Opinion Poll by Opinium for The Observer, 21–23 June 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 32.1% 47.9% 46.4–49.4% 46.0–49.8% 45.7–50.2% 45.0–50.9%
Conservative Party 43.6% 28.3% 27.0–29.7% 26.7–30.1% 26.3–30.4% 25.7–31.0%
Liberal Democrats 11.5% 8.7% 7.9–9.6% 7.7–9.9% 7.5–10.1% 7.2–10.5%
Green Party 2.8% 6.0% 5.3–6.7% 5.1–6.9% 5.0–7.1% 4.7–7.5%
Brexit Party 2.0% 4.8% 4.2–5.4% 4.0–5.6% 3.9–5.8% 3.6–6.2%
Scottish National Party 3.9% 2.2% 1.8–2.7% 1.7–2.8% 1.6–3.0% 1.5–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 202 395 381–413 375–417 371–420 362–426
Conservative Party 365 192 172–210 167–216 163–222 155–231
Liberal Democrats 11 20 13–23 12–25 12–26 9–27
Green Party 1 1 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–3
Brexit Party 0 3 2–3 2–4 0–4 0–4
Scottish National Party 48 16 8–24 7–29 5–32 3–38

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0% 99.9%  
356 0% 99.9%  
357 0% 99.9%  
358 0% 99.8%  
359 0.1% 99.8%  
360 0.1% 99.7%  
361 0.1% 99.6%  
362 0.1% 99.6%  
363 0.1% 99.5%  
364 0.2% 99.4%  
365 0.2% 99.2%  
366 0.2% 99.0%  
367 0.2% 98.8%  
368 0.4% 98.6%  
369 0.3% 98%  
370 0.4% 98%  
371 0.4% 98%  
372 0.5% 97%  
373 0.6% 97%  
374 0.5% 96%  
375 0.7% 96%  
376 0.9% 95%  
377 1.1% 94%  
378 1.1% 93%  
379 0.8% 92%  
380 0.8% 91%  
381 1.1% 90%  
382 2% 89%  
383 1.3% 88%  
384 1.2% 86%  
385 2% 85%  
386 3% 83%  
387 5% 80%  
388 4% 75%  
389 3% 71%  
390 3% 69%  
391 4% 65%  
392 5% 61%  
393 3% 57%  
394 3% 54%  
395 3% 51% Median
396 3% 48%  
397 3% 44%  
398 3% 41%  
399 2% 38%  
400 3% 35%  
401 2% 32%  
402 2% 30%  
403 1.4% 28%  
404 2% 27%  
405 2% 25%  
406 2% 23%  
407 2% 21%  
408 2% 19%  
409 2% 18%  
410 2% 16%  
411 2% 14%  
412 1.4% 12%  
413 2% 10%  
414 1.2% 9%  
415 1.4% 8%  
416 1.0% 6%  
417 1.0% 5%  
418 0.7% 4%  
419 1.0% 4%  
420 0.6% 3%  
421 0.4% 2%  
422 0.4% 2%  
423 0.3% 1.2%  
424 0.2% 0.9%  
425 0.2% 0.7%  
426 0.1% 0.6%  
427 0.1% 0.5%  
428 0.1% 0.4%  
429 0% 0.3%  
430 0% 0.2%  
431 0% 0.2%  
432 0% 0.2%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0% 99.8%  
151 0% 99.8%  
152 0.1% 99.8%  
153 0% 99.7%  
154 0.1% 99.6%  
155 0.1% 99.6%  
156 0.1% 99.5%  
157 0.2% 99.4%  
158 0.2% 99.2%  
159 0.2% 99.0%  
160 0.3% 98.7%  
161 0.3% 98%  
162 0.6% 98%  
163 0.5% 98%  
164 0.5% 97%  
165 0.6% 97%  
166 0.8% 96%  
167 1.0% 95%  
168 0.9% 94%  
169 1.2% 93%  
170 1.0% 92%  
171 0.9% 91%  
172 1.4% 90%  
173 1.4% 89%  
174 2% 88%  
175 1.4% 86%  
176 1.2% 84%  
177 1.4% 83%  
178 2% 82%  
179 2% 80%  
180 1.4% 79%  
181 2% 77%  
182 2% 76%  
183 2% 74%  
184 3% 71%  
185 1.3% 68%  
186 2% 67%  
187 2% 65%  
188 3% 63%  
189 3% 60%  
190 2% 58%  
191 3% 55%  
192 3% 52% Median
193 4% 50%  
194 2% 46%  
195 3% 44%  
196 2% 41%  
197 3% 39%  
198 3% 36%  
199 2% 33%  
200 3% 30%  
201 2% 27%  
202 2% 25%  
203 2% 23%  
204 2% 21%  
205 2% 19%  
206 2% 17%  
207 1.4% 15%  
208 1.3% 13%  
209 1.2% 12%  
210 0.9% 11%  
211 1.0% 10%  
212 1.1% 9%  
213 0.9% 8%  
214 0.7% 7%  
215 0.6% 6%  
216 0.8% 6%  
217 0.6% 5%  
218 0.6% 4%  
219 0.5% 4%  
220 0.3% 3%  
221 0.3% 3%  
222 0.4% 3%  
223 0.4% 2%  
224 0.3% 2%  
225 0.2% 2%  
226 0.2% 1.4%  
227 0.2% 1.2%  
228 0.2% 1.0%  
229 0.1% 0.8%  
230 0.1% 0.7%  
231 0.1% 0.6%  
232 0.1% 0.5%  
233 0.1% 0.4%  
234 0% 0.3%  
235 0.1% 0.2%  
236 0% 0.2%  
237 0% 0.1%  
238 0% 0.1%  
239 0% 0.1%  
240 0% 0.1%  
241 0% 0.1%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.5% 99.8%  
10 0.6% 99.3%  
11 0.6% 98.7% Last Result
12 7% 98%  
13 1.4% 91%  
14 0.4% 90%  
15 14% 89%  
16 1.0% 76%  
17 2% 75%  
18 0.7% 73%  
19 15% 72%  
20 17% 57% Median
21 4% 40%  
22 16% 36%  
23 11% 20%  
24 2% 9%  
25 4% 7%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.6% 1.1%  
28 0.2% 0.5%  
29 0.1% 0.3%  
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 82% 100% Last Result, Median
2 9% 18%  
3 10% 10%  
4 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 2% 97%  
2 17% 95%  
3 74% 79% Median
4 5% 5%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0.2% 99.9%  
2 0.1% 99.7%  
3 0.4% 99.6%  
4 0.7% 99.2%  
5 2% 98.5%  
6 1.0% 97%  
7 2% 96%  
8 6% 94%  
9 3% 87%  
10 7% 85%  
11 4% 78%  
12 0.9% 73%  
13 4% 72%  
14 3% 68%  
15 8% 65%  
16 9% 58% Median
17 14% 49%  
18 9% 35%  
19 6% 26%  
20 2% 20%  
21 2% 18%  
22 2% 15%  
23 2% 13%  
24 1.4% 11%  
25 0.7% 10%  
26 2% 9%  
27 0.8% 7%  
28 0.8% 6%  
29 1.0% 5%  
30 0.5% 4%  
31 0.8% 4%  
32 0.5% 3%  
33 0.6% 2%  
34 0.5% 2%  
35 0.2% 1.3%  
36 0.3% 1.0%  
37 0.2% 0.7%  
38 0.1% 0.6%  
39 0.2% 0.5%  
40 0.1% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 261 431 100% 413–451 407–456 401–460 392–468
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 213 415 100% 397–434 391–439 386–443 377–450
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 250 411 100% 396–430 390–434 385–438 377–445
Labour Party 202 395 100% 381–413 375–417 371–420 362–426
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 376 212 0% 193–227 189–233 186–237 179–246
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 413 208 0% 189–226 184–232 180–237 173–246
Conservative Party 365 192 0% 172–210 167–216 163–222 155–231

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100% Last Result
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0% 99.9%  
385 0% 99.9%  
386 0% 99.9%  
387 0% 99.9%  
388 0.1% 99.8%  
389 0% 99.8%  
390 0.1% 99.7%  
391 0.1% 99.6%  
392 0.1% 99.5%  
393 0.1% 99.4%  
394 0.1% 99.3%  
395 0.2% 99.2%  
396 0.2% 99.1%  
397 0.2% 98.8%  
398 0.2% 98.6%  
399 0.3% 98%  
400 0.4% 98%  
401 0.4% 98%  
402 0.2% 97%  
403 0.3% 97%  
404 0.5% 97%  
405 0.6% 96%  
406 0.6% 96%  
407 0.9% 95%  
408 0.6% 94%  
409 0.6% 94%  
410 0.9% 93%  
411 1.0% 92%  
412 1.1% 91%  
413 1.0% 90%  
414 1.2% 89%  
415 1.3% 88%  
416 2% 87%  
417 2% 85%  
418 2% 83%  
419 2% 81%  
420 2% 79%  
421 2% 77%  
422 3% 75%  
423 3% 72%  
424 3% 70%  
425 3% 67%  
426 3% 64%  
427 2% 61%  
428 3% 59%  
429 2% 56%  
430 3% 54%  
431 3% 50% Median
432 3% 47%  
433 3% 45%  
434 2% 42%  
435 3% 40%  
436 2% 37%  
437 2% 35%  
438 1.4% 33%  
439 2% 31%  
440 2% 29%  
441 2% 26%  
442 1.3% 24%  
443 2% 23%  
444 2% 21%  
445 2% 20%  
446 1.3% 18%  
447 1.1% 17%  
448 2% 16%  
449 1.2% 14%  
450 2% 13%  
451 1.3% 11%  
452 1.2% 10%  
453 0.9% 9%  
454 0.9% 8%  
455 1.1% 7%  
456 0.9% 6%  
457 0.8% 5%  
458 0.7% 4%  
459 0.6% 3%  
460 0.4% 3%  
461 0.4% 2%  
462 0.4% 2%  
463 0.2% 2%  
464 0.3% 1.3%  
465 0.2% 1.0%  
466 0.2% 0.8%  
467 0.1% 0.6%  
468 0.1% 0.5%  
469 0.1% 0.4%  
470 0% 0.4%  
471 0.1% 0.3%  
472 0% 0.2%  
473 0% 0.2%  
474 0% 0.2%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0.1%  
479 0% 0.1%  
480 0% 0.1%  
481 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
213 0% 100% Last Result
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0% 99.9%  
369 0% 99.9%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0% 99.9%  
372 0% 99.8%  
373 0% 99.8%  
374 0.1% 99.7%  
375 0.1% 99.7%  
376 0.1% 99.6%  
377 0.1% 99.5%  
378 0.1% 99.5%  
379 0.2% 99.3%  
380 0.2% 99.2%  
381 0.2% 99.0%  
382 0.2% 98.8%  
383 0.3% 98.7%  
384 0.2% 98%  
385 0.4% 98%  
386 0.3% 98%  
387 0.4% 97%  
388 0.5% 97%  
389 0.5% 97%  
390 0.7% 96%  
391 0.7% 95%  
392 0.6% 95%  
393 0.8% 94%  
394 0.8% 93%  
395 0.8% 93%  
396 0.7% 92%  
397 1.3% 91%  
398 1.3% 90%  
399 2% 89%  
400 1.5% 87%  
401 2% 86%  
402 2% 84%  
403 2% 82%  
404 2% 80%  
405 2% 79%  
406 3% 77%  
407 3% 74%  
408 3% 70%  
409 2% 67%  
410 3% 65%  
411 4% 62%  
412 3% 58%  
413 3% 56%  
414 3% 53%  
415 4% 50% Median
416 2% 46%  
417 3% 44%  
418 2% 41%  
419 3% 38%  
420 3% 36%  
421 2% 33%  
422 2% 31%  
423 2% 29%  
424 2% 27%  
425 1.1% 25%  
426 2% 24%  
427 2% 22%  
428 2% 21%  
429 1.4% 19%  
430 2% 17%  
431 1.4% 16%  
432 2% 14%  
433 1.4% 13%  
434 2% 11%  
435 1.2% 10%  
436 0.9% 9%  
437 1.2% 8%  
438 1.1% 6%  
439 0.7% 5%  
440 0.9% 5%  
441 0.7% 4%  
442 0.5% 3%  
443 0.4% 3%  
444 0.5% 2%  
445 0.4% 2%  
446 0.2% 1.2%  
447 0.2% 1.0%  
448 0.1% 0.8%  
449 0.1% 0.7%  
450 0.1% 0.6%  
451 0.1% 0.5%  
452 0.1% 0.4%  
453 0.1% 0.3%  
454 0% 0.2%  
455 0% 0.2%  
456 0% 0.2%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100% Last Result
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 99.9%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0% 99.9%  
372 0% 99.9%  
373 0% 99.8%  
374 0% 99.8%  
375 0.1% 99.7%  
376 0.1% 99.7%  
377 0.2% 99.6%  
378 0.1% 99.4%  
379 0.1% 99.3%  
380 0.2% 99.2%  
381 0.2% 99.0%  
382 0.2% 98.7%  
383 0.2% 98%  
384 0.3% 98%  
385 0.4% 98%  
386 0.5% 97%  
387 0.5% 97%  
388 0.5% 96%  
389 0.4% 96%  
390 0.6% 96%  
391 0.8% 95%  
392 0.7% 94%  
393 0.8% 93%  
394 1.1% 93%  
395 2% 92%  
396 1.1% 90%  
397 1.2% 89%  
398 2% 88%  
399 2% 85%  
400 2% 84%  
401 2% 82%  
402 3% 80%  
403 3% 77%  
404 2% 74%  
405 3% 71%  
406 3% 68%  
407 4% 65%  
408 3% 62%  
409 4% 58%  
410 3% 55%  
411 3% 51% Median
412 3% 48%  
413 3% 45%  
414 3% 43%  
415 3% 40%  
416 2% 37%  
417 3% 35%  
418 2% 32%  
419 3% 30%  
420 2% 28%  
421 2% 25%  
422 2% 23%  
423 1.3% 22%  
424 1.5% 20%  
425 2% 19%  
426 2% 17%  
427 1.4% 15%  
428 2% 14%  
429 1.3% 12%  
430 2% 11%  
431 1.2% 9%  
432 1.5% 8%  
433 0.8% 7%  
434 0.9% 6%  
435 0.9% 5%  
436 0.8% 4%  
437 0.6% 3%  
438 0.4% 3%  
439 0.6% 2%  
440 0.3% 2%  
441 0.3% 1.3%  
442 0.2% 1.0%  
443 0.2% 0.8%  
444 0.1% 0.6%  
445 0.1% 0.5%  
446 0.1% 0.4%  
447 0.1% 0.3%  
448 0.1% 0.3%  
449 0% 0.2%  
450 0% 0.2%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0% 99.9%  
356 0% 99.9%  
357 0% 99.9%  
358 0% 99.8%  
359 0.1% 99.8%  
360 0.1% 99.7%  
361 0.1% 99.6%  
362 0.1% 99.6%  
363 0.1% 99.5%  
364 0.2% 99.4%  
365 0.2% 99.2%  
366 0.2% 99.0%  
367 0.2% 98.8%  
368 0.4% 98.6%  
369 0.3% 98%  
370 0.4% 98%  
371 0.4% 98%  
372 0.5% 97%  
373 0.6% 97%  
374 0.5% 96%  
375 0.7% 96%  
376 0.9% 95%  
377 1.1% 94%  
378 1.1% 93%  
379 0.8% 92%  
380 0.8% 91%  
381 1.1% 90%  
382 2% 89%  
383 1.3% 88%  
384 1.2% 86%  
385 2% 85%  
386 3% 83%  
387 5% 80%  
388 4% 75%  
389 3% 71%  
390 3% 69%  
391 4% 65%  
392 5% 61%  
393 3% 57%  
394 3% 54%  
395 3% 51% Median
396 3% 48%  
397 3% 44%  
398 3% 41%  
399 2% 38%  
400 3% 35%  
401 2% 32%  
402 2% 30%  
403 1.4% 28%  
404 2% 27%  
405 2% 25%  
406 2% 23%  
407 2% 21%  
408 2% 19%  
409 2% 18%  
410 2% 16%  
411 2% 14%  
412 1.4% 12%  
413 2% 10%  
414 1.2% 9%  
415 1.4% 8%  
416 1.0% 6%  
417 1.0% 5%  
418 0.7% 4%  
419 1.0% 4%  
420 0.6% 3%  
421 0.4% 2%  
422 0.4% 2%  
423 0.3% 1.2%  
424 0.2% 0.9%  
425 0.2% 0.7%  
426 0.1% 0.6%  
427 0.1% 0.5%  
428 0.1% 0.4%  
429 0% 0.3%  
430 0% 0.2%  
431 0% 0.2%  
432 0% 0.2%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
168 0% 100%  
169 0% 99.9%  
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0% 99.9%  
172 0% 99.9%  
173 0% 99.9%  
174 0% 99.8%  
175 0.1% 99.8%  
176 0.1% 99.7%  
177 0.1% 99.7%  
178 0.1% 99.6%  
179 0.1% 99.5%  
180 0.2% 99.4%  
181 0.2% 99.2%  
182 0.3% 99.1%  
183 0.4% 98.8%  
184 0.5% 98%  
185 0.3% 98%  
186 0.6% 98%  
187 0.8% 97%  
188 0.9% 96%  
189 1.0% 95%  
190 1.0% 94%  
191 1.2% 93%  
192 1.2% 92%  
193 2% 91%  
194 2% 89%  
195 1.4% 88%  
196 2% 86%  
197 2% 85%  
198 2% 83%  
199 2% 81%  
200 2% 80%  
201 2% 78%  
202 2% 77%  
203 2% 74%  
204 3% 72%  
205 2% 70%  
206 3% 68%  
207 2% 65%  
208 3% 63%  
209 3% 60%  
210 2% 57%  
211 3% 55%  
212 3% 51% Median
213 3% 48%  
214 3% 45%  
215 3% 42%  
216 4% 38%  
217 3% 35%  
218 2% 31%  
219 3% 29%  
220 3% 26%  
221 3% 23%  
222 2% 20%  
223 1.4% 18%  
224 2% 17%  
225 2% 14%  
226 1.1% 12%  
227 1.2% 11%  
228 2% 10%  
229 0.9% 8%  
230 0.8% 7%  
231 0.7% 7%  
232 0.7% 6%  
233 0.6% 5%  
234 0.5% 5%  
235 0.5% 4%  
236 0.5% 3%  
237 0.5% 3%  
238 0.4% 2%  
239 0.4% 2%  
240 0.2% 2%  
241 0.3% 2%  
242 0.2% 1.3%  
243 0.2% 1.0%  
244 0.1% 0.8%  
245 0.1% 0.7%  
246 0.2% 0.6%  
247 0.1% 0.4%  
248 0.1% 0.3%  
249 0% 0.3%  
250 0% 0.2%  
251 0% 0.2%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
162 0% 100%  
163 0% 99.9%  
164 0% 99.9%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0% 99.9%  
167 0% 99.9%  
168 0% 99.8%  
169 0% 99.8%  
170 0.1% 99.8%  
171 0.1% 99.7%  
172 0.1% 99.6%  
173 0.1% 99.6%  
174 0.1% 99.4%  
175 0.1% 99.3%  
176 0.2% 99.2%  
177 0.2% 99.0%  
178 0.4% 98.8%  
179 0.5% 98%  
180 0.5% 98%  
181 0.4% 97%  
182 0.8% 97%  
183 0.7% 96%  
184 0.9% 96%  
185 1.0% 95%  
186 1.2% 94%  
187 1.0% 92%  
188 1.1% 91%  
189 1.5% 90%  
190 2% 89%  
191 2% 87%  
192 2% 86%  
193 2% 84%  
194 1.4% 82%  
195 1.3% 81%  
196 1.1% 80%  
197 3% 78%  
198 1.5% 76%  
199 2% 74%  
200 2% 73%  
201 2% 71%  
202 2% 69%  
203 3% 67%  
204 3% 64%  
205 2% 61%  
206 3% 59%  
207 3% 56%  
208 4% 53% Median
209 3% 50%  
210 3% 47%  
211 3% 44%  
212 3% 41%  
213 4% 38%  
214 2% 34%  
215 3% 32%  
216 3% 29%  
217 3% 26%  
218 2% 23%  
219 2% 21%  
220 2% 20%  
221 2% 18%  
222 2% 16%  
223 2% 14%  
224 1.4% 13%  
225 1.3% 11%  
226 1.1% 10%  
227 0.7% 9%  
228 0.9% 8%  
229 0.8% 7%  
230 0.7% 7%  
231 0.6% 6%  
232 0.7% 5%  
233 0.7% 5%  
234 0.5% 4%  
235 0.5% 3%  
236 0.4% 3%  
237 0.3% 3%  
238 0.3% 2%  
239 0.2% 2%  
240 0.3% 2%  
241 0.2% 1.3%  
242 0.2% 1.1%  
243 0.2% 1.0%  
244 0.2% 0.8%  
245 0.1% 0.6%  
246 0.1% 0.5%  
247 0.1% 0.5%  
248 0.1% 0.4%  
249 0.1% 0.3%  
250 0% 0.3%  
251 0% 0.2%  
252 0% 0.2%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0% 99.8%  
151 0% 99.8%  
152 0.1% 99.8%  
153 0% 99.7%  
154 0.1% 99.6%  
155 0.1% 99.6%  
156 0.1% 99.5%  
157 0.2% 99.4%  
158 0.2% 99.2%  
159 0.2% 99.0%  
160 0.3% 98.7%  
161 0.3% 98%  
162 0.6% 98%  
163 0.5% 98%  
164 0.5% 97%  
165 0.6% 97%  
166 0.8% 96%  
167 1.0% 95%  
168 0.9% 94%  
169 1.2% 93%  
170 1.0% 92%  
171 0.9% 91%  
172 1.4% 90%  
173 1.4% 89%  
174 2% 88%  
175 1.4% 86%  
176 1.2% 84%  
177 1.4% 83%  
178 2% 82%  
179 2% 80%  
180 1.4% 79%  
181 2% 77%  
182 2% 76%  
183 2% 74%  
184 3% 71%  
185 1.3% 68%  
186 2% 67%  
187 2% 65%  
188 3% 63%  
189 3% 60%  
190 2% 58%  
191 3% 55%  
192 3% 52% Median
193 4% 50%  
194 2% 46%  
195 3% 44%  
196 2% 41%  
197 3% 39%  
198 3% 36%  
199 2% 33%  
200 3% 30%  
201 2% 27%  
202 2% 25%  
203 2% 23%  
204 2% 21%  
205 2% 19%  
206 2% 17%  
207 1.4% 15%  
208 1.3% 13%  
209 1.2% 12%  
210 0.9% 11%  
211 1.0% 10%  
212 1.1% 9%  
213 0.9% 8%  
214 0.7% 7%  
215 0.6% 6%  
216 0.8% 6%  
217 0.6% 5%  
218 0.6% 4%  
219 0.5% 4%  
220 0.3% 3%  
221 0.3% 3%  
222 0.4% 3%  
223 0.4% 2%  
224 0.3% 2%  
225 0.2% 2%  
226 0.2% 1.4%  
227 0.2% 1.2%  
228 0.2% 1.0%  
229 0.1% 0.8%  
230 0.1% 0.7%  
231 0.1% 0.6%  
232 0.1% 0.5%  
233 0.1% 0.4%  
234 0% 0.3%  
235 0.1% 0.2%  
236 0% 0.2%  
237 0% 0.1%  
238 0% 0.1%  
239 0% 0.1%  
240 0% 0.1%  
241 0% 0.1%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations