Opinion Poll by Ipsos MORI for Evening Standard, 5–12 October 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 32.1% 48.8% 46.7–50.8% 46.1–51.4% 45.6–51.9% 44.6–52.9%
Conservative Party 43.6% 27.0% 25.2–28.8% 24.7–29.4% 24.2–29.8% 23.4–30.8%
Liberal Democrats 11.5% 10.4% 9.2–11.8% 8.9–12.1% 8.6–12.5% 8.1–13.2%
Green Party 2.8% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.8%
Scottish National Party 3.9% 4.1% 3.4–5.1% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.6% 2.7–6.1%
Brexit Party 2.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 202 393 369–418 363–426 358–436 345–451
Conservative Party 365 159 133–185 123–190 113–197 96–209
Liberal Democrats 11 25 18–36 17–39 15–41 10–49
Green Party 1 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Scottish National Party 48 49 38–57 34–57 32–58 23–58
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Plaid Cymru 4 2 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.8%  
340 0% 99.8%  
341 0% 99.8%  
342 0% 99.7%  
343 0.1% 99.7%  
344 0.1% 99.6%  
345 0.2% 99.6%  
346 0.1% 99.4%  
347 0.1% 99.3%  
348 0.1% 99.2%  
349 0.1% 99.2%  
350 0.2% 99.0%  
351 0.2% 98.8%  
352 0.2% 98.7%  
353 0.2% 98%  
354 0.2% 98%  
355 0.2% 98%  
356 0.1% 98%  
357 0.2% 98%  
358 0.3% 98%  
359 0.3% 97%  
360 0.4% 97%  
361 0.5% 97%  
362 0.5% 96%  
363 0.6% 96%  
364 0.6% 95%  
365 1.1% 94%  
366 1.0% 93%  
367 0.8% 92%  
368 1.0% 91%  
369 0.6% 90%  
370 2% 90%  
371 0.8% 88%  
372 2% 87%  
373 1.0% 86%  
374 2% 85%  
375 2% 83%  
376 0.7% 80%  
377 2% 79%  
378 2% 78%  
379 1.0% 76%  
380 1.3% 75%  
381 2% 74%  
382 2% 72%  
383 2% 70%  
384 0.9% 68%  
385 2% 67%  
386 2% 66%  
387 2% 64%  
388 3% 62%  
389 2% 59%  
390 2% 57%  
391 2% 55%  
392 2% 54%  
393 2% 52% Median
394 3% 50%  
395 3% 47%  
396 2% 44%  
397 3% 43%  
398 3% 40%  
399 2% 37%  
400 2% 35%  
401 2% 33%  
402 2% 31%  
403 2% 29%  
404 2% 27%  
405 3% 26%  
406 1.2% 23%  
407 2% 22%  
408 0.9% 20%  
409 1.0% 19%  
410 2% 18%  
411 0.6% 16%  
412 1.3% 15%  
413 2% 14%  
414 0.9% 13%  
415 0.6% 12%  
416 0.4% 11%  
417 0.4% 11%  
418 1.1% 10%  
419 0.9% 9%  
420 0.3% 8%  
421 0.9% 8%  
422 0.2% 7%  
423 0.7% 7%  
424 0.5% 6%  
425 0.3% 6%  
426 0.6% 5%  
427 0.3% 5%  
428 0.2% 4%  
429 0.2% 4%  
430 0.1% 4%  
431 0.3% 4%  
432 0.1% 4%  
433 0.2% 4%  
434 0.2% 3%  
435 0.5% 3%  
436 0.2% 3%  
437 0.3% 2%  
438 0.2% 2%  
439 0.2% 2%  
440 0.1% 2%  
441 0.3% 2%  
442 0.1% 1.4%  
443 0.1% 1.3%  
444 0.2% 1.2%  
445 0.1% 1.1%  
446 0.2% 1.0%  
447 0.1% 0.8%  
448 0.1% 0.7%  
449 0% 0.6%  
450 0.1% 0.6%  
451 0.1% 0.5%  
452 0.1% 0.5%  
453 0.1% 0.4%  
454 0% 0.3%  
455 0% 0.3%  
456 0% 0.3%  
457 0% 0.2%  
458 0% 0.2%  
459 0.1% 0.2%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 99.9%  
80 0% 99.9%  
81 0% 99.9%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0% 99.8%  
86 0% 99.8%  
87 0% 99.8%  
88 0% 99.8%  
89 0% 99.8%  
90 0.1% 99.8%  
91 0% 99.7%  
92 0.1% 99.7%  
93 0% 99.6%  
94 0% 99.6%  
95 0% 99.6%  
96 0.1% 99.5%  
97 0.1% 99.5%  
98 0.1% 99.3%  
99 0.1% 99.3%  
100 0% 99.2%  
101 0.1% 99.2%  
102 0.1% 99.0%  
103 0.1% 99.0%  
104 0.1% 98.9%  
105 0.1% 98.7%  
106 0.3% 98.7%  
107 0.1% 98%  
108 0.2% 98%  
109 0.1% 98%  
110 0.1% 98%  
111 0.1% 98%  
112 0.1% 98%  
113 0.6% 98%  
114 0.3% 97%  
115 0.3% 97%  
116 0.1% 97%  
117 0.1% 97%  
118 0.2% 96%  
119 0.2% 96%  
120 0.3% 96%  
121 0.2% 96%  
122 0.3% 95%  
123 0.5% 95%  
124 0.2% 95%  
125 0.3% 95%  
126 0.4% 94%  
127 0.2% 94%  
128 0.1% 94%  
129 1.4% 93%  
130 0.4% 92%  
131 0.2% 92%  
132 0.6% 91%  
133 1.1% 91%  
134 0.5% 90%  
135 1.0% 89%  
136 1.1% 88%  
137 0.3% 87%  
138 1.0% 87%  
139 1.3% 86%  
140 1.1% 85%  
141 1.4% 84%  
142 2% 82%  
143 0.9% 80%  
144 1.4% 79%  
145 1.2% 78%  
146 2% 76%  
147 2% 75%  
148 3% 73%  
149 2% 70%  
150 2% 68%  
151 0.9% 67%  
152 2% 66%  
153 0.9% 64%  
154 4% 63%  
155 2% 59%  
156 2% 56%  
157 2% 54%  
158 1.1% 53%  
159 4% 51% Median
160 0.8% 48%  
161 3% 47%  
162 0.9% 44%  
163 3% 43%  
164 3% 40%  
165 2% 38%  
166 2% 36%  
167 1.1% 35%  
168 1.2% 34%  
169 1.2% 32%  
170 3% 31%  
171 1.1% 29%  
172 0.6% 27%  
173 1.1% 27%  
174 2% 26%  
175 2% 23%  
176 0.8% 21%  
177 1.3% 20%  
178 1.3% 19%  
179 2% 17%  
180 1.0% 16%  
181 0.9% 15%  
182 1.4% 14%  
183 1.4% 12%  
184 0.8% 11%  
185 1.5% 10%  
186 1.1% 9%  
187 0.9% 8%  
188 0.6% 7%  
189 0.8% 6%  
190 0.5% 5%  
191 0.4% 5%  
192 0.7% 5%  
193 0.5% 4%  
194 0.3% 3%  
195 0.3% 3%  
196 0.3% 3%  
197 0.2% 3%  
198 0.3% 2%  
199 0.2% 2%  
200 0.1% 2%  
201 0.2% 2%  
202 0.2% 2%  
203 0.2% 1.4%  
204 0.1% 1.2%  
205 0.1% 1.1%  
206 0.1% 0.9%  
207 0.2% 0.8%  
208 0.1% 0.6%  
209 0.1% 0.6%  
210 0% 0.5%  
211 0.1% 0.4%  
212 0.1% 0.4%  
213 0.1% 0.3%  
214 0% 0.3%  
215 0.1% 0.2%  
216 0% 0.2%  
217 0% 0.2%  
218 0% 0.1%  
219 0% 0.1%  
220 0% 0.1%  
221 0% 0.1%  
222 0% 0.1%  
223 0% 0.1%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 0% 99.8%  
9 0% 99.8%  
10 0.5% 99.8%  
11 0.1% 99.3% Last Result
12 0.1% 99.2%  
13 0% 99.1%  
14 0.8% 99.1%  
15 2% 98%  
16 0.7% 97%  
17 3% 96%  
18 4% 93%  
19 4% 89%  
20 9% 85%  
21 6% 76%  
22 7% 70%  
23 6% 63%  
24 5% 57%  
25 5% 52% Median
26 6% 47%  
27 5% 42%  
28 3% 37%  
29 3% 34%  
30 2% 30%  
31 3% 29%  
32 3% 26%  
33 4% 23%  
34 2% 18%  
35 3% 17%  
36 4% 13%  
37 2% 9%  
38 2% 7%  
39 1.1% 6%  
40 1.5% 5%  
41 0.9% 3%  
42 0.4% 2%  
43 0.2% 2%  
44 0.3% 1.5%  
45 0.2% 1.2%  
46 0.1% 1.0%  
47 0.1% 0.9%  
48 0.1% 0.7%  
49 0.1% 0.6%  
50 0.2% 0.5%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 43% 100% Last Result
2 14% 57% Median
3 43% 43%  
4 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 99.9%  
20 0.1% 99.9%  
21 0.1% 99.8%  
22 0.1% 99.7%  
23 0.1% 99.6%  
24 0.1% 99.5%  
25 0.1% 99.4%  
26 0.3% 99.3%  
27 0.2% 99.0%  
28 0.1% 98.8%  
29 0.4% 98.7%  
30 0.1% 98%  
31 0.4% 98%  
32 0.6% 98%  
33 0.3% 97%  
34 3% 97%  
35 0.5% 94%  
36 2% 93%  
37 0.3% 91%  
38 4% 91%  
39 2% 87%  
40 3% 85%  
41 4% 82%  
42 1.5% 78%  
43 5% 76%  
44 5% 71%  
45 3% 66%  
46 8% 63%  
47 3% 55%  
48 2% 52% Last Result
49 3% 50% Median
50 3% 48%  
51 2% 45%  
52 6% 42%  
53 7% 36%  
54 6% 29%  
55 6% 23%  
56 4% 17%  
57 9% 13%  
58 4% 4%  
59 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100%  
1 21% 86%  
2 18% 65% Median
3 28% 47%  
4 13% 19% Last Result
5 6% 6%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 266 471 100% 445–497 440–507 433–517 421–533
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 265 470 100% 444–494 438–505 432–515 419–532
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 261 467 100% 442–492 436–503 429–514 416–530
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 254 444 100% 421–465 417–473 410–483 399–497
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 250 441 100% 419–462 414–471 408–482 396–494
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 217 421 100% 393–451 387–460 381–472 367–489
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 213 418 100% 391–448 384–459 377–469 364–488
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 206 396 100% 372–419 366–428 360–438 347–453
Labour Party 202 393 100% 369–418 363–426 358–436 345–451
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 417 210 0% 179–237 169–244 158–251 140–264
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 413 208 0% 177–235 167–242 156–248 138–261
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 376 184 0% 163–206 155–211 145–219 130–230
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 369 161 0% 136–187 125–193 114–199 98–212
Conservative Party 365 159 0% 133–185 123–190 113–197 96–209

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
266 0% 100% Last Result
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 99.9%  
409 0% 99.9%  
410 0% 99.9%  
411 0% 99.9%  
412 0% 99.9%  
413 0% 99.9%  
414 0% 99.8%  
415 0.1% 99.8%  
416 0% 99.8%  
417 0.1% 99.7%  
418 0.1% 99.7%  
419 0.1% 99.6%  
420 0% 99.6%  
421 0.1% 99.5%  
422 0.1% 99.4%  
423 0.2% 99.4%  
424 0.1% 99.2%  
425 0.1% 99.1%  
426 0.1% 98.9%  
427 0.2% 98.8%  
428 0.2% 98.6%  
429 0.2% 98%  
430 0.1% 98%  
431 0.2% 98%  
432 0.3% 98%  
433 0.2% 98%  
434 0.3% 97%  
435 0.3% 97%  
436 0.3% 97%  
437 0.5% 97%  
438 0.7% 96%  
439 0.4% 95%  
440 0.5% 95%  
441 0.8% 95%  
442 0.6% 94%  
443 0.9% 93%  
444 1.1% 92%  
445 1.5% 91%  
446 0.8% 90%  
447 1.4% 89%  
448 1.4% 88%  
449 0.9% 86%  
450 1.0% 85%  
451 2% 84%  
452 1.3% 83%  
453 1.3% 81%  
454 0.8% 80%  
455 2% 79%  
456 2% 77%  
457 1.1% 74%  
458 0.6% 73%  
459 1.1% 73%  
460 3% 71%  
461 1.2% 69%  
462 1.2% 68%  
463 1.1% 66%  
464 2% 65%  
465 2% 64%  
466 3% 62%  
467 3% 60%  
468 0.9% 57%  
469 3% 56%  
470 0.8% 53%  
471 4% 52% Median
472 1.1% 49%  
473 2% 47%  
474 2% 46%  
475 2% 44%  
476 4% 41%  
477 0.9% 37%  
478 2% 36%  
479 0.9% 34%  
480 2% 33%  
481 2% 32%  
482 3% 30%  
483 2% 27%  
484 2% 25%  
485 1.2% 24%  
486 1.4% 22%  
487 0.9% 21%  
488 2% 20%  
489 1.4% 18%  
490 1.1% 16%  
491 1.3% 15%  
492 1.0% 14%  
493 0.3% 13%  
494 1.1% 13%  
495 1.0% 12%  
496 0.5% 11%  
497 1.1% 10%  
498 0.6% 9%  
499 0.2% 9%  
500 0.4% 8%  
501 1.4% 8%  
502 0.1% 7%  
503 0.2% 6%  
504 0.4% 6%  
505 0.3% 6%  
506 0.2% 5%  
507 0.5% 5%  
508 0.3% 5%  
509 0.2% 5%  
510 0.3% 4%  
511 0.2% 4%  
512 0.2% 4%  
513 0.1% 4%  
514 0.1% 3%  
515 0.3% 3%  
516 0.3% 3%  
517 0.6% 3%  
518 0.1% 2%  
519 0.1% 2%  
520 0.1% 2%  
521 0.1% 2%  
522 0.2% 2%  
523 0.1% 2%  
524 0.3% 2%  
525 0.1% 1.3%  
526 0.1% 1.3%  
527 0.1% 1.1%  
528 0.1% 1.0%  
529 0.1% 0.9%  
530 0.1% 0.8%  
531 0.1% 0.8%  
532 0.1% 0.7%  
533 0.1% 0.6%  
534 0% 0.5%  
535 0% 0.4%  
536 0% 0.4%  
537 0% 0.4%  
538 0.1% 0.3%  
539 0% 0.3%  
540 0% 0.2%  
541 0% 0.2%  
542 0% 0.2%  
543 0% 0.2%  
544 0% 0.2%  
545 0% 0.2%  
546 0% 0.1%  
547 0% 0.1%  
548 0% 0.1%  
549 0% 0.1%  
550 0% 0.1%  
551 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
265 0% 100% Last Result
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 99.9%  
408 0% 99.9%  
409 0% 99.9%  
410 0% 99.9%  
411 0% 99.9%  
412 0% 99.9%  
413 0% 99.8%  
414 0% 99.8%  
415 0% 99.7%  
416 0.1% 99.7%  
417 0.1% 99.6%  
418 0% 99.6%  
419 0.1% 99.5%  
420 0.1% 99.5%  
421 0.1% 99.4%  
422 0.1% 99.2%  
423 0.1% 99.1%  
424 0.1% 99.0%  
425 0.1% 98.9%  
426 0.2% 98.8%  
427 0.2% 98.6%  
428 0.2% 98%  
429 0.2% 98%  
430 0.2% 98%  
431 0.3% 98%  
432 0.2% 98%  
433 0.3% 97%  
434 0.3% 97%  
435 0.4% 97%  
436 0.6% 96%  
437 0.6% 96%  
438 0.5% 95%  
439 0.5% 95%  
440 0.9% 94%  
441 0.8% 93%  
442 1.0% 92%  
443 1.1% 91%  
444 1.3% 90%  
445 1.0% 89%  
446 2% 88%  
447 0.9% 86%  
448 1.1% 85%  
449 1.1% 84%  
450 1.5% 83%  
451 2% 82%  
452 2% 80%  
453 2% 78%  
454 2% 76%  
455 0.4% 74%  
456 1.4% 74%  
457 2% 72%  
458 1.0% 71%  
459 2% 70%  
460 1.1% 68%  
461 1.2% 66%  
462 0.7% 65%  
463 3% 64%  
464 2% 61%  
465 1.5% 59%  
466 2% 57%  
467 0.8% 55%  
468 3% 54%  
469 0.8% 51% Median
470 3% 51%  
471 2% 47%  
472 2% 45%  
473 2% 43%  
474 1.1% 41%  
475 4% 40%  
476 0.7% 36%  
477 3% 35%  
478 2% 33%  
479 2% 31%  
480 2% 29%  
481 2% 27%  
482 2% 25%  
483 1.4% 23%  
484 0.6% 22%  
485 2% 21%  
486 2% 19%  
487 2% 18%  
488 1.4% 16%  
489 0.7% 15%  
490 0.6% 14%  
491 0.8% 13%  
492 1.2% 13%  
493 0.4% 11%  
494 1.3% 11%  
495 0.6% 10%  
496 0.5% 9%  
497 0.4% 9%  
498 0.4% 8%  
499 0.8% 8%  
500 0.6% 7%  
501 0.3% 6%  
502 0.3% 6%  
503 0.3% 6%  
504 0.5% 6%  
505 0.2% 5%  
506 0.4% 5%  
507 0.2% 4%  
508 0.4% 4%  
509 0.2% 4%  
510 0.1% 4%  
511 0.1% 4%  
512 0.2% 3%  
513 0.2% 3%  
514 0.2% 3%  
515 0.5% 3%  
516 0.1% 2%  
517 0.1% 2%  
518 0.1% 2%  
519 0.1% 2%  
520 0.2% 2%  
521 0.2% 2%  
522 0.1% 1.5%  
523 0.1% 1.3%  
524 0.1% 1.2%  
525 0.1% 1.1%  
526 0.2% 1.0%  
527 0% 0.9%  
528 0.1% 0.8%  
529 0.1% 0.8%  
530 0.1% 0.7%  
531 0.1% 0.6%  
532 0.1% 0.5%  
533 0.1% 0.4%  
534 0% 0.4%  
535 0% 0.3%  
536 0% 0.3%  
537 0% 0.3%  
538 0% 0.2%  
539 0% 0.2%  
540 0% 0.2%  
541 0% 0.2%  
542 0% 0.2%  
543 0% 0.1%  
544 0% 0.1%  
545 0% 0.1%  
546 0% 0.1%  
547 0% 0.1%  
548 0% 0.1%  
549 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100% Last Result
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 99.9%  
405 0% 99.9%  
406 0% 99.9%  
407 0% 99.9%  
408 0% 99.9%  
409 0% 99.9%  
410 0% 99.8%  
411 0.1% 99.8%  
412 0% 99.8%  
413 0% 99.7%  
414 0% 99.7%  
415 0% 99.6%  
416 0.1% 99.6%  
417 0.1% 99.5%  
418 0.1% 99.4%  
419 0.1% 99.3%  
420 0.2% 99.2%  
421 0.1% 99.1%  
422 0.1% 98.9%  
423 0.2% 98.8%  
424 0.2% 98.6%  
425 0.2% 98%  
426 0.2% 98%  
427 0.2% 98%  
428 0.3% 98%  
429 0.2% 98%  
430 0.3% 97%  
431 0.3% 97%  
432 0.3% 97%  
433 0.4% 97%  
434 0.5% 96%  
435 0.5% 96%  
436 0.9% 95%  
437 0.7% 94%  
438 0.8% 94%  
439 1.0% 93%  
440 1.1% 92%  
441 0.8% 91%  
442 1.0% 90%  
443 2% 89%  
444 1.2% 87%  
445 1.1% 86%  
446 1.2% 85%  
447 1.5% 84%  
448 1.2% 82%  
449 1.4% 81%  
450 2% 80%  
451 2% 78%  
452 2% 76%  
453 0.8% 74%  
454 0.9% 73%  
455 2% 72%  
456 2% 71%  
457 2% 68%  
458 0.5% 67%  
459 1.2% 66%  
460 2% 65%  
461 3% 63%  
462 2% 60%  
463 1.2% 58%  
464 0.6% 57%  
465 3% 56%  
466 1.4% 54%  
467 3% 52% Median
468 2% 49%  
469 4% 47%  
470 1.2% 44%  
471 2% 42%  
472 2% 41%  
473 2% 39%  
474 2% 36%  
475 2% 35%  
476 3% 33%  
477 1.4% 30%  
478 1.3% 28%  
479 3% 27%  
480 1.2% 24%  
481 2% 23%  
482 0.9% 21%  
483 2% 21%  
484 2% 19%  
485 1.4% 17%  
486 1.0% 16%  
487 0.6% 15%  
488 1.0% 14%  
489 0.7% 13%  
490 0.9% 13%  
491 0.5% 12%  
492 2% 11%  
493 0.9% 10%  
494 0.3% 9%  
495 0.2% 8%  
496 0.6% 8%  
497 0.2% 8%  
498 1.0% 7%  
499 0.4% 6%  
500 0.4% 6%  
501 0.2% 6%  
502 0.4% 5%  
503 0.4% 5%  
504 0.4% 5%  
505 0.3% 4%  
506 0.2% 4%  
507 0.2% 4%  
508 0.2% 4%  
509 0.1% 4%  
510 0.2% 3%  
511 0.2% 3%  
512 0.1% 3%  
513 0.2% 3%  
514 0.4% 3%  
515 0.2% 2%  
516 0.1% 2%  
517 0.1% 2%  
518 0.1% 2%  
519 0.2% 2%  
520 0.3% 2%  
521 0.1% 1.3%  
522 0.1% 1.2%  
523 0.2% 1.1%  
524 0.1% 1.0%  
525 0.1% 0.9%  
526 0.1% 0.8%  
527 0.1% 0.7%  
528 0% 0.6%  
529 0.1% 0.6%  
530 0.1% 0.5%  
531 0% 0.4%  
532 0.1% 0.4%  
533 0% 0.3%  
534 0% 0.3%  
535 0% 0.3%  
536 0% 0.2%  
537 0% 0.2%  
538 0% 0.2%  
539 0% 0.2%  
540 0% 0.2%  
541 0% 0.1%  
542 0% 0.1%  
543 0% 0.1%  
544 0% 0.1%  
545 0% 0.1%  
546 0% 0.1%  
547 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
254 0% 100% Last Result
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 99.9%  
389 0% 99.9%  
390 0% 99.9%  
391 0% 99.9%  
392 0% 99.9%  
393 0% 99.8%  
394 0% 99.8%  
395 0% 99.8%  
396 0.1% 99.7%  
397 0.1% 99.7%  
398 0% 99.6%  
399 0.1% 99.6%  
400 0.1% 99.4%  
401 0.1% 99.3%  
402 0.1% 99.2%  
403 0.2% 99.0%  
404 0.2% 98.9%  
405 0.1% 98.7%  
406 0.2% 98.6%  
407 0.3% 98%  
408 0.3% 98%  
409 0.2% 98%  
410 0.3% 98%  
411 0.2% 97%  
412 0.4% 97%  
413 0.3% 97%  
414 0.3% 96%  
415 0.5% 96%  
416 0.3% 96%  
417 0.6% 95%  
418 0.8% 95%  
419 1.0% 94%  
420 1.2% 93%  
421 2% 92%  
422 0.8% 89%  
423 1.5% 89%  
424 1.1% 87%  
425 3% 86%  
426 2% 83%  
427 2% 82%  
428 2% 80%  
429 2% 78%  
430 3% 77%  
431 0.9% 74%  
432 2% 73%  
433 2% 71%  
434 1.4% 70%  
435 2% 68%  
436 2% 66%  
437 2% 65%  
438 2% 63%  
439 1.2% 61%  
440 2% 60%  
441 3% 58%  
442 2% 56%  
443 3% 53%  
444 3% 50% Median
445 3% 47%  
446 1.5% 45%  
447 2% 43%  
448 5% 41%  
449 1.3% 36%  
450 3% 35%  
451 3% 32%  
452 3% 29%  
453 2% 26%  
454 2% 24%  
455 2% 22%  
456 1.0% 20%  
457 2% 19%  
458 1.2% 17%  
459 1.0% 15%  
460 1.4% 14%  
461 0.9% 13%  
462 0.7% 12%  
463 0.8% 11%  
464 0.5% 11%  
465 0.5% 10%  
466 1.2% 10%  
467 1.4% 8%  
468 0.5% 7%  
469 0.3% 7%  
470 0.4% 6%  
471 0.4% 6%  
472 0.3% 5%  
473 0.2% 5%  
474 0.5% 5%  
475 0.2% 4%  
476 0.1% 4%  
477 0.1% 4%  
478 0.1% 4%  
479 0.5% 4%  
480 0.1% 3%  
481 0.2% 3%  
482 0.4% 3%  
483 0.2% 3%  
484 0.2% 2%  
485 0.2% 2%  
486 0.3% 2%  
487 0.3% 2%  
488 0.1% 2%  
489 0.1% 1.4%  
490 0.1% 1.3%  
491 0.2% 1.2%  
492 0.1% 1.0%  
493 0.2% 0.9%  
494 0.1% 0.7%  
495 0.1% 0.6%  
496 0% 0.5%  
497 0.1% 0.5%  
498 0.1% 0.4%  
499 0.1% 0.4%  
500 0% 0.3%  
501 0% 0.3%  
502 0% 0.2%  
503 0% 0.2%  
504 0% 0.1%  
505 0% 0.1%  
506 0% 0.1%  
507 0% 0.1%  
508 0% 0.1%  
509 0% 0.1%  
510 0% 0.1%  
511 0% 0.1%  
512 0% 0.1%  
513 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100% Last Result
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 99.9%  
387 0% 99.9%  
388 0% 99.9%  
389 0% 99.9%  
390 0% 99.9%  
391 0% 99.8%  
392 0.1% 99.8%  
393 0.1% 99.7%  
394 0.1% 99.7%  
395 0.1% 99.6%  
396 0.1% 99.6%  
397 0.1% 99.5%  
398 0.1% 99.3%  
399 0.1% 99.3%  
400 0.2% 99.2%  
401 0.2% 99.0%  
402 0.2% 98.8%  
403 0.1% 98.6%  
404 0.3% 98.5%  
405 0.3% 98%  
406 0.2% 98%  
407 0.1% 98%  
408 0.4% 98%  
409 0.2% 97%  
410 0.3% 97%  
411 0.3% 97%  
412 0.5% 96%  
413 0.4% 96%  
414 0.4% 95%  
415 0.9% 95%  
416 0.6% 94%  
417 1.0% 93%  
418 2% 93%  
419 1.3% 91%  
420 1.3% 89%  
421 1.4% 88%  
422 2% 87%  
423 2% 85%  
424 2% 83%  
425 1.5% 81%  
426 1.3% 80%  
427 3% 78%  
428 1.1% 75%  
429 2% 74%  
430 1.0% 72%  
431 1.3% 71%  
432 2% 70%  
433 0.9% 68%  
434 3% 67%  
435 1.1% 64%  
436 2% 63%  
437 2% 61%  
438 2% 59%  
439 2% 57%  
440 2% 55%  
441 4% 53%  
442 3% 49% Median
443 1.2% 46%  
444 3% 45%  
445 3% 42%  
446 3% 39%  
447 2% 36%  
448 3% 34%  
449 3% 31%  
450 1.4% 28%  
451 3% 27%  
452 2% 24%  
453 2% 22%  
454 2% 20%  
455 1.1% 18%  
456 0.7% 16%  
457 1.2% 16%  
458 2% 15%  
459 0.8% 13%  
460 0.8% 12%  
461 0.8% 11%  
462 0.6% 11%  
463 0.8% 10%  
464 0.5% 9%  
465 1.3% 9%  
466 0.4% 7%  
467 0.7% 7%  
468 0.7% 6%  
469 0.2% 6%  
470 0.3% 5%  
471 0.4% 5%  
472 0.5% 5%  
473 0.1% 4%  
474 0.1% 4%  
475 0.1% 4%  
476 0.1% 4%  
477 0.2% 4%  
478 0.5% 4%  
479 0.1% 3%  
480 0.3% 3%  
481 0.2% 3%  
482 0.3% 3%  
483 0.3% 2%  
484 0.2% 2%  
485 0.1% 2%  
486 0.1% 2%  
487 0.3% 2%  
488 0.2% 1.3%  
489 0.1% 1.0%  
490 0.1% 0.9%  
491 0.1% 0.8%  
492 0.1% 0.7%  
493 0.1% 0.6%  
494 0.1% 0.5%  
495 0.1% 0.5%  
496 0% 0.4%  
497 0% 0.4%  
498 0.1% 0.3%  
499 0% 0.3%  
500 0% 0.2%  
501 0% 0.2%  
502 0% 0.2%  
503 0% 0.1%  
504 0% 0.1%  
505 0% 0.1%  
506 0% 0.1%  
507 0% 0.1%  
508 0% 0.1%  
509 0% 0.1%  
510 0% 0.1%  
511 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
217 0% 100% Last Result
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0% 99.9%  
356 0% 99.9%  
357 0% 99.9%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.8%  
361 0% 99.8%  
362 0.1% 99.7%  
363 0% 99.7%  
364 0% 99.6%  
365 0% 99.6%  
366 0.1% 99.6%  
367 0.1% 99.5%  
368 0.1% 99.5%  
369 0.1% 99.4%  
370 0.1% 99.3%  
371 0.2% 99.2%  
372 0.3% 99.0%  
373 0.1% 98.7%  
374 0.1% 98.6%  
375 0.1% 98.5%  
376 0.1% 98%  
377 0.1% 98%  
378 0.1% 98%  
379 0.3% 98%  
380 0.3% 98%  
381 0.5% 98%  
382 0.4% 97%  
383 0.6% 97%  
384 0.4% 96%  
385 0.2% 96%  
386 0.3% 96%  
387 0.5% 95%  
388 0.5% 95%  
389 1.4% 94%  
390 1.3% 93%  
391 0.6% 92%  
392 0.9% 91%  
393 0.7% 90%  
394 0.7% 89%  
395 1.2% 89%  
396 0.4% 88%  
397 0.8% 87%  
398 2% 86%  
399 0.8% 84%  
400 2% 83%  
401 1.3% 82%  
402 2% 80%  
403 1.2% 78%  
404 1.0% 77%  
405 0.6% 76%  
406 2% 76%  
407 0.5% 74%  
408 0.8% 74%  
409 2% 73%  
410 2% 71%  
411 2% 69%  
412 1.2% 67%  
413 2% 66%  
414 3% 64%  
415 1.2% 61%  
416 2% 60%  
417 1.0% 58%  
418 2% 57%  
419 3% 55%  
420 1.4% 52% Median
421 3% 51%  
422 1.1% 47%  
423 0.9% 46%  
424 2% 45%  
425 1.2% 43%  
426 3% 42%  
427 0.8% 39%  
428 1.1% 38%  
429 2% 37%  
430 1.0% 35%  
431 1.3% 34%  
432 2% 32%  
433 2% 31%  
434 1.5% 29%  
435 2% 27%  
436 2% 25%  
437 1.0% 23%  
438 2% 22%  
439 1.4% 20%  
440 0.6% 19%  
441 1.0% 18%  
442 0.3% 17%  
443 1.3% 17%  
444 0.7% 16%  
445 0.9% 15%  
446 0.6% 14%  
447 0.8% 13%  
448 0.4% 12%  
449 2% 12%  
450 0.5% 11%  
451 0.8% 10%  
452 0.7% 9%  
453 0.7% 9%  
454 0.7% 8%  
455 0.7% 7%  
456 0.2% 6%  
457 0.4% 6%  
458 0.2% 6%  
459 0.1% 6%  
460 0.6% 6%  
461 0.1% 5%  
462 0.1% 5%  
463 0.2% 5%  
464 0.2% 4%  
465 0.2% 4%  
466 0.2% 4%  
467 0.3% 4%  
468 0.3% 4%  
469 0.3% 3%  
470 0.4% 3%  
471 0.1% 3%  
472 0.5% 3%  
473 0.2% 2%  
474 0.3% 2%  
475 0.1% 2%  
476 0% 1.5%  
477 0.1% 1.5%  
478 0.1% 1.3%  
479 0% 1.3%  
480 0.1% 1.2%  
481 0% 1.1%  
482 0.1% 1.1%  
483 0.1% 1.0%  
484 0.1% 0.9%  
485 0.1% 0.9%  
486 0.1% 0.8%  
487 0.1% 0.7%  
488 0.1% 0.7%  
489 0.1% 0.6%  
490 0.1% 0.5%  
491 0% 0.4%  
492 0% 0.4%  
493 0.1% 0.4%  
494 0% 0.3%  
495 0% 0.3%  
496 0% 0.3%  
497 0% 0.2%  
498 0% 0.2%  
499 0% 0.2%  
500 0% 0.2%  
501 0% 0.2%  
502 0% 0.1%  
503 0% 0.1%  
504 0% 0.1%  
505 0% 0.1%  
506 0% 0.1%  
507 0% 0.1%  
508 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
213 0% 100% Last Result
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0% 99.9%  
356 0% 99.9%  
357 0% 99.8%  
358 0% 99.8%  
359 0% 99.8%  
360 0% 99.7%  
361 0.1% 99.7%  
362 0.1% 99.6%  
363 0.1% 99.6%  
364 0% 99.5%  
365 0% 99.5%  
366 0% 99.4%  
367 0.1% 99.4%  
368 0.2% 99.3%  
369 0.1% 99.0%  
370 0.1% 98.9%  
371 0.1% 98.8%  
372 0.3% 98.7%  
373 0.1% 98%  
374 0.1% 98%  
375 0.1% 98%  
376 0.3% 98%  
377 0.5% 98%  
378 0.2% 97%  
379 0.2% 97%  
380 0.3% 97%  
381 0.6% 97%  
382 0.5% 96%  
383 0.5% 96%  
384 0.3% 95%  
385 0.7% 95%  
386 0.3% 94%  
387 2% 94%  
388 1.0% 92%  
389 0.5% 91%  
390 0.6% 91%  
391 1.0% 90%  
392 0.8% 89%  
393 0.6% 88%  
394 1.2% 88%  
395 2% 87%  
396 1.1% 85%  
397 2% 84%  
398 0.9% 82%  
399 1.2% 81%  
400 0.8% 80%  
401 2% 79%  
402 1.0% 77%  
403 1.1% 76%  
404 0.9% 75%  
405 1.1% 74%  
406 0.7% 73%  
407 1.5% 72%  
408 3% 71%  
409 1.2% 68%  
410 1.2% 66%  
411 2% 65%  
412 2% 64%  
413 2% 62%  
414 2% 60%  
415 3% 58%  
416 0.6% 54%  
417 2% 54%  
418 3% 52% Median
419 1.1% 49%  
420 1.1% 48%  
421 1.1% 47%  
422 2% 45%  
423 2% 43%  
424 0.7% 41%  
425 2% 40%  
426 2% 38%  
427 2% 37%  
428 1.2% 35%  
429 2% 33%  
430 2% 31%  
431 0.9% 30%  
432 2% 29%  
433 2% 26%  
434 0.8% 24%  
435 1.4% 23%  
436 2% 22%  
437 1.0% 20%  
438 1.0% 19%  
439 0.8% 18%  
440 1.2% 17%  
441 0.8% 16%  
442 0.4% 15%  
443 0.9% 15%  
444 0.7% 14%  
445 0.7% 13%  
446 1.0% 13%  
447 1.2% 12%  
448 0.5% 10%  
449 0.8% 10%  
450 0.2% 9%  
451 1.2% 9%  
452 0.6% 8%  
453 0.4% 7%  
454 0.7% 7%  
455 0.2% 6%  
456 0.2% 6%  
457 0.2% 6%  
458 0.5% 6%  
459 0.2% 5%  
460 0.3% 5%  
461 0.1% 5%  
462 0.2% 4%  
463 0.2% 4%  
464 0.2% 4%  
465 0.2% 4%  
466 0.2% 4%  
467 0.3% 3%  
468 0.3% 3%  
469 0.3% 3%  
470 0.1% 2%  
471 0.5% 2%  
472 0.1% 2%  
473 0.1% 2%  
474 0.3% 2%  
475 0% 1.4%  
476 0.2% 1.4%  
477 0% 1.2%  
478 0.1% 1.2%  
479 0% 1.1%  
480 0.1% 1.1%  
481 0% 1.0%  
482 0.1% 0.9%  
483 0.1% 0.8%  
484 0.1% 0.8%  
485 0.1% 0.7%  
486 0.1% 0.6%  
487 0% 0.6%  
488 0.1% 0.5%  
489 0% 0.4%  
490 0.1% 0.4%  
491 0.1% 0.4%  
492 0% 0.3%  
493 0% 0.3%  
494 0% 0.3%  
495 0% 0.2%  
496 0% 0.2%  
497 0% 0.2%  
498 0% 0.2%  
499 0% 0.1%  
500 0% 0.1%  
501 0% 0.1%  
502 0% 0.1%  
503 0% 0.1%  
504 0% 0.1%  
505 0% 0.1%  
506 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
206 0% 100% Last Result
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.8%  
343 0% 99.8%  
344 0% 99.8%  
345 0.1% 99.7%  
346 0.1% 99.6%  
347 0.1% 99.6%  
348 0.1% 99.5%  
349 0.2% 99.4%  
350 0.1% 99.3%  
351 0.1% 99.2%  
352 0.1% 99.1%  
353 0.2% 98.9%  
354 0.2% 98.7%  
355 0.2% 98.5%  
356 0.3% 98%  
357 0.1% 98%  
358 0.1% 98%  
359 0.2% 98%  
360 0.3% 98%  
361 0.2% 97%  
362 0.4% 97%  
363 0.4% 97%  
364 0.6% 96%  
365 0.7% 96%  
366 0.7% 95%  
367 0.5% 94%  
368 1.4% 94%  
369 0.6% 93%  
370 0.7% 92%  
371 1.1% 91%  
372 0.7% 90%  
373 1.3% 89%  
374 2% 88%  
375 2% 87%  
376 2% 85%  
377 2% 83%  
378 2% 81%  
379 1.2% 79%  
380 0.8% 78%  
381 1.0% 77%  
382 2% 76%  
383 2% 74%  
384 0.4% 72%  
385 2% 71%  
386 2% 70%  
387 2% 68%  
388 3% 66%  
389 2% 63%  
390 2% 61%  
391 2% 59%  
392 2% 58%  
393 1.0% 56%  
394 2% 55%  
395 2% 53% Median
396 4% 51%  
397 2% 47%  
398 2% 46%  
399 3% 44%  
400 3% 41%  
401 0.7% 37%  
402 4% 37%  
403 1.2% 33%  
404 3% 32%  
405 3% 29%  
406 1.1% 26%  
407 0.9% 25%  
408 2% 24%  
409 2% 22%  
410 1.4% 21%  
411 1.1% 19%  
412 1.4% 18%  
413 2% 17%  
414 1.1% 15%  
415 0.7% 14%  
416 1.1% 13%  
417 0.8% 12%  
418 0.6% 11%  
419 0.8% 11%  
420 0.6% 10%  
421 0.3% 9%  
422 1.0% 9%  
423 0.8% 8%  
424 0.3% 7%  
425 0.3% 7%  
426 0.8% 6%  
427 0.6% 6%  
428 0.2% 5%  
429 0.3% 5%  
430 0.3% 5%  
431 0.2% 4%  
432 0.1% 4%  
433 0.1% 4%  
434 0.2% 4%  
435 0.3% 4%  
436 0.5% 3%  
437 0.2% 3%  
438 0.2% 3%  
439 0.1% 2%  
440 0.1% 2%  
441 0.5% 2%  
442 0.1% 2%  
443 0.1% 2%  
444 0.1% 1.4%  
445 0.1% 1.3%  
446 0.1% 1.2%  
447 0.2% 1.1%  
448 0.1% 0.9%  
449 0.1% 0.9%  
450 0% 0.7%  
451 0.1% 0.7%  
452 0% 0.6%  
453 0.1% 0.6%  
454 0% 0.5%  
455 0% 0.4%  
456 0% 0.4%  
457 0% 0.3%  
458 0% 0.3%  
459 0% 0.2%  
460 0% 0.2%  
461 0% 0.2%  
462 0% 0.2%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.8%  
340 0% 99.8%  
341 0% 99.8%  
342 0% 99.7%  
343 0.1% 99.7%  
344 0.1% 99.6%  
345 0.2% 99.6%  
346 0.1% 99.4%  
347 0.1% 99.3%  
348 0.1% 99.2%  
349 0.1% 99.2%  
350 0.2% 99.0%  
351 0.2% 98.8%  
352 0.2% 98.7%  
353 0.2% 98%  
354 0.2% 98%  
355 0.2% 98%  
356 0.1% 98%  
357 0.2% 98%  
358 0.3% 98%  
359 0.3% 97%  
360 0.4% 97%  
361 0.5% 97%  
362 0.5% 96%  
363 0.6% 96%  
364 0.6% 95%  
365 1.1% 94%  
366 1.0% 93%  
367 0.8% 92%  
368 1.0% 91%  
369 0.6% 90%  
370 2% 90%  
371 0.8% 88%  
372 2% 87%  
373 1.0% 86%  
374 2% 85%  
375 2% 83%  
376 0.7% 80%  
377 2% 79%  
378 2% 78%  
379 1.0% 76%  
380 1.3% 75%  
381 2% 74%  
382 2% 72%  
383 2% 70%  
384 0.9% 68%  
385 2% 67%  
386 2% 66%  
387 2% 64%  
388 3% 62%  
389 2% 59%  
390 2% 57%  
391 2% 55%  
392 2% 54%  
393 2% 52% Median
394 3% 50%  
395 3% 47%  
396 2% 44%  
397 3% 43%  
398 3% 40%  
399 2% 37%  
400 2% 35%  
401 2% 33%  
402 2% 31%  
403 2% 29%  
404 2% 27%  
405 3% 26%  
406 1.2% 23%  
407 2% 22%  
408 0.9% 20%  
409 1.0% 19%  
410 2% 18%  
411 0.6% 16%  
412 1.3% 15%  
413 2% 14%  
414 0.9% 13%  
415 0.6% 12%  
416 0.4% 11%  
417 0.4% 11%  
418 1.1% 10%  
419 0.9% 9%  
420 0.3% 8%  
421 0.9% 8%  
422 0.2% 7%  
423 0.7% 7%  
424 0.5% 6%  
425 0.3% 6%  
426 0.6% 5%  
427 0.3% 5%  
428 0.2% 4%  
429 0.2% 4%  
430 0.1% 4%  
431 0.3% 4%  
432 0.1% 4%  
433 0.2% 4%  
434 0.2% 3%  
435 0.5% 3%  
436 0.2% 3%  
437 0.3% 2%  
438 0.2% 2%  
439 0.2% 2%  
440 0.1% 2%  
441 0.3% 2%  
442 0.1% 1.4%  
443 0.1% 1.3%  
444 0.2% 1.2%  
445 0.1% 1.1%  
446 0.2% 1.0%  
447 0.1% 0.8%  
448 0.1% 0.7%  
449 0% 0.6%  
450 0.1% 0.6%  
451 0.1% 0.5%  
452 0.1% 0.5%  
453 0.1% 0.4%  
454 0% 0.3%  
455 0% 0.3%  
456 0% 0.3%  
457 0% 0.2%  
458 0% 0.2%  
459 0.1% 0.2%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.8%  
130 0% 99.8%  
131 0% 99.8%  
132 0% 99.8%  
133 0% 99.8%  
134 0% 99.7%  
135 0% 99.7%  
136 0% 99.7%  
137 0.1% 99.7%  
138 0% 99.6%  
139 0% 99.6%  
140 0.1% 99.6%  
141 0% 99.4%  
142 0% 99.4%  
143 0.1% 99.4%  
144 0.1% 99.3%  
145 0.1% 99.2%  
146 0% 99.1%  
147 0.1% 99.0%  
148 0.1% 99.0%  
149 0.1% 98.9%  
150 0% 98.8%  
151 0.1% 98.8%  
152 0.1% 98.7%  
153 0.1% 98.6%  
154 0.3% 98.5%  
155 0.1% 98%  
156 0.1% 98%  
157 0.5% 98%  
158 0.1% 98%  
159 0.2% 97%  
160 0.4% 97%  
161 0.2% 97%  
162 0.3% 97%  
163 0.2% 96%  
164 0.2% 96%  
165 0.3% 96%  
166 0.1% 96%  
167 0.2% 96%  
168 0.2% 95%  
169 0.5% 95%  
170 0.3% 95%  
171 0.2% 94%  
172 0.3% 94%  
173 0.2% 94%  
174 0.4% 94%  
175 0.5% 93%  
176 0.5% 93%  
177 0.7% 92%  
178 1.2% 92%  
179 0.5% 90%  
180 0.3% 90%  
181 0.8% 90%  
182 1.2% 89%  
183 0.9% 88%  
184 1.3% 87%  
185 0.2% 85%  
186 0.5% 85%  
187 1.2% 85%  
188 0.7% 84%  
189 0.7% 83%  
190 2% 82%  
191 1.0% 81%  
192 1.2% 80%  
193 2% 78%  
194 1.2% 77%  
195 2% 75%  
196 1.4% 73%  
197 2% 72%  
198 1.0% 70%  
199 2% 69%  
200 2% 67%  
201 1.3% 65%  
202 2% 64%  
203 1.2% 62%  
204 3% 61%  
205 2% 58%  
206 1.1% 56%  
207 2% 55%  
208 0.6% 53%  
209 2% 53%  
210 1.0% 50% Median
211 2% 49%  
212 3% 47%  
213 2% 45%  
214 2% 42%  
215 1.3% 40%  
216 2% 38%  
217 1.5% 37%  
218 2% 35%  
219 2% 34%  
220 2% 31%  
221 0.7% 29%  
222 1.1% 28%  
223 0.7% 27%  
224 0.8% 26%  
225 1.2% 25%  
226 2% 24%  
227 0.9% 22%  
228 1.3% 21%  
229 0.9% 20%  
230 2% 19%  
231 1.0% 17%  
232 0.6% 16%  
233 1.1% 15%  
234 1.4% 14%  
235 1.2% 13%  
236 0.9% 12%  
237 0.9% 11%  
238 0.7% 10%  
239 0.5% 9%  
240 1.5% 9%  
241 0.6% 7%  
242 0.8% 7%  
243 0.3% 6%  
244 1.0% 6%  
245 0.3% 5%  
246 0.4% 4%  
247 0.4% 4%  
248 0.4% 3%  
249 0.2% 3%  
250 0.2% 3%  
251 0.2% 3%  
252 0.4% 2%  
253 0.2% 2%  
254 0.1% 2%  
255 0.1% 2%  
256 0.1% 2%  
257 0.2% 1.5%  
258 0.1% 1.3%  
259 0.1% 1.1%  
260 0.2% 1.1%  
261 0.2% 0.9%  
262 0.1% 0.7%  
263 0% 0.6%  
264 0% 0.5%  
265 0.1% 0.5%  
266 0% 0.4%  
267 0.1% 0.4%  
268 0% 0.3%  
269 0% 0.3%  
270 0% 0.3%  
271 0.1% 0.2%  
272 0% 0.2%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.8%  
128 0% 99.8%  
129 0% 99.8%  
130 0% 99.8%  
131 0% 99.8%  
132 0% 99.7%  
133 0% 99.7%  
134 0% 99.7%  
135 0% 99.7%  
136 0% 99.6%  
137 0.1% 99.6%  
138 0% 99.5%  
139 0.1% 99.5%  
140 0.1% 99.4%  
141 0.1% 99.3%  
142 0.1% 99.2%  
143 0.1% 99.2%  
144 0% 99.1%  
145 0.1% 99.0%  
146 0% 98.9%  
147 0.1% 98.9%  
148 0.1% 98.8%  
149 0.1% 98.7%  
150 0.1% 98.7%  
151 0% 98.6%  
152 0.1% 98.5%  
153 0.2% 98%  
154 0.3% 98%  
155 0.2% 98%  
156 0.5% 98%  
157 0.1% 97%  
158 0.5% 97%  
159 0.2% 97%  
160 0.2% 97%  
161 0.3% 96%  
162 0.1% 96%  
163 0.2% 96%  
164 0.3% 96%  
165 0.1% 95%  
166 0.1% 95%  
167 0.5% 95%  
168 0.2% 95%  
169 0.2% 94%  
170 0.4% 94%  
171 0.2% 94%  
172 0.2% 94%  
173 0.7% 94%  
174 0.5% 93%  
175 0.4% 92%  
176 1.2% 92%  
177 0.9% 91%  
178 0.6% 90%  
179 0.8% 89%  
180 0.8% 88%  
181 1.1% 88%  
182 0.6% 87%  
183 0.9% 86%  
184 1.4% 85%  
185 0.6% 84%  
186 0.5% 83%  
187 0.3% 83%  
188 2% 82%  
189 1.1% 81%  
190 0.9% 80%  
191 2% 79%  
192 1.4% 76%  
193 2% 75%  
194 2% 73%  
195 2% 71%  
196 1.3% 69%  
197 2% 68%  
198 0.6% 66%  
199 1.0% 66%  
200 3% 65%  
201 3% 62%  
202 0.8% 59%  
203 3% 58%  
204 0.8% 55%  
205 0.7% 55%  
206 2% 54%  
207 1.5% 52%  
208 2% 50% Median
209 3% 48%  
210 2% 45%  
211 1.2% 43%  
212 1.0% 42%  
213 3% 41%  
214 1.3% 38%  
215 1.3% 36%  
216 3% 35%  
217 1.4% 32%  
218 3% 31%  
219 1.0% 28%  
220 0.6% 27%  
221 0.9% 27%  
222 0.7% 26%  
223 1.4% 25%  
224 1.0% 24%  
225 2% 23%  
226 1.2% 21%  
227 2% 20%  
228 1.2% 18%  
229 1.2% 17%  
230 0.7% 16%  
231 2% 15%  
232 0.7% 13%  
233 0.3% 12%  
234 2% 12%  
235 0.8% 11%  
236 0.8% 10%  
237 1.2% 9%  
238 0.5% 8%  
239 1.0% 7%  
240 1.0% 6%  
241 0.3% 5%  
242 0.5% 5%  
243 0.5% 5%  
244 0.5% 4%  
245 0.2% 4%  
246 0.3% 3%  
247 0.4% 3%  
248 0.4% 3%  
249 0.2% 2%  
250 0.2% 2%  
251 0.1% 2%  
252 0.1% 2%  
253 0.1% 2%  
254 0.1% 2%  
255 0.1% 1.4%  
256 0.1% 1.4%  
257 0.3% 1.3%  
258 0.2% 1.0%  
259 0.1% 0.7%  
260 0.1% 0.7%  
261 0.1% 0.6%  
262 0.1% 0.5%  
263 0% 0.4%  
264 0% 0.4%  
265 0% 0.4%  
266 0.1% 0.3%  
267 0% 0.3%  
268 0% 0.2%  
269 0.1% 0.2%  
270 0% 0.1%  
271 0% 0.1%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0% 99.9%  
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0% 99.9%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0% 99.8%  
125 0% 99.8%  
126 0% 99.8%  
127 0.1% 99.7%  
128 0% 99.7%  
129 0.1% 99.7%  
130 0.1% 99.6%  
131 0% 99.5%  
132 0% 99.5%  
133 0.1% 99.4%  
134 0.1% 99.3%  
135 0.1% 99.2%  
136 0.1% 99.1%  
137 0.2% 99.0%  
138 0.1% 98.8%  
139 0.1% 98.7%  
140 0.1% 98.6%  
141 0.3% 98%  
142 0.4% 98%  
143 0.1% 98%  
144 0.1% 98%  
145 0.4% 98%  
146 0.2% 97%  
147 0.1% 97%  
148 0.2% 97%  
149 0.5% 97%  
150 0.1% 96%  
151 0.1% 96%  
152 0.2% 96%  
153 0.1% 96%  
154 0.5% 96%  
155 0.4% 95%  
156 0.2% 95%  
157 0.4% 95%  
158 0.4% 94%  
159 0.4% 94%  
160 0.3% 93%  
161 1.0% 93%  
162 2% 92%  
163 0.4% 90%  
164 0.4% 90%  
165 1.1% 90%  
166 0.5% 88%  
167 1.2% 88%  
168 0.9% 87%  
169 1.2% 86%  
170 2% 85%  
171 2% 83%  
172 1.3% 81%  
173 0.9% 80%  
174 2% 79%  
175 4% 77%  
176 2% 73%  
177 2% 70%  
178 3% 68%  
179 3% 65%  
180 2% 62%  
181 3% 60%  
182 2% 57%  
183 2% 55%  
184 4% 53% Median
185 3% 49%  
186 2% 47%  
187 2% 44%  
188 2% 42%  
189 2% 40%  
190 2% 38%  
191 1.0% 36%  
192 1.2% 35%  
193 2% 34%  
194 2% 32%  
195 2% 30%  
196 1.3% 28%  
197 2% 27%  
198 0.7% 25%  
199 2% 24%  
200 2% 22%  
201 2% 20%  
202 1.4% 18%  
203 2% 17%  
204 2% 15%  
205 0.7% 13%  
206 2% 12%  
207 1.2% 10%  
208 1.3% 9%  
209 0.9% 7%  
210 0.9% 6%  
211 0.6% 6%  
212 0.5% 5%  
213 0.3% 5%  
214 0.5% 4%  
215 0.4% 4%  
216 0.3% 3%  
217 0.3% 3%  
218 0.2% 3%  
219 0.4% 3%  
220 0.2% 2%  
221 0.2% 2%  
222 0.4% 2%  
223 0.1% 1.5%  
224 0.1% 1.3%  
225 0.1% 1.2%  
226 0.2% 1.1%  
227 0.1% 0.9%  
228 0.2% 0.8%  
229 0.1% 0.6%  
230 0.1% 0.5%  
231 0.1% 0.4%  
232 0% 0.4%  
233 0.1% 0.3%  
234 0% 0.3%  
235 0% 0.2%  
236 0% 0.2%  
237 0% 0.1%  
238 0% 0.1%  
239 0% 0.1%  
240 0% 0.1%  
241 0% 0.1%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 99.9%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0% 99.9%  
86 0% 99.9%  
87 0% 99.8%  
88 0% 99.8%  
89 0% 99.8%  
90 0% 99.8%  
91 0% 99.8%  
92 0.1% 99.8%  
93 0% 99.7%  
94 0% 99.7%  
95 0% 99.6%  
96 0% 99.6%  
97 0% 99.6%  
98 0.1% 99.5%  
99 0.1% 99.5%  
100 0.1% 99.4%  
101 0.1% 99.3%  
102 0% 99.2%  
103 0.1% 99.1%  
104 0.1% 99.1%  
105 0.1% 99.0%  
106 0.1% 98.9%  
107 0.1% 98.8%  
108 0.4% 98.6%  
109 0.1% 98%  
110 0.1% 98%  
111 0.1% 98%  
112 0.2% 98%  
113 0.1% 98%  
114 0.5% 98%  
115 0.2% 97%  
116 0.2% 97%  
117 0.2% 97%  
118 0.1% 97%  
119 0.3% 97%  
120 0.1% 96%  
121 0.2% 96%  
122 0.3% 96%  
123 0.1% 96%  
124 0.5% 96%  
125 0.4% 95%  
126 0.3% 95%  
127 0.2% 94%  
128 0.2% 94%  
129 0.5% 94%  
130 0.8% 94%  
131 0.6% 93%  
132 0.5% 92%  
133 0.2% 92%  
134 0.4% 92%  
135 0.9% 91%  
136 1.4% 90%  
137 0.4% 89%  
138 0.9% 88%  
139 1.1% 87%  
140 0.5% 86%  
141 0.7% 86%  
142 2% 85%  
143 1.2% 83%  
144 2% 82%  
145 1.0% 80%  
146 0.6% 79%  
147 2% 79%  
148 3% 77%  
149 1.2% 75%  
150 2% 73%  
151 2% 71%  
152 2% 69%  
153 1.2% 67%  
154 2% 66%  
155 2% 64%  
156 2% 62%  
157 2% 60%  
158 3% 58%  
159 3% 55%  
160 2% 53%  
161 0.8% 50% Median
162 4% 50%  
163 1.3% 46%  
164 1.2% 44%  
165 1.5% 43%  
166 2% 42%  
167 3% 40%  
168 2% 37%  
169 1.2% 35%  
170 0.8% 34%  
171 2% 33%  
172 2% 32%  
173 2% 29%  
174 1.1% 28%  
175 2% 27%  
176 1.3% 25%  
177 2% 24%  
178 1.5% 22%  
179 1.3% 20%  
180 1.2% 19%  
181 1.3% 18%  
182 2% 16%  
183 1.1% 15%  
184 0.8% 14%  
185 2% 13%  
186 1.3% 11%  
187 0.9% 10%  
188 1.3% 9%  
189 0.7% 8%  
190 0.5% 7%  
191 1.0% 7%  
192 0.5% 6%  
193 0.5% 5%  
194 0.7% 5%  
195 0.4% 4%  
196 0.2% 4%  
197 0.3% 3%  
198 0.3% 3%  
199 0.3% 3%  
200 0.2% 2%  
201 0.2% 2%  
202 0.2% 2%  
203 0.2% 2%  
204 0.1% 2%  
205 0.2% 1.5%  
206 0.2% 1.3%  
207 0.2% 1.1%  
208 0.1% 0.9%  
209 0.1% 0.9%  
210 0.1% 0.7%  
211 0.1% 0.6%  
212 0.1% 0.5%  
213 0.1% 0.5%  
214 0% 0.4%  
215 0% 0.3%  
216 0% 0.3%  
217 0.1% 0.3%  
218 0% 0.2%  
219 0% 0.2%  
220 0% 0.1%  
221 0% 0.1%  
222 0% 0.1%  
223 0% 0.1%  
224 0% 0.1%  
225 0% 0.1%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 99.9%  
80 0% 99.9%  
81 0% 99.9%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0% 99.8%  
86 0% 99.8%  
87 0% 99.8%  
88 0% 99.8%  
89 0% 99.8%  
90 0.1% 99.8%  
91 0% 99.7%  
92 0.1% 99.7%  
93 0% 99.6%  
94 0% 99.6%  
95 0% 99.6%  
96 0.1% 99.5%  
97 0.1% 99.5%  
98 0.1% 99.3%  
99 0.1% 99.3%  
100 0% 99.2%  
101 0.1% 99.2%  
102 0.1% 99.0%  
103 0.1% 99.0%  
104 0.1% 98.9%  
105 0.1% 98.7%  
106 0.3% 98.7%  
107 0.1% 98%  
108 0.2% 98%  
109 0.1% 98%  
110 0.1% 98%  
111 0.1% 98%  
112 0.1% 98%  
113 0.6% 98%  
114 0.3% 97%  
115 0.3% 97%  
116 0.1% 97%  
117 0.1% 97%  
118 0.2% 96%  
119 0.2% 96%  
120 0.3% 96%  
121 0.2% 96%  
122 0.3% 95%  
123 0.5% 95%  
124 0.2% 95%  
125 0.3% 95%  
126 0.4% 94%  
127 0.2% 94%  
128 0.1% 94%  
129 1.4% 93%  
130 0.4% 92%  
131 0.2% 92%  
132 0.6% 91%  
133 1.1% 91%  
134 0.5% 90%  
135 1.0% 89%  
136 1.1% 88%  
137 0.3% 87%  
138 1.0% 87%  
139 1.3% 86%  
140 1.1% 85%  
141 1.4% 84%  
142 2% 82%  
143 0.9% 80%  
144 1.4% 79%  
145 1.2% 78%  
146 2% 76%  
147 2% 75%  
148 3% 73%  
149 2% 70%  
150 2% 68%  
151 0.9% 67%  
152 2% 66%  
153 0.9% 64%  
154 4% 63%  
155 2% 59%  
156 2% 56%  
157 2% 54%  
158 1.1% 53%  
159 4% 51% Median
160 0.8% 48%  
161 3% 47%  
162 0.9% 44%  
163 3% 43%  
164 3% 40%  
165 2% 38%  
166 2% 36%  
167 1.1% 35%  
168 1.2% 34%  
169 1.2% 32%  
170 3% 31%  
171 1.1% 29%  
172 0.6% 27%  
173 1.1% 27%  
174 2% 26%  
175 2% 23%  
176 0.8% 21%  
177 1.3% 20%  
178 1.3% 19%  
179 2% 17%  
180 1.0% 16%  
181 0.9% 15%  
182 1.4% 14%  
183 1.4% 12%  
184 0.8% 11%  
185 1.5% 10%  
186 1.1% 9%  
187 0.9% 8%  
188 0.6% 7%  
189 0.8% 6%  
190 0.5% 5%  
191 0.4% 5%  
192 0.7% 5%  
193 0.5% 4%  
194 0.3% 3%  
195 0.3% 3%  
196 0.3% 3%  
197 0.2% 3%  
198 0.3% 2%  
199 0.2% 2%  
200 0.1% 2%  
201 0.2% 2%  
202 0.2% 2%  
203 0.2% 1.4%  
204 0.1% 1.2%  
205 0.1% 1.1%  
206 0.1% 0.9%  
207 0.2% 0.8%  
208 0.1% 0.6%  
209 0.1% 0.6%  
210 0% 0.5%  
211 0.1% 0.4%  
212 0.1% 0.4%  
213 0.1% 0.3%  
214 0% 0.3%  
215 0.1% 0.2%  
216 0% 0.2%  
217 0% 0.2%  
218 0% 0.1%  
219 0% 0.1%  
220 0% 0.1%  
221 0% 0.1%  
222 0% 0.1%  
223 0% 0.1%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations