Opinion Poll by BMG Research for The i, 1 December 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 32.1% 47.5% 45.9–49.2% 45.4–49.7% 45.0–50.1% 44.2–50.9%
Conservative Party 43.6% 28.9% 27.4–30.4% 27.0–30.9% 26.7–31.2% 26.0–32.0%
Liberal Democrats 11.5% 10.3% 9.4–11.4% 9.1–11.7% 8.9–12.0% 8.4–12.5%
Scottish National Party 3.9% 4.1% 3.5–4.9% 3.4–5.1% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.6%
Green Party 2.8% 4.1% 3.5–4.8% 3.3–5.0% 3.2–5.2% 2.9–5.6%
Brexit Party 2.0% 2.7% 2.3–3.4% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.8–4.0%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.3% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 202 372 352–393 347–398 343–404 334–412
Conservative Party 365 184 163–202 157–208 153–213 144–222
Liberal Democrats 11 23 17–30 15–32 14–35 10–38
Scottish National Party 48 51 40–57 38–57 34–58 30–58
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0–2
Plaid Cymru 4 2 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–5

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0.1% 99.9%  
331 0.1% 99.8%  
332 0.1% 99.7%  
333 0.1% 99.7%  
334 0.1% 99.6%  
335 0.1% 99.5%  
336 0.2% 99.4%  
337 0.2% 99.2%  
338 0.3% 99.0%  
339 0.3% 98.7%  
340 0.2% 98%  
341 0.1% 98%  
342 0.3% 98%  
343 0.6% 98%  
344 0.5% 97%  
345 0.9% 97%  
346 0.8% 96%  
347 0.2% 95%  
348 0.4% 95%  
349 2% 94%  
350 0.7% 93%  
351 1.1% 92%  
352 1.1% 91%  
353 1.2% 90%  
354 0.7% 89%  
355 1.1% 88%  
356 0.6% 87%  
357 2% 86%  
358 2% 85%  
359 0.9% 82%  
360 1.0% 81%  
361 2% 81%  
362 1.5% 78%  
363 3% 77%  
364 2% 74%  
365 2% 71%  
366 2% 70%  
367 3% 67%  
368 3% 64%  
369 3% 61%  
370 5% 58%  
371 2% 54%  
372 3% 52% Median
373 4% 49%  
374 2% 45%  
375 3% 42%  
376 3% 39%  
377 1.1% 36%  
378 3% 35%  
379 2% 32%  
380 3% 31%  
381 1.5% 28%  
382 3% 27%  
383 2% 24%  
384 2% 22%  
385 1.2% 20%  
386 1.0% 19%  
387 1.0% 18%  
388 0.8% 17%  
389 1.0% 16%  
390 2% 15%  
391 2% 13%  
392 1.0% 11%  
393 0.7% 10%  
394 1.4% 10%  
395 0.6% 8%  
396 0.7% 8%  
397 0.8% 7%  
398 1.2% 6%  
399 0.6% 5%  
400 0.4% 4%  
401 0.4% 4%  
402 0.7% 3%  
403 0.3% 3%  
404 0.3% 3%  
405 0.6% 2%  
406 0.2% 2%  
407 0.2% 1.4%  
408 0.3% 1.2%  
409 0.2% 0.9%  
410 0.1% 0.7%  
411 0.1% 0.6%  
412 0.1% 0.5%  
413 0.1% 0.4%  
414 0.1% 0.3%  
415 0% 0.2%  
416 0% 0.2%  
417 0% 0.2%  
418 0% 0.2%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.8%  
139 0% 99.8%  
140 0% 99.8%  
141 0% 99.7%  
142 0.1% 99.7%  
143 0.1% 99.6%  
144 0.2% 99.5%  
145 0.2% 99.4%  
146 0.2% 99.2%  
147 0.1% 99.0%  
148 0.1% 98.9%  
149 0.4% 98.8%  
150 0.2% 98%  
151 0.2% 98%  
152 0.3% 98%  
153 0.7% 98%  
154 0.5% 97%  
155 0.5% 96%  
156 0.7% 96%  
157 1.0% 95%  
158 0.8% 94%  
159 0.9% 93%  
160 0.9% 92%  
161 0.8% 92%  
162 0.5% 91%  
163 2% 90%  
164 1.0% 88%  
165 1.1% 87%  
166 0.7% 86%  
167 2% 85%  
168 0.6% 84%  
169 3% 83%  
170 0.2% 80%  
171 2% 80%  
172 1.0% 78%  
173 2% 77%  
174 1.5% 74%  
175 2% 73%  
176 2% 71%  
177 3% 69%  
178 2% 67%  
179 2% 64%  
180 3% 62%  
181 3% 59%  
182 2% 56%  
183 2% 54%  
184 3% 51% Median
185 4% 48%  
186 4% 44%  
187 3% 39%  
188 2% 36%  
189 2% 34%  
190 3% 32%  
191 3% 29%  
192 1.3% 25%  
193 0.7% 24%  
194 2% 23%  
195 2% 21%  
196 1.0% 19%  
197 2% 18%  
198 2% 17%  
199 0.8% 15%  
200 1.2% 14%  
201 1.5% 13%  
202 1.4% 11%  
203 0.9% 10%  
204 0.5% 9%  
205 1.0% 9%  
206 1.0% 8%  
207 0.9% 6%  
208 0.8% 6%  
209 0.4% 5%  
210 0.7% 4%  
211 0.3% 4%  
212 0.6% 3%  
213 0.3% 3%  
214 0.4% 2%  
215 0.3% 2%  
216 0.2% 2%  
217 0.3% 1.5%  
218 0.2% 1.2%  
219 0.2% 1.0%  
220 0.2% 0.9%  
221 0.2% 0.7%  
222 0.1% 0.6%  
223 0.1% 0.4%  
224 0.1% 0.4%  
225 0.1% 0.3%  
226 0% 0.2%  
227 0% 0.2%  
228 0% 0.1%  
229 0% 0.1%  
230 0% 0.1%  
231 0% 0.1%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 0.1% 99.8%  
9 0% 99.7%  
10 0.9% 99.7%  
11 0.4% 98.8% Last Result
12 0.2% 98%  
13 0% 98%  
14 1.4% 98%  
15 2% 97%  
16 1.4% 95%  
17 4% 93%  
18 6% 89%  
19 6% 83%  
20 11% 77%  
21 7% 66%  
22 8% 59%  
23 9% 50% Median
24 8% 41%  
25 7% 33%  
26 4% 27%  
27 6% 23%  
28 4% 17%  
29 2% 13%  
30 3% 11%  
31 2% 8%  
32 2% 6%  
33 0.9% 4%  
34 0.6% 3%  
35 0.5% 3%  
36 0.6% 2%  
37 0.5% 2%  
38 0.6% 1.0%  
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.8%  
28 0% 99.8%  
29 0.2% 99.7%  
30 0.1% 99.6%  
31 0.6% 99.5%  
32 0.5% 98.9%  
33 0.3% 98%  
34 0.7% 98%  
35 0.2% 97%  
36 2% 97%  
37 0.5% 96%  
38 2% 95%  
39 1.3% 93%  
40 2% 92%  
41 5% 90%  
42 2% 85%  
43 3% 83%  
44 9% 80%  
45 1.4% 71%  
46 6% 69%  
47 2% 63%  
48 5% 62% Last Result
49 3% 57%  
50 3% 54%  
51 5% 51% Median
52 7% 46%  
53 9% 38%  
54 5% 30%  
55 9% 24%  
56 5% 15%  
57 7% 10%  
58 3% 3%  
59 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.6% 2%  
2 1.1% 1.3%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 25% 100%  
1 25% 75%  
2 23% 51% Median
3 21% 28%  
4 6% 7% Last Result
5 1.3% 1.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru 266 446 100% 428–467 422–473 417–477 408–486
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 265 445 100% 427–466 421–472 416–476 407–485
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 261 444 100% 424–465 419–471 414–475 405–484
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 254 422 100% 405–443 400–447 396–450 388–457
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 250 421 100% 403–441 398–446 394–449 385–456
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 217 396 100% 375–420 369–427 363–432 354–443
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 213 395 100% 373–419 367–425 361–430 352–441
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 206 373 100% 355–394 349–400 345–405 336–413
Labour Party 202 372 100% 352–393 347–398 343–404 334–412
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 417 234 0% 210–256 204–262 199–268 188–277
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 413 233 0% 209–254 202–260 197–266 186–275
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 376 206 0% 186–224 182–229 179–233 172–241
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 369 185 0% 164–204 158–210 154–215 145–224
Conservative Party 365 184 0% 163–202 157–208 153–213 144–222

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
266 0% 100% Last Result
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 99.9%  
401 0% 99.9%  
402 0% 99.9%  
403 0% 99.9%  
404 0.1% 99.8%  
405 0.1% 99.8%  
406 0.1% 99.7%  
407 0.1% 99.6%  
408 0.1% 99.5%  
409 0.2% 99.4%  
410 0.2% 99.3%  
411 0.2% 99.1%  
412 0.2% 98.9%  
413 0.2% 98.8%  
414 0.3% 98.5%  
415 0.3% 98%  
416 0.4% 98%  
417 0.4% 98%  
418 0.6% 97%  
419 0.3% 97%  
420 0.7% 96%  
421 0.4% 96%  
422 0.9% 95%  
423 0.8% 94%  
424 1.0% 93%  
425 1.1% 92%  
426 0.5% 91%  
427 0.8% 91%  
428 1.4% 90%  
429 1.4% 89%  
430 1.3% 87%  
431 0.8% 86%  
432 2% 85%  
433 2% 83%  
434 1.0% 82%  
435 2% 81%  
436 2% 79%  
437 0.7% 76%  
438 1.3% 76%  
439 3% 74%  
440 3% 71%  
441 3% 68%  
442 2% 66%  
443 3% 64%  
444 4% 61%  
445 4% 56%  
446 3% 52%  
447 2% 48%  
448 2% 46%  
449 3% 44% Median
450 3% 41%  
451 2% 38%  
452 2% 36%  
453 3% 33%  
454 2% 31%  
455 2% 29%  
456 1.4% 27%  
457 2% 25%  
458 0.9% 23%  
459 2% 22%  
460 0.3% 20%  
461 3% 20%  
462 0.6% 17%  
463 2% 16%  
464 0.7% 15%  
465 1.1% 14%  
466 1.0% 13%  
467 2% 12%  
468 0.5% 10%  
469 0.8% 9%  
470 0.9% 8%  
471 0.8% 8%  
472 0.9% 7%  
473 1.0% 6%  
474 0.7% 5%  
475 0.5% 4%  
476 0.5% 4%  
477 0.7% 3%  
478 0.3% 2%  
479 0.2% 2%  
480 0.2% 2%  
481 0.4% 2%  
482 0.1% 1.2%  
483 0.1% 1.1%  
484 0.2% 1.0%  
485 0.2% 0.8%  
486 0.2% 0.6%  
487 0.1% 0.5%  
488 0.1% 0.4%  
489 0% 0.3%  
490 0% 0.3%  
491 0% 0.2%  
492 0% 0.2%  
493 0% 0.2%  
494 0% 0.1%  
495 0% 0.1%  
496 0% 0.1%  
497 0% 0.1%  
498 0% 0.1%  
499 0% 0.1%  
500 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
265 0% 100% Last Result
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 99.9%  
400 0% 99.9%  
401 0% 99.9%  
402 0% 99.9%  
403 0.1% 99.8%  
404 0.1% 99.8%  
405 0.1% 99.7%  
406 0.1% 99.6%  
407 0.1% 99.5%  
408 0.2% 99.4%  
409 0.2% 99.3%  
410 0.2% 99.1%  
411 0.2% 98.9%  
412 0.2% 98.8%  
413 0.3% 98.5%  
414 0.3% 98%  
415 0.4% 98%  
416 0.4% 98%  
417 0.6% 97%  
418 0.3% 97%  
419 0.7% 96%  
420 0.4% 96%  
421 0.9% 95%  
422 0.8% 94%  
423 1.0% 93%  
424 1.1% 92%  
425 0.5% 91%  
426 0.8% 91%  
427 1.4% 90%  
428 1.4% 89%  
429 1.3% 87%  
430 0.8% 86%  
431 2% 85%  
432 2% 83%  
433 1.0% 82%  
434 2% 81%  
435 2% 79%  
436 0.7% 76%  
437 1.3% 76%  
438 3% 74%  
439 3% 71%  
440 3% 68%  
441 2% 66%  
442 3% 64%  
443 4% 61%  
444 4% 56%  
445 3% 52%  
446 2% 48%  
447 2% 46%  
448 3% 44% Median
449 3% 41%  
450 2% 38%  
451 2% 36%  
452 3% 33%  
453 2% 31%  
454 2% 29%  
455 1.4% 27%  
456 2% 25%  
457 0.9% 23%  
458 2% 22%  
459 0.3% 20%  
460 3% 20%  
461 0.6% 17%  
462 2% 16%  
463 0.7% 15%  
464 1.1% 14%  
465 1.0% 13%  
466 2% 12%  
467 0.5% 10%  
468 0.8% 9%  
469 0.9% 8%  
470 0.8% 8%  
471 0.9% 7%  
472 1.0% 6%  
473 0.7% 5%  
474 0.5% 4%  
475 0.5% 4%  
476 0.7% 3%  
477 0.3% 2%  
478 0.2% 2%  
479 0.2% 2%  
480 0.4% 2%  
481 0.1% 1.2%  
482 0.1% 1.1%  
483 0.2% 1.0%  
484 0.2% 0.8%  
485 0.2% 0.6%  
486 0.1% 0.5%  
487 0.1% 0.4%  
488 0% 0.3%  
489 0% 0.3%  
490 0% 0.2%  
491 0% 0.2%  
492 0% 0.2%  
493 0% 0.1%  
494 0% 0.1%  
495 0% 0.1%  
496 0% 0.1%  
497 0% 0.1%  
498 0% 0.1%  
499 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100% Last Result
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 99.9%  
398 0% 99.9%  
399 0% 99.9%  
400 0% 99.9%  
401 0.1% 99.8%  
402 0.1% 99.8%  
403 0.1% 99.7%  
404 0.1% 99.6%  
405 0.1% 99.6%  
406 0.2% 99.5%  
407 0.1% 99.2%  
408 0.2% 99.1%  
409 0.2% 98.9%  
410 0.2% 98.7%  
411 0.2% 98%  
412 0.3% 98%  
413 0.4% 98%  
414 0.6% 98%  
415 0.3% 97%  
416 0.5% 97%  
417 0.5% 96%  
418 0.6% 96%  
419 0.5% 95%  
420 1.0% 95%  
421 1.0% 94%  
422 0.6% 93%  
423 1.1% 92%  
424 1.0% 91%  
425 0.6% 90%  
426 2% 89%  
427 1.0% 87%  
428 0.7% 86%  
429 2% 86%  
430 1.4% 83%  
431 1.4% 82%  
432 0.6% 80%  
433 1.5% 80%  
434 3% 78%  
435 1.0% 76%  
436 3% 75%  
437 2% 72%  
438 3% 70%  
439 3% 67%  
440 3% 64%  
441 4% 61%  
442 3% 57%  
443 4% 54%  
444 3% 50%  
445 4% 48%  
446 2% 44% Median
447 2% 42%  
448 4% 40%  
449 2% 36%  
450 3% 35%  
451 2% 32%  
452 2% 30%  
453 2% 28%  
454 1.3% 26%  
455 2% 25%  
456 1.4% 22%  
457 1.0% 21%  
458 2% 20%  
459 1.3% 18%  
460 1.4% 17%  
461 0.7% 15%  
462 1.0% 15%  
463 1.3% 14%  
464 1.0% 12%  
465 2% 11%  
466 0.9% 9%  
467 0.6% 9%  
468 0.8% 8%  
469 1.0% 7%  
470 0.8% 6%  
471 0.6% 5%  
472 0.7% 5%  
473 0.8% 4%  
474 0.3% 3%  
475 0.7% 3%  
476 0.3% 2%  
477 0.2% 2%  
478 0.4% 2%  
479 0.1% 1.3%  
480 0.3% 1.2%  
481 0.2% 0.9%  
482 0.1% 0.8%  
483 0.1% 0.6%  
484 0.1% 0.6%  
485 0.1% 0.5%  
486 0.1% 0.3%  
487 0% 0.3%  
488 0% 0.2%  
489 0% 0.2%  
490 0% 0.2%  
491 0% 0.1%  
492 0% 0.1%  
493 0% 0.1%  
494 0% 0.1%  
495 0% 0.1%  
496 0% 0.1%  
497 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
254 0% 100% Last Result
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 99.9%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0.1% 99.9%  
385 0.1% 99.8%  
386 0.1% 99.8%  
387 0.1% 99.6%  
388 0.2% 99.5%  
389 0.1% 99.3%  
390 0.1% 99.2%  
391 0.2% 99.1%  
392 0.4% 98.9%  
393 0.4% 98.5%  
394 0.2% 98%  
395 0.4% 98%  
396 0.2% 98%  
397 0.5% 97%  
398 1.1% 97%  
399 0.4% 96%  
400 0.5% 95%  
401 0.9% 95%  
402 1.3% 94%  
403 1.4% 93%  
404 0.8% 91%  
405 1.1% 90%  
406 0.8% 89%  
407 1.2% 89%  
408 2% 87%  
409 2% 85%  
410 1.2% 83%  
411 1.0% 82%  
412 2% 81%  
413 1.3% 79%  
414 2% 78%  
415 2% 76%  
416 2% 74%  
417 2% 72%  
418 3% 69%  
419 6% 67%  
420 4% 61%  
421 5% 57%  
422 3% 53%  
423 2% 50%  
424 4% 48%  
425 3% 43% Median
426 4% 40%  
427 2% 36%  
428 2% 34%  
429 2% 32%  
430 3% 30%  
431 2% 26%  
432 2% 25%  
433 1.1% 23%  
434 1.3% 22%  
435 2% 20%  
436 2% 19%  
437 1.2% 17%  
438 2% 16%  
439 0.5% 14%  
440 0.8% 13%  
441 0.8% 12%  
442 2% 12%  
443 1.0% 10%  
444 2% 9%  
445 1.2% 8%  
446 0.9% 6%  
447 0.7% 5%  
448 0.9% 5%  
449 1.1% 4%  
450 0.3% 3%  
451 0.5% 2%  
452 0.6% 2%  
453 0.5% 1.4%  
454 0.1% 0.9%  
455 0.1% 0.8%  
456 0.1% 0.6%  
457 0.2% 0.5%  
458 0.1% 0.3%  
459 0.1% 0.3%  
460 0% 0.2%  
461 0% 0.2%  
462 0% 0.2%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100% Last Result
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 99.9%  
382 0% 99.9%  
383 0.1% 99.8%  
384 0.1% 99.8%  
385 0.2% 99.7%  
386 0.1% 99.5%  
387 0.2% 99.4%  
388 0.2% 99.2%  
389 0.2% 99.0%  
390 0.2% 98.9%  
391 0.3% 98.7%  
392 0.4% 98%  
393 0.3% 98%  
394 0.3% 98%  
395 0.4% 97%  
396 0.6% 97%  
397 0.7% 96%  
398 0.9% 96%  
399 0.6% 95%  
400 1.1% 94%  
401 0.9% 93%  
402 1.2% 92%  
403 1.1% 91%  
404 0.9% 90%  
405 2% 89%  
406 0.7% 87%  
407 2% 86%  
408 1.2% 84%  
409 1.4% 83%  
410 2% 81%  
411 1.5% 80%  
412 1.3% 78%  
413 2% 77%  
414 3% 75%  
415 3% 72%  
416 3% 70%  
417 4% 67%  
418 5% 63%  
419 3% 58%  
420 4% 55%  
421 4% 51%  
422 2% 47%  
423 3% 45% Median
424 3% 41%  
425 4% 39%  
426 3% 35%  
427 2% 32%  
428 2% 30%  
429 2% 28%  
430 2% 26%  
431 2% 24%  
432 1.1% 22%  
433 1.1% 21%  
434 2% 20%  
435 1.1% 18%  
436 2% 17%  
437 1.1% 15%  
438 1.2% 14%  
439 0.8% 13%  
440 1.5% 12%  
441 0.8% 10%  
442 1.3% 10%  
443 2% 8%  
444 0.8% 7%  
445 0.6% 6%  
446 1.3% 5%  
447 0.4% 4%  
448 0.6% 4%  
449 1.0% 3%  
450 0.3% 2%  
451 0.6% 2%  
452 0.2% 1.2%  
453 0.3% 1.0%  
454 0.1% 0.7%  
455 0% 0.5%  
456 0.1% 0.5%  
457 0.1% 0.4%  
458 0% 0.3%  
459 0% 0.2%  
460 0% 0.2%  
461 0% 0.2%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
217 0% 100% Last Result
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.8%  
350 0% 99.8%  
351 0.1% 99.8%  
352 0.1% 99.7%  
353 0.1% 99.6%  
354 0.1% 99.5%  
355 0.2% 99.5%  
356 0.1% 99.3%  
357 0.2% 99.2%  
358 0.2% 99.0%  
359 0.2% 98.8%  
360 0.2% 98.6%  
361 0.2% 98%  
362 0.4% 98%  
363 0.5% 98%  
364 0.4% 97%  
365 0.4% 97%  
366 0.3% 97%  
367 0.5% 96%  
368 0.6% 96%  
369 0.9% 95%  
370 0.7% 94%  
371 0.6% 94%  
372 0.5% 93%  
373 0.9% 92%  
374 1.0% 92%  
375 1.2% 91%  
376 0.8% 89%  
377 0.7% 89%  
378 1.3% 88%  
379 1.0% 86%  
380 1.3% 85%  
381 2% 84%  
382 2% 83%  
383 1.2% 81%  
384 2% 79%  
385 2% 78%  
386 1.3% 76%  
387 2% 75%  
388 3% 73%  
389 3% 70%  
390 2% 67%  
391 3% 66%  
392 4% 63%  
393 3% 59%  
394 2% 56%  
395 3% 54%  
396 2% 51%  
397 1.5% 48% Median
398 2% 47%  
399 2% 45%  
400 3% 43%  
401 2% 40%  
402 3% 39%  
403 2% 36%  
404 2% 34%  
405 3% 32%  
406 1.1% 30%  
407 2% 29%  
408 2% 27%  
409 2% 25%  
410 1.0% 23%  
411 1.2% 22%  
412 1.5% 20%  
413 1.1% 19%  
414 3% 18%  
415 0.7% 15%  
416 2% 15%  
417 1.2% 13%  
418 0.3% 12%  
419 1.2% 12%  
420 0.9% 10%  
421 0.3% 9%  
422 1.2% 9%  
423 0.7% 8%  
424 1.2% 7%  
425 0.5% 6%  
426 0.4% 6%  
427 0.3% 5%  
428 0.7% 5%  
429 0.7% 4%  
430 0.3% 3%  
431 0.3% 3%  
432 0.5% 3%  
433 0.4% 2%  
434 0.2% 2%  
435 0.1% 2%  
436 0.3% 2%  
437 0.2% 1.3%  
438 0.1% 1.1%  
439 0.2% 1.0%  
440 0.1% 0.8%  
441 0.1% 0.7%  
442 0.1% 0.6%  
443 0.1% 0.5%  
444 0.1% 0.5%  
445 0.1% 0.4%  
446 0% 0.3%  
447 0.1% 0.3%  
448 0% 0.2%  
449 0% 0.2%  
450 0% 0.2%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
213 0% 100% Last Result
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.8%  
348 0% 99.8%  
349 0.1% 99.8%  
350 0.1% 99.7%  
351 0.1% 99.7%  
352 0.1% 99.6%  
353 0.1% 99.5%  
354 0.2% 99.3%  
355 0.1% 99.1%  
356 0.2% 99.0%  
357 0.1% 98.8%  
358 0.1% 98.7%  
359 0.3% 98.6%  
360 0.4% 98%  
361 0.4% 98%  
362 0.5% 97%  
363 0.3% 97%  
364 0.4% 97%  
365 0.3% 96%  
366 0.4% 96%  
367 1.1% 96%  
368 0.8% 94%  
369 0.5% 94%  
370 0.6% 93%  
371 1.0% 93%  
372 0.7% 92%  
373 1.4% 91%  
374 0.5% 90%  
375 0.7% 89%  
376 2% 88%  
377 1.4% 87%  
378 0.9% 85%  
379 1.0% 84%  
380 2% 83%  
381 2% 82%  
382 2% 80%  
383 1.3% 78%  
384 2% 77%  
385 2% 75%  
386 2% 73%  
387 2% 71%  
388 3% 69%  
389 2% 66%  
390 3% 64%  
391 4% 61%  
392 3% 58%  
393 2% 55%  
394 2% 52%  
395 3% 51% Median
396 3% 48%  
397 2% 45%  
398 2% 43%  
399 2% 41%  
400 2% 39%  
401 3% 37%  
402 1.2% 34%  
403 2% 33%  
404 2% 31%  
405 2% 29%  
406 2% 27%  
407 1.3% 25%  
408 2% 24%  
409 1.3% 22%  
410 1.2% 21%  
411 2% 20%  
412 1.2% 18%  
413 2% 17%  
414 1.0% 15%  
415 1.1% 14%  
416 1.5% 13%  
417 1.2% 12%  
418 0.3% 10%  
419 0.6% 10%  
420 0.8% 9%  
421 1.3% 9%  
422 1.0% 7%  
423 0.6% 6%  
424 0.5% 6%  
425 0.3% 5%  
426 0.7% 5%  
427 0.4% 4%  
428 0.3% 4%  
429 0.6% 3%  
430 0.4% 3%  
431 0.3% 2%  
432 0.4% 2%  
433 0.2% 2%  
434 0.1% 2%  
435 0.2% 1.4%  
436 0.3% 1.3%  
437 0.1% 1.0%  
438 0.1% 0.9%  
439 0.1% 0.7%  
440 0.1% 0.6%  
441 0% 0.5%  
442 0.1% 0.5%  
443 0% 0.4%  
444 0.1% 0.4%  
445 0.1% 0.3%  
446 0% 0.2%  
447 0% 0.2%  
448 0% 0.2%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
206 0% 100% Last Result
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0.1% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0.1% 99.8%  
334 0.1% 99.8%  
335 0.1% 99.6%  
336 0.2% 99.6%  
337 0.1% 99.4%  
338 0.2% 99.3%  
339 0.3% 99.2%  
340 0.2% 98.9%  
341 0.3% 98.8%  
342 0.3% 98%  
343 0.3% 98%  
344 0.3% 98%  
345 0.6% 98%  
346 0.7% 97%  
347 0.5% 96%  
348 0.5% 96%  
349 0.6% 95%  
350 0.8% 95%  
351 1.1% 94%  
352 1.2% 93%  
353 0.8% 91%  
354 0.6% 91%  
355 1.1% 90%  
356 2% 89%  
357 0.6% 87%  
358 1.2% 87%  
359 2% 86%  
360 1.4% 84%  
361 0.6% 82%  
362 2% 82%  
363 2% 80%  
364 2% 78%  
365 2% 76%  
366 3% 74%  
367 2% 71%  
368 3% 69%  
369 4% 66%  
370 2% 62%  
371 4% 60%  
372 3% 56%  
373 4% 53%  
374 3% 50% Median
375 4% 47%  
376 2% 43%  
377 2% 41%  
378 4% 40%  
379 1.1% 35%  
380 2% 34%  
381 3% 32%  
382 1.2% 29%  
383 2% 28%  
384 2% 26%  
385 2% 24%  
386 2% 22%  
387 1.4% 20%  
388 1.0% 18%  
389 0.9% 17%  
390 1.1% 16%  
391 1.3% 15%  
392 2% 14%  
393 0.5% 12%  
394 2% 11%  
395 0.5% 9%  
396 1.0% 9%  
397 0.8% 8%  
398 0.5% 7%  
399 2% 7%  
400 0.3% 5%  
401 0.5% 5%  
402 0.8% 4%  
403 0.3% 4%  
404 0.3% 3%  
405 0.8% 3%  
406 0.3% 2%  
407 0.2% 2%  
408 0.3% 2%  
409 0.3% 1.2%  
410 0.1% 0.9%  
411 0.1% 0.8%  
412 0.2% 0.7%  
413 0.1% 0.5%  
414 0.1% 0.4%  
415 0% 0.3%  
416 0% 0.3%  
417 0% 0.2%  
418 0% 0.2%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0.1% 99.9%  
331 0.1% 99.8%  
332 0.1% 99.7%  
333 0.1% 99.7%  
334 0.1% 99.6%  
335 0.1% 99.5%  
336 0.2% 99.4%  
337 0.2% 99.2%  
338 0.3% 99.0%  
339 0.3% 98.7%  
340 0.2% 98%  
341 0.1% 98%  
342 0.3% 98%  
343 0.6% 98%  
344 0.5% 97%  
345 0.9% 97%  
346 0.8% 96%  
347 0.2% 95%  
348 0.4% 95%  
349 2% 94%  
350 0.7% 93%  
351 1.1% 92%  
352 1.1% 91%  
353 1.2% 90%  
354 0.7% 89%  
355 1.1% 88%  
356 0.6% 87%  
357 2% 86%  
358 2% 85%  
359 0.9% 82%  
360 1.0% 81%  
361 2% 81%  
362 1.5% 78%  
363 3% 77%  
364 2% 74%  
365 2% 71%  
366 2% 70%  
367 3% 67%  
368 3% 64%  
369 3% 61%  
370 5% 58%  
371 2% 54%  
372 3% 52% Median
373 4% 49%  
374 2% 45%  
375 3% 42%  
376 3% 39%  
377 1.1% 36%  
378 3% 35%  
379 2% 32%  
380 3% 31%  
381 1.5% 28%  
382 3% 27%  
383 2% 24%  
384 2% 22%  
385 1.2% 20%  
386 1.0% 19%  
387 1.0% 18%  
388 0.8% 17%  
389 1.0% 16%  
390 2% 15%  
391 2% 13%  
392 1.0% 11%  
393 0.7% 10%  
394 1.4% 10%  
395 0.6% 8%  
396 0.7% 8%  
397 0.8% 7%  
398 1.2% 6%  
399 0.6% 5%  
400 0.4% 4%  
401 0.4% 4%  
402 0.7% 3%  
403 0.3% 3%  
404 0.3% 3%  
405 0.6% 2%  
406 0.2% 2%  
407 0.2% 1.4%  
408 0.3% 1.2%  
409 0.2% 0.9%  
410 0.1% 0.7%  
411 0.1% 0.6%  
412 0.1% 0.5%  
413 0.1% 0.4%  
414 0.1% 0.3%  
415 0% 0.2%  
416 0% 0.2%  
417 0% 0.2%  
418 0% 0.2%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
175 0% 100%  
176 0% 99.9%  
177 0% 99.9%  
178 0% 99.9%  
179 0% 99.9%  
180 0% 99.9%  
181 0% 99.9%  
182 0% 99.8%  
183 0% 99.8%  
184 0.1% 99.8%  
185 0.1% 99.7%  
186 0% 99.6%  
187 0.1% 99.6%  
188 0% 99.5%  
189 0.1% 99.5%  
190 0.1% 99.4%  
191 0.1% 99.3%  
192 0.1% 99.1%  
193 0.3% 99.0%  
194 0.2% 98.7%  
195 0.1% 98.6%  
196 0.2% 98%  
197 0.4% 98%  
198 0.3% 98%  
199 0.4% 98%  
200 0.6% 97%  
201 0.3% 97%  
202 0.4% 96%  
203 0.7% 96%  
204 0.3% 95%  
205 0.5% 95%  
206 0.6% 94%  
207 1.0% 94%  
208 1.3% 93%  
209 0.8% 91%  
210 0.6% 91%  
211 0.3% 90%  
212 1.2% 90%  
213 1.5% 88%  
214 1.1% 87%  
215 1.0% 86%  
216 2% 85%  
217 1.2% 83%  
218 2% 82%  
219 1.2% 80%  
220 1.3% 79%  
221 2% 78%  
222 1.4% 76%  
223 2% 75%  
224 2% 73%  
225 2% 71%  
226 2% 69%  
227 1.2% 67%  
228 3% 66%  
229 2% 63%  
230 3% 61%  
231 2% 59%  
232 2% 57%  
233 3% 54%  
234 3% 52%  
235 1.5% 49%  
236 2% 48%  
237 3% 45% Median
238 4% 42%  
239 3% 39%  
240 2% 36%  
241 3% 34%  
242 2% 31%  
243 2% 29%  
244 2% 27%  
245 2% 25%  
246 1.3% 23%  
247 2% 22%  
248 2% 20%  
249 2% 18%  
250 0.9% 17%  
251 0.9% 16%  
252 1.4% 15%  
253 2% 13%  
254 0.8% 12%  
255 0.5% 11%  
256 1.3% 10%  
257 0.7% 9%  
258 1.0% 8%  
259 0.6% 7%  
260 0.5% 7%  
261 0.8% 6%  
262 1.0% 6%  
263 0.4% 4%  
264 0.3% 4%  
265 0.4% 4%  
266 0.3% 3%  
267 0.5% 3%  
268 0.4% 3%  
269 0.4% 2%  
270 0.3% 2%  
271 0.1% 1.4%  
272 0.1% 1.3%  
273 0.2% 1.2%  
274 0.1% 1.0%  
275 0.2% 0.9%  
276 0.1% 0.7%  
277 0.1% 0.5%  
278 0.1% 0.4%  
279 0% 0.3%  
280 0.1% 0.3%  
281 0% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.2%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
173 0% 100%  
174 0% 99.9%  
175 0% 99.9%  
176 0% 99.9%  
177 0% 99.9%  
178 0% 99.9%  
179 0% 99.9%  
180 0% 99.8%  
181 0% 99.8%  
182 0.1% 99.8%  
183 0% 99.7%  
184 0.1% 99.7%  
185 0.1% 99.6%  
186 0.1% 99.5%  
187 0.1% 99.5%  
188 0.1% 99.4%  
189 0.1% 99.3%  
190 0.2% 99.2%  
191 0.1% 99.0%  
192 0.2% 98.9%  
193 0.3% 98.7%  
194 0.1% 98%  
195 0.2% 98%  
196 0.4% 98%  
197 0.5% 98%  
198 0.3% 97%  
199 0.3% 97%  
200 0.7% 97%  
201 0.7% 96%  
202 0.3% 95%  
203 0.4% 95%  
204 0.5% 94%  
205 1.2% 94%  
206 0.7% 93%  
207 1.2% 92%  
208 0.3% 91%  
209 0.9% 91%  
210 1.2% 90%  
211 0.3% 88%  
212 1.2% 88%  
213 2% 87%  
214 0.8% 85%  
215 3% 85%  
216 1.1% 82%  
217 1.5% 81%  
218 1.2% 79%  
219 1.0% 78%  
220 2% 77%  
221 2% 75%  
222 2% 73%  
223 1.1% 71%  
224 2% 70%  
225 2% 68%  
226 2% 66%  
227 3% 64%  
228 2% 61%  
229 3% 59%  
230 2% 57%  
231 2% 55%  
232 1.5% 53%  
233 2% 51%  
234 3% 49%  
235 2% 46% Median
236 3% 43%  
237 4% 41%  
238 3% 37%  
239 2% 34%  
240 3% 32%  
241 3% 30%  
242 2% 27%  
243 1.3% 25%  
244 2% 24%  
245 2% 22%  
246 1.2% 20%  
247 2% 19%  
248 2% 17%  
249 1.3% 16%  
250 1.1% 15%  
251 1.4% 13%  
252 0.8% 12%  
253 0.8% 11%  
254 1.1% 11%  
255 1.0% 9%  
256 0.9% 8%  
257 0.5% 7%  
258 0.6% 7%  
259 0.7% 6%  
260 0.9% 6%  
261 0.7% 5%  
262 0.4% 4%  
263 0.3% 4%  
264 0.4% 3%  
265 0.4% 3%  
266 0.5% 3%  
267 0.4% 2%  
268 0.2% 2%  
269 0.2% 2%  
270 0.2% 1.3%  
271 0.2% 1.2%  
272 0.2% 1.0%  
273 0.1% 0.8%  
274 0.2% 0.7%  
275 0.1% 0.5%  
276 0.1% 0.4%  
277 0.1% 0.4%  
278 0% 0.3%  
279 0% 0.2%  
280 0% 0.2%  
281 0% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
161 0% 100%  
162 0% 99.9%  
163 0% 99.9%  
164 0% 99.9%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0% 99.9%  
167 0% 99.9%  
168 0% 99.8%  
169 0% 99.8%  
170 0.1% 99.8%  
171 0.1% 99.7%  
172 0.2% 99.7%  
173 0.1% 99.5%  
174 0.1% 99.4%  
175 0.1% 99.2%  
176 0.5% 99.1%  
177 0.6% 98.6%  
178 0.5% 98%  
179 0.3% 98%  
180 1.1% 97%  
181 0.9% 96%  
182 0.7% 95%  
183 0.9% 95%  
184 1.2% 94%  
185 2% 92%  
186 1.0% 91%  
187 2% 90%  
188 0.8% 88%  
189 0.8% 87%  
190 0.5% 87%  
191 2% 86%  
192 1.2% 84%  
193 2% 83%  
194 2% 81%  
195 1.3% 79%  
196 1.1% 78%  
197 2% 77%  
198 2% 75%  
199 3% 74%  
200 2% 70%  
201 2% 68%  
202 2% 66%  
203 4% 64%  
204 3% 60%  
205 4% 57%  
206 2% 52%  
207 3% 50% Median
208 5% 47%  
209 4% 43%  
210 6% 39%  
211 3% 33%  
212 2% 30%  
213 2% 28%  
214 2% 26%  
215 2% 24%  
216 1.3% 22%  
217 2% 21%  
218 1.0% 19%  
219 1.3% 18%  
220 2% 17%  
221 2% 15%  
222 1.1% 13%  
223 0.8% 11%  
224 1.1% 11%  
225 0.9% 10%  
226 1.4% 9%  
227 1.3% 7%  
228 0.8% 6%  
229 0.5% 5%  
230 0.4% 5%  
231 1.0% 4%  
232 0.5% 3%  
233 0.2% 3%  
234 0.4% 2%  
235 0.2% 2%  
236 0.4% 2%  
237 0.4% 1.5%  
238 0.2% 1.1%  
239 0.1% 0.9%  
240 0.1% 0.8%  
241 0.2% 0.7%  
242 0.1% 0.5%  
243 0.1% 0.3%  
244 0.1% 0.2%  
245 0.1% 0.2%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.8%  
141 0% 99.8%  
142 0% 99.8%  
143 0.1% 99.7%  
144 0.1% 99.7%  
145 0.1% 99.5%  
146 0.1% 99.4%  
147 0.1% 99.4%  
148 0.2% 99.2%  
149 0.3% 99.1%  
150 0.1% 98.8%  
151 0.4% 98.7%  
152 0.2% 98%  
153 0.3% 98%  
154 0.7% 98%  
155 0.3% 97%  
156 0.8% 97%  
157 0.7% 96%  
158 0.6% 95%  
159 0.8% 95%  
160 1.0% 94%  
161 0.8% 93%  
162 0.6% 92%  
163 0.9% 91%  
164 2% 91%  
165 1.0% 89%  
166 1.3% 88%  
167 1.0% 86%  
168 0.7% 85%  
169 1.3% 85%  
170 1.3% 83%  
171 2% 82%  
172 1.0% 80%  
173 1.4% 79%  
174 2% 77%  
175 1.3% 75%  
176 2% 74%  
177 2% 72%  
178 2% 70%  
179 3% 68%  
180 2% 65%  
181 4% 64%  
182 2% 60%  
183 2% 58%  
184 4% 56%  
185 3% 52%  
186 4% 49% Median
187 3% 46%  
188 4% 43%  
189 3% 39%  
190 3% 36%  
191 3% 33%  
192 2% 30%  
193 3% 28%  
194 1.0% 25%  
195 3% 24%  
196 2% 22%  
197 0.6% 20%  
198 1.4% 20%  
199 1.5% 18%  
200 2% 17%  
201 0.7% 14%  
202 0.9% 13%  
203 2% 13%  
204 0.7% 11%  
205 1.0% 10%  
206 1.1% 9%  
207 0.6% 8%  
208 1.0% 7%  
209 1.1% 6%  
210 0.5% 5%  
211 0.6% 5%  
212 0.5% 4%  
213 0.5% 4%  
214 0.3% 3%  
215 0.6% 3%  
216 0.4% 2%  
217 0.2% 2%  
218 0.2% 2%  
219 0.3% 2%  
220 0.2% 1.3%  
221 0.2% 1.1%  
222 0.1% 0.9%  
223 0.2% 0.7%  
224 0.1% 0.5%  
225 0.1% 0.4%  
226 0.1% 0.4%  
227 0.1% 0.3%  
228 0.1% 0.2%  
229 0% 0.2%  
230 0% 0.1%  
231 0% 0.1%  
232 0% 0.1%  
233 0% 0.1%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.8%  
139 0% 99.8%  
140 0% 99.8%  
141 0% 99.7%  
142 0.1% 99.7%  
143 0.1% 99.6%  
144 0.2% 99.5%  
145 0.2% 99.4%  
146 0.2% 99.2%  
147 0.1% 99.0%  
148 0.1% 98.9%  
149 0.4% 98.8%  
150 0.2% 98%  
151 0.2% 98%  
152 0.3% 98%  
153 0.7% 98%  
154 0.5% 97%  
155 0.5% 96%  
156 0.7% 96%  
157 1.0% 95%  
158 0.8% 94%  
159 0.9% 93%  
160 0.9% 92%  
161 0.8% 92%  
162 0.5% 91%  
163 2% 90%  
164 1.0% 88%  
165 1.1% 87%  
166 0.7% 86%  
167 2% 85%  
168 0.6% 84%  
169 3% 83%  
170 0.2% 80%  
171 2% 80%  
172 1.0% 78%  
173 2% 77%  
174 1.5% 74%  
175 2% 73%  
176 2% 71%  
177 3% 69%  
178 2% 67%  
179 2% 64%  
180 3% 62%  
181 3% 59%  
182 2% 56%  
183 2% 54%  
184 3% 51% Median
185 4% 48%  
186 4% 44%  
187 3% 39%  
188 2% 36%  
189 2% 34%  
190 3% 32%  
191 3% 29%  
192 1.3% 25%  
193 0.7% 24%  
194 2% 23%  
195 2% 21%  
196 1.0% 19%  
197 2% 18%  
198 2% 17%  
199 0.8% 15%  
200 1.2% 14%  
201 1.5% 13%  
202 1.4% 11%  
203 0.9% 10%  
204 0.5% 9%  
205 1.0% 9%  
206 1.0% 8%  
207 0.9% 6%  
208 0.8% 6%  
209 0.4% 5%  
210 0.7% 4%  
211 0.3% 4%  
212 0.6% 3%  
213 0.3% 3%  
214 0.4% 2%  
215 0.3% 2%  
216 0.2% 2%  
217 0.3% 1.5%  
218 0.2% 1.2%  
219 0.2% 1.0%  
220 0.2% 0.9%  
221 0.2% 0.7%  
222 0.1% 0.6%  
223 0.1% 0.4%  
224 0.1% 0.4%  
225 0.1% 0.3%  
226 0% 0.2%  
227 0% 0.2%  
228 0% 0.1%  
229 0% 0.1%  
230 0% 0.1%  
231 0% 0.1%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations