Opinion Poll by Kantar, 22–26 September 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour Party | 32.1% | 40.8% | 38.9–42.7% | 38.4–43.3% | 37.9–43.7% | 37.0–44.7% |
| Conservative Party | 43.6% | 36.6% | 34.7–38.5% | 34.2–39.0% | 33.8–39.5% | 32.9–40.4% |
| Liberal Democrats | 11.5% | 10.4% | 9.3–11.7% | 9.0–12.1% | 8.8–12.4% | 8.3–13.0% |
| Scottish National Party | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.2–6.5% | 4.1–6.7% | 3.7–7.2% |
| Green Party | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.7–4.1% | 2.5–4.3% | 2.4–4.5% | 2.1–5.0% |
| Brexit Party | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.1% | 0.8–2.3% | 0.7–2.6% |
| Plaid Cymru | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| UK Independence Party | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour Party | 202 | 291 | 276–310 | 272–316 | 267–318 | 254–322 |
| Conservative Party | 365 | 262 | 241–282 | 235–287 | 231–292 | 227–306 |
| Liberal Democrats | 11 | 12 | 7–19 | 6–20 | 6–22 | 6–26 |
| Scottish National Party | 48 | 58 | 56–58 | 53–58 | 50–58 | 47–58 |
| Green Party | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Brexit Party | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Plaid Cymru | 4 | 5 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 3–8 |
| UK Independence Party | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 202 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 203 | 0% | 100% | |
| 204 | 0% | 100% | |
| 205 | 0% | 100% | |
| 206 | 0% | 100% | |
| 207 | 0% | 100% | |
| 208 | 0% | 100% | |
| 209 | 0% | 100% | |
| 210 | 0% | 100% | |
| 211 | 0% | 100% | |
| 212 | 0% | 100% | |
| 213 | 0% | 100% | |
| 214 | 0% | 100% | |
| 215 | 0% | 100% | |
| 216 | 0% | 100% | |
| 217 | 0% | 100% | |
| 218 | 0% | 100% | |
| 219 | 0% | 100% | |
| 220 | 0% | 100% | |
| 221 | 0% | 100% | |
| 222 | 0% | 100% | |
| 223 | 0% | 100% | |
| 224 | 0% | 100% | |
| 225 | 0% | 100% | |
| 226 | 0% | 100% | |
| 227 | 0% | 100% | |
| 228 | 0% | 100% | |
| 229 | 0% | 100% | |
| 230 | 0% | 100% | |
| 231 | 0% | 100% | |
| 232 | 0% | 100% | |
| 233 | 0% | 100% | |
| 234 | 0% | 100% | |
| 235 | 0% | 100% | |
| 236 | 0% | 100% | |
| 237 | 0% | 100% | |
| 238 | 0% | 100% | |
| 239 | 0% | 100% | |
| 240 | 0% | 100% | |
| 241 | 0% | 100% | |
| 242 | 0% | 100% | |
| 243 | 0% | 100% | |
| 244 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 245 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 246 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 247 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 248 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 249 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 250 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 251 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 252 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 253 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 254 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 255 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 256 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 257 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 258 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 259 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 260 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 261 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 262 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 263 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 264 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 265 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 266 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 267 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 268 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 269 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 270 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 271 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 272 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 273 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 274 | 0.5% | 94% | |
| 275 | 2% | 94% | |
| 276 | 4% | 92% | |
| 277 | 1.1% | 88% | |
| 278 | 3% | 87% | |
| 279 | 4% | 84% | |
| 280 | 2% | 80% | |
| 281 | 0.6% | 78% | |
| 282 | 1.1% | 78% | |
| 283 | 2% | 77% | |
| 284 | 3% | 75% | |
| 285 | 1.1% | 72% | |
| 286 | 1.0% | 71% | |
| 287 | 4% | 70% | |
| 288 | 1.4% | 66% | |
| 289 | 1.5% | 64% | |
| 290 | 2% | 63% | |
| 291 | 11% | 61% | Median |
| 292 | 8% | 50% | |
| 293 | 2% | 41% | |
| 294 | 0.3% | 39% | |
| 295 | 0.5% | 39% | |
| 296 | 1.2% | 39% | |
| 297 | 3% | 37% | |
| 298 | 6% | 35% | |
| 299 | 4% | 29% | |
| 300 | 3% | 25% | |
| 301 | 0.7% | 22% | |
| 302 | 2% | 21% | |
| 303 | 1.1% | 19% | |
| 304 | 1.4% | 18% | |
| 305 | 0.3% | 16% | |
| 306 | 0.9% | 16% | |
| 307 | 1.0% | 15% | |
| 308 | 0.8% | 14% | |
| 309 | 2% | 13% | |
| 310 | 1.0% | 11% | |
| 311 | 1.2% | 10% | |
| 312 | 0.7% | 9% | |
| 313 | 2% | 8% | |
| 314 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 315 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 316 | 2% | 6% | |
| 317 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 318 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 319 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 320 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 321 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 322 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 323 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 324 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 325 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 326 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 327 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 328 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 329 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 330 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 219 | 0% | 100% | |
| 220 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 221 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 222 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 223 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 224 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 225 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 226 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 227 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 228 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 229 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 230 | 0.3% | 98.7% | |
| 231 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 232 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 233 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 234 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 235 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 236 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 237 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 238 | 1.0% | 93% | |
| 239 | 1.4% | 92% | |
| 240 | 0.9% | 91% | |
| 241 | 0.2% | 90% | |
| 242 | 0.8% | 90% | |
| 243 | 1.3% | 89% | |
| 244 | 1.2% | 88% | |
| 245 | 1.0% | 87% | |
| 246 | 2% | 86% | |
| 247 | 0.4% | 84% | |
| 248 | 2% | 84% | |
| 249 | 1.0% | 82% | |
| 250 | 5% | 81% | |
| 251 | 0.3% | 76% | |
| 252 | 0.7% | 75% | |
| 253 | 2% | 74% | |
| 254 | 1.3% | 72% | |
| 255 | 2% | 71% | |
| 256 | 1.3% | 69% | |
| 257 | 2% | 68% | |
| 258 | 1.1% | 67% | |
| 259 | 2% | 66% | |
| 260 | 4% | 63% | |
| 261 | 9% | 59% | |
| 262 | 3% | 51% | Median |
| 263 | 2% | 47% | |
| 264 | 1.2% | 46% | |
| 265 | 2% | 44% | |
| 266 | 0.9% | 42% | |
| 267 | 1.4% | 41% | |
| 268 | 3% | 40% | |
| 269 | 6% | 37% | |
| 270 | 1.2% | 31% | |
| 271 | 1.3% | 30% | |
| 272 | 1.1% | 29% | |
| 273 | 3% | 27% | |
| 274 | 2% | 24% | |
| 275 | 1.0% | 22% | |
| 276 | 3% | 21% | |
| 277 | 0.5% | 19% | |
| 278 | 2% | 18% | |
| 279 | 0.5% | 17% | |
| 280 | 1.2% | 16% | |
| 281 | 4% | 15% | |
| 282 | 2% | 11% | |
| 283 | 2% | 9% | |
| 284 | 0.6% | 7% | |
| 285 | 0.9% | 7% | |
| 286 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 287 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 288 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 289 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 290 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 291 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 292 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 293 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 294 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 295 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 296 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 297 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 298 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 299 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 300 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 301 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 302 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 303 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 304 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 305 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 306 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 307 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 308 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 309 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 310 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 311 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 312 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 313 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 314 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 315 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 316 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 317 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 318 | 0% | 0% | |
| 319 | 0% | 0% | |
| 320 | 0% | 0% | |
| 321 | 0% | 0% | |
| 322 | 0% | 0% | |
| 323 | 0% | 0% | |
| 324 | 0% | 0% | |
| 325 | 0% | 0% | |
| 326 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 327 | 0% | 0% | |
| 328 | 0% | 0% | |
| 329 | 0% | 0% | |
| 330 | 0% | 0% | |
| 331 | 0% | 0% | |
| 332 | 0% | 0% | |
| 333 | 0% | 0% | |
| 334 | 0% | 0% | |
| 335 | 0% | 0% | |
| 336 | 0% | 0% | |
| 337 | 0% | 0% | |
| 338 | 0% | 0% | |
| 339 | 0% | 0% | |
| 340 | 0% | 0% | |
| 341 | 0% | 0% | |
| 342 | 0% | 0% | |
| 343 | 0% | 0% | |
| 344 | 0% | 0% | |
| 345 | 0% | 0% | |
| 346 | 0% | 0% | |
| 347 | 0% | 0% | |
| 348 | 0% | 0% | |
| 349 | 0% | 0% | |
| 350 | 0% | 0% | |
| 351 | 0% | 0% | |
| 352 | 0% | 0% | |
| 353 | 0% | 0% | |
| 354 | 0% | 0% | |
| 355 | 0% | 0% | |
| 356 | 0% | 0% | |
| 357 | 0% | 0% | |
| 358 | 0% | 0% | |
| 359 | 0% | 0% | |
| 360 | 0% | 0% | |
| 361 | 0% | 0% | |
| 362 | 0% | 0% | |
| 363 | 0% | 0% | |
| 364 | 0% | 0% | |
| 365 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Liberal Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 6% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 27% | 94% | |
| 8 | 2% | 67% | |
| 9 | 1.2% | 65% | |
| 10 | 1.1% | 63% | |
| 11 | 10% | 62% | Last Result |
| 12 | 3% | 52% | Median |
| 13 | 1.1% | 49% | |
| 14 | 0.7% | 48% | |
| 15 | 13% | 48% | |
| 16 | 9% | 34% | |
| 17 | 6% | 25% | |
| 18 | 8% | 19% | |
| 19 | 3% | 11% | |
| 20 | 3% | 7% | |
| 21 | 2% | 5% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish National Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 45 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 48 | 0.5% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 49 | 1.3% | 98.9% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 52 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 53 | 2% | 96% | |
| 54 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 55 | 3% | 94% | |
| 56 | 5% | 91% | |
| 57 | 10% | 86% | |
| 58 | 76% | 76% | Median |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Green Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Brexit Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Plaid Cymru
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 5% | 99.2% | Last Result |
| 5 | 78% | 95% | Median |
| 6 | 12% | 17% | |
| 7 | 4% | 4% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
UK Independence Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru | 266 | 369 | 99.5% | 349–389 | 344–395 | 339–399 | 325–403 |
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru | 265 | 368 | 99.4% | 348–388 | 343–394 | 338–398 | 324–402 |
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party | 261 | 363 | 99.0% | 343–383 | 338–389 | 332–393 | 319–397 |
| Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru | 254 | 354 | 98.7% | 339–372 | 334–377 | 328–380 | 317–383 |
| Labour Party – Scottish National Party | 250 | 349 | 97% | 334–367 | 329–372 | 323–375 | 312–379 |
| Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru | 417 | 324 | 46% | 303–345 | 297–349 | 294–356 | 289–369 |
| Conservative Party – Scottish National Party | 413 | 319 | 38% | 298–340 | 292–344 | 289–350 | 284–363 |
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru | 217 | 311 | 16% | 290–332 | 286–337 | 280–340 | 267–345 |
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats | 213 | 306 | 11% | 285–326 | 281–332 | 274–335 | 261–340 |
| Labour Party – Plaid Cymru | 206 | 297 | 0.9% | 281–316 | 277–321 | 272–324 | 259–327 |
| Labour Party | 202 | 291 | 0.1% | 276–310 | 272–316 | 267–318 | 254–322 |
| Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats | 376 | 276 | 0% | 257–291 | 252–296 | 249–302 | 246–313 |
| Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru | 369 | 267 | 0% | 246–287 | 240–292 | 236–298 | 232–311 |
| Conservative Party | 365 | 262 | 0% | 241–282 | 235–287 | 231–292 | 227–306 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 266 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 267 | 0% | 100% | |
| 268 | 0% | 100% | |
| 269 | 0% | 100% | |
| 270 | 0% | 100% | |
| 271 | 0% | 100% | |
| 272 | 0% | 100% | |
| 273 | 0% | 100% | |
| 274 | 0% | 100% | |
| 275 | 0% | 100% | |
| 276 | 0% | 100% | |
| 277 | 0% | 100% | |
| 278 | 0% | 100% | |
| 279 | 0% | 100% | |
| 280 | 0% | 100% | |
| 281 | 0% | 100% | |
| 282 | 0% | 100% | |
| 283 | 0% | 100% | |
| 284 | 0% | 100% | |
| 285 | 0% | 100% | |
| 286 | 0% | 100% | |
| 287 | 0% | 100% | |
| 288 | 0% | 100% | |
| 289 | 0% | 100% | |
| 290 | 0% | 100% | |
| 291 | 0% | 100% | |
| 292 | 0% | 100% | |
| 293 | 0% | 100% | |
| 294 | 0% | 100% | |
| 295 | 0% | 100% | |
| 296 | 0% | 100% | |
| 297 | 0% | 100% | |
| 298 | 0% | 100% | |
| 299 | 0% | 100% | |
| 300 | 0% | 100% | |
| 301 | 0% | 100% | |
| 302 | 0% | 100% | |
| 303 | 0% | 100% | |
| 304 | 0% | 100% | |
| 305 | 0% | 100% | |
| 306 | 0% | 100% | |
| 307 | 0% | 100% | |
| 308 | 0% | 100% | |
| 309 | 0% | 100% | |
| 310 | 0% | 100% | |
| 311 | 0% | 100% | |
| 312 | 0% | 100% | |
| 313 | 0% | 100% | |
| 314 | 0% | 100% | |
| 315 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 316 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 317 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 318 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 319 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 320 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 321 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 322 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 323 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 324 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 325 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 326 | 0.1% | 99.5% | Majority |
| 327 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 328 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 329 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 330 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 331 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 332 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 333 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 334 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 335 | 0.2% | 98.7% | |
| 336 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 337 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 338 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 339 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 340 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 341 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 342 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 343 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 344 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 345 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 346 | 0.9% | 94% | |
| 347 | 0.6% | 93% | |
| 348 | 2% | 93% | |
| 349 | 2% | 91% | |
| 350 | 4% | 89% | |
| 351 | 1.2% | 85% | |
| 352 | 0.5% | 84% | |
| 353 | 2% | 83% | |
| 354 | 0.5% | 82% | |
| 355 | 3% | 81% | |
| 356 | 1.0% | 79% | |
| 357 | 2% | 78% | |
| 358 | 3% | 76% | |
| 359 | 1.1% | 73% | |
| 360 | 1.3% | 71% | |
| 361 | 1.2% | 70% | |
| 362 | 6% | 69% | |
| 363 | 3% | 63% | |
| 364 | 1.4% | 60% | |
| 365 | 0.9% | 59% | |
| 366 | 2% | 58% | |
| 367 | 1.2% | 56% | Median |
| 368 | 2% | 54% | |
| 369 | 3% | 53% | |
| 370 | 9% | 49% | |
| 371 | 4% | 41% | |
| 372 | 2% | 37% | |
| 373 | 2% | 34% | |
| 374 | 1.1% | 32% | |
| 375 | 1.4% | 31% | |
| 376 | 1.3% | 30% | |
| 377 | 2% | 29% | |
| 378 | 0.9% | 26% | |
| 379 | 0.7% | 25% | |
| 380 | 5% | 25% | |
| 381 | 1.4% | 19% | |
| 382 | 2% | 18% | |
| 383 | 0.5% | 17% | |
| 384 | 2% | 16% | |
| 385 | 0.9% | 14% | |
| 386 | 1.3% | 13% | |
| 387 | 1.2% | 12% | |
| 388 | 0.8% | 11% | |
| 389 | 0.2% | 10% | |
| 390 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 391 | 1.4% | 9% | |
| 392 | 1.0% | 8% | |
| 393 | 0.6% | 7% | |
| 394 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 395 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 396 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 397 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 398 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 399 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 400 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 401 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 402 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 403 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 404 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 405 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 406 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 407 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 408 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 409 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 410 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 411 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 412 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 265 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 266 | 0% | 100% | |
| 267 | 0% | 100% | |
| 268 | 0% | 100% | |
| 269 | 0% | 100% | |
| 270 | 0% | 100% | |
| 271 | 0% | 100% | |
| 272 | 0% | 100% | |
| 273 | 0% | 100% | |
| 274 | 0% | 100% | |
| 275 | 0% | 100% | |
| 276 | 0% | 100% | |
| 277 | 0% | 100% | |
| 278 | 0% | 100% | |
| 279 | 0% | 100% | |
| 280 | 0% | 100% | |
| 281 | 0% | 100% | |
| 282 | 0% | 100% | |
| 283 | 0% | 100% | |
| 284 | 0% | 100% | |
| 285 | 0% | 100% | |
| 286 | 0% | 100% | |
| 287 | 0% | 100% | |
| 288 | 0% | 100% | |
| 289 | 0% | 100% | |
| 290 | 0% | 100% | |
| 291 | 0% | 100% | |
| 292 | 0% | 100% | |
| 293 | 0% | 100% | |
| 294 | 0% | 100% | |
| 295 | 0% | 100% | |
| 296 | 0% | 100% | |
| 297 | 0% | 100% | |
| 298 | 0% | 100% | |
| 299 | 0% | 100% | |
| 300 | 0% | 100% | |
| 301 | 0% | 100% | |
| 302 | 0% | 100% | |
| 303 | 0% | 100% | |
| 304 | 0% | 100% | |
| 305 | 0% | 100% | |
| 306 | 0% | 100% | |
| 307 | 0% | 100% | |
| 308 | 0% | 100% | |
| 309 | 0% | 100% | |
| 310 | 0% | 100% | |
| 311 | 0% | 100% | |
| 312 | 0% | 100% | |
| 313 | 0% | 100% | |
| 314 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 315 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 316 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 317 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 318 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 319 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 320 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 321 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 322 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 323 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 324 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 325 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 326 | 0% | 99.4% | Majority |
| 327 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 328 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 329 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 330 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 331 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 332 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 333 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 334 | 0.2% | 98.7% | |
| 335 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 336 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 337 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 338 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 339 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 340 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 341 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 342 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 343 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 344 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 345 | 0.9% | 94% | |
| 346 | 0.6% | 93% | |
| 347 | 2% | 93% | |
| 348 | 2% | 91% | |
| 349 | 4% | 89% | |
| 350 | 1.2% | 85% | |
| 351 | 0.5% | 84% | |
| 352 | 2% | 83% | |
| 353 | 0.5% | 82% | |
| 354 | 3% | 81% | |
| 355 | 1.0% | 79% | |
| 356 | 2% | 78% | |
| 357 | 3% | 76% | |
| 358 | 1.1% | 73% | |
| 359 | 1.3% | 71% | |
| 360 | 1.2% | 70% | |
| 361 | 6% | 69% | |
| 362 | 3% | 63% | |
| 363 | 1.4% | 60% | |
| 364 | 0.9% | 59% | |
| 365 | 2% | 58% | |
| 366 | 1.2% | 56% | Median |
| 367 | 2% | 54% | |
| 368 | 3% | 53% | |
| 369 | 9% | 49% | |
| 370 | 4% | 41% | |
| 371 | 2% | 37% | |
| 372 | 2% | 34% | |
| 373 | 1.1% | 32% | |
| 374 | 1.4% | 31% | |
| 375 | 1.3% | 30% | |
| 376 | 2% | 29% | |
| 377 | 0.9% | 26% | |
| 378 | 0.7% | 25% | |
| 379 | 5% | 25% | |
| 380 | 1.4% | 19% | |
| 381 | 2% | 18% | |
| 382 | 0.5% | 17% | |
| 383 | 2% | 16% | |
| 384 | 0.9% | 14% | |
| 385 | 1.3% | 13% | |
| 386 | 1.2% | 12% | |
| 387 | 0.8% | 11% | |
| 388 | 0.2% | 10% | |
| 389 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 390 | 1.4% | 9% | |
| 391 | 1.0% | 8% | |
| 392 | 0.6% | 7% | |
| 393 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 394 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 395 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 396 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 397 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 398 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 399 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 400 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 401 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 402 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 403 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 404 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 405 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 406 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 407 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 408 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 409 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 410 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 411 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 261 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 262 | 0% | 100% | |
| 263 | 0% | 100% | |
| 264 | 0% | 100% | |
| 265 | 0% | 100% | |
| 266 | 0% | 100% | |
| 267 | 0% | 100% | |
| 268 | 0% | 100% | |
| 269 | 0% | 100% | |
| 270 | 0% | 100% | |
| 271 | 0% | 100% | |
| 272 | 0% | 100% | |
| 273 | 0% | 100% | |
| 274 | 0% | 100% | |
| 275 | 0% | 100% | |
| 276 | 0% | 100% | |
| 277 | 0% | 100% | |
| 278 | 0% | 100% | |
| 279 | 0% | 100% | |
| 280 | 0% | 100% | |
| 281 | 0% | 100% | |
| 282 | 0% | 100% | |
| 283 | 0% | 100% | |
| 284 | 0% | 100% | |
| 285 | 0% | 100% | |
| 286 | 0% | 100% | |
| 287 | 0% | 100% | |
| 288 | 0% | 100% | |
| 289 | 0% | 100% | |
| 290 | 0% | 100% | |
| 291 | 0% | 100% | |
| 292 | 0% | 100% | |
| 293 | 0% | 100% | |
| 294 | 0% | 100% | |
| 295 | 0% | 100% | |
| 296 | 0% | 100% | |
| 297 | 0% | 100% | |
| 298 | 0% | 100% | |
| 299 | 0% | 100% | |
| 300 | 0% | 100% | |
| 301 | 0% | 100% | |
| 302 | 0% | 100% | |
| 303 | 0% | 100% | |
| 304 | 0% | 100% | |
| 305 | 0% | 100% | |
| 306 | 0% | 100% | |
| 307 | 0% | 100% | |
| 308 | 0% | 100% | |
| 309 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 310 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 311 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 312 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 313 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 314 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 315 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 316 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 317 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 318 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 319 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 320 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 321 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 322 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 323 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 324 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 325 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 326 | 0.1% | 99.0% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 328 | 0.2% | 98.8% | |
| 329 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 330 | 0.6% | 98.5% | |
| 331 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 332 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 333 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 334 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 335 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 336 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 337 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 338 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 339 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 340 | 0.8% | 94% | |
| 341 | 0.7% | 93% | |
| 342 | 1.4% | 92% | |
| 343 | 3% | 91% | |
| 344 | 3% | 88% | |
| 345 | 1.3% | 85% | |
| 346 | 0.8% | 84% | |
| 347 | 2% | 83% | |
| 348 | 0.3% | 82% | |
| 349 | 2% | 81% | |
| 350 | 1.4% | 79% | |
| 351 | 2% | 77% | |
| 352 | 3% | 75% | |
| 353 | 1.0% | 72% | |
| 354 | 2% | 71% | |
| 355 | 1.1% | 70% | |
| 356 | 5% | 68% | |
| 357 | 4% | 63% | |
| 358 | 0.9% | 59% | |
| 359 | 1.2% | 58% | |
| 360 | 2% | 57% | |
| 361 | 1.3% | 55% | Median |
| 362 | 1.4% | 54% | |
| 363 | 3% | 52% | |
| 364 | 9% | 49% | |
| 365 | 4% | 40% | |
| 366 | 3% | 36% | |
| 367 | 2% | 34% | |
| 368 | 1.2% | 32% | |
| 369 | 1.3% | 31% | |
| 370 | 2% | 29% | |
| 371 | 1.3% | 27% | |
| 372 | 1.0% | 26% | |
| 373 | 0.8% | 25% | |
| 374 | 5% | 24% | |
| 375 | 1.0% | 19% | |
| 376 | 2% | 18% | |
| 377 | 0.4% | 16% | |
| 378 | 2% | 16% | |
| 379 | 1.0% | 14% | |
| 380 | 1.0% | 13% | |
| 381 | 2% | 12% | |
| 382 | 0.6% | 11% | |
| 383 | 0.3% | 10% | |
| 384 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 385 | 1.4% | 9% | |
| 386 | 0.9% | 7% | |
| 387 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 388 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 389 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 390 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 391 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 392 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 393 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 394 | 0.2% | 1.5% | |
| 395 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 396 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 397 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 398 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 399 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 400 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 401 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 402 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 403 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 404 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 405 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 406 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 254 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 255 | 0% | 100% | |
| 256 | 0% | 100% | |
| 257 | 0% | 100% | |
| 258 | 0% | 100% | |
| 259 | 0% | 100% | |
| 260 | 0% | 100% | |
| 261 | 0% | 100% | |
| 262 | 0% | 100% | |
| 263 | 0% | 100% | |
| 264 | 0% | 100% | |
| 265 | 0% | 100% | |
| 266 | 0% | 100% | |
| 267 | 0% | 100% | |
| 268 | 0% | 100% | |
| 269 | 0% | 100% | |
| 270 | 0% | 100% | |
| 271 | 0% | 100% | |
| 272 | 0% | 100% | |
| 273 | 0% | 100% | |
| 274 | 0% | 100% | |
| 275 | 0% | 100% | |
| 276 | 0% | 100% | |
| 277 | 0% | 100% | |
| 278 | 0% | 100% | |
| 279 | 0% | 100% | |
| 280 | 0% | 100% | |
| 281 | 0% | 100% | |
| 282 | 0% | 100% | |
| 283 | 0% | 100% | |
| 284 | 0% | 100% | |
| 285 | 0% | 100% | |
| 286 | 0% | 100% | |
| 287 | 0% | 100% | |
| 288 | 0% | 100% | |
| 289 | 0% | 100% | |
| 290 | 0% | 100% | |
| 291 | 0% | 100% | |
| 292 | 0% | 100% | |
| 293 | 0% | 100% | |
| 294 | 0% | 100% | |
| 295 | 0% | 100% | |
| 296 | 0% | 100% | |
| 297 | 0% | 100% | |
| 298 | 0% | 100% | |
| 299 | 0% | 100% | |
| 300 | 0% | 100% | |
| 301 | 0% | 100% | |
| 302 | 0% | 100% | |
| 303 | 0% | 100% | |
| 304 | 0% | 100% | |
| 305 | 0% | 100% | |
| 306 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 307 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 308 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 309 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 310 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 311 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 312 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 313 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 314 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 315 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 316 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 317 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 318 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 319 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 320 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 321 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 322 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 323 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 324 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 325 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 326 | 0.3% | 98.7% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 328 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 329 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 330 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 331 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 332 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 333 | 0% | 96% | |
| 334 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 335 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 336 | 1.1% | 94% | |
| 337 | 0.3% | 93% | |
| 338 | 2% | 93% | |
| 339 | 4% | 91% | |
| 340 | 0.9% | 87% | |
| 341 | 3% | 86% | |
| 342 | 4% | 83% | |
| 343 | 1.3% | 79% | |
| 344 | 1.4% | 78% | |
| 345 | 2% | 77% | |
| 346 | 0.8% | 74% | |
| 347 | 3% | 74% | |
| 348 | 2% | 70% | |
| 349 | 0.2% | 69% | |
| 350 | 5% | 68% | |
| 351 | 0.2% | 63% | |
| 352 | 2% | 63% | |
| 353 | 1.3% | 61% | |
| 354 | 14% | 60% | Median |
| 355 | 5% | 45% | |
| 356 | 2% | 41% | |
| 357 | 0.7% | 39% | |
| 358 | 0.7% | 38% | |
| 359 | 1.4% | 37% | |
| 360 | 2% | 36% | |
| 361 | 7% | 34% | |
| 362 | 3% | 27% | |
| 363 | 3% | 24% | |
| 364 | 0.3% | 20% | |
| 365 | 2% | 20% | |
| 366 | 0.5% | 18% | |
| 367 | 1.3% | 17% | |
| 368 | 0.2% | 16% | |
| 369 | 2% | 16% | |
| 370 | 0.4% | 13% | |
| 371 | 0.9% | 13% | |
| 372 | 2% | 12% | |
| 373 | 0.7% | 10% | |
| 374 | 2% | 9% | |
| 375 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 376 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 377 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 378 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 379 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 380 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 381 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 382 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 383 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 384 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 385 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 386 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 387 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 388 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 389 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 390 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 250 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 251 | 0% | 100% | |
| 252 | 0% | 100% | |
| 253 | 0% | 100% | |
| 254 | 0% | 100% | |
| 255 | 0% | 100% | |
| 256 | 0% | 100% | |
| 257 | 0% | 100% | |
| 258 | 0% | 100% | |
| 259 | 0% | 100% | |
| 260 | 0% | 100% | |
| 261 | 0% | 100% | |
| 262 | 0% | 100% | |
| 263 | 0% | 100% | |
| 264 | 0% | 100% | |
| 265 | 0% | 100% | |
| 266 | 0% | 100% | |
| 267 | 0% | 100% | |
| 268 | 0% | 100% | |
| 269 | 0% | 100% | |
| 270 | 0% | 100% | |
| 271 | 0% | 100% | |
| 272 | 0% | 100% | |
| 273 | 0% | 100% | |
| 274 | 0% | 100% | |
| 275 | 0% | 100% | |
| 276 | 0% | 100% | |
| 277 | 0% | 100% | |
| 278 | 0% | 100% | |
| 279 | 0% | 100% | |
| 280 | 0% | 100% | |
| 281 | 0% | 100% | |
| 282 | 0% | 100% | |
| 283 | 0% | 100% | |
| 284 | 0% | 100% | |
| 285 | 0% | 100% | |
| 286 | 0% | 100% | |
| 287 | 0% | 100% | |
| 288 | 0% | 100% | |
| 289 | 0% | 100% | |
| 290 | 0% | 100% | |
| 291 | 0% | 100% | |
| 292 | 0% | 100% | |
| 293 | 0% | 100% | |
| 294 | 0% | 100% | |
| 295 | 0% | 100% | |
| 296 | 0% | 100% | |
| 297 | 0% | 100% | |
| 298 | 0% | 100% | |
| 299 | 0% | 100% | |
| 300 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 301 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 302 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 303 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 304 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 305 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 306 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 307 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 308 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 309 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 310 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 311 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 312 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 313 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 314 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 315 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 316 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 317 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 318 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 319 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 320 | 0.1% | 98.7% | |
| 321 | 0.6% | 98.6% | |
| 322 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 323 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 324 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 325 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 326 | 0.8% | 97% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 328 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 329 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 330 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 331 | 1.0% | 94% | |
| 332 | 0.6% | 93% | |
| 333 | 2% | 92% | |
| 334 | 4% | 91% | |
| 335 | 0.9% | 87% | |
| 336 | 3% | 86% | |
| 337 | 4% | 83% | |
| 338 | 1.2% | 79% | |
| 339 | 2% | 78% | |
| 340 | 2% | 76% | |
| 341 | 1.2% | 74% | |
| 342 | 3% | 73% | |
| 343 | 2% | 70% | |
| 344 | 0.8% | 68% | |
| 345 | 4% | 68% | |
| 346 | 1.0% | 63% | |
| 347 | 2% | 62% | |
| 348 | 2% | 60% | |
| 349 | 14% | 58% | Median |
| 350 | 4% | 44% | |
| 351 | 1.4% | 40% | |
| 352 | 0.7% | 39% | |
| 353 | 0.6% | 38% | |
| 354 | 2% | 37% | |
| 355 | 3% | 36% | |
| 356 | 5% | 33% | |
| 357 | 3% | 27% | |
| 358 | 3% | 24% | |
| 359 | 0.8% | 20% | |
| 360 | 2% | 20% | |
| 361 | 0.5% | 18% | |
| 362 | 1.3% | 17% | |
| 363 | 0.6% | 16% | |
| 364 | 1.1% | 15% | |
| 365 | 1.2% | 14% | |
| 366 | 0.8% | 13% | |
| 367 | 2% | 12% | |
| 368 | 1.0% | 10% | |
| 369 | 1.4% | 9% | |
| 370 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 371 | 1.5% | 7% | |
| 372 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 373 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 374 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 375 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 376 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 377 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 378 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 379 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 380 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 381 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 382 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 383 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 384 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 385 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 279 | 0% | 100% | |
| 280 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 281 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 282 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 283 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 284 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 285 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 286 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 287 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 288 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 289 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 290 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 291 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 292 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 293 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 294 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 295 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 296 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 297 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 298 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 299 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 300 | 0.9% | 94% | |
| 301 | 0.8% | 93% | |
| 302 | 2% | 92% | |
| 303 | 1.3% | 90% | |
| 304 | 0.4% | 89% | |
| 305 | 0.7% | 89% | |
| 306 | 2% | 88% | |
| 307 | 0.9% | 86% | |
| 308 | 0.6% | 85% | |
| 309 | 2% | 85% | |
| 310 | 0.3% | 83% | |
| 311 | 2% | 82% | |
| 312 | 0.9% | 81% | |
| 313 | 5% | 80% | |
| 314 | 0.4% | 75% | |
| 315 | 0.8% | 75% | |
| 316 | 2% | 74% | |
| 317 | 1.1% | 72% | |
| 318 | 2% | 71% | |
| 319 | 2% | 69% | |
| 320 | 2% | 67% | |
| 321 | 2% | 65% | |
| 322 | 3% | 64% | |
| 323 | 3% | 60% | |
| 324 | 9% | 57% | |
| 325 | 3% | 48% | Median |
| 326 | 1.4% | 46% | Majority |
| 327 | 1.5% | 44% | |
| 328 | 2% | 43% | |
| 329 | 1.2% | 41% | |
| 330 | 0.8% | 40% | |
| 331 | 6% | 39% | |
| 332 | 2% | 33% | |
| 333 | 2% | 30% | |
| 334 | 1.0% | 29% | |
| 335 | 2% | 28% | |
| 336 | 2% | 26% | |
| 337 | 2% | 24% | |
| 338 | 1.4% | 22% | |
| 339 | 2% | 20% | |
| 340 | 0.2% | 18% | |
| 341 | 1.1% | 18% | |
| 342 | 0.7% | 17% | |
| 343 | 1.3% | 16% | |
| 344 | 3% | 15% | |
| 345 | 3% | 11% | |
| 346 | 1.4% | 9% | |
| 347 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 348 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 349 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 350 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 351 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 352 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 353 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 354 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 355 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 356 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 357 | 0% | 2% | |
| 358 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 359 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 360 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 361 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 362 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 363 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 364 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 365 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 366 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 367 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 368 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 369 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 370 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 371 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 372 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 373 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 374 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 375 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 376 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 377 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 378 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 379 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 380 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 381 | 0% | 0% | |
| 382 | 0% | 0% | |
| 383 | 0% | 0% | |
| 384 | 0% | 0% | |
| 385 | 0% | 0% | |
| 386 | 0% | 0% | |
| 387 | 0% | 0% | |
| 388 | 0% | 0% | |
| 389 | 0% | 0% | |
| 390 | 0% | 0% | |
| 391 | 0% | 0% | |
| 392 | 0% | 0% | |
| 393 | 0% | 0% | |
| 394 | 0% | 0% | |
| 395 | 0% | 0% | |
| 396 | 0% | 0% | |
| 397 | 0% | 0% | |
| 398 | 0% | 0% | |
| 399 | 0% | 0% | |
| 400 | 0% | 0% | |
| 401 | 0% | 0% | |
| 402 | 0% | 0% | |
| 403 | 0% | 0% | |
| 404 | 0% | 0% | |
| 405 | 0% | 0% | |
| 406 | 0% | 0% | |
| 407 | 0% | 0% | |
| 408 | 0% | 0% | |
| 409 | 0% | 0% | |
| 410 | 0% | 0% | |
| 411 | 0% | 0% | |
| 412 | 0% | 0% | |
| 413 | 0% | 0% | |
| 414 | 0% | 0% | |
| 415 | 0% | 0% | |
| 416 | 0% | 0% | |
| 417 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 274 | 0% | 100% | |
| 275 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 276 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 277 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 278 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 279 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 280 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 281 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 282 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 283 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 284 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 285 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 286 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 287 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 288 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 289 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 290 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 291 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 292 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 293 | 0.6% | 95% | |
| 294 | 0.7% | 94% | |
| 295 | 0.7% | 94% | |
| 296 | 1.3% | 93% | |
| 297 | 1.4% | 92% | |
| 298 | 1.2% | 90% | |
| 299 | 0.3% | 89% | |
| 300 | 0.9% | 89% | |
| 301 | 0.9% | 88% | |
| 302 | 2% | 87% | |
| 303 | 0.7% | 85% | |
| 304 | 2% | 85% | |
| 305 | 0.2% | 82% | |
| 306 | 2% | 82% | |
| 307 | 0.9% | 80% | |
| 308 | 5% | 79% | |
| 309 | 0.4% | 75% | |
| 310 | 1.1% | 74% | |
| 311 | 2% | 73% | |
| 312 | 0.9% | 71% | |
| 313 | 2% | 70% | |
| 314 | 2% | 69% | |
| 315 | 2% | 67% | |
| 316 | 1.0% | 64% | |
| 317 | 3% | 63% | |
| 318 | 4% | 61% | |
| 319 | 9% | 57% | |
| 320 | 3% | 48% | Median |
| 321 | 2% | 45% | |
| 322 | 1.4% | 44% | |
| 323 | 2% | 42% | |
| 324 | 0.8% | 40% | |
| 325 | 1.4% | 40% | |
| 326 | 6% | 38% | Majority |
| 327 | 3% | 33% | |
| 328 | 1.2% | 30% | |
| 329 | 1.0% | 29% | |
| 330 | 2% | 28% | |
| 331 | 3% | 26% | |
| 332 | 2% | 23% | |
| 333 | 1.1% | 21% | |
| 334 | 2% | 20% | |
| 335 | 0.3% | 18% | |
| 336 | 1.2% | 17% | |
| 337 | 0.4% | 16% | |
| 338 | 1.2% | 16% | |
| 339 | 4% | 15% | |
| 340 | 2% | 11% | |
| 341 | 2% | 9% | |
| 342 | 0.5% | 7% | |
| 343 | 0.8% | 6% | |
| 344 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 345 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 346 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 347 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 348 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 349 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 350 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 351 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 352 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 353 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 354 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 355 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 356 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 357 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 358 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 359 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 360 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 361 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 362 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 363 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 364 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 365 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 366 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 367 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 368 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 369 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 370 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 371 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 372 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 373 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 374 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 375 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 376 | 0% | 0% | |
| 377 | 0% | 0% | |
| 378 | 0% | 0% | |
| 379 | 0% | 0% | |
| 380 | 0% | 0% | |
| 381 | 0% | 0% | |
| 382 | 0% | 0% | |
| 383 | 0% | 0% | |
| 384 | 0% | 0% | |
| 385 | 0% | 0% | |
| 386 | 0% | 0% | |
| 387 | 0% | 0% | |
| 388 | 0% | 0% | |
| 389 | 0% | 0% | |
| 390 | 0% | 0% | |
| 391 | 0% | 0% | |
| 392 | 0% | 0% | |
| 393 | 0% | 0% | |
| 394 | 0% | 0% | |
| 395 | 0% | 0% | |
| 396 | 0% | 0% | |
| 397 | 0% | 0% | |
| 398 | 0% | 0% | |
| 399 | 0% | 0% | |
| 400 | 0% | 0% | |
| 401 | 0% | 0% | |
| 402 | 0% | 0% | |
| 403 | 0% | 0% | |
| 404 | 0% | 0% | |
| 405 | 0% | 0% | |
| 406 | 0% | 0% | |
| 407 | 0% | 0% | |
| 408 | 0% | 0% | |
| 409 | 0% | 0% | |
| 410 | 0% | 0% | |
| 411 | 0% | 0% | |
| 412 | 0% | 0% | |
| 413 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 217 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 218 | 0% | 100% | |
| 219 | 0% | 100% | |
| 220 | 0% | 100% | |
| 221 | 0% | 100% | |
| 222 | 0% | 100% | |
| 223 | 0% | 100% | |
| 224 | 0% | 100% | |
| 225 | 0% | 100% | |
| 226 | 0% | 100% | |
| 227 | 0% | 100% | |
| 228 | 0% | 100% | |
| 229 | 0% | 100% | |
| 230 | 0% | 100% | |
| 231 | 0% | 100% | |
| 232 | 0% | 100% | |
| 233 | 0% | 100% | |
| 234 | 0% | 100% | |
| 235 | 0% | 100% | |
| 236 | 0% | 100% | |
| 237 | 0% | 100% | |
| 238 | 0% | 100% | |
| 239 | 0% | 100% | |
| 240 | 0% | 100% | |
| 241 | 0% | 100% | |
| 242 | 0% | 100% | |
| 243 | 0% | 100% | |
| 244 | 0% | 100% | |
| 245 | 0% | 100% | |
| 246 | 0% | 100% | |
| 247 | 0% | 100% | |
| 248 | 0% | 100% | |
| 249 | 0% | 100% | |
| 250 | 0% | 100% | |
| 251 | 0% | 100% | |
| 252 | 0% | 100% | |
| 253 | 0% | 100% | |
| 254 | 0% | 100% | |
| 255 | 0% | 100% | |
| 256 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 257 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 258 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 259 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 260 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 261 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 262 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 263 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 264 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 265 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 266 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 267 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 268 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 269 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 270 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 271 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 272 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 273 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 274 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 275 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 276 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 277 | 0.4% | 98.7% | |
| 278 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 279 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 280 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 281 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 282 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 283 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 284 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 285 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 286 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 287 | 0.8% | 94% | |
| 288 | 0.5% | 94% | |
| 289 | 2% | 93% | |
| 290 | 2% | 91% | |
| 291 | 4% | 89% | |
| 292 | 1.2% | 85% | |
| 293 | 0.4% | 84% | |
| 294 | 1.2% | 84% | |
| 295 | 0.3% | 83% | |
| 296 | 2% | 82% | |
| 297 | 1.1% | 80% | |
| 298 | 2% | 79% | |
| 299 | 3% | 77% | |
| 300 | 2% | 74% | |
| 301 | 1.0% | 72% | |
| 302 | 1.2% | 71% | |
| 303 | 3% | 70% | |
| 304 | 6% | 67% | |
| 305 | 1.4% | 62% | |
| 306 | 0.8% | 60% | |
| 307 | 2% | 60% | |
| 308 | 1.4% | 58% | Median |
| 309 | 2% | 56% | |
| 310 | 3% | 55% | |
| 311 | 9% | 51% | |
| 312 | 4% | 43% | |
| 313 | 3% | 39% | |
| 314 | 2% | 36% | |
| 315 | 2% | 35% | |
| 316 | 2% | 33% | |
| 317 | 1.4% | 31% | |
| 318 | 2% | 29% | |
| 319 | 0.7% | 27% | |
| 320 | 1.1% | 27% | |
| 321 | 5% | 25% | |
| 322 | 0.8% | 21% | |
| 323 | 2% | 20% | |
| 324 | 0.1% | 18% | |
| 325 | 2% | 18% | |
| 326 | 1.0% | 16% | Majority |
| 327 | 1.4% | 15% | |
| 328 | 1.1% | 13% | |
| 329 | 1.0% | 12% | |
| 330 | 0.2% | 11% | |
| 331 | 1.1% | 11% | |
| 332 | 2% | 10% | |
| 333 | 1.3% | 8% | |
| 334 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 335 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 336 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 337 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 338 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 339 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 340 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 341 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 342 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 343 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 344 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 345 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 346 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 347 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 348 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 349 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 350 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 351 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 352 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 353 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 354 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 355 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 356 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 213 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 214 | 0% | 100% | |
| 215 | 0% | 100% | |
| 216 | 0% | 100% | |
| 217 | 0% | 100% | |
| 218 | 0% | 100% | |
| 219 | 0% | 100% | |
| 220 | 0% | 100% | |
| 221 | 0% | 100% | |
| 222 | 0% | 100% | |
| 223 | 0% | 100% | |
| 224 | 0% | 100% | |
| 225 | 0% | 100% | |
| 226 | 0% | 100% | |
| 227 | 0% | 100% | |
| 228 | 0% | 100% | |
| 229 | 0% | 100% | |
| 230 | 0% | 100% | |
| 231 | 0% | 100% | |
| 232 | 0% | 100% | |
| 233 | 0% | 100% | |
| 234 | 0% | 100% | |
| 235 | 0% | 100% | |
| 236 | 0% | 100% | |
| 237 | 0% | 100% | |
| 238 | 0% | 100% | |
| 239 | 0% | 100% | |
| 240 | 0% | 100% | |
| 241 | 0% | 100% | |
| 242 | 0% | 100% | |
| 243 | 0% | 100% | |
| 244 | 0% | 100% | |
| 245 | 0% | 100% | |
| 246 | 0% | 100% | |
| 247 | 0% | 100% | |
| 248 | 0% | 100% | |
| 249 | 0% | 100% | |
| 250 | 0% | 100% | |
| 251 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 252 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 253 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 254 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 255 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 256 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 257 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 258 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 259 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 260 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 261 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 262 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 263 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 264 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 265 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 266 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 267 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 268 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 269 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 270 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 271 | 0.1% | 98.7% | |
| 272 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 273 | 0% | 98% | |
| 274 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 275 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 276 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 277 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 278 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 279 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 280 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 281 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 282 | 0.7% | 94% | |
| 283 | 0.7% | 93% | |
| 284 | 1.4% | 93% | |
| 285 | 3% | 91% | |
| 286 | 3% | 89% | |
| 287 | 1.3% | 85% | |
| 288 | 0.7% | 84% | |
| 289 | 1.1% | 83% | |
| 290 | 0.2% | 82% | |
| 291 | 2% | 82% | |
| 292 | 1.4% | 80% | |
| 293 | 2% | 78% | |
| 294 | 2% | 76% | |
| 295 | 2% | 74% | |
| 296 | 1.0% | 72% | |
| 297 | 2% | 71% | |
| 298 | 2% | 70% | |
| 299 | 6% | 67% | |
| 300 | 0.8% | 61% | |
| 301 | 1.2% | 60% | |
| 302 | 2% | 59% | |
| 303 | 1.5% | 57% | Median |
| 304 | 2% | 56% | |
| 305 | 3% | 54% | |
| 306 | 9% | 51% | |
| 307 | 3% | 43% | |
| 308 | 4% | 40% | |
| 309 | 2% | 36% | |
| 310 | 2% | 34% | |
| 311 | 3% | 32% | |
| 312 | 1.5% | 30% | |
| 313 | 1.1% | 28% | |
| 314 | 1.3% | 27% | |
| 315 | 0.6% | 26% | |
| 316 | 5% | 25% | |
| 317 | 0.8% | 20% | |
| 318 | 2% | 20% | |
| 319 | 0.3% | 18% | |
| 320 | 2% | 17% | |
| 321 | 0.9% | 16% | |
| 322 | 0.8% | 15% | |
| 323 | 2% | 14% | |
| 324 | 0.8% | 12% | |
| 325 | 0.3% | 11% | |
| 326 | 1.1% | 11% | Majority |
| 327 | 2% | 10% | |
| 328 | 0.8% | 8% | |
| 329 | 0.9% | 7% | |
| 330 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 331 | 0.5% | 6% | |
| 332 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 333 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 334 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 335 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 336 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 337 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 338 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 339 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 340 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 341 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 342 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 343 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 344 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 345 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 346 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 347 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 348 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 349 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 350 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 351 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 206 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 207 | 0% | 100% | |
| 208 | 0% | 100% | |
| 209 | 0% | 100% | |
| 210 | 0% | 100% | |
| 211 | 0% | 100% | |
| 212 | 0% | 100% | |
| 213 | 0% | 100% | |
| 214 | 0% | 100% | |
| 215 | 0% | 100% | |
| 216 | 0% | 100% | |
| 217 | 0% | 100% | |
| 218 | 0% | 100% | |
| 219 | 0% | 100% | |
| 220 | 0% | 100% | |
| 221 | 0% | 100% | |
| 222 | 0% | 100% | |
| 223 | 0% | 100% | |
| 224 | 0% | 100% | |
| 225 | 0% | 100% | |
| 226 | 0% | 100% | |
| 227 | 0% | 100% | |
| 228 | 0% | 100% | |
| 229 | 0% | 100% | |
| 230 | 0% | 100% | |
| 231 | 0% | 100% | |
| 232 | 0% | 100% | |
| 233 | 0% | 100% | |
| 234 | 0% | 100% | |
| 235 | 0% | 100% | |
| 236 | 0% | 100% | |
| 237 | 0% | 100% | |
| 238 | 0% | 100% | |
| 239 | 0% | 100% | |
| 240 | 0% | 100% | |
| 241 | 0% | 100% | |
| 242 | 0% | 100% | |
| 243 | 0% | 100% | |
| 244 | 0% | 100% | |
| 245 | 0% | 100% | |
| 246 | 0% | 100% | |
| 247 | 0% | 100% | |
| 248 | 0% | 100% | |
| 249 | 0% | 100% | |
| 250 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 251 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 252 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 253 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 254 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 255 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 256 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 257 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 258 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 259 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 260 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 261 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 262 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 263 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 264 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 265 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 266 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 267 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 268 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 269 | 0.3% | 98.7% | |
| 270 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 271 | 0% | 98% | |
| 272 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 273 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 274 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 275 | 0% | 96% | |
| 276 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 277 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 278 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 279 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 280 | 2% | 94% | |
| 281 | 4% | 92% | |
| 282 | 1.0% | 88% | |
| 283 | 3% | 87% | |
| 284 | 4% | 84% | |
| 285 | 2% | 80% | |
| 286 | 0.4% | 79% | |
| 287 | 1.1% | 78% | |
| 288 | 2% | 77% | |
| 289 | 4% | 76% | |
| 290 | 0.9% | 72% | |
| 291 | 0.1% | 71% | |
| 292 | 5% | 71% | |
| 293 | 1.2% | 66% | |
| 294 | 2% | 65% | |
| 295 | 0.9% | 63% | |
| 296 | 12% | 62% | Median |
| 297 | 8% | 51% | |
| 298 | 2% | 42% | |
| 299 | 0.8% | 40% | |
| 300 | 0.6% | 39% | |
| 301 | 2% | 39% | |
| 302 | 1.2% | 37% | |
| 303 | 6% | 36% | |
| 304 | 5% | 30% | |
| 305 | 4% | 25% | |
| 306 | 0.4% | 22% | |
| 307 | 2% | 21% | |
| 308 | 1.0% | 19% | |
| 309 | 1.3% | 18% | |
| 310 | 0.3% | 16% | |
| 311 | 2% | 16% | |
| 312 | 0.1% | 14% | |
| 313 | 1.0% | 14% | |
| 314 | 3% | 13% | |
| 315 | 0.3% | 11% | |
| 316 | 2% | 10% | |
| 317 | 0.4% | 9% | |
| 318 | 2% | 8% | |
| 319 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 320 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 321 | 2% | 6% | |
| 322 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 323 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 324 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 325 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 326 | 0.2% | 0.9% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 328 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 329 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 330 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 331 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 332 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 333 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 334 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 335 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 202 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 203 | 0% | 100% | |
| 204 | 0% | 100% | |
| 205 | 0% | 100% | |
| 206 | 0% | 100% | |
| 207 | 0% | 100% | |
| 208 | 0% | 100% | |
| 209 | 0% | 100% | |
| 210 | 0% | 100% | |
| 211 | 0% | 100% | |
| 212 | 0% | 100% | |
| 213 | 0% | 100% | |
| 214 | 0% | 100% | |
| 215 | 0% | 100% | |
| 216 | 0% | 100% | |
| 217 | 0% | 100% | |
| 218 | 0% | 100% | |
| 219 | 0% | 100% | |
| 220 | 0% | 100% | |
| 221 | 0% | 100% | |
| 222 | 0% | 100% | |
| 223 | 0% | 100% | |
| 224 | 0% | 100% | |
| 225 | 0% | 100% | |
| 226 | 0% | 100% | |
| 227 | 0% | 100% | |
| 228 | 0% | 100% | |
| 229 | 0% | 100% | |
| 230 | 0% | 100% | |
| 231 | 0% | 100% | |
| 232 | 0% | 100% | |
| 233 | 0% | 100% | |
| 234 | 0% | 100% | |
| 235 | 0% | 100% | |
| 236 | 0% | 100% | |
| 237 | 0% | 100% | |
| 238 | 0% | 100% | |
| 239 | 0% | 100% | |
| 240 | 0% | 100% | |
| 241 | 0% | 100% | |
| 242 | 0% | 100% | |
| 243 | 0% | 100% | |
| 244 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 245 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 246 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 247 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 248 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 249 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 250 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 251 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 252 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 253 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 254 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 255 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 256 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 257 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 258 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 259 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 260 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 261 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 262 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 263 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 264 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 265 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 266 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 267 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 268 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 269 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 270 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 271 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 272 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 273 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 274 | 0.5% | 94% | |
| 275 | 2% | 94% | |
| 276 | 4% | 92% | |
| 277 | 1.1% | 88% | |
| 278 | 3% | 87% | |
| 279 | 4% | 84% | |
| 280 | 2% | 80% | |
| 281 | 0.6% | 78% | |
| 282 | 1.1% | 78% | |
| 283 | 2% | 77% | |
| 284 | 3% | 75% | |
| 285 | 1.1% | 72% | |
| 286 | 1.0% | 71% | |
| 287 | 4% | 70% | |
| 288 | 1.4% | 66% | |
| 289 | 1.5% | 64% | |
| 290 | 2% | 63% | |
| 291 | 11% | 61% | Median |
| 292 | 8% | 50% | |
| 293 | 2% | 41% | |
| 294 | 0.3% | 39% | |
| 295 | 0.5% | 39% | |
| 296 | 1.2% | 39% | |
| 297 | 3% | 37% | |
| 298 | 6% | 35% | |
| 299 | 4% | 29% | |
| 300 | 3% | 25% | |
| 301 | 0.7% | 22% | |
| 302 | 2% | 21% | |
| 303 | 1.1% | 19% | |
| 304 | 1.4% | 18% | |
| 305 | 0.3% | 16% | |
| 306 | 0.9% | 16% | |
| 307 | 1.0% | 15% | |
| 308 | 0.8% | 14% | |
| 309 | 2% | 13% | |
| 310 | 1.0% | 11% | |
| 311 | 1.2% | 10% | |
| 312 | 0.7% | 9% | |
| 313 | 2% | 8% | |
| 314 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 315 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 316 | 2% | 6% | |
| 317 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 318 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 319 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 320 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 321 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 322 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 323 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 324 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 325 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 326 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 327 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 328 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 329 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 330 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 240 | 0% | 100% | |
| 241 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 242 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 243 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 244 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 245 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 246 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 247 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 248 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 249 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 250 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 251 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 252 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 253 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 254 | 0.3% | 93% | |
| 255 | 1.4% | 93% | |
| 256 | 0.6% | 91% | |
| 257 | 3% | 91% | |
| 258 | 0.6% | 88% | |
| 259 | 0.8% | 87% | |
| 260 | 2% | 87% | |
| 261 | 0.2% | 84% | |
| 262 | 1.2% | 84% | |
| 263 | 0.7% | 83% | |
| 264 | 2% | 82% | |
| 265 | 1.0% | 81% | |
| 266 | 1.4% | 80% | |
| 267 | 5% | 78% | |
| 268 | 5% | 73% | |
| 269 | 3% | 69% | |
| 270 | 2% | 66% | |
| 271 | 2% | 64% | |
| 272 | 0.6% | 62% | |
| 273 | 1.3% | 62% | |
| 274 | 2% | 60% | Median |
| 275 | 5% | 59% | |
| 276 | 14% | 54% | |
| 277 | 1.2% | 40% | |
| 278 | 2% | 39% | |
| 279 | 0.2% | 37% | |
| 280 | 5% | 37% | |
| 281 | 0.2% | 32% | |
| 282 | 2% | 31% | |
| 283 | 3% | 30% | |
| 284 | 0.8% | 26% | |
| 285 | 2% | 26% | |
| 286 | 1.4% | 23% | |
| 287 | 1.3% | 22% | |
| 288 | 4% | 21% | |
| 289 | 3% | 17% | |
| 290 | 0.9% | 14% | |
| 291 | 4% | 13% | |
| 292 | 2% | 9% | |
| 293 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 294 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 295 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 296 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 297 | 0% | 4% | |
| 298 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 299 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 300 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 301 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 302 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 303 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 304 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 305 | 0% | 1.3% | |
| 306 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 307 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 308 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 309 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 310 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 311 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 312 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 313 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 314 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 315 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 316 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 317 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 318 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 319 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 320 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 321 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 322 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 323 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 324 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 325 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 326 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 327 | 0% | 0% | |
| 328 | 0% | 0% | |
| 329 | 0% | 0% | |
| 330 | 0% | 0% | |
| 331 | 0% | 0% | |
| 332 | 0% | 0% | |
| 333 | 0% | 0% | |
| 334 | 0% | 0% | |
| 335 | 0% | 0% | |
| 336 | 0% | 0% | |
| 337 | 0% | 0% | |
| 338 | 0% | 0% | |
| 339 | 0% | 0% | |
| 340 | 0% | 0% | |
| 341 | 0% | 0% | |
| 342 | 0% | 0% | |
| 343 | 0% | 0% | |
| 344 | 0% | 0% | |
| 345 | 0% | 0% | |
| 346 | 0% | 0% | |
| 347 | 0% | 0% | |
| 348 | 0% | 0% | |
| 349 | 0% | 0% | |
| 350 | 0% | 0% | |
| 351 | 0% | 0% | |
| 352 | 0% | 0% | |
| 353 | 0% | 0% | |
| 354 | 0% | 0% | |
| 355 | 0% | 0% | |
| 356 | 0% | 0% | |
| 357 | 0% | 0% | |
| 358 | 0% | 0% | |
| 359 | 0% | 0% | |
| 360 | 0% | 0% | |
| 361 | 0% | 0% | |
| 362 | 0% | 0% | |
| 363 | 0% | 0% | |
| 364 | 0% | 0% | |
| 365 | 0% | 0% | |
| 366 | 0% | 0% | |
| 367 | 0% | 0% | |
| 368 | 0% | 0% | |
| 369 | 0% | 0% | |
| 370 | 0% | 0% | |
| 371 | 0% | 0% | |
| 372 | 0% | 0% | |
| 373 | 0% | 0% | |
| 374 | 0% | 0% | |
| 375 | 0% | 0% | |
| 376 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 224 | 0% | 100% | |
| 225 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 226 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 227 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 228 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 229 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 230 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 231 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 232 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 233 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 234 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 235 | 0.2% | 98.7% | |
| 236 | 1.1% | 98.5% | |
| 237 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 238 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 239 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 240 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 241 | 0.6% | 95% | |
| 242 | 0.7% | 94% | |
| 243 | 0.9% | 93% | |
| 244 | 1.4% | 93% | |
| 245 | 0.9% | 91% | |
| 246 | 0.3% | 90% | |
| 247 | 0.5% | 90% | |
| 248 | 2% | 89% | |
| 249 | 0.8% | 88% | |
| 250 | 1.2% | 87% | |
| 251 | 2% | 86% | |
| 252 | 0.4% | 84% | |
| 253 | 2% | 84% | |
| 254 | 0.6% | 82% | |
| 255 | 6% | 81% | |
| 256 | 0.3% | 76% | |
| 257 | 0.9% | 75% | |
| 258 | 1.4% | 74% | |
| 259 | 1.3% | 73% | |
| 260 | 2% | 72% | |
| 261 | 1.1% | 70% | |
| 262 | 1.4% | 69% | |
| 263 | 2% | 67% | |
| 264 | 2% | 66% | |
| 265 | 4% | 63% | |
| 266 | 9% | 59% | |
| 267 | 4% | 51% | Median |
| 268 | 1.2% | 47% | |
| 269 | 1.3% | 46% | |
| 270 | 2% | 45% | |
| 271 | 1.2% | 43% | |
| 272 | 0.9% | 42% | |
| 273 | 4% | 41% | |
| 274 | 5% | 37% | |
| 275 | 1.1% | 32% | |
| 276 | 2% | 30% | |
| 277 | 1.0% | 29% | |
| 278 | 3% | 28% | |
| 279 | 2% | 25% | |
| 280 | 1.4% | 23% | |
| 281 | 2% | 21% | |
| 282 | 0.3% | 19% | |
| 283 | 2% | 18% | |
| 284 | 0.8% | 17% | |
| 285 | 1.3% | 16% | |
| 286 | 3% | 15% | |
| 287 | 3% | 12% | |
| 288 | 1.4% | 9% | |
| 289 | 0.7% | 8% | |
| 290 | 0.8% | 7% | |
| 291 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 292 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 293 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 294 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 295 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 296 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 297 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 298 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 299 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 300 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 301 | 0.1% | 1.5% | |
| 302 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 303 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 304 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 305 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 306 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 307 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 308 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 309 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 310 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 311 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 312 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 313 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 314 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 315 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 316 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 317 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 318 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 319 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 320 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 321 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 322 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 323 | 0% | 0% | |
| 324 | 0% | 0% | |
| 325 | 0% | 0% | |
| 326 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 327 | 0% | 0% | |
| 328 | 0% | 0% | |
| 329 | 0% | 0% | |
| 330 | 0% | 0% | |
| 331 | 0% | 0% | |
| 332 | 0% | 0% | |
| 333 | 0% | 0% | |
| 334 | 0% | 0% | |
| 335 | 0% | 0% | |
| 336 | 0% | 0% | |
| 337 | 0% | 0% | |
| 338 | 0% | 0% | |
| 339 | 0% | 0% | |
| 340 | 0% | 0% | |
| 341 | 0% | 0% | |
| 342 | 0% | 0% | |
| 343 | 0% | 0% | |
| 344 | 0% | 0% | |
| 345 | 0% | 0% | |
| 346 | 0% | 0% | |
| 347 | 0% | 0% | |
| 348 | 0% | 0% | |
| 349 | 0% | 0% | |
| 350 | 0% | 0% | |
| 351 | 0% | 0% | |
| 352 | 0% | 0% | |
| 353 | 0% | 0% | |
| 354 | 0% | 0% | |
| 355 | 0% | 0% | |
| 356 | 0% | 0% | |
| 357 | 0% | 0% | |
| 358 | 0% | 0% | |
| 359 | 0% | 0% | |
| 360 | 0% | 0% | |
| 361 | 0% | 0% | |
| 362 | 0% | 0% | |
| 363 | 0% | 0% | |
| 364 | 0% | 0% | |
| 365 | 0% | 0% | |
| 366 | 0% | 0% | |
| 367 | 0% | 0% | |
| 368 | 0% | 0% | |
| 369 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Conservative Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 219 | 0% | 100% | |
| 220 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 221 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 222 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 223 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 224 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 225 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 226 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 227 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 228 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 229 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 230 | 0.3% | 98.7% | |
| 231 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 232 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 233 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 234 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 235 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 236 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 237 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 238 | 1.0% | 93% | |
| 239 | 1.4% | 92% | |
| 240 | 0.9% | 91% | |
| 241 | 0.2% | 90% | |
| 242 | 0.8% | 90% | |
| 243 | 1.3% | 89% | |
| 244 | 1.2% | 88% | |
| 245 | 1.0% | 87% | |
| 246 | 2% | 86% | |
| 247 | 0.4% | 84% | |
| 248 | 2% | 84% | |
| 249 | 1.0% | 82% | |
| 250 | 5% | 81% | |
| 251 | 0.3% | 76% | |
| 252 | 0.7% | 75% | |
| 253 | 2% | 74% | |
| 254 | 1.3% | 72% | |
| 255 | 2% | 71% | |
| 256 | 1.3% | 69% | |
| 257 | 2% | 68% | |
| 258 | 1.1% | 67% | |
| 259 | 2% | 66% | |
| 260 | 4% | 63% | |
| 261 | 9% | 59% | |
| 262 | 3% | 51% | Median |
| 263 | 2% | 47% | |
| 264 | 1.2% | 46% | |
| 265 | 2% | 44% | |
| 266 | 0.9% | 42% | |
| 267 | 1.4% | 41% | |
| 268 | 3% | 40% | |
| 269 | 6% | 37% | |
| 270 | 1.2% | 31% | |
| 271 | 1.3% | 30% | |
| 272 | 1.1% | 29% | |
| 273 | 3% | 27% | |
| 274 | 2% | 24% | |
| 275 | 1.0% | 22% | |
| 276 | 3% | 21% | |
| 277 | 0.5% | 19% | |
| 278 | 2% | 18% | |
| 279 | 0.5% | 17% | |
| 280 | 1.2% | 16% | |
| 281 | 4% | 15% | |
| 282 | 2% | 11% | |
| 283 | 2% | 9% | |
| 284 | 0.6% | 7% | |
| 285 | 0.9% | 7% | |
| 286 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 287 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 288 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 289 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 290 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 291 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 292 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 293 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 294 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 295 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 296 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 297 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 298 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 299 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 300 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 301 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 302 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 303 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 304 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 305 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 306 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 307 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 308 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 309 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 310 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 311 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 312 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 313 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 314 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 315 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 316 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 317 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 318 | 0% | 0% | |
| 319 | 0% | 0% | |
| 320 | 0% | 0% | |
| 321 | 0% | 0% | |
| 322 | 0% | 0% | |
| 323 | 0% | 0% | |
| 324 | 0% | 0% | |
| 325 | 0% | 0% | |
| 326 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 327 | 0% | 0% | |
| 328 | 0% | 0% | |
| 329 | 0% | 0% | |
| 330 | 0% | 0% | |
| 331 | 0% | 0% | |
| 332 | 0% | 0% | |
| 333 | 0% | 0% | |
| 334 | 0% | 0% | |
| 335 | 0% | 0% | |
| 336 | 0% | 0% | |
| 337 | 0% | 0% | |
| 338 | 0% | 0% | |
| 339 | 0% | 0% | |
| 340 | 0% | 0% | |
| 341 | 0% | 0% | |
| 342 | 0% | 0% | |
| 343 | 0% | 0% | |
| 344 | 0% | 0% | |
| 345 | 0% | 0% | |
| 346 | 0% | 0% | |
| 347 | 0% | 0% | |
| 348 | 0% | 0% | |
| 349 | 0% | 0% | |
| 350 | 0% | 0% | |
| 351 | 0% | 0% | |
| 352 | 0% | 0% | |
| 353 | 0% | 0% | |
| 354 | 0% | 0% | |
| 355 | 0% | 0% | |
| 356 | 0% | 0% | |
| 357 | 0% | 0% | |
| 358 | 0% | 0% | |
| 359 | 0% | 0% | |
| 360 | 0% | 0% | |
| 361 | 0% | 0% | |
| 362 | 0% | 0% | |
| 363 | 0% | 0% | |
| 364 | 0% | 0% | |
| 365 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 22–26 September 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1091
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.55%