0% |
0% |
|
342 |
0% |
0% |
|
343 |
0% |
0% |
|
344 |
0% |
0% |
|
345 |
0% |
0% |
|
346 |
0% |
0% |
|
347 |
0% |
0% |
|
348 |
0% |
0% |
|
349 |
0% |
0% |
|
350 |
0% |
0% |
|
351 |
0% |
0% |
|
352 |
0% |
0% |
|
353 |
0% |
0% |
|
354 |
0% |
0% |
|
355 |
0% |
0% |
|
356 |
0% |
0% |
|
357 |
0% |
0% |
|
358 |
0% |
0% |
|
359 |
0% |
0% |
|
360 |
0% |
0% |
|
361 |
0% |
0% |
|
362 |
0% |
0% |
|
363 |
0% |
0% |
|
364 |
0% |
0% |
|
365 |
0% |
0% |
|
366 |
0% |
0% |
|
367 |
0% |
0% |
|
368 |
0% |
0% |
|
369 |
0% |
0% |
|
370 |
0% |
0% |
|
371 |
0% |
0% |
|
372 |
0% |
0% |
|
373 |
0% |
0% |
|
374 |
0% |
0% |
|
375 |
0% |
0% |
|
376 |
0% |
0% |
|
377 |
0% |
0% |
|
378 |
0% |
0% |
|
379 |
0% |
0% |
|
380 |
0% |
0% |
|
381 |
0% |
0% |
|
382 |
0% |
0% |
|
383 |
0% |
0% |
|
384 |
0% |
0% |
|
385 |
0% |
0% |
|
386 |
0% |
0% |
|
387 |
0% |
0% |
|
388 |
0% |
0% |
|
389 |
0% |
0% |
|
390 |
0% |
0% |
|
391 |
0% |
0% |
|
392 |
0% |
0% |
|
393 |
0% |
0% |
|
394 |
0% |
0% |
|
395 |
0% |
0% |
|
396 |
0% |
0% |
|
397 |
0% |
0% |
|
398 |
0% |
0% |
|
399 |
0% |
0% |
|
400 |
0% |
0% |
|
401 |
0% |
0% |
|
402 |
0% |
0% |
|
403 |
0% |
0% |
|
404 |
0% |
0% |
|
405 |
0% |
0% |
|
406 |
0% |
0% |
|
407 |
0% |
0% |
|
408 |
0% |
0% |
|
409 |
0% |
0% |
|
410 |
0% |
0% |
|
411 |
0% |
0% |
|
412 |
0% |
0% |
|
413 |
0% |
0% |
|
414 |
0% |
0% |
|
415 |
0% |
0% |
|
416 |
0% |
0% |
|
417 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
222 |
0% |
100% |
|
223 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
224 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
225 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
226 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
227 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
228 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
229 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
230 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
231 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
232 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
233 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
234 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
235 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
236 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
237 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
238 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
239 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
240 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
241 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
242 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
243 |
0.3% |
98.9% |
|
244 |
0.2% |
98.7% |
|
245 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
246 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
247 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
248 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
249 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
250 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
251 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
252 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
253 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
254 |
0.6% |
94% |
|
255 |
1.0% |
94% |
|
256 |
1.1% |
93% |
|
257 |
2% |
91% |
|
258 |
1.0% |
89% |
|
259 |
1.1% |
88% |
|
260 |
1.1% |
87% |
|
261 |
1.1% |
86% |
|
262 |
2% |
85% |
|
263 |
3% |
82% |
|
264 |
3% |
80% |
|
265 |
2% |
76% |
|
266 |
2% |
75% |
|
267 |
2% |
73% |
|
268 |
2% |
71% |
|
269 |
3% |
69% |
|
270 |
4% |
66% |
|
271 |
1.2% |
62% |
|
272 |
2% |
61% |
|
273 |
3% |
59% |
|
274 |
2% |
56% |
|
275 |
2% |
54% |
|
276 |
2% |
52% |
|
277 |
4% |
51% |
|
278 |
2% |
47% |
Median |
279 |
3% |
45% |
|
280 |
2% |
42% |
|
281 |
2% |
40% |
|
282 |
2% |
38% |
|
283 |
1.5% |
36% |
|
284 |
0.7% |
34% |
|
285 |
2% |
34% |
|
286 |
2% |
32% |
|
287 |
1.3% |
30% |
|
288 |
3% |
29% |
|
289 |
2% |
26% |
|
290 |
2% |
24% |
|
291 |
1.3% |
22% |
|
292 |
0.7% |
21% |
|
293 |
2% |
20% |
|
294 |
1.0% |
18% |
|
295 |
1.2% |
17% |
|
296 |
1.1% |
16% |
|
297 |
1.2% |
15% |
|
298 |
0.8% |
13% |
|
299 |
1.3% |
13% |
|
300 |
0.9% |
11% |
|
301 |
1.0% |
10% |
|
302 |
2% |
9% |
|
303 |
1.1% |
7% |
|
304 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
305 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
306 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
307 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
308 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
309 |
0.8% |
4% |
|
310 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
311 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
312 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
313 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
314 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
315 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
316 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
317 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
|
318 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
319 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
320 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
321 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
322 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
323 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
324 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
325 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
326 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
328 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
329 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
330 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
331 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
332 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
333 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
334 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
335 |
0% |
0% |
|
336 |
0% |
0% |
|
337 |
0% |
0% |
|
338 |
0% |
0% |
|
339 |
0% |
0% |
|
340 |
0% |
0% |
|
341 |
0% |
0% |
|
342 |
0% |
0% |
|
343 |
0% |
0% |
|
344 |
0% |
0% |
|
345 |
0% |
0% |
|
346 |
0% |
0% |
|
347 |
0% |
0% |
|
348 |
0% |
0% |
|
349 |
0% |
0% |
|
350 |
0% |
0% |
|
351 |
0% |
0% |
|
352 |
0% |
0% |
|
353 |
0% |
0% |
|
354 |
0% |
0% |
|
355 |
0% |
0% |
|
356 |
0% |
0% |
|
357 |
0% |
0% |
|
358 |
0% |
0% |
|
359 |
0% |
0% |
|
360 |
0% |
0% |
|
361 |
0% |
0% |
|
362 |
0% |
0% |
|
363 |
0% |
0% |
|
364 |
0% |
0% |
|
365 |
0% |
0% |
|
366 |
0% |
0% |
|
367 |
0% |
0% |
|
368 |
0% |
0% |
|
369 |
0% |
0% |
|
370 |
0% |
0% |
|
371 |
0% |
0% |
|
372 |
0% |
0% |
|
373 |
0% |
0% |
|
374 |
0% |
0% |
|
375 |
0% |
0% |
|
376 |
0% |
0% |
|
377 |
0% |
0% |
|
378 |
0% |
0% |
|
379 |
0% |
0% |
|
380 |
0% |
0% |
|
381 |
0% |
0% |
|
382 |
0% |
0% |
|
383 |
0% |
0% |
|
384 |
0% |
0% |
|
385 |
0% |
0% |
|
386 |
0% |
0% |
|
387 |
0% |
0% |
|
388 |
0% |
0% |
|
389 |
0% |
0% |
|
390 |
0% |
0% |
|
391 |
0% |
0% |
|
392 |
0% |
0% |
|
393 |
0% |
0% |
|
394 |
0% |
0% |
|
395 |
0% |
0% |
|
396 |
0% |
0% |
|
397 |
0% |
0% |
|
398 |
0% |
0% |
|
399 |
0% |
0% |
|
400 |
0% |
0% |
|
401 |
0% |
0% |
|
402 |
0% |
0% |
|
403 |
0% |
0% |
|
404 |
0% |
0% |
|
405 |
0% |
0% |
|
406 |
0% |
0% |
|
407 |
0% |
0% |
|
408 |
0% |
0% |
|
409 |
0% |
0% |
|
410 |
0% |
0% |
|
411 |
0% |
0% |
|
412 |
0% |
0% |
|
413 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
225 |
0% |
100% |
|
226 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
227 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
228 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
229 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
230 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
231 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
232 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
233 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
234 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
235 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
236 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
237 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
238 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
239 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
240 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
241 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
242 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
|
243 |
0.5% |
98.7% |
|
244 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
245 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
246 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
247 |
2% |
97% |
|
248 |
2% |
96% |
|
249 |
2% |
94% |
|
250 |
2% |
92% |
|
251 |
2% |
91% |
|
252 |
3% |
89% |
|
253 |
4% |
85% |
|
254 |
4% |
81% |
|
255 |
4% |
78% |
|
256 |
5% |
74% |
|
257 |
3% |
69% |
|
258 |
2% |
66% |
|
259 |
4% |
64% |
|
260 |
3% |
59% |
|
261 |
3% |
57% |
|
262 |
3% |
54% |
|
263 |
5% |
51% |
|
264 |
3% |
46% |
Median |
265 |
2% |
44% |
|
266 |
2% |
42% |
|
267 |
1.0% |
40% |
|
268 |
2% |
39% |
|
269 |
2% |
37% |
|
270 |
2% |
35% |
|
271 |
2% |
33% |
|
272 |
2% |
32% |
|
273 |
3% |
30% |
|
274 |
3% |
27% |
|
275 |
1.4% |
24% |
|
276 |
2% |
23% |
|
277 |
2% |
20% |
|
278 |
1.2% |
18% |
|
279 |
1.2% |
17% |
|
280 |
2% |
16% |
|
281 |
3% |
14% |
|
282 |
1.2% |
11% |
|
283 |
0.9% |
10% |
|
284 |
1.4% |
9% |
|
285 |
0.6% |
7% |
|
286 |
1.4% |
7% |
|
287 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
288 |
0.9% |
5% |
|
289 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
290 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
291 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
292 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
293 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
294 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
295 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
296 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
297 |
0.2% |
1.5% |
|
298 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
299 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
300 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
301 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
302 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
303 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
304 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
305 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
306 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
307 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
308 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
309 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
310 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
311 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
312 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
313 |
0% |
0% |
|
314 |
0% |
0% |
|
315 |
0% |
0% |
|
316 |
0% |
0% |
|
317 |
0% |
0% |
|
318 |
0% |
0% |
|
319 |
0% |
0% |
|
320 |
0% |
0% |
|
321 |
0% |
0% |
|
322 |
0% |
0% |
|
323 |
0% |
0% |
|
324 |
0% |
0% |
|
325 |
0% |
0% |
|
326 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
0% |
|
328 |
0% |
0% |
|
329 |
0% |
0% |
|
330 |
0% |
0% |
|
331 |
0% |
0% |
|
332 |
0% |
0% |
|
333 |
0% |
0% |
|
334 |
0% |
0% |
|
335 |
0% |
0% |
|
336 |
0% |
0% |
|
337 |
0% |
0% |
|
338 |
0% |
0% |
|
339 |
0% |
0% |
|
340 |
0% |
0% |
|
341 |
0% |
0% |
|
342 |
0% |
0% |
|
343 |
0% |
0% |
|
344 |
0% |
0% |
|
345 |
0% |
0% |
|
346 |
0% |
0% |
|
347 |
0% |
0% |
|
348 |
0% |
0% |
|
349 |
0% |
0% |
|
350 |
0% |
0% |
|
351 |
0% |
0% |
|
352 |
0% |
0% |
|
353 |
0% |
0% |
|
354 |
0% |
0% |
|
355 |
0% |
0% |
|
356 |
0% |
0% |
|
357 |
0% |
0% |
|
358 |
0% |
0% |
|
359 |
0% |
0% |
|
360 |
0% |
0% |
|
361 |
0% |
0% |
|
362 |
0% |
0% |
|
363 |
0% |
0% |
|
364 |
0% |
0% |
|
365 |
0% |
0% |
|
366 |
0% |
0% |
|
367 |
0% |
0% |
|
368 |
0% |
0% |
|
369 |
0% |
0% |
|
370 |
0% |
0% |
|
371 |
0% |
0% |
|
372 |
0% |
0% |
|
373 |
0% |
0% |
|
374 |
0% |
0% |
|
375 |
0% |
0% |
|
376 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
182 |
0% |
100% |
|
183 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
184 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
185 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
186 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
187 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
188 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
189 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
190 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
191 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
192 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
193 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
194 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
195 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
196 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
197 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
198 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
199 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
200 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
201 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
202 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
|
203 |
0.3% |
98.7% |
|
204 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
205 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
206 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
207 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
208 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
209 |
0.6% |
96% |
|
210 |
0.8% |
95% |
|
211 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
212 |
2% |
94% |
|
213 |
0.8% |
92% |
|
214 |
0.9% |
91% |
|
215 |
1.2% |
90% |
|
216 |
2% |
89% |
|
217 |
2% |
87% |
|
218 |
4% |
85% |
|
219 |
3% |
81% |
|
220 |
2% |
78% |
|
221 |
2% |
76% |
|
222 |
1.1% |
74% |
|
223 |
2% |
73% |
|
224 |
4% |
72% |
|
225 |
5% |
68% |
|
226 |
2% |
63% |
|
227 |
2% |
60% |
|
228 |
1.0% |
58% |
|
229 |
2% |
57% |
|
230 |
3% |
56% |
|
231 |
3% |
52% |
Median |
232 |
2% |
49% |
|
233 |
3% |
47% |
|
234 |
3% |
45% |
|
235 |
1.2% |
42% |
|
236 |
0.8% |
41% |
|
237 |
1.1% |
40% |
|
238 |
3% |
39% |
|
239 |
4% |
36% |
|
240 |
1.1% |
32% |
|
241 |
2% |
31% |
|
242 |
2% |
30% |
|
243 |
2% |
28% |
|
244 |
0.7% |
26% |
|
245 |
2% |
26% |
|
246 |
1.0% |
24% |
|
247 |
2% |
23% |
|
248 |
2% |
21% |
|
249 |
2% |
18% |
|
250 |
1.0% |
16% |
|
251 |
0.5% |
15% |
|
252 |
0.8% |
14% |
|
253 |
1.0% |
14% |
|
254 |
2% |
13% |
|
255 |
2% |
11% |
|
256 |
1.2% |
9% |
|
257 |
0.6% |
8% |
|
258 |
0.3% |
7% |
|
259 |
0.5% |
7% |
|
260 |
0.8% |
7% |
|
261 |
0.9% |
6% |
|
262 |
0.7% |
5% |
|
263 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
264 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
265 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
266 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
267 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
268 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
269 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
270 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
271 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
272 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
|
273 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
274 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
275 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
276 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
277 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
278 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
279 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
280 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
281 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
282 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
283 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
284 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
285 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
286 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
287 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
288 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
289 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
290 |
0% |
0% |
|
291 |
0% |
0% |
|
292 |
0% |
0% |
|
293 |
0% |
0% |
|
294 |
0% |
0% |
|
295 |
0% |
0% |
|
296 |
0% |
0% |
|
297 |
0% |
0% |
|
298 |
0% |
0% |
|
299 |
0% |
0% |
|
300 |
0% |
0% |
|
301 |
0% |
0% |
|
302 |
0% |
0% |
|
303 |
0% |
0% |
|
304 |
0% |
0% |
|
305 |
0% |
0% |
|
306 |
0% |
0% |
|
307 |
0% |
0% |
|
308 |
0% |
0% |
|
309 |
0% |
0% |
|
310 |
0% |
0% |
|
311 |
0% |
0% |
|
312 |
0% |
0% |
|
313 |
0% |
0% |
|
314 |
0% |
0% |
|
315 |
0% |
0% |
|
316 |
0% |
0% |
|
317 |
0% |
0% |
|
318 |
0% |
0% |
|
319 |
0% |
0% |
|
320 |
0% |
0% |
|
321 |
0% |
0% |
|
322 |
0% |
0% |
|
323 |
0% |
0% |
|
324 |
0% |
0% |
|
325 |
0% |
0% |
|
326 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
0% |
|
328 |
0% |
0% |
|
329 |
0% |
0% |
|
330 |
0% |
0% |
|
331 |
0% |
0% |
|
332 |
0% |
0% |
|
333 |
0% |
0% |
|
334 |
0% |
0% |
|
335 |
0% |
0% |
|
336 |
0% |
0% |
|
337 |
0% |
0% |
|
338 |
0% |
0% |
|
339 |
0% |
0% |
|
340 |
0% |
0% |
|
341 |
0% |
0% |
|
342 |
0% |
0% |
|
343 |
0% |
0% |
|
344 |
0% |
0% |
|
345 |
0% |
0% |
|
346 |
0% |
0% |
|
347 |
0% |
0% |
|
348 |
0% |
0% |
|
349 |
0% |
0% |
|
350 |
0% |
0% |
|
351 |
0% |
0% |
|
352 |
0% |
0% |
|
353 |
0% |
0% |
|
354 |
0% |
0% |
|
355 |
0% |
0% |
|
356 |
0% |
0% |
|
357 |
0% |
0% |
|
358 |
0% |
0% |
|
359 |
0% |
0% |
|
360 |
0% |
0% |
|
361 |
0% |
0% |
|
362 |
0% |
0% |
|
363 |
0% |
0% |
|
364 |
0% |
0% |
|
365 |
0% |
0% |
|
366 |
0% |
0% |
|
367 |
0% |
0% |
|
368 |
0% |
0% |
|
369 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Conservative Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
177 |
0% |
100% |
|
178 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
179 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
180 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
181 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
182 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
183 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
184 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
185 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
186 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
187 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
188 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
189 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
190 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
191 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
192 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
193 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
194 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
195 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
|
196 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
197 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
|
198 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
|
199 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
200 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
201 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
202 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
203 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
204 |
0.6% |
96% |
|
205 |
0.9% |
95% |
|
206 |
0.6% |
94% |
|
207 |
2% |
94% |
|
208 |
1.2% |
92% |
|
209 |
0.8% |
91% |
|
210 |
2% |
90% |
|
211 |
1.5% |
89% |
|
212 |
3% |
87% |
|
213 |
4% |
84% |
|
214 |
3% |
81% |
|
215 |
2% |
78% |
|
216 |
2% |
76% |
|
217 |
1.3% |
74% |
|
218 |
2% |
72% |
|
219 |
3% |
71% |
|
220 |
5% |
68% |
|
221 |
3% |
63% |
|
222 |
2% |
60% |
|
223 |
2% |
58% |
|
224 |
1.1% |
56% |
|
225 |
4% |
55% |
|
226 |
3% |
51% |
Median |
227 |
2% |
49% |
|
228 |
2% |
47% |
|
229 |
3% |
45% |
|
230 |
1.3% |
42% |
|
231 |
1.2% |
40% |
|
232 |
1.5% |
39% |
|
233 |
3% |
38% |
|
234 |
3% |
35% |
|
235 |
0.8% |
32% |
|
236 |
2% |
31% |
|
237 |
2% |
29% |
|
238 |
1.4% |
28% |
|
239 |
0.9% |
26% |
|
240 |
2% |
25% |
|
241 |
1.0% |
23% |
|
242 |
2% |
22% |
|
243 |
2% |
20% |
|
244 |
3% |
18% |
|
245 |
1.0% |
16% |
|
246 |
0.3% |
15% |
|
247 |
1.0% |
14% |
|
248 |
1.1% |
13% |
|
249 |
1.3% |
12% |
|
250 |
2% |
11% |
|
251 |
1.5% |
9% |
|
252 |
0.4% |
8% |
|
253 |
0.3% |
7% |
|
254 |
0.6% |
7% |
|
255 |
1.0% |
6% |
|
256 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
257 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
258 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
259 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
260 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
261 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
262 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
263 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
264 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
265 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
266 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
267 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
|
268 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
269 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
270 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
271 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
272 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
273 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
274 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
275 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
276 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
277 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
278 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
279 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
280 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
281 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
282 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
283 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
284 |
0% |
0% |
|
285 |
0% |
0% |
|
286 |
0% |
0% |
|
287 |
0% |
0% |
|
288 |
0% |
0% |
|
289 |
0% |
0% |
|
290 |
0% |
0% |
|
291 |
0% |
0% |
|
292 |
0% |
0% |
|
293 |
0% |
0% |
|
294 |
0% |
0% |
|
295 |
0% |
0% |
|
296 |
0% |
0% |
|
297 |
0% |
0% |
|
298 |
0% |
0% |
|
299 |
0% |
0% |
|
300 |
0% |
0% |
|
301 |
0% |
0% |
|
302 |
0% |
0% |
|
303 |
0% |
0% |
|
304 |
0% |
0% |
|
305 |
0% |
0% |
|
306 |
0% |
0% |
|
307 |
0% |
0% |
|
308 |
0% |
0% |
|
309 |
0% |
0% |
|
310 |
0% |
0% |
|
311 |
0% |
0% |
|
312 |
0% |
0% |
|
313 |
0% |
0% |
|
314 |
0% |
0% |
|
315 |
0% |
0% |
|
316 |
0% |
0% |
|
317 |
0% |
0% |
|
318 |
0% |
0% |
|
319 |
0% |
0% |
|
320 |
0% |
0% |
|
321 |
0% |
0% |
|
322 |
0% |
0% |
|
323 |
0% |
0% |
|
324 |
0% |
0% |
|
325 |
0% |
0% |
|
326 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
0% |
|
328 |
0% |
0% |
|
329 |
0% |
0% |
|
330 |
0% |
0% |
|
331 |
0% |
0% |
|
332 |
0% |
0% |
|
333 |
0% |
0% |
|
334 |
0% |
0% |
|
335 |
0% |
0% |
|
336 |
0% |
0% |
|
337 |
0% |
0% |
|
338 |
0% |
0% |
|
339 |
0% |
0% |
|
340 |
0% |
0% |
|
341 |
0% |
0% |
|
342 |
0% |
0% |
|
343 |
0% |
0% |
|
344 |
0% |
0% |
|
345 |
0% |
0% |
|
346 |
0% |
0% |
|
347 |
0% |
0% |
|
348 |
0% |
0% |
|
349 |
0% |
0% |
|
350 |
0% |
0% |
|
351 |
0% |
0% |
|
352 |
0% |
0% |
|
353 |
0% |
0% |
|
354 |
0% |
0% |
|
355 |
0% |
0% |
|
356 |
0% |
0% |
|
357 |
0% |
0% |
|
358 |
0% |
0% |
|
359 |
0% |
0% |
|
360 |
0% |
0% |
|
361 |
0% |
0% |
|
362 |
0% |
0% |
|
363 |
0% |
0% |
|
364 |
0% |
0% |
|
365 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 18–22 August 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1077
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.96%