Opinion Poll by Ipsos MORI, 18–25 January 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 32.1% 52.1% 50.1–54.2% 49.5–54.8% 49.0–55.3% 48.0–56.2%
Conservative Party 43.6% 26.5% 24.8–28.4% 24.3–28.9% 23.9–29.4% 23.0–30.3%
Liberal Democrats 11.5% 9.2% 8.1–10.5% 7.8–10.8% 7.5–11.2% 7.0–11.8%
Scottish National Party 3.9% 6.1% 5.2–7.2% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–7.8% 4.4–8.4%
Green Party 2.8% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.9% 0.4–2.2%
Brexit Party 2.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%
UK Independence Party 0.1% 0.1% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.5% 0.0–0.6% 0.0–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 202 398 386–432 373–440 367–444 360–459
Conservative Party 365 150 107–166 103–178 96–186 79–198
Liberal Democrats 11 18 15–28 14–32 10–32 7–36
Scottish National Party 48 58 56–58 55–58 54–58 50–58
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 5 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–6
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0.1% 100%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.8%  
353 0% 99.8%  
354 0% 99.8%  
355 0% 99.8%  
356 0.1% 99.8%  
357 0% 99.6%  
358 0.1% 99.6%  
359 0% 99.6%  
360 0.1% 99.5%  
361 0.4% 99.4%  
362 0% 99.0%  
363 0.5% 98.9%  
364 0.1% 98%  
365 0.7% 98%  
366 0% 98%  
367 0.2% 98%  
368 1.1% 97%  
369 0.6% 96%  
370 0.5% 96%  
371 0.1% 95%  
372 0.1% 95%  
373 0% 95%  
374 0% 95%  
375 0.1% 95%  
376 1.2% 95%  
377 0% 94%  
378 0.3% 94%  
379 0.2% 93%  
380 0.9% 93%  
381 0% 92%  
382 1.0% 92%  
383 0.6% 91%  
384 0.1% 91%  
385 0.3% 90%  
386 13% 90%  
387 0.8% 77%  
388 3% 76%  
389 0.3% 73%  
390 1.0% 73%  
391 15% 71%  
392 0.9% 56%  
393 1.3% 55%  
394 1.2% 54%  
395 0.2% 53%  
396 0.9% 53%  
397 0.3% 52%  
398 3% 51% Median
399 1.0% 48%  
400 1.2% 47%  
401 2% 46%  
402 0.1% 44%  
403 0.6% 44%  
404 4% 43%  
405 0.5% 39%  
406 5% 39%  
407 0.4% 34%  
408 0.2% 33%  
409 0.4% 33%  
410 0.7% 33%  
411 3% 32%  
412 0.1% 29%  
413 3% 29%  
414 1.5% 26%  
415 0.2% 24%  
416 0.3% 24%  
417 0% 24%  
418 0.1% 24%  
419 0.7% 24%  
420 1.3% 23%  
421 0.1% 22%  
422 0.1% 21%  
423 0.2% 21%  
424 1.1% 21%  
425 4% 20%  
426 1.2% 16%  
427 0.8% 15%  
428 1.2% 14%  
429 0.1% 13%  
430 0.1% 13%  
431 0.2% 13%  
432 5% 13%  
433 0.4% 8%  
434 0% 7%  
435 0.6% 7%  
436 0% 6%  
437 0.5% 6%  
438 0.1% 6%  
439 0.1% 6%  
440 0.8% 6%  
441 1.0% 5%  
442 0.6% 4%  
443 0.4% 3%  
444 0.5% 3%  
445 0.2% 2%  
446 0% 2%  
447 0.1% 2%  
448 0.1% 2%  
449 0% 2%  
450 0.5% 2%  
451 0% 2%  
452 0% 1.5%  
453 0.1% 1.5%  
454 0.1% 1.4%  
455 0% 1.3%  
456 0.1% 1.3%  
457 0.1% 1.1%  
458 0.2% 1.1%  
459 0.4% 0.8%  
460 0% 0.5%  
461 0.1% 0.4%  
462 0% 0.3%  
463 0% 0.3%  
464 0% 0.2%  
465 0% 0.2%  
466 0.1% 0.2%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0% 99.8%  
73 0% 99.8%  
74 0% 99.8%  
75 0% 99.8%  
76 0% 99.8%  
77 0.1% 99.7%  
78 0% 99.7%  
79 0.2% 99.7%  
80 0% 99.4%  
81 0% 99.4%  
82 0.1% 99.4%  
83 0.3% 99.3%  
84 0% 99.0%  
85 0% 99.0%  
86 0.1% 99.0%  
87 0.1% 98.9%  
88 0.3% 98.9%  
89 0% 98.6%  
90 0% 98.5%  
91 0.1% 98.5%  
92 0% 98%  
93 0.2% 98%  
94 0.5% 98%  
95 0.1% 98%  
96 0.5% 98%  
97 0.3% 97%  
98 0.4% 97%  
99 0% 97%  
100 0.2% 97%  
101 0.1% 96%  
102 0.1% 96%  
103 5% 96%  
104 0.2% 92%  
105 0.6% 91%  
106 0.5% 91%  
107 0.3% 90%  
108 0.2% 90%  
109 0.1% 90%  
110 0.3% 90%  
111 0.5% 89%  
112 0.3% 89%  
113 1.1% 89%  
114 0.2% 88%  
115 1.4% 87%  
116 0.2% 86%  
117 0.1% 86%  
118 0.3% 86%  
119 0.1% 85%  
120 0.8% 85%  
121 4% 85%  
122 0.6% 80%  
123 0.2% 80%  
124 0.4% 79%  
125 0.9% 79%  
126 0.1% 78%  
127 0.3% 78%  
128 0% 78%  
129 0.1% 78%  
130 2% 77%  
131 1.2% 76%  
132 0.8% 75%  
133 0.5% 74%  
134 3% 73%  
135 3% 70%  
136 0.7% 67%  
137 0.1% 66%  
138 4% 66%  
139 0.2% 62%  
140 0.5% 61%  
141 2% 61%  
142 0.5% 59%  
143 2% 59%  
144 0.6% 57%  
145 0.6% 56%  
146 1.5% 55%  
147 0.3% 54%  
148 0.3% 53%  
149 3% 53%  
150 1.1% 50% Median
151 1.0% 49%  
152 0.2% 48%  
153 0.8% 48%  
154 0.7% 47%  
155 4% 46%  
156 0.3% 43%  
157 12% 42%  
158 0.7% 30%  
159 3% 30%  
160 0.6% 27%  
161 0.5% 26%  
162 0.2% 26%  
163 13% 26%  
164 0.7% 13%  
165 2% 12%  
166 1.1% 10%  
167 0.2% 9%  
168 0.1% 9%  
169 1.3% 9%  
170 0.7% 8%  
171 0.1% 7%  
172 0.1% 7%  
173 0.1% 7%  
174 0.3% 7%  
175 1.0% 6%  
176 0% 5%  
177 0.1% 5%  
178 0.4% 5%  
179 0% 5%  
