Opinion Poll by Savanta, 7–9 July 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 32.1% 46.6% 45.3–48.0% 44.9–48.4% 44.5–48.7% 43.9–49.4%
Conservative Party 43.6% 31.1% 29.8–32.4% 29.5–32.8% 29.2–33.1% 28.6–33.7%
Liberal Democrats 11.5% 10.4% 9.5–11.2% 9.3–11.5% 9.1–11.7% 8.8–12.1%
Scottish National Party 3.9% 3.1% 2.7–3.6% 2.5–3.8% 2.4–3.9% 2.3–4.2%
Green Party 2.8% 2.4% 2.0–2.9% 1.9–3.0% 1.8–3.1% 1.7–3.4%
Brexit Party 2.0% 2.3% 1.9–2.7% 1.8–2.9% 1.7–3.0% 1.6–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 202 360 345–378 341–383 339–387 333–393
Conservative Party 365 210 192–226 188–230 185–232 178–238
Liberal Democrats 11 23 18–27 16–27 15–28 11–32
Scottish National Party 48 33 22–43 19–45 17–48 13–52
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0.1% 99.8%  
332 0.1% 99.8%  
333 0.2% 99.7%  
334 0.2% 99.4%  
335 0.2% 99.3%  
336 0.3% 99.0%  
337 0.3% 98.7%  
338 0.5% 98%  
339 0.8% 98%  
340 1.2% 97%  
341 1.0% 96%  
342 0.9% 95%  
343 1.3% 94%  
344 2% 93%  
345 2% 91%  
346 2% 90%  
347 2% 88%  
348 2% 86%  
349 2% 84%  
350 2% 81%  
351 2% 79%  
352 3% 77%  
353 3% 74%  
354 3% 71%  
355 3% 69%  
356 3% 65%  
357 3% 63%  
358 4% 60%  
359 3% 56%  
360 3% 53% Median
361 3% 50%  
362 3% 47%  
363 3% 43%  
364 3% 41%  
365 3% 37%  
366 3% 35%  
367 2% 32%  
368 2% 30%  
369 2% 28%  
370 2% 25%  
371 2% 23%  
372 2% 22%  
373 2% 20%  
374 1.4% 18%  
375 2% 17%  
376 1.1% 14%  
377 2% 13%  
378 1.4% 11%  
379 2% 10%  
380 1.3% 8%  
381 0.8% 7%  
382 0.9% 6%  
383 0.7% 5%  
384 0.9% 4%  
385 0.5% 4%  
386 0.5% 3%  
387 0.4% 3%  
388 0.6% 2%  
389 0.4% 2%  
390 0.3% 1.1%  
391 0.2% 0.9%  
392 0.1% 0.7%  
393 0.1% 0.6%  
394 0.1% 0.5%  
395 0.1% 0.3%  
396 0.1% 0.3%  
397 0.1% 0.2%  
398 0% 0.2%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
166 0% 100%  
167 0% 99.9%  
168 0% 99.9%  
169 0% 99.9%  
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0% 99.9%  
172 0% 99.8%  
173 0% 99.8%  
174 0% 99.8%  
175 0.1% 99.8%  
176 0.1% 99.7%  
177 0.1% 99.6%  
178 0.1% 99.5%  
179 0.1% 99.4%  
180 0.2% 99.3%  
181 0.2% 99.1%  
182 0.3% 98.8%  
183 0.4% 98.6%  
184 0.6% 98%  
185 0.5% 98%  
186 0.5% 97%  
187 0.8% 97%  
188 0.9% 96%  
189 1.2% 95%  
190 2% 94%  
191 1.4% 92%  
192 1.4% 91%  
193 1.1% 89%  
194 1.1% 88%  
195 2% 87%  
196 1.2% 85%  
197 2% 84%  
198 2% 82%  
199 2% 80%  
200 2% 78%  
201 3% 76%  
202 1.1% 73%  
203 2% 72%  
204 2% 70%  
205 3% 68%  
206 2% 65%  
207 3% 63%  
208 4% 60%  
209 3% 56%  
210 3% 53% Median
211 3% 50%  
212 2% 47%  
213 2% 45%  
214 4% 42%  
215 3% 38%  
216 4% 35%  
217 3% 32%  
218 2% 29%  
219 3% 26%  
220 1.0% 23%  
221 3% 22%  
222 2% 19%  
223 2% 18%  
224 2% 16%  
225 2% 13%  
226 2% 11%  
227 2% 9%  
228 0.8% 7%  
229 1.3% 7%  
230 1.0% 5%  
231 0.8% 4%  
232 1.0% 3%  
233 0.3% 2%  
234 0.4% 2%  
235 0.4% 2%  
236 0.4% 1.2%  
237 0.2% 0.8%  
238 0.2% 0.6%  
239 0.1% 0.4%  
240 0.1% 0.3%  
241 0.1% 0.2%  
242 0% 0.2%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.2% 99.9%  
10 0.2% 99.7%  
11 0.2% 99.5% Last Result
12 0.8% 99.3%  
13 0.6% 98%  
14 0.3% 98%  
15 2% 98%  
16 2% 96%  
17 3% 94%  
18 3% 91%  
19 6% 89%  
20 13% 83%  
21 6% 70%  
22 12% 64%  
23 18% 52% Median
24 11% 34%  
25 5% 24%  
26 7% 18%  
27 7% 11%  
28 3% 5%  
29 0.2% 2%  
30 0.4% 2%  
31 0.5% 1.2%  
32 0.4% 0.7%  
33 0.1% 0.3%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 99.9%  
11 0.1% 99.8%  
12 0.2% 99.7%  
13 0.1% 99.5%  
14 0.1% 99.4%  
15 0.2% 99.3%  
16 0.5% 99.1%  
17 1.3% 98.5%  
18 2% 97%  
19 1.2% 95%  
20 2% 94%  
21 1.3% 93%  
22 2% 91%  
23 3% 89%  
24 1.5% 86%  
25 2% 85%  
26 3% 83%  
27 2% 80%  
28 4% 78%  
29 3% 74%  
30 8% 71%  
31 9% 63%  
32 3% 54%  
33 8% 51% Median
34 3% 43%  
35 6% 40%  
36 4% 34%  
37 3% 29%  
38 3% 26%  
39 2% 22%  
40 3% 20%  
41 3% 17%  
42 3% 14%  
43 3% 11%  
44 3% 8%  
45 0.8% 5%  
46 1.3% 4%  
47 0.5% 3%  
48 0.5% 3% Last Result
49 0.4% 2%  
50 0.4% 2%  
51 0.5% 1.4%  
52 0.4% 0.8%  
53 0.2% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 99.8% 99.8% Last Result, Median
2 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 261 416 100% 400–434 396–438 394–441 388–448
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 250 393 100% 379–410 376–414 374–417 369–423
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 213 383 100% 366–402 362–407 358–411 350–419
Labour Party 202 360 100% 345–378 341–383 339–387 333–393
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 413 243 0% 224–260 219–264 215–268 207–276
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 376 233 0% 216–247 212–250 209–252 203–257
Conservative Party 365 210 0% 192–226 188–230 185–232 178–238

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100% Last Result
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 99.9%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0% 99.9%  
385 0.1% 99.8%  
386 0.1% 99.8%  
387 0.1% 99.7%  
388 0.2% 99.6%  
389 0.2% 99.4%  
390 0.4% 99.2%  
391 0.4% 98.8%  
392 0.4% 98%  
393 0.3% 98%  
394 1.0% 98%  
395 0.8% 97%  
396 1.0% 96%  
397 1.3% 95%  
398 0.8% 93%  
399 2% 93%  
400 2% 91%  
401 2% 89%  
402 2% 87%  
403 2% 84%  
404 2% 82%  
405 3% 81%  
406 1.0% 78%  
407 3% 77%  
408 2% 74%  
409 3% 72%  
410 4% 68%  
411 3% 65%  
412 4% 62%  
413 2% 58%  
414 2% 55%  
415 3% 53%  
416 3% 50% Median
417 3% 47%  
418 4% 44%  
419 3% 40%  
420 2% 37%  
421 3% 35%  
422 2% 32%  
423 2% 30%  
424 1.1% 28%  
425 3% 27%  
426 2% 24%  
427 2% 22%  
428 2% 20%  
429 2% 18%  
430 1.2% 16%  
431 2% 15%  
432 1.1% 13%  
433 1.1% 12%  
434 1.4% 11%  
435 1.4% 9%  
436 2% 8%  
437 1.2% 6%  
438 0.9% 5%  
439 0.8% 4%  
440 0.5% 3%  
441 0.5% 3%  
442 0.6% 2%  
443 0.4% 2%  
444 0.3% 1.4%  
445 0.2% 1.2%  
446 0.2% 0.9%  
447 0.1% 0.7%  
448 0.1% 0.6%  
449 0.1% 0.5%  
450 0.1% 0.4%  
451 0.1% 0.3%  
452 0% 0.2%  
453 0% 0.2%  
454 0% 0.2%  
455 0% 0.2%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100% Last Result
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 99.9%  
366 0.1% 99.9%  
367 0.2% 99.9%  
368 0.2% 99.7%  
369 0.2% 99.5%  
370 0.2% 99.3%  
371 0.4% 99.1%  
372 0.4% 98.8%  
373 0.7% 98%  
374 1.5% 98%  
375 1.2% 96%  
376 1.1% 95%  
377 2% 94%  
378 2% 92%  
379 2% 90%  
380 2% 88%  
381 2% 86%  
382 3% 85%  
383 3% 81%  
384 2% 79%  
385 2% 77%  
386 3% 74%  
387 3% 72%  
388 3% 69%  
389 3% 66%  
390 4% 63%  
391 3% 59%  
392 3% 56%  
393 4% 52% Median
394 3% 48%  
395 3% 45%  
396 3% 42%  
397 2% 39%  
398 3% 37%  
399 3% 33%  
400 3% 31%  
401 2% 28%  
402 2% 26%  
403 3% 24%  
404 2% 21%  
405 1.5% 19%  
406 2% 18%  
407 1.4% 16%  
408 2% 15%  
409 2% 13%  
410 2% 11%  
411 1.3% 9%  
412 1.4% 8%  
413 1.1% 7%  
414 0.9% 6%  
415 1.1% 5%  
416 0.9% 4%  
417 0.6% 3%  
418 0.5% 2%  
419 0.3% 2%  
420 0.2% 1.3%  
421 0.3% 1.0%  
422 0.2% 0.8%  
423 0.1% 0.6%  
424 0.1% 0.5%  
425 0.1% 0.4%  
426 0.1% 0.3%  
427 0% 0.2%  
428 0% 0.2%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
213 0% 100% Last Result
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0.1% 99.8%  
348 0.1% 99.8%  
349 0.1% 99.7%  
350 0.2% 99.6%  
351 0.1% 99.4%  
352 0.2% 99.3%  
353 0.3% 99.1%  
354 0.2% 98.9%  
355 0.2% 98.7%  
356 0.4% 98%  
357 0.4% 98%  
358 0.5% 98%  
359 0.5% 97%  
360 0.7% 97%  
361 0.6% 96%  
362 0.9% 95%  
363 1.1% 95%  
364 2% 93%  
365 1.2% 92%  
366 1.5% 91%  
367 2% 89%  
368 1.3% 87%  
369 2% 86%  
370 2% 84%  
371 2% 82%  
372 3% 80%  
373 2% 77%  
374 3% 75%  
375 3% 72%  
376 1.1% 70%  
377 3% 68%  
378 2% 65%  
379 3% 63%  
380 3% 60%  
381 4% 57%  
382 3% 53%  
383 3% 50% Median
384 2% 47%  
385 3% 45%  
386 3% 43%  
387 3% 40%  
388 3% 37%  
389 2% 34%  
390 3% 32%  
391 2% 30%  
392 2% 27%  
393 2% 25%  
394 2% 24%  
395 2% 22%  
396 2% 20%  
397 1.4% 18%  
398 2% 17%  
399 1.3% 15%  
400 1.4% 14%  
401 1.4% 13%  
402 1.3% 11%  
403 1.3% 10%  
404 0.9% 9%  
405 1.2% 8%  
406 0.9% 6%  
407 0.8% 6%  
408 0.8% 5%  
409 0.5% 4%  
410 0.6% 3%  
411 0.6% 3%  
412 0.3% 2%  
413 0.4% 2%  
414 0.3% 2%  
415 0.2% 1.2%  
416 0.2% 1.0%  
417 0.1% 0.8%  
418 0.1% 0.6%  
419 0.1% 0.5%  
420 0.1% 0.4%  
421 0.1% 0.3%  
422 0% 0.3%  
423 0.1% 0.2%  
424 0% 0.2%  
425 0% 0.2%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0.1% 99.8%  
332 0.1% 99.8%  
333 0.2% 99.7%  
334 0.2% 99.4%  
335 0.2% 99.3%  
336 0.3% 99.0%  
337 0.3% 98.7%  
338 0.5% 98%  
339 0.8% 98%  
340 1.2% 97%  
341 1.0% 96%  
342 0.9% 95%  
343 1.3% 94%  
344 2% 93%  
345 2% 91%  
346 2% 90%  
347 2% 88%  
348 2% 86%  
349 2% 84%  
350 2% 81%  
351 2% 79%  
352 3% 77%  
353 3% 74%  
354 3% 71%  
355 3% 69%  
356 3% 65%  
357 3% 63%  
358 4% 60%  
359 3% 56%  
360 3% 53% Median
361 3% 50%  
362 3% 47%  
363 3% 43%  
364 3% 41%  
365 3% 37%  
366 3% 35%  
367 2% 32%  
368 2% 30%  
369 2% 28%  
370 2% 25%  
371 2% 23%  
372 2% 22%  
373 2% 20%  
374 1.4% 18%  
375 2% 17%  
376 1.1% 14%  
377 2% 13%  
378 1.4% 11%  
379 2% 10%  
380 1.3% 8%  
381 0.8% 7%  
382 0.9% 6%  
383 0.7% 5%  
384 0.9% 4%  
385 0.5% 4%  
386 0.5% 3%  
387 0.4% 3%  
388 0.6% 2%  
389 0.4% 2%  
390 0.3% 1.1%  
391 0.2% 0.9%  
392 0.1% 0.7%  
393 0.1% 0.6%  
394 0.1% 0.5%  
395 0.1% 0.3%  
396 0.1% 0.3%  
397 0.1% 0.2%  
398 0% 0.2%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
196 0% 100%  
197 0% 99.9%  
198 0% 99.9%  
199 0% 99.9%  
200 0% 99.9%  
201 0% 99.9%  
202 0% 99.8%  
203 0.1% 99.8%  
204 0% 99.8%  
205 0.1% 99.7%  
206 0.1% 99.7%  
207 0.1% 99.6%  
208 0.1% 99.5%  
209 0.1% 99.4%  
210 0.2% 99.2%  
211 0.2% 99.0%  
212 0.3% 98.8%  
213 0.4% 98%  
214 0.3% 98%  
215 0.6% 98%  
216 0.6% 97%  
217 0.5% 97%  
218 0.8% 96%  
219 0.8% 95%  
220 0.9% 94%  
221 1.2% 94%  
222 0.9% 92%  
223 1.3% 91%  
224 1.3% 90%  
225 1.4% 89%  
226 1.4% 87%  
227 1.3% 86%  
228 2% 85%  
229 1.4% 83%  
230 2% 82%  
231 2% 80%  
232 2% 78%  
233 2% 76%  
234 2% 75%  
235 2% 73%  
236 3% 70%  
237 2% 68%  
238 3% 66%  
239 3% 63%  
240 3% 60%  
241 3% 57%  
242 2% 55%  
243 3% 53% Median
244 3% 50%  
245 4% 47%  
246 3% 43%  
247 3% 40%  
248 2% 37%  
249 3% 35%  
250 1.1% 32%  
251 3% 30%  
252 3% 28%  
253 2% 25%  
254 3% 23%  
255 2% 20%  
256 2% 18%  
257 2% 16%  
258 1.3% 14%  
259 2% 13%  
260 1.5% 11%  
261 1.2% 9%  
262 2% 8%  
263 1.1% 7%  
264 0.9% 5%  
265 0.6% 5%  
266 0.7% 4%  
267 0.5% 3%  
268 0.5% 3%  
269 0.4% 2%  
270 0.4% 2%  
271 0.2% 2%  
272 0.2% 1.3%  
273 0.3% 1.1%  
274 0.2% 0.9%  
275 0.1% 0.7%  
276 0.2% 0.6%  
277 0.1% 0.4%  
278 0.1% 0.3%  
279 0.1% 0.2%  
280 0% 0.2%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
193 0% 100%  
194 0% 99.9%  
195 0% 99.9%  
196 0% 99.9%  
197 0% 99.9%  
198 0% 99.9%  
199 0% 99.8%  
200 0.1% 99.8%  
201 0.1% 99.7%  
202 0.1% 99.6%  
203 0.1% 99.5%  
204 0.2% 99.4%  
205 0.3% 99.2%  
206 0.2% 99.0%  
207 0.3% 98.7%  
208 0.5% 98%  
209 0.6% 98%  
210 0.9% 97%  
211 1.1% 96%  
212 0.9% 95%  
213 1.1% 94%  
214 1.4% 93%  
215 1.3% 92%  
216 2% 91%  
217 2% 89%  
218 2% 87%  
219 1.4% 85%  
220 2% 84%  
221 1.5% 82%  
222 2% 81%  
223 3% 79%  
224 2% 76%  
225 2% 74%  
226 3% 72%  
227 3% 69%  
228 3% 67%  
229 2% 63%  
230 3% 61%  
231 3% 58%  
232 3% 55%  
233 4% 52% Median
234 4% 48%  
235 3% 44%  
236 4% 41%  
237 3% 37%  
238 3% 34%  
239 3% 31%  
240 3% 29%  
241 2% 26%  
242 2% 23%  
243 3% 21%  
244 3% 19%  
245 2% 15%  
246 2% 14%  
247 2% 12%  
248 2% 10%  
249 2% 8%  
250 1.1% 6%  
251 1.2% 5%  
252 1.5% 4%  
253 0.7% 2%  
254 0.4% 2%  
255 0.4% 1.2%  
256 0.2% 0.9%  
257 0.2% 0.7%  
258 0.2% 0.5%  
259 0.2% 0.3%  
260 0.1% 0.1%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0.1%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
166 0% 100%  
167 0% 99.9%  
168 0% 99.9%  
169 0% 99.9%  
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0% 99.9%  
172 0% 99.8%  
173 0% 99.8%  
174 0% 99.8%  
175 0.1% 99.8%  
176 0.1% 99.7%  
177 0.1% 99.6%  
178 0.1% 99.5%  
179 0.1% 99.4%  
180 0.2% 99.3%  
181 0.2% 99.1%  
182 0.3% 98.8%  
183 0.4% 98.6%  
184 0.6% 98%  
185 0.5% 98%  
186 0.5% 97%  
187 0.8% 97%  
188 0.9% 96%  
189 1.2% 95%  
190 2% 94%  
191 1.4% 92%  
192 1.4% 91%  
193 1.1% 89%  
194 1.1% 88%  
195 2% 87%  
196 1.2% 85%  
197 2% 84%  
198 2% 82%  
199 2% 80%  
200 2% 78%  
201 3% 76%  
202 1.1% 73%  
203 2% 72%  
204 2% 70%  
205 3% 68%  
206 2% 65%  
207 3% 63%  
208 4% 60%  
209 3% 56%  
210 3% 53% Median
211 3% 50%  
212 2% 47%  
213 2% 45%  
214 4% 42%  
215 3% 38%  
216 4% 35%  
217 3% 32%  
218 2% 29%  
219 3% 26%  
220 1.0% 23%  
221 3% 22%  
222 2% 19%  
223 2% 18%  
224 2% 16%  
225 2% 13%  
226 2% 11%  
227 2% 9%  
228 0.8% 7%  
229 1.3% 7%  
230 1.0% 5%  
231 0.8% 4%  
232 1.0% 3%  
233 0.3% 2%  
234 0.4% 2%  
235 0.4% 2%  
236 0.4% 1.2%  
237 0.2% 0.8%  
238 0.2% 0.6%  
239 0.1% 0.4%  
240 0.1% 0.3%  
241 0.1% 0.2%  
242 0% 0.2%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations