Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 7–8 November 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 32.1% 50.1% 48.6–51.5% 48.2–51.9% 47.8–52.3% 47.1–53.0%
Conservative Party 43.6% 24.5% 23.2–25.7% 22.9–26.1% 22.6–26.4% 22.0–27.1%
Liberal Democrats 11.5% 10.6% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.9% 9.3–12.1% 9.0–12.6%
Green Party 2.8% 5.8% 5.2–6.6% 5.0–6.8% 4.9–7.0% 4.6–7.3%
Brexit Party 2.0% 3.7% 3.2–4.3% 3.0–4.5% 2.9–4.6% 2.7–4.9%
Scottish National Party 3.9% 3.2% 2.7–3.7% 2.6–3.9% 2.5–4.1% 2.3–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 202 430 411–458 407–463 403–467 394–478
Conservative Party 365 126 94–146 89–151 83–156 73–165
Liberal Democrats 11 36 27–41 25–45 24–48 22–51
Green Party 1 1 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–3
Brexit Party 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–3 0–3
Scottish National Party 48 34 25–42 22–44 21–46 18–51

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 99.9%  
385 0% 99.9%  
386 0% 99.9%  
387 0% 99.9%  
388 0% 99.9%  
389 0% 99.8%  
390 0% 99.8%  
391 0% 99.8%  
392 0.1% 99.7%  
393 0.1% 99.6%  
394 0.1% 99.6%  
395 0.1% 99.4%  
396 0.1% 99.3%  
397 0.2% 99.2%  
398 0.2% 99.0%  
399 0.3% 98.9%  
400 0.2% 98.6%  
401 0.3% 98%  
402 0.3% 98%  
403 0.5% 98%  
404 0.6% 97%  
405 0.7% 97%  
406 0.7% 96%  
407 0.8% 95%  
408 0.9% 94%  
409 1.2% 94%  
410 1.0% 92%  
411 2% 91%  
412 1.1% 90%  
413 2% 88%  
414 2% 86%  
415 2% 85%  
416 2% 83%  
417 2% 81%  
418 2% 79%  
419 2% 76%  
420 2% 75%  
421 3% 73%  
422 3% 70%  
423 2% 67%  
424 3% 65%  
425 1.4% 62%  
426 3% 61%  
427 2% 58%  
428 2% 55%  
429 2% 53%  
430 2% 51% Median
431 2% 49%  
432 1.5% 46%  
433 2% 45%  
434 1.1% 43%  
435 1.1% 42%  
436 1.3% 41%  
437 2% 40%  
438 1.1% 38%  
439 2% 37%  
440 0.8% 35%  
441 1.1% 34%  
442 1.3% 33%  
443 1.4% 32%  
444 1.5% 31%  
445 2% 29%  
446 1.0% 27%  
447 1.2% 26%  
448 2% 25%  
449 2% 23%  
450 1.3% 22%  
451 2% 21%  
452 2% 19%  
453 1.3% 17%  
454 1.4% 16%  
455 0.7% 14%  
456 1.3% 14%  
457 1.4% 12%  
458 1.3% 11%  
459 1.2% 9%  
460 1.1% 8%  
461 1.2% 7%  
462 0.5% 6%  
463 0.5% 5%  
464 0.5% 5%  
465 0.5% 4%  
466 0.7% 4%  
467 0.7% 3%  
468 0.4% 2%  
469 0.4% 2%  
470 0.4% 2%  
471 0.2% 1.3%  
472 0.1% 1.1%  
473 0.1% 1.0%  
474 0.1% 0.9%  
475 0.1% 0.8%  
476 0.1% 0.7%  
477 0.1% 0.6%  
478 0.1% 0.5%  
479 0.1% 0.4%  
480 0.1% 0.3%  
481 0.1% 0.3%  
482 0% 0.2%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0.1%  
487 0% 0.1%  
488 0% 0.1%  
489 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 99.9%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0% 99.8%  
69 0.1% 99.8%  
70 0% 99.7%  
71 0.1% 99.7%  
72 0.1% 99.6%  
73 0.1% 99.5%  
74 0.1% 99.5%  
75 0% 99.4%  
76 0.1% 99.3%  
77 0.1% 99.2%  
78 0.3% 99.1%  
79 0.2% 98.9%  
80 0.2% 98.7%  
81 0.2% 98%  
82 0.2% 98%  
83 0.7% 98%  
84 0.4% 97%  
85 0.2% 97%  
86 0.3% 97%  
87 0.6% 96%  
88 0.3% 96%  
89 0.7% 96%  
90 0.7% 95%  
91 1.2% 94%  
92 1.2% 93%  
93 1.0% 92%  
94 0.8% 91%  
95 0.7% 90%  
96 1.4% 89%  
97 0.9% 88%  
98 1.0% 87%  
99 1.3% 86%  
100 1.2% 84%  
101 1.3% 83%  
102 1.4% 82%  
103 1.2% 80%  
104 1.4% 79%  
105 1.1% 78%  
106 1.2% 77%  
107 1.1% 75%  
108 1.4% 74%  
109 1.2% 73%  
110 2% 72%  
111 1.4% 70%  
112 1.0% 68%  
113 0.9% 67%  
114 1.1% 67%  
115 1.2% 65%  
116 0.8% 64%  
117 0.8% 63%  
118 0.6% 63%  
119 1.2% 62%  
120 1.4% 61%  
121 2% 60%  
122 2% 58%  
123 1.0% 56%  
124 1.5% 55%  
125 2% 53%  
126 2% 51% Median
127 2% 49%  
128 2% 47%  
129 3% 46%  
130 2% 43%  
131 2% 41%  
132 3% 40%  
133 3% 37%  
134 2% 35%  
135 2% 32%  
136 2% 30%  
137 2% 28%  
138 3% 26%  
139 2% 23%  
140 2% 21%  
141 1.2% 19%  
142 2% 17%  
143 1.4% 16%  
144 2% 14%  
145 2% 13%  
146 2% 11%  
147 1.3% 9%  
148 1.0% 8%  
149 0.9% 7%  
150 0.8% 6%  
151 0.9% 5%  
152 0.5% 5%  
153 0.6% 4%  
154 0.4% 3%  
155 0.4% 3%  
156 0.4% 3%  
157 0.3% 2%  
158 0.3% 2%  
159 0.3% 2%  
160 0.2% 1.4%  
161 0.1% 1.1%  
162 0.1% 1.0%  
163 0.1% 0.8%  
164 0.2% 0.7%  
165 0.1% 0.6%  
166 0.1% 0.5%  
167 0.1% 0.4%  
168 0% 0.3%  
169 0.1% 0.3%  
170 0% 0.2%  
171 0% 0.2%  
172 0.1% 0.2%  
173 0% 0.1%  
174 0% 0.1%  
175 0% 0.1%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100% Last Result
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 0.2% 99.7%  
22 0.5% 99.5%  
23 1.1% 99.0%  
24 2% 98%  
25 1.4% 96%  
26 3% 95%  
27 4% 92%  
28 2% 89%  
29 3% 86%  
30 5% 83%  
31 6% 79%  
32 5% 73%  
33 4% 68%  
34 2% 64%  
35 6% 62%  
36 7% 55% Median
37 11% 48%  
38 8% 36%  
39 8% 28%  
40 6% 20%  
41 4% 14%  
42 2% 10%  
43 2% 7%  
44 0.5% 6%  
45 0.9% 5%  
46 1.1% 4%  
47 0.6% 3%  
48 0.3% 3%  
49 0.6% 2%  
50 1.2% 2%  
51 0.5% 0.6%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 52% 100% Last Result, Median
2 40% 48%  
3 9% 9%  
4 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 76% 100% Last Result, Median
1 5% 24%  
2 15% 19%  
3 4% 4%  
4 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.2% 99.9%  
18 0.3% 99.7%  
19 0.2% 99.3%  
20 0.3% 99.1%  
21 2% 98.8%  
22 2% 97%  
23 2% 95%  
24 1.0% 92%  
25 4% 91%  
26 2% 87%  
27 3% 85%  
28 1.0% 82%  
29 6% 81%  
30 3% 75%  
31 0.2% 72%  
32 8% 72%  
33 0.5% 63%  
34 21% 63% Median
35 2% 42%  
36 10% 41%  
37 2% 31%  
38 8% 28%  
39 3% 20%  
40 3% 17%  
41 3% 14%  
42 2% 11%  
43 3% 9%  
44 3% 6%  
45 0.7% 3%  
46 0.9% 3%  
47 0.4% 2%  
48 0.4% 1.3% Last Result
49 0.2% 1.0%  
50 0.1% 0.8%  
51 0.2% 0.7%  
52 0.2% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 261 498 100% 479–530 474–534 469–539 460–550
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 213 465 100% 444–497 437–504 432–508 421–519
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 250 463 100% 447–491 443–494 440–498 431–508
Labour Party 202 430 100% 411–458 407–463 403–467 394–478
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 413 160 0% 127–182 120–187 115–193 104–204
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 376 161 0% 133–178 129–182 125–185 115–193
Conservative Party 365 126 0% 94–146 89–151 83–156 73–165

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100% Last Result
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 100%  
438 0% 100%  
439 0% 100%  
440 0% 100%  
441 0% 100%  
442 0% 100%  
443 0% 100%  
444 0% 100%  
445 0% 100%  
446 0% 100%  
447 0% 100%  
448 0% 100%  
449 0% 100%  
450 0% 99.9%  
451 0% 99.9%  
452 0% 99.9%  
453 0% 99.9%  
454 0% 99.9%  
455 0% 99.8%  
456 0% 99.8%  
457 0.1% 99.7%  
458 0.1% 99.7%  
459 0.1% 99.6%  
460 0.1% 99.5%  
461 0.1% 99.4%  
462 0.2% 99.3%  
463 0.2% 99.1%  
464 0.2% 99.0%  
465 0.2% 98.8%  
466 0.3% 98.5%  
467 0.4% 98%  
468 0.4% 98%  
469 0.3% 98%  
470 0.5% 97%  
471 0.5% 97%  
472 0.5% 96%  
473 0.6% 96%  
474 0.6% 95%  
475 0.9% 95%  
476 0.7% 94%  
477 0.7% 93%  
478 1.1% 92%  
479 1.3% 91%  
480 2% 90%  
481 2% 88%  
482 2% 87%  
483 1.2% 85%  
484 2% 83%  
485 2% 82%  
486 2% 80%  
487 3% 78%  
488 3% 75%  
489 3% 73%  
490 2% 70%  
491 3% 68%  
492 3% 65%  
493 3% 62%  
494 2% 60%  
495 1.4% 58%  
496 2% 56%  
497 2% 54%  
498 2% 52%  
499 2% 49%  
500 2% 47% Median
501 1.0% 46%  
502 2% 45%  
503 2% 43%  
504 2% 41%  
505 1.3% 40%  
506 0.8% 39%  
507 0.7% 38%  
508 0.8% 37%  
509 1.0% 36%  
510 1.0% 35%  
511 1.1% 34%  
512 0.9% 33%  
513 0.9% 32%  
514 1.4% 31%  
515 1.2% 30%  
516 2% 29%  
517 1.1% 27%  
518 1.5% 26%  
519 1.0% 24%  
520 1.2% 23%  
521 1.2% 22%  
522 1.4% 21%  
523 1.2% 20%  
524 2% 18%  
525 2% 16%  
526 1.1% 15%  
527 1.0% 14%  
528 1.2% 13%  
529 2% 12%  
530 1.0% 10%  
531 1.3% 9%  
532 2% 8%  
533 1.1% 6%  
534 0.5% 5%  
535 0.4% 4%  
536 0.5% 4%  
537 0.4% 4%  
538 0.3% 3%  
539 0.5% 3%  
540 0.5% 2%  
541 0.2% 2%  
542 0.3% 2%  
543 0.2% 1.5%  
544 0.2% 1.3%  
545 0.2% 1.1%  
546 0.1% 0.8%  
547 0.1% 0.8%  
548 0% 0.7%  
549 0.1% 0.6%  
550 0.1% 0.5%  
551 0.1% 0.4%  
552 0.1% 0.4%  
553 0.1% 0.3%  
554 0% 0.3%  
555 0% 0.2%  
556 0% 0.2%  
557 0% 0.2%  
558 0% 0.1%  
559 0% 0.1%  
560 0% 0.1%  
561 0% 0.1%  
562 0% 0.1%  
563 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
213 0% 100% Last Result
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 99.9%  
412 0% 99.9%  
413 0% 99.9%  
414 0% 99.9%  
415 0% 99.9%  
416 0% 99.8%  
417 0% 99.8%  
418 0.1% 99.8%  
419 0.1% 99.7%  
420 0.1% 99.6%  
421 0.1% 99.6%  
422 0.1% 99.5%  
423 0.1% 99.4%  
424 0.1% 99.3%  
425 0.2% 99.2%  
426 0.2% 99.0%  
427 0.2% 98.8%  
428 0.2% 98.6%  
429 0.2% 98%  
430 0.3% 98%  
431 0.4% 98%  
432 0.2% 98%  
433 0.4% 97%  
434 0.4% 97%  
435 0.4% 96%  
436 0.4% 96%  
437 0.8% 96%  
438 0.5% 95%  
439 0.6% 94%  
440 0.7% 94%  
441 0.8% 93%  
442 1.0% 92%  
443 0.9% 91%  
444 2% 90%  
445 1.0% 88%  
446 1.1% 87%  
447 1.2% 86%  
448 1.2% 85%  
449 2% 84%  
450 1.0% 82%  
451 3% 81%  
452 2% 78%  
453 2% 76%  
454 3% 74%  
455 2% 71%  
456 3% 70%  
457 2% 67%  
458 2% 65%  
459 2% 63%  
460 3% 61%  
461 2% 58%  
462 2% 57%  
463 2% 55%  
464 2% 53%  
465 2% 50%  
466 2% 48% Median
467 1.4% 47%  
468 2% 45%  
469 2% 43%  
470 1.1% 42%  
471 1.5% 41%  
472 0.7% 39%  
473 1.2% 39%  
474 0.9% 37%  
475 2% 37%  
476 1.1% 35%  
477 0.7% 34%  
478 0.9% 33%  
479 1.1% 32%  
480 1.2% 31%  
481 0.7% 30%  
482 1.4% 29%  
483 1.1% 28%  
484 1.5% 27%  
485 1.1% 25%  
486 1.0% 24%  
487 1.1% 23%  
488 1.2% 22%  
489 1.2% 21%  
490 2% 20%  
491 2% 18%  
492 1.1% 16%  
493 0.8% 15%  
494 1.3% 14%  
495 0.9% 13%  
496 1.1% 12%  
497 1.4% 11%  
498 0.9% 10%  
499 1.0% 9%  
500 0.9% 8%  
501 0.8% 7%  
502 0.5% 6%  
503 0.5% 6%  
504 0.8% 5%  
505 0.6% 4%  
506 0.7% 4%  
507 0.4% 3%  
508 0.4% 3%  
509 0.4% 2%  
510 0.2% 2%  
511 0.3% 2%  
512 0.1% 1.3%  
513 0.1% 1.2%  
514 0.1% 1.1%  
515 0.1% 0.9%  
516 0.1% 0.8%  
517 0.1% 0.7%  
518 0.1% 0.6%  
519 0.1% 0.5%  
520 0.1% 0.5%  
521 0.1% 0.4%  
522 0% 0.3%  
523 0% 0.3%  
524 0% 0.3%  
525 0% 0.2%  
526 0% 0.2%  
527 0% 0.2%  
528 0% 0.1%  
529 0% 0.1%  
530 0% 0.1%  
531 0% 0.1%  
532 0% 0.1%  
533 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100% Last Result
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 99.9%  
423 0% 99.9%  
424 0% 99.9%  
425 0% 99.9%  
426 0% 99.8%  
427 0.1% 99.8%  
428 0% 99.8%  
429 0.1% 99.7%  
430 0.1% 99.7%  
431 0.1% 99.6%  
432 0.1% 99.5%  
433 0.1% 99.4%  
434 0.1% 99.3%  
435 0.2% 99.1%  
436 0.2% 98.9%  
437 0.3% 98.7%  
438 0.4% 98%  
439 0.4% 98%  
440 0.5% 98%  
441 0.6% 97%  
442 0.9% 97%  
443 1.0% 96%  
444 1.2% 95%  
445 1.3% 93%  
446 2% 92%  
447 2% 90%  
448 2% 89%  
449 2% 87%  
450 2% 85%  
451 2% 83%  
452 3% 80%  
453 2% 78%  
454 3% 76%  
455 2% 72%  
456 2% 71%  
457 2% 69%  
458 4% 67%  
459 2% 63%  
460 3% 61%  
461 3% 58%  
462 3% 55%  
463 2% 52%  
464 2% 50% Median
465 2% 47%  
466 2% 45%  
467 2% 43%  
468 1.4% 42%  
469 1.0% 40%  
470 0.6% 39%  
471 0.5% 39%  
472 0.7% 38%  
473 1.1% 37%  
474 1.1% 36%  
475 1.3% 35%  
476 2% 34%  
477 1.5% 32%  
478 2% 31%  
479 2% 29%  
480 1.2% 27%  
481 2% 26%  
482 1.1% 24%  
483 2% 23%  
484 2% 21%  
485 2% 19%  
486 2% 17%  
487 2% 15%  
488 0.8% 13%  
489 0.6% 12%  
490 0.9% 12%  
491 2% 11%  
492 1.5% 9%  
493 1.1% 7%  
494 1.5% 6%  
495 1.0% 5%  
496 0.5% 4%  
497 0.4% 3%  
498 0.3% 3%  
499 0.2% 2%  
500 0.3% 2%  
501 0.2% 2%  
502 0.2% 2%  
503 0.2% 1.5%  
504 0.4% 1.3%  
505 0.1% 1.0%  
506 0.2% 0.8%  
507 0.1% 0.7%  
508 0.1% 0.6%  
509 0.1% 0.5%  
510 0.1% 0.4%  
511 0.1% 0.3%  
512 0.1% 0.2%  
513 0.1% 0.2%  
514 0.1% 0.1%  
515 0% 0.1%  
516 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 99.9%  
385 0% 99.9%  
386 0% 99.9%  
387 0% 99.9%  
388 0% 99.9%  
389 0% 99.8%  
390 0% 99.8%  
391 0% 99.8%  
392 0.1% 99.7%  
393 0.1% 99.6%  
394 0.1% 99.6%  
395 0.1% 99.4%  
396 0.1% 99.3%  
397 0.2% 99.2%  
398 0.2% 99.0%  
399 0.3% 98.9%  
400 0.2% 98.6%  
401 0.3% 98%  
402 0.3% 98%  
403 0.5% 98%  
404 0.6% 97%  
405 0.7% 97%  
406 0.7% 96%  
407 0.8% 95%  
408 0.9% 94%  
409 1.2% 94%  
410 1.0% 92%  
411 2% 91%  
412 1.1% 90%  
413 2% 88%  
414 2% 86%  
415 2% 85%  
416 2% 83%  
417 2% 81%  
418 2% 79%  
419 2% 76%  
420 2% 75%  
421 3% 73%  
422 3% 70%  
423 2% 67%  
424 3% 65%  
425 1.4% 62%  
426 3% 61%  
427 2% 58%  
428 2% 55%  
429 2% 53%  
430 2% 51% Median
431 2% 49%  
432 1.5% 46%  
433 2% 45%  
434 1.1% 43%  
435 1.1% 42%  
436 1.3% 41%  
437 2% 40%  
438 1.1% 38%  
439 2% 37%  
440 0.8% 35%  
441 1.1% 34%  
442 1.3% 33%  
443 1.4% 32%  
444 1.5% 31%  
445 2% 29%  
446 1.0% 27%  
447 1.2% 26%  
448 2% 25%  
449 2% 23%  
450 1.3% 22%  
451 2% 21%  
452 2% 19%  
453 1.3% 17%  
454 1.4% 16%  
455 0.7% 14%  
456 1.3% 14%  
457 1.4% 12%  
458 1.3% 11%  
459 1.2% 9%  
460 1.1% 8%  
461 1.2% 7%  
462 0.5% 6%  
463 0.5% 5%  
464 0.5% 5%  
465 0.5% 4%  
466 0.7% 4%  
467 0.7% 3%  
468 0.4% 2%  
469 0.4% 2%  
470 0.4% 2%  
471 0.2% 1.3%  
472 0.1% 1.1%  
473 0.1% 1.0%  
474 0.1% 0.9%  
475 0.1% 0.8%  
476 0.1% 0.7%  
477 0.1% 0.6%  
478 0.1% 0.5%  
479 0.1% 0.4%  
480 0.1% 0.3%  
481 0.1% 0.3%  
482 0% 0.2%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0.1%  
487 0% 0.1%  
488 0% 0.1%  
489 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0% 99.9%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0% 99.8%  
98 0% 99.8%  
99 0% 99.8%  
100 0% 99.7%  
101 0% 99.7%  
102 0.1% 99.7%  
103 0.1% 99.6%  
104 0.1% 99.5%  
105 0.1% 99.5%  
106 0.1% 99.3%  
107 0.1% 99.3%  
108 0.1% 99.2%  
109 0.2% 99.1%  
110 0.1% 98.9%  
111 0.1% 98.8%  
112 0.3% 98.7%  
113 0.2% 98%  
114 0.4% 98%  
115 0.4% 98%  
116 0.4% 97%  
117 0.7% 97%  
118 0.5% 96%  
119 0.6% 96%  
120 0.6% 95%  
121 0.7% 95%  
122 0.7% 94%  
123 0.6% 93%  
124 0.6% 93%  
125 1.0% 92%  
126 1.0% 91%  
127 1.3% 90%  
128 0.9% 89%  
129 0.8% 88%  
130 0.9% 87%  
131 1.3% 86%  
132 0.9% 85%  
133 1.3% 84%  
134 1.1% 83%  
135 1.3% 82%  
136 1.2% 80%  
137 1.3% 79%  
138 1.2% 78%  
139 1.0% 77%  
140 1.1% 75%  
141 1.1% 74%  
142 1.4% 73%  
143 1.0% 72%  
144 2% 71%  
145 0.7% 69%  
146 1.0% 69%  
147 1.1% 68%  
148 1.2% 66%  
149 0.7% 65%  
150 1.3% 65%  
151 1.0% 63%  
152 1.2% 62%  
153 1.3% 61%  
154 2% 60%  
155 1.1% 58%  
156 1.5% 57%  
157 1.3% 56%  
158 2% 54%  
159 2% 52%  
160 2% 51% Median
161 3% 49%  
162 1.4% 46%  
163 1.4% 45%  
164 3% 44%  
165 2% 41%  
166 1.5% 39%  
167 3% 37%  
168 2% 35%  
169 2% 33%  
170 3% 31%  
171 2% 28%  
172 2% 27%  
173 2% 24%  
174 2% 23%  
175 3% 21%  
176 1.3% 18%  
177 2% 17%  
178 1.0% 15%  
179 2% 14%  
180 0.8% 13%  
181 1.1% 12%  
182 2% 11%  
183 1.0% 9%  
184 0.9% 8%  
185 0.8% 7%  
186 0.6% 6%  
187 0.7% 6%  
188 0.6% 5%  
189 0.6% 4%  
190 0.3% 4%  
191 0.4% 3%  
192 0.4% 3%  
193 0.3% 3%  
194 0.2% 2%  
195 0.3% 2%  
196 0.2% 2%  
197 0.2% 1.5%  
198 0.2% 1.3%  
199 0.2% 1.1%  
200 0.2% 1.0%  
201 0.1% 0.8%  
202 0.1% 0.7%  
203 0.1% 0.6%  
204 0.1% 0.5%  
205 0.1% 0.4%  
206 0.1% 0.4%  
207 0.1% 0.3%  
208 0% 0.2%  
209 0% 0.2%  
210 0% 0.2%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0.1%  
215 0% 0.1%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.8%  
113 0.1% 99.7%  
114 0.1% 99.6%  
115 0.1% 99.5%  
116 0.1% 99.4%  
117 0.2% 99.4%  
118 0.1% 99.2%  
119 0.3% 99.0%  
120 0.2% 98.7%  
121 0.1% 98%  
122 0.1% 98%  
123 0.4% 98%  
124 0.1% 98%  
125 0.3% 98%  
126 0.3% 97%  
127 0.4% 97%  
128 0.7% 97%  
129 2% 96%  
130 0.8% 94%  
131 0.8% 93%  
132 1.4% 93%  
133 2% 91%  
134 0.6% 89%  
135 0.4% 88%  
136 0.5% 88%  
137 1.0% 87%  
138 2% 86%  
139 2% 84%  
140 1.3% 82%  
141 1.5% 81%  
142 1.5% 79%  
143 2% 78%  
144 1.0% 75%  
145 2% 74%  
146 1.5% 73%  
147 2% 71%  
148 2% 69%  
149 1.3% 67%  
150 1.4% 66%  
151 1.0% 64%  
152 1.0% 63%  
153 0.9% 62%  
154 0.3% 61%  
155 0.6% 61%  
156 1.1% 61%  
157 2% 59%  
158 2% 58%  
159 2% 56%  
160 2% 54%  
161 2% 52%  
162 2% 50% Median
163 3% 48%  
164 4% 45%  
165 3% 42%  
166 3% 39%  
167 2% 36%  
168 2% 33%  
169 2% 31%  
170 1.5% 29%  
171 2% 28%  
172 3% 25%  
173 2% 22%  
174 2% 20%  
175 3% 18%  
176 2% 16%  
177 2% 14%  
178 2% 12%  
179 1.5% 10%  
180 2% 9%  
181 1.4% 7%  
182 1.0% 5%  
183 0.8% 4%  
184 0.8% 3%  
185 0.5% 3%  
186 0.5% 2%  
187 0.3% 2%  
188 0.2% 1.4%  
189 0.3% 1.2%  
190 0.1% 0.9%  
191 0.1% 0.8%  
192 0.1% 0.7%  
193 0.1% 0.6%  
194 0.1% 0.5%  
195 0.1% 0.4%  
196 0% 0.3%  
197 0.1% 0.3%  
198 0% 0.2%  
199 0% 0.2%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 99.9%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0% 99.8%  
69 0.1% 99.8%  
70 0% 99.7%  
71 0.1% 99.7%  
72 0.1% 99.6%  
73 0.1% 99.5%  
74 0.1% 99.5%  
75 0% 99.4%  
76 0.1% 99.3%  
77 0.1% 99.2%  
78 0.3% 99.1%  
79 0.2% 98.9%  
80 0.2% 98.7%  
81 0.2% 98%  
82 0.2% 98%  
83 0.7% 98%  
84 0.4% 97%  
85 0.2% 97%  
86 0.3% 97%  
87 0.6% 96%  
88 0.3% 96%  
89 0.7% 96%  
90 0.7% 95%  
91 1.2% 94%  
92 1.2% 93%  
93 1.0% 92%  
94 0.8% 91%  
95 0.7% 90%  
96 1.4% 89%  
97 0.9% 88%  
98 1.0% 87%  
99 1.3% 86%  
100 1.2% 84%  
101 1.3% 83%  
102 1.4% 82%  
103 1.2% 80%  
104 1.4% 79%  
105 1.1% 78%  
106 1.2% 77%  
107 1.1% 75%  
108 1.4% 74%  
109 1.2% 73%  
110 2% 72%  
111 1.4% 70%  
112 1.0% 68%  
113 0.9% 67%  
114 1.1% 67%  
115 1.2% 65%  
116 0.8% 64%  
117 0.8% 63%  
118 0.6% 63%  
119 1.2% 62%  
120 1.4% 61%  
121 2% 60%  
122 2% 58%  
123 1.0% 56%  
124 1.5% 55%  
125 2% 53%  
126 2% 51% Median
127 2% 49%  
128 2% 47%  
129 3% 46%  
130 2% 43%  
131 2% 41%  
132 3% 40%  
133 3% 37%  
134 2% 35%  
135 2% 32%  
136 2% 30%  
137 2% 28%  
138 3% 26%  
139 2% 23%  
140 2% 21%  
141 1.2% 19%  
142 2% 17%  
143 1.4% 16%  
144 2% 14%  
145 2% 13%  
146 2% 11%  
147 1.3% 9%  
148 1.0% 8%  
149 0.9% 7%  
150 0.8% 6%  
151 0.9% 5%  
152 0.5% 5%  
153 0.6% 4%  
154 0.4% 3%  
155 0.4% 3%  
156 0.4% 3%  
157 0.3% 2%  
158 0.3% 2%  
159 0.3% 2%  
160 0.2% 1.4%  
161 0.1% 1.1%  
162 0.1% 1.0%  
163 0.1% 0.8%  
164 0.2% 0.7%  
165 0.1% 0.6%  
166 0.1% 0.5%  
167 0.1% 0.4%  
168 0% 0.3%  
169 0.1% 0.3%  
170 0% 0.2%  
171 0% 0.2%  
172 0.1% 0.2%  
173 0% 0.1%  
174 0% 0.1%  
175 0% 0.1%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations