Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 11–12 September 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Labour Party |
32.1% |
43.6% |
42.1–45.2% |
41.6–45.6% |
41.2–46.0% |
40.5–46.7% |
Conservative Party |
43.6% |
33.2% |
31.7–34.7% |
31.3–35.1% |
31.0–35.5% |
30.3–36.2% |
Liberal Democrats |
11.5% |
10.4% |
9.4–11.4% |
9.2–11.7% |
9.0–11.9% |
8.6–12.4% |
Green Party |
2.8% |
5.7% |
5.0–6.5% |
4.8–6.7% |
4.7–6.9% |
4.4–7.3% |
Scottish National Party |
3.9% |
4.2% |
3.6–4.9% |
3.4–5.1% |
3.3–5.2% |
3.0–5.6% |
Plaid Cymru |
0.5% |
1.0% |
0.8–1.4% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.6% |
0.5–1.8% |
Brexit Party |
2.0% |
0.9% |
0.7–1.3% |
0.6–1.4% |
0.5–1.5% |
0.4–1.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
202 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
203 |
0% |
100% |
|
204 |
0% |
100% |
|
205 |
0% |
100% |
|
206 |
0% |
100% |
|
207 |
0% |
100% |
|
208 |
0% |
100% |
|
209 |
0% |
100% |
|
210 |
0% |
100% |
|
211 |
0% |
100% |
|
212 |
0% |
100% |
|
213 |
0% |
100% |
|
214 |
0% |
100% |
|
215 |
0% |
100% |
|
216 |
0% |
100% |
|
217 |
0% |
100% |
|
218 |
0% |
100% |
|
219 |
0% |
100% |
|
220 |
0% |
100% |
|
221 |
0% |
100% |
|
222 |
0% |
100% |
|
223 |
0% |
100% |
|
224 |
0% |
100% |
|
225 |
0% |
100% |
|
226 |
0% |
100% |
|
227 |
0% |
100% |
|
228 |
0% |
100% |
|
229 |
0% |
100% |
|
230 |
0% |
100% |
|
231 |
0% |
100% |
|
232 |
0% |
100% |
|
233 |
0% |
100% |
|
234 |
0% |
100% |
|
235 |
0% |
100% |
|
236 |
0% |
100% |
|
237 |
0% |
100% |
|
238 |
0% |
100% |
|
239 |
0% |
100% |
|
240 |
0% |
100% |
|
241 |
0% |
100% |
|
242 |
0% |
100% |
|
243 |
0% |
100% |
|
244 |
0% |
100% |
|
245 |
0% |
100% |
|
246 |
0% |
100% |
|
247 |
0% |
100% |
|
248 |
0% |
100% |
|
249 |
0% |
100% |
|
250 |
0% |
100% |
|
251 |
0% |
100% |
|
252 |
0% |
100% |
|
253 |
0% |
100% |
|
254 |
0% |
100% |
|
255 |
0% |
100% |
|
256 |
0% |
100% |
|
257 |
0% |
100% |
|
258 |
0% |
100% |
|
259 |
0% |
100% |
|
260 |
0% |
100% |
|
261 |
0% |
100% |
|
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
100% |
|
264 |
0% |
100% |
|
265 |
0% |
100% |
|
266 |
0% |
100% |
|
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
100% |
|
269 |
0% |
100% |
|
270 |
0% |
100% |
|
271 |
0% |
100% |
|
272 |
0% |
100% |
|
273 |
0% |
100% |
|
274 |
0% |
100% |
|
275 |
0% |
100% |
|
276 |
0% |
100% |
|
277 |
0% |
100% |
|
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
100% |
|
280 |
0% |
100% |
|
281 |
0% |
100% |
|
282 |
0% |
100% |
|
283 |
0% |
100% |
|
284 |
0% |
100% |
|
285 |
0% |
100% |
|
286 |
0% |
100% |
|
287 |
0% |
100% |
|
288 |
0% |
100% |
|
289 |
0% |
100% |
|
290 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
291 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
292 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
293 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
294 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
295 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
296 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
297 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
298 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
299 |
0.3% |
99.4% |
|
300 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
|
301 |
0.3% |
98.8% |
|
302 |
0.3% |
98.5% |
|
303 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
304 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
305 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
306 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
307 |
0.2% |
96% |
|
308 |
0.6% |
96% |
|
309 |
0.9% |
95% |
|
310 |
2% |
94% |
|
311 |
0.9% |
93% |
|
312 |
1.0% |
92% |
|
313 |
1.2% |
91% |
|
314 |
4% |
89% |
|
315 |
1.3% |
86% |
|
316 |
2% |
85% |
|
317 |
3% |
83% |
|
318 |
3% |
80% |
|
319 |
4% |
76% |
|
320 |
4% |
72% |
|
321 |
5% |
68% |
|
322 |
9% |
63% |
|
323 |
3% |
54% |
|
324 |
6% |
51% |
Median |
325 |
3% |
45% |
|
326 |
4% |
42% |
Majority |
327 |
6% |
38% |
|
328 |
3% |
31% |
|
329 |
6% |
28% |
|
330 |
2% |
23% |
|
331 |
3% |
20% |
|
332 |
2% |
18% |
|
333 |
2% |
15% |
|
334 |
3% |
14% |
|
335 |
2% |
11% |
|
336 |
1.1% |
9% |
|
337 |
1.3% |
8% |
|
338 |
0.7% |
6% |
|
339 |
1.1% |
6% |
|
340 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
341 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
342 |
0.9% |
4% |
|
343 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
344 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
345 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
346 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
347 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
348 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
349 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
350 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
351 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
352 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
353 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
354 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
355 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
356 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
357 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
358 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
359 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
360 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
361 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
362 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
363 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
364 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
192 |
0% |
100% |
|
193 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
194 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
195 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
196 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
197 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
198 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
199 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
200 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
201 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
202 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
203 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
204 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
205 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
206 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
207 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
|
208 |
0.4% |
98.8% |
|
209 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
210 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
211 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
212 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
213 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
214 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
215 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
216 |
0.5% |
95% |
|
217 |
1.0% |
94% |
|
218 |
2% |
93% |
|
219 |
1.4% |
92% |
|
220 |
2% |
90% |
|
221 |
1.3% |
89% |
|
222 |
4% |
88% |
|
223 |
3% |
83% |
|
224 |
3% |
80% |
|
225 |
6% |
77% |
|
226 |
3% |
71% |
|
227 |
4% |
69% |
|
228 |
4% |
65% |
|
229 |
7% |
61% |
|
230 |
4% |
53% |
Median |
231 |
6% |
49% |
|
232 |
7% |
43% |
|
233 |
3% |
36% |
|
234 |
3% |
34% |
|
235 |
2% |
31% |
|
236 |
3% |
29% |
|
237 |
3% |
26% |
|
238 |
3% |
22% |
|
239 |
2% |
19% |
|
240 |
2% |
17% |
|
241 |
2% |
15% |
|
242 |
2% |
13% |
|
243 |
1.0% |
11% |
|
244 |
1.0% |
10% |
|
245 |
1.2% |
9% |
|
246 |
1.1% |
8% |
|
247 |
1.1% |
6% |
|
248 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
249 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
250 |
1.1% |
4% |
|
251 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
252 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
253 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
254 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
255 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
256 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
257 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
258 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
259 |
0.4% |
1.1% |
|
260 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
261 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
262 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
263 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
264 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
265 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
266 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
267 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
268 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
269 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
270 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
271 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
272 |
0% |
0% |
|
273 |
0% |
0% |
|
274 |
0% |
0% |
|
275 |
0% |
0% |
|
276 |
0% |
0% |
|
277 |
0% |
0% |
|
278 |
0% |
0% |
|
279 |
0% |
0% |
|
280 |
0% |
0% |
|
281 |
0% |
0% |
|
282 |
0% |
0% |
|
283 |
0% |
0% |
|
284 |
0% |
0% |
|
285 |
0% |
0% |
|
286 |
0% |
0% |
|
287 |
0% |
0% |
|
288 |
0% |
0% |
|
289 |
0% |
0% |
|
290 |
0% |
0% |
|
291 |
0% |
0% |
|
292 |
0% |
0% |
|
293 |
0% |
0% |
|
294 |
0% |
0% |
|
295 |
0% |
0% |
|
296 |
0% |
0% |
|
297 |
0% |
0% |
|
298 |
0% |
0% |
|
299 |
0% |
0% |
|
300 |
0% |
0% |
|
301 |
0% |
0% |
|
302 |
0% |
0% |
|
303 |
0% |
0% |
|
304 |
0% |
0% |
|
305 |
0% |
0% |
|
306 |
0% |
0% |
|
307 |
0% |
0% |
|
308 |
0% |
0% |
|
309 |
0% |
0% |
|
310 |
0% |
0% |
|
311 |
0% |
0% |
|
312 |
0% |
0% |
|
313 |
0% |
0% |
|
314 |
0% |
0% |
|
315 |
0% |
0% |
|
316 |
0% |
0% |
|
317 |
0% |
0% |
|
318 |
0% |
0% |
|
319 |
0% |
0% |
|
320 |
0% |
0% |
|
321 |
0% |
0% |
|
322 |
0% |
0% |
|
323 |
0% |
0% |
|
324 |
0% |
0% |
|
325 |
0% |
0% |
|
326 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
0% |
|
328 |
0% |
0% |
|
329 |
0% |
0% |
|
330 |
0% |
0% |
|
331 |
0% |
0% |
|
332 |
0% |
0% |
|
333 |
0% |
0% |
|
334 |
0% |
0% |
|
335 |
0% |
0% |
|
336 |
0% |
0% |
|
337 |
0% |
0% |
|
338 |
0% |
0% |
|
339 |
0% |
0% |
|
340 |
0% |
0% |
|
341 |
0% |
0% |
|
342 |
0% |
0% |
|
343 |
0% |
0% |
|
344 |
0% |
0% |
|
345 |
0% |
0% |
|
346 |
0% |
0% |
|
347 |
0% |
0% |
|
348 |
0% |
0% |
|
349 |
0% |
0% |
|
350 |
0% |
0% |
|
351 |
0% |
0% |
|
352 |
0% |
0% |
|
353 |
0% |
0% |
|
354 |
0% |
0% |
|
355 |
0% |
0% |
|
356 |
0% |
0% |
|
357 |
0% |
0% |
|
358 |
0% |
0% |
|
359 |
0% |
0% |
|
360 |
0% |
0% |
|
361 |
0% |
0% |
|
362 |
0% |
0% |
|
363 |
0% |
0% |
|
364 |
0% |
0% |
|
365 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Liberal Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
7 |
4% |
99.7% |
|
8 |
2% |
96% |
|
9 |
0.9% |
94% |
|
10 |
4% |
93% |
|
11 |
4% |
89% |
Last Result |
12 |
3% |
85% |
|
13 |
1.0% |
83% |
|
14 |
5% |
82% |
|
15 |
6% |
77% |
|
16 |
8% |
71% |
|
17 |
10% |
62% |
|
18 |
8% |
53% |
Median |
19 |
8% |
45% |
|
20 |
12% |
37% |
|
21 |
8% |
25% |
|
22 |
4% |
17% |
|
23 |
5% |
13% |
|
24 |
4% |
8% |
|
25 |
1.1% |
4% |
|
26 |
2% |
3% |
|
27 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
28 |
0.5% |
1.0% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
33 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Green Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
99.5% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Scottish National Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
32 |
0.3% |
99.5% |
|
33 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
34 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
|
35 |
0.5% |
98.9% |
|
36 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
37 |
1.2% |
98% |
|
38 |
2% |
97% |
|
39 |
0.9% |
95% |
|
40 |
2% |
94% |
|
41 |
2% |
93% |
|
42 |
1.3% |
91% |
|
43 |
2% |
90% |
|
44 |
1.0% |
88% |
|
45 |
2% |
87% |
|
46 |
2% |
85% |
|
47 |
3% |
84% |
|
48 |
5% |
81% |
Last Result |
49 |
1.4% |
76% |
|
50 |
3% |
75% |
|
51 |
5% |
72% |
|
52 |
8% |
67% |
|
53 |
10% |
59% |
Median |
54 |
8% |
48% |
|
55 |
8% |
41% |
|
56 |
12% |
32% |
|
57 |
11% |
21% |
|
58 |
9% |
9% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
Plaid Cymru
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
4 |
5% |
99.7% |
Last Result |
5 |
89% |
95% |
Median |
6 |
6% |
6% |
|
7 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Brexit Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
266 |
400 |
100% |
387–410 |
382–415 |
378–419 |
369–427 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
265 |
399 |
100% |
386–409 |
381–414 |
377–418 |
368–426 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party |
261 |
394 |
100% |
381–404 |
376–409 |
372–413 |
363–421 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
254 |
381 |
100% |
371–390 |
365–394 |
362–398 |
355–405 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party |
250 |
376 |
100% |
366–385 |
360–389 |
357–393 |
350–400 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru |
217 |
346 |
96% |
332–361 |
327–365 |
323–370 |
314–379 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats |
213 |
341 |
92% |
327–356 |
322–360 |
317–365 |
309–375 |
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru |
206 |
329 |
68% |
318–340 |
314–344 |
309–348 |
303–357 |
Labour Party |
202 |
324 |
42% |
313–335 |
309–339 |
304–343 |
298–352 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
417 |
288 |
0.2% |
273–302 |
269–307 |
264–312 |
254–320 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party |
413 |
283 |
0.1% |
268–297 |
264–302 |
259–307 |
250–315 |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats |
376 |
248 |
0% |
239–258 |
235–264 |
231–267 |
224–275 |
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru |
369 |
235 |
0% |
225–248 |
220–253 |
216–257 |
208–267 |
Conservative Party |
365 |
230 |
0% |
220–243 |
215–248 |
211–252 |
203–262 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
266 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
100% |
|
269 |
0% |
100% |
|
270 |
0% |
100% |
|
271 |
0% |
100% |
|
272 |
0% |
100% |
|
273 |
0% |
100% |
|
274 |
0% |
100% |
|
275 |
0% |
100% |
|
276 |
0% |
100% |
|
277 |
0% |
100% |
|
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
100% |
|
280 |
0% |
100% |
|
281 |
0% |
100% |
|
282 |
0% |
100% |
|
283 |
0% |
100% |
|
284 |
0% |
100% |
|
285 |
0% |
100% |
|
286 |
0% |
100% |
|
287 |
0% |
100% |
|
288 |
0% |
100% |
|
289 |
0% |
100% |
|
290 |
0% |
100% |
|
291 |
0% |
100% |
|
292 |
0% |
100% |
|
293 |
0% |
100% |
|
294 |
0% |
100% |
|
295 |
0% |
100% |
|
296 |
0% |
100% |
|
297 |
0% |
100% |
|
298 |
0% |
100% |
|
299 |
0% |
100% |
|
300 |
0% |
100% |
|
301 |
0% |
100% |
|
302 |
0% |
100% |
|
303 |
0% |
100% |
|
304 |
0% |
100% |
|
305 |
0% |
100% |
|
306 |
0% |
100% |
|
307 |
0% |
100% |
|
308 |
0% |
100% |
|
309 |
0% |
100% |
|
310 |
0% |
100% |
|
311 |
0% |
100% |
|
312 |
0% |
100% |
|
313 |
0% |
100% |
|
314 |
0% |
100% |
|
315 |
0% |
100% |
|
316 |
0% |
100% |
|
317 |
0% |
100% |
|
318 |
0% |
100% |
|
319 |
0% |
100% |
|
320 |
0% |
100% |
|
321 |
0% |
100% |
|
322 |
0% |
100% |
|
323 |
0% |
100% |
|
324 |
0% |
100% |
|
325 |
0% |
100% |
|
326 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
100% |
|
328 |
0% |
100% |
|
329 |
0% |
100% |
|
330 |
0% |
100% |
|
331 |
0% |
100% |
|
332 |
0% |
100% |
|
333 |
0% |
100% |
|
334 |
0% |
100% |
|
335 |
0% |
100% |
|
336 |
0% |
100% |
|
337 |
0% |
100% |
|
338 |
0% |
100% |
|
339 |
0% |
100% |
|
340 |
0% |
100% |
|
341 |
0% |
100% |
|
342 |
0% |
100% |
|
343 |
0% |
100% |
|
344 |
0% |
100% |
|
345 |
0% |
100% |
|
346 |
0% |
100% |
|
347 |
0% |
100% |
|
348 |
0% |
100% |
|
349 |
0% |
100% |
|
350 |
0% |
100% |
|
351 |
0% |
100% |
|
352 |
0% |
100% |
|
353 |
0% |
100% |
|
354 |
0% |
100% |
|
355 |
0% |
100% |
|
356 |
0% |
100% |
|
357 |
0% |
100% |
|
358 |
0% |
100% |
|
359 |
0% |
100% |
|
360 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
361 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
362 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
363 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
364 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
365 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
366 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
367 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
368 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
369 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
370 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
371 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
372 |
0.3% |
99.2% |
|
373 |
0.3% |
98.9% |
|
374 |
0.3% |
98.6% |
|
375 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
376 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
377 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
378 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
379 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
380 |
1.1% |
97% |
|
381 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
382 |
0.5% |
95% |
|
383 |
1.1% |
95% |
|
384 |
1.1% |
94% |
|
385 |
1.2% |
92% |
|
386 |
1.0% |
91% |
|
387 |
1.0% |
90% |
|
388 |
2% |
89% |
|
389 |
2% |
87% |
|
390 |
2% |
85% |
|
391 |
2% |
83% |
|
392 |
3% |
81% |
|
393 |
3% |
78% |
|
394 |
3% |
74% |
|
395 |
2% |
71% |
|
396 |
3% |
69% |
|
397 |
3% |
66% |
|
398 |
7% |
64% |
|
399 |
6% |
57% |
|
400 |
4% |
51% |
|
401 |
7% |
47% |
Median |
402 |
4% |
39% |
|
403 |
4% |
35% |
|
404 |
3% |
31% |
|
405 |
6% |
29% |
|
406 |
3% |
23% |
|
407 |
3% |
20% |
|
408 |
4% |
17% |
|
409 |
1.3% |
12% |
|
410 |
2% |
11% |
|
411 |
1.4% |
10% |
|
412 |
2% |
8% |
|
413 |
1.0% |
7% |
|
414 |
0.5% |
6% |
|
415 |
0.7% |
5% |
|
416 |
0.8% |
4% |
|
417 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
418 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
419 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
420 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
421 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
422 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
423 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
|
424 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
425 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
426 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
427 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
428 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
429 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
430 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
431 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
432 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
433 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
434 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
435 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
436 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
437 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
438 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
439 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
265 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
266 |
0% |
100% |
|
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
100% |
|
269 |
0% |
100% |
|
270 |
0% |
100% |
|
271 |
0% |
100% |
|
272 |
0% |
100% |
|
273 |
0% |
100% |
|
274 |
0% |
100% |
|
275 |
0% |
100% |
|
276 |
0% |
100% |
|
277 |
0% |
100% |
|
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
100% |
|
280 |
0% |
100% |
|
281 |
0% |
100% |
|
282 |
0% |
100% |
|
283 |
0% |
100% |
|
284 |
0% |
100% |
|
285 |
0% |
100% |
|
286 |
0% |
100% |
|
287 |
0% |
100% |
|
288 |
0% |
100% |
|
289 |
0% |
100% |
|
290 |
0% |
100% |
|
291 |
0% |
100% |
|
292 |
0% |
100% |
|
293 |
0% |
100% |
|
294 |
0% |
100% |
|
295 |
0% |
100% |
|
296 |
0% |
100% |
|
297 |
0% |
100% |
|
298 |
0% |
100% |
|
299 |
0% |
100% |
|
300 |
0% |
100% |
|
301 |
0% |
100% |
|
302 |
0% |
100% |
|
303 |
0% |
100% |
|
304 |
0% |
100% |
|
305 |
0% |
100% |
|
306 |
0% |
100% |
|
307 |
0% |
100% |
|
308 |
0% |
100% |
|
309 |
0% |
100% |
|
310 |
0% |
100% |
|
311 |
0% |
100% |
|
312 |
0% |
100% |
|
313 |
0% |
100% |
|
314 |
0% |
100% |
|
315 |
0% |
100% |
|
316 |
0% |
100% |
|
317 |
0% |
100% |
|
318 |
0% |
100% |
|
319 |
0% |
100% |
|
320 |
0% |
100% |
|
321 |
0% |
100% |
|
322 |
0% |
100% |
|
323 |
0% |
100% |
|
324 |
0% |
100% |
|
325 |
0% |
100% |
|
326 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
100% |
|
328 |
0% |
100% |
|
329 |
0% |
100% |
|
330 |
0% |
100% |
|
331 |
0% |
100% |
|
332 |
0% |
100% |
|
333 |
0% |
100% |
|
334 |
0% |
100% |
|
335 |
0% |
100% |
|
336 |
0% |
100% |
|
337 |
0% |
100% |
|
338 |
0% |
100% |
|
339 |
0% |
100% |
|
340 |
0% |
100% |
|
341 |
0% |
100% |
|
342 |
0% |
100% |
|
343 |
0% |
100% |
|
344 |
0% |
100% |
|
345 |
0% |
100% |
|
346 |
0% |
100% |
|
347 |
0% |
100% |
|
348 |
0% |
100% |
|
349 |
0% |
100% |
|
350 |
0% |
100% |
|
351 |
0% |
100% |
|
352 |
0% |
100% |
|
353 |
0% |
100% |
|
354 |
0% |
100% |
|
355 |
0% |
100% |
|
356 |
0% |
100% |
|
357 |
0% |
100% |
|
358 |
0% |
100% |
|
359 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
360 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
361 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
362 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
363 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
364 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
365 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
366 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
367 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
368 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
369 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
370 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
371 |
0.3% |
99.2% |
|
372 |
0.3% |
98.9% |
|
373 |
0.3% |
98.6% |
|
374 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
375 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
376 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
377 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
378 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
379 |
1.1% |
97% |
|
380 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
381 |
0.5% |
95% |
|
382 |
1.1% |
95% |
|
383 |
1.1% |
94% |
|
384 |
1.2% |
92% |
|
385 |
1.0% |
91% |
|
386 |
1.0% |
90% |
|
387 |
2% |
89% |
|
388 |
2% |
87% |
|
389 |
2% |
85% |
|
390 |
2% |
83% |
|
391 |
3% |
81% |
|
392 |
3% |
78% |
|
393 |
3% |
74% |
|
394 |
2% |
71% |
|
395 |
3% |
69% |
|
396 |
3% |
66% |
|
397 |
7% |
64% |
|
398 |
6% |
57% |
|
399 |
4% |
51% |
|
400 |
7% |
46% |
Median |
401 |
4% |
39% |
|
402 |
4% |
35% |
|
403 |
3% |
31% |
|
404 |
6% |
28% |
|
405 |
3% |
23% |
|
406 |
3% |
20% |
|
407 |
4% |
17% |
|
408 |
1.3% |
12% |
|
409 |
2% |
11% |
|
410 |
1.4% |
10% |
|
411 |
2% |
8% |
|
412 |
1.0% |
7% |
|
413 |
0.5% |
6% |
|
414 |
0.7% |
5% |
|
415 |
0.8% |
4% |
|
416 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
417 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
418 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
419 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
420 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
421 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
422 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
|
423 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
424 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
425 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
426 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
427 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
428 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
429 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
430 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
431 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
432 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
433 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
434 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
435 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
436 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
437 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
438 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
261 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
100% |
|
264 |
0% |
100% |
|
265 |
0% |
100% |
|
266 |
0% |
100% |
|
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
100% |
|
269 |
0% |
100% |
|
270 |
0% |
100% |
|
271 |
0% |
100% |
|
272 |
0% |
100% |
|
273 |
0% |
100% |
|
274 |
0% |
100% |
|
275 |
0% |
100% |
|
276 |
0% |
100% |
|
277 |
0% |
100% |
|
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
100% |
|
280 |
0% |
100% |
|
281 |
0% |
100% |
|
282 |
0% |
100% |
|
283 |
0% |
100% |
|
284 |
0% |
100% |
|
285 |
0% |
100% |
|
286 |
0% |
100% |
|
287 |
0% |
100% |
|
288 |
0% |
100% |
|
289 |
0% |
100% |
|
290 |
0% |
100% |
|
291 |
0% |
100% |
|
292 |
0% |
100% |
|
293 |
0% |
100% |
|
294 |
0% |
100% |
|
295 |
0% |
100% |
|
296 |
0% |
100% |
|
297 |
0% |
100% |
|
298 |
0% |
100% |
|
299 |
0% |
100% |
|
300 |
0% |
100% |
|
301 |
0% |
100% |
|
302 |
0% |
100% |
|
303 |
0% |
100% |
|
304 |
0% |
100% |
|
305 |
0% |
100% |
|
306 |
0% |
100% |
|
307 |
0% |
100% |
|
308 |
0% |
100% |
|
309 |
0% |
100% |
|
310 |
0% |
100% |
|
311 |
0% |
100% |
|
312 |
0% |
100% |
|
313 |
0% |
100% |
|
314 |
0% |
100% |
|
315 |
0% |
100% |
|
316 |
0% |
100% |
|
317 |
0% |
100% |
|
318 |
0% |
100% |
|
319 |
0% |
100% |
|
320 |
0% |
100% |
|
321 |
0% |
100% |
|
322 |
0% |
100% |
|
323 |
0% |
100% |
|
324 |
0% |
100% |
|
325 |
0% |
100% |
|
326 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
100% |
|
328 |
0% |
100% |
|
329 |
0% |
100% |
|
330 |
0% |
100% |
|
331 |
0% |
100% |
|
332 |
0% |
100% |
|
333 |
0% |
100% |
|
334 |
0% |
100% |
|
335 |
0% |
100% |
|
336 |
0% |
100% |
|
337 |
0% |
100% |
|
338 |
0% |
100% |
|
339 |
0% |
100% |
|
340 |
0% |
100% |
|
341 |
0% |
100% |
|
342 |
0% |
100% |
|
343 |
0% |
100% |
|
344 |
0% |
100% |
|
345 |
0% |
100% |
|
346 |
0% |
100% |
|
347 |
0% |
100% |
|
348 |
0% |
100% |
|
349 |
0% |
100% |
|
350 |
0% |
100% |
|
351 |
0% |
100% |
|
352 |
0% |
100% |
|
353 |
0% |
100% |
|
354 |
0% |
100% |
|
355 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
356 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
357 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
358 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
359 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
360 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
361 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
362 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
363 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
364 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
365 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
366 |
0.4% |
99.2% |
|
367 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
|
368 |
0.3% |
98.6% |
|
369 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
370 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
371 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
372 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
373 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
374 |
1.1% |
97% |
|
375 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
376 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
377 |
1.0% |
95% |
|
378 |
1.1% |
93% |
|
379 |
1.3% |
92% |
|
380 |
1.0% |
91% |
|
381 |
1.3% |
90% |
|
382 |
2% |
89% |
|
383 |
2% |
87% |
|
384 |
2% |
85% |
|
385 |
2% |
83% |
|
386 |
3% |
81% |
|
387 |
4% |
78% |
|
388 |
3% |
74% |
|
389 |
2% |
71% |
|
390 |
3% |
69% |
|
391 |
3% |
66% |
|
392 |
7% |
64% |
|
393 |
6% |
57% |
|
394 |
4% |
50% |
|
395 |
7% |
46% |
Median |
396 |
4% |
39% |
|
397 |
4% |
35% |
|
398 |
2% |
31% |
|
399 |
6% |
29% |
|
400 |
2% |
22% |
|
401 |
4% |
20% |
|
402 |
4% |
17% |
|
403 |
1.4% |
12% |
|
404 |
1.3% |
11% |
|
405 |
2% |
10% |
|
406 |
1.4% |
8% |
|
407 |
1.1% |
7% |
|
408 |
0.5% |
6% |
|
409 |
0.7% |
5% |
|
410 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
411 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
412 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
413 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
414 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
415 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
416 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
417 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
|
418 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
419 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
420 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
421 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
422 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
423 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
424 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
425 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
426 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
427 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
428 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
429 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
430 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
431 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
432 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
433 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
254 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
255 |
0% |
100% |
|
256 |
0% |
100% |
|
257 |
0% |
100% |
|
258 |
0% |
100% |
|
259 |
0% |
100% |
|
260 |
0% |
100% |
|
261 |
0% |
100% |
|
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
100% |
|
264 |
0% |
100% |
|
265 |
0% |
100% |
|
266 |
0% |
100% |
|
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
100% |
|
269 |
0% |
100% |
|
270 |
0% |
100% |
|
271 |
0% |
100% |
|
272 |
0% |
100% |
|
273 |
0% |
100% |
|
274 |
0% |
100% |
|
275 |
0% |
100% |
|
276 |
0% |
100% |
|
277 |
0% |
100% |
|
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
100% |
|
280 |
0% |
100% |
|
281 |
0% |
100% |
|
282 |
0% |
100% |
|
283 |
0% |
100% |
|
284 |
0% |
100% |
|
285 |
0% |
100% |
|
286 |
0% |
100% |
|
287 |
0% |
100% |
|
288 |
0% |
100% |
|
289 |
0% |
100% |
|
290 |
0% |
100% |
|
291 |
0% |
100% |
|
292 |
0% |
100% |
|
293 |
0% |
100% |
|
294 |
0% |
100% |
|
295 |
0% |
100% |
|
296 |
0% |
100% |
|
297 |
0% |
100% |
|
298 |
0% |
100% |
|
299 |
0% |
100% |
|
300 |
0% |
100% |
|
301 |
0% |
100% |
|
302 |
0% |
100% |
|
303 |
0% |
100% |
|
304 |
0% |
100% |
|
305 |
0% |
100% |
|
306 |
0% |
100% |
|
307 |
0% |
100% |
|
308 |
0% |
100% |
|
309 |
0% |
100% |
|
310 |
0% |
100% |
|
311 |
0% |
100% |
|
312 |
0% |
100% |
|
313 |
0% |
100% |
|
314 |
0% |
100% |
|
315 |
0% |
100% |
|
316 |
0% |
100% |
|
317 |
0% |
100% |
|
318 |
0% |
100% |
|
319 |
0% |
100% |
|
320 |
0% |
100% |
|
321 |
0% |
100% |
|
322 |
0% |
100% |
|
323 |
0% |
100% |
|
324 |
0% |
100% |
|
325 |
0% |
100% |
|
326 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
100% |
|
328 |
0% |
100% |
|
329 |
0% |
100% |
|
330 |
0% |
100% |
|
331 |
0% |
100% |
|
332 |
0% |
100% |
|
333 |
0% |
100% |
|
334 |
0% |
100% |
|
335 |
0% |
100% |
|
336 |
0% |
100% |
|
337 |
0% |
100% |
|
338 |
0% |
100% |
|
339 |
0% |
100% |
|
340 |
0% |
100% |
|
341 |
0% |
100% |
|
342 |
0% |
100% |
|
343 |
0% |
100% |
|
344 |
0% |
100% |
|
345 |
0% |
100% |
|
346 |
0% |
100% |
|
347 |
0% |
100% |
|
348 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
349 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
350 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
351 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
352 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
353 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
354 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
355 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
356 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
357 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
358 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
359 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
360 |
0.3% |
98.8% |
|
361 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
362 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
363 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
364 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
365 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
366 |
0.5% |
95% |
|
367 |
0.9% |
94% |
|
368 |
0.8% |
94% |
|
369 |
0.7% |
93% |
|
370 |
1.1% |
92% |
|
371 |
2% |
91% |
|
372 |
3% |
89% |
|
373 |
2% |
86% |
|
374 |
4% |
84% |
|
375 |
3% |
80% |
|
376 |
4% |
77% |
|
377 |
3% |
73% |
|
378 |
2% |
70% |
|
379 |
5% |
68% |
|
380 |
7% |
63% |
|
381 |
8% |
55% |
|
382 |
7% |
47% |
Median |
383 |
6% |
40% |
|
384 |
5% |
34% |
|
385 |
3% |
29% |
|
386 |
4% |
25% |
|
387 |
5% |
22% |
|
388 |
5% |
17% |
|
389 |
2% |
12% |
|
390 |
2% |
10% |
|
391 |
1.2% |
8% |
|
392 |
0.6% |
7% |
|
393 |
1.2% |
7% |
|
394 |
0.9% |
5% |
|
395 |
0.8% |
4% |
|
396 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
397 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
398 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
399 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
400 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
401 |
0.5% |
1.5% |
|
402 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
403 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
404 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
405 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
406 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
407 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
408 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
409 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
410 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
411 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
412 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
413 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
414 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
415 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
416 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
250 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
251 |
0% |
100% |
|
252 |
0% |
100% |
|
253 |
0% |
100% |
|
254 |
0% |
100% |
|
255 |
0% |
100% |
|
256 |
0% |
100% |
|
257 |
0% |
100% |
|
258 |
0% |
100% |
|
259 |
0% |
100% |
|
260 |
0% |
100% |
|
261 |
0% |
100% |
|
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
100% |
|
264 |
0% |
100% |
|
265 |
0% |
100% |
|
266 |
0% |
100% |
|
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
100% |
|
269 |
0% |
100% |
|
270 |
0% |
100% |
|
271 |
0% |
100% |
|
272 |
0% |
100% |
|
273 |
0% |
100% |
|
274 |
0% |
100% |
|
275 |
0% |
100% |
|
276 |
0% |
100% |
|
277 |
0% |
100% |
|
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
100% |
|
280 |
0% |
100% |
|
281 |
0% |
100% |
|
282 |
0% |
100% |
|
283 |
0% |
100% |
|
284 |
0% |
100% |
|
285 |
0% |
100% |
|
286 |
0% |
100% |
|
287 |
0% |
100% |
|
288 |
0% |
100% |
|
289 |
0% |
100% |
|
290 |
0% |
100% |
|
291 |
0% |
100% |
|
292 |
0% |
100% |
|
293 |
0% |
100% |
|
294 |
0% |
100% |
|
295 |
0% |
100% |
|
296 |
0% |
100% |
|
297 |
0% |
100% |
|
298 |
0% |
100% |
|
299 |
0% |
100% |
|
300 |
0% |
100% |
|
301 |
0% |
100% |
|
302 |
0% |
100% |
|
303 |
0% |
100% |
|
304 |
0% |
100% |
|
305 |
0% |
100% |
|
306 |
0% |
100% |
|
307 |
0% |
100% |
|
308 |
0% |
100% |
|
309 |
0% |
100% |
|
310 |
0% |
100% |
|
311 |
0% |
100% |
|
312 |
0% |
100% |
|
313 |
0% |
100% |
|
314 |
0% |
100% |
|
315 |
0% |
100% |
|
316 |
0% |
100% |
|
317 |
0% |
100% |
|
318 |
0% |
100% |
|
319 |
0% |
100% |
|
320 |
0% |
100% |
|
321 |
0% |
100% |
|
322 |
0% |
100% |
|
323 |
0% |
100% |
|
324 |
0% |
100% |
|
325 |
0% |
100% |
|
326 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
100% |
|
328 |
0% |
100% |
|
329 |
0% |
100% |
|
330 |
0% |
100% |
|
331 |
0% |
100% |
|
332 |
0% |
100% |
|
333 |
0% |
100% |
|
334 |
0% |
100% |
|
335 |
0% |
100% |
|
336 |
0% |
100% |
|
337 |
0% |
100% |
|
338 |
0% |
100% |
|
339 |
0% |
100% |
|
340 |
0% |
100% |
|
341 |
0% |
100% |
|
342 |
0% |
100% |
|
343 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
344 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
345 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
346 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
347 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
348 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
349 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
350 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
351 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
352 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
353 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
354 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
355 |
0.3% |
98.7% |
|
356 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
357 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
358 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
359 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
360 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
361 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
362 |
0.9% |
94% |
|
363 |
0.7% |
94% |
|
364 |
0.9% |
93% |
|
365 |
0.9% |
92% |
|
366 |
2% |
91% |
|
367 |
3% |
89% |
|
368 |
2% |
86% |
|
369 |
3% |
84% |
|
370 |
3% |
80% |
|
371 |
4% |
77% |
|
372 |
4% |
73% |
|
373 |
2% |
70% |
|
374 |
6% |
68% |
|
375 |
7% |
62% |
|
376 |
8% |
55% |
|
377 |
7% |
47% |
Median |
378 |
6% |
40% |
|
379 |
5% |
34% |
|
380 |
4% |
29% |
|
381 |
4% |
25% |
|
382 |
4% |
22% |
|
383 |
5% |
17% |
|
384 |
2% |
12% |
|
385 |
2% |
10% |
|
386 |
1.2% |
8% |
|
387 |
0.6% |
7% |
|
388 |
1.2% |
7% |
|
389 |
0.9% |
5% |
|
390 |
0.8% |
4% |
|
391 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
392 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
393 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
394 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
395 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
396 |
0.4% |
1.5% |
|
397 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
398 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
399 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
400 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
401 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
402 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
403 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
404 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
405 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
406 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
407 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
408 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
409 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
410 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
411 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
217 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
218 |
0% |
100% |
|
219 |
0% |
100% |
|
220 |
0% |
100% |
|
221 |
0% |
100% |
|
222 |
0% |
100% |
|
223 |
0% |
100% |
|
224 |
0% |
100% |
|
225 |
0% |
100% |
|
226 |
0% |
100% |
|
227 |
0% |
100% |
|
228 |
0% |
100% |
|
229 |
0% |
100% |
|
230 |
0% |
100% |
|
231 |
0% |
100% |
|
232 |
0% |
100% |
|
233 |
0% |
100% |
|
234 |
0% |
100% |
|
235 |
0% |
100% |
|
236 |
0% |
100% |
|
237 |
0% |
100% |
|
238 |
0% |
100% |
|
239 |
0% |
100% |
|
240 |
0% |
100% |
|
241 |
0% |
100% |
|
242 |
0% |
100% |
|
243 |
0% |
100% |
|
244 |
0% |
100% |
|
245 |
0% |
100% |
|
246 |
0% |
100% |
|
247 |
0% |
100% |
|
248 |
0% |
100% |
|
249 |
0% |
100% |
|
250 |
0% |
100% |
|
251 |
0% |
100% |
|
252 |
0% |
100% |
|
253 |
0% |
100% |
|
254 |
0% |
100% |
|
255 |
0% |
100% |
|
256 |
0% |
100% |
|
257 |
0% |
100% |
|
258 |
0% |
100% |
|
259 |
0% |
100% |
|
260 |
0% |
100% |
|
261 |
0% |
100% |
|
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
100% |
|
264 |
0% |
100% |
|
265 |
0% |
100% |
|
266 |
0% |
100% |
|
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
100% |
|
269 |
0% |
100% |
|
270 |
0% |
100% |
|
271 |
0% |
100% |
|
272 |
0% |
100% |
|
273 |
0% |
100% |
|
274 |
0% |
100% |
|
275 |
0% |
100% |
|
276 |
0% |
100% |
|
277 |
0% |
100% |
|
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
100% |
|
280 |
0% |
100% |
|
281 |
0% |
100% |
|
282 |
0% |
100% |
|
283 |
0% |
100% |
|
284 |
0% |
100% |
|
285 |
0% |
100% |
|
286 |
0% |
100% |
|
287 |
0% |
100% |
|
288 |
0% |
100% |
|
289 |
0% |
100% |
|
290 |
0% |
100% |
|
291 |
0% |
100% |
|
292 |
0% |
100% |
|
293 |
0% |
100% |
|
294 |
0% |
100% |
|
295 |
0% |
100% |
|
296 |
0% |
100% |
|
297 |
0% |
100% |
|
298 |
0% |
100% |
|
299 |
0% |
100% |
|
300 |
0% |
100% |
|
301 |
0% |
100% |
|
302 |
0% |
100% |
|
303 |
0% |
100% |
|
304 |
0% |
100% |
|
305 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
306 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
307 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
308 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
309 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
310 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
311 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
312 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
313 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
314 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
315 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
316 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
317 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
318 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
|
319 |
0.3% |
98.6% |
|
320 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
321 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
322 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
323 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
324 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
325 |
0.9% |
97% |
|
326 |
0.5% |
96% |
Majority |
327 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
328 |
0.9% |
95% |
|
329 |
1.1% |
94% |
|
330 |
1.2% |
93% |
|
331 |
1.0% |
92% |
|
332 |
2% |
91% |
|
333 |
2% |
89% |
|
334 |
1.1% |
87% |
|
335 |
2% |
86% |
|
336 |
1.4% |
84% |
|
337 |
1.4% |
83% |
|
338 |
4% |
81% |
|
339 |
4% |
78% |
|
340 |
3% |
74% |
|
341 |
4% |
72% |
|
342 |
3% |
68% |
|
343 |
3% |
65% |
|
344 |
3% |
62% |
|
345 |
5% |
59% |
|
346 |
4% |
53% |
|
347 |
6% |
49% |
Median |
348 |
2% |
43% |
|
349 |
3% |
41% |
|
350 |
4% |
38% |
|
351 |
3% |
34% |
|
352 |
3% |
30% |
|
353 |
2% |
27% |
|
354 |
3% |
25% |
|
355 |
2% |
22% |
|
356 |
3% |
20% |
|
357 |
2% |
17% |
|
358 |
1.5% |
15% |
|
359 |
2% |
14% |
|
360 |
1.4% |
12% |
|
361 |
2% |
10% |
|
362 |
1.4% |
8% |
|
363 |
0.6% |
7% |
|
364 |
1.1% |
6% |
|
365 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
366 |
0.7% |
5% |
|
367 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
368 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
369 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
370 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
371 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
372 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
373 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
374 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
375 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
376 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
377 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
378 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
379 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
380 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
381 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
382 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
383 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
384 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
385 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
386 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
387 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
388 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
389 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
390 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
391 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
392 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
393 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
213 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
214 |
0% |
100% |
|
215 |
0% |
100% |
|
216 |
0% |
100% |
|
217 |
0% |
100% |
|
218 |
0% |
100% |
|
219 |
0% |
100% |
|
220 |
0% |
100% |
|
221 |
0% |
100% |
|
222 |
0% |
100% |
|
223 |
0% |
100% |
|
224 |
0% |
100% |
|
225 |
0% |
100% |
|
226 |
0% |
100% |
|
227 |
0% |
100% |
|
228 |
0% |
100% |
|
229 |
0% |
100% |
|
230 |
0% |
100% |
|
231 |
0% |
100% |
|
232 |
0% |
100% |
|
233 |
0% |
100% |
|
234 |
0% |
100% |
|
235 |
0% |
100% |
|
236 |
0% |
100% |
|
237 |
0% |
100% |
|
238 |
0% |
100% |
|
239 |
0% |
100% |
|
240 |
0% |
100% |
|
241 |
0% |
100% |
|
242 |
0% |
100% |
|
243 |
0% |
100% |
|
244 |
0% |
100% |
|
245 |
0% |
100% |
|
246 |
0% |
100% |
|
247 |
0% |
100% |
|
248 |
0% |
100% |
|
249 |
0% |
100% |
|
250 |
0% |
100% |
|
251 |
0% |
100% |
|
252 |
0% |
100% |
|
253 |
0% |
100% |
|
254 |
0% |
100% |
|
255 |
0% |
100% |
|
256 |
0% |
100% |
|
257 |
0% |
100% |
|
258 |
0% |
100% |
|
259 |
0% |
100% |
|
260 |
0% |
100% |
|
261 |
0% |
100% |
|
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
100% |
|
264 |
0% |
100% |
|
265 |
0% |
100% |
|
266 |
0% |
100% |
|
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
100% |
|
269 |
0% |
100% |
|
270 |
0% |
100% |
|
271 |
0% |
100% |
|
272 |
0% |
100% |
|
273 |
0% |
100% |
|
274 |
0% |
100% |
|
275 |
0% |
100% |
|
276 |
0% |
100% |
|
277 |
0% |
100% |
|
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
100% |
|
280 |
0% |
100% |
|
281 |
0% |
100% |
|
282 |
0% |
100% |
|
283 |
0% |
100% |
|
284 |
0% |
100% |
|
285 |
0% |
100% |
|
286 |
0% |
100% |
|
287 |
0% |
100% |
|
288 |
0% |
100% |
|
289 |
0% |
100% |
|
290 |
0% |
100% |
|
291 |
0% |
100% |
|
292 |
0% |
100% |
|
293 |
0% |
100% |
|
294 |
0% |
100% |
|
295 |
0% |
100% |
|
296 |
0% |
100% |
|
297 |
0% |
100% |
|
298 |
0% |
100% |
|
299 |
0% |
100% |
|
300 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
301 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
302 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
303 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
304 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
305 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
306 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
307 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
308 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
309 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
310 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
311 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
312 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
313 |
0.3% |
98.9% |
|
314 |
0.3% |
98.6% |
|
315 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
316 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
317 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
318 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
319 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
320 |
0.9% |
97% |
|
321 |
0.6% |
96% |
|
322 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
323 |
0.8% |
95% |
|
324 |
1.1% |
94% |
|
325 |
1.2% |
93% |
|
326 |
1.1% |
92% |
Majority |
327 |
2% |
90% |
|
328 |
1.3% |
89% |
|
329 |
1.1% |
87% |
|
330 |
2% |
86% |
|
331 |
2% |
84% |
|
332 |
1.5% |
83% |
|
333 |
4% |
81% |
|
334 |
4% |
78% |
|
335 |
2% |
74% |
|
336 |
4% |
72% |
|
337 |
3% |
68% |
|
338 |
3% |
65% |
|
339 |
3% |
61% |
|
340 |
5% |
59% |
|
341 |
4% |
53% |
|
342 |
6% |
49% |
Median |
343 |
2% |
43% |
|
344 |
3% |
41% |
|
345 |
4% |
38% |
|
346 |
3% |
34% |
|
347 |
3% |
30% |
|
348 |
2% |
27% |
|
349 |
2% |
25% |
|
350 |
2% |
22% |
|
351 |
3% |
20% |
|
352 |
2% |
17% |
|
353 |
1.4% |
15% |
|
354 |
2% |
14% |
|
355 |
1.4% |
12% |
|
356 |
2% |
10% |
|
357 |
1.5% |
8% |
|
358 |
0.6% |
7% |
|
359 |
1.1% |
6% |
|
360 |
0.7% |
5% |
|
361 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
362 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
363 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
364 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
365 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
366 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
367 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
368 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
369 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
370 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
371 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
372 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
373 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
374 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
375 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
376 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
377 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
378 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
379 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
380 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
381 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
382 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
383 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
384 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
385 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
386 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
387 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
388 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
206 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
207 |
0% |
100% |
|
208 |
0% |
100% |
|
209 |
0% |
100% |
|
210 |
0% |
100% |
|
211 |
0% |
100% |
|
212 |
0% |
100% |
|
213 |
0% |
100% |
|
214 |
0% |
100% |
|
215 |
0% |
100% |
|
216 |
0% |
100% |
|
217 |
0% |
100% |
|
218 |
0% |
100% |
|
219 |
0% |
100% |
|
220 |
0% |
100% |
|
221 |
0% |
100% |
|
222 |
0% |
100% |
|
223 |
0% |
100% |
|
224 |
0% |
100% |
|
225 |
0% |
100% |
|
226 |
0% |
100% |
|
227 |
0% |
100% |
|
228 |
0% |
100% |
|
229 |
0% |
100% |
|
230 |
0% |
100% |
|
231 |
0% |
100% |
|
232 |
0% |
100% |
|
233 |
0% |
100% |
|
234 |
0% |
100% |
|
235 |
0% |
100% |
|
236 |
0% |
100% |
|
237 |
0% |
100% |
|
238 |
0% |
100% |
|
239 |
0% |
100% |
|
240 |
0% |
100% |
|
241 |
0% |
100% |
|
242 |
0% |
100% |
|
243 |
0% |
100% |
|
244 |
0% |
100% |
|
245 |
0% |
100% |
|
246 |
0% |
100% |
|
247 |
0% |
100% |
|
248 |
0% |
100% |
|
249 |
0% |
100% |
|
250 |
0% |
100% |
|
251 |
0% |
100% |
|
252 |
0% |
100% |
|
253 |
0% |
100% |
|
254 |
0% |
100% |
|
255 |
0% |
100% |
|
256 |
0% |
100% |
|
257 |
0% |
100% |
|
258 |
0% |
100% |
|
259 |
0% |
100% |
|
260 |
0% |
100% |
|
261 |
0% |
100% |
|
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
100% |
|
264 |
0% |
100% |
|
265 |
0% |
100% |
|
266 |
0% |
100% |
|
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
100% |
|
269 |
0% |
100% |
|
270 |
0% |
100% |
|
271 |
0% |
100% |
|
272 |
0% |
100% |
|
273 |
0% |
100% |
|
274 |
0% |
100% |
|
275 |
0% |
100% |
|
276 |
0% |
100% |
|
277 |
0% |
100% |
|
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
100% |
|
280 |
0% |
100% |
|
281 |
0% |
100% |
|
282 |
0% |
100% |
|
283 |
0% |
100% |
|
284 |
0% |
100% |
|
285 |
0% |
100% |
|
286 |
0% |
100% |
|
287 |
0% |
100% |
|
288 |
0% |
100% |
|
289 |
0% |
100% |
|
290 |
0% |
100% |
|
291 |
0% |
100% |
|
292 |
0% |
100% |
|
293 |
0% |
100% |
|
294 |
0% |
100% |
|
295 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
296 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
297 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
298 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
299 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
300 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
301 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
302 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
303 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
304 |
0.3% |
99.5% |
|
305 |
0.3% |
99.2% |
|
306 |
0.3% |
98.8% |
|
307 |
0.3% |
98.6% |
|
308 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
309 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
310 |
0.8% |
97% |
|
311 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
312 |
0.2% |
96% |
|
313 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
314 |
0.9% |
95% |
|
315 |
2% |
94% |
|
316 |
0.9% |
93% |
|
317 |
1.0% |
92% |
|
318 |
1.1% |
91% |
|
319 |
4% |
90% |
|
320 |
0.7% |
86% |
|
321 |
2% |
85% |
|
322 |
3% |
83% |
|
323 |
3% |
80% |
|
324 |
4% |
77% |
|
325 |
5% |
73% |
|
326 |
4% |
68% |
Majority |
327 |
9% |
63% |
|
328 |
4% |
54% |
|
329 |
6% |
51% |
Median |
330 |
3% |
45% |
|
331 |
5% |
42% |
|
332 |
7% |
38% |
|
333 |
3% |
31% |
|
334 |
5% |
28% |
|
335 |
2% |
23% |
|
336 |
3% |
20% |
|
337 |
2% |
18% |
|
338 |
2% |
15% |
|
339 |
3% |
14% |
|
340 |
2% |
11% |
|
341 |
1.2% |
9% |
|
342 |
1.3% |
8% |
|
343 |
0.8% |
6% |
|
344 |
1.0% |
6% |
|
345 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
346 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
347 |
0.9% |
4% |
|
348 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
349 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
350 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
351 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
352 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
|
353 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
354 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
355 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
356 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
357 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
358 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
359 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
360 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
361 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
362 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
363 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
364 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
365 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
366 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
367 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
368 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
369 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
202 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
203 |
0% |
100% |
|
204 |
0% |
100% |
|
205 |
0% |
100% |
|
206 |
0% |
100% |
|
207 |
0% |
100% |
|
208 |
0% |
100% |
|
209 |
0% |
100% |
|
210 |
0% |
100% |
|
211 |
0% |
100% |
|
212 |
0% |
100% |
|
213 |
0% |
100% |
|
214 |
0% |
100% |
|
215 |
0% |
100% |
|
216 |
0% |
100% |
|
217 |
0% |
100% |
|
218 |
0% |
100% |
|
219 |
0% |
100% |
|
220 |
0% |
100% |
|
221 |
0% |
100% |
|
222 |
0% |
100% |
|
223 |
0% |
100% |
|
224 |
0% |
100% |
|
225 |
0% |
100% |
|
226 |
0% |
100% |
|
227 |
0% |
100% |
|
228 |
0% |
100% |
|
229 |
0% |
100% |
|
230 |
0% |
100% |
|
231 |
0% |
100% |
|
232 |
0% |
100% |
|
233 |
0% |
100% |
|
234 |
0% |
100% |
|
235 |
0% |
100% |
|
236 |
0% |
100% |
|
237 |
0% |
100% |
|
238 |
0% |
100% |
|
239 |
0% |
100% |
|
240 |
0% |
100% |
|
241 |
0% |
100% |
|
242 |
0% |
100% |
|
243 |
0% |
100% |
|
244 |
0% |
100% |
|
245 |
0% |
100% |
|
246 |
0% |
100% |
|
247 |
0% |
100% |
|
248 |
0% |
100% |
|
249 |
0% |
100% |
|
250 |
0% |
100% |
|
251 |
0% |
100% |
|
252 |
0% |
100% |
|
253 |
0% |
100% |
|
254 |
0% |
100% |
|
255 |
0% |
100% |
|
256 |
0% |
100% |
|
257 |
0% |
100% |
|
258 |
0% |
100% |
|
259 |
0% |
100% |
|
260 |
0% |
100% |
|
261 |
0% |
100% |
|
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
100% |
|
264 |
0% |
100% |
|
265 |
0% |
100% |
|
266 |
0% |
100% |
|
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
100% |
|
269 |
0% |
100% |
|
270 |
0% |
100% |
|
271 |
0% |
100% |
|
272 |
0% |
100% |
|
273 |
0% |
100% |
|
274 |
0% |
100% |
|
275 |
0% |
100% |
|
276 |
0% |
100% |
|
277 |
0% |
100% |
|
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
100% |
|
280 |
0% |
100% |
|
281 |
0% |
100% |
|
282 |
0% |
100% |
|
283 |
0% |
100% |
|
284 |
0% |
100% |
|
285 |
0% |
100% |
|
286 |
0% |
100% |
|
287 |
0% |
100% |
|
288 |
0% |
100% |
|
289 |
0% |
100% |
|
290 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
291 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
292 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
293 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
294 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
295 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
296 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
297 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
298 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
299 |
0.3% |
99.4% |
|
300 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
|
301 |
0.3% |
98.8% |
|
302 |
0.3% |
98.5% |
|
303 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
304 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
305 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
306 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
307 |
0.2% |
96% |
|
308 |
0.6% |
96% |
|
309 |
0.9% |
95% |
|
310 |
2% |
94% |
|
311 |
0.9% |
93% |
|
312 |
1.0% |
92% |
|
313 |
1.2% |
91% |
|
314 |
4% |
89% |
|
315 |
1.3% |
86% |
|
316 |
2% |
85% |
|
317 |
3% |
83% |
|
318 |
3% |
80% |
|
319 |
4% |
76% |
|
320 |
4% |
72% |
|
321 |
5% |
68% |
|
322 |
9% |
63% |
|
323 |
3% |
54% |
|
324 |
6% |
51% |
Median |
325 |
3% |
45% |
|
326 |
4% |
42% |
Majority |
327 |
6% |
38% |
|
328 |
3% |
31% |
|
329 |
6% |
28% |
|
330 |
2% |
23% |
|
331 |
3% |
20% |
|
332 |
2% |
18% |
|
333 |
2% |
15% |
|
334 |
3% |
14% |
|
335 |
2% |
11% |
|
336 |
1.1% |
9% |
|
337 |
1.3% |
8% |
|
338 |
0.7% |
6% |
|
339 |
1.1% |
6% |
|
340 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
341 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
342 |
0.9% |
4% |
|
343 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
344 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
345 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
346 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
347 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
348 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
349 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
350 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
351 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
352 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
353 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
354 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
355 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
356 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
357 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
358 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
359 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
360 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
361 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
362 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
363 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
364 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
242 |
0% |
100% |
|
243 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
244 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
245 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
246 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
247 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
248 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
249 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
250 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
251 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
252 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
253 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
254 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
255 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
256 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
257 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
258 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
259 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
|
260 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
261 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
262 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
|
263 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
264 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
265 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
266 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
267 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
268 |
0.6% |
96% |
|
269 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
270 |
1.1% |
95% |
|
271 |
0.6% |
94% |
|
272 |
1.5% |
93% |
|
273 |
2% |
92% |
|
274 |
1.4% |
90% |
|
275 |
2% |
88% |
|
276 |
1.4% |
86% |
|
277 |
2% |
85% |
|
278 |
3% |
83% |
|
279 |
2% |
80% |
|
280 |
2% |
77% |
|
281 |
2% |
75% |
|
282 |
3% |
73% |
|
283 |
3% |
70% |
|
284 |
4% |
66% |
|
285 |
3% |
62% |
|
286 |
2% |
59% |
|
287 |
6% |
57% |
|
288 |
4% |
51% |
Median |
289 |
5% |
47% |
|
290 |
3% |
41% |
|
291 |
3% |
39% |
|
292 |
3% |
35% |
|
293 |
4% |
32% |
|
294 |
2% |
28% |
|
295 |
4% |
26% |
|
296 |
4% |
22% |
|
297 |
1.5% |
19% |
|
298 |
1.5% |
17% |
|
299 |
2% |
16% |
|
300 |
1.1% |
14% |
|
301 |
1.3% |
13% |
|
302 |
2% |
11% |
|
303 |
1.1% |
10% |
|
304 |
1.2% |
8% |
|
305 |
1.1% |
7% |
|
306 |
0.8% |
6% |
|
307 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
308 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
309 |
0.9% |
4% |
|
310 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
311 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
312 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
313 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
314 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
315 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
316 |
0.2% |
1.5% |
|
317 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
|
318 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
319 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
320 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
321 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
322 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
323 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
324 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
325 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
326 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
328 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
329 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
330 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
331 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
332 |
0% |
0% |
|
333 |
0% |
0% |
|
334 |
0% |
0% |
|
335 |
0% |
0% |
|
336 |
0% |
0% |
|
337 |
0% |
0% |
|
338 |
0% |
0% |
|
339 |
0% |
0% |
|
340 |
0% |
0% |
|
341 |
0% |
0% |
|
342 |
0% |
0% |
|
343 |
0% |
0% |
|
344 |
0% |
0% |
|
345 |
0% |
0% |
|
346 |
0% |
0% |
|
347 |
0% |
0% |
|
348 |
0% |
0% |
|
349 |
0% |
0% |
|
350 |
0% |
0% |
|
351 |
0% |
0% |
|
352 |
0% |
0% |
|
353 |
0% |
0% |
|
354 |
0% |
0% |
|
355 |
0% |
0% |
|
356 |
0% |
0% |
|
357 |
0% |
0% |
|
358 |
0% |
0% |
|
359 |
0% |
0% |
|
360 |
0% |
0% |
|
361 |
0% |
0% |
|
362 |
0% |
0% |
|
363 |
0% |
0% |
|
364 |
0% |
0% |
|
365 |
0% |
0% |
|
366 |
0% |
0% |
|
367 |
0% |
0% |
|
368 |
0% |
0% |
|
369 |
0% |
0% |
|
370 |
0% |
0% |
|
371 |
0% |
0% |
|
372 |
0% |
0% |
|
373 |
0% |
0% |
|
374 |
0% |
0% |
|
375 |
0% |
0% |
|
376 |
0% |
0% |
|
377 |
0% |
0% |
|
378 |
0% |
0% |
|
379 |
0% |
0% |
|
380 |
0% |
0% |
|
381 |
0% |
0% |
|
382 |
0% |
0% |
|
383 |
0% |
0% |
|
384 |
0% |
0% |
|
385 |
0% |
0% |
|
386 |
0% |
0% |
|
387 |
0% |
0% |
|
388 |
0% |
0% |
|
389 |
0% |
0% |
|
390 |
0% |
0% |
|
391 |
0% |
0% |
|
392 |
0% |
0% |
|
393 |
0% |
0% |
|
394 |
0% |
0% |
|
395 |
0% |
0% |
|
396 |
0% |
0% |
|
397 |
0% |
0% |
|
398 |
0% |
0% |
|
399 |
0% |
0% |
|
400 |
0% |
0% |
|
401 |
0% |
0% |
|
402 |
0% |
0% |
|
403 |
0% |
0% |
|
404 |
0% |
0% |
|
405 |
0% |
0% |
|
406 |
0% |
0% |
|
407 |
0% |
0% |
|
408 |
0% |
0% |
|
409 |
0% |
0% |
|
410 |
0% |
0% |
|
411 |
0% |
0% |
|
412 |
0% |
0% |
|
413 |
0% |
0% |
|
414 |
0% |
0% |
|
415 |
0% |
0% |
|
416 |
0% |
0% |
|
417 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
237 |
0% |
100% |
|
238 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
239 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
240 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
241 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
242 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
243 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
244 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
245 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
246 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
247 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
248 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
249 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
250 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
251 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
252 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
253 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
254 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
|
255 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
256 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
257 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
|
258 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
259 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
260 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
261 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
262 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
263 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
264 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
265 |
1.1% |
95% |
|
266 |
0.6% |
94% |
|
267 |
1.4% |
93% |
|
268 |
2% |
92% |
|
269 |
1.4% |
90% |
|
270 |
2% |
88% |
|
271 |
1.4% |
86% |
|
272 |
2% |
85% |
|
273 |
3% |
83% |
|
274 |
2% |
80% |
|
275 |
3% |
78% |
|
276 |
2% |
75% |
|
277 |
3% |
73% |
|
278 |
4% |
70% |
|
279 |
4% |
66% |
|
280 |
3% |
62% |
|
281 |
2% |
59% |
|
282 |
6% |
57% |
|
283 |
4% |
51% |
Median |
284 |
5% |
46% |
|
285 |
3% |
41% |
|
286 |
3% |
38% |
|
287 |
3% |
35% |
|
288 |
4% |
32% |
|
289 |
3% |
28% |
|
290 |
4% |
26% |
|
291 |
3% |
22% |
|
292 |
1.4% |
19% |
|
293 |
1.3% |
17% |
|
294 |
2% |
16% |
|
295 |
1.1% |
14% |
|
296 |
2% |
13% |
|
297 |
2% |
11% |
|
298 |
1.0% |
9% |
|
299 |
1.2% |
8% |
|
300 |
1.1% |
7% |
|
301 |
0.9% |
6% |
|
302 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
303 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
304 |
0.9% |
4% |
|
305 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
306 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
307 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
308 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
309 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
310 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
311 |
0.2% |
1.5% |
|
312 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
|
313 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
314 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
315 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
316 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
317 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
318 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
319 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
320 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
321 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
322 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
323 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
324 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
325 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
326 |
0% |
0.1% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
0% |
|
328 |
0% |
0% |
|
329 |
0% |
0% |
|
330 |
0% |
0% |
|
331 |
0% |
0% |
|
332 |
0% |
0% |
|
333 |
0% |
0% |
|
334 |
0% |
0% |
|
335 |
0% |
0% |
|
336 |
0% |
0% |
|
337 |
0% |
0% |
|
338 |
0% |
0% |
|
339 |
0% |
0% |
|
340 |
0% |
0% |
|
341 |
0% |
0% |
|
342 |
0% |
0% |
|
343 |
0% |
0% |
|
344 |
0% |
0% |
|
345 |
0% |
0% |
|
346 |
0% |
0% |
|
347 |
0% |
0% |
|
348 |
0% |
0% |
|
349 |
0% |
0% |
|
350 |
0% |
0% |
|
351 |
0% |
0% |
|
352 |
0% |
0% |
|
353 |
0% |
0% |
|
354 |
0% |
0% |
|
355 |
0% |
0% |
|
356 |
0% |
0% |
|
357 |
0% |
0% |
|
358 |
0% |
0% |
|
359 |
0% |
0% |
|
360 |
0% |
0% |
|
361 |
0% |
0% |
|
362 |
0% |
0% |
|
363 |
0% |
0% |
|
364 |
0% |
0% |
|
365 |
0% |
0% |
|
366 |
0% |
0% |
|
367 |
0% |
0% |
|
368 |
0% |
0% |
|
369 |
0% |
0% |
|
370 |
0% |
0% |
|
371 |
0% |
0% |
|
372 |
0% |
0% |
|
373 |
0% |
0% |
|
374 |
0% |
0% |
|
375 |
0% |
0% |
|
376 |
0% |
0% |
|
377 |
0% |
0% |
|
378 |
0% |
0% |
|
379 |
0% |
0% |
|
380 |
0% |
0% |
|
381 |
0% |
0% |
|
382 |
0% |
0% |
|
383 |
0% |
0% |
|
384 |
0% |
0% |
|
385 |
0% |
0% |
|
386 |
0% |
0% |
|
387 |
0% |
0% |
|
388 |
0% |
0% |
|
389 |
0% |
0% |
|
390 |
0% |
0% |
|
391 |
0% |
0% |
|
392 |
0% |
0% |
|
393 |
0% |
0% |
|
394 |
0% |
0% |
|
395 |
0% |
0% |
|
396 |
0% |
0% |
|
397 |
0% |
0% |
|
398 |
0% |
0% |
|
399 |
0% |
0% |
|
400 |
0% |
0% |
|
401 |
0% |
0% |
|
402 |
0% |
0% |
|
403 |
0% |
0% |
|
404 |
0% |
0% |
|
405 |
0% |
0% |
|
406 |
0% |
0% |
|
407 |
0% |
0% |
|
408 |
0% |
0% |
|
409 |
0% |
0% |
|
410 |
0% |
0% |
|
411 |
0% |
0% |
|
412 |
0% |
0% |
|
413 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
213 |
0% |
100% |
|
214 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
215 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
216 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
217 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
218 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
219 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
220 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
221 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
222 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
223 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
224 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
225 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
226 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
227 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
228 |
0.5% |
99.0% |
|
229 |
0.4% |
98.5% |
|
230 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
231 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
232 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
233 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
234 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
235 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
236 |
1.2% |
95% |
|
237 |
0.6% |
93% |
|
238 |
1.2% |
93% |
|
239 |
2% |
92% |
|
240 |
2% |
90% |
|
241 |
5% |
88% |
|
242 |
5% |
83% |
|
243 |
4% |
78% |
|
244 |
3% |
75% |
|
245 |
5% |
71% |
|
246 |
6% |
66% |
|
247 |
7% |
60% |
|
248 |
8% |
53% |
Median |
249 |
7% |
44% |
|
250 |
5% |
37% |
|
251 |
2% |
32% |
|
252 |
3% |
30% |
|
253 |
4% |
27% |
|
254 |
3% |
23% |
|
255 |
4% |
20% |
|
256 |
2% |
16% |
|
257 |
3% |
14% |
|
258 |
2% |
11% |
|
259 |
1.1% |
9% |
|
260 |
0.7% |
8% |
|
261 |
0.8% |
7% |
|
262 |
0.9% |
6% |
|
263 |
0.5% |
6% |
|
264 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
265 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
266 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
267 |
0.9% |
3% |
|
268 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
269 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
270 |
0.3% |
1.4% |
|
271 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
272 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
273 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
274 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
275 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
276 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
277 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
278 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
279 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
280 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
281 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
282 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
283 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
284 |
0% |
0% |
|
285 |
0% |
0% |
|
286 |
0% |
0% |
|
287 |
0% |
0% |
|
288 |
0% |
0% |
|
289 |
0% |
0% |
|
290 |
0% |
0% |
|
291 |
0% |
0% |
|
292 |
0% |
0% |
|
293 |
0% |
0% |
|
294 |
0% |
0% |
|
295 |
0% |
0% |
|
296 |
0% |
0% |
|
297 |
0% |
0% |
|
298 |
0% |
0% |
|
299 |
0% |
0% |
|
300 |
0% |
0% |
|
301 |
0% |
0% |
|
302 |
0% |
0% |
|
303 |
0% |
0% |
|
304 |
0% |
0% |
|
305 |
0% |
0% |
|
306 |
0% |
0% |
|
307 |
0% |
0% |
|
308 |
0% |
0% |
|
309 |
0% |
0% |
|
310 |
0% |
0% |
|
311 |
0% |
0% |
|
312 |
0% |
0% |
|
313 |
0% |
0% |
|
314 |
0% |
0% |
|
315 |
0% |
0% |
|
316 |
0% |
0% |
|
317 |
0% |
0% |
|
318 |
0% |
0% |
|
319 |
0% |
0% |
|
320 |
0% |
0% |
|
321 |
0% |
0% |
|
322 |
0% |
0% |
|
323 |
0% |
0% |
|
324 |
0% |
0% |
|
325 |
0% |
0% |
|
326 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
0% |
|
328 |
0% |
0% |
|
329 |
0% |
0% |
|
330 |
0% |
0% |
|
331 |
0% |
0% |
|
332 |
0% |
0% |
|
333 |
0% |
0% |
|
334 |
0% |
0% |
|
335 |
0% |
0% |
|
336 |
0% |
0% |
|
337 |
0% |
0% |
|
338 |
0% |
0% |
|
339 |
0% |
0% |
|
340 |
0% |
0% |
|
341 |
0% |
0% |
|
342 |
0% |
0% |
|
343 |
0% |
0% |
|
344 |
0% |
0% |
|
345 |
0% |
0% |
|
346 |
0% |
0% |
|
347 |
0% |
0% |
|
348 |
0% |
0% |
|
349 |
0% |
0% |
|
350 |
0% |
0% |
|
351 |
0% |
0% |
|
352 |
0% |
0% |
|
353 |
0% |
0% |
|
354 |
0% |
0% |
|
355 |
0% |
0% |
|
356 |
0% |
0% |
|
357 |
0% |
0% |
|
358 |
0% |
0% |
|
359 |
0% |
0% |
|
360 |
0% |
0% |
|
361 |
0% |
0% |
|
362 |
0% |
0% |
|
363 |
0% |
0% |
|
364 |
0% |
0% |
|
365 |
0% |
0% |
|
366 |
0% |
0% |
|
367 |
0% |
0% |
|
368 |
0% |
0% |
|
369 |
0% |
0% |
|
370 |
0% |
0% |
|
371 |
0% |
0% |
|
372 |
0% |
0% |
|
373 |
0% |
0% |
|
374 |
0% |
0% |
|
375 |
0% |
0% |
|
376 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
197 |
0% |
100% |
|
198 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
199 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
200 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
201 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
202 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
203 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
204 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
205 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
206 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
207 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
208 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
209 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
210 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
211 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
212 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
|
213 |
0.4% |
98.8% |
|
214 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
215 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
216 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
217 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
218 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
219 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
220 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
221 |
0.5% |
95% |
|
222 |
1.0% |
94% |
|
223 |
1.4% |
93% |
|
224 |
2% |
92% |
|
225 |
1.3% |
90% |
|
226 |
1.4% |
89% |
|
227 |
4% |
88% |
|
228 |
3% |
83% |
|
229 |
2% |
80% |
|
230 |
6% |
78% |
|
231 |
2% |
71% |
|
232 |
4% |
69% |
|
233 |
4% |
65% |
|
234 |
7% |
61% |
|
235 |
4% |
54% |
Median |
236 |
6% |
50% |
|
237 |
7% |
43% |
|
238 |
3% |
36% |
|
239 |
3% |
34% |
|
240 |
2% |
31% |
|
241 |
3% |
29% |
|
242 |
4% |
26% |
|
243 |
3% |
22% |
|
244 |
2% |
19% |
|
245 |
2% |
17% |
|
246 |
2% |
15% |
|
247 |
2% |
13% |
|
248 |
1.3% |
11% |
|
249 |
1.0% |
10% |
|
250 |
1.3% |
9% |
|
251 |
1.1% |
8% |
|
252 |
1.0% |
7% |
|
253 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
254 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
255 |
1.0% |
4% |
|
256 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
257 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
258 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
259 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
260 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
261 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
262 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
263 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
264 |
0.3% |
1.1% |
|
265 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
266 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
267 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
268 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
269 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
270 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
271 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
272 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
273 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
274 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
275 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
276 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
277 |
0% |
0% |
|
278 |
0% |
0% |
|
279 |
0% |
0% |
|
280 |
0% |
0% |
|
281 |
0% |
0% |
|
282 |
0% |
0% |
|
283 |
0% |
0% |
|
284 |
0% |
0% |
|
285 |
0% |
0% |
|
286 |
0% |
0% |
|
287 |
0% |
0% |
|
288 |
0% |
0% |
|
289 |
0% |
0% |
|
290 |
0% |
0% |
|
291 |
0% |
0% |
|
292 |
0% |
0% |
|
293 |
0% |
0% |
|
294 |
0% |
0% |
|
295 |
0% |
0% |
|
296 |
0% |
0% |
|
297 |
0% |
0% |
|
298 |
0% |
0% |
|
299 |
0% |
0% |
|
300 |
0% |
0% |
|
301 |
0% |
0% |
|
302 |
0% |
0% |
|
303 |
0% |
0% |
|
304 |
0% |
0% |
|
305 |
0% |
0% |
|
306 |
0% |
0% |
|
307 |
0% |
0% |
|
308 |
0% |
0% |
|
309 |
0% |
0% |
|
310 |
0% |
0% |
|
311 |
0% |
0% |
|
312 |
0% |
0% |
|
313 |
0% |
0% |
|
314 |
0% |
0% |
|
315 |
0% |
0% |
|
316 |
0% |
0% |
|
317 |
0% |
0% |
|
318 |
0% |
0% |
|
319 |
0% |
0% |
|
320 |
0% |
0% |
|
321 |
0% |
0% |
|
322 |
0% |
0% |
|
323 |
0% |
0% |
|
324 |
0% |
0% |
|
325 |
0% |
0% |
|
326 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
0% |
|
328 |
0% |
0% |
|
329 |
0% |
0% |
|
330 |
0% |
0% |
|
331 |
0% |
0% |
|
332 |
0% |
0% |
|
333 |
0% |
0% |
|
334 |
0% |
0% |
|
335 |
0% |
0% |
|
336 |
0% |
0% |
|
337 |
0% |
0% |
|
338 |
0% |
0% |
|
339 |
0% |
0% |
|
340 |
0% |
0% |
|
341 |
0% |
0% |
|
342 |
0% |
0% |
|
343 |
0% |
0% |
|
344 |
0% |
0% |
|
345 |
0% |
0% |
|
346 |
0% |
0% |
|
347 |
0% |
0% |
|
348 |
0% |
0% |
|
349 |
0% |
0% |
|
350 |
0% |
0% |
|
351 |
0% |
0% |
|
352 |
0% |
0% |
|
353 |
0% |
0% |
|
354 |
0% |
0% |
|
355 |
0% |
0% |
|
356 |
0% |
0% |
|
357 |
0% |
0% |
|
358 |
0% |
0% |
|
359 |
0% |
0% |
|
360 |
0% |
0% |
|
361 |
0% |
0% |
|
362 |
0% |
0% |
|
363 |
0% |
0% |
|
364 |
0% |
0% |
|
365 |
0% |
0% |
|
366 |
0% |
0% |
|
367 |
0% |
0% |
|
368 |
0% |
0% |
|
369 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Conservative Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
192 |
0% |
100% |
|
193 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
194 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
195 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
196 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
197 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
198 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
199 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
200 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
201 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
202 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
203 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
204 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
205 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
206 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
207 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
|
208 |
0.4% |
98.8% |
|
209 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
210 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
211 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
212 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
213 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
214 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
215 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
216 |
0.5% |
95% |
|
217 |
1.0% |
94% |
|
218 |
2% |
93% |
|
219 |
1.4% |
92% |
|
220 |
2% |
90% |
|
221 |
1.3% |
89% |
|
222 |
4% |
88% |
|
223 |
3% |
83% |
|
224 |
3% |
80% |
|
225 |
6% |
77% |
|
226 |
3% |
71% |
|
227 |
4% |
69% |
|
228 |
4% |
65% |
|
229 |
7% |
61% |
|
230 |
4% |
53% |
Median |
231 |
6% |
49% |
|
232 |
7% |
43% |
|
233 |
3% |
36% |
|
234 |
3% |
34% |
|
235 |
2% |
31% |
|
236 |
3% |
29% |
|
237 |
3% |
26% |
|
238 |
3% |
22% |
|
239 |
2% |
19% |
|
240 |
2% |
17% |
|
241 |
2% |
15% |
|
242 |
2% |
13% |
|
243 |
1.0% |
11% |
|
244 |
1.0% |
10% |
|
245 |
1.2% |
9% |
|
246 |
1.1% |
8% |
|
247 |
1.1% |
6% |
|
248 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
249 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
250 |
1.1% |
4% |
|
251 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
252 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
253 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
254 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
255 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
256 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
257 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
258 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
259 |
0.4% |
1.1% |
|
260 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
261 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
262 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
263 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
264 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
265 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
266 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
267 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
268 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
269 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
270 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
271 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
272 |
0% |
0% |
|
273 |
0% |
0% |
|
274 |
0% |
0% |
|
275 |
0% |
0% |
|
276 |
0% |
0% |
|
277 |
0% |
0% |
|
278 |
0% |
0% |
|
279 |
0% |
0% |
|
280 |
0% |
0% |
|
281 |
0% |
0% |
|
282 |
0% |
0% |
|
283 |
0% |
0% |
|
284 |
0% |
0% |
|
285 |
0% |
0% |
|
286 |
0% |
0% |
|
287 |
0% |
0% |
|
288 |
0% |
0% |
|
289 |
0% |
0% |
|
290 |
0% |
0% |
|
291 |
0% |
0% |
|
292 |
0% |
0% |
|
293 |
0% |
0% |
|
294 |
0% |
0% |
|
295 |
0% |
0% |
|
296 |
0% |
0% |
|
297 |
0% |
0% |
|
298 |
0% |
0% |
|
299 |
0% |
0% |
|
300 |
0% |
0% |
|
301 |
0% |
0% |
|
302 |
0% |
0% |
|
303 |
0% |
0% |
|
304 |
0% |
0% |
|
305 |
0% |
0% |
|
306 |
0% |
0% |
|
307 |
0% |
0% |
|
308 |
0% |
0% |
|
309 |
0% |
0% |
|
310 |
0% |
0% |
|
311 |
0% |
0% |
|
312 |
0% |
0% |
|
313 |
0% |
0% |
|
314 |
0% |
0% |
|
315 |
0% |
0% |
|
316 |
0% |
0% |
|
317 |
0% |
0% |
|
318 |
0% |
0% |
|
319 |
0% |
0% |
|
320 |
0% |
0% |
|
321 |
0% |
0% |
|
322 |
0% |
0% |
|
323 |
0% |
0% |
|
324 |
0% |
0% |
|
325 |
0% |
0% |
|
326 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
0% |
|
328 |
0% |
0% |
|
329 |
0% |
0% |
|
330 |
0% |
0% |
|
331 |
0% |
0% |
|
332 |
0% |
0% |
|
333 |
0% |
0% |
|
334 |
0% |
0% |
|
335 |
0% |
0% |
|
336 |
0% |
0% |
|
337 |
0% |
0% |
|
338 |
0% |
0% |
|
339 |
0% |
0% |
|
340 |
0% |
0% |
|
341 |
0% |
0% |
|
342 |
0% |
0% |
|
343 |
0% |
0% |
|
344 |
0% |
0% |
|
345 |
0% |
0% |
|
346 |
0% |
0% |
|
347 |
0% |
0% |
|
348 |
0% |
0% |
|
349 |
0% |
0% |
|
350 |
0% |
0% |
|
351 |
0% |
0% |
|
352 |
0% |
0% |
|
353 |
0% |
0% |
|
354 |
0% |
0% |
|
355 |
0% |
0% |
|
356 |
0% |
0% |
|
357 |
0% |
0% |
|
358 |
0% |
0% |
|
359 |
0% |
0% |
|
360 |
0% |
0% |
|
361 |
0% |
0% |
|
362 |
0% |
0% |
|
363 |
0% |
0% |
|
364 |
0% |
0% |
|
365 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: YouGov
- Commissioner(s): The Times
- Fieldwork period: 11–12 September 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1681
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.73%