Opinion Poll by Opinium for The Observer, 19–21 July 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 32.1% 45.2% 43.4–46.9% 43.0–47.4% 42.5–47.8% 41.7–48.7%
Conservative Party 43.6% 26.9% 25.4–28.5% 24.9–28.9% 24.6–29.3% 23.9–30.1%
Liberal Democrats 11.5% 11.8% 10.7–13.0% 10.4–13.3% 10.2–13.6% 9.7–14.2%
Green Party 2.8% 5.1% 4.4–5.9% 4.2–6.1% 4.0–6.4% 3.7–6.8%
Brexit Party 2.0% 4.7% 4.0–5.5% 3.8–5.7% 3.7–5.9% 3.4–6.4%
Scottish National Party 3.9% 3.2% 2.7–3.9% 2.5–4.1% 2.4–4.3% 2.2–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 202 378 358–401 351–407 346–411 336–421
Conservative Party 365 170 145–192 139–200 134–205 123–215
Liberal Democrats 11 38 28–44 26–50 25–51 22–54
Green Party 1 1 1 1–2 1–3 1–3
Brexit Party 0 3 2–4 2–4 0–4 0–6
Scottish National Party 48 38 27–48 23–51 19–53 16–55

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 99.9%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0% 99.8%  
332 0.1% 99.8%  
333 0.1% 99.7%  
334 0.1% 99.7%  
335 0.1% 99.6%  
336 0.1% 99.5%  
337 0.1% 99.4%  
338 0.1% 99.3%  
339 0.2% 99.2%  
340 0.2% 99.0%  
341 0.2% 98.8%  
342 0.3% 98.6%  
343 0.2% 98%  
344 0.3% 98%  
345 0.3% 98%  
346 0.2% 98%  
347 0.4% 97%  
348 0.4% 97%  
349 0.4% 96%  
350 0.6% 96%  
351 0.6% 95%  
352 0.5% 95%  
353 0.7% 94%  
354 0.6% 94%  
355 0.6% 93%  
356 0.7% 92%  
357 0.9% 92%  
358 1.1% 91%  
359 1.2% 90%  
360 1.0% 88%  
361 1.5% 87%  
362 1.3% 86%  
363 1.4% 85%  
364 1.4% 83%  
365 1.2% 82%  
366 2% 81%  
367 2% 79%  
368 2% 77%  
369 2% 75%  
370 2% 73%  
371 3% 71%  
372 2% 68%  
373 3% 65%  
374 3% 63%  
375 3% 60%  
376 2% 57%  
377 2% 54%  
378 2% 52% Median
379 3% 50%  
380 2% 47%  
381 3% 45%  
382 2% 42%  
383 2% 41%  
384 2% 38%  
385 2% 36%  
386 2% 35%  
387 2% 33%  
388 2% 31%  
389 2% 29%  
390 2% 27%  
391 1.1% 25%  
392 2% 24%  
393 2% 22%  
394 1.2% 20%  
395 1.2% 19%  
396 2% 18%  
397 0.8% 16%  
398 1.4% 15%  
399 2% 14%  
400 1.2% 12%  
401 1.1% 11%  
402 1.0% 10%  
403 0.8% 9%  
404 1.2% 8%  
405 0.8% 7%  
406 0.9% 6%  
407 0.9% 5%  
408 0.6% 4%  
409 0.5% 4%  
410 0.4% 3%  
411 0.3% 3%  
412 0.4% 2%  
413 0.3% 2%  
414 0.2% 2%  
415 0.2% 1.4%  
416 0.1% 1.2%  
417 0.2% 1.1%  
418 0.1% 0.9%  
419 0.1% 0.8%  
420 0.1% 0.7%  
421 0.1% 0.6%  
422 0.1% 0.5%  
423 0.1% 0.4%  
424 0.1% 0.3%  
425 0% 0.3%  
426 0% 0.3%  
427 0% 0.2%  
428 0% 0.2%  
429 0% 0.2%  
430 0% 0.2%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0% 99.9%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0% 99.8%  
115 0% 99.8%  
116 0% 99.8%  
117 0% 99.8%  
118 0% 99.7%  
119 0.1% 99.7%  
120 0% 99.7%  
121 0.1% 99.6%  
122 0.1% 99.6%  
123 0.1% 99.5%  
124 0.1% 99.5%  
125 0.1% 99.4%  
126 0.2% 99.3%  
127 0.1% 99.1%  
128 0.1% 99.0%  
129 0.1% 98.9%  
130 0.2% 98.7%  
131 0.2% 98.6%  
132 0.4% 98%  
133 0.3% 98%  
134 0.5% 98%  
135 0.5% 97%  
136 0.4% 97%  
137 0.3% 96%  
138 0.3% 96%  
139 0.7% 96%  
140 0.9% 95%  
141 0.9% 94%  
142 0.8% 93%  
143 0.9% 92%  
144 1.1% 91%  
145 0.8% 90%  
146 1.0% 90%  
147 1.1% 89%  
148 1.1% 87%  
149 2% 86%  
150 1.0% 84%  
151 1.0% 83%  
152 2% 82%  
153 1.4% 81%  
154 2% 79%  
155 1.1% 78%  
156 1.0% 76%  
157 2% 75%  
158 1.2% 74%  
159 2% 72%  
160 1.3% 71%  
161 2% 69%  
162 2% 67%  
163 1.3% 65%  
164 2% 64%  
165 2% 62%  
166 2% 60%  
167 3% 58%  
168 2% 55%  
169 3% 53%  
170 2% 51% Median
171 3% 48%  
172 2% 46%  
173 3% 43%  
174 2% 41%  
175 2% 38%  
176 4% 36%  
177 3% 33%  
178 1.4% 30%  
179 1.4% 28%  
180 2% 27%  
181 2% 25%  
182 2% 23%  
183 2% 21%  
184 1.2% 20%  
185 2% 19%  
186 1.4% 17%  
187 1.1% 15%  
188 1.1% 14%  
189 0.9% 13%  
190 0.9% 12%  
191 0.9% 11%  
192 0.9% 10%  
193 0.7% 10%  
194 0.8% 9%  
195 0.8% 8%  
196 0.6% 7%  
197 0.6% 7%  
198 0.5% 6%  
199 0.5% 6%  
200 0.6% 5%  
201 0.6% 4%  
202 0.4% 4%  
203 0.5% 3%  
204 0.3% 3%  
205 0.3% 3%  
206 0.3% 2%  
207 0.3% 2%  
208 0.2% 2%  
209 0.3% 2%  
210 0.2% 1.3%  
211 0.2% 1.1%  
212 0.2% 1.0%  
213 0.1% 0.8%  
214 0.1% 0.7%  
215 0.1% 0.6%  
216 0.1% 0.5%  
217 0.1% 0.4%  
218 0.1% 0.3%  
219 0.1% 0.3%  
220 0% 0.2%  
221 0% 0.2%  
222 0% 0.1%  
223 0% 0.1%  
224 0% 0.1%  
225 0% 0.1%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100% Last Result
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 99.9%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 0.2% 99.7%  
22 0.4% 99.5%  
23 0.7% 99.1%  
24 0.8% 98%  
25 1.3% 98%  
26 2% 96%  
27 3% 94%  
28 4% 92%  
29 2% 88%  
30 2% 86%  
31 4% 84%  
32 5% 80%  
33 3% 75%  
34 3% 71%  
35 2% 69%  
36 5% 67%  
37 6% 61%  
38 11% 56% Median
39 8% 45%  
40 9% 36%  
41 7% 27%  
42 5% 21%  
43 4% 16%  
44 2% 12%  
45 0.5% 10%  
46 1.0% 9%  
47 2% 8%  
48 1.0% 7%  
49 0.4% 6%  
50 1.0% 5%  
51 2% 4%  
52 1.1% 2%  
53 0.3% 0.9%  
54 0.3% 0.6%  
55 0.1% 0.4%  
56 0% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 95% 100% Last Result, Median
2 3% 5%  
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 1.2% 97%  
2 12% 96%  
3 69% 84% Median
4 14% 15%  
5 0.7% 1.3%  
6 0.3% 0.7%  
7 0.1% 0.4%  
8 0% 0.2%  
9 0% 0.2%  
10 0% 0.2%  
11 0% 0.2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0.1% 99.8%  
16 0.3% 99.7%  
17 0.4% 99.4%  
18 0.9% 99.1%  
19 0.9% 98%  
20 0.5% 97%  
21 0.7% 97%  
22 0.7% 96%  
23 0.9% 95%  
24 0.9% 95%  
25 1.4% 94%  
26 2% 92%  
27 2% 91%  
28 0.6% 89%  
29 2% 88%  
30 1.1% 86%  
31 5% 85%  
32 4% 80%  
33 2% 76%  
34 7% 74%  
35 0.9% 67%  
36 6% 66%  
37 0.8% 60%  
38 11% 59% Median
39 3% 48%  
40 6% 45%  
41 16% 39%  
42 1.3% 23%  
43 5% 22%  
44 0.8% 17%  
45 2% 16%  
46 2% 14%  
47 0.5% 12%  
48 2% 12% Last Result
49 2% 9%  
50 1.4% 8%  
51 2% 6%  
52 2% 4%  
53 1.2% 3%  
54 0.7% 2%  
55 0.6% 1.0%  
56 0.3% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 261 453 100% 431–478 423–484 418–489 407–500
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 213 416 100% 391–442 384–448 377–454 366–467
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 250 416 100% 397–437 391–441 386–445 377–455
Labour Party 202 378 100% 358–401 351–407 346–411 336–421
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 413 207 0% 181–232 175–239 169–246 156–256
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 376 207 0% 186–225 182–232 178–236 168–246
Conservative Party 365 170 0% 145–192 139–200 134–205 123–215

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100% Last Result
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 99.9%  
399 0% 99.9%  
400 0% 99.9%  
401 0% 99.9%  
402 0% 99.8%  
403 0% 99.8%  
404 0.1% 99.7%  
405 0.1% 99.7%  
406 0.1% 99.6%  
407 0.1% 99.5%  
408 0.1% 99.5%  
409 0.1% 99.4%  
410 0.2% 99.3%  
411 0.1% 99.1%  
412 0.2% 99.0%  
413 0.2% 98.8%  
414 0.2% 98.6%  
415 0.2% 98%  
416 0.3% 98%  
417 0.3% 98%  
418 0.2% 98%  
419 0.4% 97%  
420 0.4% 97%  
421 0.4% 96%  
422 0.6% 96%  
423 0.6% 95%  
424 0.5% 95%  
425 0.6% 94%  
426 0.5% 94%  
427 0.6% 93%  
428 1.0% 93%  
429 0.8% 92%  
430 0.6% 91%  
431 0.9% 90%  
432 0.9% 89%  
433 0.9% 89%  
434 1.0% 88%  
435 1.0% 87%  
436 1.2% 86%  
437 1.4% 84%  
438 2% 83%  
439 1.1% 81%  
440 2% 80%  
441 2% 78%  
442 2% 77%  
443 2% 75%  
444 1.3% 73%  
445 2% 71%  
446 2% 70%  
447 3% 67%  
448 3% 64%  
449 2% 61%  
450 3% 59%  
451 2% 56%  
452 3% 54%  
453 2% 52%  
454 3% 49% Median
455 1.5% 46%  
456 2% 45%  
457 3% 43%  
458 2% 40%  
459 2% 38%  
460 2% 36%  
461 2% 35%  
462 2% 33%  
463 1.3% 31%  
464 2% 29%  
465 1.1% 27%  
466 2% 26%  
467 1.1% 25%  
468 0.9% 23%  
469 2% 23%  
470 1.5% 21%  
471 2% 19%  
472 1.1% 18%  
473 1.1% 17%  
474 2% 16%  
475 1.1% 14%  
476 1.1% 13%  
477 1.0% 12%  
478 0.8% 11%  
479 1.2% 10%  
480 0.8% 9%  
481 0.8% 8%  
482 0.8% 7%  
483 0.9% 6%  
484 0.8% 5%  
485 0.4% 4%  
486 0.4% 4%  
487 0.4% 4%  
488 0.5% 3%  
489 0.6% 3%  
490 0.2% 2%  
491 0.4% 2%  
492 0.2% 2%  
493 0.1% 1.4%  
494 0.2% 1.3%  
495 0.1% 1.1%  
496 0.1% 1.0%  
497 0.2% 0.9%  
498 0.1% 0.7%  
499 0.1% 0.6%  
500 0.1% 0.5%  
501 0.1% 0.5%  
502 0% 0.4%  
503 0% 0.4%  
504 0% 0.3%  
505 0% 0.3%  
506 0% 0.3%  
507 0% 0.2%  
508 0% 0.2%  
509 0% 0.2%  
510 0% 0.2%  
511 0% 0.1%  
512 0% 0.1%  
513 0% 0.1%  
514 0% 0.1%  
515 0% 0.1%  
516 0% 0.1%  
517 0% 0.1%  
518 0% 0.1%  
519 0% 0.1%  
520 0% 0.1%  
521 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
213 0% 100% Last Result
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0% 99.9%  
356 0% 99.9%  
357 0% 99.9%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.8%  
361 0% 99.8%  
362 0.1% 99.8%  
363 0.1% 99.7%  
364 0.1% 99.7%  
365 0.1% 99.6%  
366 0.1% 99.5%  
367 0.1% 99.4%  
368 0.1% 99.3%  
369 0.1% 99.2%  
370 0.1% 99.1%  
371 0.3% 99.0%  
372 0.1% 98.7%  
373 0.1% 98.6%  
374 0.3% 98%  
375 0.2% 98%  
376 0.3% 98%  
377 0.3% 98%  
378 0.3% 97%  
379 0.5% 97%  
380 0.3% 97%  
381 0.4% 96%  
382 0.4% 96%  
383 0.5% 95%  
384 0.6% 95%  
385 0.4% 94%  
386 0.6% 94%  
387 0.5% 93%  
388 0.7% 93%  
389 0.8% 92%  
390 0.8% 91%  
391 0.9% 91%  
392 1.1% 90%  
393 1.1% 89%  
394 0.7% 87%  
395 1.4% 87%  
396 0.7% 85%  
397 1.2% 85%  
398 1.2% 83%  
399 1.0% 82%  
400 2% 81%  
401 2% 80%  
402 1.1% 78%  
403 1.4% 77%  
404 2% 76%  
405 2% 74%  
406 2% 72%  
407 2% 70%  
408 2% 68%  
409 2% 66%  
410 3% 63%  
411 2% 61%  
412 2% 59%  
413 3% 56%  
414 2% 54%  
415 1.4% 52%  
416 2% 50% Median
417 2% 49%  
418 2% 46%  
419 2% 45%  
420 2% 43%  
421 2% 41%  
422 2% 39%  
423 2% 37%  
424 1.4% 35%  
425 2% 34%  
426 1.1% 32%  
427 2% 31%  
428 2% 29%  
429 2% 27%  
430 2% 26%  
431 1.4% 24%  
432 2% 23%  
433 1.4% 21%  
434 1.1% 20%  
435 1.1% 18%  
436 1.0% 17%  
437 1.0% 16%  
438 2% 15%  
439 0.7% 14%  
440 1.3% 13%  
441 1.0% 12%  
442 0.9% 11%  
443 0.8% 10%  
444 0.7% 9%  
445 1.1% 8%  
446 0.6% 7%  
447 0.7% 6%  
448 0.8% 6%  
449 0.5% 5%  
450 0.7% 4%  
451 0.4% 4%  
452 0.3% 3%  
453 0.5% 3%  
454 0.3% 3%  
455 0.4% 2%  
456 0.1% 2%  
457 0.2% 2%  
458 0.2% 2%  
459 0.2% 1.5%  
460 0.1% 1.3%  
461 0.1% 1.2%  
462 0.1% 1.0%  
463 0.1% 0.9%  
464 0.1% 0.8%  
465 0.1% 0.7%  
466 0.1% 0.6%  
467 0.1% 0.5%  
468 0% 0.5%  
469 0.1% 0.4%  
470 0.1% 0.4%  
471 0% 0.3%  
472 0% 0.3%  
473 0% 0.2%  
474 0% 0.2%  
475 0% 0.2%  
476 0% 0.2%  
477 0% 0.2%  
478 0% 0.1%  
479 0% 0.1%  
480 0% 0.1%  
481 0% 0.1%  
482 0% 0.1%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0.1%  
487 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100% Last Result
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0% 99.9%  
372 0% 99.9%  
373 0% 99.8%  
374 0.1% 99.8%  
375 0.1% 99.7%  
376 0.1% 99.6%  
377 0.1% 99.5%  
378 0.1% 99.4%  
379 0.1% 99.3%  
380 0.2% 99.2%  
381 0.1% 99.0%  
382 0.3% 98.9%  
383 0.2% 98.6%  
384 0.3% 98%  
385 0.3% 98%  
386 0.4% 98%  
387 0.3% 97%  
388 0.6% 97%  
389 0.7% 97%  
390 0.4% 96%  
391 0.6% 95%  
392 0.6% 95%  
393 0.8% 94%  
394 0.8% 93%  
395 0.7% 93%  
396 0.6% 92%  
397 1.4% 91%  
398 1.3% 90%  
399 0.9% 89%  
400 1.0% 88%  
401 1.2% 87%  
402 0.8% 85%  
403 1.0% 85%  
404 2% 84%  
405 1.0% 82%  
406 2% 81%  
407 2% 79%  
408 3% 76%  
409 3% 73%  
410 3% 70%  
411 3% 67%  
412 4% 64%  
413 3% 60%  
414 3% 57%  
415 3% 54%  
416 3% 51% Median
417 3% 47%  
418 3% 45%  
419 3% 42%  
420 3% 39%  
421 1.4% 37%  
422 2% 35%  
423 2% 33%  
424 2% 31%  
425 2% 29%  
426 1.3% 27%  
427 1.4% 26%  
428 1.1% 24%  
429 1.5% 23%  
430 2% 22%  
431 1.4% 20%  
432 2% 19%  
433 2% 17%  
434 1.3% 15%  
435 1.4% 13%  
436 1.3% 12%  
437 1.2% 11%  
438 2% 10%  
439 1.0% 8%  
440 0.8% 7%  
441 1.3% 6%  
442 1.0% 5%  
443 0.6% 4%  
444 0.5% 3%  
445 0.5% 3%  
446 0.4% 2%  
447 0.2% 2%  
448 0.3% 2%  
449 0.2% 1.3%  
450 0.2% 1.1%  
451 0.2% 1.0%  
452 0.1% 0.8%  
453 0.1% 0.7%  
454 0.1% 0.6%  
455 0.1% 0.5%  
456 0.1% 0.5%  
457 0.1% 0.4%  
458 0% 0.3%  
459 0% 0.3%  
460 0% 0.2%  
461 0% 0.2%  
462 0% 0.2%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 99.9%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0% 99.8%  
332 0.1% 99.8%  
333 0.1% 99.7%  
334 0.1% 99.7%  
335 0.1% 99.6%  
336 0.1% 99.5%  
337 0.1% 99.4%  
338 0.1% 99.3%  
339 0.2% 99.2%  
340 0.2% 99.0%  
341 0.2% 98.8%  
342 0.3% 98.6%  
343 0.2% 98%  
344 0.3% 98%  
345 0.3% 98%  
346 0.2% 98%  
347 0.4% 97%  
348 0.4% 97%  
349 0.4% 96%  
350 0.6% 96%  
351 0.6% 95%  
352 0.5% 95%  
353 0.7% 94%  
354 0.6% 94%  
355 0.6% 93%  
356 0.7% 92%  
357 0.9% 92%  
358 1.1% 91%  
359 1.2% 90%  
360 1.0% 88%  
361 1.5% 87%  
362 1.3% 86%  
363 1.4% 85%  
364 1.4% 83%  
365 1.2% 82%  
366 2% 81%  
367 2% 79%  
368 2% 77%  
369 2% 75%  
370 2% 73%  
371 3% 71%  
372 2% 68%  
373 3% 65%  
374 3% 63%  
375 3% 60%  
376 2% 57%  
377 2% 54%  
378 2% 52% Median
379 3% 50%  
380 2% 47%  
381 3% 45%  
382 2% 42%  
383 2% 41%  
384 2% 38%  
385 2% 36%  
386 2% 35%  
387 2% 33%  
388 2% 31%  
389 2% 29%  
390 2% 27%  
391 1.1% 25%  
392 2% 24%  
393 2% 22%  
394 1.2% 20%  
395 1.2% 19%  
396 2% 18%  
397 0.8% 16%  
398 1.4% 15%  
399 2% 14%  
400 1.2% 12%  
401 1.1% 11%  
402 1.0% 10%  
403 0.8% 9%  
404 1.2% 8%  
405 0.8% 7%  
406 0.9% 6%  
407 0.9% 5%  
408 0.6% 4%  
409 0.5% 4%  
410 0.4% 3%  
411 0.3% 3%  
412 0.4% 2%  
413 0.3% 2%  
414 0.2% 2%  
415 0.2% 1.4%  
416 0.1% 1.2%  
417 0.2% 1.1%  
418 0.1% 0.9%  
419 0.1% 0.8%  
420 0.1% 0.7%  
421 0.1% 0.6%  
422 0.1% 0.5%  
423 0.1% 0.4%  
424 0.1% 0.3%  
425 0% 0.3%  
426 0% 0.3%  
427 0% 0.2%  
428 0% 0.2%  
429 0% 0.2%  
430 0% 0.2%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.8%  
149 0% 99.8%  
150 0% 99.8%  
151 0% 99.7%  
152 0% 99.7%  
153 0% 99.7%  
154 0% 99.6%  
155 0.1% 99.6%  
156 0.1% 99.5%  
157 0.1% 99.5%  
158 0.1% 99.4%  
159 0.1% 99.3%  
160 0.1% 99.2%  
161 0.1% 99.1%  
162 0.1% 99.0%  
163 0.1% 98.9%  
164 0.2% 98.7%  
165 0.2% 98.6%  
166 0.2% 98%  
167 0.2% 98%  
168 0.4% 98%  
169 0.3% 98%  
170 0.5% 97%  
171 0.3% 97%  
172 0.4% 97%  
173 0.6% 96%  
174 0.5% 96%  
175 0.8% 95%  
176 0.7% 94%  
177 0.5% 94%  
178 1.1% 93%  
179 0.8% 92%  
180 0.8% 91%  
181 0.9% 90%  
182 1.2% 90%  
183 1.3% 88%  
184 0.7% 87%  
185 1.5% 86%  
186 1.0% 85%  
187 0.9% 84%  
188 1.3% 83%  
189 1.1% 82%  
190 1.3% 81%  
191 2% 79%  
192 1.4% 77%  
193 2% 76%  
194 2% 74%  
195 2% 73%  
196 2% 71%  
197 1.2% 69%  
198 2% 68%  
199 2% 66%  
200 2% 65%  
201 2% 63%  
202 2% 61%  
203 2% 59%  
204 2% 57%  
205 2% 55%  
206 2% 54%  
207 2% 52%  
208 2% 50% Median
209 1.5% 48%  
210 3% 46%  
211 3% 44%  
212 2% 41%  
213 3% 39%  
214 2% 36%  
215 2% 34%  
216 2% 32%  
217 2% 30%  
218 2% 28%  
219 2% 26%  
220 1.3% 24%  
221 1.1% 23%  
222 2% 22%  
223 2% 20%  
224 1.0% 19%  
225 1.3% 18%  
226 1.1% 16%  
227 0.8% 15%  
228 1.3% 14%  
229 0.7% 13%  
230 1.0% 12%  
231 1.1% 11%  
232 0.8% 10%  
233 0.9% 9%  
234 0.9% 9%  
235 0.7% 8%  
236 0.6% 7%  
237 0.7% 6%  
238 0.5% 6%  
239 0.4% 5%  
240 0.5% 5%  
241 0.5% 4%  
242 0.3% 4%  
243 0.4% 4%  
244 0.5% 3%  
245 0.2% 3%  
246 0.3% 3%  
247 0.2% 2%  
248 0.3% 2%  
249 0.2% 2%  
250 0.2% 2%  
251 0.2% 1.3%  
252 0.2% 1.2%  
253 0.1% 1.0%  
254 0.1% 0.8%  
255 0.1% 0.7%  
256 0.1% 0.6%  
257 0.1% 0.5%  
258 0.1% 0.4%  
259 0.1% 0.4%  
260 0.1% 0.3%  
261 0% 0.2%  
262 0% 0.2%  
263 0% 0.2%  
264 0% 0.1%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 99.9%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0% 99.9%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0% 99.8%  
163 0% 99.8%  
164 0% 99.8%  
165 0% 99.7%  
166 0.1% 99.7%  
167 0.1% 99.6%  
168 0.1% 99.5%  
169 0.1% 99.5%  
170 0.1% 99.4%  
171 0.1% 99.3%  
172 0.2% 99.2%  
173 0.2% 99.1%  
174 0.2% 98.9%  
175 0.3% 98.7%  
176 0.3% 98%  
177 0.3% 98%  
178 0.5% 98%  
179 0.4% 97%  
180 0.5% 97%  
181 0.9% 96%  
182 2% 95%  
183 0.7% 94%  
184 0.9% 93%  
185 2% 92%  
186 1.2% 91%  
187 2% 90%  
188 1.4% 88%  
189 1.2% 87%  
190 2% 85%  
191 2% 83%  
192 2% 82%  
193 2% 80%  
194 1.4% 78%  
195 1.0% 77%  
196 2% 76%  
197 2% 74%  
198 2% 72%  
199 2% 71%  
200 2% 69%  
201 2% 67%  
202 2% 65%  
203 3% 63%  
204 3% 60%  
205 3% 58%  
206 3% 55%  
207 3% 52%  
208 3% 49% Median
209 3% 46%  
210 3% 43%  
211 3% 39%  
212 3% 36%  
213 3% 33%  
214 4% 30%  
215 3% 26%  
216 2% 23%  
217 2% 21%  
218 1.4% 19%  
219 2% 18%  
220 0.8% 16%  
221 1.0% 15%  
222 1.1% 14%  
223 0.9% 13%  
224 1.0% 12%  
225 1.3% 11%  
226 1.4% 10%  
227 0.5% 9%  
228 0.8% 8%  
229 1.0% 7%  
230 0.6% 6%  
231 0.7% 6%  
232 0.6% 5%  
233 0.4% 4%  
234 0.7% 4%  
235 0.6% 3%  
236 0.3% 3%  
237 0.4% 2%  
238 0.4% 2%  
239 0.2% 2%  
240 0.2% 2%  
241 0.3% 1.3%  
242 0.2% 1.0%  
243 0.1% 0.9%  
244 0.1% 0.7%  
245 0.1% 0.6%  
246 0.1% 0.5%  
247 0.1% 0.4%  
248 0.1% 0.3%  
249 0.1% 0.2%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0% 99.9%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0% 99.8%  
115 0% 99.8%  
116 0% 99.8%  
117 0% 99.8%  
118 0% 99.7%  
119 0.1% 99.7%  
120 0% 99.7%  
121 0.1% 99.6%  
122 0.1% 99.6%  
123 0.1% 99.5%  
124 0.1% 99.5%  
125 0.1% 99.4%  
126 0.2% 99.3%  
127 0.1% 99.1%  
128 0.1% 99.0%  
129 0.1% 98.9%  
130 0.2% 98.7%  
131 0.2% 98.6%  
132 0.4% 98%  
133 0.3% 98%  
134 0.5% 98%  
135 0.5% 97%  
136 0.4% 97%  
137 0.3% 96%  
138 0.3% 96%  
139 0.7% 96%  
140 0.9% 95%  
141 0.9% 94%  
142 0.8% 93%  
143 0.9% 92%  
144 1.1% 91%  
145 0.8% 90%  
146 1.0% 90%  
147 1.1% 89%  
148 1.1% 87%  
149 2% 86%  
150 1.0% 84%  
151 1.0% 83%  
152 2% 82%  
153 1.4% 81%  
154 2% 79%  
155 1.1% 78%  
156 1.0% 76%  
157 2% 75%  
158 1.2% 74%  
159 2% 72%  
160 1.3% 71%  
161 2% 69%  
162 2% 67%  
163 1.3% 65%  
164 2% 64%  
165 2% 62%  
166 2% 60%  
167 3% 58%  
168 2% 55%  
169 3% 53%  
170 2% 51% Median
171 3% 48%  
172 2% 46%  
173 3% 43%  
174 2% 41%  
175 2% 38%  
176 4% 36%  
177 3% 33%  
178 1.4% 30%  
179 1.4% 28%  
180 2% 27%  
181 2% 25%  
182 2% 23%  
183 2% 21%  
184 1.2% 20%  
185 2% 19%  
186 1.4% 17%  
187 1.1% 15%  
188 1.1% 14%  
189 0.9% 13%  
190 0.9% 12%  
191 0.9% 11%  
192 0.9% 10%  
193 0.7% 10%  
194 0.8% 9%  
195 0.8% 8%  
196 0.6% 7%  
197 0.6% 7%  
198 0.5% 6%  
199 0.5% 6%  
200 0.6% 5%  
201 0.6% 4%  
202 0.4% 4%  
203 0.5% 3%  
204 0.3% 3%  
205 0.3% 3%  
206 0.3% 2%  
207 0.3% 2%  
208 0.2% 2%  
209 0.3% 2%  
210 0.2% 1.3%  
211 0.2% 1.1%  
212 0.2% 1.0%  
213 0.1% 0.8%  
214 0.1% 0.7%  
215 0.1% 0.6%  
216 0.1% 0.5%  
217 0.1% 0.4%  
218 0.1% 0.3%  
219 0.1% 0.3%  
220 0% 0.2%  
221 0% 0.2%  
222 0% 0.1%  
223 0% 0.1%  
224 0% 0.1%  
225 0% 0.1%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations