Opinion Poll by Savanta, 24–26 February 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 32.1% 45.9% 44.5–47.3% 44.1–47.7% 43.8–48.0% 43.1–48.7%
Conservative Party 43.6% 30.2% 29.0–31.5% 28.6–31.9% 28.3–32.2% 27.7–32.8%
Liberal Democrats 11.5% 9.4% 8.6–10.2% 8.4–10.5% 8.2–10.7% 7.8–11.1%
Scottish National Party 3.9% 4.2% 3.7–4.8% 3.5–5.0% 3.4–5.1% 3.2–5.4%
Brexit Party 2.0% 2.7% 2.3–3.2% 2.2–3.4% 2.1–3.5% 1.9–3.8%
Green Party 2.8% 2.4% 2.1–2.9% 2.0–3.1% 1.9–3.2% 1.7–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 202 351 336–369 332–373 329–376 325–384
Conservative Party 365 208 190–224 186–228 183–230 175–235
Liberal Democrats 11 16 10–20 7–22 7–23 7–26
Scottish National Party 48 53 44–57 43–57 40–58 34–58
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0–2
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0.1% 100%  
323 0.1% 99.9%  
324 0.1% 99.8%  
325 0.2% 99.7%  
326 0.1% 99.5% Majority
327 0.3% 99.3%  
328 0.5% 99.1%  
329 1.1% 98.6%  
330 0.9% 97%  
331 1.0% 97%  
332 1.2% 96%  
333 1.2% 94%  
334 1.1% 93%  
335 2% 92%  
336 2% 91%  
337 2% 89%  
338 2% 86%  
339 2% 84%  
340 2% 82%  
341 2% 80%  
342 2% 78%  
343 3% 76%  
344 3% 73%  
345 3% 70%  
346 3% 67%  
347 4% 64%  
348 2% 61%  
349 3% 58%  
350 3% 56%  
351 3% 53% Median
352 3% 49%  
353 4% 47%  
354 3% 43%  
355 3% 40%  
356 2% 37%  
357 2% 35%  
358 2% 33%  
359 2% 31%  
360 3% 29%  
361 2% 27%  
362 2% 24%  
363 2% 22%  
364 2% 20%  
365 3% 17%  
366 2% 15%  
367 1.1% 13%  
368 2% 12%  
369 0.9% 10%  
370 2% 9%  
371 1.0% 7%  
372 1.4% 6%  
373 0.9% 5%  
374 0.7% 4%  
375 0.7% 4%  
376 0.4% 3%  
377 0.5% 2%  
378 0.4% 2%  
379 0.3% 1.5%  
380 0.2% 1.2%  
381 0.2% 1.0%  
382 0.2% 0.8%  
383 0.1% 0.6%  
384 0.1% 0.5%  
385 0.1% 0.4%  
386 0% 0.3%  
387 0.1% 0.3%  
388 0% 0.2%  
389 0% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
164 0% 100%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0% 99.9%  
167 0% 99.9%  
168 0% 99.9%  
169 0% 99.9%  
170 0% 99.8%  
171 0.1% 99.8%  
172 0% 99.7%  
173 0.1% 99.7%  
174 0.1% 99.6%  
175 0.1% 99.5%  
176 0.1% 99.4%  
177 0.2% 99.4%  
178 0.1% 99.2%  
179 0.2% 99.0%  
180 0.3% 98.8%  
181 0.4% 98.5%  
182 0.5% 98%  
183 0.5% 98%  
184 0.3% 97%  
185 1.1% 97%  
186 0.7% 96%  
187 1.3% 95%  
188 2% 94%  
189 1.3% 92%  
190 2% 91%  
191 2% 88%  
192 2% 86%  
193 2% 85%  
194 2% 82%  
195 2% 80%  
196 1.0% 78%  
197 2% 77%  
198 3% 75%  
199 2% 73%  
200 2% 71%  
201 2% 69%  
202 3% 67%  
203 2% 63%  
204 3% 61%  
205 2% 58%  
206 2% 56%  
207 3% 53%  
208 3% 50% Median
209 3% 47%  
210 3% 44%  
211 3% 41%  
212 3% 37%  
213 4% 35%  
214 2% 31%  
215 2% 28%  
216 3% 27%  
217 2% 24%  
218 2% 22%  
219 2% 20%  
220 3% 18%  
221 3% 15%  
222 0.7% 13%  
223 1.3% 12%  
224 2% 11%  
225 2% 9%  
226 0.8% 7%  
227 1.1% 6%  
228 1.0% 5%  
229 1.2% 4%  
230 0.8% 3%  
231 0.3% 2%  
232 0.6% 2%  
233 0.7% 1.4%  
234 0.2% 0.8%  
235 0.1% 0.5%  
236 0.1% 0.4%  
237 0.1% 0.3%  
238 0% 0.2%  
239 0.1% 0.1%  
240 0% 0.1%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 5% 99.8%  
8 1.1% 95%  
9 0.3% 94%  
10 11% 93%  
11 4% 82% Last Result
12 2% 79%  
13 0.5% 77%  
14 9% 76%  
15 14% 68%  
16 10% 54% Median
17 12% 44%  
18 10% 32%  
19 7% 22%  
20 6% 14%  
21 3% 9%  
22 2% 6%  
23 2% 4%  
24 0.9% 2%  
25 0.5% 1.2%  
26 0.2% 0.6%  
27 0.2% 0.4%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.1% 99.8%  
33 0.2% 99.7%  
34 0.1% 99.6%  
35 0.2% 99.5%  
36 0.3% 99.2%  
37 0.2% 99.0%  
38 0.3% 98.8%  
39 0.5% 98%  
40 0.5% 98%  
41 0.9% 97%  
42 1.4% 96%  
43 2% 95%  
44 4% 93%  
45 3% 89%  
46 4% 86%  
47 3% 82%  
48 3% 78% Last Result
49 3% 75%  
50 3% 72%  
51 4% 69%  
52 8% 65%  
53 10% 56% Median
54 11% 46%  
55 13% 35%  
56 7% 23%  
57 13% 16%  
58 3% 3%  
59 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 1.0%  
2 0.6% 0.6%  
3 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 99.9% 99.9% Last Result, Median
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 261 418 100% 402–436 398–440 396–443 391–451
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 250 403 100% 389–418 386–422 384–424 380–431
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 213 367 100% 349–386 344–391 341–395 336–404
Labour Party 202 351 99.5% 336–369 332–373 329–376 325–384
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 413 259 0% 240–277 235–282 231–284 222–290
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 376 223 0% 208–237 204–240 202–242 195–246
Conservative Party 365 208 0% 190–224 186–228 183–230 175–235

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100% Last Result
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0.1% 99.9%  
388 0.1% 99.8%  
389 0.1% 99.8%  
390 0.2% 99.7%  
391 0.1% 99.6%  
392 0.2% 99.4%  
393 0.7% 99.2%  
394 0.6% 98.6%  
395 0.3% 98%  
396 0.8% 98%  
397 1.2% 97%  
398 1.0% 96%  
399 1.1% 95%  
400 0.9% 94%  
401 2% 93%  
402 2% 91%  
403 1.3% 89%  
404 0.7% 88%  
405 3% 87%  
406 3% 85%  
407 2% 82%  
408 2% 80%  
409 2% 78%  
410 3% 76%  
411 2% 73%  
412 2% 71%  
413 4% 69%  
414 3% 65%  
415 3% 62%  
416 3% 59%  
417 3% 56%  
418 3% 53%  
419 3% 50%  
420 2% 47% Median
421 2% 44%  
422 3% 42%  
423 2% 39%  
424 3% 37%  
425 2% 33%  
426 2% 31%  
427 2% 29%  
428 3% 27%  
429 2% 25%  
430 1.0% 23%  
431 2% 22%  
432 2% 20%  
433 2% 18%  
434 2% 15%  
435 2% 14%  
436 2% 12%  
437 1.3% 9%  
438 2% 8%  
439 1.3% 6%  
440 0.7% 5%  
441 1.1% 4%  
442 0.3% 3%  
443 0.5% 3%  
444 0.5% 2%  
445 0.4% 2%  
446 0.3% 1.5%  
447 0.2% 1.2%  
448 0.1% 1.0%  
449 0.2% 0.8%  
450 0.1% 0.6%  
451 0.1% 0.6%  
452 0.1% 0.5%  
453 0.1% 0.4%  
454 0% 0.3%  
455 0.1% 0.3%  
456 0% 0.2%  
457 0% 0.2%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100% Last Result
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0.1% 99.9%  
378 0.1% 99.8%  
379 0.2% 99.7%  
380 0.3% 99.5%  
381 0.3% 99.2%  
382 0.5% 99.0%  
383 0.5% 98%  
384 0.9% 98%  
385 2% 97%  
386 2% 96%  
387 2% 93%  
388 0.6% 91%  
389 1.1% 90%  
390 2% 89%  
391 3% 87%  
392 3% 84%  
393 2% 81%  
394 1.3% 79%  
395 3% 78%  
396 3% 75%  
397 2% 72%  
398 4% 70%  
399 4% 66%  
400 3% 62%  
401 5% 59%  
402 3% 53%  
403 2% 50%  
404 3% 48% Median
405 3% 45%  
406 3% 42%  
407 4% 39%  
408 3% 35%  
409 3% 33%  
410 3% 30%  
411 1.1% 27%  
412 1.3% 26%  
413 2% 25%  
414 2% 23%  
415 1.0% 20%  
416 2% 19%  
417 3% 17%  
418 5% 14%  
419 2% 9%  
420 1.0% 7%  
421 1.0% 6%  
422 1.2% 5%  
423 1.2% 4%  
424 0.5% 3%  
425 0.5% 2%  
426 0.2% 2%  
427 0.4% 2%  
428 0.2% 1.2%  
429 0.3% 1.0%  
430 0.1% 0.7%  
431 0.1% 0.6%  
432 0% 0.5%  
433 0.1% 0.5%  
434 0% 0.4%  
435 0.1% 0.3%  
436 0% 0.2%  
437 0% 0.2%  
438 0% 0.2%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
213 0% 100% Last Result
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0.1% 99.9%  
333 0.1% 99.8%  
334 0.1% 99.8%  
335 0.1% 99.7%  
336 0.2% 99.6%  
337 0.3% 99.4%  
338 0.3% 99.1%  
339 0.4% 98.8%  
340 0.6% 98%  
341 0.3% 98%  
342 0.9% 97%  
343 0.8% 97%  
344 1.2% 96%  
345 0.8% 95%  
346 0.7% 94%  
347 1.2% 93%  
348 1.2% 92%  
349 1.4% 91%  
350 2% 89%  
351 2% 87%  
352 2% 86%  
353 2% 84%  
354 1.3% 82%  
355 2% 81%  
356 2% 79%  
357 2% 77%  
358 3% 75%  
359 3% 72%  
360 3% 69%  
361 3% 66%  
362 2% 64%  
363 2% 61%  
364 3% 59%  
365 3% 56%  
366 2% 53%  
367 3% 52% Median
368 3% 49%  
369 3% 46%  
370 3% 43%  
371 2% 41%  
372 2% 38%  
373 2% 36%  
374 2% 34%  
375 2% 32%  
376 2% 30%  
377 2% 28%  
378 2% 26%  
379 3% 24%  
380 2% 21%  
381 1.5% 19%  
382 1.5% 18%  
383 2% 16%  
384 2% 14%  
385 2% 13%  
386 1.3% 11%  
387 1.0% 10%  
388 1.0% 9%  
389 1.2% 8%  
390 0.9% 6%  
391 0.9% 6%  
392 0.8% 5%  
393 0.5% 4%  
394 0.5% 3%  
395 0.6% 3%  
396 0.5% 2%  
397 0.3% 2%  
398 0.2% 2%  
399 0.3% 1.5%  
400 0.2% 1.2%  
401 0.1% 1.0%  
402 0.2% 0.8%  
403 0.1% 0.7%  
404 0.1% 0.5%  
405 0.1% 0.5%  
406 0.1% 0.4%  
407 0.1% 0.3%  
408 0% 0.3%  
409 0% 0.2%  
410 0% 0.2%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0.1% 100%  
323 0.1% 99.9%  
324 0.1% 99.8%  
325 0.2% 99.7%  
326 0.1% 99.5% Majority
327 0.3% 99.3%  
328 0.5% 99.1%  
329 1.1% 98.6%  
330 0.9% 97%  
331 1.0% 97%  
332 1.2% 96%  
333 1.2% 94%  
334 1.1% 93%  
335 2% 92%  
336 2% 91%  
337 2% 89%  
338 2% 86%  
339 2% 84%  
340 2% 82%  
341 2% 80%  
342 2% 78%  
343 3% 76%  
344 3% 73%  
345 3% 70%  
346 3% 67%  
347 4% 64%  
348 2% 61%  
349 3% 58%  
350 3% 56%  
351 3% 53% Median
352 3% 49%  
353 4% 47%  
354 3% 43%  
355 3% 40%  
356 2% 37%  
357 2% 35%  
358 2% 33%  
359 2% 31%  
360 3% 29%  
361 2% 27%  
362 2% 24%  
363 2% 22%  
364 2% 20%  
365 3% 17%  
366 2% 15%  
367 1.1% 13%  
368 2% 12%  
369 0.9% 10%  
370 2% 9%  
371 1.0% 7%  
372 1.4% 6%  
373 0.9% 5%  
374 0.7% 4%  
375 0.7% 4%  
376 0.4% 3%  
377 0.5% 2%  
378 0.4% 2%  
379 0.3% 1.5%  
380 0.2% 1.2%  
381 0.2% 1.0%  
382 0.2% 0.8%  
383 0.1% 0.6%  
384 0.1% 0.5%  
385 0.1% 0.4%  
386 0% 0.3%  
387 0.1% 0.3%  
388 0% 0.2%  
389 0% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 99.9%  
212 0% 99.9%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0% 99.8%  
218 0% 99.8%  
219 0.1% 99.7%  
220 0.1% 99.7%  
221 0.1% 99.6%  
222 0.1% 99.5%  
223 0.1% 99.5%  
224 0.2% 99.3%  
225 0.1% 99.2%  
226 0.2% 99.0%  
227 0.3% 98.8%  
228 0.2% 98.5%  
229 0.3% 98%  
230 0.5% 98%  
231 0.6% 98%  
232 0.5% 97%  
233 0.5% 97%  
234 0.8% 96%  
235 0.9% 95%  
236 0.9% 94%  
237 1.2% 94%  
238 1.0% 92%  
239 1.0% 91%  
240 1.3% 90%  
241 2% 89%  
242 2% 87%  
243 2% 86%  
244 1.5% 84%  
245 1.5% 82%  
246 2% 81%  
247 3% 79%  
248 2% 76%  
249 2% 74%  
250 2% 72%  
251 2% 70%  
252 2% 68%  
253 2% 66%  
254 2% 64%  
255 2% 61%  
256 3% 59%  
257 3% 57%  
258 3% 54%  
259 3% 51%  
260 2% 48%  
261 3% 46% Median
262 3% 44%  
263 2% 41%  
264 2% 39%  
265 3% 36%  
266 3% 34%  
267 3% 31%  
268 3% 28%  
269 2% 25%  
270 2% 23%  
271 2% 21%  
272 1.3% 19%  
273 2% 18%  
274 2% 16%  
275 2% 14%  
276 2% 13%  
277 1.4% 11%  
278 1.2% 9%  
279 1.2% 8%  
280 0.7% 7%  
281 0.8% 6%  
282 1.2% 5%  
283 0.8% 4%  
284 0.9% 3%  
285 0.3% 2%  
286 0.6% 2%  
287 0.4% 2%  
288 0.3% 1.2%  
289 0.3% 0.9%  
290 0.2% 0.6%  
291 0.1% 0.4%  
292 0.1% 0.3%  
293 0.1% 0.2%  
294 0.1% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
184 0% 100%  
185 0% 99.9%  
186 0% 99.9%  
187 0% 99.9%  
188 0% 99.9%  
189 0% 99.8%  
190 0% 99.8%  
191 0.1% 99.8%  
192 0% 99.7%  
193 0.1% 99.6%  
194 0% 99.5%  
195 0.1% 99.5%  
196 0.1% 99.4%  
197 0.3% 99.3%  
198 0.2% 99.0%  
199 0.4% 98.8%  
200 0.2% 98%  
201 0.5% 98%  
202 0.5% 98%  
203 1.2% 97%  
204 1.2% 96%  
205 1.0% 95%  
206 1.0% 94%  
207 2% 93%  
208 5% 91%  
209 3% 86%  
210 2% 83%  
211 1.0% 81%  
212 2% 80%  
213 2% 77%  
214 1.3% 75%  
215 1.1% 74%  
216 3% 73%  
217 3% 70%  
218 3% 67%  
219 4% 65%  
220 3% 61%  
221 3% 58%  
222 3% 55%  
223 2% 52%  
224 3% 49% Median
225 5% 47%  
226 3% 41%  
227 4% 38%  
228 4% 34%  
229 2% 30%  
230 3% 28%  
231 3% 25%  
232 1.3% 22%  
233 2% 21%  
234 3% 19%  
235 3% 16%  
236 2% 12%  
237 1.0% 11%  
238 0.6% 9%  
239 2% 9%  
240 2% 7%  
241 2% 4%  
242 0.9% 3%  
243 0.5% 2%  
244 0.5% 1.5%  
245 0.3% 1.0%  
246 0.3% 0.8%  
247 0.2% 0.5%  
248 0.1% 0.3%  
249 0.1% 0.2%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
164 0% 100%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0% 99.9%  
167 0% 99.9%  
168 0% 99.9%  
169 0% 99.9%  
170 0% 99.8%  
171 0.1% 99.8%  
172 0% 99.7%  
173 0.1% 99.7%  
174 0.1% 99.6%  
175 0.1% 99.5%  
176 0.1% 99.4%  
177 0.2% 99.4%  
178 0.1% 99.2%  
179 0.2% 99.0%  
180 0.3% 98.8%  
181 0.4% 98.5%  
182 0.5% 98%  
183 0.5% 98%  
184 0.3% 97%  
185 1.1% 97%  
186 0.7% 96%  
187 1.3% 95%  
188 2% 94%  
189 1.3% 92%  
190 2% 91%  
191 2% 88%  
192 2% 86%  
193 2% 85%  
194 2% 82%  
195 2% 80%  
196 1.0% 78%  
197 2% 77%  
198 3% 75%  
199 2% 73%  
200 2% 71%  
201 2% 69%  
202 3% 67%  
203 2% 63%  
204 3% 61%  
205 2% 58%  
206 2% 56%  
207 3% 53%  
208 3% 50% Median
209 3% 47%  
210 3% 44%  
211 3% 41%  
212 3% 37%  
213 4% 35%  
214 2% 31%  
215 2% 28%  
216 3% 27%  
217 2% 24%  
218 2% 22%  
219 2% 20%  
220 3% 18%  
221 3% 15%  
222 0.7% 13%  
223 1.3% 12%  
224 2% 11%  
225 2% 9%  
226 0.8% 7%  
227 1.1% 6%  
228 1.0% 5%  
229 1.2% 4%  
230 0.8% 3%  
231 0.3% 2%  
232 0.6% 2%  
233 0.7% 1.4%  
234 0.2% 0.8%  
235 0.1% 0.5%  
236 0.1% 0.4%  
237 0.1% 0.3%  
238 0% 0.2%  
239 0.1% 0.1%  
240 0% 0.1%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations