Opinion Poll by Ipsos MORI for Evening Standard, 14–20 June 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 32.1% 47.0% 44.9–49.0% 44.4–49.6% 43.9–50.1% 42.9–51.1%
Conservative Party 43.6% 24.9% 23.2–26.8% 22.7–27.3% 22.3–27.7% 21.5–28.6%
Liberal Democrats 11.5% 13.0% 11.7–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.1–15.3% 10.5–16.0%
Green Party 2.8% 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.1–7.7% 4.9–8.0% 4.5–8.5%
Scottish National Party 3.9% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Brexit Party 2.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.5–1.5% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 202 399 374–429 368–439 362–445 352–460
Conservative Party 365 131 96–161 85–167 78–173 64–185
Liberal Democrats 11 50 37–60 35–63 33–65 26–72
Green Party 1 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Scottish National Party 48 47 37–55 34–56 32–57 24–58
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.8%  
345 0% 99.8%  
346 0% 99.8%  
347 0% 99.8%  
348 0.1% 99.7%  
349 0% 99.7%  
350 0% 99.6%  
351 0.1% 99.6%  
352 0.1% 99.5%  
353 0.1% 99.5%  
354 0.1% 99.4%  
355 0.1% 99.3%  
356 0.1% 99.2%  
357 0.2% 99.1%  
358 0.2% 98.9%  
359 0.2% 98.7%  
360 0.2% 98%  
361 0.4% 98%  
362 0.4% 98%  
363 0.4% 97%  
364 0.5% 97%  
365 0.3% 97%  
366 0.5% 96%  
367 0.6% 96%  
368 0.7% 95%  
369 0.8% 94%  
370 0.8% 94%  
371 0.9% 93%  
372 1.1% 92%  
373 0.7% 91%  
374 0.6% 90%  
375 0.8% 90%  
376 1.5% 89%  
377 0.5% 87%  
378 1.3% 87%  
379 1.4% 86%  
380 2% 84%  
381 1.3% 83%  
382 1.2% 81%  
383 1.4% 80%  
384 0.6% 79%  
385 1.0% 78%  
386 1.2% 77%  
387 2% 76%  
388 2% 74%  
389 1.4% 72%  
390 2% 71%  
391 2% 69%  
392 2% 66%  
393 2% 65%  
394 3% 62%  
395 2% 59%  
396 2% 57%  
397 3% 55%  
398 2% 52%  
399 2% 50% Median
400 2% 48%  
401 2% 46%  
402 2% 44%  
403 1.1% 42%  
404 2% 41%  
405 4% 38%  
406 1.4% 35%  
407 1.4% 33%  
408 1.3% 32%  
409 2% 30%  
410 2% 28%  
411 2% 27%  
412 2% 25%  
413 0.7% 23%  
414 1.0% 23%  
415 1.3% 22%  
416 1.3% 20%  
417 1.4% 19%  
418 0.9% 18%  
419 1.0% 17%  
420 0.5% 16%  
421 0.8% 15%  
422 0.6% 14%  
423 0.7% 14%  
424 0.4% 13%  
425 0.6% 13%  
426 0.6% 12%  
427 0.8% 11%  
428 0.4% 11%  
429 0.5% 10%  
430 0.4% 10%  
431 0.5% 9%  
432 0.5% 9%  
433 0.7% 8%  
434 0.4% 8%  
435 0.4% 7%  
436 0.5% 7%  
437 0.5% 6%  
438 0.5% 6%  
439 0.3% 5%  
440 0.4% 5%  
441 0.4% 5%  
442 0.4% 4%  
443 0.5% 4%  
444 0.5% 3%  
445 0.3% 3%  
446 0.2% 2%  
447 0.2% 2%  
448 0.2% 2%  
449 0.2% 2%  
450 0.3% 2%  
451 0.1% 1.4%  
452 0.1% 1.3%  
453 0.2% 1.2%  
454 0.1% 1.0%  
455 0.1% 0.9%  
456 0.1% 0.8%  
457 0.1% 0.7%  
458 0.1% 0.6%  
459 0.1% 0.6%  
460 0.1% 0.5%  
461 0.1% 0.4%  
462 0.1% 0.4%  
463 0% 0.3%  
464 0% 0.3%  
465 0% 0.2%  
466 0% 0.2%  
467 0% 0.2%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 99.9%  
50 0% 99.9%  
51 0% 99.9%  
52 0% 99.9%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0% 99.9%  
57 0% 99.8%  
58 0% 99.8%  
59 0% 99.8%  
60 0% 99.7%  
61 0% 99.7%  
62 0.1% 99.6%  
63 0.1% 99.6%  
64 0% 99.5%  
65 0.1% 99.5%  
66 0.1% 99.4%  
67 0.1% 99.3%  
68 0.1% 99.2%  
69 0.2% 99.1%  
70 0.1% 98.9%  
71 0.2% 98.7%  
72 0.2% 98.6%  
73 0.2% 98%  
74 0.2% 98%  
75 0.1% 98%  
76 0.2% 98%  
77 0.2% 98%  
78 0.1% 98%  
79 0.4% 97%  
80 0.3% 97%  
81 0.4% 97%  
82 0.4% 96%  
83 0.4% 96%  
84 0.4% 95%  
85 0.4% 95%  
86 0.3% 95%  
87 0.5% 94%  
88 0.3% 94%  
89 0.5% 94%  
90 0.4% 93%  
91 0.4% 93%  
92 0.5% 92%  
93 0.4% 92%  
94 0.7% 91%  
95 0.4% 91%  
96 0.4% 90%  
97 0.8% 90%  
98 0.3% 89%  
99 0.2% 89%  
100 0.4% 89%  
101 0.3% 88%  
102 0.3% 88%  
103 0.3% 88%  
104 0.5% 87%  
105 0.4% 87%  
106 0.9% 86%  
107 0.6% 85%  
108 0.7% 85%  
109 0.5% 84%  
110 0.8% 84%  
111 0.9% 83%  
112 0.6% 82%  
113 0.9% 81%  
114 1.2% 81%  
115 2% 79%  
116 2% 77%  
117 1.2% 75%  
118 0.6% 74%  
119 2% 73%  
120 2% 72%  
121 1.4% 69%  
122 2% 68%  
123 1.2% 66%  
124 1.1% 65%  
125 1.4% 64%  
126 2% 63%  
127 1.3% 61%  
128 1.5% 60%  
129 2% 58%  
130 6% 56%  
131 2% 50% Median
132 2% 48%  
133 1.1% 46%  
134 1.1% 45%  
135 2% 44%  
136 0.9% 42%  
137 1.0% 41%  
138 1.5% 40%  
139 3% 38%  
140 2% 35%  
141 1.3% 33%  
142 2% 32%  
143 1.3% 30%  
144 1.0% 29%  
145 1.3% 28%  
146 2% 26%  
147 1.2% 25%  
148 2% 24%  
149 2% 22%  
150 0.9% 20%  
151 0.8% 19%  
152 1.2% 18%  
153 0.8% 17%  
154 1.3% 16%  
155 1.2% 15%  
156 0.8% 13%  
157 0.7% 13%  
158 0.7% 12%  
159 0.6% 11%  
160 0.5% 11%  
161 0.7% 10%  
162 0.7% 9%  
163 0.7% 9%  
164 1.2% 8%  
165 1.0% 7%  
166 0.5% 6%  
167 0.7% 5%  
168 0.5% 5%  
169 0.3% 4%  
170 0.4% 4%  
171 0.3% 3%  
172 0.4% 3%  
173 0.3% 3%  
174 0.3% 2%  
175 0.3% 2%  
176 0.2% 2%  
177 0.2% 2%  
178 0.2% 1.5%  
179 0.1% 1.3%  
180 0.1% 1.2%  
181 0.2% 1.0%  
182 0.1% 0.9%  
183 0.1% 0.7%  
184 0.1% 0.7%  
185 0.1% 0.6%  
186 0% 0.5%  
187 0% 0.4%  
188 0% 0.4%  
189 0% 0.3%  
190 0% 0.3%  
191 0% 0.3%  
192 0% 0.3%  
193 0% 0.2%  
194 0% 0.2%  
195 0% 0.2%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100% Last Result
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 0.1% 99.9%  
24 0.1% 99.8%  
25 0.1% 99.7%  
26 0.1% 99.5%  
27 0.2% 99.4%  
28 0.2% 99.3%  
29 0.2% 99.1%  
30 0.3% 98.8%  
31 0.4% 98%  
32 0.5% 98%  
33 0.7% 98%  
34 1.3% 97%  
35 1.4% 96%  
36 2% 94%  
37 2% 92%  
38 3% 90%  
39 3% 87%  
40 3% 84%  
41 4% 81%  
42 4% 76%  
43 4% 73%  
44 3% 68%  
45 1.1% 65%  
46 2% 64%  
47 3% 62%  
48 4% 59%  
49 4% 55%  
50 6% 51% Median
51 7% 45%  
52 14% 38%  
53 3% 24%  
54 2% 21%  
55 4% 19%  
56 0.8% 16%  
57 2% 15%  
58 0.6% 13%  
59 2% 12%  
60 2% 10%  
61 1.1% 8%  
62 1.4% 7%  
63 2% 6%  
64 0.6% 4%  
65 1.4% 4%  
66 0.3% 2%  
67 0.4% 2%  
68 0.4% 1.4%  
69 0.1% 1.1%  
70 0.4% 1.0%  
71 0.1% 0.6%  
72 0.2% 0.5%  
73 0.1% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 32% 100% Last Result
2 20% 68% Median
3 48% 48%  
4 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0.1% 99.9%  
22 0.1% 99.8%  
23 0.1% 99.7%  
24 0.2% 99.6%  
25 0.1% 99.4%  
26 0.1% 99.3%  
27 0.2% 99.2%  
28 0.1% 99.0%  
29 0.4% 98.9%  
30 0.3% 98%  
31 0.2% 98%  
32 0.6% 98%  
33 0.1% 97%  
34 4% 97%  
35 0.2% 94%  
36 3% 93%  
37 0.3% 90%  
38 6% 90%  
39 2% 84%  
40 4% 82%  
41 12% 78%  
42 0.7% 66%  
43 8% 65%  
44 0.3% 57%  
45 5% 57%  
46 1.1% 53%  
47 3% 51% Median
48 7% 48% Last Result
49 5% 41%  
50 5% 36%  
51 4% 30%  
52 6% 26%  
53 3% 20%  
54 5% 17%  
55 5% 12%  
56 3% 7%  
57 2% 4%  
58 2% 2%  
59 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 261 494 100% 465–527 459–538 452–545 440–559
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 213 447 100% 417–483 409–494 403–503 389–518
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 250 444 100% 421–475 416–483 412–488 402–501
Labour Party 202 399 100% 374–429 368–439 362–445 352–460
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 413 178 0% 141–208 129–216 120–222 104–236
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 376 181 0% 148–204 140–208 135–213 122–223
Conservative Party 365 131 0% 96–161 85–167 78–173 64–185

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100% Last Result
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 99.9%  
426 0% 99.9%  
427 0% 99.9%  
428 0% 99.9%  
429 0% 99.9%  
430 0% 99.9%  
431 0% 99.8%  
432 0% 99.8%  
433 0% 99.8%  
434 0% 99.8%  
435 0% 99.7%  
436 0% 99.7%  
437 0% 99.7%  
438 0% 99.6%  
439 0.1% 99.6%  
440 0.1% 99.5%  
441 0.1% 99.5%  
442 0.1% 99.4%  
443 0.1% 99.3%  
444 0.2% 99.2%  
445 0.2% 99.0%  
446 0.1% 98.9%  
447 0.1% 98.7%  
448 0.2% 98.6%  
449 0.2% 98%  
450 0.2% 98%  
451 0.3% 98%  
452 0.2% 98%  
453 0.4% 97%  
454 0.5% 97%  
455 0.4% 97%  
456 0.3% 96%  
457 0.6% 96%  
458 0.4% 95%  
459 1.1% 95%  
460 0.7% 94%  
461 0.6% 93%  
462 0.8% 93%  
463 0.9% 92%  
464 0.8% 91%  
465 0.8% 90%  
466 0.6% 89%  
467 0.5% 89%  
468 1.0% 88%  
469 1.1% 87%  
470 0.9% 86%  
471 0.8% 85%  
472 1.2% 84%  
473 1.1% 83%  
474 0.9% 82%  
475 1.0% 81%  
476 1.2% 80%  
477 2% 79%  
478 2% 77%  
479 2% 75%  
480 1.5% 73%  
481 1.3% 72%  
482 1.5% 71%  
483 0.9% 69%  
484 2% 68%  
485 2% 67%  
486 2% 65%  
487 2% 63%  
488 1.1% 61%  
489 2% 59%  
490 1.4% 57%  
491 1.3% 56%  
492 2% 55%  
493 2% 53%  
494 4% 51%  
495 3% 47%  
496 2% 44% Median
497 2% 42%  
498 1.4% 40%  
499 2% 39%  
500 2% 37%  
501 1.5% 36%  
502 1.4% 34%  
503 1.3% 33%  
504 2% 31%  
505 2% 29%  
506 1.1% 28%  
507 0.7% 26%  
508 1.4% 26%  
509 2% 24%  
510 1.4% 22%  
511 2% 21%  
512 0.9% 19%  
513 0.6% 18%  
514 0.8% 17%  
515 0.8% 17%  
516 0.5% 16%  
517 0.6% 15%  
518 0.7% 15%  
519 0.8% 14%  
520 0.4% 13%  
521 0.3% 13%  
522 0.5% 12%  
523 0.4% 12%  
524 0.3% 12%  
525 0.4% 11%  
526 0.6% 11%  
527 0.5% 10%  
528 0.5% 10%  
529 0.4% 9%  
530 0.5% 9%  
531 0.4% 8%  
532 0.6% 8%  
533 0.6% 7%  
534 0.4% 7%  
535 0.4% 6%  
536 0.5% 6%  
537 0.4% 6%  
538 0.2% 5%  
539 0.5% 5%  
540 0.4% 4%  
541 0.4% 4%  
542 0.4% 4%  
543 0.3% 3%  
544 0.4% 3%  
545 0.1% 3%  
546 0.2% 2%  
547 0.2% 2%  
548 0.2% 2%  
549 0.2% 2%  
550 0.2% 2%  
551 0.2% 2%  
552 0.2% 1.4%  
553 0.1% 1.2%  
554 0.2% 1.1%  
555 0.1% 0.9%  
556 0.1% 0.8%  
557 0.1% 0.7%  
558 0.1% 0.6%  
559 0.1% 0.5%  
560 0.1% 0.5%  
561 0.1% 0.4%  
562 0% 0.3%  
563 0% 0.3%  
564 0% 0.3%  
565 0% 0.2%  
566 0% 0.2%  
567 0% 0.2%  
568 0% 0.1%  
569 0% 0.1%  
570 0% 0.1%  
571 0% 0.1%  
572 0% 0.1%  
573 0% 0.1%  
574 0% 0.1%  
575 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
213 0% 100% Last Result
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 99.9%  
374 0% 99.9%  
375 0% 99.9%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0% 99.9%  
378 0% 99.9%  
379 0% 99.9%  
380 0% 99.9%  
381 0% 99.8%  
382 0% 99.8%  
383 0% 99.8%  
384 0% 99.7%  
385 0% 99.7%  
386 0% 99.7%  
387 0% 99.6%  
388 0% 99.6%  
389 0.1% 99.5%  
390 0.1% 99.5%  
391 0.1% 99.4%  
392 0.1% 99.3%  
393 0.1% 99.3%  
394 0.1% 99.2%  
395 0.1% 99.1%  
396 0.2% 98.9%  
397 0.2% 98.7%  
398 0.2% 98.6%  
399 0.2% 98%  
400 0.2% 98%  
401 0.2% 98%  
402 0.2% 98%  
403 0.4% 98%  
404 0.4% 97%  
405 0.4% 97%  
406 0.3% 96%  
407 0.5% 96%  
408 0.5% 96%  
409 0.4% 95%  
410 0.4% 95%  
411 0.7% 94%  
412 0.4% 93%  
413 0.6% 93%  
414 0.7% 92%  
415 0.8% 92%  
416 0.7% 91%  
417 0.6% 90%  
418 0.7% 90%  
419 0.5% 89%  
420 0.8% 88%  
421 1.1% 88%  
422 1.3% 87%  
423 1.0% 85%  
424 1.2% 84%  
425 1.0% 83%  
426 0.9% 82%  
427 0.9% 81%  
428 1.0% 80%  
429 2% 79%  
430 1.4% 78%  
431 1.3% 76%  
432 1.2% 75%  
433 1.0% 74%  
434 1.2% 73%  
435 2% 72%  
436 1.4% 70%  
437 1.1% 69%  
438 2% 67%  
439 2% 65%  
440 1.1% 63%  
441 2% 62%  
442 1.3% 61%  
443 3% 59%  
444 1.5% 56%  
445 1.1% 55%  
446 3% 54%  
447 1.3% 51%  
448 2% 50%  
449 3% 48% Median
450 2% 46%  
451 1.1% 44%  
452 1.2% 42%  
453 2% 41%  
454 2% 39%  
455 2% 38%  
456 2% 35%  
457 2% 34%  
458 2% 32%  
459 1.2% 30%  
460 1.3% 29%  
461 0.9% 28%  
462 1.2% 27%  
463 1.1% 26%  
464 1.0% 25%  
465 1.0% 24%  
466 0.9% 23%  
467 1.4% 22%  
468 2% 20%  
469 0.5% 18%  
470 1.2% 18%  
471 0.6% 17%  
472 0.7% 16%  
473 0.7% 15%  
474 0.7% 15%  
475 0.5% 14%  
476 0.6% 14%  
477 0.6% 13%  
478 0.5% 12%  
479 0.6% 12%  
480 0.5% 11%  
481 0.3% 11%  
482 0.4% 10%  
483 0.3% 10%  
484 0.5% 10%  
485 0.5% 9%  
486 0.5% 9%  
487 0.4% 8%  
488 0.4% 8%  
489 0.5% 7%  
490 0.5% 7%  
491 0.5% 6%  
492 0.3% 6%  
493 0.4% 6%  
494 0.4% 5%  
495 0.4% 5%  
496 0.2% 4%  
497 0.2% 4%  
498 0.2% 4%  
499 0.4% 4%  
500 0.3% 3%  
501 0.3% 3%  
502 0.2% 3%  
503 0.1% 3%  
504 0.3% 2%  
505 0.1% 2%  
506 0.2% 2%  
507 0.2% 2%  
508 0.1% 2%  
509 0.1% 2%  
510 0.2% 1.4%  
511 0.1% 1.2%  
512 0.1% 1.1%  
513 0.1% 1.0%  
514 0.1% 0.9%  
515 0.1% 0.8%  
516 0.1% 0.7%  
517 0% 0.6%  
518 0.1% 0.6%  
519 0.1% 0.5%  
520 0% 0.4%  
521 0% 0.4%  
522 0.1% 0.3%  
523 0% 0.3%  
524 0% 0.2%  
525 0% 0.2%  
526 0% 0.2%  
527 0% 0.2%  
528 0% 0.1%  
529 0% 0.1%  
530 0% 0.1%  
531 0% 0.1%  
532 0% 0.1%  
533 0% 0.1%  
534 0% 0.1%  
535 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100% Last Result
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 99.9%  
390 0% 99.9%  
391 0% 99.9%  
392 0% 99.9%  
393 0% 99.9%  
394 0% 99.8%  
395 0% 99.8%  
396 0.1% 99.8%  
397 0% 99.7%  
398 0% 99.7%  
399 0.1% 99.6%  
400 0% 99.6%  
401 0% 99.5%  
402 0.1% 99.5%  
403 0.2% 99.5%  
404 0.2% 99.3%  
405 0.2% 99.1%  
406 0.1% 98.9%  
407 0.1% 98.8%  
408 0% 98.7%  
409 0.2% 98.7%  
410 0.2% 98.5%  
411 0.6% 98%  
412 0.6% 98%  
413 0.4% 97%  
414 0.5% 97%  
415 0.3% 96%  
416 1.2% 96%  
417 0.7% 95%  
418 0.9% 94%  
419 0.7% 93%  
420 2% 93%  
421 2% 91%  
422 0.7% 89%  
423 0.8% 88%  
424 0.3% 88%  
425 0.4% 87%  
426 0.7% 87%  
427 2% 86%  
428 2% 84%  
429 2% 82%  
430 1.1% 80%  
431 0.7% 79%  
432 0.8% 79%  
433 0.5% 78%  
434 0.9% 77%  
435 3% 76%  
436 2% 74%  
437 2% 71%  
438 2% 69%  
439 1.2% 67%  
440 3% 66%  
441 2% 63%  
442 4% 61%  
443 5% 57%  
444 3% 52%  
445 3% 49%  
446 4% 46% Median
447 3% 43%  
448 2% 40%  
449 2% 38%  
450 2% 36%  
451 1.3% 34%  
452 2% 33%  
453 2% 31%  
454 2% 29%  
455 1.3% 27%  
456 1.2% 26%  
457 0.5% 25%  
458 0.5% 24%  
459 2% 23%  
460 3% 21%  
461 2% 18%  
462 0.9% 16%  
463 0.6% 16%  
464 0.5% 15%  
465 0.7% 14%  
466 0.7% 14%  
467 0.9% 13%  
468 0.4% 12%  
469 0.1% 12%  
470 0.2% 12%  
471 0.2% 12%  
472 0.1% 11%  
473 0.2% 11%  
474 0.4% 11%  
475 0.7% 11%  
476 1.2% 10%  
477 0.9% 9%  
478 0.5% 8%  
479 0.4% 7%  
480 0.3% 7%  
481 0.5% 7%  
482 0.8% 6%  
483 1.0% 5%  
484 0.6% 4%  
485 0.3% 4%  
486 0.1% 3%  
487 0.5% 3%  
488 0.4% 3%  
489 0.3% 2%  
490 0.3% 2%  
491 0.3% 2%  
492 0.1% 2%  
493 0.2% 1.4%  
494 0.1% 1.2%  
495 0.1% 1.1%  
496 0.2% 1.0%  
497 0.1% 0.8%  
498 0.1% 0.6%  
499 0% 0.6%  
500 0% 0.5%  
501 0% 0.5%  
502 0.1% 0.5%  
503 0.1% 0.4%  
504 0.1% 0.3%  
505 0% 0.3%  
506 0% 0.2%  
507 0% 0.2%  
508 0% 0.2%  
509 0% 0.1%  
510 0% 0.1%  
511 0% 0.1%  
512 0% 0.1%  
513 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.8%  
345 0% 99.8%  
346 0% 99.8%  
347 0% 99.8%  
348 0.1% 99.7%  
349 0% 99.7%  
350 0% 99.6%  
351 0.1% 99.6%  
352 0.1% 99.5%  
353 0.1% 99.5%  
354 0.1% 99.4%  
355 0.1% 99.3%  
356 0.1% 99.2%  
357 0.2% 99.1%  
358 0.2% 98.9%  
359 0.2% 98.7%  
360 0.2% 98%  
361 0.4% 98%  
362 0.4% 98%  
363 0.4% 97%  
364 0.5% 97%  
365 0.3% 97%  
366 0.5% 96%  
367 0.6% 96%  
368 0.7% 95%  
369 0.8% 94%  
370 0.8% 94%  
371 0.9% 93%  
372 1.1% 92%  
373 0.7% 91%  
374 0.6% 90%  
375 0.8% 90%  
376 1.5% 89%  
377 0.5% 87%  
378 1.3% 87%  
379 1.4% 86%  
380 2% 84%  
381 1.3% 83%  
382 1.2% 81%  
383 1.4% 80%  
384 0.6% 79%  
385 1.0% 78%  
386 1.2% 77%  
387 2% 76%  
388 2% 74%  
389 1.4% 72%  
390 2% 71%  
391 2% 69%  
392 2% 66%  
393 2% 65%  
394 3% 62%  
395 2% 59%  
396 2% 57%  
397 3% 55%  
398 2% 52%  
399 2% 50% Median
400 2% 48%  
401 2% 46%  
402 2% 44%  
403 1.1% 42%  
404 2% 41%  
405 4% 38%  
406 1.4% 35%  
407 1.4% 33%  
408 1.3% 32%  
409 2% 30%  
410 2% 28%  
411 2% 27%  
412 2% 25%  
413 0.7% 23%  
414 1.0% 23%  
415 1.3% 22%  
416 1.3% 20%  
417 1.4% 19%  
418 0.9% 18%  
419 1.0% 17%  
420 0.5% 16%  
421 0.8% 15%  
422 0.6% 14%  
423 0.7% 14%  
424 0.4% 13%  
425 0.6% 13%  
426 0.6% 12%  
427 0.8% 11%  
428 0.4% 11%  
429 0.5% 10%  
430 0.4% 10%  
431 0.5% 9%  
432 0.5% 9%  
433 0.7% 8%  
434 0.4% 8%  
435 0.4% 7%  
436 0.5% 7%  
437 0.5% 6%  
438 0.5% 6%  
439 0.3% 5%  
440 0.4% 5%  
441 0.4% 5%  
442 0.4% 4%  
443 0.5% 4%  
444 0.5% 3%  
445 0.3% 3%  
446 0.2% 2%  
447 0.2% 2%  
448 0.2% 2%  
449 0.2% 2%  
450 0.3% 2%  
451 0.1% 1.4%  
452 0.1% 1.3%  
453 0.2% 1.2%  
454 0.1% 1.0%  
455 0.1% 0.9%  
456 0.1% 0.8%  
457 0.1% 0.7%  
458 0.1% 0.6%  
459 0.1% 0.6%  
460 0.1% 0.5%  
461 0.1% 0.4%  
462 0.1% 0.4%  
463 0% 0.3%  
464 0% 0.3%  
465 0% 0.2%  
466 0% 0.2%  
467 0% 0.2%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0% 99.9%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0% 99.8%  
98 0% 99.8%  
99 0% 99.8%  
100 0% 99.7%  
101 0.1% 99.7%  
102 0% 99.7%  
103 0.1% 99.6%  
104 0.1% 99.6%  
105 0.1% 99.5%  
106 0.1% 99.4%  
107 0.1% 99.4%  
108 0.1% 99.3%  
109 0.1% 99.2%  
110 0.1% 99.1%  
111 0.1% 99.0%  
112 0.1% 98.9%  
113 0.2% 98.7%  
114 0.1% 98.6%  
115 0.1% 98%  
116 0.1% 98%  
117 0.3% 98%  
118 0.2% 98%  
119 0.3% 98%  
120 0.1% 98%  
121 0.2% 97%  
122 0.2% 97%  
123 0.4% 97%  
124 0.4% 97%  
125 0.2% 96%  
126 0.2% 96%  
127 0.2% 96%  
128 0.3% 96%  
129 0.4% 95%  
130 0.5% 95%  
131 0.5% 94%  
132 0.3% 94%  
133 0.5% 94%  
134 0.4% 93%  
135 0.4% 93%  
136 0.6% 92%  
137 0.5% 92%  
138 0.3% 91%  
139 0.2% 91%  
140 0.6% 91%  
141 0.3% 90%  
142 0.4% 90%  
143 0.4% 89%  
144 0.4% 89%  
145 0.3% 89%  
146 0.4% 88%  
147 0.6% 88%  
148 0.7% 87%  
149 0.6% 87%  
150 0.8% 86%  
151 0.6% 85%  
152 0.6% 85%  
153 0.5% 84%  
154 0.6% 83%  
155 1.1% 83%  
156 1.0% 82%  
157 1.0% 81%  
158 2% 80%  
159 1.1% 78%  
160 0.8% 77%  
161 2% 76%  
162 1.1% 74%  
163 0.6% 73%  
164 0.9% 73%  
165 0.9% 72%  
166 2% 71%  
167 2% 69%  
168 2% 67%  
169 1.4% 66%  
170 2% 64%  
171 2% 62%  
172 1.5% 60%  
173 1.5% 58%  
174 1.1% 57%  
175 2% 56%  
176 2% 53%  
177 2% 52%  
178 3% 50% Median
179 2% 48%  
180 1.3% 46%  
181 2% 45%  
182 2% 43%  
183 2% 41%  
184 1.0% 39%  
185 2% 38%  
186 1.2% 36%  
187 2% 35%  
188 2% 33%  
189 2% 31%  
190 1.2% 30%  
191 1.1% 28%  
192 1.3% 27%  
193 1.5% 26%  
194 1.3% 25%  
195 1.3% 23%  
196 1.4% 22%  
197 1.4% 21%  
198 0.7% 19%  
199 0.6% 19%  
200 1.1% 18%  
201 1.2% 17%  
202 2% 16%  
203 0.8% 14%  
204 0.5% 13%  
205 0.8% 13%  
206 1.0% 12%  
207 0.5% 11%  
208 0.7% 10%  
209 0.7% 10%  
210 0.6% 9%  
211 0.4% 8%  
212 0.7% 8%  
213 0.9% 7%  
214 0.4% 6%  
215 0.4% 6%  
216 0.4% 5%  
217 0.5% 5%  
218 0.4% 4%  
219 0.3% 4%  
220 0.3% 4%  
221 0.4% 3%  
222 0.4% 3%  
223 0.3% 2%  
224 0.2% 2%  
225 0.3% 2%  
226 0.2% 2%  
227 0.1% 2%  
228 0.2% 1.5%  
229 0.2% 1.3%  
230 0.1% 1.1%  
231 0.1% 1.0%  
232 0.1% 0.8%  
233 0.1% 0.7%  
234 0.1% 0.7%  
235 0.1% 0.6%  
236 0.1% 0.5%  
237 0.1% 0.5%  
238 0% 0.4%  
239 0% 0.4%  
240 0% 0.3%  
241 0% 0.3%  
242 0% 0.3%  
243 0% 0.2%  
244 0% 0.2%  
245 0% 0.2%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0% 99.8%  
117 0% 99.8%  
118 0% 99.8%  
119 0.1% 99.7%  
120 0.1% 99.7%  
121 0.1% 99.6%  
122 0% 99.5%  
123 0% 99.5%  
124 0% 99.5%  
125 0.1% 99.4%  
126 0.2% 99.4%  
127 0.2% 99.2%  
128 0.1% 99.0%  
129 0.1% 98.9%  
130 0.1% 98.8%  
131 0.2% 98.6%  
132 0.4% 98%  
133 0.2% 98%  
134 0.2% 98%  
135 0.5% 98%  
136 0.3% 97%  
137 0.3% 97%  
138 0.3% 97%  
139 0.6% 96%  
140 0.9% 96%  
141 0.6% 95%  
142 0.8% 94%  
143 0.2% 93%  
144 0.6% 93%  
145 0.6% 93%  
146 1.0% 92%  
147 0.7% 91%  
148 1.0% 90%  
149 0.3% 89%  
150 0.2% 89%  
151 0.2% 89%  
152 0.3% 89%  
153 0.1% 88%  
154 0.1% 88%  
155 0.1% 88%  
156 0.3% 88%  
157 0.4% 88%  
158 0.9% 87%  
159 0.7% 86%  
160 0.5% 86%  
161 0.6% 85%  
162 0.4% 85%  
163 1.2% 84%  
164 2% 83%  
165 3% 81%  
166 1.5% 78%  
167 0.8% 76%  
168 0.5% 76%  
169 2% 75%  
170 2% 73%  
171 2% 72%  
172 2% 70%  
173 1.1% 68%  
174 1.0% 67%  
175 2% 66%  
176 3% 64%  
177 2% 61%  
178 2% 59%  
179 3% 57%  
180 3% 54%  
181 4% 51% Median
182 6% 47%  
183 2% 41%  
184 2% 38%  
185 2% 36%  
186 2% 34%  
187 2% 32%  
188 1.5% 30%  
189 2% 29%  
190 2% 27%  
191 2% 24%  
192 0.5% 23%  
193 0.3% 22%  
194 1.0% 22%  
195 1.4% 21%  
196 2% 19%  
197 2% 17%  
198 0.9% 15%  
199 0.5% 14%  
200 0.7% 14%  
201 0.7% 13%  
202 0.6% 12%  
203 1.3% 12%  
204 0.9% 10%  
205 1.0% 9%  
206 2% 8%  
207 0.7% 7%  
208 1.0% 6%  
209 0.6% 5%  
210 0.6% 4%  
211 0.4% 4%  
212 0.5% 3%  
213 0.5% 3%  
214 0.3% 2%  
215 0.4% 2%  
216 0.1% 1.4%  
217 0.1% 1.3%  
218 0% 1.3%  
219 0.1% 1.2%  
220 0.2% 1.2%  
221 0.2% 0.9%  
222 0.1% 0.7%  
223 0.1% 0.6%  
224 0% 0.5%  
225 0% 0.5%  
226 0% 0.4%  
227 0.1% 0.4%  
228 0% 0.3%  
229 0% 0.3%  
230 0% 0.2%  
231 0% 0.2%  
232 0% 0.2%  
233 0% 0.2%  
234 0% 0.1%  
235 0% 0.1%  
236 0% 0.1%  
237 0% 0.1%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 99.9%  
50 0% 99.9%  
51 0% 99.9%  
52 0% 99.9%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0% 99.9%  
57 0% 99.8%  
58 0% 99.8%  
59 0% 99.8%  
60 0% 99.7%  
61 0% 99.7%  
62 0.1% 99.6%  
63 0.1% 99.6%  
64 0% 99.5%  
65 0.1% 99.5%  
66 0.1% 99.4%  
67 0.1% 99.3%  
68 0.1% 99.2%  
69 0.2% 99.1%  
70 0.1% 98.9%  
71 0.2% 98.7%  
72 0.2% 98.6%  
73 0.2% 98%  
74 0.2% 98%  
75 0.1% 98%  
76 0.2% 98%  
77 0.2% 98%  
78 0.1% 98%  
79 0.4% 97%  
80 0.3% 97%  
81 0.4% 97%  
82 0.4% 96%  
83 0.4% 96%  
84 0.4% 95%  
85 0.4% 95%  
86 0.3% 95%  
87 0.5% 94%  
88 0.3% 94%  
89 0.5% 94%  
90 0.4% 93%  
91 0.4% 93%  
92 0.5% 92%  
93 0.4% 92%  
94 0.7% 91%  
95 0.4% 91%  
96 0.4% 90%  
97 0.8% 90%  
98 0.3% 89%  
99 0.2% 89%  
100 0.4% 89%  
101 0.3% 88%  
102 0.3% 88%  
103 0.3% 88%  
104 0.5% 87%  
105 0.4% 87%  
106 0.9% 86%  
107 0.6% 85%  
108 0.7% 85%  
109 0.5% 84%  
110 0.8% 84%  
111 0.9% 83%  
112 0.6% 82%  
113 0.9% 81%  
114 1.2% 81%  
115 2% 79%  
116 2% 77%  
117 1.2% 75%  
118 0.6% 74%  
119 2% 73%  
120 2% 72%  
121 1.4% 69%  
122 2% 68%  
123 1.2% 66%  
124 1.1% 65%  
125 1.4% 64%  
126 2% 63%  
127 1.3% 61%  
128 1.5% 60%  
129 2% 58%  
130 6% 56%  
131 2% 50% Median
132 2% 48%  
133 1.1% 46%  
134 1.1% 45%  
135 2% 44%  
136 0.9% 42%  
137 1.0% 41%  
138 1.5% 40%  
139 3% 38%  
140 2% 35%  
141 1.3% 33%  
142 2% 32%  
143 1.3% 30%  
144 1.0% 29%  
145 1.3% 28%  
146 2% 26%  
147 1.2% 25%  
148 2% 24%  
149 2% 22%  
150 0.9% 20%  
151 0.8% 19%  
152 1.2% 18%  
153 0.8% 17%  
154 1.3% 16%  
155 1.2% 15%  
156 0.8% 13%  
157 0.7% 13%  
158 0.7% 12%  
159 0.6% 11%  
160 0.5% 11%  
161 0.7% 10%  
162 0.7% 9%  
163 0.7% 9%  
164 1.2% 8%  
165 1.0% 7%  
166 0.5% 6%  
167 0.7% 5%  
168 0.5% 5%  
169 0.3% 4%  
170 0.4% 4%  
171 0.3% 3%  
172 0.4% 3%  
173 0.3% 3%  
174 0.3% 2%  
175 0.3% 2%  
176 0.2% 2%  
177 0.2% 2%  
178 0.2% 1.5%  
179 0.1% 1.3%  
180 0.1% 1.2%  
181 0.2% 1.0%  
182 0.1% 0.9%  
183 0.1% 0.7%  
184 0.1% 0.7%  
185 0.1% 0.6%  
186 0% 0.5%  
187 0% 0.4%  
188 0% 0.4%  
189 0% 0.3%  
190 0% 0.3%  
191 0% 0.3%  
192 0% 0.3%  
193 0% 0.2%  
194 0% 0.2%  
195 0% 0.2%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations