Opinion Poll by Kantar, 4 September 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 32.1% 44.5% 42.5–46.5% 41.9–47.1% 41.4–47.6% 40.5–48.5%
Conservative Party 43.6% 27.9% 26.1–29.8% 25.6–30.3% 25.2–30.8% 24.4–31.7%
Liberal Democrats 11.5% 13.4% 12.1–14.9% 11.8–15.3% 11.4–15.7% 10.8–16.4%
Scottish National Party 3.9% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.1–6.5% 4.0–6.7% 3.6–7.2%
Green Party 2.8% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Brexit Party 2.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.2–2.6% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 202 358 334–379 327–386 325–390 319–399
Conservative Party 365 173 148–200 139–207 132–211 121–219
Liberal Democrats 11 40 32–53 28–55 25–58 22–64
Scottish National Party 48 56 51–58 49–58 47–58 41–58
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0.1% 99.9%  
318 0.1% 99.8%  
319 0.3% 99.8%  
320 0.3% 99.5%  
321 0.2% 99.1%  
322 0.3% 98.9%  
323 0.3% 98.6%  
324 0.8% 98%  
325 1.0% 98%  
326 0.9% 97% Majority
327 0.7% 96%  
328 0.4% 95%  
329 0.7% 94%  
330 0.9% 94%  
331 1.1% 93%  
332 0.9% 92%  
333 1.0% 91%  
334 1.1% 90%  
335 1.3% 89%  
336 1.4% 88%  
337 1.0% 86%  
338 1.3% 85%  
339 1.4% 84%  
340 2% 82%  
341 2% 80%  
342 2% 78%  
343 1.1% 76%  
344 2% 75%  
345 1.3% 74%  
346 2% 72%  
347 2% 70%  
348 2% 69%  
349 2% 67%  
350 2% 65%  
351 2% 63%  
352 2% 61%  
353 2% 59%  
354 2% 57%  
355 1.2% 55%  
356 2% 54%  
357 2% 52%  
358 5% 50% Median
359 4% 45%  
360 2% 42%  
361 2% 39%  
362 3% 37%  
363 3% 35%  
364 3% 32%  
365 3% 29%  
366 1.0% 26%  
367 2% 25%  
368 2% 23%  
369 2% 21%  
370 1.1% 19%  
371 1.3% 17%  
372 1.1% 16%  
373 1.4% 15%  
374 1.0% 14%  
375 0.9% 13%  
376 0.6% 12%  
377 0.6% 11%  
378 0.4% 11%  
379 0.6% 10%  
380 0.8% 10%  
381 0.6% 9%  
382 1.1% 8%  
383 0.7% 7%  
384 0.5% 6%  
385 0.7% 6%  
386 0.9% 5%  
387 0.8% 4%  
388 0.5% 3%  
389 0.2% 3%  
390 0.4% 3%  
391 0.4% 2%  
392 0.3% 2%  
393 0.3% 2%  
394 0.1% 1.3%  
395 0.2% 1.2%  
396 0.1% 0.9%  
397 0.1% 0.8%  
398 0.1% 0.7%  
399 0.1% 0.6%  
400 0.1% 0.5%  
401 0.1% 0.4%  
402 0% 0.3%  
403 0% 0.3%  
404 0% 0.3%  
405 0% 0.2%  
406 0% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.2%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0% 99.9%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0% 99.8%  
114 0% 99.8%  
115 0% 99.8%  
116 0% 99.8%  
117 0% 99.7%  
118 0% 99.7%  
119 0.1% 99.7%  
120 0.1% 99.6%  
121 0% 99.5%  
122 0.1% 99.5%  
123 0.1% 99.4%  
124 0.1% 99.3%  
125 0.1% 99.2%  
126 0.2% 99.1%  
127 0.1% 98.9%  
128 0.2% 98.8%  
129 0.2% 98.6%  
130 0.2% 98%  
131 0.4% 98%  
132 0.3% 98%  
133 0.1% 97%  
134 0.5% 97%  
135 0.4% 97%  
136 0.4% 96%  
137 0.5% 96%  
138 0.4% 96%  
139 0.7% 95%  
140 0.5% 94%  
141 0.5% 94%  
142 0.6% 93%  
143 0.5% 93%  
144 0.5% 92%  
145 0.8% 92%  
146 0.4% 91%  
147 0.7% 91%  
148 0.6% 90%  
149 1.2% 89%  
150 0.9% 88%  
151 1.0% 87%  
152 0.8% 86%  
153 1.2% 86%  
154 1.1% 84%  
155 1.2% 83%  
156 0.9% 82%  
157 1.4% 81%  
158 2% 80%  
159 1.4% 78%  
160 1.3% 77%  
161 1.4% 75%  
162 2% 74%  
163 2% 72%  
164 2% 70%  
165 3% 68%  
166 2% 65%  
167 2% 64%  
168 3% 62%  
169 2% 59%  
170 2% 58%  
171 2% 56%  
172 3% 54%  
173 2% 52% Median
174 2% 50%  
175 2% 47%  
176 2% 46%  
177 2% 43%  
178 1.4% 41%  
179 1.4% 40%  
180 2% 38%  
181 1.2% 37%  
182 2% 35%  
183 1.1% 33%  
184 1.4% 32%  
185 2% 30%  
186 1.2% 28%  
187 1.0% 27%  
188 2% 26%  
189 2% 25%  
190 1.2% 23%  
191 2% 22%  
192 1.2% 20%  
193 1.1% 19%  
194 1.3% 18%  
195 1.3% 16%  
196 1.0% 15%  
197 1.1% 14%  
198 1.0% 13%  
199 0.9% 12%  
200 1.2% 11%  
201 0.9% 10%  
202 0.9% 9%  
203 0.6% 8%  
204 0.8% 7%  
205 0.7% 7%  
206 0.6% 6%  
207 0.8% 5%  
208 0.6% 4%  
209 0.6% 4%  
210 0.6% 3%  
211 0.3% 3%  
212 0.3% 2%  
213 0.5% 2%  
214 0.3% 2%  
215 0.2% 1.4%  
216 0.2% 1.2%  
217 0.1% 1.0%  
218 0.2% 0.9%  
219 0.2% 0.7%  
220 0.1% 0.5%  
221 0.1% 0.4%  
222 0.1% 0.3%  
223 0.1% 0.2%  
224 0.1% 0.2%  
225 0% 0.1%  
226 0% 0.1%  
227 0% 0.1%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100% Last Result
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.1% 99.9%  
21 0.2% 99.8%  
22 0.4% 99.6%  
23 0.8% 99.2%  
24 0.5% 98%  
25 0.4% 98%  
26 0.7% 97%  
27 1.3% 97%  
28 1.1% 95%  
29 2% 94%  
30 1.1% 92%  
31 1.2% 91%  
32 2% 90%  
33 3% 89%  
34 4% 86%  
35 5% 82%  
36 5% 77%  
37 6% 71%  
38 6% 65%  
39 7% 59%  
40 5% 52% Median
41 3% 47%  
42 5% 44%  
43 3% 40%  
44 2% 37%  
45 3% 35%  
46 2% 32%  
47 3% 29%  
48 3% 27%  
49 3% 23%  
50 4% 20%  
51 4% 16%  
52 2% 13%  
53 2% 10%  
54 3% 8%  
55 1.1% 6%  
56 0.8% 5%  
57 1.0% 4%  
58 0.4% 3%  
59 0.5% 2%  
60 0.2% 2%  
61 0.5% 2%  
62 0.3% 1.1%  
63 0.2% 0.7%  
64 0.2% 0.6%  
65 0.1% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0% 99.9%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.6% 99.8%  
42 0% 99.2%  
43 0.6% 99.2%  
44 0.1% 98.6%  
45 0.4% 98%  
46 0.2% 98%  
47 0.4% 98%  
48 2% 97% Last Result
49 2% 96%  
50 3% 94%  
51 3% 90%  
52 6% 88%  
53 5% 82%  
54 7% 76%  
55 11% 69%  
56 20% 58% Median
57 18% 38%  
58 20% 20%  
59 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 261 453 100% 426–478 419–487 414–494 406–505
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 250 412 100% 389–433 383–440 380–444 375–453
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 213 398 100% 369–424 363–433 358–440 349–452
Labour Party 202 358 97% 334–379 327–386 325–390 319–399
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 413 228 0% 202–256 193–262 186–268 174–276
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 376 214 0% 193–237 186–243 182–246 173–250
Conservative Party 365 173 0% 148–200 139–207 132–211 121–219

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100% Last Result
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 99.9%  
400 0% 99.9%  
401 0% 99.9%  
402 0.1% 99.9%  
403 0.1% 99.8%  
404 0.1% 99.7%  
405 0.1% 99.7%  
406 0.1% 99.6%  
407 0.2% 99.5%  
408 0.2% 99.3%  
409 0.1% 99.1%  
410 0.2% 98.9%  
411 0.2% 98.7%  
412 0.4% 98.5%  
413 0.5% 98%  
414 0.2% 98%  
415 0.3% 97%  
416 0.6% 97%  
417 0.6% 97%  
418 0.6% 96%  
419 0.8% 95%  
420 0.6% 95%  
421 0.6% 94%  
422 0.8% 93%  
423 0.7% 92%  
424 0.9% 92%  
425 0.8% 91%  
426 1.2% 90%  
427 0.9% 89%  
428 0.8% 88%  
429 1.1% 87%  
430 1.1% 86%  
431 1.3% 85%  
432 1.2% 84%  
433 1.1% 82%  
434 1.2% 81%  
435 2% 80%  
436 1.1% 78%  
437 1.5% 77%  
438 2% 75%  
439 1.1% 74%  
440 1.2% 73%  
441 2% 71%  
442 1.4% 70%  
443 1.1% 68%  
444 2% 67%  
445 1.2% 65%  
446 2% 63%  
447 1.4% 62%  
448 1.4% 60%  
449 2% 59%  
450 2% 57%  
451 2% 54%  
452 2% 53%  
453 2% 50%  
454 3% 48% Median
455 2% 46%  
456 1.5% 44%  
457 2% 42%  
458 3% 41%  
459 2% 38%  
460 2% 36%  
461 2% 35%  
462 2% 32%  
463 2% 30%  
464 2% 28%  
465 1.4% 26%  
466 1.3% 25%  
467 1.5% 23%  
468 2% 22%  
469 1.4% 20%  
470 0.9% 19%  
471 1.2% 18%  
472 1.1% 17%  
473 1.2% 16%  
474 0.8% 14%  
475 1.0% 14%  
476 0.9% 13%  
477 1.2% 12%  
478 0.6% 11%  
479 0.7% 10%  
480 0.5% 9%  
481 0.8% 9%  
482 0.5% 8%  
483 0.5% 8%  
484 0.6% 7%  
485 0.5% 7%  
486 0.5% 6%  
487 0.7% 6%  
488 0.4% 5%  
489 0.5% 4%  
490 0.4% 4%  
491 0.4% 4%  
492 0.5% 3%  
493 0.1% 3%  
494 0.3% 3%  
495 0.4% 2%  
496 0.2% 2%  
497 0.2% 2%  
498 0.2% 1.4%  
499 0.1% 1.2%  
500 0.2% 1.1%  
501 0.1% 0.9%  
502 0.1% 0.8%  
503 0.1% 0.7%  
504 0.1% 0.6%  
505 0% 0.5%  
506 0.1% 0.5%  
507 0.1% 0.4%  
508 0% 0.3%  
509 0% 0.3%  
510 0% 0.3%  
511 0% 0.2%  
512 0% 0.2%  
513 0% 0.2%  
514 0% 0.2%  
515 0% 0.1%  
516 0% 0.1%  
517 0% 0.1%  
518 0% 0.1%  
519 0% 0.1%  
520 0% 0.1%  
521 0% 0.1%  
522 0% 0.1%  
523 0% 0.1%  
524 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100% Last Result
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0% 99.9%  
372 0.1% 99.9%  
373 0.1% 99.8%  
374 0.1% 99.7%  
375 0.2% 99.5%  
376 0.3% 99.3%  
377 0.4% 99.0%  
378 0.5% 98.6%  
379 0.5% 98%  
380 0.7% 98%  
381 0.6% 97%  
382 1.0% 96%  
383 0.9% 95%  
384 0.7% 94%  
385 0.9% 94%  
386 0.7% 93%  
387 1.1% 92%  
388 1.0% 91%  
389 1.0% 90%  
390 1.1% 89%  
391 2% 88%  
392 1.4% 87%  
393 2% 85%  
394 1.4% 84%  
395 1.5% 82%  
396 2% 81%  
397 2% 79%  
398 2% 77%  
399 2% 75%  
400 2% 74%  
401 1.3% 72%  
402 2% 71%  
403 2% 68%  
404 2% 67%  
405 2% 65%  
406 2% 63%  
407 2% 61%  
408 2% 59%  
409 2% 58%  
410 2% 55%  
411 3% 53%  
412 2% 51%  
413 2% 49%  
414 3% 47% Median
415 3% 43%  
416 4% 41%  
417 3% 37%  
418 2% 34%  
419 3% 32%  
420 2% 29%  
421 2% 27%  
422 3% 25%  
423 1.0% 22%  
424 2% 21%  
425 1.4% 19%  
426 1.3% 17%  
427 1.2% 16%  
428 0.9% 15%  
429 1.2% 14%  
430 0.7% 12%  
431 0.9% 12%  
432 0.5% 11%  
433 0.9% 10%  
434 0.5% 9%  
435 0.7% 9%  
436 0.5% 8%  
437 0.9% 8%  
438 0.7% 7%  
439 0.9% 6%  
440 0.5% 5%  
441 0.7% 5%  
442 0.5% 4%  
443 0.6% 3%  
444 0.5% 3%  
445 0.4% 2%  
446 0.3% 2%  
447 0.3% 2%  
448 0.2% 1.3%  
449 0.3% 1.1%  
450 0.1% 0.9%  
451 0.1% 0.8%  
452 0.1% 0.6%  
453 0.1% 0.5%  
454 0.1% 0.4%  
455 0% 0.4%  
456 0.1% 0.3%  
457 0% 0.3%  
458 0% 0.2%  
459 0% 0.2%  
460 0% 0.2%  
461 0% 0.2%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
213 0% 100% Last Result
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0.1% 99.8%  
347 0.1% 99.8%  
348 0.1% 99.7%  
349 0.1% 99.6%  
350 0.1% 99.5%  
351 0.1% 99.3%  
352 0.2% 99.2%  
353 0.1% 99.0%  
354 0.2% 98.9%  
355 0.3% 98.7%  
356 0.4% 98%  
357 0.3% 98%  
358 0.4% 98%  
359 0.5% 97%  
360 0.5% 97%  
361 0.5% 96%  
362 0.4% 96%  
363 0.6% 95%  
364 0.7% 95%  
365 0.8% 94%  
366 0.6% 93%  
367 1.0% 93%  
368 0.9% 92%  
369 0.9% 91%  
370 0.8% 90%  
371 1.1% 89%  
372 0.8% 88%  
373 1.0% 87%  
374 1.1% 86%  
375 0.8% 85%  
376 1.2% 84%  
377 2% 83%  
378 1.0% 81%  
379 1.5% 80%  
380 2% 79%  
381 1.1% 77%  
382 1.4% 76%  
383 1.3% 75%  
384 0.8% 74%  
385 2% 73%  
386 1.2% 70%  
387 2% 69%  
388 1.5% 67%  
389 1.2% 66%  
390 1.3% 65%  
391 2% 63%  
392 2% 62%  
393 2% 60%  
394 2% 57%  
395 2% 56%  
396 1.2% 54%  
397 2% 52%  
398 2% 50% Median
399 2% 48%  
400 2% 46%  
401 3% 44%  
402 2% 42%  
403 2% 40%  
404 2% 38%  
405 2% 36%  
406 2% 34%  
407 2% 33%  
408 2% 31%  
409 2% 29%  
410 2% 27%  
411 2% 26%  
412 0.9% 24%  
413 2% 23%  
414 1.4% 21%  
415 0.9% 20%  
416 1.2% 19%  
417 1.5% 18%  
418 0.8% 16%  
419 0.8% 15%  
420 0.5% 14%  
421 1.2% 14%  
422 1.3% 13%  
423 0.7% 11%  
424 0.8% 11%  
425 0.5% 10%  
426 0.7% 9%  
427 0.4% 9%  
428 0.4% 8%  
429 0.6% 8%  
430 0.5% 7%  
431 0.6% 7%  
432 0.5% 6%  
433 0.6% 5%  
434 0.6% 5%  
435 0.4% 4%  
436 0.5% 4%  
437 0.3% 3%  
438 0.2% 3%  
439 0.3% 3%  
440 0.2% 3%  
441 0.2% 2%  
442 0.3% 2%  
443 0.2% 2%  
444 0.2% 2%  
445 0.1% 1.4%  
446 0.2% 1.3%  
447 0.1% 1.1%  
448 0.1% 0.9%  
449 0.1% 0.8%  
450 0.1% 0.7%  
451 0.1% 0.6%  
452 0.1% 0.5%  
453 0% 0.5%  
454 0.1% 0.4%  
455 0% 0.4%  
456 0% 0.3%  
457 0% 0.3%  
458 0% 0.3%  
459 0% 0.2%  
460 0% 0.2%  
461 0% 0.2%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0.1% 99.9%  
318 0.1% 99.8%  
319 0.3% 99.8%  
320 0.3% 99.5%  
321 0.2% 99.1%  
322 0.3% 98.9%  
323 0.3% 98.6%  
324 0.8% 98%  
325 1.0% 98%  
326 0.9% 97% Majority
327 0.7% 96%  
328 0.4% 95%  
329 0.7% 94%  
330 0.9% 94%  
331 1.1% 93%  
332 0.9% 92%  
333 1.0% 91%  
334 1.1% 90%  
335 1.3% 89%  
336 1.4% 88%  
337 1.0% 86%  
338 1.3% 85%  
339 1.4% 84%  
340 2% 82%  
341 2% 80%  
342 2% 78%  
343 1.1% 76%  
344 2% 75%  
345 1.3% 74%  
346 2% 72%  
347 2% 70%  
348 2% 69%  
349 2% 67%  
350 2% 65%  
351 2% 63%  
352 2% 61%  
353 2% 59%  
354 2% 57%  
355 1.2% 55%  
356 2% 54%  
357 2% 52%  
358 5% 50% Median
359 4% 45%  
360 2% 42%  
361 2% 39%  
362 3% 37%  
363 3% 35%  
364 3% 32%  
365 3% 29%  
366 1.0% 26%  
367 2% 25%  
368 2% 23%  
369 2% 21%  
370 1.1% 19%  
371 1.3% 17%  
372 1.1% 16%  
373 1.4% 15%  
374 1.0% 14%  
375 0.9% 13%  
376 0.6% 12%  
377 0.6% 11%  
378 0.4% 11%  
379 0.6% 10%  
380 0.8% 10%  
381 0.6% 9%  
382 1.1% 8%  
383 0.7% 7%  
384 0.5% 6%  
385 0.7% 6%  
386 0.9% 5%  
387 0.8% 4%  
388 0.5% 3%  
389 0.2% 3%  
390 0.4% 3%  
391 0.4% 2%  
392 0.3% 2%  
393 0.3% 2%  
394 0.1% 1.3%  
395 0.2% 1.2%  
396 0.1% 0.9%  
397 0.1% 0.8%  
398 0.1% 0.7%  
399 0.1% 0.6%  
400 0.1% 0.5%  
401 0.1% 0.4%  
402 0% 0.3%  
403 0% 0.3%  
404 0% 0.3%  
405 0% 0.2%  
406 0% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.2%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0% 99.9%  
163 0% 99.9%  
164 0% 99.9%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0% 99.8%  
167 0% 99.8%  
168 0% 99.8%  
169 0% 99.7%  
170 0% 99.7%  
171 0% 99.7%  
172 0.1% 99.6%  
173 0% 99.6%  
174 0.1% 99.5%  
175 0.1% 99.5%  
176 0.1% 99.4%  
177 0.1% 99.3%  
178 0.1% 99.2%  
179 0.1% 99.1%  
180 0.2% 98.9%  
181 0.1% 98.7%  
182 0.2% 98.6%  
183 0.2% 98%  
184 0.3% 98%  
185 0.2% 98%  
186 0.2% 98%  
187 0.3% 97%  
188 0.2% 97%  
189 0.3% 97%  
190 0.5% 97%  
191 0.4% 96%  
192 0.6% 96%  
193 0.6% 95%  
194 0.5% 95%  
195 0.6% 94%  
196 0.5% 93%  
197 0.6% 93%  
198 0.4% 92%  
199 0.4% 92%  
200 0.7% 91%  
201 0.5% 91%  
202 0.8% 90%  
203 0.7% 89%  
204 1.3% 89%  
205 1.2% 87%  
206 0.5% 86%  
207 0.8% 86%  
208 0.8% 85%  
209 1.5% 84%  
210 1.2% 82%  
211 0.9% 81%  
212 1.4% 80%  
213 2% 79%  
214 1.0% 77%  
215 2% 76%  
216 2% 74%  
217 2% 73%  
218 2% 71%  
219 2% 69%  
220 2% 67%  
221 2% 66%  
222 2% 64%  
223 2% 62%  
224 2% 60%  
225 3% 58%  
226 2% 56%  
227 2% 54%  
228 2% 52%  
229 2% 50% Median
230 1.2% 48%  
231 2% 46%  
232 2% 44%  
233 2% 43%  
234 2% 40%  
235 2% 38%  
236 1.3% 37%  
237 1.2% 35%  
238 1.4% 34%  
239 2% 32%  
240 1.2% 31%  
241 2% 30%  
242 0.9% 27%  
243 1.2% 26%  
244 1.5% 25%  
245 1.1% 24%  
246 2% 22%  
247 1.4% 21%  
248 1.0% 19%  
249 2% 18%  
250 1.1% 17%  
251 1.0% 16%  
252 1.0% 15%  
253 1.0% 14%  
254 0.9% 13%  
255 1.0% 12%  
256 0.9% 11%  
257 0.9% 10%  
258 0.8% 9%  
259 1.0% 8%  
260 0.7% 7%  
261 0.7% 6%  
262 0.7% 6%  
263 0.6% 5%  
264 0.4% 4%  
265 0.5% 4%  
266 0.5% 3%  
267 0.4% 3%  
268 0.5% 3%  
269 0.3% 2%  
270 0.3% 2%  
271 0.3% 2%  
272 0.2% 1.3%  
273 0.1% 1.1%  
274 0.2% 0.9%  
275 0.1% 0.8%  
276 0.1% 0.6%  
277 0.1% 0.5%  
278 0.1% 0.4%  
279 0% 0.3%  
280 0.1% 0.2%  
281 0.1% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
157 0% 100%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0% 99.9%  
163 0% 99.9%  
164 0% 99.9%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0% 99.8%  
167 0% 99.8%  
168 0% 99.8%  
169 0% 99.8%  
170 0.1% 99.7%  
171 0% 99.7%  
172 0.1% 99.6%  
173 0.1% 99.6%  
174 0.1% 99.5%  
175 0.1% 99.4%  
176 0.1% 99.2%  
177 0.3% 99.1%  
178 0.2% 98.9%  
179 0.3% 98.6%  
180 0.3% 98%  
181 0.4% 98%  
182 0.5% 98%  
183 0.6% 97%  
184 0.5% 97%  
185 0.7% 96%  
186 0.5% 95%  
187 0.9% 95%  
188 0.7% 94%  
189 0.9% 93%  
190 0.5% 92%  
191 0.7% 92%  
192 0.5% 91%  
193 0.9% 91%  
194 0.5% 90%  
195 0.9% 89%  
196 0.7% 88%  
197 1.2% 88%  
198 0.9% 86%  
199 1.2% 85%  
200 1.3% 84%  
201 1.4% 83%  
202 2% 81%  
203 1.0% 79%  
204 3% 78%  
205 2% 75%  
206 2% 73%  
207 3% 71%  
208 2% 68%  
209 3% 66%  
210 4% 63%  
211 3% 59%  
212 3% 57%  
213 2% 53% Median
214 2% 51%  
215 3% 49%  
216 2% 47%  
217 2% 45%  
218 2% 42%  
219 2% 41%  
220 2% 39%  
221 2% 37%  
222 2% 35%  
223 2% 33%  
224 2% 31%  
225 1.3% 29%  
226 2% 28%  
227 2% 26%  
228 2% 25%  
229 2% 23%  
230 2% 21%  
231 2% 19%  
232 1.3% 17%  
233 2% 16%  
234 1.3% 15%  
235 2% 13%  
236 1.1% 12%  
237 1.0% 11%  
238 1.1% 10%  
239 1.1% 9%  
240 0.7% 8%  
241 0.8% 7%  
242 0.7% 6%  
243 1.2% 5%  
244 0.8% 4%  
245 0.7% 3%  
246 0.4% 3%  
247 0.6% 2%  
248 0.5% 2%  
249 0.3% 1.1%  
250 0.2% 0.7%  
251 0.1% 0.5%  
252 0.1% 0.4%  
253 0.1% 0.2%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0% 99.9%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0% 99.8%  
114 0% 99.8%  
115 0% 99.8%  
116 0% 99.8%  
117 0% 99.7%  
118 0% 99.7%  
119 0.1% 99.7%  
120 0.1% 99.6%  
121 0% 99.5%  
122 0.1% 99.5%  
123 0.1% 99.4%  
124 0.1% 99.3%  
125 0.1% 99.2%  
126 0.2% 99.1%  
127 0.1% 98.9%  
128 0.2% 98.8%  
129 0.2% 98.6%  
130 0.2% 98%  
131 0.4% 98%  
132 0.3% 98%  
133 0.1% 97%  
134 0.5% 97%  
135 0.4% 97%  
136 0.4% 96%  
137 0.5% 96%  
138 0.4% 96%  
139 0.7% 95%  
140 0.5% 94%  
141 0.5% 94%  
142 0.6% 93%  
143 0.5% 93%  
144 0.5% 92%  
145 0.8% 92%  
146 0.4% 91%  
147 0.7% 91%  
148 0.6% 90%  
149 1.2% 89%  
150 0.9% 88%  
151 1.0% 87%  
152 0.8% 86%  
153 1.2% 86%  
154 1.1% 84%  
155 1.2% 83%  
156 0.9% 82%  
157 1.4% 81%  
158 2% 80%  
159 1.4% 78%  
160 1.3% 77%  
161 1.4% 75%  
162 2% 74%  
163 2% 72%  
164 2% 70%  
165 3% 68%  
166 2% 65%  
167 2% 64%  
168 3% 62%  
169 2% 59%  
170 2% 58%  
171 2% 56%  
172 3% 54%  
173 2% 52% Median
174 2% 50%  
175 2% 47%  
176 2% 46%  
177 2% 43%  
178 1.4% 41%  
179 1.4% 40%  
180 2% 38%  
181 1.2% 37%  
182 2% 35%  
183 1.1% 33%  
184 1.4% 32%  
185 2% 30%  
186 1.2% 28%  
187 1.0% 27%  
188 2% 26%  
189 2% 25%  
190 1.2% 23%  
191 2% 22%  
192 1.2% 20%  
193 1.1% 19%  
194 1.3% 18%  
195 1.3% 16%  
196 1.0% 15%  
197 1.1% 14%  
198 1.0% 13%  
199 0.9% 12%  
200 1.2% 11%  
201 0.9% 10%  
202 0.9% 9%  
203 0.6% 8%  
204 0.8% 7%  
205 0.7% 7%  
206 0.6% 6%  
207 0.8% 5%  
208 0.6% 4%  
209 0.6% 4%  
210 0.6% 3%  
211 0.3% 3%  
212 0.3% 2%  
213 0.5% 2%  
214 0.3% 2%  
215 0.2% 1.4%  
216 0.2% 1.2%  
217 0.1% 1.0%  
218 0.2% 0.9%  
219 0.2% 0.7%  
220 0.1% 0.5%  
221 0.1% 0.4%  
222 0.1% 0.3%  
223 0.1% 0.2%  
224 0.1% 0.2%  
225 0% 0.1%  
226 0% 0.1%  
227 0% 0.1%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations