Opinion Poll by More in Common, 6–11 April 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 32.1% 45.9% 44.4–47.4% 44.0–47.8% 43.7–48.1% 43.0–48.8%
Conservative Party 43.6% 31.3% 30.0–32.7% 29.6–33.1% 29.3–33.4% 28.7–34.1%
Liberal Democrats 11.5% 10.5% 9.6–11.4% 9.4–11.7% 9.2–11.9% 8.8–12.4%
Green Party 2.8% 4.9% 4.3–5.6% 4.2–5.8% 4.0–5.9% 3.8–6.3%
Scottish National Party 3.9% 3.1% 2.7–3.7% 2.5–3.8% 2.4–4.0% 2.2–4.3%
Brexit Party 2.0% 2.2% 1.9–2.7% 1.8–2.9% 1.7–3.0% 1.5–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 202 355 340–373 337–378 334–382 329–389
Conservative Party 365 215 197–230 191–233 188–236 181–242
Liberal Democrats 11 23 18–27 16–28 13–29 11–33
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Scottish National Party 48 33 22–44 19–46 17–50 12–53
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 99.9%  
325 0.1% 99.9%  
326 0.1% 99.9% Majority
327 0.1% 99.7%  
328 0.1% 99.7%  
329 0.2% 99.5%  
330 0.2% 99.4%  
331 0.3% 99.2%  
332 0.3% 98.9%  
333 0.7% 98.6%  
334 0.6% 98%  
335 0.6% 97%  
336 0.7% 97%  
337 0.9% 96%  
338 1.5% 95%  
339 2% 93%  
340 2% 92%  
341 2% 90%  
342 3% 88%  
343 2% 85%  
344 3% 83%  
345 3% 81%  
346 3% 78%  
347 3% 75%  
348 4% 72%  
349 3% 68%  
350 3% 66%  
351 3% 63%  
352 3% 60%  
353 3% 57%  
354 3% 54%  
355 4% 51% Median
356 3% 47%  
357 3% 44%  
358 2% 41%  
359 3% 39%  
360 3% 36%  
361 3% 33%  
362 2% 30%  
363 3% 28%  
364 2% 25%  
365 2% 23%  
366 2% 21%  
367 2% 20%  
368 2% 18%  
369 2% 16%  
370 1.2% 14%  
371 1.4% 13%  
372 1.2% 12%  
373 1.2% 10%  
374 1.2% 9%  
375 1.0% 8%  
376 0.8% 7%  
377 0.8% 6%  
378 0.8% 6%  
379 0.9% 5%  
380 0.8% 4%  
381 0.6% 3%  
382 0.2% 3%  
383 0.3% 2%  
384 0.4% 2%  
385 0.2% 2%  
386 0.3% 1.4%  
387 0.1% 1.1%  
388 0.3% 0.9%  
389 0.2% 0.6%  
390 0.1% 0.4%  
391 0.1% 0.4%  
392 0.1% 0.3%  
393 0.1% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
170 0% 100%  
171 0% 99.9%  
172 0% 99.9%  
173 0% 99.9%  
174 0% 99.9%  
175 0% 99.9%  
176 0% 99.8%  
177 0.1% 99.8%  
178 0.1% 99.7%  
179 0.1% 99.6%  
180 0.1% 99.6%  
181 0.2% 99.5%  
182 0.1% 99.3%  
183 0.2% 99.2%  
184 0.2% 99.0%  
185 0.3% 98.7%  
186 0.3% 98%  
187 0.5% 98%  
188 0.7% 98%  
189 0.5% 97%  
190 0.9% 96%  
191 0.6% 95%  
192 0.8% 95%  
193 1.0% 94%  
194 1.3% 93%  
195 0.8% 92%  
196 0.6% 91%  
197 1.0% 90%  
198 0.7% 89%  
199 2% 89%  
200 1.4% 87%  
201 1.4% 86%  
202 2% 84%  
203 2% 82%  
204 1.3% 81%  
205 2% 79%  
206 3% 77%  
207 1.4% 74%  
208 3% 73%  
209 3% 70%  
210 2% 67%  
211 4% 64%  
212 3% 61%  
213 2% 58%  
214 4% 56%  
215 2% 52% Median
216 3% 50%  
217 3% 47%  
218 2% 44%  
219 4% 41%  
220 3% 38%  
221 3% 35%  
222 3% 32%  
223 3% 29%  
224 3% 26%  
225 3% 23%  
226 3% 20%  
227 2% 17%  
228 2% 15%  
229 2% 12%  
230 2% 10%  
231 2% 9%  
232 1.4% 7%  
233 1.2% 6%  
234 0.9% 4%  
235 0.8% 4%  
236 0.7% 3%  
237 0.4% 2%  
238 0.4% 2%  
239 0.3% 1.3%  
240 0.3% 0.9%  
241 0.2% 0.7%  
242 0.1% 0.5%  
243 0.1% 0.4%  
244 0.1% 0.3%  
245 0.1% 0.2%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.2% 99.9%  
10 0.2% 99.7%  
11 0.3% 99.5% Last Result
12 1.1% 99.3%  
13 0.7% 98%  
14 0.4% 97%  
15 2% 97%  
16 2% 95%  
17 3% 94%  
18 2% 91%  
19 7% 88%  
20 8% 81%  
21 6% 73%  
22 11% 67%  
23 14% 55% Median
24 13% 42%  
25 6% 29%  
26 8% 22%  
27 8% 14%  
28 3% 6%  
29 0.4% 3%  
30 0.7% 2%  
31 0.5% 2%  
32 0.5% 1.1%  
33 0.3% 0.6%  
34 0.1% 0.3%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.1% 99.9%  
10 0.1% 99.9%  
11 0.2% 99.8%  
12 0.2% 99.6%  
13 0.1% 99.4%  
14 0.1% 99.2%  
15 0.3% 99.1%  
16 0.4% 98.8%  
17 1.2% 98%  
18 1.4% 97%  
19 1.2% 96%  
20 1.3% 95%  
21 0.8% 93%  
22 3% 93%  
23 2% 90%  
24 2% 88%  
25 2% 86%  
26 3% 84%  
27 2% 82%  
28 6% 80%  
29 2% 75%  
30 7% 72%  
31 7% 65%  
32 3% 58%  
33 8% 55% Median
34 3% 48%  
35 7% 45%  
36 4% 37%  
37 4% 33%  
38 4% 29%  
39 3% 25%  
40 2% 22%  
41 5% 20%  
42 2% 16%  
43 3% 14%  
44 2% 10%  
45 1.1% 8%  
46 2% 7%  
47 0.6% 5%  
48 0.8% 4% Last Result
49 0.5% 4%  
50 0.7% 3%  
51 0.9% 2%  
52 0.7% 1.5%  
53 0.4% 0.8%  
54 0.2% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 261 411 100% 396–429 393–435 390–438 384–445
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 250 388 100% 375–406 372–410 370–414 366–420
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 213 377 100% 361–397 357–403 353–407 346–416
Labour Party 202 355 99.9% 340–373 337–378 334–382 329–389
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 413 249 0% 229–265 223–269 219–273 210–280
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 376 238 0% 220–251 216–254 212–256 206–260
Conservative Party 365 215 0% 197–230 191–233 188–236 181–242

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100% Last Result
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 99.9%  
379 0% 99.9%  
380 0% 99.9%  
381 0.1% 99.9%  
382 0.1% 99.8%  
383 0.1% 99.7%  
384 0.1% 99.6%  
385 0.2% 99.5%  
386 0.3% 99.3%  
387 0.3% 99.1%  
388 0.4% 98.7%  
389 0.4% 98%  
390 0.7% 98%  
391 0.8% 97%  
392 0.9% 96%  
393 1.2% 96%  
394 1.4% 94%  
395 2% 93%  
396 2% 91%  
397 2% 90%  
398 2% 87%  
399 2% 85%  
400 3% 83%  
401 3% 80%  
402 3% 77%  
403 3% 74%  
404 3% 71%  
405 3% 68%  
406 3% 65%  
407 4% 62%  
408 2% 59%  
409 3% 56%  
410 3% 53%  
411 2% 50% Median
412 4% 48%  
413 2% 44%  
414 3% 42%  
415 4% 39%  
416 2% 36%  
417 3% 33%  
418 3% 30%  
419 1.4% 27%  
420 3% 26%  
421 2% 23%  
422 1.3% 21%  
423 2% 19%  
424 2% 18%  
425 1.4% 16%  
426 1.4% 14%  
427 2% 13%  
428 0.7% 11%  
429 1.0% 11%  
430 0.6% 10%  
431 0.8% 9%  
432 1.3% 8%  
433 1.0% 7%  
434 0.8% 6%  
435 0.6% 5%  
436 0.9% 5%  
437 0.5% 4%  
438 0.7% 3%  
439 0.5% 2%  
440 0.3% 2%  
441 0.3% 2%  
442 0.2% 1.3%  
443 0.2% 1.0%  
444 0.1% 0.8%  
445 0.2% 0.7%  
446 0.1% 0.5%  
447 0.1% 0.4%  
448 0.1% 0.4%  
449 0.1% 0.3%  
450 0% 0.2%  
451 0% 0.2%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100% Last Result
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.8%  
364 0.1% 99.8%  
365 0.1% 99.7%  
366 0.2% 99.6%  
367 0.5% 99.4%  
368 0.6% 99.0%  
369 0.6% 98%  
370 0.7% 98%  
371 1.0% 97%  
372 1.2% 96%  
373 2% 95%  
374 3% 93%  
375 2% 91%  
376 2% 89%  
377 3% 87%  
378 4% 83%  
379 3% 79%  
380 2% 77%  
381 3% 74%  
382 3% 72%  
383 5% 68%  
384 3% 63%  
385 3% 61%  
386 3% 58%  
387 3% 55%  
388 4% 53% Median
389 4% 49%  
390 3% 45%  
391 3% 42%  
392 3% 39%  
393 4% 36%  
394 2% 32%  
395 3% 30%  
396 2% 27%  
397 2% 25%  
398 2% 23%  
399 2% 21%  
400 3% 19%  
401 2% 16%  
402 1.4% 14%  
403 1.2% 13%  
404 0.7% 12%  
405 1.2% 11%  
406 1.3% 10%  
407 1.0% 9%  
408 0.9% 8%  
409 1.0% 7%  
410 1.1% 6%  
411 0.7% 5%  
412 0.7% 4%  
413 0.6% 3%  
414 0.6% 3%  
415 0.5% 2%  
416 0.4% 2%  
417 0.4% 1.2%  
418 0.2% 0.8%  
419 0.1% 0.7%  
420 0.1% 0.5%  
421 0.1% 0.4%  
422 0.1% 0.3%  
423 0% 0.2%  
424 0% 0.2%  
425 0% 0.2%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
213 0% 100% Last Result
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0.1% 99.8%  
344 0.1% 99.8%  
345 0.1% 99.7%  
346 0.1% 99.5%  
347 0.1% 99.4%  
348 0.2% 99.3%  
349 0.2% 99.1%  
350 0.3% 98.9%  
351 0.3% 98.5%  
352 0.4% 98%  
353 0.5% 98%  
354 0.5% 97%  
355 0.8% 97%  
356 0.8% 96%  
357 0.8% 95%  
358 1.1% 95%  
359 2% 93%  
360 1.1% 92%  
361 1.3% 91%  
362 2% 90%  
363 1.4% 88%  
364 2% 86%  
365 2% 84%  
366 2% 82%  
367 3% 79%  
368 2% 77%  
369 3% 74%  
370 3% 72%  
371 2% 69%  
372 3% 67%  
373 3% 63%  
374 2% 61%  
375 3% 58%  
376 3% 55%  
377 2% 52%  
378 3% 50% Median
379 4% 47%  
380 2% 44%  
381 2% 41%  
382 3% 39%  
383 2% 36%  
384 2% 34%  
385 2% 31%  
386 2% 29%  
387 3% 27%  
388 2% 24%  
389 2% 23%  
390 2% 21%  
391 2% 19%  
392 1.5% 17%  
393 1.4% 15%  
394 1.1% 14%  
395 1.0% 13%  
396 1.2% 12%  
397 2% 11%  
398 0.7% 9%  
399 0.8% 9%  
400 0.6% 8%  
401 1.1% 7%  
402 0.8% 6%  
403 0.9% 5%  
404 0.4% 4%  
405 0.6% 4%  
406 0.5% 3%  
407 0.3% 3%  
408 0.4% 2%  
409 0.3% 2%  
410 0.3% 2%  
411 0.3% 1.5%  
412 0.2% 1.1%  
413 0.2% 1.0%  
414 0.1% 0.8%  
415 0.1% 0.6%  
416 0.1% 0.5%  
417 0.1% 0.4%  
418 0.1% 0.3%  
419 0.1% 0.3%  
420 0.1% 0.2%  
421 0% 0.2%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 99.9%  
325 0.1% 99.9%  
326 0.1% 99.9% Majority
327 0.1% 99.7%  
328 0.1% 99.7%  
329 0.2% 99.5%  
330 0.2% 99.4%  
331 0.3% 99.2%  
332 0.3% 98.9%  
333 0.7% 98.6%  
334 0.6% 98%  
335 0.6% 97%  
336 0.7% 97%  
337 0.9% 96%  
338 1.5% 95%  
339 2% 93%  
340 2% 92%  
341 2% 90%  
342 3% 88%  
343 2% 85%  
344 3% 83%  
345 3% 81%  
346 3% 78%  
347 3% 75%  
348 4% 72%  
349 3% 68%  
350 3% 66%  
351 3% 63%  
352 3% 60%  
353 3% 57%  
354 3% 54%  
355 4% 51% Median
356 3% 47%  
357 3% 44%  
358 2% 41%  
359 3% 39%  
360 3% 36%  
361 3% 33%  
362 2% 30%  
363 3% 28%  
364 2% 25%  
365 2% 23%  
366 2% 21%  
367 2% 20%  
368 2% 18%  
369 2% 16%  
370 1.2% 14%  
371 1.4% 13%  
372 1.2% 12%  
373 1.2% 10%  
374 1.2% 9%  
375 1.0% 8%  
376 0.8% 7%  
377 0.8% 6%  
378 0.8% 6%  
379 0.9% 5%  
380 0.8% 4%  
381 0.6% 3%  
382 0.2% 3%  
383 0.3% 2%  
384 0.4% 2%  
385 0.2% 2%  
386 0.3% 1.4%  
387 0.1% 1.1%  
388 0.3% 0.9%  
389 0.2% 0.6%  
390 0.1% 0.4%  
391 0.1% 0.4%  
392 0.1% 0.3%  
393 0.1% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100%  
201 0% 99.9%  
202 0% 99.9%  
203 0% 99.9%  
204 0% 99.9%  
205 0% 99.9%  
206 0.1% 99.8%  
207 0.1% 99.8%  
208 0.1% 99.7%  
209 0.1% 99.7%  
210 0.1% 99.6%  
211 0.1% 99.5%  
212 0.1% 99.4%  
213 0.2% 99.2%  
214 0.2% 99.0%  
215 0.3% 98.9%  
216 0.3% 98.5%  
217 0.3% 98%  
218 0.4% 98%  
219 0.3% 98%  
220 0.5% 97%  
221 0.6% 97%  
222 0.4% 96%  
223 0.9% 96%  
224 0.8% 95%  
225 1.1% 94%  
226 0.6% 93%  
227 0.8% 92%  
228 0.7% 91%  
229 2% 91%  
230 1.2% 89%  
231 1.0% 88%  
232 1.1% 87%  
233 1.4% 86%  
234 1.5% 85%  
235 2% 83%  
236 2% 81%  
237 2% 79%  
238 2% 77%  
239 3% 76%  
240 2% 73%  
241 2% 71%  
242 2% 69%  
243 2% 66%  
244 3% 64%  
245 2% 61%  
246 2% 59%  
247 4% 56%  
248 3% 53% Median
249 2% 50%  
250 3% 48%  
251 3% 45%  
252 2% 42%  
253 3% 39%  
254 3% 37%  
255 2% 33%  
256 3% 31%  
257 3% 28%  
258 2% 26%  
259 3% 23%  
260 2% 21%  
261 2% 18%  
262 2% 16%  
263 1.4% 14%  
264 2% 12%  
265 1.3% 10%  
266 1.1% 9%  
267 2% 8%  
268 1.1% 7%  
269 0.8% 5%  
270 0.8% 5%  
271 0.8% 4%  
272 0.5% 3%  
273 0.5% 3%  
274 0.4% 2%  
275 0.3% 2%  
276 0.3% 1.5%  
277 0.2% 1.1%  
278 0.2% 0.9%  
279 0.1% 0.7%  
280 0.1% 0.6%  
281 0.1% 0.5%  
282 0.1% 0.3%  
283 0.1% 0.2%  
284 0% 0.2%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
197 0% 100%  
198 0% 99.9%  
199 0% 99.9%  
200 0% 99.9%  
201 0% 99.9%  
202 0% 99.8%  
203 0% 99.8%  
204 0.1% 99.8%  
205 0.1% 99.7%  
206 0.1% 99.6%  
207 0.1% 99.5%  
208 0.2% 99.3%  
209 0.4% 99.2%  
210 0.4% 98.8%  
211 0.5% 98%  
212 0.6% 98%  
213 0.6% 97%  
214 0.7% 97%  
215 0.7% 96%  
216 1.0% 95%  
217 1.0% 94%  
218 0.9% 93%  
219 1.0% 92%  
220 1.3% 91%  
221 1.2% 90%  
222 0.7% 89%  
223 1.2% 88%  
224 1.4% 87%  
225 2% 86%  
226 3% 84%  
227 2% 81%  
228 2% 79%  
229 2% 77%  
230 2% 75%  
231 3% 73%  
232 2% 70%  
233 4% 68%  
234 3% 64%  
235 3% 61%  
236 3% 58%  
237 4% 55%  
238 4% 51% Median
239 3% 47%  
240 3% 45%  
241 3% 42%  
242 3% 39%  
243 5% 37%  
244 3% 32%  
245 3% 28%  
246 2% 26%  
247 3% 23%  
248 4% 21%  
249 3% 17%  
250 2% 13%  
251 2% 11%  
252 3% 9%  
253 2% 7%  
254 1.2% 5%  
255 1.0% 4%  
256 0.7% 3%  
257 0.6% 2%  
258 0.6% 2%  
259 0.5% 1.0%  
260 0.2% 0.6%  
261 0.1% 0.4%  
262 0.1% 0.3%  
263 0% 0.2%  
264 0% 0.2%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
170 0% 100%  
171 0% 99.9%  
172 0% 99.9%  
173 0% 99.9%  
174 0% 99.9%  
175 0% 99.9%  
176 0% 99.8%  
177 0.1% 99.8%  
178 0.1% 99.7%  
179 0.1% 99.6%  
180 0.1% 99.6%  
181 0.2% 99.5%  
182 0.1% 99.3%  
183 0.2% 99.2%  
184 0.2% 99.0%  
185 0.3% 98.7%  
186 0.3% 98%  
187 0.5% 98%  
188 0.7% 98%  
189 0.5% 97%  
190 0.9% 96%  
191 0.6% 95%  
192 0.8% 95%  
193 1.0% 94%  
194 1.3% 93%  
195 0.8% 92%  
196 0.6% 91%  
197 1.0% 90%  
198 0.7% 89%  
199 2% 89%  
200 1.4% 87%  
201 1.4% 86%  
202 2% 84%  
203 2% 82%  
204 1.3% 81%  
205 2% 79%  
206 3% 77%  
207 1.4% 74%  
208 3% 73%  
209 3% 70%  
210 2% 67%  
211 4% 64%  
212 3% 61%  
213 2% 58%  
214 4% 56%  
215 2% 52% Median
216 3% 50%  
217 3% 47%  
218 2% 44%  
219 4% 41%  
220 3% 38%  
221 3% 35%  
222 3% 32%  
223 3% 29%  
224 3% 26%  
225 3% 23%  
226 3% 20%  
227 2% 17%  
228 2% 15%  
229 2% 12%  
230 2% 10%  
231 2% 9%  
232 1.4% 7%  
233 1.2% 6%  
234 0.9% 4%  
235 0.8% 4%  
236 0.7% 3%  
237 0.4% 2%  
238 0.4% 2%  
239 0.3% 1.3%  
240 0.3% 0.9%  
241 0.2% 0.7%  
242 0.1% 0.5%  
243 0.1% 0.4%  
244 0.1% 0.3%  
245 0.1% 0.2%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations