Opinion Poll by Savanta ComRes for Daily Mail, 11 September 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour Party | 32.1% | 42.3% | 40.9–43.6% | 40.6–44.0% | 40.2–44.3% | 39.6–45.0% |
| Conservative Party | 43.6% | 35.2% | 33.9–36.5% | 33.6–36.9% | 33.3–37.2% | 32.7–37.9% |
| Liberal Democrats | 11.5% | 10.1% | 9.3–10.9% | 9.1–11.2% | 8.9–11.4% | 8.5–11.8% |
| Green Party | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.0–2.8% | 1.9–3.0% | 1.8–3.1% | 1.6–3.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour Party | 202 | 313 | 297–324 | 295–326 | 292–327 | 285–331 |
| Conservative Party | 365 | 247 | 234–265 | 232–270 | 230–272 | 226–280 |
| Liberal Democrats | 11 | 13 | 8–19 | 8–20 | 7–21 | 6–23 |
| Green Party | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 202 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 203 | 0% | 100% | |
| 204 | 0% | 100% | |
| 205 | 0% | 100% | |
| 206 | 0% | 100% | |
| 207 | 0% | 100% | |
| 208 | 0% | 100% | |
| 209 | 0% | 100% | |
| 210 | 0% | 100% | |
| 211 | 0% | 100% | |
| 212 | 0% | 100% | |
| 213 | 0% | 100% | |
| 214 | 0% | 100% | |
| 215 | 0% | 100% | |
| 216 | 0% | 100% | |
| 217 | 0% | 100% | |
| 218 | 0% | 100% | |
| 219 | 0% | 100% | |
| 220 | 0% | 100% | |
| 221 | 0% | 100% | |
| 222 | 0% | 100% | |
| 223 | 0% | 100% | |
| 224 | 0% | 100% | |
| 225 | 0% | 100% | |
| 226 | 0% | 100% | |
| 227 | 0% | 100% | |
| 228 | 0% | 100% | |
| 229 | 0% | 100% | |
| 230 | 0% | 100% | |
| 231 | 0% | 100% | |
| 232 | 0% | 100% | |
| 233 | 0% | 100% | |
| 234 | 0% | 100% | |
| 235 | 0% | 100% | |
| 236 | 0% | 100% | |
| 237 | 0% | 100% | |
| 238 | 0% | 100% | |
| 239 | 0% | 100% | |
| 240 | 0% | 100% | |
| 241 | 0% | 100% | |
| 242 | 0% | 100% | |
| 243 | 0% | 100% | |
| 244 | 0% | 100% | |
| 245 | 0% | 100% | |
| 246 | 0% | 100% | |
| 247 | 0% | 100% | |
| 248 | 0% | 100% | |
| 249 | 0% | 100% | |
| 250 | 0% | 100% | |
| 251 | 0% | 100% | |
| 252 | 0% | 100% | |
| 253 | 0% | 100% | |
| 254 | 0% | 100% | |
| 255 | 0% | 100% | |
| 256 | 0% | 100% | |
| 257 | 0% | 100% | |
| 258 | 0% | 100% | |
| 259 | 0% | 100% | |
| 260 | 0% | 100% | |
| 261 | 0% | 100% | |
| 262 | 0% | 100% | |
| 263 | 0% | 100% | |
| 264 | 0% | 100% | |
| 265 | 0% | 100% | |
| 266 | 0% | 100% | |
| 267 | 0% | 100% | |
| 268 | 0% | 100% | |
| 269 | 0% | 100% | |
| 270 | 0% | 100% | |
| 271 | 0% | 100% | |
| 272 | 0% | 100% | |
| 273 | 0% | 100% | |
| 274 | 0% | 100% | |
| 275 | 0% | 100% | |
| 276 | 0% | 100% | |
| 277 | 0% | 100% | |
| 278 | 0% | 100% | |
| 279 | 0% | 100% | |
| 280 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 281 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 282 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 283 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 284 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 285 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 286 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 287 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 288 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 289 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 290 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 291 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 292 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 293 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 294 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 295 | 2% | 96% | |
| 296 | 3% | 94% | |
| 297 | 2% | 91% | |
| 298 | 0.7% | 89% | |
| 299 | 0.9% | 89% | |
| 300 | 0.6% | 88% | |
| 301 | 0.7% | 87% | |
| 302 | 5% | 87% | |
| 303 | 4% | 81% | |
| 304 | 5% | 78% | |
| 305 | 3% | 72% | |
| 306 | 4% | 69% | |
| 307 | 3% | 66% | |
| 308 | 3% | 63% | |
| 309 | 2% | 60% | |
| 310 | 2% | 58% | |
| 311 | 1.4% | 56% | |
| 312 | 2% | 54% | |
| 313 | 3% | 52% | Median |
| 314 | 5% | 49% | |
| 315 | 7% | 44% | |
| 316 | 4% | 37% | |
| 317 | 4% | 33% | |
| 318 | 3% | 29% | |
| 319 | 5% | 27% | |
| 320 | 3% | 21% | |
| 321 | 0.6% | 18% | |
| 322 | 3% | 18% | |
| 323 | 4% | 15% | |
| 324 | 2% | 11% | |
| 325 | 3% | 9% | |
| 326 | 2% | 5% | Majority |
| 327 | 2% | 4% | |
| 328 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 329 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 330 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 331 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 332 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 333 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 334 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 335 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 221 | 0% | 100% | |
| 222 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 223 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 224 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 225 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 226 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 227 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 228 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 229 | 1.0% | 98.7% | |
| 230 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 231 | 2% | 97% | |
| 232 | 2% | 95% | |
| 233 | 1.3% | 93% | |
| 234 | 2% | 92% | |
| 235 | 2% | 90% | |
| 236 | 2% | 88% | |
| 237 | 2% | 86% | |
| 238 | 4% | 83% | |
| 239 | 4% | 80% | |
| 240 | 2% | 76% | |
| 241 | 3% | 74% | |
| 242 | 6% | 71% | |
| 243 | 2% | 65% | |
| 244 | 2% | 63% | |
| 245 | 3% | 61% | |
| 246 | 4% | 57% | |
| 247 | 4% | 53% | Median |
| 248 | 2% | 49% | |
| 249 | 3% | 47% | |
| 250 | 3% | 43% | |
| 251 | 3% | 40% | |
| 252 | 2% | 37% | |
| 253 | 2% | 35% | |
| 254 | 2% | 33% | |
| 255 | 2% | 31% | |
| 256 | 2% | 29% | |
| 257 | 2% | 27% | |
| 258 | 2% | 24% | |
| 259 | 2% | 22% | |
| 260 | 2% | 20% | |
| 261 | 2% | 18% | |
| 262 | 2% | 16% | |
| 263 | 2% | 14% | |
| 264 | 2% | 12% | |
| 265 | 1.2% | 10% | |
| 266 | 1.2% | 9% | |
| 267 | 1.1% | 8% | |
| 268 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 269 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 270 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 271 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 272 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 273 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 274 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 275 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 276 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 277 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 278 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 279 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 280 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 281 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 282 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 283 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 284 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 285 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 286 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 287 | 0% | 0% | |
| 288 | 0% | 0% | |
| 289 | 0% | 0% | |
| 290 | 0% | 0% | |
| 291 | 0% | 0% | |
| 292 | 0% | 0% | |
| 293 | 0% | 0% | |
| 294 | 0% | 0% | |
| 295 | 0% | 0% | |
| 296 | 0% | 0% | |
| 297 | 0% | 0% | |
| 298 | 0% | 0% | |
| 299 | 0% | 0% | |
| 300 | 0% | 0% | |
| 301 | 0% | 0% | |
| 302 | 0% | 0% | |
| 303 | 0% | 0% | |
| 304 | 0% | 0% | |
| 305 | 0% | 0% | |
| 306 | 0% | 0% | |
| 307 | 0% | 0% | |
| 308 | 0% | 0% | |
| 309 | 0% | 0% | |
| 310 | 0% | 0% | |
| 311 | 0% | 0% | |
| 312 | 0% | 0% | |
| 313 | 0% | 0% | |
| 314 | 0% | 0% | |
| 315 | 0% | 0% | |
| 316 | 0% | 0% | |
| 317 | 0% | 0% | |
| 318 | 0% | 0% | |
| 319 | 0% | 0% | |
| 320 | 0% | 0% | |
| 321 | 0% | 0% | |
| 322 | 0% | 0% | |
| 323 | 0% | 0% | |
| 324 | 0% | 0% | |
| 325 | 0% | 0% | |
| 326 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 327 | 0% | 0% | |
| 328 | 0% | 0% | |
| 329 | 0% | 0% | |
| 330 | 0% | 0% | |
| 331 | 0% | 0% | |
| 332 | 0% | 0% | |
| 333 | 0% | 0% | |
| 334 | 0% | 0% | |
| 335 | 0% | 0% | |
| 336 | 0% | 0% | |
| 337 | 0% | 0% | |
| 338 | 0% | 0% | |
| 339 | 0% | 0% | |
| 340 | 0% | 0% | |
| 341 | 0% | 0% | |
| 342 | 0% | 0% | |
| 343 | 0% | 0% | |
| 344 | 0% | 0% | |
| 345 | 0% | 0% | |
| 346 | 0% | 0% | |
| 347 | 0% | 0% | |
| 348 | 0% | 0% | |
| 349 | 0% | 0% | |
| 350 | 0% | 0% | |
| 351 | 0% | 0% | |
| 352 | 0% | 0% | |
| 353 | 0% | 0% | |
| 354 | 0% | 0% | |
| 355 | 0% | 0% | |
| 356 | 0% | 0% | |
| 357 | 0% | 0% | |
| 358 | 0% | 0% | |
| 359 | 0% | 0% | |
| 360 | 0% | 0% | |
| 361 | 0% | 0% | |
| 362 | 0% | 0% | |
| 363 | 0% | 0% | |
| 364 | 0% | 0% | |
| 365 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Liberal Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 2% | 98% | |
| 8 | 20% | 96% | |
| 9 | 3% | 76% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 73% | |
| 11 | 6% | 72% | Last Result |
| 12 | 3% | 66% | |
| 13 | 20% | 62% | Median |
| 14 | 2% | 42% | |
| 15 | 2% | 41% | |
| 16 | 0.8% | 39% | |
| 17 | 16% | 38% | |
| 18 | 11% | 22% | |
| 19 | 2% | 10% | |
| 20 | 3% | 8% | |
| 21 | 3% | 5% | |
| 22 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Green Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats | 213 | 326 | 51% | 310–340 | 305–343 | 302–345 | 295–349 |
| Labour Party | 202 | 313 | 5% | 297–324 | 295–326 | 292–327 | 285–331 |
| Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats | 376 | 260 | 0% | 250–277 | 249–279 | 247–282 | 243–289 |
| Conservative Party | 365 | 247 | 0% | 234–265 | 232–270 | 230–272 | 226–280 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 213 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 214 | 0% | 100% | |
| 215 | 0% | 100% | |
| 216 | 0% | 100% | |
| 217 | 0% | 100% | |
| 218 | 0% | 100% | |
| 219 | 0% | 100% | |
| 220 | 0% | 100% | |
| 221 | 0% | 100% | |
| 222 | 0% | 100% | |
| 223 | 0% | 100% | |
| 224 | 0% | 100% | |
| 225 | 0% | 100% | |
| 226 | 0% | 100% | |
| 227 | 0% | 100% | |
| 228 | 0% | 100% | |
| 229 | 0% | 100% | |
| 230 | 0% | 100% | |
| 231 | 0% | 100% | |
| 232 | 0% | 100% | |
| 233 | 0% | 100% | |
| 234 | 0% | 100% | |
| 235 | 0% | 100% | |
| 236 | 0% | 100% | |
| 237 | 0% | 100% | |
| 238 | 0% | 100% | |
| 239 | 0% | 100% | |
| 240 | 0% | 100% | |
| 241 | 0% | 100% | |
| 242 | 0% | 100% | |
| 243 | 0% | 100% | |
| 244 | 0% | 100% | |
| 245 | 0% | 100% | |
| 246 | 0% | 100% | |
| 247 | 0% | 100% | |
| 248 | 0% | 100% | |
| 249 | 0% | 100% | |
| 250 | 0% | 100% | |
| 251 | 0% | 100% | |
| 252 | 0% | 100% | |
| 253 | 0% | 100% | |
| 254 | 0% | 100% | |
| 255 | 0% | 100% | |
| 256 | 0% | 100% | |
| 257 | 0% | 100% | |
| 258 | 0% | 100% | |
| 259 | 0% | 100% | |
| 260 | 0% | 100% | |
| 261 | 0% | 100% | |
| 262 | 0% | 100% | |
| 263 | 0% | 100% | |
| 264 | 0% | 100% | |
| 265 | 0% | 100% | |
| 266 | 0% | 100% | |
| 267 | 0% | 100% | |
| 268 | 0% | 100% | |
| 269 | 0% | 100% | |
| 270 | 0% | 100% | |
| 271 | 0% | 100% | |
| 272 | 0% | 100% | |
| 273 | 0% | 100% | |
| 274 | 0% | 100% | |
| 275 | 0% | 100% | |
| 276 | 0% | 100% | |
| 277 | 0% | 100% | |
| 278 | 0% | 100% | |
| 279 | 0% | 100% | |
| 280 | 0% | 100% | |
| 281 | 0% | 100% | |
| 282 | 0% | 100% | |
| 283 | 0% | 100% | |
| 284 | 0% | 100% | |
| 285 | 0% | 100% | |
| 286 | 0% | 100% | |
| 287 | 0% | 100% | |
| 288 | 0% | 100% | |
| 289 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 290 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 291 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 292 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 293 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 294 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 295 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 296 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 297 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 298 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 299 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 300 | 0.3% | 98.6% | |
| 301 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 302 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 303 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 304 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 305 | 1.2% | 95% | |
| 306 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 307 | 0.7% | 93% | |
| 308 | 0.9% | 93% | |
| 309 | 1.4% | 92% | |
| 310 | 2% | 90% | |
| 311 | 2% | 88% | |
| 312 | 2% | 86% | |
| 313 | 2% | 84% | |
| 314 | 2% | 82% | |
| 315 | 3% | 81% | |
| 316 | 3% | 78% | |
| 317 | 2% | 75% | |
| 318 | 2% | 73% | |
| 319 | 3% | 70% | |
| 320 | 2% | 68% | |
| 321 | 2% | 65% | |
| 322 | 2% | 63% | |
| 323 | 4% | 60% | |
| 324 | 4% | 57% | |
| 325 | 2% | 53% | |
| 326 | 3% | 51% | Median, Majority |
| 327 | 4% | 48% | |
| 328 | 4% | 44% | |
| 329 | 2% | 40% | |
| 330 | 3% | 38% | |
| 331 | 4% | 35% | |
| 332 | 4% | 31% | |
| 333 | 2% | 27% | |
| 334 | 3% | 25% | |
| 335 | 3% | 22% | |
| 336 | 3% | 19% | |
| 337 | 2% | 16% | |
| 338 | 2% | 14% | |
| 339 | 2% | 12% | |
| 340 | 2% | 11% | |
| 341 | 2% | 8% | |
| 342 | 1.3% | 7% | |
| 343 | 2% | 6% | |
| 344 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 345 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 346 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 347 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 348 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 349 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 350 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 351 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 352 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 353 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 354 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 355 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 202 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 203 | 0% | 100% | |
| 204 | 0% | 100% | |
| 205 | 0% | 100% | |
| 206 | 0% | 100% | |
| 207 | 0% | 100% | |
| 208 | 0% | 100% | |
| 209 | 0% | 100% | |
| 210 | 0% | 100% | |
| 211 | 0% | 100% | |
| 212 | 0% | 100% | |
| 213 | 0% | 100% | |
| 214 | 0% | 100% | |
| 215 | 0% | 100% | |
| 216 | 0% | 100% | |
| 217 | 0% | 100% | |
| 218 | 0% | 100% | |
| 219 | 0% | 100% | |
| 220 | 0% | 100% | |
| 221 | 0% | 100% | |
| 222 | 0% | 100% | |
| 223 | 0% | 100% | |
| 224 | 0% | 100% | |
| 225 | 0% | 100% | |
| 226 | 0% | 100% | |
| 227 | 0% | 100% | |
| 228 | 0% | 100% | |
| 229 | 0% | 100% | |
| 230 | 0% | 100% | |
| 231 | 0% | 100% | |
| 232 | 0% | 100% | |
| 233 | 0% | 100% | |
| 234 | 0% | 100% | |
| 235 | 0% | 100% | |
| 236 | 0% | 100% | |
| 237 | 0% | 100% | |
| 238 | 0% | 100% | |
| 239 | 0% | 100% | |
| 240 | 0% | 100% | |
| 241 | 0% | 100% | |
| 242 | 0% | 100% | |
| 243 | 0% | 100% | |
| 244 | 0% | 100% | |
| 245 | 0% | 100% | |
| 246 | 0% | 100% | |
| 247 | 0% | 100% | |
| 248 | 0% | 100% | |
| 249 | 0% | 100% | |
| 250 | 0% | 100% | |
| 251 | 0% | 100% | |
| 252 | 0% | 100% | |
| 253 | 0% | 100% | |
| 254 | 0% | 100% | |
| 255 | 0% | 100% | |
| 256 | 0% | 100% | |
| 257 | 0% | 100% | |
| 258 | 0% | 100% | |
| 259 | 0% | 100% | |
| 260 | 0% | 100% | |
| 261 | 0% | 100% | |
| 262 | 0% | 100% | |
| 263 | 0% | 100% | |
| 264 | 0% | 100% | |
| 265 | 0% | 100% | |
| 266 | 0% | 100% | |
| 267 | 0% | 100% | |
| 268 | 0% | 100% | |
| 269 | 0% | 100% | |
| 270 | 0% | 100% | |
| 271 | 0% | 100% | |
| 272 | 0% | 100% | |
| 273 | 0% | 100% | |
| 274 | 0% | 100% | |
| 275 | 0% | 100% | |
| 276 | 0% | 100% | |
| 277 | 0% | 100% | |
| 278 | 0% | 100% | |
| 279 | 0% | 100% | |
| 280 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 281 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 282 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 283 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 284 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 285 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 286 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 287 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 288 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 289 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 290 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 291 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 292 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 293 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 294 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 295 | 2% | 96% | |
| 296 | 3% | 94% | |
| 297 | 2% | 91% | |
| 298 | 0.7% | 89% | |
| 299 | 0.9% | 89% | |
| 300 | 0.6% | 88% | |
| 301 | 0.7% | 87% | |
| 302 | 5% | 87% | |
| 303 | 4% | 81% | |
| 304 | 5% | 78% | |
| 305 | 3% | 72% | |
| 306 | 4% | 69% | |
| 307 | 3% | 66% | |
| 308 | 3% | 63% | |
| 309 | 2% | 60% | |
| 310 | 2% | 58% | |
| 311 | 1.4% | 56% | |
| 312 | 2% | 54% | |
| 313 | 3% | 52% | Median |
| 314 | 5% | 49% | |
| 315 | 7% | 44% | |
| 316 | 4% | 37% | |
| 317 | 4% | 33% | |
| 318 | 3% | 29% | |
| 319 | 5% | 27% | |
| 320 | 3% | 21% | |
| 321 | 0.6% | 18% | |
| 322 | 3% | 18% | |
| 323 | 4% | 15% | |
| 324 | 2% | 11% | |
| 325 | 3% | 9% | |
| 326 | 2% | 5% | Majority |
| 327 | 2% | 4% | |
| 328 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 329 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 330 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 331 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 332 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 333 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 334 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 335 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 240 | 0% | 100% | |
| 241 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 242 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 243 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 244 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 245 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 246 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 247 | 2% | 98% | |
| 248 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 249 | 4% | 95% | |
| 250 | 3% | 91% | |
| 251 | 3% | 88% | |
| 252 | 3% | 85% | |
| 253 | 3% | 82% | |
| 254 | 1.0% | 79% | |
| 255 | 6% | 78% | |
| 256 | 2% | 72% | |
| 257 | 6% | 70% | |
| 258 | 4% | 64% | |
| 259 | 7% | 60% | |
| 260 | 6% | 53% | Median |
| 261 | 2% | 48% | |
| 262 | 2% | 46% | |
| 263 | 2% | 45% | |
| 264 | 3% | 43% | |
| 265 | 2% | 40% | |
| 266 | 3% | 38% | |
| 267 | 2% | 34% | |
| 268 | 3% | 32% | |
| 269 | 3% | 29% | |
| 270 | 4% | 25% | |
| 271 | 3% | 22% | |
| 272 | 3% | 18% | |
| 273 | 2% | 15% | |
| 274 | 0.6% | 13% | |
| 275 | 0.7% | 12% | |
| 276 | 0.9% | 11% | |
| 277 | 1.2% | 11% | |
| 278 | 2% | 9% | |
| 279 | 2% | 7% | |
| 280 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 281 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 282 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 283 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 284 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 285 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 286 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 287 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 288 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 289 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 290 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 291 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 292 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 293 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 294 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 295 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 296 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 297 | 0% | 0% | |
| 298 | 0% | 0% | |
| 299 | 0% | 0% | |
| 300 | 0% | 0% | |
| 301 | 0% | 0% | |
| 302 | 0% | 0% | |
| 303 | 0% | 0% | |
| 304 | 0% | 0% | |
| 305 | 0% | 0% | |
| 306 | 0% | 0% | |
| 307 | 0% | 0% | |
| 308 | 0% | 0% | |
| 309 | 0% | 0% | |
| 310 | 0% | 0% | |
| 311 | 0% | 0% | |
| 312 | 0% | 0% | |
| 313 | 0% | 0% | |
| 314 | 0% | 0% | |
| 315 | 0% | 0% | |
| 316 | 0% | 0% | |
| 317 | 0% | 0% | |
| 318 | 0% | 0% | |
| 319 | 0% | 0% | |
| 320 | 0% | 0% | |
| 321 | 0% | 0% | |
| 322 | 0% | 0% | |
| 323 | 0% | 0% | |
| 324 | 0% | 0% | |
| 325 | 0% | 0% | |
| 326 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 327 | 0% | 0% | |
| 328 | 0% | 0% | |
| 329 | 0% | 0% | |
| 330 | 0% | 0% | |
| 331 | 0% | 0% | |
| 332 | 0% | 0% | |
| 333 | 0% | 0% | |
| 334 | 0% | 0% | |
| 335 | 0% | 0% | |
| 336 | 0% | 0% | |
| 337 | 0% | 0% | |
| 338 | 0% | 0% | |
| 339 | 0% | 0% | |
| 340 | 0% | 0% | |
| 341 | 0% | 0% | |
| 342 | 0% | 0% | |
| 343 | 0% | 0% | |
| 344 | 0% | 0% | |
| 345 | 0% | 0% | |
| 346 | 0% | 0% | |
| 347 | 0% | 0% | |
| 348 | 0% | 0% | |
| 349 | 0% | 0% | |
| 350 | 0% | 0% | |
| 351 | 0% | 0% | |
| 352 | 0% | 0% | |
| 353 | 0% | 0% | |
| 354 | 0% | 0% | |
| 355 | 0% | 0% | |
| 356 | 0% | 0% | |
| 357 | 0% | 0% | |
| 358 | 0% | 0% | |
| 359 | 0% | 0% | |
| 360 | 0% | 0% | |
| 361 | 0% | 0% | |
| 362 | 0% | 0% | |
| 363 | 0% | 0% | |
| 364 | 0% | 0% | |
| 365 | 0% | 0% | |
| 366 | 0% | 0% | |
| 367 | 0% | 0% | |
| 368 | 0% | 0% | |
| 369 | 0% | 0% | |
| 370 | 0% | 0% | |
| 371 | 0% | 0% | |
| 372 | 0% | 0% | |
| 373 | 0% | 0% | |
| 374 | 0% | 0% | |
| 375 | 0% | 0% | |
| 376 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Conservative Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 221 | 0% | 100% | |
| 222 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 223 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 224 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 225 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 226 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 227 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 228 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 229 | 1.0% | 98.7% | |
| 230 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 231 | 2% | 97% | |
| 232 | 2% | 95% | |
| 233 | 1.3% | 93% | |
| 234 | 2% | 92% | |
| 235 | 2% | 90% | |
| 236 | 2% | 88% | |
| 237 | 2% | 86% | |
| 238 | 4% | 83% | |
| 239 | 4% | 80% | |
| 240 | 2% | 76% | |
| 241 | 3% | 74% | |
| 242 | 6% | 71% | |
| 243 | 2% | 65% | |
| 244 | 2% | 63% | |
| 245 | 3% | 61% | |
| 246 | 4% | 57% | |
| 247 | 4% | 53% | Median |
| 248 | 2% | 49% | |
| 249 | 3% | 47% | |
| 250 | 3% | 43% | |
| 251 | 3% | 40% | |
| 252 | 2% | 37% | |
| 253 | 2% | 35% | |
| 254 | 2% | 33% | |
| 255 | 2% | 31% | |
| 256 | 2% | 29% | |
| 257 | 2% | 27% | |
| 258 | 2% | 24% | |
| 259 | 2% | 22% | |
| 260 | 2% | 20% | |
| 261 | 2% | 18% | |
| 262 | 2% | 16% | |
| 263 | 2% | 14% | |
| 264 | 2% | 12% | |
| 265 | 1.2% | 10% | |
| 266 | 1.2% | 9% | |
| 267 | 1.1% | 8% | |
| 268 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 269 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 270 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 271 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 272 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 273 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 274 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 275 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 276 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 277 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 278 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 279 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 280 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 281 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 282 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 283 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 284 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 285 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 286 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 287 | 0% | 0% | |
| 288 | 0% | 0% | |
| 289 | 0% | 0% | |
| 290 | 0% | 0% | |
| 291 | 0% | 0% | |
| 292 | 0% | 0% | |
| 293 | 0% | 0% | |
| 294 | 0% | 0% | |
| 295 | 0% | 0% | |
| 296 | 0% | 0% | |
| 297 | 0% | 0% | |
| 298 | 0% | 0% | |
| 299 | 0% | 0% | |
| 300 | 0% | 0% | |
| 301 | 0% | 0% | |
| 302 | 0% | 0% | |
| 303 | 0% | 0% | |
| 304 | 0% | 0% | |
| 305 | 0% | 0% | |
| 306 | 0% | 0% | |
| 307 | 0% | 0% | |
| 308 | 0% | 0% | |
| 309 | 0% | 0% | |
| 310 | 0% | 0% | |
| 311 | 0% | 0% | |
| 312 | 0% | 0% | |
| 313 | 0% | 0% | |
| 314 | 0% | 0% | |
| 315 | 0% | 0% | |
| 316 | 0% | 0% | |
| 317 | 0% | 0% | |
| 318 | 0% | 0% | |
| 319 | 0% | 0% | |
| 320 | 0% | 0% | |
| 321 | 0% | 0% | |
| 322 | 0% | 0% | |
| 323 | 0% | 0% | |
| 324 | 0% | 0% | |
| 325 | 0% | 0% | |
| 326 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 327 | 0% | 0% | |
| 328 | 0% | 0% | |
| 329 | 0% | 0% | |
| 330 | 0% | 0% | |
| 331 | 0% | 0% | |
| 332 | 0% | 0% | |
| 333 | 0% | 0% | |
| 334 | 0% | 0% | |
| 335 | 0% | 0% | |
| 336 | 0% | 0% | |
| 337 | 0% | 0% | |
| 338 | 0% | 0% | |
| 339 | 0% | 0% | |
| 340 | 0% | 0% | |
| 341 | 0% | 0% | |
| 342 | 0% | 0% | |
| 343 | 0% | 0% | |
| 344 | 0% | 0% | |
| 345 | 0% | 0% | |
| 346 | 0% | 0% | |
| 347 | 0% | 0% | |
| 348 | 0% | 0% | |
| 349 | 0% | 0% | |
| 350 | 0% | 0% | |
| 351 | 0% | 0% | |
| 352 | 0% | 0% | |
| 353 | 0% | 0% | |
| 354 | 0% | 0% | |
| 355 | 0% | 0% | |
| 356 | 0% | 0% | |
| 357 | 0% | 0% | |
| 358 | 0% | 0% | |
| 359 | 0% | 0% | |
| 360 | 0% | 0% | |
| 361 | 0% | 0% | |
| 362 | 0% | 0% | |
| 363 | 0% | 0% | |
| 364 | 0% | 0% | |
| 365 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Savanta ComRes
- Commissioner(s): Daily Mail
- Fieldwork period: 11 September 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 2257
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.30%