180 0.1% 5%  
181 0.3% 5%  
182 0.1% 5%  
183 0.7% 5%  
184 1.2% 4%  
185 0.1% 3%  
186 0.1% 3%  
187 0.5% 2%  
188 0.4% 2%  
189 0% 1.5%  
190 0.7% 1.5%  
191 0% 0.8%  
192 0.1% 0.8%  
193 0% 0.6%  
194 0% 0.6%  
195 0% 0.6%  
196 0.1% 0.6%  
197 0% 0.5%  
198 0.1% 0.5%  
199 0.1% 0.4%  
200 0% 0.3%  
201 0% 0.2%  
202 0% 0.2%  
203 0% 0.2%  
204 0.1% 0.2%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 1.2% 99.8%  
8 0.1% 98.6%  
9 0% 98.6%  
10 2% 98.6%  
11 0.1% 96% Last Result
12 0.2% 96%  
13 0% 96%  
14 4% 96%  
15 7% 92%  
16 1.5% 86%  
17 19% 84%  
18 16% 65% Median
19 6% 49%  
20 7% 43%  
21 10% 36%  
22 11% 26%  
23 0.3% 15%  
24 0.6% 15%  
25 2% 14%  
26 1.4% 13%  
27 0.9% 11%  
28 0.4% 10%  
29 0.5% 10%  
30 2% 9%  
31 0.9% 7%  
32 5% 6%  
33 0.1% 1.4%  
34 0.4% 1.2%  
35 0.1% 0.8%  
36 0.3% 0.7%  
37 0.1% 0.3%  
38 0% 0.2%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
49 0% 99.6%  
50 0.3% 99.6%  
51 0.1% 99.4%  
52 0.4% 99.3%  
53 1.1% 98.9%  
54 2% 98%  
55 2% 95%  
56 4% 93%  
57 14% 89%  
58 75% 75% Median
59 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.2% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.4% 100%  
3 2% 99.6%  
4 20% 97% Last Result
5 76% 78% Median
6 1.4% 2%  
7 0.5% 0.5%  
8 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru 266 480 100% 464–523 452–527 444–534 432–549
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 265 479 100% 463–522 451–526 443–533 431–548
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 261 475 100% 458–518 445–521 438–529 426–543
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 254 461 100% 448–494 435–503 428–505 423–522
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 250 456 100% 443–489 430–498 423–501 418–517
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 217 421 100% 407–466 393–469 385–477 375–490
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 213 417 100% 402–461 387–464 380–472 370–485
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 206 403 100% 391–437 378–445 372–448 365–464
Labour Party 202 398 100% 386–432 373–440 367–444 360–459
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 417 212 0% 168–227 165–242 157–249 142–259
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 413 208 0% 163–222 160–236 152–244 137–254
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 376 168 0% 135–181 126–194 124–201 105–206
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 369 154 0% 111–171 108–184 100–191 84–203
Conservative Party 365 150 0% 107–166 103–178 96–186 79–198

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
266 0% 100% Last Result
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 99.9%  
423 0% 99.9%  
424 0% 99.9%  
425 0% 99.9%  
426 0.1% 99.9%  
427 0% 99.8%  
428 0% 99.8%  
429 0% 99.8%  
430 0% 99.8%  
431 0.1% 99.7%  
432 0.1% 99.6%  
433 0% 99.5%  
434 0.1% 99.5%  
435 0% 99.4%  
436 0% 99.4%  
437 0% 99.4%  
438 0.1% 99.4%  
439 0% 99.2%  
440 0.7% 99.2%  
441 0% 98.5%  
442 0.4% 98.5%  
443 0.5% 98%  
444 0.1% 98%  
445 0.1% 97%  
446 1.2% 97%  
447 0.7% 96%  
448 0.1% 95%  
449 0.3% 95%  
450 0.1% 95%  
451 0% 95%  
452 0.4% 95%  
453 0.1% 95%  
454 0% 95%  
455 1.0% 95%  
456 0.3% 94%  
457 0.1% 93%  
458 0.1% 93%  
459 0.1% 93%  
460 0.7% 93%  
461 1.3% 92%  
462 0.1% 91%  
463 0.2% 91%  
464 1.1% 91%  
465 2% 90%  
466 0.7% 88%  
467 13% 87%  
468 0.2% 74%  
469 0.5% 74%  
470 0.6% 74%  
471 3% 73%  
472 0.7% 70%  
473 12% 70%  
474 0.3% 58%  
475 4% 57%  
476 0.7% 54%  
477 0.8% 53%  
478 0.2% 52%  
479 1.0% 52%  
480 1.1% 51% Median
481 3% 50%  
482 0.3% 47%  
483 0.3% 47%  
484 1.5% 46%  
485 0.6% 45%  
486 0.6% 44%  
487 2% 43%  
488 0.5% 41%  
489 2% 41%  
490 0.5% 39%  
491 0.2% 39%  
492 4% 38%  
493 0.1% 34%  
494 0.7% 34%  
495 3% 33%  
496 3% 30%  
497 0.5% 27%  
498 0.8% 26%  
499 1.2% 25%  
500 2% 24%  
501 0.1% 23%  
502 0% 22%  
503 0.3% 22%  
504 0.1% 22%  
505 0.9% 22%  
506 0.4% 21%  
507 0.2% 21%  
508 0.6% 20%  
509 4% 20%  
510 0.8% 15%  
511 0.1% 15%  
512 0.3% 15%  
513 0.1% 14%  
514 0.2% 14%  
515 1.4% 14%  
516 0.2% 13%  
517 1.1% 12%  
518 0.3% 11%  
519 0.5% 11%  
520 0.3% 11%  
521 0.1% 10%  
522 0.2% 10%  
523 0.3% 10%  
524 0.5% 10%  
525 0.6% 9%  
526 0.2% 9%  
527 5% 8%  
528 0.1% 4%  
529 0.1% 4%  
530 0.2% 4%  
531 0% 3%  
532 0.4% 3%  
533 0.3% 3%  
534 0.5% 3%  
535 0.1% 2%  
536 0.5% 2%  
537 0.1% 2%  
538 0.1% 2%  
539 0% 2%  
540 0% 1.5%  
541 0.1% 1.5%  
542 0.3% 1.4%  
543 0.1% 1.1%  
544 0% 1.0%  
545 0.1% 1.0%  
546 0.2% 0.8%  
547 0% 0.6%  
548 0% 0.6%  
549 0.2% 0.6%  
550 0% 0.4%  
551 0.1% 0.3%  
552 0.1% 0.3%  
553 0% 0.2%  
554 0% 0.2%  
555 0% 0.2%  
556 0% 0.2%  
557 0% 0.2%  
558 0% 0.1%  
559 0.1% 0.1%  
560 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
265 0% 100% Last Result
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 99.9%  
422 0% 99.9%  
423 0% 99.9%  
424 0% 99.9%  
425 0.1% 99.9%  
426 0% 99.8%  
427 0% 99.8%  
428 0% 99.8%  
429 0% 99.8%  
430 0.1% 99.7%  
431 0.1% 99.6%  
432 0% 99.5%  
433 0.1% 99.5%  
434 0% 99.4%  
435 0% 99.4%  
436 0% 99.4%  
437 0.1% 99.4%  
438 0% 99.2%  
439 0.7% 99.2%  
440 0% 98.5%  
441 0.4% 98.5%  
442 0.5% 98%  
443 0.1% 98%  
444 0.1% 97%  
445 1.2% 97%  
446 0.7% 96%  
447 0.1% 95%  
448 0.3% 95%  
449 0.1% 95%  
450 0% 95%  
451 0.4% 95%  
452 0.1% 95%  
453 0% 95%  
454 1.0% 95%  
455 0.3% 94%  
456 0.1% 93%  
457 0.1% 93%  
458 0.1% 93%  
459 0.7% 93%  
460 1.3% 92%  
461 0.1% 91%  
462 0.2% 91%  
463 1.1% 91%  
464 2% 90%  
465 0.7% 88%  
466 13% 87%  
467 0.2% 74%  
468 0.5% 74%  
469 0.6% 74%  
470 3% 73%  
471 0.7% 70%  
472 12% 70%  
473 0.3% 58%  
474 4% 57%  
475 0.7% 54%  
476 0.8% 53%  
477 0.2% 52%  
478 1.0% 52%  
479 1.1% 51% Median
480 3% 50%  
481 0.3% 47%  
482 0.3% 47%  
483 1.5% 46%  
484 0.6% 45%  
485 0.6% 44%  
486 2% 43%  
487 0.5% 41%  
488 2% 41%  
489 0.5% 39%  
490 0.2% 39%  
491 4% 38%  
492 0.1% 34%  
493 0.8% 34%  
494 3% 33%  
495 3% 30%  
496 0.5% 27%  
497 0.7% 26%  
498 1.2% 25%  
499 2% 24%  
500 0.1% 23%  
501 0% 22%  
502 0.3% 22%  
503 0.1% 22%  
504 0.9% 22%  
505 0.4% 21%  
506 0.1% 21%  
507 0.6% 20%  
508 4% 20%  
509 0.8% 15%  
510 0.1% 15%  
511 0.2% 15%  
512 0.1% 14%  
513 0.2% 14%  
514 1.4% 14%  
515 0.2% 13%  
516 1.1% 12%  
517 0.3% 11%  
518 0.5% 11%  
519 0.3% 11%  
520 0.1% 10%  
521 0.2% 10%  
522 0.3% 10%  
523 0.5% 10%  
524 0.7% 9%  
525 0.2% 9%  
526 5% 8%  
527 0.1% 4%  
528 0.1% 4%  
529 0.2% 4%  
530 0% 3%  
531 0.4% 3%  
532 0.3% 3%  
533 0.5% 3%  
534 0.1% 2%  
535 0.5% 2%  
536 0.1% 2%  
537 0.1% 2%  
538 0% 2%  
539 0% 1.5%  
540 0.1% 1.5%  
541 0.3% 1.4%  
542 0.1% 1.1%  
543 0% 1.0%  
544 0.1% 1.0%  
545 0.2% 0.8%  
546 0% 0.6%  
547 0% 0.6%  
548 0.2% 0.6%  
549 0% 0.4%  
550 0.1% 0.3%  
551 0.1% 0.3%  
552 0% 0.2%  
553 0% 0.2%  
554 0% 0.2%  
555 0% 0.2%  
556 0% 0.2%  
557 0% 0.1%  
558 0.1% 0.1%  
559 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100% Last Result
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 99.9%  
417 0% 99.9%  
418 0% 99.9%  
419 0% 99.9%  
420 0.1% 99.9%  
421 0% 99.8%  
422 0.1% 99.8%  
423 0% 99.8%  
424 0% 99.8%  
425 0.1% 99.7%  
426 0.1% 99.6%  
427 0% 99.5%  
428 0.1% 99.5%  
429 0% 99.4%  
430 0% 99.4%  
431 0.1% 99.4%  
432 0.1% 99.3%  
433 0% 99.2%  
434 0.7% 99.2%  
435 0% 98.5%  
436 0.4% 98.5%  
437 0.5% 98%  
438 0.1% 98%  
439 0.1% 97%  
440 1.2% 97%  
441 0.7% 96%  
442 0.1% 95%  
443 0.2% 95%  
444 0.1% 95%  
445 0.2% 95%  
446 0% 95%  
447 0.2% 95%  
448 0.1% 95%  
449 1.0% 94%  
450 0.1% 93%  
451 0.3% 93%  
452 0.1% 93%  
453 0% 93%  
454 0.3% 93%  
455 2% 93%  
456 0.1% 91%  
457 0.3% 91%  
458 1.1% 91%  
459 2% 90%  
460 0.7% 88%  
461 13% 87%  
462 0.1% 74%  
463 0.3% 74%  
464 0.6% 74%  
465 2% 73%  
466 2% 71%  
467 12% 70%  
468 0.5% 58%  
469 4% 57%  
470 0.4% 54%  
471 0.8% 53%  
472 0.6% 52%  
473 0.2% 52%  
474 0.8% 52% Median
475 4% 51%  
476 0.2% 47%  
477 0.4% 47%  
478 0.4% 46%  
479 2% 46%  
480 0.6% 44%  
481 2% 44%  
482 0.3% 41%  
483 2% 41%  
484 0.5% 39%  
485 0.2% 39%  
486 4% 38%  
487 0.2% 34%  
488 0.2% 34%  
489 1.5% 34%  
490 3% 32%  
491 3% 30%  
492 0.8% 26%  
493 1.2% 25%  
494 1.0% 24%  
495 0.9% 23%  
496 0% 22%  
497 0.1% 22%  
498 0.3% 22%  
499 0.8% 22%  
500 0.2% 21%  
501 0.1% 21%  
502 0.9% 21%  
503 0.3% 20%  
504 4% 20%  
505 0.1% 15%  
506 0.8% 15%  
507 0.1% 14%  
508 0.1% 14%  
509 1.2% 14%  
510 0.1% 13%  
511 1.2% 13%  
512 0.5% 12%  
513 0.6% 11%  
514 0.2% 11%  
515 0.2% 10%  
516 0.2% 10%  
517 0.1% 10%  
518 0.7% 10%  
519 0.2% 9%  
520 0.7% 9%  
521 5% 8%  
522 0.1% 4%  
523 0.1% 4%  
524 0.2% 4%  
525 0% 4%  
526 0% 3%  
527 0.7% 3%  
528 0.1% 3%  
529 0.4% 3%  
530 0.6% 2%  
531 0% 2%  
532 0.1% 2%  
533 0.1% 2%  
534 0% 1.5%  
535 0.1% 1.5%  
536 0.3% 1.4%  
537 0% 1.1%  
538 0% 1.0%  
539 0.1% 1.0%  
540 0.2% 0.8%  
541 0% 0.6%  
542 0% 0.6%  
543 0.2% 0.6%  
544 0% 0.4%  
545 0.1% 0.3%  
546 0% 0.3%  
547 0% 0.3%  
548 0% 0.2%  
549 0% 0.2%  
550 0% 0.2%  
551 0% 0.2%  
552 0% 0.2%  
553 0.1% 0.1%  
554 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
254 0% 100% Last Result
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0.1% 100%  
411 0% 99.9%  
412 0% 99.9%  
413 0% 99.9%  
414 0% 99.9%  
415 0% 99.8%  
416 0% 99.8%  
417 0.2% 99.8%  
418 0% 99.7%  
419 0% 99.7%  
420 0% 99.6%  
421 0.1% 99.6%  
422 0% 99.6%  
423 0.1% 99.5%  
424 0.4% 99.4%  
425 0.4% 98.9%  
426 0.2% 98.5%  
427 0% 98%  
428 2% 98%  
429 0.1% 97%  
430 0.3% 96%  
431 0% 96%  
432 0.8% 96%  
433 0% 95%  
434 0.3% 95%  
435 0% 95%  
436 0.1% 95%  
437 0% 95%  
438 1.3% 95%  
439 0.2% 94%  
440 0% 93%  
441 0.1% 93%  
442 0.7% 93%  
443 0.6% 93%  
444 0% 92%  
445 2% 92%  
446 0% 90%  
447 0.2% 90%  
448 0.4% 90%  
449 13% 90%  
450 2% 76%  
451 2% 74%  
452 0.3% 72%  
453 2% 72%  
454 15% 70%  
455 2% 55%  
456 0% 53%  
457 0.7% 53%  
458 0.5% 52%  
459 0.9% 52%  
460 0.6% 51%  
461 3% 50% Median
462 1.4% 47%  
463 0.9% 46%  
464 1.1% 45%  
465 0% 44%  
466 0.5% 44%  
467 4% 43%  
468 2% 39%  
469 4% 37%  
470 0.1% 33%  
471 0.4% 33%  
472 0.7% 33%  
473 6% 32%  
474 0.1% 26%  
475 0.3% 26%  
476 0.6% 26%  
477 2% 25%  
478 0.2% 23%  
479 0% 23%  
480 0% 23%  
481 0% 23%  
482 0% 23%  
483 1.3% 23%  
484 0% 21%  
485 0.2% 21%  
486 0.1% 21%  
487 5% 21%  
488 0.3% 16%  
489 1.4% 16%  
490 1.3% 14%  
491 0.3% 13%  
492 0.7% 13%  
493 0.1% 12%  
494 5% 12%  
495 0.6% 7%  
496 0.4% 6%  
497 0.5% 6%  
498 0% 6%  
499 0% 6%  
500 0.1% 6%  
501 0.1% 5%  
502 0.1% 5%  
503 0.6% 5%  
504 1.3% 5%  
505 1.0% 3%  
506 0% 2%  
507 0.2% 2%  
508 0% 2%  
509 0.4% 2%  
510 0.1% 2%  
511 0% 2%  
512 0.2% 2%  
513 0% 1.5%  
514 0.1% 1.4%  
515 0.3% 1.3%  
516 0.2% 1.0%  
517 0% 0.9%  
518 0% 0.9%  
519 0% 0.8%  
520 0.1% 0.8%  
521 0% 0.8%  
522 0.5% 0.8%  
523 0% 0.3%  
524 0.1% 0.3%  
525 0.1% 0.2%  
526 0% 0.1%  
527 0% 0.1%  
528 0% 0.1%  
529 0% 0.1%  
530 0% 0.1%  
531 0% 0.1%  
532 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100% Last Result
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0.1% 100%  
406 0% 99.9%  
407 0% 99.9%  
408 0% 99.9%  
409 0% 99.9%  
410 0% 99.8%  
411 0% 99.8%  
412 0.2% 99.8%  
413 0% 99.7%  
414 0% 99.6%  
415 0% 99.6%  
416 0.1% 99.6%  
417 0% 99.5%  
418 0.1% 99.5%  
419 0.4% 99.4%  
420 0.4% 98.9%  
421 0.2% 98.5%  
422 0% 98%  
423 2% 98%  
424 0% 97%  
425 0.3% 96%  
426 0.1% 96%  
427 0.8% 96%  
428 0.3% 95%  
429 0% 95%  
430 0.1% 95%  
431 0% 95%  
432 0% 95%  
433 1.2% 95%  
434 0.1% 94%  
435 0.1% 94%  
436 0.1% 93%  
437 0.7% 93%  
438 0.6% 93%  
439 0% 92%  
440 1.2% 92%  
441 0.5% 91%  
442 0.1% 90%  
443 0.4% 90%  
444 13% 90%  
445 2% 76%  
446 2% 74%  
447 0.3% 72%  
448 2% 72%  
449 15% 70%  
450 0.9% 55%  
451 1.1% 54%  
452 0.8% 53%  
453 0.6% 52%  
454 0.6% 52%  
455 0.3% 51%  
456 3% 51% Median
457 0.7% 48%  
458 1.2% 47%  
459 2% 46%  
460 0.1% 44%  
461 0.6% 44%  
462 4% 43%  
463 1.1% 39%  
464 5% 38%  
465 0% 33%  
466 0.4% 33%  
467 0.3% 33%  
468 0.8% 32%  
469 5% 32%  
470 0.2% 26%  
471 0.5% 26%  
472 1.5% 25%  
473 1.1% 24%  
474 0% 23%  
475 0% 23%  
476 0% 23%  
477 0% 23%  
478 1.3% 23%  
479 0.2% 22%  
480 0.1% 21%  
481 0.2% 21%  
482 1.2% 21%  
483 4% 20%  
484 1.4% 16%  
485 1.0% 15%  
486 0.7% 14%  
487 0.2% 13%  
488 0.1% 13%  
489 5% 13%  
490 0.8% 8%  
491 0.8% 7%  
492 0% 6%  
493 0.1% 6%  
494 0% 6%  
495 0.3% 6%  
496 0.1% 6%  
497 0.1% 5%  
498 0.6% 5%  
499 0.9% 5%  
500 1.0% 4%  
501 0.5% 3%  
502 0.2% 2%  
503 0% 2%  
504 0.4% 2%  
505 0.1% 2%  
506 0% 2%  
507 0.2% 2%  
508 0% 1.5%  
509 0.1% 1.4%  
510 0.3% 1.4%  
511 0.1% 1.1%  
512 0% 1.0%  
513 0.1% 0.9%  
514 0% 0.9%  
515 0.1% 0.8%  
516 0% 0.8%  
517 0.5% 0.8%  
518 0% 0.3%  
519 0% 0.3%  
520 0.1% 0.2%  
521 0% 0.1%  
522 0% 0.1%  
523 0% 0.1%  
524 0% 0.1%  
525 0% 0.1%  
526 0% 0.1%  
527 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
217 0% 100% Last Result
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0% 99.9%  
365 0% 99.9%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0.1% 99.9%  
368 0% 99.8%  
369 0% 99.8%  
370 0% 99.8%  
371 0% 99.8%  
372 0.1% 99.8%  
373 0% 99.6%  
374 0% 99.6%  
375 0.1% 99.6%  
376 0% 99.5%  
377 0% 99.4%  
378 0% 99.4%  
379 0.1% 99.4%  
380 0% 99.3%  
381 0.1% 99.3%  
382 0.7% 99.2%  
383 0.5% 98.5%  
384 0.5% 98%  
385 0.1% 98%  
386 0% 97%  
387 0.1% 97%  
388 0.8% 97%  
389 0% 97%  
390 1.4% 97%  
391 0.1% 95%  
392 0% 95%  
393 0.2% 95%  
394 0.2% 95%  
395 0% 95%  
396 0% 95%  
397 1.2% 95%  
398 0.2% 93%  
399 0.1% 93%  
400 0.1% 93%  
401 0.4% 93%  
402 0.7% 93%  
403 0.7% 92%  
404 0.2% 91%  
405 0.3% 91%  
406 0.2% 91%  
407 2% 91%  
408 13% 89%  
409 1.2% 75%  
410 0.2% 74%  
411 0.5% 74%  
412 3% 74%  
413 0.6% 71%  
414 12% 70%  
415 0.5% 58%  
416 4% 57%  
417 0.9% 54%  
418 0.5% 53%  
419 0.4% 52%  
420 0.9% 52%  
421 1.2% 51% Median
422 3% 50%  
423 0.3% 47%  
424 0.4% 47%  
425 1.1% 46%  
426 0.6% 45%  
427 0.7% 45%  
428 2% 44%  
429 0.3% 42%  
430 2% 41%  
431 0.4% 39%  
432 0.5% 39%  
433 4% 39%  
434 0.1% 34%  
435 0.6% 34%  
436 1.1% 34%  
437 3% 33%  
438 3% 29%  
439 0.8% 26%  
440 1.3% 26%  
441 0.9% 24%  
442 0.2% 23%  
443 0.1% 23%  
444 0.1% 23%  
445 1.0% 23%  
446 0.5% 22%  
447 0.8% 22%  
448 0.2% 21%  
449 0.4% 21%  
450 5% 20%  
451 0.2% 16%  
452 0.7% 15%  
453 0.1% 15%  
454 0.2% 15%  
455 0.2% 14%  
456 0.9% 14%  
457 0.3% 13%  
458 0.5% 13%  
459 1.0% 12%  
460 0.5% 11%  
461 0.2% 11%  
462 0.3% 11%  
463 0.2% 10%  
464 0.1% 10%  
465 0.1% 10%  
466 0.8% 10%  
467 0% 9%  
468 0.9% 9%  
469 4% 8%  
470 0.2% 4%  
471 0.6% 4%  
472 0.2% 4%  
473 0% 4%  
474 0.4% 4%  
475 0.4% 3%  
476 0.1% 3%  
477 0.6% 3%  
478 0% 2%  
479 0.2% 2%  
480 0.2% 2%  
481 0% 2%  
482 0.1% 2%  
483 0% 1.4%  
484 0% 1.4%  
485 0% 1.4%  
486 0% 1.4%  
487 0.5% 1.3%  
488 0.1% 0.8%  
489 0.1% 0.8%  
490 0.2% 0.6%  
491 0% 0.4%  
492 0% 0.4%  
493 0% 0.4%  
494 0% 0.3%  
495 0% 0.3%  
496 0.1% 0.3%  
497 0% 0.3%  
498 0% 0.2%  
499 0% 0.2%  
500 0.1% 0.2%  
501 0% 0.1%  
502 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
213 0% 100% Last Result
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.8%  
364 0.1% 99.8%  
365 0% 99.8%  
366 0% 99.8%  
367 0.1% 99.8%  
368 0% 99.6%  
369 0% 99.6%  
370 0.2% 99.6%  
371 0% 99.5%  
372 0% 99.4%  
373 0.1% 99.4%  
374 0.1% 99.4%  
375 0% 99.3%  
376 0% 99.2%  
377 0.7% 99.2%  
378 0.4% 98.5%  
379 0.5% 98%  
380 0.2% 98%  
381 0% 97%  
382 0% 97%  
383 0.8% 97%  
384 0.1% 97%  
385 1.2% 97%  
386 0.2% 95%  
387 0.2% 95%  
388 0% 95%  
389 0.1% 95%  
390 0.2% 95%  
391 0.1% 95%  
392 1.1% 95%  
393 0.2% 93%  
394 0.1% 93%  
395 0.1% 93%  
396 0.1% 93%  
397 1.0% 93%  
398 0.6% 92%  
399 0.3% 91%  
400 0.3% 91%  
401 0.2% 91%  
402 2% 91%  
403 13% 89%  
404 1.2% 75%  
405 0.1% 74%  
406 0.4% 74%  
407 2% 74%  
408 1.4% 71%  
409 12% 70%  
410 0.6% 58%  
411 4% 58%  
412 0.4% 54%  
413 0.5% 53%  
414 0.9% 53%  
415 0.2% 52%  
416 0.9% 52% Median
417 4% 51%  
418 0.4% 47%  
419 0.4% 47%  
420 0.1% 46%  
421 2% 46%  
422 0.7% 45%  
423 2% 44%  
424 0.4% 42%  
425 2% 41%  
426 0.6% 40%  
427 0.5% 39%  
428 4% 39%  
429 0.2% 35%  
430 0.1% 34%  
431 2% 34%  
432 0.3% 33%  
433 3% 32%  
434 3% 29%  
435 1.2% 26%  
436 1.0% 24%  
437 0.2% 23%  
438 0% 23%  
439 0.1% 23%  
440 0% 23%  
441 1.3% 23%  
442 0.6% 22%  
443 0.1% 21%  
444 0.7% 21%  
445 0.5% 20%  
446 4% 20%  
447 0.1% 15%  
448 0% 15%  
449 0.9% 15%  
450 0.1% 14%  
451 1.0% 14%  
452 0.3% 13%  
453 0.6% 13%  
454 0.7% 12%  
455 0.6% 12%  
456 0.1% 11%  
457 0.6% 11%  
458 0.1% 10%  
459 0.1% 10%  
460 0.1% 10%  
461 0.6% 10%  
462 0.3% 10%  
463 0.9% 9%  
464 4% 8%  
465 0.1% 4%  
466 0% 4%  
467 0.7% 4%  
468 0% 4%  
469 0% 4%  
470 0.5% 4%  
471 0.5% 3%  
472 0.6% 3%  
473 0% 2%  
474 0.1% 2%  
475 0.3% 2%  
476 0.1% 2%  
477 0.1% 2%  
478 0% 1.5%  
479 0% 1.4%  
480 0% 1.4%  
481 0.1% 1.4%  
482 0.5% 1.3%  
483 0.1% 0.8%  
484 0.1% 0.8%  
485 0.2% 0.6%  
486 0% 0.4%  
487 0% 0.4%  
488 0% 0.4%  
489 0% 0.4%  
490 0% 0.3%  
491 0.1% 0.3%  
492 0% 0.3%  
493 0% 0.2%  
494 0% 0.2%  
495 0.1% 0.2%  
496 0% 0.1%  
497 0% 0.1%  
498 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
206 0% 100% Last Result
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0.1% 100%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0% 99.9%  
356 0% 99.9%  
357 0% 99.8%  
358 0% 99.8%  
359 0% 99.8%  
360 0% 99.8%  
361 0.1% 99.8%  
362 0% 99.7%  
363 0.1% 99.6%  
364 0% 99.6%  
365 0.2% 99.5%  
366 0.4% 99.4%  
367 0% 99.0%  
368 0.5% 98.9%  
369 0.1% 98%  
370 0.7% 98%  
371 0% 98%  
372 0.2% 98%  
373 1.1% 97%  
374 0.5% 96%  
375 0.3% 96%  
376 0.2% 95%  
377 0.1% 95%  
378 0.1% 95%  
379 0% 95%  
380 0.2% 95%  
381 1.1% 95%  
382 0.2% 94%  
383 0.1% 93%  
384 0.2% 93%  
385 0.9% 93%  
386 0% 92%  
387 2% 92%  
388 0.2% 91%  
389 0.2% 91%  
390 0.2% 90%  
391 13% 90%  
392 0.8% 77%  
393 3% 76%  
394 0.3% 73%  
395 1.1% 73%  
396 16% 71%  
397 2% 56%  
398 0% 54%  
399 1.2% 54%  
400 0.3% 53%  
401 0.9% 53%  
402 0.7% 52%  
403 3% 51% Median
404 2% 48%  
405 0.9% 46%  
406 1.1% 45%  
407 0.1% 44%  
408 0.4% 44%  
409 4% 43%  
410 2% 39%  
411 4% 38%  
412 0.4% 34%  
413 0.2% 33%  
414 0.8% 33%  
415 3% 32%  
416 0.2% 29%  
417 3% 29%  
418 0.5% 26%  
419 1.4% 26%  
420 0.4% 24%  
421 0.2% 24%  
422 0% 24%  
423 0.8% 24%  
424 0% 23%  
425 1.3% 23%  
426 0.1% 22%  
427 0.1% 21%  
428 0.2% 21%  
429 5% 21%  
430 0.5% 16%  
431 1.2% 16%  
432 1.0% 15%  
433 0.8% 14%  
434 0% 13%  
435 0.7% 13%  
436 0.2% 12%  
437 5% 12%  
438 0.4% 8%  
439 0.4% 7%  
440 0.2% 7%  
441 0.5% 6%  
442 0.3% 6%  
443 0.1% 6%  
444 0.1% 6%  
445 0.6% 5%  
446 1.3% 5%  
447 0.3% 4%  
448 0.8% 3%  
449 0.1% 2%  
450 0.2% 2%  
451 0% 2%  
452 0.1% 2%  
453 0.1% 2%  
454 0% 2%  
455 0.4% 2%  
456 0% 2%  
457 0.1% 2%  
458 0.1% 1.4%  
459 0.1% 1.3%  
460 0% 1.2%  
461 0.1% 1.2%  
462 0.1% 1.1%  
463 0.3% 1.1%  
464 0.3% 0.8%  
465 0% 0.5%  
466 0.2% 0.4%  
467 0% 0.3%  
468 0% 0.2%  
469 0% 0.2%  
470 0% 0.2%  
471 0.1% 0.2%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0.1%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0.1% 100%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.8%  
353 0% 99.8%  
354 0% 99.8%  
355 0% 99.8%  
356 0.1% 99.8%  
357 0% 99.6%  
358 0.1% 99.6%  
359 0% 99.6%  
360 0.1% 99.5%  
361 0.4% 99.4%  
362 0% 99.0%  
363 0.5% 98.9%  
364 0.1% 98%  
365 0.7% 98%  
366 0% 98%  
367 0.2% 98%  
368 1.1% 97%  
369 0.6% 96%  
370 0.5% 96%  
371 0.1% 95%  
372 0.1% 95%  
373 0% 95%  
374 0% 95%  
375 0.1% 95%  
376 1.2% 95%  
377 0% 94%  
378 0.3% 94%  
379 0.2% 93%  
380 0.9% 93%  
381 0% 92%  
382 1.0% 92%  
383 0.6% 91%  
384 0.1% 91%  
385 0.3% 90%  
386 13% 90%  
387 0.8% 77%  
388 3% 76%  
389 0.3% 73%  
390 1.0% 73%  
391 15% 71%  
392 0.9% 56%  
393 1.3% 55%  
394 1.2% 54%  
395 0.2% 53%  
396 0.9% 53%  
397 0.3% 52%  
398 3% 51% Median
399 1.0% 48%  
400 1.2% 47%  
401 2% 46%  
402 0.1% 44%  
403 0.6% 44%  
404 4% 43%  
405 0.5% 39%  
406 5% 39%  
407 0.4% 34%  
408 0.2% 33%  
409 0.4% 33%  
410 0.7% 33%  
411 3% 32%  
412 0.1% 29%  
413 3% 29%  
414 1.5% 26%  
415 0.2% 24%  
416 0.3% 24%  
417 0% 24%  
418 0.1% 24%  
419 0.7% 24%  
420 1.3% 23%  
421 0.1% 22%  
422 0.1% 21%  
423 0.2% 21%  
424 1.1% 21%  
425 4% 20%  
426 1.2% 16%  
427 0.8% 15%  
428 1.2% 14%  
429 0.1% 13%  
430 0.1% 13%  
431 0.2% 13%  
432 5% 13%  
433 0.4% 8%  
434 0% 7%  
435 0.6% 7%  
436 0% 6%  
437 0.5% 6%  
438 0.1% 6%  
439 0.1% 6%  
440 0.8% 6%  
441 1.0% 5%  
442 0.6% 4%  
443 0.4% 3%  
444 0.5% 3%  
445 0.2% 2%  
446 0% 2%  
447 0.1% 2%  
448 0.1% 2%  
449 0% 2%  
450 0.5% 2%  
451 0% 2%  
452 0% 1.5%  
453 0.1% 1.5%  
454 0.1% 1.4%  
455 0% 1.3%  
456 0.1% 1.3%  
457 0.1% 1.1%  
458 0.2% 1.1%  
459 0.4% 0.8%  
460 0% 0.5%  
461 0.1% 0.4%  
462 0% 0.3%  
463 0% 0.3%  
464 0% 0.2%  
465 0% 0.2%  
466 0.1% 0.2%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0.1% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.8%  
134 0% 99.8%  
135 0% 99.8%  
136 0.1% 99.8%  
137 0% 99.7%  
138 0% 99.7%  
139 0% 99.6%  
140 0% 99.6%  
141 0% 99.6%  
142 0.2% 99.6%  
143 0% 99.4%  
144 0.2% 99.4%  
145 0.2% 99.2%  
146 0% 99.0%  
147 0.4% 99.0%  
148 0% 98.6%  
149 0% 98.6%  
150 0.1% 98.6%  
151 0% 98.5%  
152 0% 98%  
153 0.1% 98%  
154 0.3% 98%  
155 0% 98%  
156 0.1% 98%  
157 0.5% 98%  
158 0.5% 97%  
159 0.4% 97%  
160 0.1% 96%  
161 0.1% 96%  
162 0.7% 96%  
163 0% 96%  
164 0.1% 96%  
165 4% 96%  
166 0.9% 92%  
167 0.3% 91%  
168 0.6% 90%  
169 0.1% 90%  
170 0.1% 90%  
171 0.1% 90%  
172 0.6% 90%  
173 0.1% 89%  
174 0.6% 89%  
175 0.7% 88%  
176 0.6% 88%  
177 0.3% 87%  
178 1.0% 87%  
179 0.2% 86%  
180 0.9% 86%  
181 0% 85%  
182 0.1% 85%  
183 4% 85%  
184 0.5% 80%  
185 0.7% 80%  
186 0.1% 79%  
187 0.6% 79%  
188 1.3% 78%  
189 0% 77%  
190 0.1% 77%  
191 0% 77%  
192 0.2% 77%  
193 1.0% 77%  
194 1.2% 76%  
195 3% 74%  
196 3% 71%  
197 0.3% 68%  
198 2% 67%  
199 0% 66%  
200 0.2% 66%  
201 4% 65%  
202 0.5% 61%  
203 0.6% 61%  
204 2% 60%  
205 0.4% 59%  
206 2% 58%  
207 0.7% 56%  
208 2% 55%  
209 0.1% 54%  
210 0.4% 54%  
211 0.4% 53%  
212 4% 53%  
213 0.9% 49% Median
214 0.1% 48%  
215 0.9% 48%  
216 0.5% 47%  
217 0.4% 47%  
218 4% 46%  
219 0.6% 42%  
220 12% 42%  
221 1.4% 30%  
222 2% 29%  
223 0.4% 26%  
224 0.1% 26%  
225 1.2% 26%  
226 13% 25%  
227 2% 11%  
228 0.2% 9%  
229 0.3% 9%  
230 0.3% 9%  
231 0.6% 9%  
232 1.0% 8%  
233 0.1% 7%  
234 0.1% 7%  
235 0.1% 7%  
236 0.2% 7%  
237 1.1% 7%  
238 0.1% 5%  
239 0.2% 5%  
240 0.1% 5%  
241 0% 5%  
242 0.2% 5%  
243 0.2% 5%  
244 1.2% 5%  
245 0.1% 3%  
246 0.8% 3%  
247 0% 3%  
248 0% 3%  
249 0.2% 3%  
250 0.5% 2%  
251 0.4% 2%  
252 0.7% 1.5%  
253 0% 0.8%  
254 0% 0.8%  
255 0.1% 0.7%  
256 0.1% 0.6%  
257 0% 0.6%  
258 0% 0.6%  
259 0.2% 0.5%  
260 0% 0.4%  
261 0% 0.4%  
262 0.1% 0.4%  
263 0% 0.2%  
264 0% 0.2%  
265 0.1% 0.2%  
266 0% 0.2%  
267 0.1% 0.2%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0.1%  
271 0% 0.1%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
126 0% 100%  
127 0.1% 99.9%  
128 0.1% 99.8%  
129 0% 99.8%  
130 0% 99.8%  
131 0.1% 99.7%  
132 0% 99.7%  
133 0% 99.7%  
134 0% 99.7%  
135 0% 99.6%  
136 0% 99.6%  
137 0.2% 99.6%  
138 0% 99.4%  
139 0.1% 99.4%  
140 0.2% 99.2%  
141 0% 99.0%  
142 0.3% 99.0%  
143 0% 98.6%  
144 0.1% 98.6%  
145 0.1% 98.6%  
146 0% 98.5%  
147 0% 98%  
148 0% 98%  
149 0.2% 98%  
150 0.2% 98%  
151 0.1% 98%  
152 0.5% 98%  
153 0.1% 97%  
154 0.5% 97%  
155 0.4% 97%  
156 0% 96%  
157 0.2% 96%  
158 0.6% 96%  
159 0.2% 96%  
160 4% 96%  
161 0.9% 92%  
162 0% 91%  
163 0.8% 91%  
164 0.1% 90%  
165 0.1% 90%  
166 0.2% 90%  
167 0.3% 90%  
168 0.2% 89%  
169 0.5% 89%  
170 1.0% 89%  
171 0.5% 88%  
172 0.3% 87%  
173 0.9% 87%  
174 0.2% 86%  
175 0.3% 86%  
176 0% 85%  
177 0.7% 85%  
178 0.2% 85%  
179 5% 84%  
180 0.4% 80%  
181 0.2% 79%  
182 0.8% 79%  
183 0.5% 78%  
184 1.0% 78%  
185 0.1% 77%  
186 0.1% 77%  
187 0.2% 77%  
188 0.9% 77%  
189 1.3% 76%  
190 0.8% 74%  
191 3% 74%  
192 3% 71%  
193 1.1% 67%  
194 0.6% 66%  
195 0.1% 66%  
196 4% 66%  
197 0.5% 61%  
198 0.4% 61%  
199 2% 61%  
200 0.3% 59%  
201 2% 58%  
202 0.7% 56%  
203 0.6% 55%  
204 1.1% 55%  
205 0.4% 54%  
206 0.3% 53%  
207 3% 53%  
208 1.2% 50% Median
209 0.9% 49%  
210 0.4% 48%  
211 0.5% 48%  
212 0.9% 47%  
213 4% 46%  
214 0.5% 43%  
215 12% 42%  
216 0.6% 30%  
217 3% 29%  
218 0.5% 26%  
219 0.2% 26%  
220 1.2% 26%  
221 13% 25%  
222 2% 11%  
223 0.2% 9%  
224 0.3% 9%  
225 0.2% 9%  
226 0.7% 9%  
227 0.7% 8%  
228 0.4% 7%  
229 0.1% 7%  
230 0.1% 7%  
231 0.2% 7%  
232 1.2% 7%  
233 0% 5%  
234 0% 5%  
235 0.2% 5%  
236 0.2% 5%  
237 0% 5%  
238 0.1% 5%  
239 1.4% 5%  
240 0% 3%  
241 0.8% 3%  
242 0.1% 3%  
243 0% 3%  
244 0.1% 3%  
245 0.5% 2%  
246 0.5% 2%  
247 0.7% 1.5%  
248 0.1% 0.8%  
249 0% 0.7%  
250 0.1% 0.7%  
251 0% 0.6%  
252 0% 0.6%  
253 0% 0.6%  
254 0.1% 0.5%  
255 0% 0.4%  
256 0% 0.4%  
257 0.1% 0.4%  
258 0% 0.2%  
259 0% 0.2%  
260 0% 0.2%  
261 0% 0.2%  
262 0.1% 0.2%  
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0.1%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0% 99.8%  
104 0% 99.8%  
105 0.4% 99.7%  
106 0.1% 99.4%  
107 0.1% 99.2%  
108 0% 99.2%  
109 0% 99.2%  
110 0% 99.1%  
111 0% 99.1%  
112 0% 99.1%  
113 0.2% 99.1%  
114 0.3% 98.9%  
115 0% 98.6%  
116 0% 98.5%  
117 0.3% 98.5%  
118 0% 98%  
119 0.1% 98%  
120 0.3% 98%  
121 0% 98%  
122 0.2% 98%  
123 0% 98%  
124 1.0% 98%  
125 1.3% 97%  
126 0.5% 95%  
127 0.1% 95%  
128 0.1% 95%  
129 0.1% 95%  
130 0% 94%  
131 0% 94%  
132 0.5% 94%  
133 0.4% 94%  
134 0.6% 94%  
135 5% 93%  
136 0.1% 88%  
137 0.7% 88%  
138 0.3% 87%  
139 1.3% 87%  
140 1.4% 86%  
141 0.3% 84%  
142 5% 84%  
143 0.2% 79%  
144 0.2% 79%  
145 0.1% 79%  
146 1.3% 79%  
147 0% 77%  
148 0% 77%  
149 0% 77%  
150 0% 77%  
151 0.2% 77%  
152 2% 77%  
153 0.6% 75%  
154 0.2% 74%  
155 0.2% 74%  
156 6% 74%  
157 0.7% 68%  
158 0.4% 67%  
159 0.1% 67%  
160 4% 67%  
161 2% 63%  
162 4% 61%  
163 0.5% 57%  
164 0% 56%  
165 1.1% 56%  
166 0.9% 55%  
167 1.4% 54%  
168 3% 53% Median
169 0.7% 50%  
170 0.8% 49%  
171 0.5% 48%  
172 0.7% 48%  
173 0% 47%  
174 2% 47%  
175 15% 45%  
176 2% 30%  
177 0.3% 28%  
178 2% 28%  
179 2% 26%  
180 13% 24%  
181 0.4% 10%  
182 0.2% 10%  
183 0% 10%  
184 2% 10%  
185 0% 8%  
186 0.6% 8%  
187 0.7% 7%  
188 0.1% 7%  
189 0% 7%  
190 0.2% 7%  
191 1.3% 6%  
192 0% 5%  
193 0.1% 5%  
194 0% 5%  
195 0.3% 5%  
196 0% 5%  
197 0.8% 5%  
198 0% 4%  
199 0.3% 4%  
200 0.1% 4%  
201 2% 3%  
202 0% 2%  
203 0.2% 2%  
204 0.4% 1.5%  
205 0.4% 1.1%  
206 0.1% 0.6%  
207 0% 0.5%  
208 0.1% 0.4%  
209 0% 0.4%  
210 0% 0.4%  
211 0% 0.3%  
212 0.2% 0.3%  
213 0% 0.2%  
214 0% 0.2%  
215 0% 0.2%  
216 0% 0.1%  
217 0% 0.1%  
218 0% 0.1%  
219 0.1% 0.1%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0% 99.9%  
76 0% 99.8%  
77 0% 99.8%  
78 0% 99.8%  
79 0% 99.8%  
80 0% 99.8%  
81 0.1% 99.8%  
82 0.1% 99.7%  
83 0% 99.7%  
84 0.2% 99.6%  
85 0% 99.4%  
86 0% 99.4%  
87 0.1% 99.4%  
88 0.3% 99.3%  
89 0% 99.0%  
90 0.1% 99.0%  
91 0% 99.0%  
92 0.1% 98.9%  
93 0.3% 98.9%  
94 0% 98.6%  
95 0% 98.5%  
96 0.1% 98.5%  
97 0% 98%  
98 0.1% 98%  
99 0.5% 98%  
100 0.4% 98%  
101 0.1% 97%  
102 0.7% 97%  
103 0% 97%  
104 0% 97%  
105 0.2% 96%  
106 0.1% 96%  
107 0.1% 96%  
108 5% 96%  
109 0.7% 92%  
110 0.1% 91%  
111 0.7% 91%  
112 0.1% 90%  
113 0.2% 90%  
114 0.2% 90%  
115 0.2% 90%  
116 0.6% 89%  
117 0.5% 89%  
118 1.2% 88%  
119 0.1% 87%  
120 1.2% 87%  
121 0.1% 86%  
122 0.1% 86%  
123 0.8% 86%  
124 0.1% 85%  
125 4% 85%  
126 0.3% 80%  
127 0.9% 80%  
128 0.1% 79%  
129 0.2% 79%  
130 0.8% 79%  
131 0.3% 78%  
132 0.1% 78%  
133 0% 78%  
134 0.9% 78%  
135 1.0% 77%  
136 1.2% 76%  
137 0.8% 75%  
138 3% 74%  
139 3% 70%  
140 2% 68%  
141 0.1% 66%  
142 0.2% 66%  
143 4% 66%  
144 0.2% 62%  
145 0.5% 61%  
146 2% 61%  
147 0.3% 59%  
148 2% 59%  
149 0.6% 56%  
150 2% 56%  
151 0.4% 54%  
152 0.4% 54%  
153 0.3% 53%  
154 4% 53%  
155 0.8% 49% Median
156 0.2% 48%  
157 0.6% 48%  
158 0.8% 48%  
159 0.4% 47%  
160 4% 46%  
161 0.5% 43%  
162 12% 42%  
163 2% 30%  
164 2% 29%  
165 0.6% 27%  
166 0.3% 26%  
167 0.1% 26%  
168 13% 26%  
169 0.7% 13%  
170 2% 12%  
171 1.1% 10%  
172 0.3% 9%  
173 0.1% 9%  
174 2% 9%  
175 0.3% 7%  
176 0% 7%  
177 0.1% 7%  
178 0.3% 7%  
179 0.1% 7%  
180 1.0% 7%  
181 0.1% 6%  
182 0.2% 5%  
183 0% 5%  
184 0.2% 5%  
185 0.1% 5%  
186 0.2% 5%  
187 0.1% 5%  
188 0.7% 5%  
189 1.2% 4%  
190 0.1% 3%  
191 0.1% 3%  
192 0.5% 2%  
193 0.4% 2%  
194 0% 1.5%  
195 0.7% 1.5%  
196 0% 0.8%  
197 0.1% 0.8%  
198 0.1% 0.7%  
199 0% 0.6%  
200 0% 0.6%  
201 0.1% 0.6%  
202 0% 0.5%  
203 0.1% 0.5%  
204 0.1% 0.4%  
205 0% 0.3%  
206 0% 0.2%  
207 0.1% 0.2%  
208 0% 0.2%  
209 0.1% 0.2%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0.1%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0% 99.8%  
73 0% 99.8%  
74 0% 99.8%  
75 0% 99.8%  
76 0% 99.8%  
77 0.1% 99.7%  
78 0% 99.7%  
79 0.2% 99.7%  
80 0% 99.4%  
81 0% 99.4%  
82 0.1% 99.4%  
83 0.3% 99.3%  
84 0% 99.0%  
85 0% 99.0%  
86 0.1% 99.0%  
87 0.1% 98.9%  
88 0.3% 98.9%  
89 0% 98.6%  
90 0% 98.5%  
91 0.1% 98.5%  
92 0% 98%  
93 0.2% 98%  
94 0.5% 98%  
95 0.1% 98%  
96 0.5% 98%  
97 0.3% 97%  
98 0.4% 97%  
99 0% 97%  
100 0.2% 97%  
101 0.1% 96%  
102 0.1% 96%  
103 5% 96%  
104 0.2% 92%  
105 0.6% 91%  
106 0.5% 91%  
107 0.3% 90%  
108 0.2% 90%  
109 0.1% 90%  
110 0.3% 90%  
111 0.5% 89%  
112 0.3% 89%  
113 1.1% 89%  
114 0.2% 88%  
115 1.4% 87%  
116 0.2% 86%  
117 0.1% 86%  
118 0.3% 86%  
119 0.1% 85%  
120 0.8% 85%  
121 4% 85%  
122 0.6% 80%  
123 0.2% 80%  
124 0.4% 79%  
125 0.9% 79%  
126 0.1% 78%  
127 0.3% 78%  
128 0% 78%  
129 0.1% 78%  
130 2% 77%  
131 1.2% 76%  
132 0.8% 75%  
133 0.5% 74%  
134 3% 73%  
135 3% 70%  
136 0.7% 67%  
137 0.1% 66%  
138 4% 66%  
139 0.2% 62%  
140 0.5% 61%  
141 2% 61%  
142 0.5% 59%  
143 2% 59%  
144 0.6% 57%  
145 0.6% 56%  
146 1.5% 55%  
147 0.3% 54%  
148 0.3% 53%  
149 3% 53%  
150 1.1% 50% Median
151 1.0% 49%  
152 0.2% 48%  
153 0.8% 48%  
154 0.7% 47%  
155 4% 46%  
156 0.3% 43%  
157 12% 42%  
158 0.7% 30%  
159 3% 30%  
160 0.6% 27%  
161 0.5% 26%  
162 0.2% 26%  
163 13% 26%  
164 0.7% 13%  
165 2% 12%  
166 1.1% 10%  
167 0.2% 9%  
168 0.1% 9%  
169 1.3% 9%  
170 0.7% 8%  
171 0.1% 7%  
172 0.1% 7%  
173 0.1% 7%  
174 0.3% 7%  
175 1.0% 6%  
176 0% 5%  
177 0.1% 5%  
178 0.4% 5%  
179 0% 5%  
180 0.1% 5%  
181 0.3% 5%  
182 0.1% 5%  
183 0.7% 5%  
184 1.2% 4%  
185 0.1% 3%  
186 0.1% 3%  
187 0.5% 2%  
188 0.4% 2%  
189 0% 1.5%  
190 0.7% 1.5%  
191 0% 0.8%  
192 0.1% 0.8%  
193 0% 0.6%  
194 0% 0.6%  
195 0% 0.6%  
196 0.1% 0.6%  
197 0% 0.5%  
198 0.1% 0.5%  
199 0.1% 0.4%  
200 0% 0.3%  
201 0% 0.2%  
202 0% 0.2%  
203 0% 0.2%  
204 0.1% 0.2%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations