Opinion Poll by Savanta, 2–4 June 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 32.1% 46.0% 44.6–47.5% 44.2–47.9% 43.9–48.2% 43.2–48.9%
Conservative Party 43.6% 31.4% 30.1–32.8% 29.7–33.1% 29.4–33.5% 28.8–34.1%
Liberal Democrats 11.5% 11.5% 10.6–12.5% 10.4–12.7% 10.2–13.0% 9.8–13.4%
Scottish National Party 3.9% 3.1% 2.7–3.7% 2.6–3.9% 2.5–4.0% 2.3–4.3%
Green Party 2.8% 2.5% 2.1–3.0% 2.0–3.1% 1.9–3.2% 1.7–3.5%
Brexit Party 2.0% 2.3% 1.9–2.8% 1.8–2.9% 1.7–3.1% 1.6–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 202 354 340–372 337–377 334–381 329–388
Conservative Party 365 212 193–226 187–229 183–231 175–236
Liberal Democrats 11 27 23–32 21–34 20–37 17–39
Scottish National Party 48 33 23–42 20–45 18–49 13–52
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0.1% 99.9%  
326 0.1% 99.9% Majority
327 0.1% 99.8%  
328 0.1% 99.7%  
329 0.2% 99.6%  
330 0.2% 99.4%  
331 0.3% 99.2%  
332 0.4% 98.9%  
333 0.7% 98%  
334 0.5% 98%  
335 0.7% 97%  
336 1.0% 97%  
337 0.8% 95%  
338 1.4% 95%  
339 2% 93%  
340 2% 91%  
341 2% 89%  
342 3% 87%  
343 2% 84%  
344 2% 82%  
345 3% 80%  
346 3% 77%  
347 4% 74%  
348 2% 70%  
349 4% 68%  
350 2% 64%  
351 3% 62%  
352 4% 59%  
353 3% 55%  
354 3% 52% Median
355 3% 49%  
356 3% 46%  
357 3% 43%  
358 3% 40%  
359 3% 37%  
360 4% 34%  
361 3% 31%  
362 2% 28%  
363 3% 26%  
364 2% 23%  
365 2% 21%  
366 2% 20%  
367 2% 18%  
368 1.3% 16%  
369 2% 14%  
370 1.2% 13%  
371 1.0% 12%  
372 1.3% 11%  
373 0.8% 9%  
374 1.5% 8%  
375 0.9% 7%  
376 0.8% 6%  
377 0.6% 5%  
378 0.9% 5%  
379 0.7% 4%  
380 0.4% 3%  
381 0.4% 3%  
382 0.4% 2%  
383 0.3% 2%  
384 0.2% 2%  
385 0.4% 1.3%  
386 0.1% 0.9%  
387 0.2% 0.8%  
388 0.1% 0.6%  
389 0.1% 0.4%  
390 0.1% 0.3%  
391 0.1% 0.2%  
392 0% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
165 0% 100%  
166 0% 99.9%  
167 0% 99.9%  
168 0% 99.9%  
169 0% 99.9%  
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0% 99.8%  
172 0.1% 99.8%  
173 0.1% 99.7%  
174 0.1% 99.7%  
175 0.1% 99.6%  
176 0.2% 99.5%  
177 0.1% 99.3%  
178 0.2% 99.2%  
179 0.2% 99.0%  
180 0.2% 98.8%  
181 0.4% 98.5%  
182 0.4% 98%  
183 0.5% 98%  
184 0.4% 97%  
185 0.5% 97%  
186 0.8% 96%  
187 0.9% 96%  
188 0.7% 95%  
189 0.8% 94%  
190 1.0% 93%  
191 0.9% 92%  
192 0.7% 91%  
193 0.8% 91%  
194 1.4% 90%  
195 1.3% 88%  
196 1.0% 87%  
197 1.3% 86%  
198 2% 85%  
199 2% 83%  
200 2% 81%  
201 2% 80%  
202 3% 78%  
203 3% 75%  
204 2% 73%  
205 3% 71%  
206 2% 68%  
207 4% 66%  
208 3% 62%  
209 3% 60%  
210 3% 56%  
211 2% 53%  
212 4% 51% Median
213 2% 47%  
214 2% 45%  
215 4% 43%  
216 3% 39%  
217 3% 36%  
218 2% 33%  
219 4% 31%  
220 3% 27%  
221 3% 24%  
222 3% 22%  
223 2% 19%  
224 3% 16%  
225 2% 13%  
226 2% 11%  
227 2% 9%  
228 2% 7%  
229 1.1% 5%  
230 1.0% 4%  
231 0.8% 3%  
232 0.5% 2%  
233 0.4% 2%  
234 0.5% 2%  
235 0.4% 1.1%  
236 0.2% 0.7%  
237 0.1% 0.5%  
238 0.1% 0.4%  
239 0.1% 0.3%  
240 0.1% 0.2%  
241 0% 0.1%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100% Last Result
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0.1% 99.9%  
16 0.1% 99.8%  
17 0.2% 99.7%  
18 0.3% 99.5%  
19 0.9% 99.1%  
20 2% 98%  
21 2% 97%  
22 4% 95%  
23 7% 91%  
24 11% 84%  
25 6% 73%  
26 15% 68%  
27 18% 53% Median
28 14% 35%  
29 2% 21%  
30 2% 19%  
31 4% 17%  
32 4% 12%  
33 3% 8%  
34 1.2% 5%  
35 0.7% 4%  
36 0.5% 3%  
37 1.0% 3%  
38 0.8% 2%  
39 0.7% 1.1%  
40 0.2% 0.4%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 99.9%  
11 0.1% 99.8%  
12 0.2% 99.7%  
13 0.1% 99.6%  
14 0.1% 99.5%  
15 0.2% 99.4%  
16 0.3% 99.2%  
17 1.0% 98.8%  
18 1.2% 98%  
19 0.8% 97%  
20 1.1% 96%  
21 0.7% 95%  
22 3% 94%  
23 2% 91%  
24 1.4% 89%  
25 2% 88%  
26 3% 86%  
27 2% 83%  
28 6% 82%  
29 3% 76%  
30 7% 73%  
31 7% 67%  
32 3% 60%  
33 8% 57% Median
34 2% 48%  
35 10% 46%  
36 4% 36%  
37 3% 32%  
38 5% 29%  
39 3% 24%  
40 3% 21%  
41 7% 18%  
42 1.4% 11%  
43 3% 10%  
44 0.8% 7%  
45 1.3% 6%  
46 0.8% 5%  
47 0.7% 4%  
48 0.8% 4% Last Result
49 0.5% 3%  
50 0.7% 2%  
51 0.7% 2%  
52 0.5% 0.9%  
53 0.2% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 99.9% 99.9% Last Result, Median
2 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 261 414 100% 400–433 397–439 395–443 390–451
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 250 388 100% 375–404 372–409 370–412 366–418
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 213 381 100% 365–401 362–406 358–411 352–420
Labour Party 202 354 99.9% 340–372 337–377 334–381 329–388
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 413 245 0% 225–261 220–264 215–268 206–274
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 376 238 0% 222–251 217–254 214–256 208–260
Conservative Party 365 212 0% 193–226 187–229 183–231 175–236

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100% Last Result
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 99.9%  
385 0% 99.9%  
386 0.1% 99.9%  
387 0.1% 99.8%  
388 0.1% 99.7%  
389 0.1% 99.6%  
390 0.2% 99.5%  
391 0.4% 99.3%  
392 0.5% 98.9%  
393 0.4% 98%  
394 0.5% 98%  
395 0.8% 98%  
396 1.0% 97%  
397 1.1% 96%  
398 2% 95%  
399 2% 93%  
400 2% 91%  
401 2% 89%  
402 3% 87%  
403 2% 84%  
404 3% 81%  
405 3% 78%  
406 3% 76%  
407 4% 73%  
408 2% 69%  
409 3% 67%  
410 3% 64%  
411 4% 61%  
412 2% 57%  
413 2% 55%  
414 4% 53% Median
415 2% 49%  
416 3% 47%  
417 3% 44%  
418 3% 40%  
419 4% 38%  
420 2% 34%  
421 3% 32%  
422 2% 29%  
423 3% 27%  
424 3% 25%  
425 2% 22%  
426 2% 20%  
427 2% 19%  
428 2% 17%  
429 1.3% 15%  
430 1.0% 14%  
431 1.3% 13%  
432 1.4% 12%  
433 0.8% 10%  
434 0.7% 9%  
435 0.9% 9%  
436 1.0% 8%  
437 0.8% 7%  
438 0.7% 6%  
439 0.9% 5%  
440 0.8% 4%  
441 0.5% 4%  
442 0.4% 3%  
443 0.5% 3%  
444 0.4% 2%  
445 0.4% 2%  
446 0.2% 1.5%  
447 0.2% 1.2%  
448 0.2% 1.0%  
449 0.1% 0.8%  
450 0.2% 0.7%  
451 0.1% 0.5%  
452 0.1% 0.4%  
453 0.1% 0.3%  
454 0.1% 0.3%  
455 0% 0.2%  
456 0% 0.2%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100% Last Result
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0.1% 99.8%  
365 0.1% 99.8%  
366 0.2% 99.7%  
367 0.4% 99.5%  
368 0.6% 99.1%  
369 0.5% 98%  
370 0.7% 98%  
371 1.1% 97%  
372 1.3% 96%  
373 2% 95%  
374 2% 93%  
375 2% 91%  
376 2% 88%  
377 4% 86%  
378 4% 82%  
379 2% 78%  
380 3% 76%  
381 3% 73%  
382 4% 70%  
383 4% 66%  
384 3% 63%  
385 3% 60%  
386 3% 57%  
387 3% 53% Median
388 3% 50%  
389 3% 47%  
390 4% 44%  
391 3% 40%  
392 3% 37%  
393 3% 34%  
394 3% 31%  
395 3% 28%  
396 2% 25%  
397 2% 23%  
398 3% 21%  
399 2% 18%  
400 2% 16%  
401 1.3% 14%  
402 1.3% 13%  
403 1.0% 12%  
404 0.9% 11%  
405 1.4% 10%  
406 0.7% 8%  
407 0.6% 8%  
408 1.2% 7%  
409 1.0% 6%  
410 0.8% 5%  
411 0.8% 4%  
412 1.0% 3%  
413 0.4% 2%  
414 0.4% 2%  
415 0.4% 1.4%  
416 0.2% 1.1%  
417 0.2% 0.8%  
418 0.2% 0.6%  
419 0.1% 0.4%  
420 0.1% 0.3%  
421 0.1% 0.3%  
422 0% 0.2%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
213 0% 100% Last Result
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0.1% 99.8%  
349 0% 99.8%  
350 0.1% 99.7%  
351 0.1% 99.6%  
352 0.2% 99.5%  
353 0.2% 99.4%  
354 0.3% 99.2%  
355 0.3% 98.9%  
356 0.3% 98.6%  
357 0.6% 98%  
358 0.6% 98%  
359 0.6% 97%  
360 0.6% 97%  
361 0.7% 96%  
362 0.9% 95%  
363 2% 94%  
364 2% 93%  
365 2% 91%  
366 2% 89%  
367 2% 87%  
368 1.5% 85%  
369 3% 84%  
370 2% 81%  
371 2% 79%  
372 3% 77%  
373 3% 74%  
374 3% 71%  
375 3% 68%  
376 3% 65%  
377 2% 62%  
378 3% 60%  
379 3% 57%  
380 3% 55%  
381 4% 52% Median
382 2% 48%  
383 2% 45%  
384 2% 43%  
385 2% 41%  
386 3% 39%  
387 3% 35%  
388 3% 33%  
389 2% 30%  
390 3% 27%  
391 2% 25%  
392 2% 23%  
393 2% 21%  
394 2% 19%  
395 1.3% 18%  
396 1.4% 16%  
397 1.3% 15%  
398 1.4% 14%  
399 1.0% 12%  
400 1.0% 11%  
401 1.5% 10%  
402 0.8% 9%  
403 0.9% 8%  
404 0.7% 7%  
405 0.7% 6%  
406 0.6% 6%  
407 0.6% 5%  
408 0.6% 4%  
409 0.5% 4%  
410 0.6% 3%  
411 0.4% 3%  
412 0.3% 2%  
413 0.3% 2%  
414 0.4% 2%  
415 0.2% 1.3%  
416 0.2% 1.1%  
417 0.1% 0.9%  
418 0.1% 0.7%  
419 0.1% 0.6%  
420 0.1% 0.5%  
421 0.1% 0.5%  
422 0.1% 0.3%  
423 0.1% 0.3%  
424 0% 0.2%  
425 0% 0.2%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0.1% 99.9%  
326 0.1% 99.9% Majority
327 0.1% 99.8%  
328 0.1% 99.7%  
329 0.2% 99.6%  
330 0.2% 99.4%  
331 0.3% 99.2%  
332 0.4% 98.9%  
333 0.7% 98%  
334 0.5% 98%  
335 0.7% 97%  
336 1.0% 97%  
337 0.8% 95%  
338 1.4% 95%  
339 2% 93%  
340 2% 91%  
341 2% 89%  
342 3% 87%  
343 2% 84%  
344 2% 82%  
345 3% 80%  
346 3% 77%  
347 4% 74%  
348 2% 70%  
349 4% 68%  
350 2% 64%  
351 3% 62%  
352 4% 59%  
353 3% 55%  
354 3% 52% Median
355 3% 49%  
356 3% 46%  
357 3% 43%  
358 3% 40%  
359 3% 37%  
360 4% 34%  
361 3% 31%  
362 2% 28%  
363 3% 26%  
364 2% 23%  
365 2% 21%  
366 2% 20%  
367 2% 18%  
368 1.3% 16%  
369 2% 14%  
370 1.2% 13%  
371 1.0% 12%  
372 1.3% 11%  
373 0.8% 9%  
374 1.5% 8%  
375 0.9% 7%  
376 0.8% 6%  
377 0.6% 5%  
378 0.9% 5%  
379 0.7% 4%  
380 0.4% 3%  
381 0.4% 3%  
382 0.4% 2%  
383 0.3% 2%  
384 0.2% 2%  
385 0.4% 1.3%  
386 0.1% 0.9%  
387 0.2% 0.8%  
388 0.1% 0.6%  
389 0.1% 0.4%  
390 0.1% 0.3%  
391 0.1% 0.2%  
392 0% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
196 0% 100%  
197 0% 99.9%  
198 0% 99.9%  
199 0% 99.9%  
200 0% 99.9%  
201 0% 99.9%  
202 0% 99.8%  
203 0.1% 99.8%  
204 0.1% 99.7%  
205 0.1% 99.7%  
206 0.1% 99.5%  
207 0.1% 99.5%  
208 0.1% 99.4%  
209 0.1% 99.3%  
210 0.2% 99.1%  
211 0.2% 98.9%  
212 0.4% 98.7%  
213 0.3% 98%  
214 0.3% 98%  
215 0.4% 98%  
216 0.6% 97%  
217 0.5% 97%  
218 0.6% 96%  
219 0.6% 96%  
220 0.6% 95%  
221 0.7% 94%  
222 0.7% 94%  
223 0.9% 93%  
224 0.8% 92%  
225 1.5% 91%  
226 1.0% 90%  
227 1.0% 89%  
228 1.4% 88%  
229 1.3% 86%  
230 1.4% 85%  
231 1.3% 84%  
232 2% 82%  
233 2% 81%  
234 2% 79%  
235 2% 77%  
236 3% 75%  
237 2% 73%  
238 3% 70%  
239 3% 67%  
240 3% 65%  
241 2% 61%  
242 2% 59%  
243 2% 57%  
244 2% 55%  
245 4% 52% Median
246 3% 48%  
247 3% 45%  
248 3% 43%  
249 2% 40%  
250 3% 38%  
251 3% 35%  
252 3% 32%  
253 3% 29%  
254 3% 26%  
255 2% 23%  
256 2% 21%  
257 3% 19%  
258 1.5% 16%  
259 2% 15%  
260 2% 13%  
261 2% 11%  
262 2% 9%  
263 2% 7%  
264 0.9% 6%  
265 0.7% 5%  
266 0.6% 4%  
267 0.6% 3%  
268 0.6% 3%  
269 0.6% 2%  
270 0.3% 2%  
271 0.3% 1.4%  
272 0.3% 1.1%  
273 0.2% 0.8%  
274 0.2% 0.6%  
275 0.1% 0.5%  
276 0.1% 0.4%  
277 0% 0.3%  
278 0.1% 0.2%  
279 0% 0.2%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
199 0% 100%  
200 0% 99.9%  
201 0% 99.9%  
202 0% 99.9%  
203 0% 99.9%  
204 0% 99.9%  
205 0.1% 99.8%  
206 0.1% 99.7%  
207 0.1% 99.7%  
208 0.2% 99.6%  
209 0.2% 99.4%  
210 0.2% 99.2%  
211 0.4% 98.9%  
212 0.4% 98.6%  
213 0.4% 98%  
214 1.0% 98%  
215 0.8% 97%  
216 0.8% 96%  
217 1.0% 95%  
218 1.2% 94%  
219 0.6% 93%  
220 0.7% 92%  
221 1.4% 92%  
222 0.9% 90%  
223 1.0% 89%  
224 1.3% 88%  
225 1.3% 87%  
226 2% 86%  
227 2% 84%  
228 3% 82%  
229 2% 79%  
230 2% 77%  
231 3% 75%  
232 3% 72%  
233 3% 69%  
234 3% 66%  
235 3% 63%  
236 4% 60%  
237 3% 56%  
238 3% 53%  
239 3% 50% Median
240 3% 47%  
241 3% 43%  
242 3% 40%  
243 4% 37%  
244 4% 34%  
245 3% 30%  
246 3% 27%  
247 2% 24%  
248 4% 22%  
249 4% 18%  
250 2% 14%  
251 2% 12%  
252 2% 9%  
253 2% 7%  
254 1.3% 5%  
255 1.1% 4%  
256 0.7% 3%  
257 0.5% 2%  
258 0.6% 2%  
259 0.4% 0.9%  
260 0.2% 0.5%  
261 0.1% 0.3%  
262 0.1% 0.2%  
263 0% 0.2%  
264 0% 0.1%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
165 0% 100%  
166 0% 99.9%  
167 0% 99.9%  
168 0% 99.9%  
169 0% 99.9%  
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0% 99.8%  
172 0.1% 99.8%  
173 0.1% 99.7%  
174 0.1% 99.7%  
175 0.1% 99.6%  
176 0.2% 99.5%  
177 0.1% 99.3%  
178 0.2% 99.2%  
179 0.2% 99.0%  
180 0.2% 98.8%  
181 0.4% 98.5%  
182 0.4% 98%  
183 0.5% 98%  
184 0.4% 97%  
185 0.5% 97%  
186 0.8% 96%  
187 0.9% 96%  
188 0.7% 95%  
189 0.8% 94%  
190 1.0% 93%  
191 0.9% 92%  
192 0.7% 91%  
193 0.8% 91%  
194 1.4% 90%  
195 1.3% 88%  
196 1.0% 87%  
197 1.3% 86%  
198 2% 85%  
199 2% 83%  
200 2% 81%  
201 2% 80%  
202 3% 78%  
203 3% 75%  
204 2% 73%  
205 3% 71%  
206 2% 68%  
207 4% 66%  
208 3% 62%  
209 3% 60%  
210 3% 56%  
211 2% 53%  
212 4% 51% Median
213 2% 47%  
214 2% 45%  
215 4% 43%  
216 3% 39%  
217 3% 36%  
218 2% 33%  
219 4% 31%  
220 3% 27%  
221 3% 24%  
222 3% 22%  
223 2% 19%  
224 3% 16%  
225 2% 13%  
226 2% 11%  
227 2% 9%  
228 2% 7%  
229 1.1% 5%  
230 1.0% 4%  
231 0.8% 3%  
232 0.5% 2%  
233 0.4% 2%  
234 0.5% 2%  
235 0.4% 1.1%  
236 0.2% 0.7%  
237 0.1% 0.5%  
238 0.1% 0.4%  
239 0.1% 0.3%  
240 0.1% 0.2%  
241 0% 0.1%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations